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Complex Risk Analysis of Investing in Agriculture ETFs 投资农业etf的复杂风险分析
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2020-11-10 DOI: 10.22068/IJIEPR.31.4.579
Kaminskyi Andrii, Nehrey Maryna, Komar Mariana
The aim of the paper is to present a complex risk analysis of investing in agriculture Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). The specific characteristics of agricultural investments should be taken into account as from the direct financial investments into agricultural ETFs, as for the general portfolio approach applying. To achieve the objectives of the work, the authors structured agriculture ETFs into 6 classes, which represent different types of ETFs. A special sample of 26 agricultural ETFs was formed. A complex risk analysis consisted of applying 5 different conceptual approaches to measuring investment risk. In particular, approaches based on measuring variability, applying the concept of Value-at-Risk are applied. The approach of estimating the shocks of changes in the profitability of the asset class in question is applied. The risk level in the aspect of sensitivity to changes in stock returns, bonds and the uncertainty index EPU is investigated. Built portfolios with minimal risk. Obtained results can be applied for investment decisions.
本文的目的是提出一个复杂的风险分析投资于农业交易所交易基金(etf)。农业投资的具体特点应该从对农业etf的直接财政投资中考虑到,正如一般投资组合方法所适用的那样。为了实现工作目标,作者将农业etf分为6类,代表了不同类型的etf。形成了26只农业etf的特殊样本。一个复杂的风险分析包括应用5种不同的概念方法来衡量投资风险。特别是,基于测量变异性的方法,应用了风险价值的概念。本文采用了对所讨论的资产类别的盈利能力变化的冲击进行估计的方法。对股票收益、债券和不确定性指数EPU变化敏感性方面的风险水平进行了研究。以最小的风险构建投资组合。所得结果可用于投资决策。
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引用次数: 4
Military Expenditures and World Economic Growth under Hybrid Warfare Conditions 混合战争条件下的军费开支与世界经济增长
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2020-11-10 DOI: 10.22068/IJIEPR.31.4.511
Oleksandr Sokhatskyi, O. Dluhopolskyi, Roman Movchan, O. Taranukha
The article examines the impact of the dynamics of military expenditures, public debt, arms exports on the economic growth of the six countries (US, China, Russia, Israel, Ukraine, Moldova). The paper empirically tested the hypothesis of the possibility of further maintaining the positive macroeconomic effects in the process of confronting and persistent ‘hybrid’ military conflicts in either ‘hot’ or ‘frozen’ phases. The model characterizes the effects of factors and their change over time as well as features of the aggregate and the specificity of the development of individual objects. This allowed us to construct an object-dynamic regression model to determine the dependence of the development of national economies, namely GDP growth rates, for countries in a state of ‘hybrid’ war. The definition of these dependencies provides the opportunity to make recommendations on the use of adequate models of forecasting military expenditure for the country, which aims to achieve the goals of sustainable development under the increasing military threats.
本文考察了军事开支、公共债务、武器出口对六个国家(美国、中国、俄罗斯、以色列、乌克兰、摩尔多瓦)经济增长的影响。本文实证检验了在“热”或“冷”阶段对抗和持续的“混合”军事冲突过程中进一步保持积极宏观经济效应的可能性。该模型描述了因素的影响及其随时间的变化,以及总体特征和单个对象发展的特殊性。这使我们能够构建一个对象动态回归模型,以确定处于“混合”战争状态的国家的国民经济发展的依赖性,即GDP增长率。这些依赖关系的定义使我们有机会就使用适当的模型预测该国的军事开支提出建议,其目的是在日益增加的军事威胁下实现可持续发展的目标。
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引用次数: 0
Financial monitoring in the bank as a market instrument in the conditions of innovative development and digitalization of economy: management and legal aspects of the risk-based approach 银行财务监控作为市场工具在经济创新发展和数字化条件下:基于风险管理和法律方面的方法
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2020-11-10 DOI: 10.22068/IJIEPR.31.4.559
V. Vovk, Y. Zhezherun, O. Bilovodska, V. Babenko, A. Biriukova
The article examines foreign and domestic experience in organizing financial monitoring systems, systematizes the requirements for its implementation in Ukraine. The basic legal norms, enshrined in the joint directives of the European Parliament and of the Council of the EU, and underlying the national financial monitoring systems of the EU countries and Ukraine have been also analyzed. Taking into account the fact that the risk-based approach is the main basis for the effective implementation of all FATF recommendations, the nature of the risk of money laundering / financing of terrorism and the criteria for their assessment have been investigated. A scheme of improving the process of financial monitoring in a bank has been developed, as well as a number of measures have been proposed to raise the level of adhering to the legislation in the field of anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing by the banking sector.
