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Simulation of Residential Real Estate Markets in the Largest Russian Cities 俄罗斯最大城市住宅房地产市场的模拟
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-2-22
L. Yasnitsky, V. L. Yasnitsky, A. Alekseev
The existing mass appraisal models and mathematical tools for predicting the market value of residential property have a number of disadvantages, as they are developed for individual regions. Without considering the constantly changing economic environment, these models quickly become outdated and require constant updating. Thus, they are not suitable for construction business optimisation. The study aims to create a universally applicable real estate appraisal system for Russian cities, regardless of the constantly changing economic situation. This goal was achieved through the creation of a neural network, whose input parameters include construction and operational data, geographical factors, time effect, as well as a number of indicators characterising the economic situation in specific regions, Russia and the world. In order to examine the dynamics of real estate markets in the Russian Federation, statistical data for neural network training were collected over a long period from 2006 to 2020. Virtual computer experiments were performed for testing the developed system. They showed that minimum size one-room apartments of 16 square meters have the highest unit cost per square meter in Moscow. Two-room apartments with an area of 90 square meters have the maximum price, as well as 100 sq. m. three-room, 110 sq. m. four-room and 120 sq. m. five-room apartments. In Ekaterinburg, two-room apartments with a total area of 30 square meters have the highest cost per square meter; the same applies for 110 sq. m. three-room, 130 sq. m. four-room and 150 sq. m. five-room apartment. Thus, the proposed system can be used to optimise the construction business. It can be also be useful for government institutions concerned with urban real estate market management, property taxation, and housing market improvement.
现有的用于预测住宅物业市场价值的大规模评估模型和数学工具存在许多缺点,因为它们是针对个别地区开发的。如果不考虑不断变化的经济环境,这些模型很快就会过时,需要不断更新。因此,它们不适合建筑业务优化。该研究旨在为俄罗斯城市创建一个普遍适用的房地产评估系统,而不考虑不断变化的经济形势。这一目标是通过建立一个神经网络来实现的,该网络的输入参数包括建筑和业务数据、地理因素、时间效应以及反映俄罗斯和世界特定地区经济状况的若干指标。为了研究俄罗斯联邦房地产市场的动态,从2006年到2020年的很长一段时间内收集了用于神经网络训练的统计数据。对所开发的系统进行了虚拟机实验。数据显示,在莫斯科,最小面积16平方米的一居室公寓每平方米的单价最高。面积为90平方米的两居室公寓和100平方米的公寓价格最高。M.三室,110平方米。M.四室120平方米。M.五室公寓。在叶卡捷琳堡,总面积为30平方米的两居室公寓每平方米的价格最高;同样适用于110平方英尺。M.三室,130平方米。四间房,150平方米。五室公寓。因此,所提出的系统可用于优化建筑业务。它也可以用于政府机构关心城市房地产市场管理,财产税和住房市场的改善。
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引用次数: 1
Spatial Distribution of Urban Services from the Spatial Justice Perspective: Case Study of Tehran 空间正义视角下的城市服务空间分布:以德黑兰为例
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-3-16
M. Ghaderi Hajat, M. Azizzadeh Tasouj, M. Shoeibi
The realisation of spatial justice, guaranteeing the quality of life for all citizens and the prohibition of citizens’ exclusion are the fundamental principles of optimal urban management. Social seclusion is associated with social policies such as education, health, housing, employment, crime, welfare, poverty alleviation, etc. The spatial problems in Tehran are due to the political organising and political management of space in Iran on a micro and macro scale during the last hundred years. Tehran as the major metropolis of Iran has a special significance in the Iranian urban system; but in terms of spatial justice, the distribution of urban services across its districts is considered heterogeneous. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the status of “Spatial Justice of Tehran” in terms of urban services and examine the level of difference between districts. Mixed method is used in this research. The results show that the distribution of urban services is not just in 22 districts of Tehran. According to the findings, district 1 has the highest level of services and districts 17 and 9 have the lowest levels of services.
