Pub Date : 2023-10-31DOI: 10.1142/s1013251123500108
YI-RU ZHA, JIA-WEI JIN
This paper examines the associations between timing, events, and nationalist sentiments among the mainland Chinese Weibo users toward Taiwan following the visit of Speaker Nancy Pelosi of the US House of Representatives on August 2, 2022. Utilizing a dataset of 4,353 Weibo comments and employing a combination of regression and interview analysis, our study has revealed several key findings: (1) Nationalist sentiments have diminished over time, and this can be attributed to an increasing immunity to Taiwan-related topics among netizens, habitual mood control, and the processing of new information. (2) Military action against Taiwanese separatists has the potential to intensify nationalist sentiments among the Chinese public, possibly due to its perceived efficacy in countering threats to the country’s sovereignty. (3) Military action’s positive association with nationalism tends to be amplified if this person is a male user. (4) Nationalist sentiments in response to political actions are more likely to diminish over time. (5) Nationalist sentiments in response to military actions tend to rise more slowly or diminish more quickly among those in the China’s Southeast (i.e., the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang). (6) The events after PLA’s military drills around Taiwan have a tendency to dampen nationalism whether people’s expectations for government action are fulfilled or not. This research supports the theories of inoculation, telic hedonism, and information utility in explaining the diminishing of nationalist sentiments among different groups. Furthermore, it validates and extends the EPPM in assessing how events interact with gender and regional factors to incite nationalist sentiments. Finally, this study highlights the potential for integrating reversal theory with Maslow’s theory of need to better understand reversals in nationalist sentiments.
{"title":"Attitude Decay, Event Salience, and Emotional Reversal: Chinese Cyber-Nationalism after Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan","authors":"YI-RU ZHA, JIA-WEI JIN","doi":"10.1142/s1013251123500108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1013251123500108","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the associations between timing, events, and nationalist sentiments among the mainland Chinese Weibo users toward Taiwan following the visit of Speaker Nancy Pelosi of the US House of Representatives on August 2, 2022. Utilizing a dataset of 4,353 Weibo comments and employing a combination of regression and interview analysis, our study has revealed several key findings: (1) Nationalist sentiments have diminished over time, and this can be attributed to an increasing immunity to Taiwan-related topics among netizens, habitual mood control, and the processing of new information. (2) Military action against Taiwanese separatists has the potential to intensify nationalist sentiments among the Chinese public, possibly due to its perceived efficacy in countering threats to the country’s sovereignty. (3) Military action’s positive association with nationalism tends to be amplified if this person is a male user. (4) Nationalist sentiments in response to political actions are more likely to diminish over time. (5) Nationalist sentiments in response to military actions tend to rise more slowly or diminish more quickly among those in the China’s Southeast (i.e., the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang). (6) The events after PLA’s military drills around Taiwan have a tendency to dampen nationalism whether people’s expectations for government action are fulfilled or not. This research supports the theories of inoculation, telic hedonism, and information utility in explaining the diminishing of nationalist sentiments among different groups. Furthermore, it validates and extends the EPPM in assessing how events interact with gender and regional factors to incite nationalist sentiments. Finally, this study highlights the potential for integrating reversal theory with Maslow’s theory of need to better understand reversals in nationalist sentiments.","PeriodicalId":53213,"journal":{"name":"ISSUES & STUDIES","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135928650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-11DOI: 10.1142/s1013251121500168
D. Fischer, Hannes Gohli, Sabrina Habich-Sobiegalla
Xi Jinping’s ascension to power and subsequent developments in Chinese governance have stoked the flames on the debate on industrial policies, both in China and across the globe. At least partly, the debate results from the perception that industrial policies have been important for China’s economic rise, growing competitiveness and drive to innovate. Outside China, this perception has already prompted some governments to suggest that their countries should react to China’s rise by also promulgating industrial policies. But inspite of the growing interest in the topic, there is hardly a consensus on the character of China’s industrial policies nor their efficiency and effectiveness, neither inside nor outside of China. This paper will shed light on these issues by looking at Chinese industrial policies from the perspective of political steering theory. It will first review the political steering theory, identify key concepts (steering modes, steering objects and subjects, etc.) and then explain the rationale of applying the theoretical deliberations to industrial policymaking and implementation in China’s EV and solar sectors. Against this background, this paper will identify different types of industrial policies and look into Chinese industrial policy development and academic discussion over time with a specific focus on changes in industrial policy steering following the inauguration of the Xi Jinping administration. This paper aims to make a conceptual contribution based on the analysis of policy documents and academic texts as well as discussions and interviews with Chinese economists and political scientists. It is part of a larger research project that focuses on how political steering through industrial policies affects China’s energy transition under Xi.
