This paper examines the market reaction to the European bank stress test announcement and results release events. Using event study methodology (calculating abnormal returns on a three-day period around the event dates), we find that the market reacts differently between the announcement event and the results release event. We also show that the market seems to positively overreact one day before each event, and that this positive reaction is either fully or partially reversed one day after the event. We thus conclude that researchers should consider both events when exploring the market reaction to stress-testing exercises.
{"title":"Stock Markets and Stress Test Announcements: Evidence from European Banks","authors":"Christos Floros, Efstathios Karpouzis, Nikolaos Daskalakis","doi":"10.3390/economies12070171","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12070171","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the market reaction to the European bank stress test announcement and results release events. Using event study methodology (calculating abnormal returns on a three-day period around the event dates), we find that the market reacts differently between the announcement event and the results release event. We also show that the market seems to positively overreact one day before each event, and that this positive reaction is either fully or partially reversed one day after the event. We thus conclude that researchers should consider both events when exploring the market reaction to stress-testing exercises.","PeriodicalId":52214,"journal":{"name":"Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141550654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-04DOI: 10.3390/economies12070173
P. Bergeijk, Gina M. Ledda
This article provides a novel approach to the traditional constant market share (CMS) analysis recognizing the importance of global production networks and fragmentation that necessitate using trade in value added (TiVA) rather than gross trade. We discuss how the components of a CMS analysis need to be (re)interpreted and apply our Constant Value Added Share (CVAS) analysis to the Philippines in the years 1995–2020 using the latest TiVA 2023 dataset (released in November 2023) and compare CMS to CVAS in order to facilitate understanding the contribution of the novel approach. The CVAS analysis finds that while Philippine and world Value Added grew at par, the country lost competitiveness. Traditional CMS suggests a smaller loss of competitiveness. Our approach also identifies specific sectoral weaknesses (i.e., computer and electronics exports) and emerging strengths (technology-related business services) that are unclear in CMS analysis. We argue that Constant Value Added Share analysis is useful for assessing the global value chain performance of other developing countries as well.
{"title":"Constant Value Added Share Analysis: A Novel Trade Decomposition Technique with an Application to the Philippines","authors":"P. Bergeijk, Gina M. Ledda","doi":"10.3390/economies12070173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12070173","url":null,"abstract":"This article provides a novel approach to the traditional constant market share (CMS) analysis recognizing the importance of global production networks and fragmentation that necessitate using trade in value added (TiVA) rather than gross trade. We discuss how the components of a CMS analysis need to be (re)interpreted and apply our Constant Value Added Share (CVAS) analysis to the Philippines in the years 1995–2020 using the latest TiVA 2023 dataset (released in November 2023) and compare CMS to CVAS in order to facilitate understanding the contribution of the novel approach. The CVAS analysis finds that while Philippine and world Value Added grew at par, the country lost competitiveness. Traditional CMS suggests a smaller loss of competitiveness. Our approach also identifies specific sectoral weaknesses (i.e., computer and electronics exports) and emerging strengths (technology-related business services) that are unclear in CMS analysis. We argue that Constant Value Added Share analysis is useful for assessing the global value chain performance of other developing countries as well.","PeriodicalId":52214,"journal":{"name":"Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141677535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-02DOI: 10.3390/economies12070170
Nini Johana Marín-Rodríguez, Juan David Gonzalez-Ruiz, Sergio Botero
We studied the relationship between sustainable investment indexes and examine whether this relationship varies in bullish, bearish, and stable financial markets. To understand this issue more deeply, we analyzed the connectedness between three indexes—the Sustainable Impact investments, Paris-aligned stocks, and green bonds indexes—using the daily closing prices from 1 June 2017 to 15 April 2024, encompassing 1793 observations. We used a quantile vector autoregressive (QVAR) model to understand the dynamic relationship among the considered indices. The findings indicate that sustainable investments are strongly interconnected in both high and low quantiles, but this connection weakens significantly during periods of market stability. The Sustainable Impact investments and Paris-aligned stocks indexes are net transmitters of impacts to other sustainable alternatives, while the green bonds index is a net receiver. We also observed an increase in interconnectedness across all quantiles during the pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine military conflict, and changes in the European Union and the United States’ monetary policies.
