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Party Ideology and Vocational Education Spending: Empirical Evidence from Germany 政党意识形态与职业教育支出:来自德国的经验证据

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2020-08-21 DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifaa006

I. Bischoff, Julia Hauschildt

We provide—to the best of our knowledge—the first empirical study on the political economy of public spending on vocational education. Vocational schools raise human capital among non-academics and give the latter a stronger bargaining position in wage negotiation—thereby supporting the clientele of leftwing parties. At the same time, they provide publicly funded inputs that raise firm productivity—an aim particularly important for conservative parties. We analyze expenditures on vocational schools of 301 West-German counties between 2002 and 2013 using two-way fixed effects and mixed models. We find the counties’ expenditures on vocational schools to decrease in the political power of Social Democrats and increase in the political power of Christian conservatives in the county council. Expenditures are higher in election years. We find no support for the conjecture building on Jensen (2011, Compar. Polit. Stud. 44, 412–435) according to which expenditures on vocational education are higher in regions suffering from deindustrialization. (JEL codes: H75, D72).

据我们所知，我们首次对职业教育公共支出的政治经济学进行了实证研究。职业学校提高了非学者的人力资本，使后者在工资谈判中具有更强的议价地位，从而支持了左翼政党的客户。与此同时，他们提供公共资金投入，以提高企业生产率——这对保守党来说是一个特别重要的目标。本文采用双向固定效应和混合模型对2002 - 2013年间西德301个县的职业学校支出进行了分析。我们发现，各县在职业学校上的支出减少了社会民主党在县议会中的政治权力，增加了基督教保守派在县议会中的政治权力。选举年的开支更高。我们没有发现Jensen(2011，比较)的推测支持。Polit。研究报告44,412-435)，在遭受去工业化的地区，职业教育的支出更高。(JEL代码:H75, D72)。

引用次数: 1

Did Lockdown Work? An Economist’s Cross-Country Comparison 封锁奏效了吗?一位经济学家的跨国比较

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2020-08-02 DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifab003

C. Bjørnskov

Abstract I explore the association between the severity of lockdown policies in the first half of 2020 and mortality rates. Using two indices from the Blavatnik Centre’s COVID-19 policy measures and comparing weekly mortality rates from 24 European countries in the first halves of 2017–2020, addressing policy endogeneity in two different ways, and taking timing into account, I find no clear association between lockdown policies and mortality development.

摘要我探讨了2020年上半年封锁政策的严重程度与死亡率之间的关系。使用布拉瓦特尼克中心新冠肺炎政策措施的两个指数，并比较了2017-2020年上半年24个欧洲国家的每周死亡率，以两种不同的方式解决政策内生性，并考虑到时间，我发现封锁政策与死亡率发展之间没有明确的关联。

引用次数: 38

Populism and Social Polarization in European Democracies 民粹主义与欧洲民主国家的社会两极分化

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifab006

V. Ginsburgh, S. Perelman, P. Pestieau

The objective of this article is to explain populist attitudes that are prevailing in a number of European democracies. Populist attitudes usually lead to social protests and populist votes. We capture the populist wave by relying on values that are traditionally viewed as populist—such as distrust of institutions and neighbors, rejection of migrations, and strong preferences for law and order—rather than on voting behavior. Our study covers the period 2004–2018 and 25 European countries for which we match aggregated indicators of populist values and social polarization based on ESS and SILC survey micro-data. We show that social polarization varies dramatically across European regions, but at the same time, some convergence is observed. Our estimations confirm, in most cases, a positive and statistically significant relation between social polarization and populist attitudes. (JEL codes: D63 and I30)

本文的目的是解释在一些欧洲民主国家盛行的民粹主义态度。民粹主义的态度通常会导致社会抗议和民粹主义的投票。我们抓住了民粹主义浪潮，依靠的是传统上被视为民粹主义的价值观——比如对制度和邻居的不信任、拒绝移民、对法律和秩序的强烈偏好——而不是投票行为。我们的研究涵盖了2004-2018年期间和25个欧洲国家，我们基于ESS和SILC调查微观数据匹配了民粹主义价值观和社会两极分化的综合指标。我们的研究表明，欧洲各地区的社会两极分化差异很大，但与此同时，也观察到一些趋同。我们的估计证实，在大多数情况下，社会两极分化和民粹主义态度之间存在着积极的、统计上显著的关系。(JEL代码:D63和I30)