实现空间正义,保障全体市民的生活质量,禁止市民排斥,是优化城市管理的基本原则。社会隔离与教育、卫生、住房、就业、犯罪、福利、扶贫等社会政策有关。德黑兰的空间问题源于近百年来伊朗在微观和宏观层面上对空间的政治组织和政治管理。德黑兰作为伊朗的主要大都市,在伊朗城市体系中具有特殊的意义;但就空间公正而言,城市服务在各个地区的分布被认为是异质的。本文的目的是评估德黑兰在城市服务方面的“空间正义”状况,并检查地区之间的差异程度。本研究采用混合方法。结果表明,城市服务的分布不只是在德黑兰的22个地区。根据调查结果,第1区服务水平最高,第17区和第9区服务水平最低。
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引用次数: 1
Estimating the Multiplier Effect of Investment Projects of the Far Eastern Federal District on Regional Socio-Economic Development 远东联邦区投资项目对区域社会经济发展的乘数效应估算
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-2-5
V. Chichkanov, L. Belyaevskaya-Plotnik
Approximately two thousand investment projects, which have already been financed at a cost of about 700 billion roubles, are being implemented in the Far Eastern Federal District. The effects from the implementation of these projects include the commissioning of about 270 enterprises and creation of over 40 thousand jobs. The paper aims to develop and test tools for estimating the multiplier effect of investment projects on the dynamics of regional development indicators. The integral analysis method was used to aggregate various multi-dimensional characteristics of selected projects into one synthetic indicator. As a result, a generalised ranking of investment projects was compiled to assess their combined contribution to regional development. The top-3 projects are: 1) Inaglinsky mining and processing plant (has the greatest economic effect estimated by the expected gross regional product increment of 252 billion roubles); 2) Vostochny Cosmodrome (is expected to create 4,000 new jobs); 3) Sakhalin GRES-2 (has a commercial effect estimated by the expected inflow of private investment in the amount of 432 billion roubles). A detailed study of Far Eastern investment projects in the coordinate space “regional efficiency — regional socio-economic development” allowed us to quantify their multiplicative contribution to socio-economic development of the regions. According to the ranking of investment projects in the Far Eastern Federal District, the largest projects, expected to show high quantitative results, have a multidirectional impact on the socio-economic indicators of the regions of operation. The research results can be used to develop national and regional support programmes for major investment projects to attract additional funding, establish a system of measures for maintaining a favourable investment climate in the region, as well as to create the necessary infrastructure.
远东联邦区正在实施大约2000个投资项目,这些项目已获得融资,耗资约7000亿卢布。这些项目的实施带来的影响包括投产约270家企业,创造4万多个就业岗位。本文旨在开发和测试估算投资项目对区域发展指标动态的乘数效应的工具。采用积分分析法,将选定项目的各种多维特征集合为一个综合指标。因此,编制了投资项目的一般排名,以评估它们对区域发展的综合贡献。排名前三的项目是:1)Inaglinsky采矿和加工厂(经济效益最大,预计地区生产总值增加2520亿卢布);2)东方航天发射场(预计创造4000个新工作岗位);3)库页岛GRES-2(具有商业效应,预计私人投资流入4,320亿卢布)。对远东投资项目在“区域效率-区域社会经济发展”坐标空间中的详细研究使我们能够量化它们对区域社会经济发展的倍增贡献。根据投资项目的排名在远东联邦区的最大项目,预计高定量结果,多向影响区域的社会经济指标的操作。研究结果可用于为重大投资项目制订国家和区域支助方案,以吸引更多的资金,建立一套措施制度,在该区域维持有利的投资环境,并创造必要的基础设施。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of the Influence of Macroeconomic Shocks on Deposit Resources of Commercial Banks in the Russian Federation and the EU Countries 宏观经济冲击对俄罗斯联邦和欧盟国家商业银行存款资源影响的评估
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-3-23
E. Grinko, D. A. Ilyunina
Economic process management takes place in the context of sharply increased shock and turbulence components, when business environment is extremely unstable, and risk, an inevitable element of a managed system, becomes even more unpredictable as a result of the increased influence of systemic factors. Considering the impact of economic shocks on socio-economic welfare, as well as the reaction, the depth of the consequences, and the susceptibility of countries to shock impulses, the issue of assessing the possible consequences for all economic entities, including banks, became