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2024 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)最新文献

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Reliability and Availability Analysis of Photovoltaic Systems 光伏系统的可靠性和可用性分析
Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS51492.2024.10457827
Kim Hintz, M. Dazer
This paper introduces a novel simulation that combines the reliability modeling of photovoltaic (PV) system components with their respective I-V characteristic curves. The simulation encompasses varied system designs, including string inverter and module-integrated inverter concepts, and accounts for diverse solar irradiation and shading scenarios across multiple operating conditions. By integrating reliability aspects with real-world operating scenarios, the approach offers a holistic view of PV system performance considering the impact of frequency and occurrence of component failures and different repair strategies. The research delves deep into how the inverter reliability and the choice of repair strategies can influence the profitability of a PV system in various environmental conditions. A thorough statistical analysis revealed that both inverter lifetime and repair strategy have a significant effect on profitability. Key results indicate that in Germany, the optimal repair limit for the string inverter design is approximately at a 2.5 kWh daily power loss. In contrast, if the inverter lifetime in the module-inverter concept is sufficiently long, no repairs are necessary to achieve an optimal profit. These findings highlight the intricate relationship between inverter lifetime, application scenarios, and environmental conditions when determining optimal repair strategies.
本文介绍了一种新颖的模拟方法,它将光伏(PV)系统组件的可靠性建模与其各自的 I-V 特性曲线相结合。该模拟涵盖了各种系统设计,包括组串逆变器和模块集成逆变器概念,并考虑了多种运行条件下的各种太阳辐照和遮阳情况。通过将可靠性方面与实际运行场景相结合,该方法提供了光伏系统性能的整体视图,考虑了组件故障频率和发生率以及不同维修策略的影响。研究深入探讨了逆变器可靠性和维修策略的选择如何影响光伏系统在各种环境条件下的盈利能力。全面的统计分析显示,逆变器寿命和维修策略对盈利能力都有显著影响。主要结果表明,在德国,组串式逆变器设计的最佳维修极限约为每天 2.5 千瓦时的功率损失。相比之下,如果模块-逆变器概念中的逆变器寿命足够长,则无需维修即可获得最佳利润。这些发现突出表明,在确定最佳维修策略时,逆变器寿命、应用方案和环境条件之间存在着错综复杂的关系。
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引用次数: 0
Exploratory Data Analysis for Failure Detection and Isolation in Complex Systems 用于复杂系统故障检测和隔离的探索性数据分析
Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS51492.2024.10457810
Navid Zaman, You-Jung Jun, Daniel Chan
Failure detection and isolation (FDI) is a crucial step in diagnostics and is quickly shifting to towards using analytical techniques such as machine learning and deep learning, rather than traditional rules-based approaches. This is partially due to the availability of sensor systems, hardware and networking allowing for a vast collection and processing of data. However, this information is prone to issues such as noise, corruption, poor formatting and recording practices. In most cases, a diagnostics project may stall midway due to late discovery of these problems. This paper proposes exploring the data beforehand, to locate issues in the data and/or optimize data quality to maximize performance or explain possible performance loss. Various techniques such as data visualization, statistical analysis and feature importance are mentioned. Most importantly, a domain knowledge set is to be integrated with such correlation-based methods to ensure that data quality decisions are made with understanding of the system. The limitations of such analysis including scalability and interpretation issues are discussed as well, leading to proposals of possible future paths to improvement such as sensor fusion and AI-based recommendations.
故障检测和隔离(FDI)是诊断的关键步骤,目前正迅速转向使用机器学习和深度学习等分析技术,而不是传统的基于规则的方法。这部分归功于传感器系统、硬件和网络的可用性,它们允许收集和处理大量数据。然而,这些信息很容易受到噪音、损坏、格式不佳和记录方法等问题的影响。在大多数情况下,诊断项目可能会因为较晚发现这些问题而中途停滞。本文建议事先探索数据,找出数据中的问题和/或优化数据质量,以最大限度地提高性能或解释可能的性能损失。文中提到了数据可视化、统计分析和特征重要性等各种技术。最重要的是,领域知识集要与这种基于相关性的方法相结合,以确保在了解系统的情况下做出数据质量决策。此外,还讨论了此类分析的局限性,包括可扩展性和解释问题,从而提出了未来可能的改进途径,如传感器融合和基于人工智能的建议。
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引用次数: 0
A UAV Case Study on an MBSE Workflow with Integrated Modular Safety and Reliability Analysis 无人飞行器案例研究:集成模块化安全与可靠性分析的 MBSE 工作流程
Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS51492.2024.10457654
Bernhard Kaiser, Michael Soden, Nils Heuermann
This paper presents a model-based systems engineering (MBSE) workflow in compliance with aerospace safety standards, based on the new SysML v2 language and with particular focus on executable models. We extend the SysML modeling concepts by Component Fault Trees (CFTs) to form an integrated modular Model-Based Safety Analysis (MBSA) approach. We showcase our approach by an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (search&rescue drone) and discuss how this approach can speed up the process and increase the consistency, modularity, and reuse of the design and safety analysis of the system.
