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Analysis of the Competitiveness, Complementarity, and Trade Combination of Kazakhstan and China in the Oil and Gas Trade 哈萨克斯坦和中国在石油天然气贸易中的竞争力、互补性和贸易组合分析
IF 2.1 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.3390/economies12070182
Binghan Du, J. Juman, A. Makulova, A.V. Khamzayeva, Xuan Zhai
The oil and gas trade is one of the main ways to promote regional economic development by improving the effectiveness of resource allocation. While regional energy cooperation could lead to growth in the energy trade, blind investment will reduce effective yields. Kazakhstan and China maintain a stable oil and gas trade, but resource exports to China are not growing as expected. The aim of this research is to analyze the competitiveness and complementarity of Kazakhstan and China in the oil and gas trade, as well as the main factors affecting the oil and gas trade between Kazakhstan and China. By creating a linear regression equation to analyze the gravity model of the oil and gas trade between Kazakhstan and China, it was revealed that a 1% growth of the gross domestic product in both countries would lead to a 1.471% increase in the oil and gas trade. However, an increase in oil and gas production in Kazakhstan will not contribute to the expansion of the oil and gas trade with China. Kazakhstan and China could improve their oil and gas trade by strengthening financial cooperation, improving energy efficiency, increasing investment in infrastructure such as oil refineries and pipelines, and developing new oil and gas fields in Kazakhstan.
石油和天然气贸易是提高资源配置效率、促进地区经济发展的主要途径之一。地区能源合作可以促进能源贸易增长,但盲目投资会降低有效收益。哈萨克斯坦和中国保持着稳定的石油和天然气贸易,但对中国的资源出口并没有像预期的那样增长。本研究旨在分析哈中两国在石油天然气贸易中的竞争力和互补性,以及影响哈中两国石油天然气贸易的主要因素。通过建立线性回归方程来分析哈萨克斯坦与中国之间石油天然气贸易的引力模型,结果显示,两国国内生产总值每增长 1%,石油天然气贸易就会增长 1.471%。然而,哈萨克斯坦石油和天然气产量的增加并不会促进与中国石油和天然气贸易的扩大。哈萨克斯坦和中国可以通过加强金融合作、提高能源效率、增加对炼油厂和管道等基础设施的投资以及在哈萨克斯坦开发新的油气田来改善两国的油气贸易。
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引用次数: 0
Granular Cities 粒状城市
IF 2.6 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.3390/economies12070179
Leon Esquierro, Sergio Da Silva
This study extends the concept of granularity from firms to cities, examining how large cities influence national economic dynamics beyond their relative size. By applying Zipf’s law, which describes the power law distribution of city sizes, we investigate the interplay between granularity and business cycles. Our aim is to test the granular hypothesis that large cities have a significant impact on the business cycle beyond their relative size. We analyze data from American and Brazilian cities between 2003 and 2019 assessing the granular residuals and their explanatory power. Our findings reveal that in the United States, the granular city size is three metropolitan areas or five counties when redefined. In Brazil, it equates to three municipalities. These results emphasize the substantial role large cities play in national economic fluctuations, suggesting that policy interventions that target infrastructure, education, and innovation in major urban centers could have widespread economic benefits. This paper’s contribution to the literature is to highlight a spatial component of granularity not considered so far.
本研究将粒度概念从企业扩展到城市,探讨大城市如何超越其相对规模影响国家经济动态。通过应用描述城市规模幂律分布的齐普夫定律,我们研究了粒度与商业周期之间的相互作用。我们的目的是检验大城市对商业周期的影响超出其相对规模这一粒度假设。我们分析了 2003 年至 2019 年美国和巴西城市的数据,评估了粒度残差及其解释力。我们的研究结果表明,在美国,重新定义后的粒度城市规模为三个大都市区或五个县。在巴西,这相当于三个市。这些结果强调了大城市在国家经济波动中的重要作用,表明针对主要城市中心的基础设施、教育和创新的政策干预可能会产生广泛的经济效益。本文对相关文献的贡献在于强调了迄今为止尚未考虑过的粒度的空间组成部分。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Gastronomic Tourism on the Regional Economy of Thailand: Examined by the Dynamic I-O Model after the Decline of COVID-19 美食旅游对泰国地区经济的影响:COVID-19 衰退后的动态 I-O 模型检验
IF 2.6 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.3390/economies12070180
Banjaponn Thongkaw, Nattapan Kongbuamai, Warattaya Chinnakum, Chukiat Chaiboonsri
It is reasonable to state that gastronomic tourism is an efficient tool that has the potential to refresh Thailand’s macroeconomic viability. With the aim of becoming a hub of tourism in Southeast Asia, Thailand’s tourism industry must urgently address and sustainably integrate gastronomic activities to navigate the troubled situation caused by its decline after the COVID-19 pandemic. This has led the authors to conduct a deep study on a regional input–output (I-O) table analysis for Thailand’s tourism system, specifically focusing on gastronomic activities and tourism industries. The tourism I-O data used in this study come from the official source provided by the Thailand Ministry of Tourism and Sport. Empirically, the results of the dynamic regional I-O model predict that Bangkok and its surrounding areas are the heart of gastronomic tourism development, driving income into Thailand’s economy. The eastern region stands as the second-largest area of gastronomy tourism, generating a positive impact on Thailand’s economy. On the other hand, the Northeast of Thailand receives less income from gastronomy tourism despite being the largest area in the country. Ultimately, there should be a greater emphasis on gastronomy tourism policies in order to fully maximize their potential for tourism development, stimulating every part of Thailand during the economic depression caused by COVID-19. Moreover, gastronomy tourism has the potential to play an important role in driving economic growth through the combination of cuisine and tourism development.