{"title":"Connectedness between Sustainable Investment Indexes: The QVAR Approach","authors":"Nini Johana Marín-Rodríguez, Juan David Gonzalez-Ruiz, Sergio Botero","doi":"10.3390/economies12070170","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12070170","url":null,"abstract":"We studied the relationship between sustainable investment indexes and examine whether this relationship varies in bullish, bearish, and stable financial markets. To understand this issue more deeply, we analyzed the connectedness between three indexes—the Sustainable Impact investments, Paris-aligned stocks, and green bonds indexes—using the daily closing prices from 1 June 2017 to 15 April 2024, encompassing 1793 observations. We used a quantile vector autoregressive (QVAR) model to understand the dynamic relationship among the considered indices. The findings indicate that sustainable investments are strongly interconnected in both high and low quantiles, but this connection weakens significantly during periods of market stability. The Sustainable Impact investments and Paris-aligned stocks indexes are net transmitters of impacts to other sustainable alternatives, while the green bonds index is a net receiver. We also observed an increase in interconnectedness across all quantiles during the pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine military conflict, and changes in the European Union and the United States’ monetary policies.","PeriodicalId":52214,"journal":{"name":"Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141529279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.3390/economies12070168
Christos Floros, Dimitrios Vortelinos, Ioannis Chatziantoniou
We examine the international impact of recent financial crises on contagion dynamics within international equity portfolios. First, we highlight the importance of macroeconomics for portfolio weighting for each region, and then we examine contagion via a structural regime-switching model and a contagion test. We also examine sources of contagion using regime variables, crisis events, and macroeconomic variables. In particular, we study the Argentine debt crisis, the US financial crisis, and the EU sovereign debt crisis. The macroeconomic variables include changes in market capitalization, trade integration, GDP growth, inflation rate, and interest rate. We also employ two classifications, one relating to the portfolio weighting scheme and another one that considers implied global and regional betas. The empirical findings reveal the existence of financial contagion for all the crises that we investigate. Both methods produce similar results. Stronger contagion is evident for global rather than regional betas. Europe is the region with the highest level of contagion and the one mostly affected by the crises. As far as macroeconomic variables are concerned, they are very important in two ways. They statistically significantly explain contagion, while they also reveal contagion under various portfolio weighting schemes. Both methods suggest that the Argentinian crisis mainly contributes to contagion. The research implications suggest that asset allocation and portfolio management should consider both the global and the regional aspects of contagion as differences can occur.
{"title":"Crises and Contagion in Equity Portfolios","authors":"Christos Floros, Dimitrios Vortelinos, Ioannis Chatziantoniou","doi":"10.3390/economies12070168","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12070168","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the international impact of recent financial crises on contagion dynamics within international equity portfolios. First, we highlight the importance of macroeconomics for portfolio weighting for each region, and then we examine contagion via a structural regime-switching model and a contagion test. We also examine sources of contagion using regime variables, crisis events, and macroeconomic variables. In particular, we study the Argentine debt crisis, the US financial crisis, and the EU sovereign debt crisis. The macroeconomic variables include changes in market capitalization, trade integration, GDP growth, inflation rate, and interest rate. We also employ two classifications, one relating to the portfolio weighting scheme and another one that considers implied global and regional betas. The empirical findings reveal the existence of financial contagion for all the crises that we investigate. Both methods produce similar results. Stronger contagion is evident for global rather than regional betas. Europe is the region with the highest level of contagion and the one mostly affected by the crises. As far as macroeconomic variables are concerned, they are very important in two ways. They statistically significantly explain contagion, while they also reveal contagion under various portfolio weighting schemes. Both methods suggest that the Argentinian crisis mainly contributes to contagion. The research implications suggest that asset allocation and portfolio management should consider both the global and the regional aspects of contagion as differences can occur.","PeriodicalId":52214,"journal":{"name":"Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141519126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.3390/economies12070169
Molepa Seabela, Kanayo Ogujiuba, Maria Eggink