引用次数: 9

COVID-19: guaranteed Loans and Zombie Firms COVID-19:担保贷款和僵尸公司

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2020-06-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3619744

Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek, Florian Keller

Abstract Based on a survey (7–13 April 2020) we evaluate the reaction of Swiss firms towards the COVID-19 crisis. Firms show little pro-active reactions towards the crisis, but decrease their business activities. The firms in the survey report that the decline in foreign demand is the single most important reason for their deteriorating business situation. Firms that faced a more difficult business situation before the crisis are affected more severely during the crisis. Moreover, we investigate the impact of the Swiss federal loan program (Bundeshilfe) on the business activities. To this end, we develop a stylized theoretical model of financially constrained heterogeneous firms. We find that policy makers face a trade-off between immediate higher unemployment rates and long-term higher public spending. The former arises from a combination of a too strong economic impact of the COVID-19 lockdown (demand drop) and too low levels of loans provided. Nevertheless, providing (too) high levels of loans to firms creates zombie firms that are going to default in the future leading to an increase in public spending. (JEL codes: D22, D25, D84, and G33)

基于一项调查(2020年4月7日至13日)，我们评估了瑞士企业对COVID-19危机的反应。企业对危机没有表现出积极的反应，反而减少了业务活动。接受调查的公司报告说，国外需求的下降是他们经营状况恶化的唯一最重要的原因。在危机前面临更困难经营状况的公司在危机期间受到的影响更严重。此外，我们还调查了瑞士联邦贷款计划(Bundeshilfe)对商业活动的影响。为此，我们建立了一个财务约束异质性企业的程式化理论模型。我们发现，政策制定者面临着短期高失业率和长期高公共支出之间的权衡。前者源于新冠肺炎疫情封锁对经济的影响过大(需求下降)和提供的贷款水平过低。然而，向企业提供(过高)水平的贷款会产生僵尸企业，这些企业将在未来违约，导致公共支出增加。(JEL代码:D22、D25、D84、G33)

引用次数: 20

Inflation and Output Volatility: Evidence from International Historical Data 通货膨胀与产出波动：来自国际历史数据的证据

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifaa002

B. Ćorić

This study adopts a historical perspective to investigate variations in output volatility within and across world economies. The analysis uses annual data for 37 OECD and non-OECD countries covering the last two centuries. We focus on the relationship between inflation and output volatility. The results of a panel analysis show a positive effect of inflation on output volatility. This finding is consistent with the view that low inflation has a stabilizing effect on output volatility over the long term.

这项研究采用了历史的视角来调查世界经济体内部和之间产出波动的变化。该分析使用了过去两个世纪37个经合组织和非经合组织国家的年度数据。我们关注通货膨胀和产出波动之间的关系。一项小组分析的结果显示，通货膨胀对产出波动产生了积极影响。这一发现与低通胀对长期产出波动具有稳定作用的观点一致。

引用次数: 0

Should Contact Bans Have Been Lifted More in Germany?: A Quantitative Prediction of Its Effects. 德国是否应更多地取消接触禁令？对其影响的定量预测。

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2020-06-01 Epub Date: 2020-07-03 DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifaa004

Jean Roch Donsimoni, René Glawion, Bodo Plachter, Klaus Wälde, Constantin Weiser

Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of Covid-19 if RSC had been upheld after 20 April. We employ these findings and feed them into our theoretical model. We find that the peak of the number of sick individuals would have been reached already end of April. The number of sick individuals would have fallen below 1000 at the beginning of July. If restrictions had been lifted completely on April 20, the number of sick should have risen quickly again from around 27 April. A balance between economic and individual costs of RSC and public health objectives consists in lifting RSC for activities that have high economic benefits but low health costs. In the absence of large-scale representative testing of CoV-2 infections, these activities can most easily be identified if federal states of Germany adopted exit strategies that differ across states.

