Pub Date : 2019-12-19DOI: 10.5935/0034-7140.20190022
R. Castilho
Bancos oferecem diversos fundos que variam em suas caractersticas. Geralmente fundos com aplicac~ao inicial mnima maiores t^em taxas de administrac~ao menores, o que pode ser devido a custos inferiores. Neste trabalho analiso em que ponto esta correlac~ao negativa pode ser explicada pela diferenca nos custos ou re ete a tentativa dos bancos de praticar discriminac~ao de precos de segundo grau. Para isto eu estimo um modelo estrutural que permite recuperar o custo marginal dos fundos e, portanto, indicar quanto da variac~ao da taxa e devido a diferencas de custo. Os resultados sugerem que os bancos utilizam a aplicac~ao inicial mnima como forma de discriminar os precos. Exerccios contrafactuais assumindo que os bancos n~ao podem cobrar taxas multiplas nem aplicac~oes iniciais mnimas indicam que o bem-estar dos consumidores diminui na maioria dos casos.
{"title":"Minimum Initial Application and Price Discrimination in the Fund Market","authors":"R. Castilho","doi":"10.5935/0034-7140.20190022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5935/0034-7140.20190022","url":null,"abstract":"Bancos oferecem diversos fundos que variam em suas caractersticas. Geralmente fundos com aplicac~ao inicial mnima maiores t^em taxas de administrac~ao menores, o que pode ser devido a custos inferiores. Neste trabalho analiso em que ponto esta correlac~ao negativa pode ser explicada pela diferenca nos custos ou re ete a tentativa dos bancos de praticar discriminac~ao de precos de segundo grau. Para isto eu estimo um modelo estrutural que permite recuperar o custo marginal dos fundos e, portanto, indicar quanto da variac~ao da taxa e devido a diferencas de custo. Os resultados sugerem que os bancos utilizam a aplicac~ao inicial mnima como forma de discriminar os precos. Exerccios contrafactuais assumindo que os bancos n~ao podem cobrar taxas multiplas nem aplicac~oes iniciais mnimas indicam que o bem-estar dos consumidores diminui na maioria dos casos.","PeriodicalId":52490,"journal":{"name":"Revista Brasileira de Economia","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43912485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-12-19DOI: 10.5935/0034-7140.20190024
Michel Deliberali Marson
O objetivo do trabalho e construir uma nova serie de dados para o investimento industrial, com registros de contratos de empresas na Junta Comercial de Sao Paulo entre 1911 e 1920, para identificar se houve mudanca estrutural no investimento ao longo dos anos 1910, periodo da Primeira Guerra Mundial, e as principais relacoes do investimento industrial com variaveis economicas que ainda estao sem respostas na literatura especifica. Os resultados indicam que o investimento industrial, ou a constituicao de empresas na industria, estava relacionado positivamente com as exportacoes, importacoes de maquinas e o credito bancario, em periodos defasados.
{"title":"O investimento na Indústria antes de 1930: Uma Análise Empírica com Registros de Empresas da Junta Comercial do Estado de São Paulo, 1911-1920","authors":"Michel Deliberali Marson","doi":"10.5935/0034-7140.20190024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5935/0034-7140.20190024","url":null,"abstract":"O objetivo do trabalho e construir uma nova serie de dados para o investimento industrial, com registros de contratos de empresas na Junta Comercial de Sao Paulo entre 1911 e 1920, para identificar se houve mudanca estrutural no investimento ao longo dos anos 1910, periodo da Primeira Guerra Mundial, e as principais relacoes do investimento industrial com variaveis economicas que ainda estao sem respostas na literatura especifica. Os resultados indicam que o investimento industrial, ou a constituicao de empresas na industria, estava relacionado positivamente com as exportacoes, importacoes de maquinas e o credito bancario, em periodos defasados.","PeriodicalId":52490,"journal":{"name":"Revista Brasileira de Economia","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43876685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper analyses the evolution of household income inequality in Brazil from 1977 and 2013 using Brazilian National Household Survey data at aggregated and regional levels. Four income shares quantiles are analyzed: Top 1%, Top 10%, Bottom 10% and Bottom 50%. The novelty of our study is to use time series techniques to understand the phenomenon of income inequality within this period. We use Markov-Switching Regime Change Model (Hamilton (1989)) and State Space Unobservable Model (Harvey (1990)) techniques. Both strategies suggest that income concentration periods are related to low growth rates but high inflation rates as opposed to many developed countries (Piketty and Saez (2014)). Results from Markov-switching models suggest a detection of a new regime during first decade of 2000's in poorest quantiles (bottom 10% and 50%) increasing their correspondent income shares. Moreover a regime of low shares started to prevail at the same time for Top 10% whereas for those at the Top 1% had prevailed a concentrated income share regime during eighties and nineties. We argue that Brazilian macroeconomic instability helped to produce a regime of low income shares at the bottom of the distribution. Our results suggest that recent inequality reduction in the shares of top 1% quantile can be seen as a “back to normality” instead of “a new era” whereas significant changes can be seen in other quantiles. State space models results also suggests that macroeconomic of the eighties had a severe effects on Brazilian inequality whereas the dynamics of Top 1% income shares reinforce the return of 70's level considering aggregated data. Last, our estimates unveil important regional differences in many quantiles mainly on the low brackets where poorer regions seem to have persistent income-inequality that take longer to be reduced.
