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Public choice economics of the Ukraine crisis 乌克兰危机的公共选择经济学
IF 0.3 Pub Date : 2023-08-28 DOI: 10.1332/251569121x16902649893380
D. Hebert, Leonid Krasnozhon
We use public choice theory to examine the calculus of the Russian aggression against Ukraine. We hypothesize that Putin’s regime acts as a tinpot dictatorship, using political loyalty and repression to stay in office. During Putin’s first two-term presidency, an improvement in Russia’s economic performance increased the supply of political loyalty and resulted in a slow fall in political repression. The global financial crisis deteriorated Russians’ living standards between Putin’s second and third terms in office. The deterioration in the country’s economic performance unambiguously resulted in a fall in the supply of loyalty and increased repression. Consistent with our hypothesis, we argue that Putin’s regime pursued military conquest to increase the aggregate supply of political loyalty.
我们使用公共选择理论来考察俄罗斯侵略乌克兰的计算。我们假设,普京政权就像一个铁罐独裁政权,利用政治忠诚和镇压来留任。在普京的前两个总统任期内,俄罗斯经济表现的改善增加了政治忠诚的供给,并导致政治镇压的缓慢下降。在普京第二任期和第三任期之间,全球金融危机恶化了俄罗斯人的生活水平。该国经济表现的恶化无疑导致了忠诚度的下降和镇压的加剧。与我们的假设一致,我们认为普京政权追求军事征服是为了增加政治忠诚的总供给。
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引用次数: 0
Introducing public choice in international relations: the Russian invasion of Ukraine 在国际关系中引入公众选择:俄罗斯入侵乌克兰
IF 0.3 Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.1332/251569121x16872942837731
Aris Trantidis
With this article, I present a public choice perspective on Russia’s war on Ukraine. I criticise the realist view according to which Russia’s security concerns, defined by President Putin, prompted the conflict. I argue that realism offers a deficient analytic framework to the extent that it disregards the political and economic structure of Russia and, generally speaking, how the political economy of each case study shapes preferences, strategies and intra-elite relations, which feed into foreign policy formation. Russia is a government-controlled economy and society; a key property of Russia’s political economy is the dependency of key socio-economic actors and groups on the regime’s survival. This landscape pre-empts the expression of genuine feedback and dissent from society, and explains why Putin’s decision has faced very little disagreement and resistance. Given the previously close economic ties between Russia and Ukraine, this article also challenges capitalist peace theory for its blanket assertion that dense economic relations would provide a strong disincentive for countries to resort to war. Instead of talking about capitalism generically, we can discern varieties of capitalism, as they condition state–society relations differently. In Russia, the value that key socio-economic elites assign to their relationship with Putin outweighs the costs they are experiencing from the conflict and the external sanctions. Developing a public choice perspective in the study of international relations focuses on the preferences and strategies of the leadership and of domestic elite-level actors within the aggressor state, and invites attention to the power asymmetries that characterise their relationship.