许多国家都在考虑取消社会接触限制（RSC）。我们量化了 RSC 对德国的影响。首先，我们采用纯统计方法预测如果 4 月 20 日后取消社会接触限制，Covid-19 的流行率。我们利用这些结果并将其纳入我们的理论模型。我们发现，患病人数的峰值将在 4 月底达到。到 7 月初，患病人数会降至 1000 人以下。如果在 4 月 20 日完全取消限制，那么患病人数应从 4 月 27 日左右开始迅速回升。要在区域管制的经济和个人成本与公共卫生目标之间取得平衡，就必须对经济效益高而健康成本低的活动取消区域管制。在没有对 CoV-2 感染进行大规模代表性检测的情况下，如果德国各联邦州采取因州而异的退出策略，就能最容易地确定这些活动。

引用次数: 0

Reassessment of the Fiscal Multiplier in Developing Countries: Regime-Switching Model 发展中国家财政乘数的重新评估：制度转换模型

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.1093/CESIFO/IFAB009

Michal Hlaváček, Ilgar Ismayilov, A. Zeynalov

The existing literature on fiscal policy has mainly employed linear models that found a small fiscal multiplier in developing economies. These findings challenge the importance and effectiveness of fiscal policy for these countries. However, linear models are not capable of distinguishing the size of a fiscal multiplier in the different phases of economic cycles. Responding to previous studies that confirm the regime dependency of a fiscal multiplier, we develop a non-linear panel threshold vector autoregression model to measure the size of the fiscal multiplier for developing countries. Our findings confirm asymmetry in the response of GDP to government expenditure shock during periods of recovery and downturn. Our main result shows that the response of GDP to government expenditure shock during a recovery period in developing countries is double that for developed ones. Our results also confirm a significantly larger fiscal multiplier during recovery than in an economic downturn. (JEL codes: E32, E62, G15, and C54)

现有的财政政策文献主要采用线性模型，发现发展中经济体的财政乘数较小。这些发现挑战了财政政策对这些国家的重要性和有效性。然而，线性模型无法区分经济周期不同阶段财政乘数的大小。针对先前证实财政乘数制度依赖性的研究，我们开发了一个非线性面板阈值向量自回归模型来衡量发展中国家财政乘数的大小。我们的研究结果证实，在经济复苏和低迷时期，GDP对政府支出冲击的反应是不对称的。我们的主要结果表明，在复苏期，发展中国家的GDP对政府支出冲击的反应是发达国家的两倍。我们的研究结果还证实，在复苏期间，财政乘数明显大于经济衰退时期。（JEL代码：E32、E62、G15和C54）

引用次数: 1

Tradeoff between Default Risk and Efficiency Loss 违约风险与效率损失之间的权衡

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifz013

Jin Hyung Lee

The study characterizes an equilibrium bid function with three bidders in an average bid auction (ABA), where a winning bid is the one closest to an average of all submitted bids, when a cost overrun can occur, and an insolvent winner is penalized. First of all, every bidder bids an identical amount in the absence of the penalty. Meanwhile, when the penalty is charged high enough to prevent all bidders from breaching the contract due to cost overruns, either some bidders bid identically and the rest follow a strictly increasing bidding strategy, or all bidders place an identical bid. Based on the characterization, the ABA is compared to the first price reverse auction (FPA) in terms of a buyer’s benefit. The ABA could be more beneficial to the buyer without any penalty in spite of an insolvent winner’s default. If nobody defaults on his bid due to the high penalty, however, the FPA is good to the buyer. This result partly explains the rationale for the ABA in Italy. (JEL codes: C78, D82)