The issue of income disparity has long plagued South Africa because of the political environment that existed before the country’s 1994 democratic transition. Based on the widely used Gini index, which gauges global inequality, the nation routinely has some of the highest rates of income disparity in the world. Income inequality in South Africa keeps rising even after a number of frameworks and policies have been put in place, which has a big influence on society. Thus, it is essential to comprehend the causes of income disparity and put suitable policies in place to remedy it. The purpose of this study is to look into the relationship between South Africa’s income disparity and its determinants. Using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach, this study empirically examines the effects of government spending on social grants, gross savings, population growth, and economic growth on income inequality from 1975 to 2017. Data on the Gini index are sourced from the Standardized World Income Inequality Database (SWIID). Findings reveal a statistically significant negative correlation between government spending on social grants and income inequality. Moreover, income inequality demonstrates a negative relationship with both gross savings and economic growth. However, population growth exhibits a positive correlation with income inequality. This study highlights the significance of implementing a comprehensive strategy to address income inequality in South Africa. This strategy should involve augmenting government expenditure on social grants, cultivating a savings culture within households, and enacting policies that incentivize job creation, particularly in areas with rapid population growth. In addition to making a substantial contribution to the body of evidence already available on income disparity, this study offers insightful information to policymakers working to improve the socioeconomic climate in South Africa.
{"title":"Determinants of Income Inequality in South Africa: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach","authors":"Molepa Seabela, Kanayo Ogujiuba, Maria Eggink","doi":"10.3390/economies12070169","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12070169","url":null,"abstract":"The issue of income disparity has long plagued South Africa because of the political environment that existed before the country’s 1994 democratic transition. Based on the widely used Gini index, which gauges global inequality, the nation routinely has some of the highest rates of income disparity in the world. Income inequality in South Africa keeps rising even after a number of frameworks and policies have been put in place, which has a big influence on society. Thus, it is essential to comprehend the causes of income disparity and put suitable policies in place to remedy it. The purpose of this study is to look into the relationship between South Africa’s income disparity and its determinants. Using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach, this study empirically examines the effects of government spending on social grants, gross savings, population growth, and economic growth on income inequality from 1975 to 2017. Data on the Gini index are sourced from the Standardized World Income Inequality Database (SWIID). Findings reveal a statistically significant negative correlation between government spending on social grants and income inequality. Moreover, income inequality demonstrates a negative relationship with both gross savings and economic growth. However, population growth exhibits a positive correlation with income inequality. This study highlights the significance of implementing a comprehensive strategy to address income inequality in South Africa. This strategy should involve augmenting government expenditure on social grants, cultivating a savings culture within households, and enacting policies that incentivize job creation, particularly in areas with rapid population growth. In addition to making a substantial contribution to the body of evidence already available on income disparity, this study offers insightful information to policymakers working to improve the socioeconomic climate in South Africa.","PeriodicalId":52214,"journal":{"name":"Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141519127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In an increasingly mobile world, the integration of immigrants and displaced individuals is an important factor in creating cohesive and inclusive societies. Integration has different dimensions; this scoping review examines the conceptualization and measurement of economic integration among immigrants and refugees in the United States. Quantitative peer-reviewed journal papers measuring or conceptualizing the economic integration of first-generation documented adult immigrants or refugees in the United States, as well as relevant conceptual or theory papers on this topic, were included in the review. The search strategy included an online search of the Web of Science Core Collection, PsycINFO, Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts (ASSIA), and EconLit. Additional search strategies included scanning the reference lists of studies identified as relevant in the initial database search. An analysis of 72 studies included in the review using a data extraction table reveals seven key domains of economic integration: income and economic security, employment and occupational categories, assets and use of financial services, neighborhood and housing, health, education, and use of public assistance. Income and economic security emerged as the most common indicators of integration in the reviewed studies. Notably, less than half of the reviewed publications had a multidimensional approach to defining or measuring economic integration, and the majority of studies were focused on immigrants, with a smaller proportion dedicated to refugees. This review emphasizes the need for comprehensive frameworks in assessing economic integration among immigrants and refugees, reflecting the multifaceted nature of their economic integration experiences.