通过这篇文章,我提出了一个关于俄罗斯对乌克兰战争的公众选择视角。我批评现实主义观点,即普京总统定义的俄罗斯安全问题引发了冲突。我认为,现实主义提供了一个有缺陷的分析框架,因为它忽略了俄罗斯的政治和经济结构,以及一般来说,每个案例研究的政治经济如何塑造偏好、战略和精英内部关系,这些都会影响外交政策的形成。俄罗斯是一个政府控制的经济和社会;俄罗斯政治经济的一个关键特性是关键的社会经济行为者和群体对政权生存的依赖。这种情况预先阻止了社会表达真正的反馈和异议,并解释了为什么普京的决定几乎没有遇到分歧和阻力。鉴于俄罗斯和乌克兰之间此前密切的经济关系,这篇文章还对资本主义和平理论提出了质疑,因为它笼统地断言,密集的经济关系将极大地抑制各国诉诸战争。我们不必笼统地谈论资本主义,而是可以辨别资本主义的多样性,因为它们对国家与社会关系的影响不同。在俄罗斯,关键的社会经济精英对他们与普京关系的重视超过了他们在冲突和外部制裁中所付出的代价。在国际关系研究中发展公共选择视角,重点关注侵略国领导层和国内精英阶层行为者的偏好和战略,并提请注意他们关系中的权力不对称。
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引用次数: 1
Understanding the timing and outcome of the Russian Revolution: a public choice approach 理解俄国革命的时机和结果:一种公共选择的方法
IF 0.3 Pub Date : 2023-06-12 DOI: 10.1332/251569121x16827529522153
G. Dempster, R. Ekelund, M. Thornton
The October Revolution in Russia is better understood in light of Gordon Tullock’s by-product theory of revolution. This approach entails a focus on private costs and benefits rather than on public goods. It is shown that in terms of economic development, fiscal stability, and income distribution, that is, public goods, conditions in late-tsarist Russia were improving, not deteriorating, as the revolution approached. We reinterpret the impact of the many political concessions that followed the earlier Russian Revolution of 1905 and conclude that they had ultimately increased, rather than decreased, the probability of revolution. Finally, we show that various forms of foreign intervention (financial, military, and philosophical) made the unlikely Lenin the ultimate victor in the outcome of the Russian Revolution.
根据戈登·塔洛克的革命副产品理论,我们可以更好地理解俄国的十月革命。这种方法需要关注私人成本和收益,而不是公共产品。研究表明,在经济发展、财政稳定和收入分配(即公共产品)方面,随着革命的临近,沙皇后期俄罗斯的状况正在改善,而不是恶化。我们重新解读了1905年早期俄国革命之后的许多政治让步的影响,并得出结论,它们最终增加了而不是减少了革命的可能性。最后,我们表明,各种形式的外国干预(财政、军事和哲学)使不太可能的列宁成为俄国革命结果的最终胜利者。
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引用次数: 0
Presidents in deficit: are there historical rewards to deficits? 赤字总统:赤字有历史回报吗?
Pub Date : 2023-06-07 DOI: 10.1332/251569121x16830188499713
Vincent Geloso, Marcus Shera
Buchanan and Wagner pointed to an asymmetry in the political rewards of deficits and surpluses, with the former being preferable to the latter. They assigned the rise of this asymmetry to the popularization of Keynesian ideas. We test both claims by relying on the historical reputation surveys of US presidents since 1948. Historical reputations have long been something presidents have cared about, and they constitute a reliable way to assess whether their reputations suffer or gain from having run deficits. We find evidence that the size of deficits tends to be associated with greater presidential scores and that this effect is stronger in more recent surveys, when Keynesian ideas were more popular.
布坎南和瓦格纳指出,赤字和盈余的政治回报不对称,前者比后者更可取。他们将这种不对称现象的出现归因于凯恩斯主义思想的普及。我们通过对1948年以来美国总统的历史声誉调查来检验这两种说法。长期以来,历史声誉一直是总统们关心的事情,它们是评估他们的声誉是因赤字而受损还是受益的可靠方法。我们发现有证据表明,赤字的规模往往与总统的得分较高有关,而且这种影响在凯恩斯主义思想更受欢迎的近期调查中更为明显。
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引用次数: 1
Financial inclusion and tax effort in sub-Saharan Africa: the role of institutional quality 撒哈拉以南非洲的金融包容性和税收努力:制度质量的作用
IF 0.3 Pub Date : 2023-05-24 DOI: 10.1332/251569121x16817386486785
Oumarou Zallé
Addressing growth challenges in developing countries requires mobilising domestic resources in the face of declining external financing. This paper explores the effects of financial inclusion on tax efforts in sub-Saharan Africa, conditioned by institutional quality. To do this, a finite mixture model that takes into account the potential presence of unobserved heterogeneity was estimated based on a sample taken from 43 countries over the 1996 -2019 period. Tax effort scores were constructed using several stochastic frontier models. The results show that the impact of financial inclusion on tax efforts differs across country groups. For example, financial inclusion stimulates tax effort in sub-Saharan Africa in 93.8 per cent of cases and inhibits tax effort in only 6.2 per cent of cases. These results are robust to several sensitivity tests. This paper highlights the need for countries in sub-Saharan Africa to improve access to financial systems by increasing mobile banking coverage and accessibility and reducing financial services costs. These countries should also look to capitalise on the benefits of financial inclusion by protecting political rights and fighting corruption.