{"title":"A time series analysis of household income inequality in Brazil 1977 to 2013","authors":"Marcel Caparoz, Emerson Fernandes Marçal, Enlinson Mattos","doi":"10.5935/0034-7140.20190021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5935/0034-7140.20190021","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper analyses the evolution of household income inequality in Brazil from 1977 and 2013 using Brazilian National Household Survey data at aggregated and regional levels. Four income shares quantiles are analyzed: Top 1%, Top 10%, Bottom 10% and Bottom 50%. The novelty of our study is to use time series techniques to understand the phenomenon of income inequality within this period. We use Markov-Switching Regime Change Model (Hamilton (1989)) and State Space Unobservable Model (Harvey (1990)) techniques. Both strategies suggest that income concentration periods are related to low growth rates but high inflation rates as opposed to many developed countries (Piketty and Saez (2014)). Results from Markov-switching models suggest a detection of a new regime during first decade of 2000's in poorest quantiles (bottom 10% and 50%) increasing their correspondent income shares. Moreover a regime of low shares started to prevail at the same time for Top 10% whereas for those at the Top 1% had prevailed a concentrated income share regime during eighties and nineties. We argue that Brazilian macroeconomic instability helped to produce a regime of low income shares at the bottom of the distribution. Our results suggest that recent inequality reduction in the shares of top 1% quantile can be seen as a “back to normality” instead of “a new era” whereas significant changes can be seen in other quantiles. State space models results also suggests that macroeconomic of the eighties had a severe effects on Brazilian inequality whereas the dynamics of Top 1% income shares reinforce the return of 70's level considering aggregated data. Last, our estimates unveil important regional differences in many quantiles mainly on the low brackets where poorer regions seem to have persistent income-inequality that take longer to be reduced.","PeriodicalId":52490,"journal":{"name":"Revista Brasileira de Economia","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42577280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-12-19DOI: 10.5935/0034-7140.20190019
Sergio Almeida
We study how the use of real and hypothetical choices to elicit risk preferences affect the statistical relationship between cognitive ability and risk aversion. Our experimental results suggest that such association is sensitive to incentive conditions of the choice problems used to elicit risk preferences. Individuals in the upper tail of the cognitive ability distribution are willing to take more risks. But this holds only when choices involve hypothetical payoffs. When choices are real, this correlation is found insignificant. Results are robust to using alternative measures of cognitive ability.