本文介绍了符合航空安全标准的基于模型的系统工程(MBSE)工作流程,该流程基于新的 SysML v2 语言,并特别关注可执行模型。我们通过组件故障树(CFT)扩展了 SysML 建模概念,形成了一种集成的模块化基于模型的安全分析(MBSA)方法。我们通过无人驾驶飞行器(搜救无人机)展示了我们的方法,并讨论了这种方法如何加快流程,提高系统设计和安全分析的一致性、模块性和重用性。
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引用次数: 0
Machine Learning Qualification Process and Impact to System Assurance 机器学习鉴定流程及对系统保证的影响
Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS51492.2024.10457743
Benjamin Werner, Benjamin Schumeg, Jason E. Summers, V. Berisha
To address the technical challenges associated with the verification, validation, assurance, and trust of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) in safety critical applications, ARiA in partnership with Arizona State University (ASU) proposed the framework of a Machine Learning Qualification Process (MLQP) in response to a Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) solicitation. The MLQP incorporates measures and metrics to qualify data sets and models and considerations for the use of data cards, feature cards, and model cards. The US Army Combat Capabilities Development Command Armaments Center (DEVCOM AC) has been developing a roadmap [1] to mitigate the risks associated with the development and deployment of AI/ML enabled systems. The proposed MLQP addresses many of the key challenges and considerations from that roadmap to enable the development of assured and trusted AI/ML enabled systems. This paper will examine how the proposed approach can be leveraged as a tool to build assurance into the cycle of AI/ML development and deployment to ensure safe and reliable systems and the alignment to Army assurance practices as well as DoD guidance.
为了解决与人工智能和机器学习(AI/ML)在安全关键应用中的验证、确认、保证和信任相关的技术挑战,ARiA 与亚利桑那州立大学(ASU)合作提出了机器学习鉴定流程(MLQP)框架,以响应小企业技术转让(STTR)招标。MLQP 包括对数据集和模型进行鉴定的措施和指标,以及使用数据卡、特征卡和模型卡的注意事项。美国陆军作战能力发展司令部军备中心(DEVCOM AC)一直在制定一个路线图[1],以降低与开发和部署人工智能/ML 系统相关的风险。拟议的 MLQP 解决了该路线图中的许多关键挑战和注意事项,从而能够开发出可靠可信的人工智能/ML 系统。本文将探讨如何利用所提出的方法作为一种工具,在 AI/ML 开发和部署周期中建立保证,以确保系统的安全可靠,并与陆军保证实践和国防部指南保持一致。
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引用次数: 0
Planning Inspection Times for Degradation Tests 规划降解试验的检查时间
Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS51492.2024.10457819
Rong Pan, Guanqi Fang
Degradation tests are often accompanied by pre-defined product inspection plans because real-time monitoring of product performance is difficult, if not impossible, in most cases. If the purpose of an inspection plan is to predict a failure time before an actual failure happens, it is reasonable to increase inspection frequency gradually over time as the test unit deteriorates over time. Curiously, this strategy has not been discussed much in the degradation test (DT) planning literature. In this paper, we propose a risk-based inspection (RBI) method to determine the final inspection time. By balancing the probability of failure and the consequence of failure, we place the optimal inspection time at the moment of highest failure risk, thus it is closer to the soft failure time that engineers actually care about. Furthermore, we test three inspection scheduling strategies - the equal-distance inspection time strategy, the equal-proportion inspection time strategy, and the middle inspection time strategy. It is found that progressively adding middle inspection times can enhance the prediction property of the degradation model. Through simulation, we show that this inspection plan performs better than other plans.
