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Individual-particle analyses of coastal Antarctic aerosols 南极沿海气溶胶的单个粒子分析
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 1999-07-01 DOI: 10.3402/TELLUSB.V51I3.16442
H. Mouri, Ippei Nagao, K. Okada, S. Koga, Hiroshi L. Tanaka
Samplings of aerosol particles were made almost monthly throughout a year at a coastal Antarctic station Syowa (69°00′S, 39°35′E). With X-ray spectrometry, elemental composition of the individual particles is studied. The dominant aerosol constituents are sulphur species and sea salt. They are internally mixed with each other in most cases. We find seasonal variations in (1) the relative importance of sulphur and sea salt, and (2) the modification of sea salt by acidic materials. In the austral-summer samples, the number fractions of sulphur-rich particles and modified sea-salt particles are high, because the production of marine organosulfer was enhanced. In the austral-winter samples, the number fraction of unmodified sea-salt particles is high, because severe storms enhanced the production of sea salt. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0889.1999.t01-2-00002.x
在南极沿海的Syowa站(69°00'S, 39°35'E),全年几乎每月都进行气溶胶颗粒取样。用x射线光谱法研究了单个粒子的元素组成。气溶胶的主要成分是硫和海盐。在大多数情况下,它们在内部相互混合。我们发现:(1)硫和海盐的相对重要性,以及(2)酸性物质对海盐的修饰的季节变化。在南夏样品中,富硫颗粒和改性海盐颗粒的分数较高,因为海洋有机硫的产生增强了。在南方冬季样品中,未改性海盐颗粒的数量分数很高,因为强烈的风暴促进了海盐的产生。DOI: 10.1034 / j.1600 0889.1999.t01 - 2 - 00002. x
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引用次数: 19
Long‐term variability in the global carbon cycle inferred from a high‐precision CO2 and δ13C ice‐core record 从高精度CO2和δ13C冰芯记录推断的全球碳循环的长期变率
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 1999-04-01 DOI: 10.3402/TELLUSB.V51I2.16276
C. Trudinger, I. Enting, R. Francey, D. Etheridge, P. Rayner
The new high precision Law Dome ice core record of CO 2 and δ 13 CO 2 is used with a 1-D global carbon cycle model to investigate natural variability in the carbon cycle and the anthropogenic CO 2 perturbation, focusing on variations on time-scales of centuries. A major feature of the ice core record is the decrease in CO 2 , and increase in δ 13 C, through the ‘‘Little Ice Age’′ period (roughly 1550–1800). We show that this observed decrease in CO 2 is consistent with the effect of decreased temperature on either terrestrial or oceanic exchange, however the increase in δ 13 C favors a terrestrial response to cooling. We perform single deconvolution model calculations which generally give good agreement with observed variations in CO 2 , δ 13 C and Δ 14 C data for different reservoirs and due to both natural and anthropogenic causes. The fit to prebomb Δ 14 C is improved by using an ice core 10 Be record to represent the natural production of 14 C due to cosmic rays, however, the uncertainties in interpreting the 10 Be are as yet too large to use prebomb Δ 14 C to better constrain the model parameters. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0889.1999.t01-1-00009.x
利用新的高精度Law Dome冰芯CO 2和δ 13 CO 2记录与一维全球碳循环模型,研究了碳循环的自然变率和人为CO 2扰动,重点研究了世纪尺度上的变化。冰芯记录的一个主要特征是在“小冰期”(大约1550-1800年)期间CO 2的减少和δ 13c的增加。我们表明,观测到的CO 2的减少与温度下降对陆地或海洋交换的影响是一致的,但是δ 13c的增加有利于陆地对冷却的响应。我们进行了单一反褶积模型计算,通常与观测到的不同储层的CO 2、δ 13c和Δ 14c数据的变化相吻合,这些变化是由自然和人为原因引起的。通过使用冰芯10be记录来表示宇宙射线引起的14c的自然产生,可以改善对预爆Δ 14c的拟合,然而,解释10be的不确定性仍然太大,无法使用预爆Δ 14c来更好地约束模型参数。DOI: 10.1034 / j.1600 0889.1999.t01 - 1 - 00009. x