{"title":"Do as I Do, Not as I Say: Incentivization and the Relationship Between Cognitive Ability and Risk Aversion","authors":"Sergio Almeida","doi":"10.5935/0034-7140.20190019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5935/0034-7140.20190019","url":null,"abstract":"We study how the use of real and hypothetical choices to elicit risk preferences affect the statistical relationship between cognitive ability and risk aversion. Our experimental results suggest that such association is sensitive to incentive conditions of the choice problems used to elicit risk preferences. Individuals in the upper tail of the cognitive ability distribution are willing to take more risks. But this holds only when choices involve hypothetical payoffs. When choices are real, this correlation is found insignificant. Results are robust to using alternative measures of cognitive ability.","PeriodicalId":52490,"journal":{"name":"Revista Brasileira de Economia","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44469680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-12-19DOI: 10.5935/0034-7140.20190020
A. Araújo, Tomás Brisola
Neste trabalho, utilizamos a metodologia de ataque especulativo de Salant, Flood e Garber e Krugman para analisar o câmbio fixo adotado no Brasil apos o Plano Real. A partir desse modelo e da fragil situacao fiscal brasileira na epoca, uma vez que o ajuste fiscal nao foi feito plenamente, chegamos a conclusao de que era altamente provavel um ataque especulativo no Brasil antes das eleicoes de outubro de 1998. Nossa calibragem serviu de base para entrevistas em anexo. Consolidando nossas previsoes, o ataque especulativo ocorreu em setembro de 1998.
{"title":"Uma Calibragem do Modelo de Krugman-Flood-Garber para o Caso Brasileiro","authors":"A. Araújo, Tomás Brisola","doi":"10.5935/0034-7140.20190020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5935/0034-7140.20190020","url":null,"abstract":"Neste trabalho, utilizamos a metodologia de ataque especulativo de Salant, Flood e Garber e Krugman para analisar o câmbio fixo adotado no Brasil apos o Plano Real. A partir desse modelo e da fragil situacao fiscal brasileira na epoca, uma vez que o ajuste fiscal nao foi feito plenamente, chegamos a conclusao de que era altamente provavel um ataque especulativo no Brasil antes das eleicoes de outubro de 1998. Nossa calibragem serviu de base para entrevistas em anexo. Consolidando nossas previsoes, o ataque especulativo ocorreu em setembro de 1998.","PeriodicalId":52490,"journal":{"name":"Revista Brasileira de Economia","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71263413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-09-20DOI: 10.5935/0034-7140.20190017
V. Orellano, Júlia Emília dos Santos Neto, Enlinson Mattos
Este estudo analisa o impacto da presenca de um idoso aposentado na saude de sua familia. Usamos dados do Suplemento Especial de Saude da PNAD 2008 e a regra de aposentadoria por idade para construir os grupos de tratamento e controle, necessarios para usar a metodologia de regressao com descontinuidade (RDD). Encontramos evidencias de que ter um idoso aposentado na familia melhora a percepcao de seus integrantes a respeito da sua condicao de saude e da sua capacidade de realizar atividades habituais, alem de reduzir a incidencia de um conjunto de doencas. Esse efeito se da, ao menos parcialmente, atraves do maior tempo disponivel que os aposentados tem para cuidar de si mesmos e de seus familiares.
{"title":"Uma nota sobre o impacto da presença de um idoso aposentado na saúde das famílias no Brasil","authors":"V. Orellano, Júlia Emília dos Santos Neto, Enlinson Mattos","doi":"10.5935/0034-7140.20190017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5935/0034-7140.20190017","url":null,"abstract":"Este estudo analisa o impacto da presenca de um idoso aposentado na saude de sua familia. Usamos dados do Suplemento Especial de Saude da PNAD 2008 e a regra de aposentadoria por idade para construir os grupos de tratamento e controle, necessarios para usar a metodologia de regressao com descontinuidade (RDD). Encontramos evidencias de que ter um idoso aposentado na familia melhora a percepcao de seus integrantes a respeito da sua condicao de saude e da sua capacidade de realizar atividades habituais, alem de reduzir a incidencia de um conjunto de doencas. Esse efeito se da, ao menos parcialmente, atraves do maior tempo disponivel que os aposentados tem para cuidar de si mesmos e de seus familiares.","PeriodicalId":52490,"journal":{"name":"Revista Brasileira de Economia","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49262658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-09-20DOI: 10.5935/0034-7140.20190015
G. V. Duarte, V. Ozaki
Crop revenue insurance has been widely discussed recently. It has become an important mechanism for risk management of crop yield and prices. However, a more comprehensive study is needed to investigate the dependence structure between the variables analyzed to calculate the premium rate actuarially fair for revenue insurance. This study proposes alternatives to calculate premium rates for revenue insurance using parametric copula functions. These methods were applied to data on soybean yield in the municipalities of Toledo, Cascavel Castro, and Guarapuava in Parana State (Brazil) and provided by the Institute of Economic and Social Development of Parana (IPARDES). Nominal prices received by producers in Parana State were provided by the Secretariat of Agriculture and Supply of Parana (SEAB).