{"title":"Understanding Economic Integration in Immigrant and Refugee Populations: A Scoping Review of Concepts and Metrics in the United States","authors":"Mitra Naseh, Jihye Lee, Yingying Zeng, Proscovia Nabunya, Valencia Alvarez, Meena Safi","doi":"10.3390/economies12070167","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12070167","url":null,"abstract":"In an increasingly mobile world, the integration of immigrants and displaced individuals is an important factor in creating cohesive and inclusive societies. Integration has different dimensions; this scoping review examines the conceptualization and measurement of economic integration among immigrants and refugees in the United States. Quantitative peer-reviewed journal papers measuring or conceptualizing the economic integration of first-generation documented adult immigrants or refugees in the United States, as well as relevant conceptual or theory papers on this topic, were included in the review. The search strategy included an online search of the Web of Science Core Collection, PsycINFO, Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts (ASSIA), and EconLit. Additional search strategies included scanning the reference lists of studies identified as relevant in the initial database search. An analysis of 72 studies included in the review using a data extraction table reveals seven key domains of economic integration: income and economic security, employment and occupational categories, assets and use of financial services, neighborhood and housing, health, education, and use of public assistance. Income and economic security emerged as the most common indicators of integration in the reviewed studies. Notably, less than half of the reviewed publications had a multidimensional approach to defining or measuring economic integration, and the majority of studies were focused on immigrants, with a smaller proportion dedicated to refugees. This review emphasizes the need for comprehensive frameworks in assessing economic integration among immigrants and refugees, reflecting the multifaceted nature of their economic integration experiences.","PeriodicalId":52214,"journal":{"name":"Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141505772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-28DOI: 10.3390/economies12070166
Segun Thompson Bolarinwa, Munacinga Simatele
This study examines the causal relationship between informality and globalisation in 30 African countries. It deviates from traditional research by adopting a bi-directional framework to address reverse causality. By applying the DH causality method in both linear and nonlinear frameworks, this research challenges the assumption of a linear relationship and finds that the causal structure is better explained within a nonlinear asymmetric context. This paper provides recommendations based on the identified causal relationships. For countries in which globalisation leads to informality, such as Angola, Congo, Guinea, Gambia, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, Tunisia, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, the paper suggests policy measures to integrate the informal sector into the formal economy. These measures include designing programmes to facilitate transition, implementing skill development initiatives, and establishing support mechanisms for entrepreneurship and small businesses. Additionally, this paper advises the development of social safety nets, improved market access, effective monitoring and regulation mechanisms, education on the benefits of globalisation, and international cooperation. For countries experiencing positive shocks from informality to globalisation, this paper recommends targeted support programs for entrepreneurship, initiatives to formalize the sector, the enhancement of market access, and skill development tailored to the needs of the informal sector. These policy recommendations aim to capitalize on the positive shocks in informality by fostering entrepreneurship, formalization, market access, and skill development. In the case of negative shocks in globalisation leading to positive shocks in informality, the paper suggests implementing resilience-building policies for the informal sector during economic downturns, establishing social safety nets, and adopting flexible labour policies.
