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Demand on Digital Skills in Russia: Regional Differences 俄罗斯对数字技能的需求:地区差异
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.14530/se.2023.1.070-092
S. Kapelyuk, I. Karelin
This paper examines regional differences in the demand for digital skills based on an analysis of 9 million vacancies posted on the Unified Digital Platform ‘Work in Russia’ in 2018–2022. We examine approaches used in the literature to classify digital skills and using it develop our own classification. The paper studies the advantages and limitations of various indicators of the demand for digital skills. We suggest that the ratio between the share of vacancies requiring digital skills of a certain group in the region and the labor force population should be used as the most appropriate one. The results of the study show that in Russia there is still a significant regional differentiation in the employer’s demand for all selected groups. Differentiation increased with the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, and decreased slightly in 2021–2022. We reveal that regions with a higher level of economic development have higher requirements for digital skills. Digital skills are more often required in regions specialized on primary production and less often in agricultural regions. Of the federal districts, a slightly higher level of demand for digital skills is observed in the Ural and Far Eastern federal districts, while a significantly lower level is observed in the North Caucasus federal district
本文基于对2018-2022年统一数字平台“俄罗斯工作”上发布的900万个职位空缺的分析,研究了数字技能需求的地区差异。我们研究了文献中使用的方法来对数字技能进行分类,并利用它来发展我们自己的分类。本文研究了各种数字技能需求指标的优势和局限性。我们建议以该地区某一群体需要数字技能的职位空缺份额与劳动力人口的比例为最合适的比例。研究结果表明,在俄罗斯,雇主对所有选定群体的需求仍然存在显著的地区差异。随着Covid-19大流行的开始,分化有所增加,并在2021-2022年略有下降。我们发现,经济发展水平越高的地区对数字技能的要求越高。专门从事初级生产的地区往往更需要数字技能,而农业地区则不太需要。在联邦区中,乌拉尔和远东联邦区对数字技能的需求水平略高,而北高加索联邦区对数字技能的需求水平明显较低
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引用次数: 2
Russia’s Gold Mining Industry: Sanctions Shocks 俄罗斯黄金采矿业:制裁冲击
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.14530/se.2023.2.070-093
N. Galtseva, O. Sharypova
The deliberate fragmentation of the world market as a result of the establishment of a global sanctions regime provoked a complete transition of both the Russian and the entire world economy to non-stationary modes of operation, one of the fundamental features of which are the deformations of the global monetary and financial system, which only two years ago seemed to have no alternative to the one based on the US dollar. One of the consequences of these events is the objective strengthening of the role of gold as the basis for the stability of national reserves and a single base in the transition to a plurality of global means of payment. The only source of replenishing gold reserves is gold mining, especially for modern Russia, which Western sanctions have effectively cut off from the world trade in gold. Russia has traditionally been one of the world leaders in terms of gold reserves and resources, ranking third in world production. Gold production in Russia increased by a factor of 1.5 in 2012–2021, facilitated by the growth rate of the Russian gold price relative to the global price due to the rise in the dollar exchange rate after 2014. At the same time, the share of gold in Russia’s gold and foreign exchange reserves is three times smaller than that of developed countries. This article discusses the problems of production localised in the regions of the Russian Far East and Siberia, its impact on the socio-economic development of these regions and the role of gold in the country’s economy. The impact of sanctions on the circulation of precious metals, including gold, is assessed. The authors assess the effects of external sanctions and the macroeconomic policy of the Russian Central Bank in terms of replenishing gold reserves and the volatility of the Russian ruble on gold production, the structure of gold consumption, and the economic situation in the gold mining industry