acute. Using economic and mathematical tools, including the calculation of regression coefficients and relative velocities, the study determined the influence of macroeconomic shocks and their main types for the economies of the Russian Federation and EU countries. The specificity of the impact of economic shows on the deposits was shown. Conclusions were drawn regarding the impact of shock impulse indicators on the savings behaviour of depositors, the level of inflow and stability of bank deposits in the Russian Federation and EU countries. It was established that for the Russian economy, the instantaneous impact of all assessed factors on the banks deposit resources is an important feature of the impact of shocks. For European countries, there is a time lag with the transmission of impulses through individual development indicators. The proposed method allows analysing and forecasting the modern crises impact, including the projection of the banks’ deposit activity in the face of the “new normal”. Using this data, future studies may predict a combination of shocks that can affect bank deposit resources, considering the peculiarities of a country development.
经济过程管理是在冲击和动荡因素急剧增加的背景下进行的,商业环境极不稳定,风险作为被管理系统不可避免的因素,由于系统性因素的影响增加而变得更加不可预测。考虑到经济冲击对社会经济福利的影响,以及反应、后果的深度和各国对冲击冲动的敏感性,评估对包括银行在内的所有经济实体可能造成的后果的问题变得紧迫。该研究利用经济和数学工具,包括计算回归系数和相对速度,确定了宏观经济冲击及其主要类型对俄罗斯联邦和欧盟国家经济的影响。揭示了经济活动对矿床影响的特殊性。关于冲击脉冲指标对存款人储蓄行为、俄罗斯联邦和欧盟国家银行存款流入水平和稳定性的影响,得出了结论。对俄罗斯经济而言,所有被评估因素对银行存款资源的瞬时影响是冲击影响的一个重要特征。对欧洲国家来说,通过个别发展指标传递动力存在时间滞后。提出的方法可以分析和预测现代危机的影响,包括预测面对“新常态”的银行存款活动。利用这些数据,考虑到一个国家发展的特殊性,未来的研究可以预测可能影响银行存款资源的冲击组合。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of the Socio-Ecological and Economic Welfare of the Russian Eastern Regions Using Sen’s Extended Function 利用Sen扩展函数评价俄罗斯东部地区的社会生态和经济福利
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-2-7
I. Zabelina
The accelerated development of the Russian Far East is among the country’s national priorities. Since the ultimate goal is to increase the well-being of the population, it is important to create a healthy environment. The article presents the comprehensive assessment results of the welfare of the Eastern regions in the context of achieving the strategic goals of the state policy for the development of the Russian Far East. The research aims to assess the character of socio-economic development, as well as to obtain quantitative characteristics of socio-ecological and economic well-being of the Eastern regions using a multiplicative model based on Sen’s extended welfare function. It is hypothesised that environmental factors play an important role in the quality of life in the Eastern regions, meaning that the inclusion of the corresponding component in the multiplicative model will lead to a decrease in the assessment of their welfare. For some regions, the study identified such negative trends as the strengthening of the raw material orientation of economic development, a decrease in the share of manufacturing industries, continuing resource export. The inclusion of the environmental component into the multiplicative model significantly affected the assessment results: in most of the Eastern regions, environmentally adjusted characteristic of regional development was significantly lower than the indicator that does not consider this aspect. Moreover, some border regions showed the worst dynamics of the examined indicators. Advantages of the border situation and accelerated development mechanisms currently implemented in the Far East have not yet contributed to a noticeable increase in the welfare of these regions. The research results can be used in the public administration practice for developing strategic planning documents, socio-economic and environmental programmes, as well as for evaluating the effectiveness of implemented accelerated development mechanisms.