可以合理地说,美食旅游是一种有效的工具,有可能刷新泰国宏观经济的活力。泰国旅游业的目标是成为东南亚的旅游枢纽,因此必须紧急应对并可持续地整合美食活动,以摆脱 COVID-19 大流行后旅游业衰退所造成的困境。这促使作者对泰国旅游系统的地区投入产出表(I-O)分析进行了深入研究,特别关注美食活动和旅游产业。本研究使用的旅游业 I-O 数据来自泰国旅游和体育部提供的官方资料。从经验来看,动态区域 I-O 模型的结果预测,曼谷及其周边地区是美食旅游业发展的核心,为泰国经济带来收入。东部地区是第二大美食旅游区,对泰国经济产生了积极影响。另一方面,尽管泰国东北部是全国最大的美食旅游区,但其收入却较少。因此,在 COVID-19 引发的经济萧条时期,应更加重视美食旅游政策,以充分发挥其旅游发展潜力,刺激泰国各地的旅游业。此外,美食旅游还有可能通过美食与旅游发展的结合,在推动经济增长方面发挥重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
Economic and Political Determinants of Sovereign Default and IMF Credit Use: A Robustness Assessment Post 2010 主权违约和国际货币基金组织信贷使用的经济和政治决定因素:2010 年后的稳健性评估
IF 2.6 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.3390/economies12070181
Lina Maddah, Hassan Sherry, Hussein Zeaiter
According to the IMF, the current public debt makes up nearly 40 percent of the global debt, marking the highest share since the mid-1960s. Despite the vast research on alarming levels of sovereign default, the literature remains inconclusive. This paper investigates macroeconomic, financial, and political determinants of IMF credit use in the post-2010 era. The main contribution of our study lies in its temporal analysis as we investigate how the robustness of different factors has evolved. By utilizing an extensive dataset on 216 countries over the period of 2010–2021 and employing a variant of the Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) method, our study reveals that fluctuations in the IMF credit to external debt ratio can be attributed to changes in the total reserves to external debt ratio, where this relationship is statistically significant and reliable. However, high political risks seem to no longer affect the IMF’s decision, post 2010. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that excluding countries with low debt arrears strengthens the results’ robustness. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the complexities surrounding IMF credit use in the contemporary global economic scene and offer new standpoints on the Fund’s lending choices.
根据国际货币基金组织的数据,目前的公共债务占全球债务的近 40%,是自 20 世纪 60 年代中期以来的最高份额。尽管对令人担忧的主权违约问题进行了大量研究,但相关文献仍然没有定论。本文研究了 2010 年后国际货币基金组织信贷使用的宏观经济、金融和政治决定因素。我们研究的主要贡献在于其时间分析,因为我们调查了不同因素的稳健性是如何演变的。通过利用 2010-2021 年期间 216 个国家的广泛数据集,并采用极端边界分析(EBA)方法的变体,我们的研究揭示了国际货币基金组织信贷与外债比率的波动可归因于总储备与外债比率的变化,这种关系在统计上是显著和可靠的。然而,2010 年后,高政治风险似乎不再影响国际货币基金组织的决策。此外,我们的研究结果表明,将债务拖欠程度低的国家排除在外可增强结果的稳健性。这些研究结果有助于更好地理解国际货币基金组织在当代全球经济环境中使用信贷的复杂性,并为国际货币基金组织的贷款选择提供了新的视角。
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引用次数: 0
Multi-Criteria Evaluation of the Institutional and Tax Environment for Business in the EU Economies 欧盟经济体商业体制和税收环境的多重标准评估
IF 2.6 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.3390/economies12070178
Charalampos Kalligosfyris, Zacharias Dermatis, Eleni Kalamara, Athanasios Anastasiou
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the institutional and tax environment for businesses in 21 countries of the European Union (EU), using a multi-criteria analysis and, in particular, the PROMETHEE II method, based on thirteen evaluation criteria and the ranking of the European economies. Through the research, the importance of factors related to the efficiency of the tax administration, the tax capacity of the country, the growth rate of the economy, the quality of institutions, the level of corruption, the tax burden, the time of tax compliance and the political stability of the country is studied, in the formation of an attractive environment for the development of entrepreneurship in the EU economies. Moreover, the results of the analysis revealed the existence of significant fiscal and institutional differences between the EU economies under investigation, regarding the development of entrepreneurship. These differences are due to the size of the economy, the institutions, the history, the economic crises of each country and a wide range of dissimilar policy recommendations, which reflect asymmetric policy responses. The study concludes by offering theoretical and political recommendations to improve the institutional and fiscal environment in EU economies so that entrepreneurship can play an important role in improving the economic and social situation of a country.