{"title":"Pricing Crop Revenue Insurance using Parametric Copulas","authors":"G. V. Duarte, V. Ozaki","doi":"10.5935/0034-7140.20190015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5935/0034-7140.20190015","url":null,"abstract":"Crop revenue insurance has been widely discussed recently. It has become an important mechanism for risk management of crop yield and prices. However, a more comprehensive study is needed to investigate the dependence structure between the variables analyzed to calculate the premium rate actuarially fair for revenue insurance. This study proposes alternatives to calculate premium rates for revenue insurance using parametric copula functions. These methods were applied to data on soybean yield in the municipalities of Toledo, Cascavel Castro, and Guarapuava in Parana State (Brazil) and provided by the Institute of Economic and Social Development of Parana (IPARDES). Nominal prices received by producers in Parana State were provided by the Secretariat of Agriculture and Supply of Parana (SEAB).","PeriodicalId":52490,"journal":{"name":"Revista Brasileira de Economia","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45742596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-09-20DOI: 10.5935/0034-7140.20190016
Marco Antonio Montoya, Luís Antônio Sleimann Bertussi, Ricardo Luis Lopes, E. B. Finamore
Este artigo, com base nas matrizes insumo-produto economicas e energeticas do Brasil, aponta que a Cadeia Soja no agronegocio responde por 12,70% do PIB, 12,10% dos empregos, 9,80% do consumo de energia e 8,70% das emissoes de CO2. Verificou-se, uma mudanca estrutural pautada pela expansao do produto soja em grao em detrimento da industrializacao e processamento da soja, bem como, um expressivo uso de energia renovavel que alcanca 59,05% da cadeia e representa 71,48% de suas emissoes. Portanto, conclui-se que no consumo de energia a Cadeia Soja apresenta perspectivas ecologicas que conciliam o crescimento economico acelerado com a preservacao do meio ambiente.
{"title":"Uma nota sobre consumo energético, emissões, renda e emprego na cadeia da soja no Brasil","authors":"Marco Antonio Montoya, Luís Antônio Sleimann Bertussi, Ricardo Luis Lopes, E. B. Finamore","doi":"10.5935/0034-7140.20190016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5935/0034-7140.20190016","url":null,"abstract":"Este artigo, com base nas matrizes insumo-produto economicas e energeticas do Brasil, aponta que a Cadeia Soja no agronegocio responde por 12,70% do PIB, 12,10% dos empregos, 9,80% do consumo de energia e 8,70% das emissoes de CO2. Verificou-se, uma mudanca estrutural pautada pela expansao do produto soja em grao em detrimento da industrializacao e processamento da soja, bem como, um expressivo uso de energia renovavel que alcanca 59,05% da cadeia e representa 71,48% de suas emissoes. Portanto, conclui-se que no consumo de energia a Cadeia Soja apresenta perspectivas ecologicas que conciliam o crescimento economico acelerado com a preservacao do meio ambiente.","PeriodicalId":52490,"journal":{"name":"Revista Brasileira de Economia","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41913362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-09-20DOI: 10.5935/0034-7140.20190013
A. Araújo
Este artigo faz uma revisao de como podemos modelar paises em desenvolvimento, em especial o Brasil, enquanto economias em situacao de fragilidade fiscal. Para isso sao apresentados diversos modelos que contemplam a possibilidade de ocorrencia de crises da divida dado um contexto fiscal desequilibrado. A discussao presente neste trabalho comeca pela superacao dos problemas com a inflacao da America Latina nos anos 90 e segue com modelos que analisam ataques especulativos no regime de câmbio fixo, dolarizacao e escolha otima de regimes monetarios para paises emergentes. Por fim e apresentado um trabalho mais recente, ainda em desenvolvimento, a respeito de metas de inflacao e a relacao de interdependencia entre politica fiscal e monetaria.