由于全球制裁制度的建立,故意使世界市场分裂,这促使俄罗斯和整个世界经济完全过渡到不稳定的运作模式,其基本特征之一是全球货币和金融制度的变形,仅在两年前,全球货币和金融制度似乎没有其他选择,只能以美元为基础。这些事件的后果之一是,在向多种全球支付手段过渡的过程中,黄金作为国家储备稳定的基础和单一基础的作用得到了客观的加强。补充黄金储备的唯一来源是黄金开采,尤其是对现代俄罗斯来说,西方的制裁已经有效地切断了俄罗斯与世界黄金贸易的联系。俄罗斯在黄金储备和资源方面一直是世界领先的国家之一,在世界产量中排名第三。2012年至2021年,俄罗斯的黄金产量增长了1.5倍,这得益于2014年后美元汇率上升导致俄罗斯黄金价格相对于全球价格的增长。与此同时,黄金在俄罗斯黄金和外汇储备中所占的份额比发达国家少三分之一。本文讨论了俄罗斯远东和西伯利亚地区的生产问题,其对这些地区社会经济发展的影响以及黄金在国家经济中的作用。对制裁对包括黄金在内的贵金属流通的影响进行了评估。作者评估了外部制裁和俄罗斯中央银行的宏观经济政策在补充黄金储备方面的影响,以及俄罗斯卢布对黄金生产、黄金消费结构和黄金采矿业经济形势的波动
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引用次数: 0
The Russia’s Far East: Traditional Routes of Spatial Development and Their Modern Transformation 俄罗斯远东地区:空间发展的传统路径及其现代转型
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.14530/se.2023.2.028-046
A. Savchenko, T. Borodina, A. Treivish
The experience of exploration and development of the Russia’s Far East from different directions, at different scales of time and space is summarized, starting from the foundation of Vladivostok in 1860, the most remote large city from both Russian capitals. It is shown that the maritime (eastern) route in the past and the space route today play no less a role in the development of the macroregion than the traditional overland (western) path. The sea ways played a decisive role until the launch of the Trans-Siberian Railway entirely across the territory of Russia in 1916, and since the beginning of the 1970s, the symbiosis of digital and space technologies makes it possible to remove restrictions on the spatial accessibility of an ever wider range of functions, land and water areas, concurrently expanding the opportunities for their consolidation and integration into both the national territory of Russia, and Greater Eurasia. Exploration of Space as a part of geosphere laid the foundation for the transformation of the traditional model of the Far East spatial development, with competition and alternating dominance of the land and sea routes. Since the early 1970s, within the framework of this transformation, the division of labor between modes and systems of transport and directions of communication has been gradually harmonized, when the development of the macroregion from the sea and by land are increasingly acting not as competing, but as complementary
从1860年符拉迪沃斯托克(距离两个俄罗斯首都最远的大城市)的建立开始,总结了在不同方向、不同时空尺度上对俄罗斯远东地区进行勘探开发的经验。研究表明,过去的海上(东)路线和今天的太空路线在宏观区域发展中的作用不亚于传统的陆上(西)路线。在1916年横贯俄罗斯全境的西伯利亚铁路开通之前,海上通道一直发挥着决定性的作用。自20世纪70年代初以来,数字技术和空间技术的共生使人们有可能消除对更广泛功能、陆地和水域的空间可达性的限制,同时扩大了它们巩固和融入俄罗斯国家领土和大欧亚大陆的机会。作为地圈一部分的空间探索为远东空间发展传统模式的转变奠定了基础,陆上和海上路线的竞争和交替主导。自20世纪70年代初以来,在这种转变的框架内,运输方式和系统之间的劳动分工以及通信方向逐渐协调一致,从海上和陆地的宏观区域的发展越来越不是竞争,而是互补
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引用次数: 0
Transformation of Money and Financial Instruments of the Market in Conditions of Regionalization of the World Economy 世界经济区域化条件下市场货币金融工具的转型
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.14530/se.2023.1.168-186
A. Novoselov, Alexander Faleev
The problems of transforming the elements of the global monetary and financial system in the direction of regionalization are discussed. The issues of prospects for de-dollarization and possible scenarios for switching to alternative means of payment in regional trade are discussed, five main scenarios for the development of the de-dollarization course are identified. The vulnerabilities of the Jamaican system in the context of global risks are identified. The analysis of the actual conditions for the formation of exchange rates is carried out. The main factors of the US dollar exchange