该研究描述了平均投标拍卖（ABA）中三个投标人的均衡投标函数，其中中标是最接近所有提交投标的平均值的投标，此时可能发生成本超支，破产的中标人将受到惩罚。首先，在没有罚款的情况下，每个投标人的出价都是相同的。同时，当罚款高到足以防止所有投标人因成本超支而违约时，要么一些投标人出价相同，其余投标人遵循严格增加的投标策略，要么所有投标人都投了相同的价。基于特征，将ABA与第一价格反向拍卖（FPA）在买方利益方面进行了比较。即使破产的赢家违约，ABA也可能对买方更有利，而不会受到任何处罚。然而，如果没有人因罚款过高而违约，FPA对买方有利。这一结果在一定程度上解释了意大利ABA的基本原理。（JEL代码：C78、D82）

引用次数: 0

Training Participation and the Role of Reciprocal Attitudes 培训参与与互惠态度的作用

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2020-01-27 DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifz022

Arjan Non

Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), I examine the relation between workers’ reciprocal attitudes, as measured in 2005 and 2010, and participation in work-related training courses in 2007 and 2013, respectively. Theory predicts that employers find it more profitable to invest in human capital of workers who have positively reciprocal attitudes, because they are more likely to return their employer’s kindness with higher effort and/or loyalty. The findings are mixed, depending on the survey year. I find that positively reciprocal workers are more likely to participate in employer-financed training in 2007, in particular when training is general. Also consistent with theoretical expectations, I do not find a relation between workers’ reciprocal attitudes and participation in training that is not financed by the employer. However, workers’ reciprocal attitudes are not related to training participation in 2013. A possible explanation is that employers use training to induce reciprocal feelings in a slack labour market only.

利用德国社会经济研究小组(SOEP)的数据，我分别研究了2005年和2010年测量的工人互惠态度与2007年和2013年参与与工作相关的培训课程之间的关系。理论预测，雇主发现投资于具有积极互惠态度的员工的人力资本更有利可图，因为他们更有可能以更高的努力和/或忠诚来回报雇主的好意。根据调查年份的不同，调查结果好坏参半。我发现，2007年，积极互惠的员工更有可能参加雇主资助的培训，尤其是在培训是一般性的情况下。同样与理论预期一致的是，我没有发现工人的互惠态度与参与非雇主资助的培训之间存在关系。然而，2013年员工的互惠态度与培训参与无关。一种可能的解释是，雇主只是在低迷的劳动力市场上利用培训来诱导互惠感。

引用次数: 0

Gender, Social Value Orientation, and Tax Compliance 性别、社会价值取向与纳税遵从性

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2020-01-25 DOI: 10.1093/CESIFO/IFZ016

John W D’Attoma, Clara Volintiru, Antoine Malézieux

This article brings an important empirical contribution to the academic literature by examining whether gender differences in tax compliance are due to higher prosociality among women. We conducted a large cross-national tax compliance experiment carried out in different countries—Italy, UK, USA, Sweden, and Romania. We uncover that women declare a significantly higher percentage of their income than men in all five countries. While some scholars have argued that differences in honesty between men and women are mediated by prosociality, we find that women are not more prosocial than men in all countries and we do not find a mediating effect of prosocial behaviour on tax compliance. Though tax evasion is a form of dishonesty, the tax compliance experiment is quite different from an honesty experiment, which is certainly one explanation for the different results. We conclude that although differences in prosociality between men and women seem to be context-dependent, differences in tax compliance are indeed much more consistent.

本文通过研究性别差异是否由于女性更高的亲社会性，为学术文献带来了重要的实证贡献。我们在意大利、英国、美国、瑞典和罗马尼亚等不同国家进行了大型跨国税务合规实验。我们发现，在所有五个国家中，女性申报的收入占比都明显高于男性。虽然一些学者认为，男性和女性之间的诚实差异是由亲社会性介导的，但我们发现，在所有国家，女性并不比男性更亲社会，我们也没有发现亲社会行为对纳税合规的中介作用。虽然逃税是不诚实的一种形式，但税收合规实验与诚实实验截然不同，这当然是不同结果的一个解释。我们得出的结论是，尽管男性和女性在亲社会性方面的差异似乎与环境有关，但在纳税合规方面的差异确实更为一致。

引用次数: 2

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