{"title":"Industrial Policies Under Xi Jinping: A Steering Theory Perspective","authors":"D. Fischer, Hannes Gohli, Sabrina Habich-Sobiegalla","doi":"10.1142/s1013251121500168","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1013251121500168","url":null,"abstract":"Xi Jinping’s ascension to power and subsequent developments in Chinese governance have stoked the flames on the debate on industrial policies, both in China and across the globe. At least partly, the debate results from the perception that industrial policies have been important for China’s economic rise, growing competitiveness and drive to innovate. Outside China, this perception has already prompted some governments to suggest that their countries should react to China’s rise by also promulgating industrial policies. But inspite of the growing interest in the topic, there is hardly a consensus on the character of China’s industrial policies nor their efficiency and effectiveness, neither inside nor outside of China. This paper will shed light on these issues by looking at Chinese industrial policies from the perspective of political steering theory. It will first review the political steering theory, identify key concepts (steering modes, steering objects and subjects, etc.) and then explain the rationale of applying the theoretical deliberations to industrial policymaking and implementation in China’s EV and solar sectors. Against this background, this paper will identify different types of industrial policies and look into Chinese industrial policy development and academic discussion over time with a specific focus on changes in industrial policy steering following the inauguration of the Xi Jinping administration. This paper aims to make a conceptual contribution based on the analysis of policy documents and academic texts as well as discussions and interviews with Chinese economists and political scientists. It is part of a larger research project that focuses on how political steering through industrial policies affects China’s energy transition under Xi.","PeriodicalId":53213,"journal":{"name":"ISSUES & STUDIES","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86441948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-04DOI: 10.1142/s1013251121500156
C. Kou, Wen-hsuan Tsai
Under Xi Jinping, the cadre recruitment policy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been adapted. What are the political implications of these adaptations? This paper argues that Xi has sought to consolidate his power among the political elite and strengthen grassroots governance by introducing a new cadre recruitment policy. We propose the concept of “dual elite recruitment logic” as an aid to interpreting the cadre recruitment strategy in the Xi era: the CCP’s system for appointing and promoting cadres at the full provincial/ministerial level (zhengbuji) and the grassroots follows’ criteria that are different from those formulated under the previous “rejuvenation of cadres” principle. While China under Xi may be able to maintain political stability and promote socio-economic development in the short term, the lack of a new succession mechanism is the biggest obstacle to China’s future political development.
这些适应的政治含义是什么?
{"title":"Dual Elite Recruitment Logic and Political Manipulation under Xi Jinping","authors":"C. Kou, Wen-hsuan Tsai","doi":"10.1142/s1013251121500156","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1013251121500156","url":null,"abstract":"Under Xi Jinping, the cadre recruitment policy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been adapted. What are the political implications of these adaptations? This paper argues that Xi has sought to consolidate his power among the political elite and strengthen grassroots governance by introducing a new cadre recruitment policy. We propose the concept of “dual elite recruitment logic” as an aid to interpreting the cadre recruitment strategy in the Xi era: the CCP’s system for appointing and promoting cadres at the full provincial/ministerial level (zhengbuji) and the grassroots follows’ criteria that are different from those formulated under the previous “rejuvenation of cadres” principle. While China under Xi may be able to maintain political stability and promote socio-economic development in the short term, the lack of a new succession mechanism is the biggest obstacle to China’s future political development.","PeriodicalId":53213,"journal":{"name":"ISSUES & STUDIES","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76708709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-04DOI: 10.1142/s1013251121500132
Hans H. Tung, Wen-Chin Wu
This paper evaluates the progress and impact of the literature on comparative authoritarianism, showing not only how its development over the previous two decades can help us understand China’s authoritarian politics better, but also how the latter can move the former forward. We focus on two important topic areas in the literature: authoritarian power-sharing and autocratic politics of information (e.g., partial media freedom and government censorship). For the first topic, we shall review the literature on the authoritarian power-sharing between dictators and their allies and explicate how this conceptual innovation helps us understand the institutional foundation of China’s regime stability and phenomenal economic performance before Xi Jinping. The analysis then provides us a baseline for assessing China’s economic and political future under Xi Jinping given his clear departure from the pre-existing power-sharing framework. Finally, this paper also assesses the relevance of the literature on authoritarian politics of information to the Chinese context. In sum, we not only emphasize the conceptual contributions of the literature of comparative authoritarianism to the field of Chinese politics, but also identify lacunae in the current literature and avenues for future research that post-Xi political developments have made visible to us.