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引用次数: 85
Seasonal and inter-annual variation of CO2 flux between a temperate forest and the atmosphere in Japan 日本温带森林与大气间CO2通量的季节和年际变化
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 1999-04-01 DOI: 10.3402/TELLUSB.V51I2.16314
S. Yamamoto, S. Murayama, N. Saigusa, H. Kondo
The objective of this research is to elucidate the seasonal and inter-annual variations of CO 2 exchanges between the atmosphere and a temperate deciduous forest in Japan and to elucidate their relation to meteorological conditions. The uptake rates of CO 2 from October 1993 to December 1996 were estimated from field measurements of CO 2 concentrations and meteorological conditions using a tower. Net of uptake rate of CO 2 was positive (uptake by forest ecosystems) from June to September and negative (release to the air) from October to April. Averages of integrated uptake rates of CO 2 were 840, − 450 and 390 gCO 2 /m 2 /year (2.3, − 1.2 and 1.1 tC/ha/year) for daytime, night and whole day (net), but they had notable inter-annual variation due to the differences of averaged insolation and temperature each summer of 1994 to 1996. The errors of CO 2 flux due to topographical conditions were investigated through comparison with heat budgets. CO 2 uptake rate estimated by tower measurement might be underestimation of 40%, therefore, above net-uptake value, 1.1 tC/ha/year became 1.8. This value of uptake rate was smaller than the results obtained in other temperate deciduous forests. The causes of this are partially in the difference of the height of the site and the short active period of the present forest. According to the CO 2 flux measurements in several forests including the present one, the forest ecosystems could be a large sink of CO 2 , however, more data of the CO 2 flux is needed at the various forests and latitudes to reduce the uncertainty of estimation of CO 2 uptake on a global scale. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0889.1999.00020.x
本研究的目的是阐明日本温带落叶森林与大气之间co2交换的季节和年际变化及其与气象条件的关系。从1993年10月至1996年12月的二氧化碳吸收率是根据实地测量的二氧化碳浓度和利用一个塔的气象条件估计的。co2净吸收率6 - 9月为正(森林生态系统吸收),10 - 4月为负(向空气释放)。白天、夜间和白天(净)的co2综合吸收率平均值分别为840、- 450和390 gCO 2 / m2 /年(2.3、- 1.2和1.1 tC/ha/年),但由于1994 ~ 1996年夏季平均日晒和温度的差异,其年际变化显著。通过与热收支的比较,探讨了地形条件对co2通量的影响。通过塔测量估计的co2吸收率可能被低估了40%,因此,高于净吸收率的1.1 tC/ha/年变为1.8 tC/ha/年。这一吸收速率值小于其他温带落叶林中的结果。造成这种情况的部分原因是场地高度的差异和现在森林的活跃期较短。根据包括本森林在内的几种森林的CO 2通量测量,森林生态系统可能是CO 2的一个大汇,但是,为了减少在全球尺度上估算CO 2吸收量的不确定性,需要更多不同森林和纬度的CO 2通量数据。DOI: 10.1034 / j.1600-0889.1999.00020.x
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引用次数: 109
Three-dimensional transport and concentration of SF6. A model intercomparison study (TransCom 2) SF6的三维迁移和浓度。模型比较研究(TransCom 2)
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 1999-04-01 DOI: 10.3402/TELLUSB.V51I2.16286
B. A. S. Denning, M. Holzer, K. Gurney, M. Heimann, R. Law, P. Rayner, I. Fung, S. Fan, Shoichi, Taguchi, P. Friedlingstein, Y. Balkanski, John A. Taylor, Manfred, Maiss, I. Levin