降解测试通常伴随着预先确定的产品检查计划,因为在大多数情况下,对产品性能进行实时监控即使不是不可能,也是很困难的。如果检查计划的目的是在实际故障发生前预测故障时间,那么随着时间的推移,随着测试单元的老化而逐渐增加检查频率是合理的。奇怪的是,降级测试(DT)规划文献中对这一策略的讨论并不多。在本文中,我们提出了一种基于风险的检查 (RBI) 方法来确定最终检查时间。通过平衡失效概率和失效后果,我们将最佳检查时间放在失效风险最高的时刻,因此更接近工程师实际关心的软失效时间。此外,我们还测试了三种检查调度策略--等距离检查时间策略、等比例检查时间策略和中间检查时间策略。结果发现,逐步增加中间检查时间可以增强退化模型的预测性能。通过仿真,我们发现该检查计划的性能优于其他计划。
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引用次数: 0
A Reliability and Availability Model of a Kubernetes Cluster Using SysML 使用 SysML 建立 Kubernetes 集群的可靠性和可用性模型
Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS51492.2024.10457826
Myron Hecht, Scott Agena
This paper demonstrates the use of Model Based Systems Engineering and SysML for a Kubernetes cluster and how the results of such models can be used for design and architectural decisions. There are two major innovations in this paper. The first is use of SysML for reliabiltiy/availability modeling of a computer system with a containerized software architecture using Kubenetes, the most common orchestration (system management) platform for containerized architectures [1]. By using SysML, it is possible to incorporate reliability and availability models into a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) development process. The benefits are better design decisions and lower cost. The second innovation is a description of how the Litmus Chaos failure simulation testing framework [8] can be used for empirical measurement of reliability/availability model parameters. Systems built on the Kubernetes platform can be developed incrementally so that executable systems with partial functionality can be observed and measured to provide early feedback on system reliability and availability performance. The early feedback enables more accurate assessments and more effective corrective actions if necessary. The numerical results of the SysML model were verified using an independent model. The results of the two models agreed to the 9th significant figure or better.
本文展示了基于模型的系统工程和 SysML 在 Kubernetes 集群中的应用,以及如何将这些模型的结果用于设计和架构决策。本文有两大创新。首先是使用 SysML 对计算机系统的可靠性/可用性建模,该系统采用 Kubenetes 的容器化软件架构,Kubenetes 是容器化架构最常用的协调(系统管理)平台[1]。通过使用 SysML,可以将可靠性和可用性模型纳入基于模型的系统工程(MBSE)开发流程。这样做的好处是能做出更好的设计决策并降低成本。第二项创新是介绍如何利用 Litmus Chaos 故障模拟测试框架[8]对可靠性/可用性模型参数进行实证测量。在 Kubernetes 平台上构建的系统可以增量开发,这样就可以观察和测量具有部分功能的可执行系统,从而提供有关系统可靠性和可用性性能的早期反馈。早期反馈可实现更准确的评估,并在必要时采取更有效的纠正措施。SysML 模型的数值结果通过一个独立模型进行了验证。两个模型的结果相差 9 倍或更多。
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引用次数: 0
MLOps FMEA: A Proactive & Structured Approach to Mitigate Failures and Ensure Success for Machine Learning Operations MLOps FMEA:减轻故障并确保机器学习运营成功的积极主动的结构化方法
Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS51492.2024.10457600
Abhishek Paul, Roderick Y. Son, Shiv A. Balodi, K. Crooks
Machine learning applications have seen an exponential rise in prevalence across many different industries including healthcare, banking, manufacturing, and defense. While there is a lot of potential for machine learning applications, successful development and productionization is not assured. To prevent failures and ensure success, a Machine Learning Operations (MLOps) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is proposed as a proactive structured approach for risk identification and mitigation.
机器学习应用在医疗保健、银行、制造和国防等多个行业的普及率呈指数级增长。虽然机器学习应用潜力巨大,但并不能确保成功开发和生产。为了防止失败并确保成功,我们提出了机器学习操作(MLOps)故障模式和影响分析(FMEA),作为一种积极主动的结构化风险识别和缓解方法。
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引用次数: 0
Do Bayesian Neural Networks Weapon System Improve Predictive Maintenance? 贝叶斯神经网络武器系统能否改善预测性维护?
Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS51492.2024.10457828
Michael L. Potter, Miru D. Jun
We implement a Bayesian inference process for Neural Networks to model the time to failure of highly reliable weapon systems with interval-censored data and time-varying covariates. We analyze and benchmark our approach, LaplaceNN, on synthetic and real datasets with standard classification metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Area Under Curve (AUC) Precision-Recall (PR) AUC, and reliability curve visualizations.
我们为神经网络实施了贝叶斯推理过程,以模拟具有区间校验数据和时变协变量的高可靠性武器系统的故障时间。我们在合成数据集和真实数据集上使用标准分类指标,如接收者工作特征曲线(ROC)下面积(AUC)、精度-召回(PR)AUC 和可靠性曲线可视化,对我们的方法 LaplaceNN 进行了分析和基准测试。
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引用次数: 0
Measures and Metrics of ML Data and Models to Assure Reliable and Safe Systems 确保系统可靠安全的 ML 数据和模型的衡量标准和指标
Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS51492.2024.10457615
Benjamin Werner, Benjamin Schumeg, Jon Vigil, Shane N. Hall, Benjamin G. Thengvall, Mikel D. Petty
The US Army solicited partners through a Broad Agency Announcement to propose solutions under a Small Business Technology Transfer contract mechanism for the program “Metrics and Methods for Verification, Validation, Assurance and Trust of Machine Learning Models & Data for Safety-Critical Applications in Armaments Systems.” OptTek Systems, Inc. and University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) were one of the selected proposals for Phase I. Under this contract agreement OptTek and UAH set the goal to research & develop (R&D) fundamental metrics & measures for the certification & qualification of ML training data sets & models. Of particular note, the use of a safety score calculated from the accuracy as well as a dedicated look at data quality have been demonstrated as reasonable approaches to the proposed topic. As the Technical Point of Contact for this effort, the US Army Combat Capabilities Development Command Armaments Center (DEVCOM AC) authored the topic and provided guidance on the effort to align with mission objectives. This paper is an exploration of the research and development conducted by OptTek and UAH within the framework of how it may be applied to the assurance of systems to be developed by the US Army and augment practices in reliability and safety.
美国陆军通过 "广泛机构公告"(Broad Agency Announcement)征集合作伙伴,在小企业技术转让合同机制下为 "用于军备系统安全关键应用的机器学习模型和数据的验证、确认、保证和信任的度量标准和方法 "项目提出解决方案。根据该合同协议,OptTek Systems 公司和阿拉巴马大学亨茨维尔分校(UAH)的目标是研究和开发(R&D)用于 ML 训练数据集和模型认证和鉴定的基本指标和措施。特别值得注意的是,根据准确性计算的安全分数以及对数据质量的专门研究已被证明是解决拟议主题的合理方法。作为这项工作的技术联络点,美国陆军作战能力发展司令部军备中心(DEVCOM AC)撰写了这一课题,并提供了与任务目标相一致的工作指导。本文探讨了 OptTek 和 UAH 在如何将其应用于美国陆军即将开发的系统保证以及增强可靠性和安全性实践的框架内进行的研究和开发。
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引用次数: 0
Scaled Reliability Prediction Model for Gallium Nitride (GaN) Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuit 氮化镓(GaN)单片微波集成电路的比例可靠性预测模型
Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS51492.2024.10457769
O. L. Kedienhon
The design and manufacture of Gallium Nitride Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuits (GaN MMICs) have matured in recent years, yet there is no existing reliability prediction modeling method, like the widely utilized one for Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) MMIC in MIL-HDBK-217. This paper develops and presents a new method for these devices by modifying key parameters in the existing GaAs MMIC standard model to incorporate the improved temperature properties of GaN, and typical activation energy, Ea obtained from accelerated life tests. The resulting model will be an invaluable tool for the reliability modeling of GaN MMICs for device suppliers and customers across all industries.
近年来,氮化镓单片微波集成电路(GaN MMIC)的设计和制造已日趋成熟,但目前还没有像 MIL-HDBK-217 中广泛使用的砷化镓(GaAs)MMIC 那样的可靠性预测建模方法。本文通过修改现有砷化镓 MMIC 标准模型中的关键参数,结合氮化镓改进的温度特性和加速寿命测试中获得的典型活化能 Ea,为这些器件开发并提出了一种新方法。由此产生的模型将成为器件供应商和各行业客户建立 GaN MMIC 可靠性模型的宝贵工具。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
2024 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)
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