加快远东地区的发展是俄罗斯的国家优先事项之一。由于最终目标是增加人民的福祉,因此创造一个健康的环境是很重要的。本文介绍了在实现俄罗斯远东发展国家政策战略目标的背景下对东部地区福利的综合评估结果。本研究旨在利用基于Sen扩展福利函数的乘法模型,评估东部地区社会经济发展特征,并获得东部地区社会生态和经济福利的数量特征。据推测,环境因素在东部地区的生活质量中起着重要作用,这意味着在乘法模型中纳入相应的组成部分将导致对其福利的评估减少。对于某些区域,研究指出了诸如经济发展的原材料导向加强、制造业所占份额减少、资源出口继续等消极趋势。将环境因素纳入乘数模型显著影响了评价结果:在大部分东部地区,区域发展的环境调整特征显著低于不考虑这方面的指标。此外,一些边境地区在所审查的指标中表现出最差的动态。目前在远东实施的边界局势的优势和加速发展机制尚未使这些地区的福利显著增加。研究结果可用于公共行政实践,以制订战略规划文件、社会经济和环境方案,以及评价所执行的加速发展机制的效力。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing State Support of Entrepreneurship in Rural Areas 加强国家对农村创业的支持
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-21
S. Polbitsyn, A. Earl
While national and regional governments develop and implement various programmes to support rural entrepreneurship, entrepreneurs themselves consider these programmes insufficient. Ultimately, this situation negatively affects the socio-economic development of rural areas. The study aims to develop and test tools for examining the impact of entrepreneurship support programmes on rural socio-economic development. In order to investigate the motivation of actors in the economic system based on their motivating experience, hermeneutic phenomenological research methods in the field of economics were applied. The comparative analysis of entrepreneurship support programmes in Russia and New Zealand was supplemented by semi-structured interviews of entrepreneurs, which demonstrate that the implementation of unrelated projects reduces their efficiency and reinforces the negative perception. According to assessments of Russian entrepreneurs, infrastructure does not play an important role in the success of projects. In addition, the analysed government programmes rarely take into account social responsibility of business in rural areas, even though most of organisations there are family-owned. Recognising the lack of market experience of potential entrepreneurs, the government should primarily provide them with information on how to organise a sustainable business rather than with financial resources. The obtained results prove that the development and implementation of entrepreneurship support programmes in rural areas requires the involvement of multiple stakeholders: public authorities, local governments, rural entrepreneurs, as well as professional self-regulatory organisations and the rural population. To ensure efficient management of joint activities of all participants, it is necessary to establish a comprehensive system in the form of a rural entrepreneurial ecosystem, where the set targets for the development of rural entrepreneurship can be achieved.
