首页 > 最新文献

Pressacademia最新文献

英文 中文
Turkiye as a regional hub 土耳其作为地区枢纽
Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1866
Dilek Teker, Suat Teker, Irmak Orman
Purpose- This study examines Türkiye's strategic importance and potential to serve as a pivotal regional hub for businesses. The study also investigates the various fields of businesses for being a potential hub. A review of common concerns that needs further developments are analysed.Methodology- The study utilizes an analytical literature survey and investigates the various business fields for becoming a regional hub.Findings- Turkiye is the 7th largest economy by GDP in Europe by IMF among 22 countries for the year 2022. Turkiye is ranked as the 1st in ease of setting and welcoming categories at Expat Explorer Index, and 7th in the world in the year 2019. More, Turkish international airports serve for 342 direct flights for 128 countries with Turkish Airlines and proximity to these markets with a total GDP of 46 trillion USD within 4 hours flight.Conclusion- Turkiye's unique geographical position bridges Europe and Asia providing a natural gateway between the East and the West. Proximity to major markets enhances its appeal as a strategic center for trade and commerce. Ongoing investments in infrastructure, including transportation networks and logistics facilities, are positioning Türkiye as a key hub for the efficient movement of goods and services. Modern ports, airports, and road networks facilitate seamless connectivity within the region. Türkiye's growing economy attracts foreign investments, fostering the development of financial services and encouraging multinational companies to establish regional headquartersKeywords: Regional hub, Istanbul Finance Center, strategic location, logistics hub, service hub.JEL Codes: F10, F18, M20
目的-- 本研究探讨了土耳其作为地区枢纽企业的战略重要性和潜力。本研究还调查了成为潜在枢纽的各个商业领域。研究结果-- 根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)对 22 个国家 2022 年国内生产总值的预测,土耳其是欧洲第七大经济体。在 "外籍人士探索者指数"(Expat Explorer Index)中,土耳其在环境便利性和欢迎程度方面排名第一,2019 年在全球排名第七。此外,土耳其国际机场与土耳其航空公司合作,为128个国家提供342个直飞航班服务,并与这些国内生产总值达46万亿美元的市场相距仅4小时航程。毗邻主要市场增强了其作为贸易和商业战略中心的吸引力。对交通网络和物流设施等基础设施的持续投资,使土耳其成为货物和服务高效流动的重要枢纽。现代化的港口、机场和公路网络促进了区域内的无缝连接。土耳其不断增长的经济吸引了外国投资,促进了金融服务的发展,并鼓励跨国公司设立地区总部Keywords:地区枢纽、伊斯坦布尔金融中心、战略位置、物流枢纽、服务枢纽:F10, F18, M20
{"title":"Turkiye as a regional hub","authors":"Dilek Teker, Suat Teker, Irmak Orman","doi":"10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1866","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1866","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose- This study examines Türkiye's strategic importance and potential to serve as a pivotal regional hub for businesses. The study also investigates the various fields of businesses for being a potential hub. A review of common concerns that needs further developments are analysed.\u0000Methodology- The study utilizes an analytical literature survey and investigates the various business fields for becoming a regional hub.\u0000Findings- Turkiye is the 7th largest economy by GDP in Europe by IMF among 22 countries for the year 2022. Turkiye is ranked as the 1st in ease of setting and welcoming categories at Expat Explorer Index, and 7th in the world in the year 2019. More, Turkish international airports serve for 342 direct flights for 128 countries with Turkish Airlines and proximity to these markets with a total GDP of 46 trillion USD within 4 hours flight.\u0000Conclusion- Turkiye's unique geographical position bridges Europe and Asia providing a natural gateway between the East and the West. Proximity to major markets enhances its appeal as a strategic center for trade and commerce. Ongoing investments in infrastructure, including transportation networks and logistics facilities, are positioning Türkiye as a key hub for the efficient movement of goods and services. Modern ports, airports, and road networks facilitate seamless connectivity within the region. Türkiye's growing economy attracts foreign investments, fostering the development of financial services and encouraging multinational companies to establish regional headquarters\u0000\u0000Keywords: Regional hub, Istanbul Finance Center, strategic location, logistics hub, service hub.\u0000JEL Codes: F10, F18, M20\u0000","PeriodicalId":517141,"journal":{"name":"Pressacademia","volume":"85 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139896895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Innovative transformation in finance: global and Turkish perspectives on crowdfunding 金融业的创新转型:全球和土耳其对众筹的看法
Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1879
Askim Nurdan Tumbek Tekeoglu, R. A. Kucukcolak, N. I. Kucukcolak
Purpose- The purpose of this article is to explore and analyze the transformative impact of crowdfunding, with a specific focus on the reward-based Fongogo crowdfunding platform in Turkey. The study aims to understand how crowdfunding disrupts traditional financing models, fosters collaboration and innovation, and contributes to financial inclusion for small businesses and startups. Additionally, the purpose involves comparing the project results of Fongogo with international examples to provide insights into Turkey's crowdfunding landscape. Methodology- The study employs a case study approach, focusing on the reward-based crowdfunding platform Fongogo. Data is collected and analyzed from the Fongogo platform in Turkey to gain insights into supporter dynamics, project success, and regional influences. Comparative analysis is conducted by comparing Fongogo's results with international crowdfunding examples. Additionally, literature on crowdfunding is reviewed to identify key success factors, such as project presentation, category, funding type, location, and team sizeFindings- The findings of the study reveal the diverse models and advantages of crowdfunding, emphasizing its transformative potential in the financial sector. Insights from Fongogo data shed light on supporter dynamics, the impact of project location, and the influence of technological literacy on crowdfunding success in Turkey. The comparative analysis with international examples provides a broader perspective on crowdfunding success factors, highlighting areas where Turkey's crowdfunding potential can be enhanced.Conclusion- In conclusion, the study advocates for the strategic positioning of crowdfunding as a vital financial tool in Turkey. The findings underscore the importance of user-friendly platforms, transparent operations, and effective communication by project owners. The impact of the new Crowdfunding Regulation in Turkey is discussed, acknowledging the need for further assessment as its implementation progresses. The study encourages leveraging the lessons learned from successful projects, both locally and internationally, to guide new initiatives and strengthen Turkey's crowdfunding ecosystem. Ultimately, the article aims to contribute insights to researchers, policymakers, and practitioners interested in the dynamic landscape of crowdfunding in Turkey and beyond.Keywords: Financial inclusion, reward-based crowdfunding, financial innovation, digital platforms JEL Codes: G23, L26, M13, O16, O35
目的--本文旨在探索和分析众筹的变革性影响,特别关注土耳其基于奖励的 Fongogo 众筹平台。研究旨在了解众筹如何颠覆传统融资模式,促进合作与创新,并为小企业和初创企业的金融包容性做出贡献。此外,本研究还将 Fongogo 的项目成果与国际范例进行比较,以深入了解土耳其的众筹情况。研究方法--本研究采用案例研究法,重点关注基于奖励的众筹平台 Fongogo。通过收集和分析土耳其 Fongogo 平台的数据,深入了解支持者的动态、项目的成功以及地区影响因素。通过将 Fongogo 的结果与国际众筹实例进行比较分析。此外,研究人员还查阅了有关众筹的文献,以确定成功的关键因素,如项目介绍、类别、资金类型、地点和团队规模。来自 Fongogo 数据的见解揭示了支持者的动态、项目地点的影响以及技术知识对土耳其众筹成功的影响。与国际范例的比较分析为众筹的成功因素提供了更广阔的视角,突出了土耳其众筹潜力可以提升的领域。研究结果强调了用户友好型平台、透明运营和项目所有者有效沟通的重要性。研究还讨论了新的《土耳其众筹条例》的影响,承认随着该条例的实施,有必要对其进行进一步评估。该研究鼓励利用从本地和国际成功项目中吸取的经验教训来指导新举措,并加强土耳其的众筹生态系统。最终,文章旨在为研究人员、政策制定者以及对土耳其及其他地区众筹动态景观感兴趣的从业人员提供真知灼见:金融包容性、基于奖励的众筹、金融创新、数字平台 JEL Codes:G23, L26, M13, O16, O35