rate formation are considered. A comparative analysis of the euro as a tool for replacing the world reserve currency is carried out, the weak position of the euro as a promising ‘donor’ of the US dollar has been revealed. The main threats to the economies of developing countries with weak national monetary institutions are formulated. An assessment of the structure of the distribution of investment gold among the national banks of the largest holders of reserves in precious metals is given, the dynamics of gold production and the dynamics of increment of reserves by national banks of the largest countries are considered, the prospects of gold mining and its distribution in the system of international finance are assessed. The applicability of futures of the main commodity markets as investment reserves is considered, the volatility of oil futures in terms of gold has been assessed. The prospects of the cryptocurrency market instruments as instruments for replacing the world reserve currency are assessed, the strengths and weaknesses of the processes of formation of crypto-tools markets are revealed
讨论了向区域化方向转变全球货币和金融体系要素的问题。讨论了去美元化的前景问题和在区域贸易中转向其他支付手段的可能情况,并确定了发展去美元化进程的五个主要情况。确定了牙买加制度在全球风险背景下的脆弱性。对汇率形成的实际条件进行了分析。考虑了美元汇率形成的主要因素。对欧元作为替代世界储备货币的工具进行了比较分析,揭示了欧元作为美元有希望的“捐助者”的弱势地位。阐述了国家货币机构薄弱的发展中国家经济面临的主要威胁。对贵金属储备最大持有者的国家银行之间投资黄金的分布结构进行了评估,考虑了黄金生产的动态和最大国家的国家银行储备增量的动态,评估了黄金开采的前景及其在国际金融体系中的分布。考虑了主要商品市场期货作为投资储备的适用性,评估了石油期货相对于黄金的波动性。评估了加密货币市场工具作为取代世界储备货币的工具的前景,揭示了加密工具市场形成过程的优势和劣势
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引用次数: 0
Fertility and Female Unemployment in Russian Regions 俄罗斯地区生育率和女性失业率
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.14530/se.2023.1.020-051
B. Alekhin
This paper examines economic and demographic determinants of fertility, using panel data for 82 regions of the Russian Federation for 2000–2021. Panel co-integration technique is used to find out whether there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship between total fertility rate (TFR) and these determinants. We show that the growth of TFR is due largely to the growth of nuptiality rate, old age demographic burden, female wages, domestic labor migration and female unemployment rate, while the decline is associated with female economic activity and urbanization. In 2000–2011 the combined effect of stimulants prevailed over the combined effect of inhibitors, and TFR tended to grow. In 2011–2021 the negative impact of female economic activity and urbanization increased, and TFR began to decline. Pairwise Granger causality test shows that female unemployment, economic activity and urbanization cause fertility, but not vice versa, while causation is bidirectional in other cases. These results support some theoretical predictions and empirical evidence and contradict some others
本文使用2000-2021年俄罗斯联邦82个地区的面板数据,研究了生育率的经济和人口决定因素。采用面板协整技术,考察总生育率与这些因素之间是否存在长期均衡关系。研究表明,生育率的增长主要是由于结婚率、老年人口负担、女性工资、国内劳动力迁移和女性失业率的增长,而生育率的下降则与女性经济活动和城市化有关。2000-2011年,兴奋剂的联合作用优于抑制剂的联合作用,TFR呈增长趋势。2011-2021年,女性经济活动和城市化的负面影响增加,总生育率开始下降。格兰杰因果关系检验表明,女性成对失业、经济活动和城市化导致生育能力,但不是亦然,而因果关系是双向的在其他情况下。这些结果支持一些理论预测和经验证据,并与其他一些相矛盾
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引用次数: 1
XXIV Yasin (April) International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development 第二十四届亚辛(4月)经济和社会发展国际学术会议
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.14530/se.2023.2.188-190
O. Vasilyeva
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引用次数: 0
The Foreign Trade Factor of the Force Majeure Economy: A Spatial Manoeuvre 不可抗力经济的对外贸易因素:一个空间策略
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.14530/se.2023.1.007-019
P. Minakir