在外部融资不断减少的情况下,应对发展中国家的增长挑战需要调动国内资源。本文探讨了以制度质量为条件的普惠金融对撒哈拉以南非洲税收工作的影响。为此,基于1996年至2019年期间从43个国家采集的样本,估计了一个考虑到未观察到异质性潜在存在的有限混合模型。税收努力得分是用几个随机前沿模型构建的。研究结果表明,普惠金融对税收工作的影响因国家群体而异。例如,在撒哈拉以南非洲,金融普惠在93.8%的情况下刺激了税收努力,仅在6.2%的情况下抑制了税收努力。这些结果在若干敏感性测试中是可靠的。本文强调,撒哈拉以南非洲国家需要通过增加移动银行覆盖面和可及性以及降低金融服务成本来改善金融系统的可及性。这些国家还应寻求通过保护政治权利和打击腐败来利用普惠金融的好处。
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引用次数: 0
Local land taxes and social media adoption in local governments: evidence from the German state of Hesse 地方土地税和地方政府采用社交媒体:来自德国黑森州的证据
IF 0.3 Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1332/251569121x16801683769931
I. Bischoff, Aleksandra Wimberger
We link the literature on social media adoption among local governments to the literature on local public finance. We argue that the demand for social media adoption is higher the more citizens knowingly contribute to the local budget through local salient taxes. We test this hypothesis using panel data on municipalities in the German state of Hesse and their adoption of Facebook between 2009 and 2019. We show that social media adoption among local governments in Germany is driven by citizens’ demand for transparency, accountability and political participation. This demand increases the more citizens knowingly contribute to the local budget through salient local taxes. This article shows that exploring the link between issues of local public finance and political communication via social media can deepen our understanding of local public affairs.
我们将地方政府采用社交媒体的文献与地方公共财政文献联系起来。我们认为,通过地方显著税收为地方预算做出贡献的公民越多,对社交媒体采用的需求就越高。我们使用德国黑森州市政当局的面板数据以及他们在2009年至2019年间对Facebook的采用来检验这一假设。我们表明,德国地方政府采用社交媒体是由公民对透明度、问责制和政治参与的要求推动的。这种需求增加了更多的公民通过显著的地方税有意为地方预算捐款。本文表明,探索地方公共财政问题与通过社交媒体进行政治传播之间的联系,可以加深我们对地方公共事务的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Polycentric defense, Ukraine style: explaining Ukrainian resilience against invasion 多中心防御,乌克兰风格:解释乌克兰抵御入侵的韧性
Pub Date : 2023-04-17 DOI: 10.1332/251569121x16795569226712
Yahya Alshamy, Christopher J. Coyne, Nathan P. Goodman, Garrett Wood
Contrary to predictions by many experts, Ukraine’s military has been resilient in the face of the Russian government’s invasion. Drawing on the logic of polycentric defense, this article helps explain how Ukraine has remained resistant against a conventionally more powerful adversary. We argue that polycentric defense in Ukraine has four benefits that aid counteroffensive efforts against invasion. First, polycentric defense facilitates the use of local and context-specific knowledge. Second, it permits competition, experimentation, and flexibility. Third, it reduces single-point failure vulnerabilities. Fourth, it encourages a wide variety of individuals to join the armed forces and contribute to the war effort. We present evidence of the benefits of polycentric defense in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine.
