In this note, we consider a case when a forestry property may lose its market value through “political risk”, illustrated here by it being classified as containing a key biotope. If a key biotope is found on a forest property in Sweden, the wood is almost impossible to sell. We show how the Faustmann formula is modified in this case and identify a “balance sheet” effect and document the incentive properties (the “kill an owl, save a logger” effect observed in the Spotted Owl controversy). The theory seems to have some empirical support, given observed changes in bank lending contracts and alleged changes in forester's behavior to reduce the ”political risk.”
{"title":"The Infinitely Worried Forest Owner\u0000Key Biotopes and Forest Certification\u0000in a Faustmann Model","authors":"B. Kriström, P. Johansson","doi":"10.1561/112.00000502","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1561/112.00000502","url":null,"abstract":"In this note, we consider a case when a forestry property may lose its market value through “political risk”, illustrated here by it being classified as containing a key biotope. If a key biotope is found on a forest property in Sweden, the wood is almost impossible to sell. We show how the Faustmann formula is modified in this case and identify a “balance sheet” effect and document the incentive properties (the “kill an owl, save a logger” effect observed in the Spotted Owl controversy). The theory seems to have some empirical support, given observed changes in bank lending contracts and alleged changes in forester's behavior to reduce the ”political risk.”","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":"35 1","pages":"69-73"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2020-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45299738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Timberland Asset Pricing in the\u0000United States","authors":"Daowei Zhang, Richard W. Hall","doi":"10.1561/112.00000448","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1561/112.00000448","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":"35 1","pages":"43-67"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2020-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42888237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Consequences of Discount Rate Selection for Financial and Ecological Expectation and Risk in Forest Management
贴现率选择对森林经营中财务和生态预期及风险的影响
{"title":"Consequences of Discount Rate\u0000Selection for Financial and Ecological\u0000Expectation and Risk in Forest\u0000Management","authors":"J. Buongiorno, Mo Zhou","doi":"10.1561/112.00000515","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1561/112.00000515","url":null,"abstract":"Consequences of Discount Rate Selection for Financial and Ecological Expectation and Risk in Forest Management","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":"35 1","pages":"1-17"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2020-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46741040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using a partial equilibrium model of the Swedish forest sector, this study analyzes the impacts of an increasing bioenergy production on the timber harvest and forest growing stock. The impacts on ...
使用瑞典森林部门的部分平衡模型，本研究分析了增加生物能源生产对木材采伐和森林蓄积量的影响。对……
{"title":"Impacts of Increasing Bioenergy\u0000Production on Timber Harvest and\u0000Carbon Emissions","authors":"Jinggang Guo, P. Gong, R. Brännlund","doi":"10.1561/112.00000500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1561/112.00000500","url":null,"abstract":"Using a partial equilibrium model of the Swedish forest sector, this study analyzes the impacts of an increasing bioenergy production on the timber harvest and forest growing stock. The impacts on ...","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2019-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42461413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Deforestation from timber harvests and farmland conversions have led to 565 GtCO2 (billion tons of carbon dioxide) being emitted into the atmosphere. Taking into account natural regeneration on forestland, Houghton (2003, 2008) and Houghton et al. (2012) estimate that deforestation has caused a net loss of 484 GtCO2 since 1900 which is about one third of all manmade emissions. However, these estimates do not take into account the substantial investment into fire management, plantations, and replanting since 1950, as well as the effect of carbon fertilization on a younger forest. We compare the outcome of a deforestation scenario with subsequent forest management with what would have happened if the natural forest in 1900 had not been harvested thereafter. Deforestation plus forest management suggests current forests actually hold about 94 GtCO2 more today than they did in 1900. However, natural forests would have held an additional 186 GtCO2. Human activities on forestland have therefore caused about 92 GtCO2 of net emissions since 1900. The effect of manmade land use and land use change is relatively small compared to the 1294 GtCO2 from industrial emissions over the same time period (Marland et al., 2008).