{"title":"Teoria Macroeconômica com Fragilidade Fiscal","authors":"A. Araújo","doi":"10.5935/0034-7140.20190013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5935/0034-7140.20190013","url":null,"abstract":"Este artigo faz uma revisao de como podemos modelar paises em desenvolvimento, em especial o Brasil, enquanto economias em situacao de fragilidade fiscal. Para isso sao apresentados diversos modelos que contemplam a possibilidade de ocorrencia de crises da divida dado um contexto fiscal desequilibrado. A discussao presente neste trabalho comeca pela superacao dos problemas com a inflacao da America Latina nos anos 90 e segue com modelos que analisam ataques especulativos no regime de câmbio fixo, dolarizacao e escolha otima de regimes monetarios para paises emergentes. Por fim e apresentado um trabalho mais recente, ainda em desenvolvimento, a respeito de metas de inflacao e a relacao de interdependencia entre politica fiscal e monetaria.","PeriodicalId":52490,"journal":{"name":"Revista Brasileira de Economia","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49301871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-09-20DOI: 10.5935/0034-7140.20190014
Victor Pina Dias, Érica Diniz, J. Issler
Housing is an important component of wealth for a typical household in many countries. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of real-estate price variation on welfare, trying to close a gap between the welfare literature in Brazil and that in the U.S., the U.K., and other developed countries. Our first motivation relates to the fact that real estate is probably more important here than elsewhere as a proportion of wealth, which potentially makes the impact of a price change bigger here. Our second motivation relates to the fact that real-estate prices boomed in Brazil in the last five years. Prime real estate in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo have tripled in value in that period, and a smaller but generalized increase has been observed throughout the country. Third, we have also seen a recent consumption boom in Brazil in the last five years. Indeed, the recent rise of some of the poor to middle-income status is well documented not only for Brazil but for other emerging countries as well. Regarding consumption and real-estate prices in Brazil, one cannot imply causality from correlation, but one can do causal inference with an appropriate structural model and proper inference, or with a proper inference in a reduced-form setup. Our last motivation is related to the complete absence of studies of this kind in Brazil, which makes ours a pioneering study. We assemble a panel-data set for the determinants of non-durable consumption growth by Brazilian states, merging the techniques and ideas in Campbell and Cocco (2007) and in Case, Quigley and Shiller (2005). With appropriate controls, and panel-data methods, we investigate whether house-price variation has a positive effect on non-durable consumption. The results show a non-negligible significant impact of the change in the price of real estate on welfare consumption), although smaller then what Campbell and Cocco have found. Our findings support the view that the channel through which house prices affect consumption is a financial one.
{"title":"Non-Durable Consumption and Real-Estate Prices in Brazil: Panel-Data Analysis at the State Level","authors":"Victor Pina Dias, Érica Diniz, J. Issler","doi":"10.5935/0034-7140.20190014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5935/0034-7140.20190014","url":null,"abstract":"Housing is an important component of wealth for a typical household in many countries. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of real-estate price variation on welfare, trying to close a gap between the welfare literature in Brazil and that in the U.S., the U.K., and other developed countries. Our first motivation relates to the fact that real estate is probably more important here than elsewhere as a proportion of wealth, which potentially makes the impact of a price change bigger here. Our second motivation relates to the fact that real-estate prices boomed in Brazil in the last five years. Prime real estate in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo have tripled in value in that period, and a smaller but generalized increase has been observed throughout the country. Third, we have also seen a recent consumption boom in Brazil in the last five years. Indeed, the recent rise of some of the poor to middle-income status is well documented not only for Brazil but for other emerging countries as well. Regarding consumption and real-estate prices in Brazil, one cannot imply causality from correlation, but one can do causal inference with an appropriate structural model and proper inference, or with a proper inference in a reduced-form setup. Our last motivation is related to the complete absence of studies of this kind in Brazil, which makes ours a pioneering study. We assemble a panel-data set for the determinants of non-durable consumption growth by Brazilian states, merging the techniques and ideas in Campbell and Cocco (2007) and in Case, Quigley and Shiller (2005). With appropriate controls, and panel-data methods, we investigate whether house-price variation has a positive effect on non-durable consumption. The results show a non-negligible significant impact of the change in the price of real estate on welfare consumption), although smaller then what Campbell and Cocco have found. Our findings support the view that the channel through which house prices affect consumption is a financial one.","PeriodicalId":52490,"journal":{"name":"Revista Brasileira de Economia","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44068245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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