虽然国家和地区政府制定和执行各种方案来支持农村创业,但企业家们自己认为这些方案是不够的。这种情况最终会对农村地区的社会经济发展产生负面影响。这项研究的目的是开发和测试工具,以审查创业支助方案对农村社会经济发展的影响。运用经济学领域的解释学现象学研究方法,从行为者的激励经验出发,考察经济系统中行为者的动机。对俄罗斯和新西兰企业家支持计划的比较分析辅以对企业家的半结构化访谈,结果表明,实施不相关的项目降低了他们的效率,并加强了负面看法。根据俄罗斯企业家的评估,基础设施在项目成功中没有发挥重要作用。此外,所分析的政府项目很少考虑到农村地区企业的社会责任,尽管那里的大多数组织都是家族企业。认识到潜在企业家缺乏市场经验,政府应主要向他们提供如何组织可持续企业的信息,而不是提供资金资源。获得的结果证明,在农村地区制定和实施创业支持计划需要多个利益相关者的参与:公共当局、地方政府、农村企业家、以及专业自律组织和农村人口。为了保证对所有参与者的共同活动进行有效的管理,需要以农村创业生态系统的形式建立一个全面的系统,在这个系统中,农村创业发展的既定目标可以实现。
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引用次数: 1
Post-Crisis Regionalisation of Global Value Chains in Strategies of Transnational Companies 危机后跨国公司战略中的全球价值链区域化
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-3
E. Smirnov
The current global crisis led to the transformation of global value chains (GVC) in strategies of transnational companies (TNCs). The present study aims to establish a causal relationship between the volatility of the world economy and regionalisation of global value chains. Based on historical analysis and a systemic-functional approach, scattered information about the impact of global value chains on the development of TNC strategies was integrated. Thus, various aspects of TNC activities (their participation in international trade, international capital flows, etc.) were analysed together in order to identify the consequences of regionalisation for the strategic development of such companies. The study revealed that the established international production system carries many risks, which are exacerbated by continuing protectionism in international trade. Under the influence of digitalisation, regionalisation of value chains and partial reshoring of production facilities are the key directions for further development of GVCs. Given the rapid cross-border transmission of exogenous shocks, the stability and sustainability of global value chains will determine their development; however, there is no evidence whether GVCs will lengthen or shorten. The high cost of the complex reconfiguration of GVCs towards regionalisation will lead to only minor changes in their architecture. The redesign will affect only some aspects of activities, in particular, the organisation of work with global suppliers. While the weak integration of developing countries into GVCs will remain, the barriers to internationalisation will be reduced under the influence of digitalisation, creating new opportunities for the incorporation of small business into the international production system. In general, global value chains will still be considered a reliable source to reduce the risks of global operating activities of TNCs. The research results can be used for further theoretical and methodological development of internationalisation strategies.
当前的全球经济危机促使跨国公司在战略上转变全球价值链。本研究旨在建立世界经济波动与全球价值链区域化之间的因果关系。基于历史分析和系统功能方法,整合了关于全球价值链对跨国公司战略发展影响的分散信息。因此,对跨国公司活动的各个方面(它们参与国际贸易、国际资本流动等)进行了综合分析,以便确定区域化对这些公司战略发展的影响。研究表明,现有的国际生产体系存在许多风险,而国际贸易保护主义的持续加剧了这些风险。在数字化的影响下,价值链区域化和生产设施部分回流是全球价值链进一步发展的关键方向。鉴于外生冲击的快速跨境传播,全球价值链的稳定性和可持续性将决定其发展;然而,没有证据表明全球价值链是否会延长或缩短。全球价值链向区域化方向进行复杂重新配置的高成本只会导致其结构发生微小变化。重新设计将只影响活动的某些方面,特别是与全球供应商的工作组织。虽然发展中国家融入全球价值链的程度仍将较弱,但在数字化的影响下,国际化的障碍将减少,为小企业融入国际生产体系创造新的机会。总的来说,全球价值链仍将被视为减少跨国公司全球经营活动风险的可靠来源。研究结果可为国际化战略的进一步理论和方法发展提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
Coal Projects as a Possible Driver of Infrastructure Development in Asian Russia 煤炭项目是亚洲俄罗斯基础设施发展的可能驱动力
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-13
V. Churashev, N. Suslov, V. Markova, Y. Fridman
The global decarbonisation policy, growing availability of alternative energy sources and, subsequently, intensified competition in the global energy market increase the risks for coal suppliers, including Russia, the world’s third largest exporter of this fuel. Based on the author’s database on coal projects in Asian Russia, policy documents for the fuel and energy sector development and forecasts of global fuel consumption, the study presents the development outlook of the Russian coal industry up to 2040. The scenarios took into consideration the decarbonisation rate, features of the energy transition and implementation costs. As a result, optimistic, baseline and pessimistic scenarios were created. The baseline scenario assumes that the global decarbonisation rate will be reduced and coal energy will be present in the energy balance for at least twenty years. The implementation of this scenario should be accompanied by a radical increase in labour productivity, technological modernisation of the main production processes, the launch of advanced coal processing enterprises, and achieved compliance with international environmental standards. At the same time, the export orientation of Russian coal projects, primarily to the Asia-Pacific market, will remain. This situation will stimulate transport infrastructure development in Siberia and the Russian Far East, positively affect the integrated socio-economic development of Asian territories and improve the quality of life of the population, contributing to the stability of the political and economic system. The findings can be used to assess the investment impulse of large development projects in Asian Russia.