{"title":"The Net Carbon Emissions from\u0000Historic Land Use and Land Use\u0000Change","authors":"R. Mendelsohn, B. Sohngen","doi":"10.1561/112.00000505","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1561/112.00000505","url":null,"abstract":"Deforestation from timber harvests and farmland conversions have led to 565 GtCO2 (billion tons of carbon dioxide) being emitted into the atmosphere. Taking into account natural regeneration on forestland, Houghton (2003, 2008) and Houghton et al. (2012) estimate that deforestation has caused a net loss of 484 GtCO2 since 1900 which is about one third of all manmade emissions. However, these estimates do not take into account the substantial investment into fire management, plantations, and replanting since 1950, as well as the effect of carbon fertilization on a younger forest. We compare the outcome of a deforestation scenario with subsequent forest management with what would have happened if the natural forest in 1900 had not been harvested thereafter. Deforestation plus forest management suggests current forests actually hold about 94 GtCO2 more today than they did in 1900. However, natural forests would have held an additional 186 GtCO2. Human activities on forestland have therefore caused about 92 GtCO2 of net emissions since 1900. The effect of manmade land use and land use change is relatively small compared to the 1294 GtCO2 from industrial emissions over the same time period (Marland et al., 2008).","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2019-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1561/112.00000505","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43160174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A Shared Socio-economic Pathway Approach to Assessing the Future of the New Zealand Forest Sector
评估新西兰森林部门未来的共享社会经济途径方法
{"title":"A Shared Socio-economic Pathway\u0000Approach to Assessing the Future of\u0000the New Zealand Forest Sector","authors":"A. Daigneault","doi":"10.1561/112.00000501","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1561/112.00000501","url":null,"abstract":"A Shared Socio-economic Pathway Approach to Assessing the Future of the New Zealand Forest Sector","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2019-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46898937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
P. Lauri, N. Forsell, M. Gusti, A. Korosuo, P. Havlík, M. Obersteiner
In this study, we investigate the effects of climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development on global forest resources use. The analysis is based on the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), which is a recursive dynamic land-use model. Climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development are included in the model as exogenous parameters taken from the SSP-RCP scenarios, which separate between the shared socioeconomic pathways(“SSPs”) and the representative concentration pathways (“RCPs”). The effect of SSP-RCP scenarios is restricted to factors that are quantitatively documented in the SSP database (economic growth, population growth, bioenergy demand, and carbon prices). Our results indicate that both climate change mitigation and socio-economic development may increase harvest volumes and harvested area considerably in the future. This happens because there are no opportunity costs of using forest area for harvesting in the model. We show that such opportunity costs can be added in the model by considering carbon storage changes between forest types and carbon payments on them. These payments increases woody biomass prices and make woody biomass harvesting for modern bioenergy less profitable mitigation option relative to carbon sequestration in the standing forests. However, the payments do not have much impact on the profitability of woody biomass harvesting for material products and traditional bioenergy. The reason is that energy crops provide a substitute for woody biomass use for modern bioenergy while there are less substitutes available for woody biomass use for material products and traditional bioenergy. Provided that carbon payments can be used as a policy instrument to control impacts of climate change mitigation on harvest volumes and harvested area, an unfavorable future socioeconomic development may cause a greater threat to the world’s forests than climate change mitigation.
{"title":"Global Woody Biomass Harvest\u0000Volumes and Forest Area Use Under\u0000Different SSP-RCP Scenarios","authors":"P. Lauri, N. Forsell, M. Gusti, A. Korosuo, P. Havlík, M. Obersteiner","doi":"10.1561/112.00000504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1561/112.00000504","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we investigate the effects of climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development on global forest resources use. The analysis is based on the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), which is a recursive dynamic land-use model. Climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development are included in the model as exogenous parameters taken from the SSP-RCP scenarios, which separate between the shared socioeconomic pathways(“SSPs”) and the representative concentration pathways (“RCPs”). The effect of SSP-RCP scenarios is restricted to factors that are quantitatively documented in the SSP database (economic growth, population growth, bioenergy demand, and carbon prices). Our results indicate that both climate change mitigation and socio-economic development may increase harvest volumes and harvested area considerably in the future. This happens because there are no opportunity costs of using forest area for harvesting in the model. We show that such opportunity costs can be added in the model by considering carbon storage changes between forest types and carbon payments on them. These payments increases woody biomass prices and make woody biomass harvesting for modern bioenergy less profitable mitigation option relative to carbon sequestration in the standing forests. However, the payments do not have much impact on the profitability of woody biomass harvesting for material products and traditional bioenergy. The reason is that energy crops provide a substitute for woody biomass use for modern bioenergy while there are less substitutes available for woody biomass use for material products and traditional bioenergy. Provided that carbon payments can be used as a policy instrument to control impacts of climate change mitigation on harvest volumes and harvested area, an unfavorable future socioeconomic development may cause a greater threat to the world’s forests than climate change mitigation.","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2019-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41528213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Brent Sohngen, Marwa E Salem, Justin S Baker, Michael J Shell, Sei Jin Kim
This paper uses Monte Carlo methods and regression analysis to assess the role of uncertainty in yield function and land supply elasticity parameters on land use, carbon, and market outcomes in a long-term dynamic model of the global forest sector. The results suggest that parametric uncertainty has little influence on projected future timber prices and global output, but it does have important implications for regional projections of outputs. A wide range of outcomes are possible for timber outputs, depending on growth and elasticity parameters. Timber output in the U.S., for instance, could change by -67 to +98 million m3 per year by 2060. Despite uncertainty in the parameters, our analysis suggests that the temperate zone may sequester +30 to +79 Pg C by 2060 and +58 to +114 Pg C by 2090 while the tropics are projected to store -35 to +70 Pg C and -33 to +73 Pg C for the same time periods, respectively. Attributional analysis shows that uncertainty in the parameters regulating forest growth has a more important impact on projections of future carbon storage than uncertainty in the land supply elasticity parameters. Moreover, the results suggest that understanding growth parameters in regions with large current carbon stocks is most important for making future projections of carbon storage.