{"title":"What Can Comparative Authoritarianism Tell Us About China Under Xi Jinping (and Vice Versa)?","authors":"Hans H. Tung, Wen-Chin Wu","doi":"10.1142/s1013251121500132","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1013251121500132","url":null,"abstract":"This paper evaluates the progress and impact of the literature on comparative authoritarianism, showing not only how its development over the previous two decades can help us understand China’s authoritarian politics better, but also how the latter can move the former forward. We focus on two important topic areas in the literature: authoritarian power-sharing and autocratic politics of information (e.g., partial media freedom and government censorship). For the first topic, we shall review the literature on the authoritarian power-sharing between dictators and their allies and explicate how this conceptual innovation helps us understand the institutional foundation of China’s regime stability and phenomenal economic performance before Xi Jinping. The analysis then provides us a baseline for assessing China’s economic and political future under Xi Jinping given his clear departure from the pre-existing power-sharing framework. Finally, this paper also assesses the relevance of the literature on authoritarian politics of information to the Chinese context. In sum, we not only emphasize the conceptual contributions of the literature of comparative authoritarianism to the field of Chinese politics, but also identify lacunae in the current literature and avenues for future research that post-Xi political developments have made visible to us.","PeriodicalId":53213,"journal":{"name":"ISSUES & STUDIES","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89301436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-04DOI: 10.1142/s1013251121500144
Fang-Ting Cheng
The development of renewable energy policies in Taiwan has been thoroughly discussed from political, economic, social, industrial and environmental perspectives. Energy policies, particularly those adopted by the United Nations (UN) and other international organizations, have influenced both (1) the decision-making process of energy policies such as action plans, programs and (2) the transition to renewable energies. This paper argues that the transfer of global environmental and energy policies serves as the mechanism behind Taiwan’s efforts to expand renewable energy production. These global policies have so far been practiced by international organizations through agreements designed to combat climate change, achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs), and reduce fossil fuel subsidies. This paper examines renewable energy policies and legislation in Taiwan through the lens of policy transfers, an area which has not been fully explored in previous research.
{"title":"International Norms, Policy Transfers and Energy Transition: Implications for Taiwan’s Development","authors":"Fang-Ting Cheng","doi":"10.1142/s1013251121500144","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1013251121500144","url":null,"abstract":"The development of renewable energy policies in Taiwan has been thoroughly discussed from political, economic, social, industrial and environmental perspectives. Energy policies, particularly those adopted by the United Nations (UN) and other international organizations, have influenced both (1) the decision-making process of energy policies such as action plans, programs and (2) the transition to renewable energies. This paper argues that the transfer of global environmental and energy policies serves as the mechanism behind Taiwan’s efforts to expand renewable energy production. These global policies have so far been practiced by international organizations through agreements designed to combat climate change, achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs), and reduce fossil fuel subsidies. This paper examines renewable energy policies and legislation in Taiwan through the lens of policy transfers, an area which has not been fully explored in previous research.","PeriodicalId":53213,"journal":{"name":"ISSUES & STUDIES","volume":"98 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81099921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-01DOI: 10.1142/s1013251121500090
Yongshun Cai
Social movements occur not only because of political opportunities but also due to a perceived threat to citizens. Popular contention has remained an important mode of political participation in Hong Kong since 1997 when its sovereignty was handed over to China. Many influential collective actions in Hong Kong occurred when residents felt a threat had arisen from policies made by the city government or Beijing. By examining the Anti-Extradition-Bill movement in Hong Kong, this paper explores how threat triggers and sustains social movements. It finds that threat both facilitates the mobilization of social movements and sustains them. Threat strengthens solidarity among movement supporters because of their shared concerns and goals. It sustains a movement when government responses confirm participants’ belief in the continual existence of the threat. The Anti-Extradition-Bill movement deepened the distrust between local residents and Beijing, resulting in the promulgation of the National Security Law by Beijing in May 2020.