全球脱碳政策、可替代能源的日益普及,以及随之而来的全球能源市场竞争加剧,都加大了煤炭供应商面临的风险,其中包括全球第三大煤炭出口国俄罗斯。本研究基于作者对俄罗斯亚洲地区煤炭项目的数据库、燃料和能源部门发展的政策文件以及对全球燃料消费的预测,提出了到2040年俄罗斯煤炭行业的发展前景。这些情景考虑了脱碳率、能源转型的特点和实施成本。因此,创造了乐观、基线和悲观的情景。基线情景假设全球脱碳率将降低,煤炭能源将在能源平衡中存在至少20年。在执行这一设想的同时,应大幅度提高劳动生产率,使主要生产过程实现技术现代化,开办先进的煤炭加工企业,并达到国际环境标准。与此同时,俄罗斯煤炭项目的出口方向仍将保持不变,主要面向亚太市场。这种情况将刺激西伯利亚和俄罗斯远东地区运输基础设施的发展,对亚洲领土的综合社会经济发展产生积极影响,提高人民的生活质量,有助于政治和经济制度的稳定。研究结果可用于评估俄罗斯亚洲地区大型开发项目的投资冲动。
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引用次数: 1
Development of Methods for Assessing the Digital Maturity of Organisations Considering the Regional Aspect 考虑区域因素的组织数字成熟度评估方法的发展
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-2-11
A. Chursin, T. Kokuytseva
Digital transformation has reached all regions of the Russian Federation. In this regard, it is essential to assess the digital maturity of various companies. Simultaneously, digital transformation projects should take into account interregional imbalances and regional specificities. The present study aims to develop an economic tool for assessing the digital maturity of organisations considering the regional aspect. To achieve this goal, we analysed theoretical approaches to assessing the digital maturity, presented a system of indicators that consider regional aspects, and created an assessment algorithm for interpreting the results. The developed economic tool allows the assessment of internal and external digital maturity in terms of quantitative indicators. Internal digital maturity considers scientific and technical, as well as production factors. In the presented methodology, external digital maturity considers four regional aspects: human, financial, consumer, infrastructural. Digital maturity was calculated using data normalisation methods to ensure their commensurability and analytic hierarchy process to consider the weight of each factor. Based on the presented scale, obtained via the method of simple grouping into equal intervals, digital maturity of organisations can be classified as basic, emerging, medium, advanced or high. Additionally, the conducted assessment of digital maturity allowed us to identify the “bottlenecks” in organisations that should be eliminated in order to increase the effectiveness of digital transformation. The developed economic tool was tested on the example of high-tech enterprises of the Russian Federation. The relationship between the calculated estimates and digital development of Russian regions was demonstrated. The obtained results can be used to implement strategies for managing the digital transformation of organisations, as well as to develop regional policies.