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) is an excellent tracer of large-scale atmospheric transport, because it has slowly increasing sources mostly confined to northern midlatitudes, and has a lifetime of thousands of years. We have simulated the emissions, transport, and concentration of SF 6 for a 5-year period, and compared the results with atmospheric observations. In addition, we have performed an intercomparison of interhemispheric transport among 11 models to investigate the reasons for the diVerences among the simulations. Most of the models are reasonably successful at simulating the observed meridional gradient of SF 6 in the remote marine boundary layer, though there is less agreement at continental sites. Models that compare well to observations in the remote marine boundary layer tend to systematically overestimate SF 6 at continental locations in source regions, suggesting that vertical trapping rather than meridional transport may be a dominant control on the simulated meridional gradient. The vertical structure of simulated SF 6 in the models supports this interpretation. Some of the models perform quite well in terms of the simulated seasonal cycle at remote locations, while others do not. Interhemispheric exchange time varies by a factor of 2 when estimated from 1-dimensional meridional profiles at the surface, as has been done for observations. The agreement among models is better when the global surface mean mole fraction is used, and better still when the full 3-dimensional mean mixing ratio is used. The ranking of the interhemispheric exchange time among the models is not sensitive to the change from station values to surface means, but is very sensitive to the change from surface means to the full 3-dimensional tracer fields. This strengthens the argument that vertical redistribution dominates over interhemispheric transport in determining the meridional gradient at the surface. Vertically integrated meridional transport in the models is divided roughly equally into transport by the mean motion, the standing eddies, and the transient eddies. The vertically integrated mass flux is a good index of the degree to
六氟化硫(sf6)是大规模大气输送的优秀示踪剂,因为它的来源缓慢增加,主要局限于中纬度北部地区,并且具有数千年的寿命。我们模拟了五年期间sf6的排放、运输和浓度,并将结果与大气观测结果进行了比较。此外,我们还对11个模式的半球间输运进行了比较,以探讨模拟差异的原因。大多数模式在模拟远海边界层观测到的SF - 6经向梯度方面相当成功,但在大陆站点的模拟结果不太一致。与遥远海洋边界层观测结果比较好的模式往往系统性地高估了源区大陆位置的SF - 6,这表明垂直圈闭而不是经向输送可能是模拟经向梯度的主要控制因素。模式模拟的sf6的垂直结构支持这一解释。有些模型在模拟偏远地区的季节周期方面表现得相当好,而另一些则不然。半球间交换时间以2倍的系数变化,当从地面的一维经向剖面估计时,已经对观测做了这样的计算。当使用全局表面平均摩尔分数时,模型之间的一致性更好,而当使用全三维平均混合比时,模型之间的一致性更好。各模式间半球交换时间的排序对台站值到地表均值的变化不敏感,但对地表均值到全三维示踪场的变化非常敏感。这加强了垂直再分布在确定地表经向梯度方面优于半球间运输的论点。模式中的垂直积分经向输送大致平均分为平均运动输送、静止涡流输送和瞬态涡流输送。垂直积分质量通量是一个很好的指标
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引用次数: 176
Comparison of methods to determine the anthropogenic CO2 invasion into the Atlantic Ocean 确定人为CO2入侵大西洋的方法比较
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 1999-04-01 DOI: 10.1034/J.1600-0889.1999.00027.X
R. Wanninkhof, S. Doney, T. Peng, J. L. Bullister, Kitack Lee, R. Feely
A comparison of different methods for estimating the anthropogenic CO 2 burden in the Atlantic Ocean is performed using referenced, high quality total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) data. The dataset is from two cruises through the center of the basin between 62°N and 43°S in 1991 and 1993. The specific anthropogenic input is determined utilizing empirical procedures as described in Gruber et al. (1996) and Chen and Millero (1979) to correct for remineralization and to estimate preanthropogenic endmembers. These estimates are compared with output of the Princeton ocean biogeochemical