本文考察了国外和国内在组织财务监测系统方面的经验,并对乌克兰实施财务监测系统的要求进行了系统的分析。还分析了欧洲议会和欧盟理事会联合指令中所载的基本法律规范,以及欧盟国家和乌克兰国家金融监测系统的基础。考虑到基于风险的方法是有效执行FATF所有建议的主要基础,对洗钱/资助恐怖主义风险的性质及其评估标准进行了调查。制定了一项改进银行财务监测程序的计划,并提出了一些措施,以提高银行部门在反洗钱和反恐怖主义融资领域遵守立法的水平。
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引用次数: 13
Dynamics of forecasting the development of renewable energy technologies in Ukraine and Chile 预测乌克兰和智利可再生能源技术发展的动态
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2020-11-10 DOI: 10.22068/IJIEPR.31.4.587
V. Babenko, O. Rayevnyeva, D. Zherlitsyn, O. Dovgal, Goncharenko Natalia, M. Tetyana
The processes of transformation of the energy space, namely the impact of alternative energy resources on it, are characterized by changes in the national economy in general and in the energy market in particular. The results of the analysis confirmed the significant dependence of electricity production indicators on renewable sources and such factors as GDP, CO2 emissions, total electricity production, which requires improvement of organizational and economic bases for policy development of state support for renewable energy technologies in countries with exogenous factors. The interdependence between electricity production from renewable sources and economic indicators in Ukrainian-Chilean relations using macroeconomic multifactor analysis based on the correlation method allowed to identify the most influential factors.
能源空间的转变过程,即替代能源对其的影响,其特点是一般国民经济特别是能源市场的变化。分析结果证实了电力生产指标对可再生能源以及GDP、CO2排放、总发电量等因素的显著依赖,这就需要在有外生因素的国家完善国家支持可再生能源技术的政策制定的组织和经济基础。乌克兰-智利关系中可再生能源电力生产与经济指标之间的相互依存关系使用基于相关性方法的宏观经济多因素分析,可以确定最具影响力的因素。
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引用次数: 5
Using Multidimensional Scaling for Assessment Economic Development of Regions 基于多维尺度的区域经济发展评价
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2020-11-10 DOI: 10.22068/IJIEPR.31.4.597
P. Hryhoruk, N. Khrushch, S. Grygoruk
Addressing socio-economic development issues are strategic and most important for any country. Multidimensional statistical analysis methods, including comprehensive index assessment, have been successfully used to address this challenge, but they don't cover all aspects of development, leaving some gap in the development of multidimensional metrics. The purpose of the study is to construct a latent metric space based on the use of multidimensional scaling. Based on statistics showing the economic development of Ukrainian regions, two-dimensional space of latent scales was constructed and Ukrainian's regions were positioned in this space. The results were interpreted meaningfully. This use of multidimensional statistical analysis confirms its usefulness for measuring the economic development of regions and allows their comprehensive assessment and comparison.