{"title":"The Influence of Parametric Uncertainty on Projections of Forest Land Use, Carbon, and Markets.","authors":"Brent Sohngen, Marwa E Salem, Justin S Baker, Michael J Shell, Sei Jin Kim","doi":"10.1561/112.00000445","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1561/112.00000445","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This paper uses Monte Carlo methods and regression analysis to assess the role of uncertainty in yield function and land supply elasticity parameters on land use, carbon, and market outcomes in a long-term dynamic model of the global forest sector. The results suggest that parametric uncertainty has little influence on projected future timber prices and global output, but it does have important implications for regional projections of outputs. A wide range of outcomes are possible for timber outputs, depending on growth and elasticity parameters. Timber output in the U.S., for instance, could change by -67 to +98 million m<sup>3</sup> per year by 2060. Despite uncertainty in the parameters, our analysis suggests that the temperate zone may sequester +30 to +79 Pg C by 2060 and +58 to +114 Pg C by 2090 while the tropics are projected to store -35 to +70 Pg C and -33 to +73 Pg C for the same time periods, respectively. Attributional analysis shows that uncertainty in the parameters regulating forest growth has a more important impact on projections of future carbon storage than uncertainty in the land supply elasticity parameters. Moreover, the results suggest that understanding growth parameters in regions with large current carbon stocks is most important for making future projections of carbon storage.</p>","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":"34 ","pages":"129-158"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2019-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1561/112.00000445","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"37982807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This special issue provides a broad range of potential methodologies, based in economics, for projecting forest carbon stocks. Papers included highlight new analyses from various economists that have projected carbon fluxes nationally and globally. Through carefully designed research, these authors have provided deep insights into methods that can be applied broadly.
{"title":"State of the Art Methods to Project\u0000Forest Carbon Stocks","authors":"B. Sohngen, G. Latta, N. Forsell, J. Baker","doi":"10.1561/112.00000440","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1561/112.00000440","url":null,"abstract":"This special issue provides a broad range of potential methodologies, based in economics, for projecting forest carbon stocks. Papers included highlight new analyses from various economists that have projected carbon fluxes nationally and globally. Through carefully designed research, these authors have provided deep insights into methods that can be applied broadly.","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2019-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1561/112.00000440","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46405164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Daigneault, C. Johnston, A. Korosuo, J. Baker, N. Forsell, J. Prestemon, R. Abt
This paper presents a series of narratives that can be used to define possible future trends in the global forest sector across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which we refer to as Forest Sector Pathways (FSPs). SSPs are part of a new scenario framework established by the climate change research community that facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic pathways, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. However, the literature on sector-specific narratives outside of the energy and industrial sectors is currently limited, and this paper seeks to build upon existing SSP storylines by elaborating on the potential implications of SSP-related variables on forest resource management, forest product markets, wood-based bioenergy expansion, and other relevant trends in global forestry. The global forestry pathway narratives presented in this paper build on alternative futures research and multi-model inter-comparisons by further developing recent narratives with additional detail on specific issues related to the development and use of our world’s forests.
{"title":"Developing Detailed Shared\u0000Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)\u0000Narratives for the Global Forest Sector","authors":"A. Daigneault, C. Johnston, A. Korosuo, J. Baker, N. Forsell, J. Prestemon, R. Abt","doi":"10.1561/112.00000441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1561/112.00000441","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a series of narratives that can be used to define possible future trends in the global forest sector across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which we refer to as Forest Sector Pathways (FSPs). SSPs are part of a new scenario framework established by the climate change research community that facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic pathways, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. However, the literature on sector-specific narratives outside of the energy and industrial sectors is currently limited, and this paper seeks to build upon existing SSP storylines by elaborating on the potential implications of SSP-related variables on forest resource management, forest product markets, wood-based bioenergy expansion, and other relevant trends in global forestry. The global forestry pathway narratives presented in this paper build on alternative futures research and multi-model inter-comparisons by further developing recent narratives with additional detail on specific issues related to the development and use of our world’s forests.","PeriodicalId":54831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forest Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2019-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1561/112.00000441","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44753319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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