model and the NCAR ocean model. The results show that the specific inventories of anthropogenic carbon agree to within 20% but with different storage and uptake patterns. The empirical estimates differ because of assumptions about mixing and winter outcrop endmembers. The same remineralization quotients (Redfield ratios) were used for each method. Varying these constants within the range of literature values causes changes in specific inventories of similar magnitude as the differences observed with different methodologies. Comparison of anthropogenic CO 2 uptake and chlorofluorocarbon ages suggests that the anthropogenic CO 2 penetration in the North Atlantic is too shallow following the procedure according to Gruber et al. (1996), and too deep using those of Chen and Millero (1979). The results support these previous observations in that the uptake of CO 2 in the North Atlantic is disproportionate to its surface area. This is caused by a combination of deep water formation and deep winter mixed layers. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0889.1999.00027.x
利用参考的高质量总溶解无机碳(DIC)数据,对估算大西洋人为co2负荷的不同方法进行了比较。该数据集来自1991年和1993年在62°N和43°S之间通过盆地中心的两次巡航。具体的人为输入是利用Gruber等人(1996)和Chen和Millero(1979)所描述的经验程序来确定的,以纠正再矿化并估计前人类活动的末端成员。这些估计与普林斯顿海洋生物地球化学模型和NCAR海洋模型的输出进行了比较。结果表明:各流域人为碳具体库存量均在20%以内,但存在不同的储存和吸收模式;由于对混合和冬季露头端元的假设,经验估计有所不同。每种方法使用相同的再矿化商(Redfield比率)。在文献值范围内改变这些常数会导致特定清单的变化,其幅度与用不同方法观察到的差异相似。对人为co2吸收和氯氟化碳年龄的比较表明,按照Gruber等人(1996)的方法,北大西洋人为co2渗透太浅,而按照Chen和Millero(1979)的方法,则太深。这些结果支持了先前的观测结果,即北大西洋对二氧化碳的吸收与其表面积不成比例。这是由深水地层和深冬混合层共同作用造成的。DOI: 10.1034 / j.1600-0889.1999.00027.x
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引用次数: 72
A 1000-year high precision record of δ 13 C in atmospheric CO 2 大气co2中δ 13c的1000年高精度记录
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 1999-04-01 DOI: 10.3402/TELLUSB.V51I2.16269
R. Francey, R. Francey, C. Allison, D. Etheridge, C. Trudinger, C. Trudinger, I. Enting, I. Enting, M. Leuenberger, R. Langenfelds, E. Michel, L. Steele, L. Steele
We present measurements of the stable carbon isotope ratio in air extracted from Antarctic ice core and firn samples. The same samples were previously used by Etheridge and co-workers to construct a high precision 1000-year record of atmospheric CO 2 concentration, featuring a close link between the ice and modern records and high-time resolution. Here, we start by confirming the trend in the Cape Grim in situ δ 13 C record from 1982 to 1996, and extend it back to 1978 using the Cape Grim Air Archive. The firn air δ 13 C agrees with the Cape Grim record, but only after correction for gravitational separation at depth, for diffusion effects associated with disequilibrium between the atmosphere and firm, and allowance for a latidudinal gradient in δ 13 C between Cape Grim and the Antarctic coast. Complex calibration strategies are required to cope with several additional systematic influences on the ice core δ 13 C record. Errors are assigned to each ice core value to reflect statistical and systematic biases (between ± 0.025‰ and ± 0.07‰); uncertainties (of up to ± 0.05‰) between core-versus-core, ice-versus-firn and firn-versus-troposphere are described separately. An almost continuous atmospheric history of δ 13 C over 1000 years results, exhibiting significant decadal-to-century scale variability unlike that from earlier proxy records. The decrease in δ 13 C from 1860 to 1960 involves a series of steps confirming enhanced sensitivity of δ 13 C to decadal timescale-forcing, compared to the CO 2 record. Synchronous with a ‘‘Little Ice Age’′ CO 2 decrease, an enhancement of δ 13 C implies a terrestrial response to cooler temperatures. Between 1200 AD and 1600 AD, the atmospheric δ 13 C appear stable. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0889.1999.t01-1-00005.x