解决社会经济发展问题对任何国家都具有战略性和最重要的意义。包括综合指标评估在内的多维统计分析方法已经成功地用于解决这一挑战,但它们并没有涵盖发展的所有方面,在多维指标的开发中留下了一些差距。本研究的目的是在使用多维尺度的基础上构建一个潜在的度量空间。在统计乌克兰地区经济发展情况的基础上,构建了潜在尺度的二维空间,并将乌克兰地区定位于该空间。对结果进行了有意义的解释。这种多维统计分析的使用证实了它对衡量区域经济发展的有用性,并使它们能够得到全面的评估和比较。
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引用次数: 3
Integrated Model of the Competitive Higher Education: Legal, Economic and Psycho-pedagogical Aspects 高等竞争教育的一体化模式:法律、经济和心理教育
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2020-11-10 DOI: 10.22068/IJIEPR.31.4.535
N. Kholiavko, Tetiana Chekhovych, O. Mirshuk, V. Vovk
In the era of digitization and globalization, national higher education systems face a number of challenges of the exogenous nature. Intensification of the competition in the educational services market necessitates the search for new ways of increasing the level of the competitiveness of universities and higher education systems as a whole. Development of theoretical, methodological and applied foundations of the formation and implementation of the integrated model of the competitive higher education becomes relevant. Application of the interdisciplinary approach to the research allows combining tools and techniques of different sciences. Economic, psycho-pedagogical, legal and managerial blocks are structural components of the proposed model of the competitive higher education. The effective implementation of such a model requires the involvement of a wide range of stakeholders and the impact of changing factors in the exogenous environment. Successful implementation of the model requires the existence of a developed regulatory framework harmonized with the provisions of the EU legislation. Practical implementation of the model concept proposed in this article will increase the competitiveness of the national higher education system in a highly competitive global scientific and educational area.
在数字化和全球化时代,国家高等教育系统面临着许多外生性的挑战。随着教育服务市场竞争的加剧,必须寻找新的途径来提高大学和整个高等教育系统的竞争力水平。发展高等教育一体化竞争模式的理论、方法和应用基础的形成与实施具有重要意义。在研究中应用跨学科方法,可以将不同科学的工具和技术结合起来。经济、心理教育、法律和管理障碍是竞争性高等教育模式的结构性组成部分。这种模式的有效实施需要广泛的利益相关者的参与和外生环境中变化因素的影响。该模式的成功实施需要一个与欧盟立法规定相协调的发达监管框架的存在。本文提出的模式概念的实际实施将提高国家高等教育系统在竞争激烈的全球科学和教育领域的竞争力。
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引用次数: 2
An Integral Method of Evaluating the Innovative Capacity of Enterprises 企业创新能力评价的整体方法
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2020-11-10 DOI: 10.22068/IJIEPR.31.4.637
O. Kuzmin, O. Zhyhalo, K. Doroshkevych
Innovative capacity as a potential ability of an enterprise to innovative development is manifested in the process of formation and realization of an innovative product, which can be embodied in various forms. In the article innovation capacity is considered as a complex concept that covers the innovative output of the enterprise and the reserve for providing innovative capacity, which can make the difference between the innovative capacity and the current state of the innovative output of the enterprise. In order to improve the level of management processes in the enterprise, the article improves the method of evaluation the innovative capacity, which is based on the use of a threedimensional space model of the dependence of the innovative capacity on the level of loading vectors of technique of the enterprise (X-axis), applied innovative technologies (Y-axis) and resources (Z-axis) using AHP-model (analytical-hierarchical process model) and certain functional dependencies that indicate the state of innovative capacity of the enterprise and allow to identify the reserve for providing innovative capacity.The system of indicators designed to measure the enterprise's innovation capacity is developed on the basis of the AHP-model (analytical-hierarchical process model), which contains two levels: 1) partial indicators designed to assess the level of loading of vectors of the threedimensional space model of the enterprise's innovation capacity; 2) generalized indicators by which the level of innovation capacity is determined. The article uses the relative weight of indicators, which is calculated by forming a matrix of judgments and evaluating the components of the vector of its priorities.