数字化转型已遍及俄罗斯联邦的所有地区。在这方面,评估各个公司的数字化成熟度是至关重要的。同时,数字化转型项目应考虑到区域间的不平衡和区域特殊性。本研究旨在开发一种经济工具,用于评估考虑区域方面的组织的数字成熟度。为了实现这一目标,我们分析了评估数字成熟度的理论方法,提出了一个考虑区域因素的指标体系,并创建了一个评估算法来解释结果。开发的经济工具可以根据定量指标评估内部和外部数字成熟度。内部数字成熟度考虑科学和技术,以及生产因素。在提出的方法中,外部数字成熟度考虑了四个区域方面:人力、金融、消费者、基础设施。采用数据归一化方法计算数字成熟度,以保证数据的通约性,并采用层次分析法考虑各因素的权重。根据给出的量表,通过简单分组等间隔的方法,组织的数字化成熟度可以分为基本、新兴、中等、先进和高。此外,对数字化成熟度的评估使我们能够确定组织中应该消除的“瓶颈”,以提高数字化转型的有效性。以俄罗斯联邦高科技企业为例,对开发的经济工具进行了检验。论证了估算值与俄罗斯地区数字化发展之间的关系。所获得的结果可用于实施管理组织数字化转型的战略,以及制定区域政策。
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引用次数: 2
Reaction of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises to the Corona Crisis: the Impact of Regional Authorities 中小企业对冠状病毒危机的反应:地区当局的影响
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-3-3
L. Ruzhanskaya, N. G. Fonova, E. Yakimova
The decline in Russian business activity due to the Covid restrictions was much lower than forecasted by international financial institutions. Even the small and medium enterprises (SME) sector, which experienced a significant downturn, in 2021 demonstrated a recovery and intentions to conduct business. The present study aims to reveal the impact of regional authorities on the activity of small and medium-sized enterprises during the crisis, coupled with the entrepreneurs’ own efforts and economic freedom in the region. To this end, a case study of Sverdlovsk oblast, a large Russian region with a diversified industrial structure and a developed SME sector, was analysed. Both qualitative and quantitative research methods were utilised in the case study. Qualitative methods include semi-structured interviews with CEOs aimed at identifying deep motives of activity and diversity of business responses to external challenges. As for quantitative methods, the economic freedom index of the region for 2002-2020 was calculated using the Coates method, the relationship between entrepreneurial activity in Sverdlovsk oblast and government intervention in the regional economy was assessed based on the ordinary least squares regression. The study demonstrated that the number of individual entrepreneurs depends on the government participation in the regional economy, while the activity of legal entities is more related to economic freedom. During the crisis, demand reduction and change, real income decline, restrictions on cross-border transactions and a growing concentration of market power accelerated changes in companies’ business models in terms of interaction with consumers, value proposition, networking and digitalisation of business. Additionally, business associations involved in the interaction between companies and public authorities gained importance in this period. The research results can be applied in the design of public policy measures for the small and medium-sized enterprises and regional development.
新冠肺炎限制措施导致的俄罗斯商业活动下降幅度远低于国际金融机构的预测。即使是经历了严重衰退的中小企业(SME)部门,在2021年也表现出了复苏和开展业务的意愿。本研究旨在揭示危机期间地区当局对中小企业活动的影响,以及企业家自身的努力和该地区的经济自由。为此目的,对斯维尔德洛夫斯克州的一个案例进行了分析,斯维尔德洛夫斯克州是俄罗斯一个拥有多样化工业结构和发达中小企业部门的大地区。案例研究中采用了定性和定量研究方法。定性方法包括与首席执行官进行半结构化访谈,旨在确定活动的深层动机和企业对外部挑战的反应的多样性。在定量方法上,采用Coates方法计算了2002-2020年该地区的经济自由指数,并基于普通最小二乘回归评估了斯维尔德洛夫斯克州的创业活动与政府对区域经济的干预之间的关系。研究表明,个体企业家的数量取决于政府对区域经济的参与程度,而法人实体的活动与经济自由度的关系更大。在危机期间,需求减少和变化、实际收入下降、对跨境交易的限制以及市场力量日益集中,加速了企业在与消费者互动、价值主张、业务网络化和数字化方面的商业模式变化。此外,参与公司与公共当局之间互动的商业协会在这一时期变得重要起来。研究结果可用于中小企业和区域发展的公共政策措施设计。
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Ekonomika Regiona-Economy of Region
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