我们提出了从南极冰芯和雪样品中提取的空气中稳定碳同位素比率的测量。埃瑟里奇和他的同事们以前用同样的样本建立了一个高精度的1000年大气二氧化碳浓度记录,其特点是冰和现代记录之间的密切联系和高时间分辨率。本文首先对格里姆角1982 ~ 1996年的δ 13c原位记录进行了趋势确认,并利用格里姆角大气档案将其回溯至1978年。大气δ 13c与格里姆角的记录一致,但只有在校正了深度重力分离、大气与大气不平衡引起的扩散效应以及格里姆角与南极海岸之间δ 13c的纬度梯度之后。为了应对对冰芯δ 13c记录的几个额外的系统影响,需要复杂的校准策略。为每个冰芯值分配误差,以反映统计和系统偏差(±0.025‰和±0.07‰之间);地核对地核、冰对雪和雪对对流层之间的不确定性(高达±0.05‰)分别进行了描述。在1000年的时间里,δ 13c的大气历史几乎是连续的,与早期的代用记录不同,它表现出显著的年代际-世纪尺度变化。从1860年到1960年,δ 13c的下降涉及一系列步骤,证实了与co2记录相比,δ 13c对年代际时间尺度强迫的敏感性增强。与“小冰期”二氧化碳减少同步,δ 13c的增强意味着陆地对较低温度的响应。公元1200 ~ 1600年,大气δ 13c趋于稳定。DOI: 10.1034 / j.1600 0889.1999.t01 - 1 - 00005. x
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引用次数: 750
The annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use 1850–1990* 1850-1990年土地利用变化每年向大气的净碳通量*
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 1999-04-01 DOI: 10.3402/TELLUSB.V51I2.16288
R. Houghton
Rates of land-use change, including clearing for agriculture and harvest of wood, were reconstructed from statistical and historic documents for 9 world regions and used, along with the per ha changes in vegetation and soil that result from land management, to calculate the annual flux of carbon between land and atmosphere. Between 1850 and 1990, changes in land use are calculated to have added 124 PgC to the atmosphere, about half as much as released from combustion of fossil fuels over this period. About 108 PgC are estimated to have been transferred from forests to the atmosphere as a result of human activity, 2/3 from tropical forests and 1/3 from temperate zone and boreal forests. Another 16 PgC were lost from non-forests, largely as a result of cultivation of mid-latitude grassland soils. About 800 × 10 6 ha of forest were cleared for agricultural purposes, and approximately 2000 × 10 6 ha were harvested. Conversion of forests to agricultural lands released 105 PgC; harvest of wood released about 20 PgC. These estimates of release include the accumulations of carbon in wood products (17 PgC) and woody debris (4 PgC), the losses of carbon from oxidation of wood products, woody debris, and soil organic matter (373 PgC in total), and the accumulations of carbon in forests recovering from harvest and in the fallows of shifting cultivation (249 PgC). Over the decade of the 1980s the annual net flux of carbon from changes in land use averaged about 2.0 PgC yr −1 , higher than the 1.6 PgC yr −1 estimated previously. Almost all of this flux was from tropical regions, where rates of deforestation averaged approximately 15 × 10 6 ha yr −1 . Outside the tropics, regrowth of forests logged in earlier years largely balanced the losses of carbon from oxidation of wood products. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0889.1999.00013.x