本研究的目的是采用多重标准分析法,特别是 PROMETHEE II 方法,根据十三项评价标准和欧洲经济体排名,对欧洲联盟(欧盟)21 个国家的企业制度和税收环境进行评价。通过这项研究,研究了与税收征管效率、国家税收能力、经济增长率、机构质量、腐败程度、税收负担、纳税时间和国家政治稳定性有关的因素对欧盟经济体形成有吸引力的创业发展环境的重要性。此外,分析结果表明,被调查的欧盟经济体在创业发展方面存在着显著的财政和制度差异。造成这些差异的原因包括各国的经济规模、制度、历史、经济危机以及各种不同的政策建议,这反映了不对称的政策反应。研究最后提出了理论和政治建议,以改善欧盟经济体的制度和财政环境,从而使创业在改善国家经济和社会状况方面发挥重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
‘Unlock the Complexity’: Understanding the Economic and Political Pathways Underlying the Transition to Climate-Smart Smallholder Forage-Livestock Systems: A Case Study in Rwanda 揭开复杂的面纱":了解向气候智能型小农饲料-畜牧系统过渡的经济和政治途径:卢旺达案例研究
IF 2.6 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.3390/economies12070177
Chiara Perelli, Luca Cacchiarelli, Mutimura Mupenzi, Giacomo Branca, Alessandro Sorrentino
The livestock-dairy sector in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Rwanda, is experiencing rapid growth due to population expansion, urbanisation, and changing food preferences. The unmet local production demands are causing soil and water pollution, competition for biomass, land, and water, but also grassland degradation, biodiversity loss, and increased GHGs emissions. Rwanda has the lowest productivity in the region, largely due to inadequate and poor-quality livestock feed resources. To increase animal productivity, promoting forage species with higher nutritional value and better adaptation to drought-prone and poor-fertility soils could be beneficial. Using a mixed-methods approach, the study explores Brachiaria forage adoption and profitability and analyses policy objectives and measures to overcome adoption barriers and promote the transition from subsistence to market-oriented systems. Results show that Brachiaria, although advantageous from an economic point of view, is characterised by very low adoption rates. Furthermore, access to extension programmes is limited and often not supported by adequate incentives. To overcome such barriers, policy interventions should be harmonised and information and knowledge management prioritised, public and private extension and advisory services (EASs) programmes coordinated, agricultural input subsidies increased, and institutional coordination promoted to enhance climate-smart animal feeding.
由于人口膨胀、城市化和食品偏好的改变,撒哈拉以南非洲地区,尤其是卢旺达的畜牧乳制品行业正在经历快速增长。当地生产需求得不到满足,造成了土壤和水污染、生物质、土地和水的竞争,以及草原退化、生物多样性丧失和温室气体排放增加。卢旺达是该地区生产率最低的国家,主要原因是牲畜饲料资源不足且质量差。为了提高畜牧业生产率,推广营养价值更高、更能适应干旱和贫瘠土壤的饲草物种是有益的。本研究采用混合方法,探讨了禾本科牧草的采用和盈利能力,并分析了克服采用障碍和促进从自给自足系统向市场导向系统过渡的政策目标和措施。结果表明,虽然从经济角度来看,禾本科牧草具有优势,但其采用率却非常低。此外,获得推广计划的机会有限,而且往往没有足够的激励措施。为克服这些障碍,应协调政策干预措施,优先考虑信息和知识管理,协调公共和私营推广和咨询服务计划,增加农业投入补贴,促进机构协调,以加强气候智能型动物饲养。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of Albania’s Trade Direction: Is the Open Balkan a New Center of Gravity? 阿尔巴尼亚贸易方向分析:开放的巴尔干是新的重心吗?