{"title":"Social Movements in Hong Kong","authors":"Yongshun Cai","doi":"10.1142/s1013251121500090","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1013251121500090","url":null,"abstract":"Social movements occur not only because of political opportunities but also due to a perceived threat to citizens. Popular contention has remained an important mode of political participation in Hong Kong since 1997 when its sovereignty was handed over to China. Many influential collective actions in Hong Kong occurred when residents felt a threat had arisen from policies made by the city government or Beijing. By examining the Anti-Extradition-Bill movement in Hong Kong, this paper explores how threat triggers and sustains social movements. It finds that threat both facilitates the mobilization of social movements and sustains them. Threat strengthens solidarity among movement supporters because of their shared concerns and goals. It sustains a movement when government responses confirm participants’ belief in the continual existence of the threat. The Anti-Extradition-Bill movement deepened the distrust between local residents and Beijing, resulting in the promulgation of the National Security Law by Beijing in May 2020.","PeriodicalId":53213,"journal":{"name":"ISSUES & STUDIES","volume":"249 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75756444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-01DOI: 10.1142/s1013251121500120
Dongtao Qi, Shengqiao Lin
Based on the literature about the role of rising nationalism in recent world politics, this paper proposes a nationalism-oriented causal model to explain the voting choices of different social groups. With an interest-identity framework, this generic model is applied to Taiwan’s 2016 presidential election to examine whether and to what extent 11 causal mechanisms influence the voting choices of four groups defined by generation, class, and ethnicity. The findings not only reveal generational, class-based, and ethnic differences in Taiwanese voting behavior; they also show that the election was largely one of identity politics centered around the issues of national identity and democratic identification, making the “interest card” played by Beijing less effective in swaying voter choices. This explains why Beijing’s divide-and-conquer economic policy successfully divided Taiwanese voters but failed in the end to prevent the pro-independence candidate from winning the election. The findings also indicate that the economic concerns of voters promoted both their Taiwanese identity and support for Taiwan independence, while identification with Taiwan’s democracy contributed directly to the former and only indirectly to the latter. Overall, the model presents a more fine-grained analysis of nationalist politics and may be applied to the studies of other political behaviors involving nationalism.
{"title":"Dividing without Conquering: Generation, Class, Ethnicity, and Nationalism in Taiwan’s 2016 Presidential Election","authors":"Dongtao Qi, Shengqiao Lin","doi":"10.1142/s1013251121500120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1013251121500120","url":null,"abstract":"Based on the literature about the role of rising nationalism in recent world politics, this paper proposes a nationalism-oriented causal model to explain the voting choices of different social groups. With an interest-identity framework, this generic model is applied to Taiwan’s 2016 presidential election to examine whether and to what extent 11 causal mechanisms influence the voting choices of four groups defined by generation, class, and ethnicity. The findings not only reveal generational, class-based, and ethnic differences in Taiwanese voting behavior; they also show that the election was largely one of identity politics centered around the issues of national identity and democratic identification, making the “interest card” played by Beijing less effective in swaying voter choices. This explains why Beijing’s divide-and-conquer economic policy successfully divided Taiwanese voters but failed in the end to prevent the pro-independence candidate from winning the election. The findings also indicate that the economic concerns of voters promoted both their Taiwanese identity and support for Taiwan independence, while identification with Taiwan’s democracy contributed directly to the former and only indirectly to the latter. Overall, the model presents a more fine-grained analysis of nationalist politics and may be applied to the studies of other political behaviors involving nationalism.","PeriodicalId":53213,"journal":{"name":"ISSUES & STUDIES","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76446169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-01DOI: 10.1142/s1013251121500119
Hurng-Yu Chen
After Japan occupied Taiwan from the Quin Dynasty in 1895, the Japanese government immediately held talks with Spain to delimit the sea boundary between Spain and Japanese Taiwan. According to the Convention between Japan and Spain in 1895, the sea boundary of both countries was in the middle of the navigable channel of Bashi. For it did not refer to the longitude and latitude, thus it resulted in confusion when the United States negotiated a peace treaty with Spain. What is the meaning of “in the middle of the navigable channel of Bashi?” In the Treaty of Paris between the United States and Spain in 1898, Spain ceded the Philippines archipelagoes to the south of 20∘ North latitude to the United States. In fact, the Batanes Islands are located at 20–21∘ North latitudes. Geographically, the Batanes Islands were not included in the Treaty of Paris. This paper will focus on the reasons why did not Spain cede the territory to the north of 20∘ North latitude to the United States? And, it also discussed the problems of the legal status of the Batanes Islands and the rights of claim by Taiwan.