根据9个世界区域的统计和历史文件重建了土地利用变化率,包括开垦农业用地和砍伐木材,并将其与土地管理导致的每公顷植被和土壤变化一起用于计算土地和大气之间的年碳通量。据计算,在1850年至1990年间,土地利用的变化向大气中增加了124种PgC,大约是同期化石燃料燃烧释放的PgC的一半。据估计,由于人类活动,大约有108种PgC从森林转移到大气中,其中2/3来自热带森林,1/3来自温带和北方森林。另外16个PgC来自非森林,主要是由于中纬度草地土壤的种植。大约800 × 10.6公顷的森林被砍伐用于农业,大约2000 × 10.6公顷的森林被采伐。退耕还林释放105 PgC;收获的木材释放约20 PgC。这些释放估计包括木制品(17 PgC)和木屑(4 PgC)中的碳积累,木制品、木屑和土壤有机质氧化导致的碳损失(总共373 PgC),以及采伐后恢复的森林和轮作休耕地中的碳积累(249 PgC)。在20世纪80年代的十年中,土地利用变化产生的年净碳通量平均约为2.0 PgC /年,高于先前估计的1.6 PgC /年。几乎所有这些通量都来自热带地区,那里的森林砍伐率平均约为15 × 106公顷/年。在热带地区以外,早期砍伐的森林的再生在很大程度上平衡了木材产品氧化造成的碳损失。DOI: 10.1034 / j.1600-0889.1999.00013.x
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引用次数: 800
Modelled and observed sea surface fCO2 in the southern ocean: a comparative study 模拟和观测的南大洋海面co2:比较研究
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 1999-04-01 DOI: 10.1034/J.1600-0889.1999.00029.X
F. Louanchi, M. Hoppema, D. Bakker, A. Poisson, M. Stoll, H. Baar, B. Schauer, D. Ruiz-Pino, D. Wolf-Gladrow
The results of an existing one-dimensional diagnostic model that calculates the fugacity of CO 2 (fCO 2 ) in the surface layer of the southern ocean were compared with in situ observations from different ocean sectors and seasons. Our model is based on the translation of monthly variations of constraints fields into surface water fCO 2 variations, and was used to assess the CO 2 uptake of the southern ocean. In situ observations are useful to verify the model results and were here applied to improve the estimation of the CO 2 uptake of the southern ocean south of 50 S. The model reproduces the fCO 2 distribution in both Pacific and Indian sectors of the southern ocean satisfactorily, the mean deviation being only 5 μatm. This diserepancy requires only a minor modification of the CO 2 uptake calculated by the model for that area. By contrast, the model strongly underestimates the fCO 2 levels in carly spring and early winter in the Weddell gyre. This indicates that the CO 2 uptake by the Atlantic sector of the southern ocean as calculated by the model, amounting to 0.47 GtC yr -1 . should be reduced, possibly by about half of this value. The reason for this mismatch lies in the use of climatological physical constraints by the model, that do not sufficiently well describe reality. Partly, the mismatch is also caused by a difference of seasonal stage between the model which reflects climatological conditions and the real ocean which is affected by interannual variability. Based on this study it is concluded that the CO 2 uptake of the southern ocean south of 50 S is likely to lie somewhere between 0.6 and 0.7 GtC yr -1 for the 1990s, which is a high value compared to estimates from other investigations.
利用现有的一维诊断模式计算了南大洋表层co2逸度(fCO 2),并将其结果与不同海域和季节的现场观测结果进行了比较。我们的模型基于将约束场的月变化转化为地表水fCO 2变化,并用于评估南大洋的CO 2吸收。现场观测结果可用于验证模式结果,并用于改进50 s以南南大洋co2吸收的估计。该模式令人满意地再现了南大洋太平洋和印度扇区的fCO 2分布,平均偏差仅为5 μatm。这种差异只需要对该地区的模型计算的二氧化碳吸收量进行微小的修改。相比之下,该模式严重低估了威德尔环流早春和初冬的fCO 2水平。这表明,根据模式计算,南大洋大西洋部分的二氧化碳吸收量为每年0.47千兆吨。应该减少,可能是这个值的一半左右。造成这种不匹配的原因在于模式使用的气候物理约束条件不能很好地描述实际情况。反映气候条件的模式与受年际变率影响的真实海洋之间的季节阶段差异,也在一定程度上造成了这种失配。根据这项研究,得出的结论是,20世纪90年代南纬50度以南的南大洋的二氧化碳吸收量可能介于0.6至0.7千兆吨/年之间,与其他调查的估计值相比,这是一个很高的值。
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引用次数: 22
The interannual variability of the global carbon cycle 全球碳循环的年际变化
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 1999-04-01 DOI: 10.3402/TELLUSB.V51I2.16271
P. Rayner, R. Law
(1999). The interannual variability of the global carbon cycle. Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology: Vol. 51, No. 2, pp. 210-212.