This paper considers the role of foreign trade interactions in forming a new macroeconomic equilibrium and equilibrium in the commodity market in the context of massive sanctions. The author analyzes the relations between the tools and conditions for maintaining foreign trade dynamics, and the role and proportion of traditional and new commodity markets in adapting to sanctions regimes. It is shown that in 2022 the spatial reformatting of foreign markets for Russian importers and exporters was more characteristic of import supplies. It is concluded that amid extraordinary financial and economic turmoil of 2022, which suddenly hit not only the Russian economy, but the entire global economy, the Russian economic system, for all its losses, held on to acceptable parameters, and foreign trade played an important role in this. It was determined that the instruments used in 2022 to reformat the spatial structure of markets could be substantially weakened over a long period
本文考虑了在大规模制裁背景下外贸相互作用在形成新的宏观经济均衡和商品市场均衡中的作用。作者分析了维持对外贸易活力的工具和条件之间的关系,以及传统和新商品市场在适应制裁制度方面的作用和比例。研究表明,2022年俄罗斯进口商和出口商的国外市场空间重构更具进口供应特征。结论是,在2022年非同寻常的金融和经济动荡中,突然袭击的不仅是俄罗斯经济,还有整个全球经济,俄罗斯经济体系尽管遭受了所有损失,但仍保持了可接受的参数,对外贸易在其中发挥了重要作用。据确定,2022年用于重塑市场空间结构的工具可能会在很长一段时间内大大削弱
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引用次数: 2
The Economics of Force Majeure: The Price of ‘Financial Stability’ 不可抗力经济学:“金融稳定”的代价
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.14530/se.2023.2.007-027
P. Minakir
In this paper, it is shown that, despite a tremendous number of sanctions that significantly modify the conditions of financial and economic equilibrium in Russia, the basic mechanisms, priorities and construction of the goals of the financial and economic policy have not changed. This is especially true for monetary and fiscal policy. The analysis of the parameters and results of budget planning for 2022–2023 has been carried out. Although there are no catastrophic failures of macroeconomic indicators according to the Ministry of Finance in 2022 and the official projections of the 2023 budget do not promise an increase in problems, the discrepancy between the actual possibilities to increase revenues and the imperative requirements to increase budget expenditures signal a serious deterioration of the budget situation, which requires urgent and adequate solutions. The author discusses the prospect of the state budget deficit turning into a permanent phenomenon accompanying the country’s economic development for a long period, due to the indefinite period of revenue suppression and acceleration of state budget expenditures, the reasons of which are long military expenditures and the duration of restructuring the structure and mechanisms of global and subglobal financial and economic interactions. In this paper, estimates of the budget deficit, which are alternative to the official data, have been made; estimates of real sizes and dynamics of budget deficits are proposed; and the concept of hierarchy and target concentration of budget expenditures is argued. The main tools for financing budget deficits (the National Welfare Fund, ruble devaluation, money emission, government borrowings) are analyzed, the possibilities and potential limits of their use are shown. It is shown that all of them, except domestic government borrowings, give a short-term effect and at the same time have a negative impact on macroeconomic equilibrium. The possibilities, direct and indirect consequences of the policy of reduction of budget expenditures are considered
本文表明,尽管大量制裁措施显著改变了俄罗斯财政和经济均衡的条件,但财政和经济政策的基本机制、优先事项和目标构建并没有改变。货币和财政政策尤其如此。对2022-2023年预算规划的参数和结果进行了分析。尽管2022年财政部的宏观经济指标没有出现灾难性的失败,官方对2023年预算的预测也没有承诺问题会增加,但增加收入的实际可能性与增加预算支出的迫切要求之间的差异表明预算状况严重恶化,这需要紧急和充分的解决方案。由于长期的财政收入抑制和国家预算支出的加速,以及长期的全球和亚全球金融经济互动结构和机制的重构,国家预算赤字将成为长期伴随国家经济发展的永久性现象。本文对预算赤字进行了替代官方数据的估计;提出了预算赤字实际规模和动态的估计;并对预算支出的层次性和目标集中度的概念进行了论证。分析了为预算赤字融资的主要工具(国家福利基金、卢布贬值、货币发行、政府借款),并指出了这些工具使用的可能性和潜在限制。结果表明,除国内政府借款外,所有这些借款都具有短期效应,同时对宏观经济均衡产生负面影响。审议了削减预算支出政策的可能性、直接和间接后果