{"title":"The Pending Territorial Sovereignty of the Batanes Islands: A Taiwan Perspective","authors":"Hurng-Yu Chen","doi":"10.1142/s1013251121500119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1013251121500119","url":null,"abstract":"After Japan occupied Taiwan from the Quin Dynasty in 1895, the Japanese government immediately held talks with Spain to delimit the sea boundary between Spain and Japanese Taiwan. According to the Convention between Japan and Spain in 1895, the sea boundary of both countries was in the middle of the navigable channel of Bashi. For it did not refer to the longitude and latitude, thus it resulted in confusion when the United States negotiated a peace treaty with Spain. What is the meaning of “in the middle of the navigable channel of Bashi?” In the Treaty of Paris between the United States and Spain in 1898, Spain ceded the Philippines archipelagoes to the south of 20∘ North latitude to the United States. In fact, the Batanes Islands are located at 20–21∘ North latitudes. Geographically, the Batanes Islands were not included in the Treaty of Paris. This paper will focus on the reasons why did not Spain cede the territory to the north of 20∘ North latitude to the United States? And, it also discussed the problems of the legal status of the Batanes Islands and the rights of claim by Taiwan.","PeriodicalId":53213,"journal":{"name":"ISSUES & STUDIES","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90242253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-01DOI: 10.1142/s1013251121500107
S. Wong, K. Chan
Scholars of electoral autocracies accord far more attention to post-election protests than pre-election ones, as the former have the potential to trigger a regime transition. We argue that pre-election protests can have a significant effect on election outcomes. In particular, they are likely to deepen social cleavages along two dimensions: age and immigrant status. The 2019 social unrest in Hong Kong provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the electoral impact of pre-election protests. Comparing public opinion data related to the 2019 and 2015 District Council elections, we find strong empirical support for our argument, as immigrant status and age are strong predictors of voting choices and voter turnout. Our findings imply that exposure to democratic protests may not help in bridging the gap in political attitudes between immigrants and natives.
{"title":"The Impact of Pre-Election Protests in Electoral Autocracies: The Case of Hong Kong’s Anti-ELAB Movement","authors":"S. Wong, K. Chan","doi":"10.1142/s1013251121500107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1013251121500107","url":null,"abstract":"Scholars of electoral autocracies accord far more attention to post-election protests than pre-election ones, as the former have the potential to trigger a regime transition. We argue that pre-election protests can have a significant effect on election outcomes. In particular, they are likely to deepen social cleavages along two dimensions: age and immigrant status. The 2019 social unrest in Hong Kong provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the electoral impact of pre-election protests. Comparing public opinion data related to the 2019 and 2015 District Council elections, we find strong empirical support for our argument, as immigrant status and age are strong predictors of voting choices and voter turnout. Our findings imply that exposure to democratic protests may not help in bridging the gap in political attitudes between immigrants and natives.","PeriodicalId":53213,"journal":{"name":"ISSUES & STUDIES","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89233132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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