创新能力是企业创新发展的一种潜在能力,它表现在创新产品的形成和实现过程中,可以表现为多种形式。本文认为创新能力是一个复杂的概念,它涵盖了企业的创新产出和提供创新能力的储备,它可以使创新能力与企业创新产出的现状产生差异。为了提高企业的管理流程水平,本文改进了创新能力的评价方法,该方法基于利用企业技术负载向量(x轴)水平对创新能力依赖的三维空间模型;利用ahp模型(层次分析法模型)和一定的功能依赖关系,应用创新技术(y轴)和资源(z轴),表明企业的创新能力状态,并允许识别提供创新能力的储备。在层次分析法的基础上,构建了衡量企业创新能力的指标体系,该指标体系包含两个层次:1)部分指标,用于评价企业创新能力三维空间模型中向量的承载水平;(2)衡量创新能力水平的广义指标。本文使用指标的相对权重,这是通过形成判断矩阵和评估其优先级向量的组成部分来计算的。
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引用次数: 2
New Statistical and Econometric Approaches to Assessing Financial Processes (Banking Sector, Public Debt, Financial Management) 评估财务流程的新统计和计量经济学方法(银行业,公共债务,财务管理)
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2020-11-10 DOI: 10.22068/IJIEPR.31.4.609
Zakharin Sergii, Viblyi Petro, Bebko Svitlana, Nahorna Nadiia, A. Sergiy
The results of studies on the development of new statistical and econometric approaches to modeling budget policy is presented. The obtained results are applied on the example of tax revenue modeling. The authors note the importance of ensuring transparency and predictability of state financial policy, the realisticness of economic forecasts, because this is the basis of budget modeling. It is also necessary to take into account the various economic cycles that affect the economic dynamics in a particular period of time and in a particular country (or group of countries). Accounting for various factors, including through the use of mathematical methods, will allow to plan reforms with a scientific position. In particular, this is especially true in connection with the introduction of multi-year budget planning. The most important issue of budget policy is the planning of tax revenues (taxes form 90% of budget revenues). To identify the main threats to the tax base, the phenomenon of “tax passes” was used, which is based on an assessment of the effectiveness of a tax credit. The main participants in the formation of the “gross gap” in the value added tax revenues in Ukraine are shown. A correlation and regression analysis of the natural logarithms of the gross domestic product and tax revenues is carried out. This allowed us to determine the elasticity of tax revenues and GDP in Ukraine. A change in GDP directly affects the amount of tax payments to the budget, and the rate of change of indicators is proportional and changes insignificantly. These results allow us to strategically model the reform of discretionary tax policy mechanisms based on a quantitative assessment of tax gaps and the elasticity of tax payments. The authors were able to substantiate some proposals for reforming the budget policy regarding tax revenues.
本文介绍了对预算政策建模的新统计和计量经济学方法的研究结果。所得结果应用于税收模型的实例。作者指出了确保国家财政政策的透明度和可预测性以及经济预测的现实性的重要性,因为这是预算建模的基础。还必须考虑到影响特定时期和特定国家(或国家集团)经济动态的各种经济周期。考虑各种因素,包括通过使用数学方法,将有助于以科学的立场规划改革。在实行多年预算规划方面尤其如此。预算政策最重要的问题是税收的规划(税收占预算收入的90%)。为了确定对税基的主要威胁,使用了“税收通行证”现象,这是基于对税收抵免有效性的评估。图中显示了乌克兰增值税收入“总缺口”形成的主要参与者。对国内生产总值和税收收入的自然对数进行了相关和回归分析。这使我们能够确定乌克兰税收收入和GDP的弹性。GDP的变化直接影响到预算的纳税额,指标的变化率成正比,变化不显著。这些结果使我们能够在对税收差距和税收弹性进行定量评估的基础上,对自由裁量性税收政策机制的改革进行战略性建模。作者提出了一些改革税收预算政策的建议。
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引用次数: 1
Modeling The Level Of Investment Attractiveness Of The Agrarian Economy Sector 农业经济部门投资吸引力水平的建模
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2020-11-10 DOI: 10.22068/IJIEPR.31.4.647
Y. Aleskerova, Z. Titenko, H. Skrypnyk, O. Grytsyna
The relevance of the research topic is due to the fact that in the current economic conditions attracting additional investments will ensure the further development of the agricultural sector of the economy. The purpose of the article is to establish a close link between investment attraction and increased agricultural output. Positive dynamics were found as a result of the analysis of the dynamics of investments in fixed assets in the agricultural sector during the analyzed period, but their fluctuations by years are observed due to the influence of factors of the external and internal environment. Scientific methods were used in the research process: modeling to build an investment model for the development of the agricultural sector of the economy; economic and statistical to assess the dynamics of capital investment; analysis and synthesis to find out the reasons that cause changes in capital investment.Results of the research. The result of the study is clearly identified trends in attracting investment in the agricultural sector of Ukraine. The analysis of investment attractiveness on the basis of neoclassical Cobb-Douglas production function is carried out. The obtained model made it possible to predict the volume of production based on the expected values of capital and labor.