{"title":"Innovative transformation in finance: global and Turkish perspectives on crowdfunding","authors":"Askim Nurdan Tumbek Tekeoglu, R. A. Kucukcolak, N. I. Kucukcolak","doi":"10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1879","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1879","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose- The purpose of this article is to explore and analyze the transformative impact of crowdfunding, with a specific focus on the reward-based Fongogo crowdfunding platform in Turkey. The study aims to understand how crowdfunding disrupts traditional financing models, fosters collaboration and innovation, and contributes to financial inclusion for small businesses and startups. Additionally, the purpose involves comparing the project results of Fongogo with international examples to provide insights into Turkey's crowdfunding landscape. \u0000Methodology- The study employs a case study approach, focusing on the reward-based crowdfunding platform Fongogo. Data is collected and analyzed from the Fongogo platform in Turkey to gain insights into supporter dynamics, project success, and regional influences. Comparative analysis is conducted by comparing Fongogo's results with international crowdfunding examples. Additionally, literature on crowdfunding is reviewed to identify key success factors, such as project presentation, category, funding type, location, and team size\u0000Findings- The findings of the study reveal the diverse models and advantages of crowdfunding, emphasizing its transformative potential in the financial sector. Insights from Fongogo data shed light on supporter dynamics, the impact of project location, and the influence of technological literacy on crowdfunding success in Turkey. The comparative analysis with international examples provides a broader perspective on crowdfunding success factors, highlighting areas where Turkey's crowdfunding potential can be enhanced.\u0000Conclusion- In conclusion, the study advocates for the strategic positioning of crowdfunding as a vital financial tool in Turkey. The findings underscore the importance of user-friendly platforms, transparent operations, and effective communication by project owners. The impact of the new Crowdfunding Regulation in Turkey is discussed, acknowledging the need for further assessment as its implementation progresses. The study encourages leveraging the lessons learned from successful projects, both locally and internationally, to guide new initiatives and strengthen Turkey's crowdfunding ecosystem. Ultimately, the article aims to contribute insights to researchers, policymakers, and practitioners interested in the dynamic landscape of crowdfunding in Turkey and beyond.\u0000\u0000Keywords: Financial inclusion, reward-based crowdfunding, financial innovation, digital platforms \u0000JEL Codes: G23, L26, M13, O16, O35\u0000","PeriodicalId":517141,"journal":{"name":"Pressacademia","volume":"18 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139893850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Determinants of bank credit in Jordan and Palestine: a comparative analysis 约旦和巴勒斯坦银行信贷的决定因素:比较分析
Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1856
Ruba Dirani, Mohammad Khataibeh, Ghassan Omet
Purpose- This paper analyzes the determinants of the annual changes in conventional banks’ credit in Jordan and Palestine. In addition, the paper examines whether the differences in the determinants of bank credit in both economies are due to country or bank-specific factors. As one might expect, the argument behind this paper rests on the fact that the Israeli occupation of Palestine makes the political and economic environments of the two countries very different.Methodology- A panel of data of all thirteen (13) Jordanian conventional banks and 12 Palestinian conventional banks are used in the econometric analyses (2010 – 2021). For each set of banks, the annual percentage changes in credit are regresed on the percentage annual change in bank deposits, equity is equity capital, bank size, and bank income diversification level. Following this exercise, the differences in of both sets of coefficients are examined using the F-test. If different, one can argue that the difference can be due to the differential effects of either bank-level differences or country-level differences. To examine this issue, we re-estimate tha main model by controlling for the presence of fixed effects in the bank credit relationship and re-estimate the F-test. If the F test is significant, this implies that the differences in the magnitude of the relationshisp are due to country factors and not to bank-specific factors.Findings- Based on the estimated results, several interesting observations are noted. First, there are differences in the determinants of the annual change in bank credit between banks in Jordan and in Palestinian in terms of the signs of the independent variables and their values. Second, the significant differences in the determinants of the annual change in bank credit between banks in Jordan and in Palestinian are due to country-specific factors and not the bank-specific factors. Finally, given the differences in the political and economic environments in which banks in Jordan and Palestine operate, one should not be surprised of the main finding of this thesis.Conclusion- It would be informative to examine the performance of both sets of banks in terms of other issue including the determinants of cost of intermediation, stability, bank discipline, and bank competition.Keywords: Jordan, Palestine, banks, credit growth, equity capital, seemingly-unrelated regression.JEL Codes: G20, G21, G24
本文分析了约旦和巴勒斯坦常规银行信贷年度变化的决定因素。此外,本文还研究了这两个经济体银行信贷决定因素的差异是由国家因素还是银行特有因素造成的。正如人们所预料的那样,本文的论点是基于以色列对巴勒斯坦的占领使得两国的政治和经济环境大不相同这一事实。对于每一组银行,信贷的年度百分比变化与银行存款的年度百分比变化、股本、银行规模和银行收入多样化水平进行回归。之后,使用 F 检验法检验两组系数的差异。如果存在差异,则可以认为差异可能是由于银行层面的差异或国家层面的差异造成的。为了检验这个问题,我们通过控制银行信贷关系中固定效应的存在来重新估计主模型,并重新进行 F 检验。如果 F 检验是显著的,这就意味着这种关系大小的差异是由国家因素而非银行特定因素造成的。首先,约旦银行和巴勒斯坦银行的银行信贷年度变化的决定因素在自变量的符号和数值方面存在差异。其次,约旦银行和巴勒斯坦银行在银行信贷年度变化决定因素上的显著差异是由特定国家因素而非特定银行因素造成的。最后,鉴于约旦和巴勒斯坦银行所处的政治和经济环境不同,我们不应对本论文的主要结论感到惊讶。结论--从其他问题(包括中介成本的决定因素、稳定性、银行纪律和银行竞争)的角度来研究这两组银行的表现将会很有启发:约旦、巴勒斯坦、银行、信贷增长、股权资本、似非相关回归:G20, G21, G24
{"title":"Determinants of bank credit in Jordan and Palestine: a comparative analysis","authors":"Ruba Dirani, Mohammad Khataibeh, Ghassan Omet","doi":"10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1856","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1856","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose- This paper analyzes the determinants of the annual changes in conventional banks’ credit in Jordan and Palestine. In addition, the paper examines whether the differences in the determinants of bank credit in both economies are due to country or bank-specific factors. As one might expect, the argument behind this paper rests on the fact that the Israeli occupation of Palestine makes the political and economic environments of the two countries very different.\u0000Methodology- A panel of data of all thirteen (13) Jordanian conventional banks and 12 Palestinian conventional banks are used in the econometric analyses (2010 – 2021). For each set of banks, the annual percentage changes in credit are regresed on the percentage annual change in bank deposits, equity is equity capital, bank size, and bank income diversification level. Following this exercise, the differences in of both sets of coefficients are examined using the F-test. If different, one can argue that the difference can be due to the differential effects of either bank-level differences or country-level differences. To examine this issue, we re-estimate tha main model by controlling for the presence of fixed effects in the bank credit relationship and re-estimate the F-test. If the F test is significant, this implies that the differences in the magnitude of the relationshisp are due to country factors and not to bank-specific factors.\u0000Findings- Based on the estimated results, several interesting observations are noted. First, there are differences in the determinants of the annual change in bank credit between banks in Jordan and in Palestinian in terms of the signs of the independent variables and their values. Second, the significant differences in the determinants of the annual change in bank credit between banks in Jordan and in Palestinian are due to country-specific factors and not the bank-specific factors. Finally, given the differences in the political and economic environments in which banks in Jordan and Palestine operate, one should not be surprised of the main finding of this thesis.\u0000Conclusion- It would be informative to examine the performance of both sets of banks in terms of other issue including the determinants of cost of intermediation, stability, bank discipline, and bank competition.\u0000\u0000Keywords: Jordan, Palestine, banks, credit growth, equity capital, seemingly-unrelated regression.\u0000JEL Codes: G20, G21, G24\u0000","PeriodicalId":517141,"journal":{"name":"Pressacademia","volume":"246 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139894162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effects of policy rate announcements on the exchange rates 政策利率公告对汇率的影响
Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1857
Suat Teker, Dilek Teker, Esin Demirel Gumustepe
Purpose- Exchange rate is the value of a country's national currency against foreign national currencies. In this context, the exchange rate is considered an important macroeconomic indicator in evaluating the country's economy. The failure to control the exchange rate may damage economy significantly. It is possible to understand this from the 2001 crisis in Turkey, known as 'Black Wednesday', and the foreign exchange crisis that started in Thailand in 1997 and affected many East Asian countries. Interest rate is one of the critical determinants affecting the exchange rates. Therefore, changes in interest rates are expected to affect the level of exchange rates. When there is an increase in interest rates, foreign capital flow is expected for that particular country. Hence, a decrease in exchange rates is expected for the excess capital flows. This study aims to analyze the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates, considering the last 10 announcements of the interest policy of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye. These announcements are between January 19, 2023 and October 26, 2023. The study used the TL/USD exchange rates and 10-year government bond interest rates to measure the relationship in between these two variables.Methodology-The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between the dollar exchange rate and government bond interest rates for Turkiye. For this purpose, data is collected for the days when the last 10 policy rates published by the CBRT were announced. Data is obtained investing.com. Vector Autoregression (VAR) is used to measure the relationship in between two variables. The VAR system is based on empirical regularities embedded in the data. The VAR model may be viewed as a system of reduced form equations in which each of the endogenous variables is regressed on its own lagged values and the lagged values of all other variables in the system. Vector Autoregressive models are widely used in time series research to examine the dynamic relationships exist in between variables that interact with one another. In addition, VAR models are viable forecasting tools used often by macroeconomic or policy-making institutions. . In this study first, the stationary levels of the variables are determined by using Unit Root Test. Second, pre-tests of autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and normality are conducted for the validity of the VAR model. Third, the short-term relationship between variables is tested by using VAR Granger Causality Test. Fourth, VAR analysis is utilized by applying Impulse-Response Analysis and Variance Decomposition Analysis . And finally, the long-term relationship between variables is tested by using Johansen Cointegration Test. Vector Autoregressionmodel is employed in this study.Findings- According to the results of Granger Causality test, government bond interest rates strongly affect the changes of exchange rate. However, there is no causality from exhange rates to interest
目的--汇率是指一国本国货币对外国本国货币的价值。在这种情况下,汇率被视为评估国家经济的重要宏观经济指标。如果不能控制汇率,经济就会受到严重损害。从 2001 年土耳其发生的被称为 "黑色星期三 "的危机,以及 1997 年始于泰国并影响到许多东亚国家的外汇危机,我们就可以明白这一点。利率是影响汇率的重要决定因素之一。因此,利率的变化会影响汇率水平。当利率上升时,预计外国资本将流向该特定国家。因此,预计过量资本流动会导致汇率下降。本研究旨在分析汇率与利率之间的关系,考虑了土耳其共和国中央银行最近 10 次公布的利率政策。这些公告发布于 2023 年 1 月 19 日至 2023 年 10 月 26 日之间。本研究使用土耳其里拉/美元汇率和 10 年期政府债券利率来衡量这两个变量之间的关系。方法-本研究的目的是分析土耳其的美元汇率和政府债券利率之间的关系。为此,收集了土耳其中央银行公布的最近 10 次政策利率的数据。数据来源于 investing.com。向量自回归(VAR)用于衡量两个变量之间的关系。VAR 系统基于数据中蕴含的经验规律性。VAR 模型可视为一个简化方程系统,其中每个内生变量都对其自身的滞后值和系统中所有其他变量的滞后值进行回归。向量自回归模型被广泛应用于时间序列研究,以检验变量之间存在的动态关系。此外,向量自回归模型还是宏观经济或决策机构经常使用的可行预测工具。.在本研究中,首先通过单位根检验确定变量的静态水平。其次,对自相关性、异方差性和正态性进行预检验,以确保 VAR 模型的有效性。第三,使用 VAR 格兰杰因果检验法检验变量之间的短期关系。第四,利用脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析进行 VAR 分析。最后,利用约翰森协整检验法检验变量之间的长期关系。研究结果--根据格兰杰因果检验的结果,政府债券利率对汇率变动有很大影响。然而,汇率与利率之间不存在因果关系。因此,利率变化是短期内汇率变动的主要决定因素。脉冲响应检验的结果表明,政府债券利率的意外冲击(意外上升)会影响汇率,并使汇率大幅上升。而且,汇率的意外上升会导致政府债券利率的上升。方差分解检验的结果表明,第一期汇率方差变化的 50%是由债券利息变化解释的,而债券利率方差变化的 30%是由汇率变动解释的。Johansen协整检验的结果支持美元汇率与政府债券利率之间存在长期稳定的关系。结论--本研究主要关注土耳其中央银行最近 10 次政策利率公告中政府债券利率与美元汇率之间的关系。总之,债券利率的变化对汇率变化的影响更大。为此,我们收集了土耳其中央银行发布最近 10 次政策利率的天数数据。两个变量之间的关联使用向量自回归(VAR)来衡量。总体结果显示,债券利率的变化对汇率变化的影响更大:政策利率、汇率、利率、土耳其、格兰杰因果关系、VAR 模型JEL Codes:E40, E50, C10, C58
{"title":"The effects of policy rate announcements on the exchange rates","authors":"Suat Teker, Dilek Teker, Esin Demirel Gumustepe","doi":"10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1857","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1857","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose- Exchange rate is the value of a country's national currency against foreign national currencies. In this context, the exchange rate is considered an important macroeconomic indicator in evaluating the country's economy. The failure to control the exchange rate may damage economy significantly. It is possible to understand this from the 2001 crisis in Turkey, known as 'Black Wednesday', and the foreign exchange crisis that started in Thailand in 1997 and affected many East Asian countries. Interest rate is one of the critical determinants affecting the exchange rates. Therefore, changes in interest rates are expected to affect the level of exchange rates. When there is an increase in interest rates, foreign capital flow is expected for that particular country. Hence, a decrease in exchange rates is expected for the excess capital flows. This study aims to analyze the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates, considering the last 10 announcements of the interest policy of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye. These announcements are between January 19, 2023 and October 26, 2023. The study used the TL/USD exchange rates and 10-year government bond interest rates to measure the relationship in between these two variables.\u0000Methodology-The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between the dollar exchange rate and government bond interest rates for Turkiye. For this purpose, data is collected for the days when the last 10 policy rates published by the CBRT were announced. Data is obtained investing.com. Vector Autoregression (VAR) is used to measure the relationship in between two variables. The VAR system is based on empirical regularities embedded in the data. The VAR model may be viewed as a system of reduced form equations in which each of the endogenous variables is regressed on its own lagged values and the lagged values of all other variables in the system. Vector Autoregressive models are widely used in time series research to examine the dynamic relationships exist in between variables that interact with one another. In addition, VAR models are viable forecasting tools used often by macroeconomic or policy-making institutions. . In this study first, the stationary levels of the variables are determined by using Unit Root Test. Second, pre-tests of autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and normality are conducted for the validity of the VAR model. Third, the short-term relationship between variables is tested by using VAR Granger Causality Test. Fourth, VAR analysis is utilized by applying Impulse-Response Analysis and Variance Decomposition Analysis . And finally, the long-term relationship between variables is tested by using Johansen Cointegration Test. Vector Autoregressionmodel is employed in this study.\u0000Findings- According to the results of Granger Causality test, government bond interest rates strongly affect the changes of exchange rate. However, there is no causality from exhange rates to interest ","PeriodicalId":517141,"journal":{"name":"Pressacademia","volume":"89 1-3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139897023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The relationship between money supply and inflation: analysis with PANELVAR approach 货币供应量与通货膨胀之间的关系:用 PANELVAR 方法进行分析
Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1855
Esengul Ozdemir Altinisik, Basak Taninmis Yucememis
Purpose- Central banks serve as institutions responsible for executing monetary policy in countries, with the primary objective of managing the money supply and ensuring price stability in the economy. These institutions formulate and implement monetary policies, controlling interest rates, maintaining price stability, managing exchange rates, and overseeing the banking sector. Through the use of both traditional and modern tools, such as policy interest rates, reserve requirements, rediscount policies, and open market operations, central banks aim to uphold stability in the economy and financial system. The economic literature extensively explores the theoretical and empirical effects of central banks' expansive and contractionary policies on inflation. This study specifically investigates the practices of selected country central banks regarding monetary policy, with a focus on understanding the relationship between money supply and inflation. The objective is to unveil the impacts of these policies on countries' macroeconomic variables and identify determinants influencing the selection of effective policies and tools in central banks' pursuit of price stability-oriented monetary policy practices.Methodology- One of the tools central banks employ to intervene in the market is the manipulation of the money supply, influencing macroeconomic variables through expansive and contractionary policies. This study analyzes the impact of central banks' monetary policies using PanelVAR analysis for the period 2005–2022. The initial model features inflation as the dependent variable, while independent variables include money supply, policy interest rates, growth, current account deficit, budget deficit, and unemployment. These variables are modeled as annual percentage changes, with the money supply variable included as a level value after logarithmic transformation. Subsequent models are constructed with each independent variable as the dependent variable, adhering to the assumptions of VAR models. To address the stationarity condition of unit roots, cross-sectional dependencies in panel data series are tested. Following the identification of cross-sectional dependency issues, second-generation unit root tests are applied. After stationary analyses, VAR analysis is conducted, cointegration vectors are identified, and error correction models are established for further analysis. Finally, impact response analysis determines the size of the effects of the macroeconomic variables used in the analysis, and Granger causality analysis is applied to ascertain the direction of causality.Findings- In the model for controlling the money supply, the alternative hypothesis is accepted, supporting a statistically significant relationship or a cause-and-effect relationship among policy interest rate, growth, inflation, unemployment rate, current account deficit, and budget deficit variables. In the analysis where inflation is the dependent variable, long-term cointeg
长期失控的通胀问题可能导致长期问题。因此,通过政策利率平衡货币供应量的影响至关重要。根据经济理论,建议政策制定者和经济学家在后凯恩斯主义观点的假设下实施货币政策,该观点认为货币供应量是维持经济稳定和控制通货膨胀的内在因素。考虑到通货膨胀与货币供应量之间的双向因果关系,强调结构性因素是控制价格变化的关键,而仅仅依靠货币供应量可能不是有效的工具。因此,在此框架内,建议采用结构性方法:货币供应量、通货膨胀、货币政策、中央银行、面板变量:E51, E52, E31, C32
{"title":"The relationship between money supply and inflation: analysis with PANELVAR approach","authors":"Esengul Ozdemir Altinisik, Basak Taninmis Yucememis","doi":"10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1855","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1855","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose- Central banks serve as institutions responsible for executing monetary policy in countries, with the primary objective of managing the money supply and ensuring price stability in the economy. These institutions formulate and implement monetary policies, controlling interest rates, maintaining price stability, managing exchange rates, and overseeing the banking sector. Through the use of both traditional and modern tools, such as policy interest rates, reserve requirements, rediscount policies, and open market operations, central banks aim to uphold stability in the economy and financial system. The economic literature extensively explores the theoretical and empirical effects of central banks' expansive and contractionary policies on inflation. This study specifically investigates the practices of selected country central banks regarding monetary policy, with a focus on understanding the relationship between money supply and inflation. The objective is to unveil the impacts of these policies on countries' macroeconomic variables and identify determinants influencing the selection of effective policies and tools in central banks' pursuit of price stability-oriented monetary policy practices.\u0000Methodology- One of the tools central banks employ to intervene in the market is the manipulation of the money supply, influencing macroeconomic variables through expansive and contractionary policies. This study analyzes the impact of central banks' monetary policies using PanelVAR analysis for the period 2005–2022. The initial model features inflation as the dependent variable, while independent variables include money supply, policy interest rates, growth, current account deficit, budget deficit, and unemployment. These variables are modeled as annual percentage changes, with the money supply variable included as a level value after logarithmic transformation. Subsequent models are constructed with each independent variable as the dependent variable, adhering to the assumptions of VAR models. To address the stationarity condition of unit roots, cross-sectional dependencies in panel data series are tested. Following the identification of cross-sectional dependency issues, second-generation unit root tests are applied. After stationary analyses, VAR analysis is conducted, cointegration vectors are identified, and error correction models are established for further analysis. Finally, impact response analysis determines the size of the effects of the macroeconomic variables used in the analysis, and Granger causality analysis is applied to ascertain the direction of causality.\u0000Findings- In the model for controlling the money supply, the alternative hypothesis is accepted, supporting a statistically significant relationship or a cause-and-effect relationship among policy interest rate, growth, inflation, unemployment rate, current account deficit, and budget deficit variables. In the analysis where inflation is the dependent variable, long-term cointeg","PeriodicalId":517141,"journal":{"name":"Pressacademia","volume":"8 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139897256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reinforcement learning in individual pension system: the case of Turkey 个人养老金制度中的强化学习:土耳其案例
Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1873
Yunis Dede, Sadettin Haluk Çitçi, H. Yanıkkaya