{"title":"Asymmetric Analysis of Causal Relations in the Informality–Globalisation Nexus in Africa","authors":"Segun Thompson Bolarinwa, Munacinga Simatele","doi":"10.3390/economies12070166","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12070166","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the causal relationship between informality and globalisation in 30 African countries. It deviates from traditional research by adopting a bi-directional framework to address reverse causality. By applying the DH causality method in both linear and nonlinear frameworks, this research challenges the assumption of a linear relationship and finds that the causal structure is better explained within a nonlinear asymmetric context. This paper provides recommendations based on the identified causal relationships. For countries in which globalisation leads to informality, such as Angola, Congo, Guinea, Gambia, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, Tunisia, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, the paper suggests policy measures to integrate the informal sector into the formal economy. These measures include designing programmes to facilitate transition, implementing skill development initiatives, and establishing support mechanisms for entrepreneurship and small businesses. Additionally, this paper advises the development of social safety nets, improved market access, effective monitoring and regulation mechanisms, education on the benefits of globalisation, and international cooperation. For countries experiencing positive shocks from informality to globalisation, this paper recommends targeted support programs for entrepreneurship, initiatives to formalize the sector, the enhancement of market access, and skill development tailored to the needs of the informal sector. These policy recommendations aim to capitalize on the positive shocks in informality by fostering entrepreneurship, formalization, market access, and skill development. In the case of negative shocks in globalisation leading to positive shocks in informality, the paper suggests implementing resilience-building policies for the informal sector during economic downturns, establishing social safety nets, and adopting flexible labour policies.","PeriodicalId":52214,"journal":{"name":"Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141519065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-27DOI: 10.3390/economies12070163
Akifumi Kuchiki
A “segment” is a component of the organization of an agglomeration. The organization of agglomeration is formed by the construction of segments. Manufacturing agglomeration segments can be divided into four main categories: human resources including engineers, physical infrastructure, institutions, and living environment. Each segment then has a specific function in the process of building industrial agglomeration. We focus on the process of building segments in agglomeration formation. We define a “brake segment” as a segment that has a “function” to decelerate the speed of the process. The purpose of this paper is to identify the existence of this brake segment in the process of constructing the segments of the manufacturing agglomeration. We obtained the following three results. First, a modified version of the spatial economic model yields that the number of agglomerated firms is inversely related to the wages of skilled workers. Second, a factor analysis of the data on investment environment costs indicates that in the case of the manufacturing industry, the number of agglomerated firms are inversely related to the wages of engineers. Third, the factor analysis of the six countries in the JBIC survey reveals that the segment that poses the investment issue in foreign direct investment in India is engineers as human capital. We conclude that engineers as human capital are a brake segment. The implication is that the sustained development of “engineers” as human capital is essential for the success of manufacturing industry agglomeration.
{"title":"Brake Segment for Agglomeration Policy: Engineers as Human Capital","authors":"Akifumi Kuchiki","doi":"10.3390/economies12070163","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12070163","url":null,"abstract":"A “segment” is a component of the organization of an agglomeration. The organization of agglomeration is formed by the construction of segments. Manufacturing agglomeration segments can be divided into four main categories: human resources including engineers, physical infrastructure, institutions, and living environment. Each segment then has a specific function in the process of building industrial agglomeration. We focus on the process of building segments in agglomeration formation. We define a “brake segment” as a segment that has a “function” to decelerate the speed of the process. The purpose of this paper is to identify the existence of this brake segment in the process of constructing the segments of the manufacturing agglomeration. We obtained the following three results. First, a modified version of the spatial economic model yields that the number of agglomerated firms is inversely related to the wages of skilled workers. Second, a factor analysis of the data on investment environment costs indicates that in the case of the manufacturing industry, the number of agglomerated firms are inversely related to the wages of engineers. Third, the factor analysis of the six countries in the JBIC survey reveals that the segment that poses the investment issue in foreign direct investment in India is engineers as human capital. We conclude that engineers as human capital are a brake segment. The implication is that the sustained development of “engineers” as human capital is essential for the success of manufacturing industry agglomeration.","PeriodicalId":52214,"journal":{"name":"Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141519029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-27DOI: 10.3390/economies12070165
Dante Iván Agatón Lombera, Diego Andrés Cardoso López, Jesús Antonio López Cabrera, José Antonio Nuñez Mora
This study delves into the impacts of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 health crisis on U.S. financial indices, exploring the intricate relationship between economic shocks and these indices during downturns. Using Markov switching regression models and control variables, including GDP, consumer sentiment, industrial production, and the ratio of inventories-to-sale, it quantifies the effects of these crises on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) from Q1 2000 to Q2 2023, covering crucial moments of both crises and stable periods (dichotomous variables). Results reveal that the 2008 crisis significantly heightened financial volatility and depreciated the valuation of S&P 500 and DJIA indicators, while the COVID-19 crisis had a diverse impact on market dynamics, particularly negatively affecting specific sectors. This study underscores the importance of consumer confidence and inventory management in mitigating financial volatility and emphasises the need for robust policy measures to address economic shocks, enhance financial stability, and alleviate future crises, especially during endogenous crises such as financial downturns. This research sheds light on the nuanced impact of crises on financial markets and the broader economy, revealing the intricate dynamics shaping market behaviour during turbulent times.