与许多专家的预测相反,面对俄罗斯政府的入侵,乌克兰军队表现得很有弹性。根据多中心防御的逻辑,本文有助于解释乌克兰如何抵抗传统上更强大的对手。我们认为,乌克兰的多中心防御有四个好处,有助于对入侵的反攻努力。首先,多中心防御有助于使用本地和特定于上下文的知识。其次,它允许竞争、实验和灵活性。第三,它减少了单点故障漏洞。第四,它鼓励各种各样的人加入武装部队,为战争做出贡献。我们在乌克兰正在进行的战争背景下提出了多中心防御的好处的证据。
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引用次数: 0
James M. Buchanan as an urban economist James M. Buchanan是一位城市经济学家
Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1332/251569121x16717078287437
Daniel Kuehn
This article explores James M. Buchanan’s contributions to urban economics and urban public finance. Buchanan never self-identified as an ‘urban economist’, so his contributions to the field have blended into his broader body of work on public finance and externalities. However, in a series of papers in the 1960s and 1970s, Buchanan developed an urban fiscal club framework for thinking about urban problems that he used to analyse cities’ tax policy and the negative externalities of congestion, crime and pollution. By drawing out those ideas and their relation to each other, we can reconstruct Buchanan as an urban economist. This reconstruction casts new light on Buchanan’s service with several academic and federal urban policy commissions, including the Committee on Urban Public Expenditures and Richard Nixon’s Task Force on Urban Affairs and Task Force on Model Cities. Buchanan’s interest in urban economics has roots in an often-ignored member of his dissertation committee, Harvey Perloff. Perloff’s joint appointment with the Chicago Planning Program brought Buchanan into contact with several urban planners and urban economists who would continue to engage him in urban policy work throughout his career.
本文探讨了詹姆斯·m·布坎南对城市经济学和城市公共财政的贡献。布坎南从未将自己定位为“城市经济学家”,因此他对该领域的贡献融入了他关于公共财政和外部性的更广泛的工作中。然而,在20世纪60年代和70年代的一系列论文中,布坎南开发了一个用于思考城市问题的城市财政俱乐部框架,他用这个框架来分析城市的税收政策以及拥堵、犯罪和污染的负面外部性。通过勾勒出这些思想及其相互之间的关系,我们可以将布坎南重新塑造为一位城市经济学家。这一重建为布坎南在几个学术和联邦城市政策委员会的服务提供了新的视角,包括城市公共支出委员会和理查德·尼克松的城市事务特别小组和模范城市特别小组。布坎南对城市经济学的兴趣源于他的论文委员会中一位经常被忽视的成员——哈维·佩尔洛夫。Perloff与芝加哥规划项目的联合任命使布坎南接触到几位城市规划师和城市经济学家,他们将在他的职业生涯中继续参与城市政策工作。
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引用次数: 1
Measuring untapped revenue potential in developing countries: cross-country frontier and panel data analysis 衡量发展中国家未开发的收入潜力:跨国边界和面板数据分析
Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1332/251569121x16613592544147
Željko Bogetić, Dominik Naeher, Raghavan Narayanan
Efforts supporting domestic revenue mobilisation in developing countries are often designed and evaluated based on empirical indicators, such as ratios of revenue to gross domestic product, which capture differences in achieved outcomes across countries. This article studies a complementary approach that also takes into account differences in countries’ fundamental economic structures associated with different capacities to raise revenue, which are not captured by simple ratios of revenue to gross domestic product. Non-parametric data envelopment analysis is applied to estimate domestic revenue potential in a panel of 118 low- and middle-income countries from 2008 to 2019. This approach provides a data-driven measure of how efficient each country is in raising domestic revenue given its national economic conditions. The results indicate that countries’ relative efficiencies do not exhibit the same strongly positive correlation with income levels as typically observed for ratios of revenue to gross domestic product. Instead, countries with low efficiency are spread across all income groups and geographical regions. This suggests that looking solely at ratios of revenue to gross domestic product might be misleading for drawing policy and normative conclusions about how much more revenue a country should aim to raise. Finally, panel regression analysis is used to investigate the extent to which international support is targeted at countries with larger untapped revenue potential.