Purpose- How individuals make saving/investment decisions and they are subject to learning processes are important questions in economics. Behavioral economics and finance literature tell us that individuals can deviate from bayesian decisions and the personal experiences can be effective in decision making. “Reinforcement learning” provides a framework for individual investors who are weighing on strategies successful and avoid strategies unsuccessful in which they experience. In this study, we investigate the effect of past experiences on individuals' retirement savings/investment decisions and whether individual investors are reinforcement learner. For this purpose, we examine individual contracts in the annual micro panel dataset obtained from the Pension Monitoring Center in Individual Pension System in Turkey.Methodology- Essentially, we assume that individuals' retirement saving/investment decisions are influenced by returns and variances (represents the risk level) of their avaliable portfolio as well as their time horizon, spending habits, retirement goals, risk tolerance and demographic characteristics. In this context, we estimate a linear model by including returns and variances in order to investigate how much sensitive individual investors are to returns and variances of their portfolio. Moreover, we add lagged returns and variances to our econometric setup to examine whether they are reinforcement learner. After that, we conduct a before-after analysis by looking at the dataset from 3-year window to analyze the impact of the 2013 state subsidy reform on reinforcement learning of individual investors.Findings- Similar to individuals' age, gender and education level, portfolio returns and variances also have a statistically significant effect on the contributions paid. Increases in portfolio returns affect the contributions paid positively, while increases in portfolio variance affect it negatively. As an indicator of reinforcement learning, respectively, lagged returns and variances have a significant positive and negative effect like the same year returns and variances of individual investors. According to this result, individual investors weigh on successful strategies and avoid unsuccessful strategies they have experienced. Increases in variances and lagged variances of individuals' portfolios have a larger negative effect compared to returns. Additionally, looking at the 3-year window, we report that the reinforcement learning of individual investors has strengthened after the 2013 state subsidy reform.Conclusion- We show that individual investors in IPS in Turkey exhibit reinforcement learning when making retirement savings/investment decisions. High return or low variance obtained in previous periods causes individuals to pay more contributions paid in the next period. This result reveals that individuals benefit from their past experiences when making logical and optimized decisions based on their avaliable knowledge and e
目的-- 个人如何做出储蓄/投资决策以及这些决策受制于学习过程是经济学中的重要问题。行为经济学和金融学文献告诉我们,个人可能会偏离贝叶斯决策,个人经历在决策中可能很有效。"强化学习 "为个人投资者提供了一个框架,他们可以根据自己的经验权衡成功的策略,避免失败的策略。在本研究中,我们调查了过去的经验对个人退休储蓄/投资决策的影响,以及个人投资者是否是强化学习者。为此,我们研究了从土耳其个人养老金系统养老金监控中心获得的年度微观面板数据集中的个人合同。方法--从根本上说,我们假定个人的退休储蓄/投资决策受到其可用投资组合的收益和方差(代表风险水平)以及其时间跨度、消费习惯、退休目标、风险承受能力和人口特征的影响。在这种情况下,我们估计了一个包含收益和方差的线性模型,以研究个人投资者对其投资组合的收益和方差的敏感程度。此外,我们还在计量经济学设置中加入了滞后收益和方差,以考察它们是否具有强化学习能力。之后,我们通过三年的数据集进行前后分析,以分析 2013 年国家补贴改革对个人投资者强化学习的影响。投资组合回报率的增加对缴款额有正向影响,而投资组合方差的增加对缴款额有负向影响。作为强化学习的指标,滞后收益率和方差与个人投资者的同年收益率和方差一样,分别具有显著的正效应和负效应。根据这一结果,个人投资者会权衡成功的策略,回避他们经历过的不成功的策略。与收益率相比,个人投资组合的方差和滞后方差的增加具有更大的负面影响。结论--我们的研究表明,土耳其 IPS 中的个人投资者在做出退休储蓄/投资决策时表现出强化学习。前一期获得的高回报或低方差会导致个人在下一期支付更多的缴款。这一结果表明,个人在根据现有知识和预期做出合乎逻辑的优化决策时,会从过去的经验中获益。2013 年 25% 的国家补贴导致个人投资组合收益增加,方差减少。在这些影响下,我们发现强化学习在2013年后变得更加强大:强化学习、决策、养老金储蓄、个人理财、退休政策JEL Codes:D80, D70, H3, D14, J26
{"title":"Reinforcement learning in individual pension system: the case of Turkey","authors":"Yunis Dede, Sadettin Haluk Çitçi, H. Yanıkkaya","doi":"10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1873","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1873","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose- How individuals make saving/investment decisions and they are subject to learning processes are important questions in economics. Behavioral economics and finance literature tell us that individuals can deviate from bayesian decisions and the personal experiences can be effective in decision making. “Reinforcement learning” provides a framework for individual investors who are weighing on strategies successful and avoid strategies unsuccessful in which they experience. In this study, we investigate the effect of past experiences on individuals' retirement savings/investment decisions and whether individual investors are reinforcement learner. For this purpose, we examine individual contracts in the annual micro panel dataset obtained from the Pension Monitoring Center in Individual Pension System in Turkey.\u0000Methodology- Essentially, we assume that individuals' retirement saving/investment decisions are influenced by returns and variances (represents the risk level) of their avaliable portfolio as well as their time horizon, spending habits, retirement goals, risk tolerance and demographic characteristics. In this context, we estimate a linear model by including returns and variances in order to investigate how much sensitive individual investors are to returns and variances of their portfolio. Moreover, we add lagged returns and variances to our econometric setup to examine whether they are reinforcement learner. After that, we conduct a before-after analysis by looking at the dataset from 3-year window to analyze the impact of the 2013 state subsidy reform on reinforcement learning of individual investors.\u0000Findings- Similar to individuals' age, gender and education level, portfolio returns and variances also have a statistically significant effect on the contributions paid. Increases in portfolio returns affect the contributions paid positively, while increases in portfolio variance affect it negatively. As an indicator of reinforcement learning, respectively, lagged returns and variances have a significant positive and negative effect like the same year returns and variances of individual investors. According to this result, individual investors weigh on successful strategies and avoid unsuccessful strategies they have experienced. Increases in variances and lagged variances of individuals' portfolios have a larger negative effect compared to returns. Additionally, looking at the 3-year window, we report that the reinforcement learning of individual investors has strengthened after the 2013 state subsidy reform.\u0000Conclusion- We show that individual investors in IPS in Turkey exhibit reinforcement learning when making retirement savings/investment decisions. High return or low variance obtained in previous periods causes individuals to pay more contributions paid in the next period. This result reveals that individuals benefit from their past experiences when making logical and optimized decisions based on their avaliable knowledge and e","PeriodicalId":517141,"journal":{"name":"Pressacademia","volume":"20 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139897582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tapping into long term value: a comprehensive overview of BIST 30 index companies future potential 挖掘长期价值:BIST 30 指数公司未来潜力综合概览
Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1843
Zekeriya Bildik, K. Tokmakçıoğlu
Purpose - This article aims to establish a correlation between the valuation potential of companies listed on the Borsa Istanbul 30 index and their enduring competitive advantage, focusing on microeconomic Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and corporate governance dimensions.Methodology - The study conducted an extensive analysis of the financial statements of BIST 30 companies spanning three years. Employing a unique approach utilizing Triangular Spherical Fuzzy Sets, it assessed the significance of these KPIs and corporate dimensions, chosen for their capacity to handle imprecise data. Three experts were consulted over three years to assign importance scores to each indicator, which were then used to calculate cumulative scores for individual stocks.Findings - The application of the Triangular Spherical Fuzzy Sets method provided a comprehensive understanding of these indicators, ena-bling a nuanced evaluation of the cumulative score for each stock. Notably, a clear distinction emerged between service and manufacturing companies, suggesting a potential glass ceiling effect that favors production-oriented enterprises. The observed patterns in certain stocks aligned with the framework developed in this study.Conclusion - This study illustrates the use of fuzzy logic in evaluating stock valuation potential, revealing insights into their sustained growth prospects. Aligned with Warren Buffett's value investing principles, it advances modeling approaches within the Turkish public stock exchange. Offering a unique perspective on BIST 30 stocks' long-term valuation potential, it provides valuable insights for investors, stakeholders, and analysts in the dynamic finance landscape. Emphasizing the understanding of companies' enduring competitive strength in an evolving market is pivotal.Keywords: Value investing, triangular spherical fuzzy sets, long term competitive advantage, corporate governance.