IF 2.6 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.3390/economies12070176
Glediana Zeneli (Foto), Arsen Benga, Altin Hoti
Trade is considered one of the main drivers of a country’s economic growth and development. Therefore, a successful analysis that identifies the bilateral trade flows, their determinants, and the regional integration costs and benefits opens new horizons for international trade perspectives. This study examines the effects of new and existing regional agreements on the international trade patterns of Western Balkan countries based on the Albanian case. In this regard, an extended trade gravity model is applied with a panel data set of trade flows between Albania and 43 of its regional strategic partners during the period of 2008 to 2022. This work considers two different similarity indexes to explain the effect of the economic structures of partner countries on their trade volumes: the relative factor endowment and the absolute factor endowment. The first is used to test the Linder Hypothesis, and the latter is used to test the effect of similarity in economic size between trading partners. Empirical results indicate that the effect of the selected explanatory variables, such as transportation costs, economic size, economic strength, exchange rate, and their relative as well as absolute endowment, is within expectations. Unexpectedly, the domestic economic size and strength are found to be insignificant in explaining the import flows and inversely proportional to the exports of Albania. Finally, it is indicated that trade flows are clearly dependent on traditional ties rather than on new incentives like the Open Balkan, which cannot offer a new regional center of gravity. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that the gravity of the Open Balkan initiative has been tested for one of the participating countries. The study concludes that while the Open Balkan initiative shows potential, the Berlin Process remains a more reliable path toward EU integration for Albania.
贸易被认为是一个国家经济增长和发展的主要驱动力之一。因此,对双边贸易流量、其决定因素以及区域一体化的成本和收益进行成功的分析,可为国际贸易视角开辟新的视野。本研究以阿尔巴尼亚为例,探讨了新的和现有的区域协定对西巴尔干国家国际贸易模式的影响。为此,本研究采用了一个扩展的贸易引力模型,并使用了 2008 年至 2022 年期间阿尔巴尼亚与其 43 个地区战略伙伴之间贸易流量的面板数据集。这项工作考虑了两种不同的相似性指数来解释伙伴国的经济结构对其贸易量的影响:相对要素禀赋和绝对要素禀赋。前者用于检验林德假说,后者用于检验贸易伙伴之间经济规模相似性的影响。实证结果表明,所选解释变量(如运输成本、经济规模、经济实力、汇率及其相对和绝对禀赋)的影响在预期之内。出乎意料的是,国内经济规模和经济实力在解释阿尔巴尼亚进口流量方面并不显著,而且与出口成反比。最后,研究表明,贸易流动明显依赖于传统联系,而不是开放巴尔干等新的激励机制,因为后者无法提供新的区域重心。据我们所知,这是首次对其中一个参与国的 "开放巴尔干 "倡议的重心进行测试。本研究的结论是,虽然 "开放巴尔干 "倡议显示出了潜力,但 "柏林进程 "仍然是阿尔巴尼亚融入欧盟的一条更可靠的道路。
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引用次数: 0
The Determinants of Decent Work in Moroccan Cooperatives and Implications for Public Action: Toward Public Action through Determinants 摩洛哥合作社体面工作的决定因素及对公共行动的影响:通过决定因素促进公共行动
IF 2.6 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI: 10.3390/economies12070174
Badr El Azhari, Mohammed Bougroum, Lahcen Ait Daoud, Houmam Lotfi
In a context marked by growing inequalities and sustainable development challenges, Moroccan cooperatives represent an opportunity to reconcile economic objectives with social issues. Rooted in principles of solidarity and democratic participation, these entities play a significant role in promoting decent work in alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The main objective of this study is to identify and analyze the determinants of decent work within Moroccan cooperatives in order to propose ways of improving working conditions and worker well-being. A survey of 394 Moroccan cooperatives and a data analysis using RCM regressions were used to assess the influence of employees’ socio-professional characteristics, the organizational specificities of cooperatives, and public action on decent work. The results indicate that factors such as youth, employee level of education, the gender of employees and managers, financial performance, and the quality of cooperative governance are decisive factors in the quality of decent work. Public action, in particular government support combining financial and technical measures, is identified to have a positive impact on working conditions. This research highlights the importance for public policy of supporting education and vocational training, promoting gender equality, improving cooperative management, and effectively structuring government support to maximize its positive impact on decent work. These findings offer concrete avenues for policymakers and cooperative managers to improve worker well-being and contribute to the SDGs. By addressing the challenges identified and implementing targeted strategies, it is possible to move toward more inclusive economic growth and decent work for all within the Moroccan context.