发展中国家支持国内收入动员的努力往往是根据经验指标来设计和评估的,比如收入与国内生产总值(gdp)的比率,这些指标反映了各国在实现成果方面的差异。本文研究了一种补充方法,该方法还考虑到各国与不同的收入筹集能力相关的基本经济结构的差异,而简单的收入与国内生产总值(gdp)之比并不能反映这些差异。应用非参数数据包络分析对118个低收入和中等收入国家2008年至2019年的国内收入潜力进行了估计。这种方法提供了一种数据驱动的衡量方法,以衡量每个国家在本国经济条件下提高国内收入的效率。研究结果表明,各国的相对效率与收入水平之间并没有表现出与收入与国内生产总值(gdp)之比通常观察到的那种强烈正相关关系。相反,低效率国家分布在所有收入群体和地理区域。这表明,仅看财政收入与国内生产总值(gdp)之比,可能会误导人们得出有关一国应力争提高多少财政收入的政策和规范性结论。最后,使用面板回归分析来调查国际支持针对具有较大未开发收入潜力的国家的程度。
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引用次数: 2
Liberty and the neoclassical fallacy 自由与新古典主义谬误
IF 0.3 Pub Date : 2023-03-29 DOI: 10.1332/251569121x16571976613141
Barry R. Weingast
Does liberty matter for economics? To address this question, I distinguish among three different types of liberty: Adam Smith’s, the neoclassical, and the so-called “classical liberal.” They differ in that the neoclassical and the classical liberal perspectives presume the existence, typically without noting it, of the four conditions that comprise the foundation of liberty, namely, secure property rights, enforcement of contracts, absence of government predation, and security. In contrast, Adam Smith sought to explain these foundations. In this article—an extraliterary review of one of the central themes of Acemoglu and Robinson (2019)—I draw the implications of Smith’s approach, and I explain why neoclassical economics—which takes the foundations of liberty as given—is unable to understand the work of Smith on this topic and, hence, on economic development. I also show that the neoclassical and the classical liberal approaches rest on a foundation of magic: they both presume the foundational conditions just noted but fail to explain how they arise. Put simply, the neoclassical approach has no explanation for the origin of liberty or of the mechanisms that sustain it. If markets require the four conditions of the foundation of liberty, then a complete explanation of the origin and development of markets must include an explanation of how these conditions come to hold. The Smithian economic perspective is especially important for today’s developing countries, most of which, at best, struggle to create the four foundational assumptions of liberty.
自由对经济学重要吗?为了解决这个问题,我区分了三种不同类型的自由:亚当·斯密的、新古典主义的和所谓的“古典自由主义”。它们的不同之处在于,新古典主义和古典自由主义的观点假设,构成自由基础的四个条件的存在,通常没有注意到,合同的执行、没有政府掠夺和安全。相比之下,亚当·斯密试图解释这些基础。在这篇文章中,我对Acemoglu和Robinson(2019)的中心主题之一进行了一次文学外的回顾,我得出了史密斯方法的含义,并解释了为什么新古典经济学——它以给定的自由为基础——无法理解史密斯在这一主题上的工作,因此也无法理解他在经济发展方面的工作。我还表明,新古典主义和古典自由主义的方法建立在魔法的基础上:它们都假设了刚才提到的基本条件,但未能解释它们是如何产生的。简单地说,新古典主义方法没有解释自由的起源或维持自由的机制。如果市场需要自由基础的四个条件,那么对市场起源和发展的完整解释必须包括对这些条件是如何形成的解释。史密斯的经济观点对今天的发展中国家来说尤其重要,因为大多数发展中国家充其量都在努力创造自由的四个基本假设。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Journal of Public Finance and Public Choice
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