{"title":"Market Reactions to U.S. Financial Indices: A Comparison of the GFC versus the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis","authors":"Dante Iván Agatón Lombera, Diego Andrés Cardoso López, Jesús Antonio López Cabrera, José Antonio Nuñez Mora","doi":"10.3390/economies12070165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12070165","url":null,"abstract":"This study delves into the impacts of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 health crisis on U.S. financial indices, exploring the intricate relationship between economic shocks and these indices during downturns. Using Markov switching regression models and control variables, including GDP, consumer sentiment, industrial production, and the ratio of inventories-to-sale, it quantifies the effects of these crises on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) from Q1 2000 to Q2 2023, covering crucial moments of both crises and stable periods (dichotomous variables). Results reveal that the 2008 crisis significantly heightened financial volatility and depreciated the valuation of S&P 500 and DJIA indicators, while the COVID-19 crisis had a diverse impact on market dynamics, particularly negatively affecting specific sectors. This study underscores the importance of consumer confidence and inventory management in mitigating financial volatility and emphasises the need for robust policy measures to address economic shocks, enhance financial stability, and alleviate future crises, especially during endogenous crises such as financial downturns. This research sheds light on the nuanced impact of crises on financial markets and the broader economy, revealing the intricate dynamics shaping market behaviour during turbulent times.","PeriodicalId":52214,"journal":{"name":"Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141519066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-27DOI: 10.3390/economies12070164
Paolo Bartesaghi, Gian Paolo Clemente, Rosanna Grassi
We propose a new centrality measure based on a self-adaptive epidemic model characterized by an endogenous reinforcement mechanism in the transmission of information between nodes. We provide a strategy to assign to nodes a centrality score that depends, in an eigenvector centrality scheme, on that of all the elements of the network, nodes and edges, connected to it. We parameterize this score as a function of a reinforcement factor, which for the first time implements the intensity of the interaction between the network of nodes and that of the edges. In this proposal, a local centrality measure representing the steady state of a diffusion process incorporates the global information encoded in the whole network. This measure proves effective in identifying the most influential nodes in the propagation of rumors/shocks/behaviors in a social network. In the context of financial networks, it allows us to highlight strategic assets on correlation networks. The dependence on a coupling factor between graph and line graph also enables the different asset responses in terms of ranking, especially on scale-free networks obtained as minimum spanning trees from correlation networks.
{"title":"A Self-Adaptive Centrality Measure for Asset Correlation Networks","authors":"Paolo Bartesaghi, Gian Paolo Clemente, Rosanna Grassi","doi":"10.3390/economies12070164","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12070164","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a new centrality measure based on a self-adaptive epidemic model characterized by an endogenous reinforcement mechanism in the transmission of information between nodes. We provide a strategy to assign to nodes a centrality score that depends, in an eigenvector centrality scheme, on that of all the elements of the network, nodes and edges, connected to it. We parameterize this score as a function of a reinforcement factor, which for the first time implements the intensity of the interaction between the network of nodes and that of the edges. In this proposal, a local centrality measure representing the steady state of a diffusion process incorporates the global information encoded in the whole network. This measure proves effective in identifying the most influential nodes in the propagation of rumors/shocks/behaviors in a social network. In the context of financial networks, it allows us to highlight strategic assets on correlation networks. The dependence on a coupling factor between graph and line graph also enables the different asset responses in terms of ranking, especially on scale-free networks obtained as minimum spanning trees from correlation networks.","PeriodicalId":52214,"journal":{"name":"Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141519024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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