目的--本文旨在建立伊斯坦布尔证券交易所 30 指数上市公司的估值潜力与其持久竞争优势之间的相关性,重点关注微观经济关键绩效指标 (KPI) 和公司治理方面。方法--本研究对伊斯坦布尔证券交易所 30 指数公司三年的财务报表进行了广泛分析。研究采用了一种利用三角球形模糊集的独特方法,对这些关键绩效指标和公司治理方面的重要性进行了评估。研究结果 - 三角球形模糊集方法的应用让我们对这些指标有了全面的了解,从而对每只股票的累计得分进行了细致入微的评估。值得注意的是,服务公司和制造公司之间出现了明显的区别,这表明潜在的玻璃天花板效应有利于生产型企业。在某些股票中观察到的模式与本研究中开发的框架一致。结论 - 本研究说明了在评估股票估值潜力时使用模糊逻辑的方法,揭示了对其持续增长前景的见解。它与巴菲特的价值投资原则相一致,推进了土耳其公共证券交易所的建模方法。它以独特的视角分析了 BIST 30 种股票的长期估值潜力,为投资者、利益相关者和分析师在动态金融环境中提供了宝贵的见解。强调了解公司在不断变化的市场中的持久竞争实力至关重要:价值投资 三角球形模糊集 长期竞争优势 公司治理
{"title":"Tapping into long term value: a comprehensive overview of BIST 30 index companies future potential","authors":"Zekeriya Bildik, K. Tokmakçıoğlu","doi":"10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1843","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1843","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose - This article aims to establish a correlation between the valuation potential of companies listed on the Borsa Istanbul 30 index and their enduring competitive advantage, focusing on microeconomic Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and corporate governance dimensions.\u0000Methodology - The study conducted an extensive analysis of the financial statements of BIST 30 companies spanning three years. Employing a unique approach utilizing Triangular Spherical Fuzzy Sets, it assessed the significance of these KPIs and corporate dimensions, chosen for their capacity to handle imprecise data. Three experts were consulted over three years to assign importance scores to each indicator, which were then used to calculate cumulative scores for individual stocks.\u0000Findings - The application of the Triangular Spherical Fuzzy Sets method provided a comprehensive understanding of these indicators, ena-bling a nuanced evaluation of the cumulative score for each stock. Notably, a clear distinction emerged between service and manufacturing companies, suggesting a potential glass ceiling effect that favors production-oriented enterprises. The observed patterns in certain stocks aligned with the framework developed in this study.\u0000Conclusion - This study illustrates the use of fuzzy logic in evaluating stock valuation potential, revealing insights into their sustained growth prospects. Aligned with Warren Buffett's value investing principles, it advances modeling approaches within the Turkish public stock exchange. Offering a unique perspective on BIST 30 stocks' long-term valuation potential, it provides valuable insights for investors, stakeholders, and analysts in the dynamic finance landscape. Emphasizing the understanding of companies' enduring competitive strength in an evolving market is pivotal.\u0000\u0000Keywords: Value investing, triangular spherical fuzzy sets, long term competitive advantage, corporate governance.\u0000","PeriodicalId":517141,"journal":{"name":"Pressacademia","volume":"32 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139897613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary momentum and risk management in stock market 股票市场的货币动力和风险管理
Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1877
E. Kılıç, Sitki Sonmezer
Purpose- This study aims to investigate the relationship between monetary interest rate decisions, liquidity mechanisms and risk management issues. As a core interest the significance of a structural change in the data around the FOMC meetings is analyzed. By the help of continuous time models we analyze the kind of dynamics, which can be observed in the stock returns, i.e. conditional volatilities and jumps. A further central interest is given to investment decisions and risk management issues. This encompasses the elaboration of the hedging strategies to achieve higher performance.Methodology- The study employs GARCH-Ito and GARCH-Ito-Jump models to analyze the stock market returns and their related volatilities on the day of a FED interest decision announcement. The continuous time GARCH model setting allows to model stock market returns with a high flexibility, therefore these models are abled to capture jump dynamics in the stock returns. Findings- The analysis reveals that persistence in conditional volatilities change according to alternative stocks. These stocks can be classified according to alternative market capitalization sizes. Mega market capitalization stocks are better governed by no jump GARCH-Ito models regardless the monetary policy changes, that is, changes in interest rates or not.Conclusion- Based upon the analysis, it may be concluded that risk management applications effectively might perform under the consideration of stock types in terms of market sizes. The persistence in the conditional volatility massively decreases if a jump component is introduced into the model. Since most of the mega market cap stocks perform better without a jump part component, it might be conjectured that persistence in the conditional volatility for mega cap stocks play a more important role compared to large cap stocks. Regardless the case whether there is an interest rate change or not, the persistence in conditional volatility remains in mega cap stocks, and thus, these stocks are prone to the involvement of prices jumps. Keywords: Monetary policy, risk management, jump detection, investment decisionsJEL Codes: C22, E49, G11
目的-- 本研究旨在探讨货币利率决策、流动性机制和风险管理问题之间的关系。作为核心兴趣,我们分析了 FOMC 会议前后数据中结构性变化的重要性。在连续时间模型的帮助下,我们分析了在股票收益中可以观察到的动态变化,即条件波动率和跳跃。投资决策和风险管理问题也是我们关注的重点。研究方法--本研究采用 GARCH-Ito 和 GARCH-Ito-Jump 模型来分析美国联邦储备委员会(FED)宣布利率决定当天的股市回报率及其相关波动率。连续时间 GARCH 模型的设置允许对股市回报率进行高度灵活的建模,因此这些模型能够捕捉股票回报率中的跳跃动态。研究结果--分析表明,条件波动率的持续性会随着备选股票的变化而变化。这些股票可根据市值大小进行分类。结论--根据分析,可以得出结论,在考虑股票类型的市场规模时,风险管理应用可能会有效地发挥作用。如果在模型中引入跳跃成分,条件波动率的持续性会大大降低。由于大多数超大市值股票在没有跳跃成分的情况下表现更好,因此可以推测超大市值股票的条件波动率的持续性比大盘股更重要。无论利率是否发生变化,超大市值股票的条件波动率的持续性依然存在,因此,这些股票很容易受到价格跳跃的影响。关键词货币政策、风险管理、跳跃检测、投资决策JEL Codes:C22, E49, G11
{"title":"Monetary momentum and risk management in stock market","authors":"E. Kılıç, Sitki Sonmezer","doi":"10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1877","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1877","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose- This study aims to investigate the relationship between monetary interest rate decisions, liquidity mechanisms and risk management issues. As a core interest the significance of a structural change in the data around the FOMC meetings is analyzed. By the help of continuous time models we analyze the kind of dynamics, which can be observed in the stock returns, i.e. conditional volatilities and jumps. A further central interest is given to investment decisions and risk management issues. This encompasses the elaboration of the hedging strategies to achieve higher performance.