(1999)。全球碳循环的年际变化。《化学与物理气象学》,第51卷第2期,页210-212。
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引用次数: 114
Biomass of forest stands under climatic change: a German case study with the Frankfurt biosphere model (FBM) 气候变化下的林分生物量:基于法兰克福生物圈模型的德国案例研究
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Pub Date : 1999-04-01 DOI: 10.3402/TELLUSB.V51I2.16309
C. Häger, G. Würth, G. Kohlmaier
In this contribution, we perform a case study of the German forests. We couple the Frankfurt biosphere model (FBM) with a model of the age class development (AGEDYN). The coupled model is applied to simulate the temporal development of carbon pools in German forests under the influence of climate change taking into account changes in the age class structure. In the base case, the growth of forest stands is simulated using a temporally averaged climate dataset, being representative for the contemporary climate conditions. To assess the sensitivity of forest growth to changes in environmental conditions, the FBM is run in several scenarios. In these simulations the effects both of climate change and of the direct effect of increased levels of atmospheric CO 2 on photosynthesis (CO 2 fertilization) on forest growth are assessed. In another simulation run with the FBM both effects — climate change and CO 2 fertilization — are combined. In simulations under present day's climate conditions a good agreement is gained between simulation results and statistical data of the present standing stock carbon density of Germany's forests. A pure climate change leads to a decrease of the annual increments as well as to the climax standing stocks. The negative effect of climate change alone is overcompensated by enhanced photosynthesis in the simulations with combined climate change and CO 2 fertilization. In the transient case, the coupled model is used in two scenarios describing first a continuation of present day's climate conditions and second a transient climate change from present conditions (1990) to 2 × CO 2 conditions in 2090. Here, the simulations indicate that changes in the forest's age class structure can have a stronger influence on the future carbon balance of the forests in the considered region than the combined efffect of climate change and CO 2 fertilization. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0889.1999.00019.x
在这篇文章中,我们对德国森林进行了一个案例研究。我们将法兰克福生物圈模型(FBM)与年龄等级发展模型(AGEDYN)相结合。利用耦合模型模拟了气候变化影响下德国森林碳库的时间发展,并考虑了年龄级结构的变化。在基本情况下,使用代表当代气候条件的时间平均气候数据集模拟林分的生长。为了评估森林生长对环境条件变化的敏感性,在几种情况下运行了FBM。在这些模拟中,评估了气候变化的影响以及大气中二氧化碳含量增加对光合作用(二氧化碳施肥)对森林生长的直接影响。在另一个用FBM运行的模拟中,两种效应——气候变化和二氧化碳施肥——被结合在一起。在当前气候条件下的模拟中,模拟结果与德国森林现有蓄积量碳密度的统计数据吻合较好。单纯的气候变化导致年增长量减少,顶极林分蓄积量减少。在气候变化和CO 2联合施肥的模拟中,单纯气候变化的负面影响被增强的光合作用过度补偿。在瞬态情况下,耦合模式用于两种情景,第一种情景描述当前气候条件的延续,第二种情景描述从当前条件(1990年)到2090年2 × co2条件的瞬态气候变化。模拟结果表明,森林年龄级结构的变化对未来森林碳平衡的影响要大于气候变化和co2施肥的综合影响。DOI: 10.1034 / j.1600-0889.1999.00019.x
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology
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