在不平等和可持续发展挑战日益加剧的背景下,摩洛哥的合作社为协调经济目标和社会问题提供了机会。这些实体植根于团结和民主参与的原则,在促进体面工作与可持续发展目标(SDGs)保持一致方面发挥着重要作用。本研究的主要目的是确定和分析摩洛哥合作社内体面工作的决定因素,以便提出改善工作条件和工人福利的方法。对 394 家摩洛哥合作社进行了调查,并使用 RCM 回归法进行了数据分析,以评估雇员的社会职业特征、合作社的组织特性以及公共行动对体面工作的影响。结果表明,青年、员工受教育程度、员工和管理人员的性别、财务业绩和合作社管理质量等因素是体面工作质量的决定性因素。公共行动,特别是结合财政和技术措施的政府支持,被认为对工作条件有积极影响。这项研究强调了公共政策在支持教育和职业培训、促进性别平等、改善合作社管理以及有效构建政府支持以最大限度地发挥其对体面工作的积极影响方面的重要性。这些研究结果为政策制定者和合作社管理者提供了具体的途径,以改善工人的福利并促进可持续发展目标的实现。通过应对所发现的挑战和实施有针对性的战略,摩洛哥有可能实现更具包容性的经济增长和人人享有体面工作。
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引用次数: 0
Persistent and Long-Term Co-Movements between Gender Equality and Global Prices 性别平等与全球物价之间持续而长期的共同变动
IF 2.6 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI: 10.3390/economies12070175
Juan Infante, Marta del Rio, Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana
This paper investigates the relationships of the Bloomberg Gender Equality Index and the MSCI World Index in global financial markets. The main objective is to analyze the degree of integration of each index from a fractional perspective for the years 2014–2021. The methodology involves fractional integration to assess the consistency and integration levels of both indices, revealing that they are remarkably consistent with integration orders close to 1 and no evidence of mean-reverting behavior. When examining potential cointegrating relationships between the two indices using the classical two-step method of Engle and Granger, the order of integration of the estimated errors is very close to 1, showing no evidence of cointegration. However, employing the more robust fractional CVAR (FCVAR) approach, the results strongly support the hypothesis of cointegration, indicating evidence of long-term co-movements between the two indices. The findings suggest that investment strategies should incorporate gender diversity criteria, as companies aligning with these benchmarks may enhance co-movements with the Bloomberg Gender Equality Index. Policymakers should promote transparency and initiatives that support gender diversity to improve market stability.
本文研究了全球金融市场中彭博性别平等指数和摩根士丹利资本国际公司世界指数的关系。主要目的是从分数角度分析 2014-2021 年各指数的整合程度。该方法通过分数积分来评估两个指数的一致性和积分水平,结果显示,它们的积分阶数接近 1,且没有均值回归行为的证据,具有显著的一致性。在使用恩格尔和格兰杰的经典两步法研究两个指数之间的潜在协整关系时,估计误差的积分阶数非常接近 1,没有协整的迹象。然而,采用更稳健的分数 CVAR(FCVAR)方法,结果有力地支持了协整假设,表明有证据表明两个指数之间存在长期的共同变动。研究结果表明,投资策略应纳入性别多元化标准,因为符合这些基准的公司可能会增强与彭博性别平等指数的协整性。政策制定者应促进支持性别多元化的透明度和举措,以提高市场稳定性。
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引用次数: 0
Post-Acquisition Operating Performance of Acquiring Firms following Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions 跨国并购后被收购企业的收购后经营业绩
IF 2.6 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.3390/economies12070172
Aamir Khan, David Kalisz
This study investigates the firms’ performance following cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) from 2000 to 2022, employing the generalized method of moments (GMM) technique within the French context. Grounded in the theories of organizational learning and the institutional-based view, the empirical findings reveal that acquiring firms exhibit an improved long-term performance after engaging in cross-border M&A deals. Additionally, acquisition experience and industry relatedness significantly enhance the firms’ performance. Institutional quality and cultural similarity are also found to positively moderate the impact of cross-border M&As on firms’ performance.
本研究以法国为背景,采用广义矩量法(GMM)技术,对 2000 年至 2022 年期间跨国并购(M&A)后的企业绩效进行了研究。基于组织学习理论和基于制度的观点,实证研究结果表明,参与跨国并购交易后,并购企业的长期绩效有所提高。此外,并购经验和行业相关性也能显著提高企业的绩效。研究还发现,制度质量和文化相似性能积极缓和跨国并购对企业绩效的影响。
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引用次数: 0
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Economies
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