研究课题的相关性是由于这样一个事实,即在目前的经济条件下吸引额外的投资将确保农业经济部门的进一步发展。本文的目的是在吸引投资和增加农业产出之间建立紧密的联系。通过对所分析期间农业部门固定资产投资动态的分析,发现了积极的动态,但由于外部和内部环境因素的影响,观察到其逐年波动。在研究过程中采用了科学的方法:建立了农业部门经济发展的投资模型;评估资本投资动态的经济和统计;分析综合,找出导致资本投资变化的原因。研究结果。研究的结果是明确确定了在乌克兰农业部门吸引投资的趋势。在新古典柯布-道格拉斯生产函数的基础上,对投资吸引力进行了分析。所得到的模型可以根据资本和劳动力的期望值来预测产量。
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引用次数: 4
Influence of some Macroeconomic Indicators on Government Debt (Case of Ukraine) 部分宏观经济指标对政府债务的影响(以乌克兰为例)
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2020-11-10 DOI: 10.22068/IJIEPR.31.4.523
N. Demchuk, Iu I Masiuk, A. Donskykh, I. Kadyrus
The aim of the study is to develop theoretical and methodological foundations, scientific and practical recommendations for improving the management and evaluation of public debt in Ukraine. The methodological foundations of the study are a systematic approach to the analysis of the relationship of financial phenomena and processes, creative reflection on the works of Ukrainian and foreign scientists on public debt, and its role in the context of macro-financial stabilization. Specific scientific theoretical and applied developments by the applicant were obtained using the following methods: graphical financial analysis (for studying the tendencies of debt formation); statistical-economic (to identify the impact of public debt on socio-economic processes); economic-mathematical modeling (to determine the relationship between public debt and macroeconomic indicators). On the basis of the research, it was revealed that the selected macroeconomic indicators have a significant impact on the government debt, and there are difficulties in coordinating international, regional economic integration or creating a broad separation based on stable international competitiveness. In order to test the impact of some macroeconomic indicators on the size of public debt, the World Bank's economic indicators have been taken as the main material for research. The analyzed period of time is 2001-2017 years. The recommendations provided in this article will contribute to the development of public debt management and the associated increase in the living standards of the country's population. Based on the analysis conducted, there are every reason to assert that effective management of public debt can contribute to the development of the national economy. The scientific novelty of the study is to determine the impact of some macroeconomic indicators on public debt management at the current stage of Ukraine's development.
这项研究的目的是为改进乌克兰公共债务的管理和评价发展理论和方法基础、科学和实际建议。该研究的方法论基础是系统地分析金融现象和过程之间的关系,对乌克兰和外国科学家关于公共债务的工作进行创造性反思,及其在宏观金融稳定背景下的作用。申请人的具体科学理论和应用进展通过以下方法获得:图形财务分析(用于研究债务形成的趋势);统计经济(确定公共债务对社会经济进程的影响);经济数学模型(确定公共债务和宏观经济指标之间的关系)。在研究的基础上发现,所选择的宏观经济指标对政府债务的影响较大,在协调国际、区域经济一体化或建立基于稳定的国际竞争力的广泛分离方面存在困难。为了检验一些宏观经济指标对国债规模的影响,本文以世界银行的经济指标为主要研究材料。分析时间为2001-2017年。本文中提出的建议将有助于发展公共债务管理和相应提高该国人口的生活水平。根据所进行的分析,有充分的理由断言,有效管理公共债务有助于国民经济的发展。本研究的科学新颖之处在于确定在乌克兰发展的当前阶段,一些宏观经济指标对公共债务管理的影响。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
International Journal of Industrial Engineering and Production Research
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