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引用次数: 0
WTO Accession Factors and Algeria’s Potential: A Comparative Study with Russia and Saudi 加入WTO因素与阿尔及利亚潜力:与俄罗斯、沙特的比较研究
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.14530/se.2023.2.169-186
Ismail Amani, Farah Naima Guechairi
This paper aims to assess the factors affecting the accession to the WTO and hence evaluate Algeria’s potential to complete its accession. Literature identifies 4 principal factors that can affect the process: economical, political, commercial and institutional. Thus, a comparative and empirical study has been done based on a weighted score method, this method put all factors in the same scale from 0 to 10 points for the three countries: Algeria, Russia and Saudi Arabia. Results show that Algeria has have an acceptable rating compared to the two other countries in institutional factor, as they have average governance scores, and political, as none of the three countries is aligned with WTO major. While it is much lower than Russia in economic framework, even if Saudi Arabia is at same level, this is mainly due to lack of diversification and subsidies, especially fuel prices. In the commercial factor Algeria is far from the other two countries as it lacks many adjustments in this sector, mainly in applied tariffs, FDI, exports and PTAs. Negotiation duration is also holding back the accession process, this can become even more difficult as it extend more. In the other hand, oil prices fluctuations can enhance institutional factors while new regional trade agreement can constitute a more interesting alternative to WTO accession
本文旨在评估影响加入世贸组织的因素,从而评估阿尔及利亚完成其加入的潜力。文献确定了影响这一进程的4个主要因素:经济、政治、商业和制度。因此,本文采用加权分数法对阿尔及利亚、俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯这三个国家进行了比较和实证研究,该方法将所有因素都放在相同的范围内,从0到10分。结果显示,与其他两个国家相比,阿尔及利亚在制度因素和政治方面的评级都是可以接受的,因为这两个国家的治理得分平均,而这三个国家都没有与WTO主要国家保持一致。虽然在经济框架上远低于俄罗斯,但即使沙特处于同一水平,这主要是由于缺乏多样化和补贴,特别是燃料价格。在商业因素方面,阿尔及利亚与其他两个国家相距甚远,因为它在这一部门缺乏许多调整,主要是在实施关税、外国直接投资、出口和自由贸易协定方面。谈判时间也阻碍了加入进程,随着时间的延长,这可能会变得更加困难。另一方面,石油价格波动可以加强体制因素,而新的区域贸易协定可以成为加入世贸组织之外更有趣的选择
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引用次数: 0
Local Factors and COVID-19 Severity: Typological Analysis of Urban Districts in Russia 当地因素与COVID-19严重程度:俄罗斯城市地区的类型分析
IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.14530/se.2023.1.093-120
R. Goncharov, Egor Kotov, V. Molodtsova
The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that the lack of consideration of the local specifics of territories, such as the specifics of socio-economic interactions, labor market characteristics, leads to serious social or economic consequences when developing response measures to epidemiological threats. The creation of a typology of territories (urban districts / okrugs) makes it possible to more accurately select measures to regulate socio-economic interactions in the event of future complications of the epidemiological situation. Clustering of municipalities according to a set of local factors that significantly explain the severity of the pandemic in the first year made it possible to identify three types of urban districts that differ in population size and intensity of socio-economic interactions (SEI): these are key service centers with a high intensity of SEI, local centers with medium SEI intensity, small towns with low SEI intensity
2019冠状病毒病大流行表明,在制定应对流行病学威胁的措施时,如果不考虑各地区的具体情况,例如社会经济相互作用的具体情况、劳动力市场特征,就会导致严重的社会或经济后果。建立领土类型(城市地区/地区)可以更准确地选择措施,以便在未来流行病情况复杂化的情况下调节社会经济相互作用。根据能够显著解释第一年流行病严重程度的一套当地因素对城市进行聚类,从而可以确定人口规模和社会经济相互作用强度不同的三种类型的城市地区:社会经济相互作用强度高的关键服务中心、中等社会经济相互作用强度的地方中心、低社会经济相互作用强度的小城镇
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引用次数: 1
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