\u0000Methodology- The study employs GARCH-Ito and GARCH-Ito-Jump models to analyze the stock market returns and their related volatilities on the day of a FED interest decision announcement. The continuous time GARCH model setting allows to model stock market returns with a high flexibility, therefore these models are abled to capture jump dynamics in the stock returns. \u0000Findings- The analysis reveals that persistence in conditional volatilities change according to alternative stocks. These stocks can be classified according to alternative market capitalization sizes. Mega market capitalization stocks are better governed by no jump GARCH-Ito models regardless the monetary policy changes, that is, changes in interest rates or not.\u0000Conclusion- Based upon the analysis, it may be concluded that risk management applications effectively might perform under the consideration of stock types in terms of market sizes. The persistence in the conditional volatility massively decreases if a jump component is introduced into the model. Since most of the mega market cap stocks perform better without a jump part component, it might be conjectured that persistence in the conditional volatility for mega cap stocks play a more important role compared to large cap stocks. Regardless the case whether there is an interest rate change or not, the persistence in conditional volatility remains in mega cap stocks, and thus, these stocks are prone to the involvement of prices jumps. \u0000\u0000Keywords: Monetary policy, risk management, jump detection, investment decisions\u0000JEL Codes: C22, E49, G11\u0000","PeriodicalId":517141,"journal":{"name":"Pressacademia","volume":"272 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139894073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Innovation and financial performance: an European evidence 创新与财务业绩:欧洲的证据
Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1853
Carmelo Intrisano, Anna Maria Calce, Elisa Cafolla, Michele Lentini
Purpose- The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between innovation and financial performance in the context of European listed companies. Starting from the initial thesis of Schumpeter, this topic attracts the interest of academics and managers because innovation is included among the factors capable of influencing the value, profitability and competitive advantage of companies. The empirical evidence in this regard appears divergent: the existing literature shows positive or negative impacts or indicates the absence of a relationship between innovation (summarised in research and development expenditure) and financial performance. Methodology- The study employs correlation analysis in order to figure out the existence of a link between innovation and financial performance. In accordance with the literature review, we use R&D expenses divided by sales as proxy of innovation and return on equity (ROE), return on capital employed (ROCE), EBITDA margin and profit margin as measures of financial performance. Data are obtained form the Amadeus Bureau van Dijk database and refers to the year 2020. Given the need to consider companies for which all the quantities mentioned are available for 2020, the final sample is made up of n. 224 European listed companies.Findings- Pearson's correlation coefficient with EBITDA margin is 0.027, with ROA is 0.016, with Net profit margin is 0.034 and with ROE is 0.025, highlighting a weak positive relationship between the independent variable and each dependent variables (that means the R&D activities will increase the profitability of firms on the same financial year). However the p-value, higher than the α=0.05 threshold, makes the correlation coefficient not statistically significant. The analysis reveals that innovation, measured by the ratio R&D espenses to sales, does not show any correlation with financial performance instantly, that is on the same financial year. Our results are consistent with the branch of studies according to which R&D activity has no effects on company performance. Conclusion- The analysis conducted does not prove the existence of a significant relationship between innovation and financial performance. A possible explanation can be found in the circumstance whereby the effect of research and development activities, as well as for all intangible assets, on the performance of companies is mainly observable in the medium-long term (what is known in the literature as the “lagged effect” of intangible assets on performance); therefore limiting the analysis to just one year does not allow us to fully grasp the impact itself. The conclusion reached is not to be understood in an absolute sense since innovation can also be measured by other indicators other than research and development expenses, such as the use of ICT, graduate employees, etc. Hence the possibility of further research developments and points of reflection considering the impact of R&D on the firm’s long-run per
目的--本研究的目的是以欧洲上市公司为背景,探讨创新与财务业绩之间的关系。从熊彼特(Schumpeter)的最初论述开始,这个话题就吸引了学术界和管理者的兴趣,因为创新是能够影响公司价值、盈利能力和竞争优势的因素之一。这方面的实证证据似乎存在分歧:现有文献显示创新(概括为研发支出)与财务业绩之间存在或正或负的影响,或表明两者之间不存在关系。研究方法--本研究采用相关性分析,以找出创新与财务业绩之间存在的联系。根据文献综述,我们用研发支出除以销售额来代表创新,用股本回报率(ROE)、资本回报率(ROCE)、息税折旧摊销前利润率和利润率来衡量财务业绩。数据来源于 Amadeus Bureau van Dijk 数据库,时间为 2020 年。研究结果--与息税折旧摊销前利润率的皮尔逊相关系数为 0.027,与投资回报率的皮尔逊相关系数为 0.016,与净利润率的皮尔逊相关系数为 0.034,与投资回报率的皮尔逊相关系数为 0.025,这表明自变量与各因变量之间存在微弱的正相关关系(即研发活动会提高企业在同一财政年度的盈利能力)。然而,P 值高于 α=0.05 临界值,使得相关系数在统计上并不显著。分析表明,以研发投入与销售额之比衡量的创新与同一财政年度的财务业绩没有任何即时相关性。我们的研究结果与研发活动对公司业绩没有影响的研究结果一致。结论--所做分析并未证明创新与财务业绩之间存在显著关系。一个可能的解释是,研发活动以及所有无形资产对公司业绩的影响主要在中长期内可以观察到(文献中称之为无形资产对业绩的 "滞后效应");因此,将分析限制在一年内并不能让我们完全掌握影响本身。我们不能绝对地理解所得出的结论,因为创新还可以用研发费用以外的其他指标来衡量,如信息和通信技术的使用、毕业生员工等。因此,考虑到研发对企业长期绩效的影响,并在分析中纳入其他因素,可能会有进一步的研究发展和思考点:创新、企业绩效、财务绩效、上市公司 JEL Codes:G30、L29、O30、
{"title":"Innovation and financial performance: an European evidence","authors":"Carmelo Intrisano, Anna Maria Calce, Elisa Cafolla, Michele Lentini","doi":"10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1853","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1853","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose- The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between innovation and financial performance in the context of European listed companies. Starting from the initial thesis of Schumpeter, this topic attracts the interest of academics and managers because innovation is included among the factors capable of influencing the value, profitability and competitive advantage of companies. The empirical evidence in this regard appears divergent: the existing literature shows positive or negative impacts or indicates the absence of a relationship between innovation (summarised in research and development expenditure) and financial performance. \u0000Methodology- The study employs correlation analysis in order to figure out the existence of a link between innovation and financial performance. In accordance with the literature review, we use R&D expenses divided by sales as proxy of innovation and return on equity (ROE), return on capital employed (ROCE), EBITDA margin and profit margin as measures of financial performance. Data are obtained form the Amadeus Bureau van Dijk database and refers to the year 2020. Given the need to consider companies for which all the quantities mentioned are available for 2020, the final sample is made up of n. 224 European listed companies.\u0000Findings- Pearson's correlation coefficient with EBITDA margin is 0.027, with ROA is 0.016, with Net profit margin is 0.034 and with ROE is 0.025, highlighting a weak positive relationship between the independent variable and each dependent variables (that means the R&D activities will increase the profitability of firms on the same financial year). However the p-value, higher than the α=0.05 threshold, makes the correlation coefficient not statistically significant. The analysis reveals that innovation, measured by the ratio R&D espenses to sales, does not show any correlation with financial performance instantly, that is on the same financial year. Our results are consistent with the branch of studies according to which R&D activity has no effects on company performance. \u0000Conclusion- The analysis conducted does not prove the existence of a significant relationship between innovation and financial performance. A possible explanation can be found in the circumstance whereby the effect of research and development activities, as well as for all intangible assets, on the performance of companies is mainly observable in the medium-long term (what is known in the literature as the “lagged effect” of intangible assets on performance); therefore limiting the analysis to just one year does not allow us to fully grasp the impact itself. The conclusion reached is not to be understood in an absolute sense since innovation can also be measured by other indicators other than research and development expenses, such as the use of ICT, graduate employees, etc. Hence the possibility of further research developments and points of reflection considering the impact of R&D on the firm’s long-run per","PeriodicalId":517141,"journal":{"name":"Pressacademia","volume":"11 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139896903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mapping the intellectual structure and evolution of information technology and auditing: a bibliometric review 绘制信息技术与审计的知识结构和演变图:文献计量学综述
Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1871
Esteban Pérez Calderón, Samer Azeez Alrahamneh
Purpose- The goal of this study is to conduct a bibliometric analysis of papers relevant to information technology (IT) and auditing that were published in the Web of Science Core Collection database between 1978 and 2022.Methodology- This study does a bibliometric analysis of 2991 audit and information technology publications from a pool of 7738. It works in two steps: descriptive performance metrics and co-word analysis. The descriptive metrics include publishing patterns, productive nations and authors, effect on certain areas and journals, number of citations by country, and publications with the highest citations. The co-occurrence analysis maps the ties between concepts by utilizing social network analysis methods to investigate the field's interconnections.Findings- This study identifies six major trends in IT and auditing: increased technology use in internal auditing, the demand for information security expertise, transparency in the digital age, technology for ethical auditing, cloud-based auditing with blockchain, and post-COVID IT continuous auditing standards. These trends highlight the need for auditors to adapt to evolving technology and ethical considerations, prioritizing data security and privacy. Additionally, the survey reveals key authors, publications, and countries in this field, offering valuable insights for industry leaders and potential research collaborations.Conclusion- This study provides a complete overview of the topic of IT and auditing by integrating several methodological techniques. This study provides direction for future research in addition to offering significant insight into the main research trends, issues, and problems in this subject.Keywords: Information technology, auditing, co-occurrence analysis, bibliometric analysis.JEL Codes: M41, M42
目的--本研究的目的是对 1978 年至 2022 年期间发表在 Web of Science Core Collection 数据库中与信息技术(IT)和审计相关的论文进行文献计量分析。方法--本研究从 7738 篇论文中选取了 2991 篇审计和信息技术方面的论文进行文献计量分析。它分为两个步骤:描述性绩效指标和共词分析。描述性指标包括出版模式、高产国家和作者、对某些领域和期刊的影响、各国的引用次数以及引用次数最高的出版物。研究结果--本研究确定了 IT 和审计领域的六大趋势:内部审计中技术应用的增加、对信息安全专业知识的需求、数字时代的透明度、道德审计技术、基于区块链的云审计以及后 COVID IT 持续审计标准。这些趋势突出表明,审计人员需要适应不断发展的技术和道德考量,优先考虑数据安全和隐私。此外,调查还揭示了该领域的主要作者、出版物和国家,为行业领导者和潜在的研究合作提供了宝贵的见解。本研究为未来的研究提供了方向,同时也为这一主题的主要研究趋势、问题和难题提供了重要见解:信息技术、审计、共现分析、文献计量分析:M41, M42
{"title":"Mapping the intellectual structure and evolution of information technology and auditing: a bibliometric review","authors":"Esteban Pérez Calderón, Samer Azeez Alrahamneh","doi":"10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1871","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17261/pressacademia.2023.1871","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose- The goal of this study is to conduct a bibliometric analysis of papers relevant to information technology (IT) and auditing that were published in the Web of Science Core Collection database between 1978 and 2022.\u0000Methodology- This study does a bibliometric analysis of 2991 audit and information technology publications from a pool of 7738. It works in two steps: descriptive performance metrics and co-word analysis. The descriptive metrics include publishing patterns, productive nations and authors, effect on certain areas and journals, number of citations by country, and publications with the highest citations. The co-occurrence analysis maps the ties between concepts by utilizing social network analysis methods to investigate the field's interconnections.\u0000Findings- This study identifies six major trends in IT and auditing: increased technology use in internal auditing, the demand for information security expertise, transparency in the digital age, technology for ethical auditing, cloud-based auditing with blockchain, and post-COVID IT continuous auditing standards. These trends highlight the need for auditors to adapt to evolving technology and ethical considerations, prioritizing data security and privacy. Additionally, the survey reveals key authors, publications, and countries in this field, offering valuable insights for industry leaders and potential research collaborations.\u0000Conclusion- This study provides a complete overview of the topic of IT and auditing by integrating several methodological techniques. This study provides direction for future research in addition to offering significant insight into the main research trends, issues, and problems in this subject.\u0000\u0000Keywords: Information technology, auditing, co-occurrence analysis, bibliometric analysis.\u0000JEL Codes: M41, M42\u0000","PeriodicalId":517141,"journal":{"name":"Pressacademia","volume":"330 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139896965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Pressacademia
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1