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DYNAMIC INTERACTIONS BETWEEN PREY AND PREDATOR WITH COOPERATION AND ALLEE EFFECT: DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC APPROACH 具有合作和狭缝效应的捕食者与猎物之间的动态相互作用:确定性和随机方法
IF 1.6 4区 数学 Q3 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-10-26 DOI: 10.1142/s0218339022500292
Biswajit Paul, Bapin Mondal, J. Ghosh, U. Ghosh
In this paper, we investigate the behavior of a predator–prey model with cooperation and Allee effect considering both deterministic and stochastic approaches. The main aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of environmental fluctuation in a deterministic predator–prey model. During the analysis of the deterministic model, it is shown that the system has saddle-node point of co-dimension 1, Hopf bifurcation and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation of co-dimension 2. To study the effect of environmental fluctuation, we use perturbation to the birth rate of prey and death rate of predator density by Gaussian white noise. The persistence of the model and the stationary distribution is shown by forming a suitable Lyapunov function. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to validate the theoretical findings.
在本文中,我们研究了具有合作和Allee效应的捕食者-猎物模型的行为,同时考虑了确定性和随机性方法。本文的主要目的是研究确定性捕食者-猎物模型中环境波动的影响。在对确定性模型的分析中,发现系统具有同维1的鞍节点、同维2的Hopf分岔和Bogdanov–Takens分岔。为了研究环境波动的影响,我们使用高斯白噪声对猎物出生率和捕食者密度死亡率的扰动。通过形成合适的李雅普诺夫函数,表明了模型和平稳分布的持久性。最后,通过数值模拟验证了理论结果。
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引用次数: 3
AN AGE-STRUCTURED MODEL FOR PERTUSSIS TRANSMISSION WITH MULTIPLE INFECTIONS STUDYING THE EFFECTS OF CHILDHOOD DTAP AND ADOLESCENT TDAP VACCINES 百日咳多重感染传播的年龄结构模型儿童DTAP和青少年TDAP疫苗效果的研究
IF 1.6 4区 数学 Q3 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-10-21 DOI: 10.1142/s0218339022500280
Qing Han
An age-structured deterministic model with multiple infections that accounts for decaying maternal antibody, waning infection-acquired and vaccine-induced immunity is formulated to study the transmission dynamics of pertussis and the effect of childhood DTaP and adolescent Tdap vaccines. The expression of the reproduction number [Formula: see text] is derived for the ODE model in the case of proportionate mixing. Estimated age-dependent transmission probability and empirical contact data are used in the simulation of the ODE model from which the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is estimated to be around 15. The combination of DTaP and Tdap vaccines fails to bring [Formula: see text] under one and thus pertussis remains endemic despite sustained high coverage of vaccination. While both DTaP and Tdap vaccines have remarkable effect on reducing the incidences of the age groups being directly vaccinated, the adolescent booster dose Tdap is also found to provide some indirect protection for infants though very limited ([Formula: see text] incidence reduction).
为了研究百日咳的传播动力学以及儿童DTaP和青少年Tdap疫苗的效果,建立了一个具有多重感染的年龄结构确定性模型,该模型解释了母体抗体衰减、获得性感染减弱和疫苗诱导的免疫力。再现数的表达式[公式:见正文]是在比例混合的情况下为ODE模型推导的。在ODE模型的模拟中使用了估计的与年龄相关的传输概率和经验接触数据,根据该模型,基本繁殖数[公式:见正文]估计约为15。DTaP和Tdap疫苗的组合未能将[公式:见正文]纳入其中,因此尽管疫苗接种覆盖率持续较高,百日咳仍然是地方病。虽然DTaP和Tdap疫苗都能显著降低直接接种年龄组的发病率,但青少年加强剂量Tdap也能为婴儿提供一些间接保护,尽管非常有限([公式:见正文]发病率降低)。
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引用次数: 1
OPTIMAL CONTROL ANALYSIS OF A TUBERCULOSIS MODEL 结核模型的最优控制分析
IF 1.6 4区 数学 Q3 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-10-21 DOI: 10.1142/s0218339022500309
L. L. Obsu
In this paper, an optimal control theory was applied to the tuberculosis (TB) model governed by system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The aim is to investigate the impact of treatment failure on the TB epidemic. An optimal control strategy is proposed to minimize the disease effect and cost incurred due to treatment failure. The existence and uniqueness of optimal controls are proved. The characterization of optimal paths is analytically derived using Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle. The control-induced model is then fitted using TB infected cases reported from the year 2010–2019 in East Shewa zone Oromia regional state, Ethiopia. Different simulation cases were performed to compare with analytical results. The simulation results show that the combined effect of awareness via various mass media and continuous supervision during the treatment period helps to reduce treatment failure and hence reduced the TB epidemic in the community.
本文将最优控制理论应用于由非线性常微分方程组控制的结核模型。目的是调查治疗失败对结核病流行的影响。提出了一种最优控制策略,使治疗失败造成的疾病效果和费用最小化。证明了最优控制的存在唯一性。利用庞特里亚金最小值原理解析导出了最优路径的特征。然后使用埃塞俄比亚奥罗米亚州东谢瓦区2010-2019年报告的结核病感染病例拟合控制诱导模型。通过不同的仿真实例与分析结果进行比较。模拟结果表明,通过各种大众媒介的宣传和治疗期间的持续监督的综合作用有助于减少治疗失败,从而减少社区中的结核病流行。
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引用次数: 2
DYNAMICS OF AN SIRS EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH PERIODIC INFECTION RATE ON A SCALE-FREE NETWORK 无标度网络上具有周期感染率的SIRS流行病模型的动力学
IF 1.6 4区 数学 Q3 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-08-31 DOI: 10.1142/s0218339022500243
Hongquan Sun, Hong Li, Zhangsheng Zhu
Influenced by seasonal changes, the infection rate of many infectious diseases fluctuates in cycles. In this paper, we propose and investigate an SIRS model on a scale-free network. To model seasonality, we assume that the infection rate is periodic. The existence and positivity of solutions of the proposed model are proved and the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is defined. The global stability of steady states is determined by rigorous mathematical analysis. When [Formula: see text], the disease-free equilibrium [Formula: see text] is globally asymptotically stable. When [Formula: see text], the system has a unique positive periodic solution [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text] is globally asymptotically stable. Numerical simulations are performed to support our theoretic results, and the effects of various parameters on the amplitude and mean of infected individuals are studied. The sensitivity of parameters of the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is solved by the Sobol global sensitivity analysis method, and the results show that the effects of the parameters [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] on [Formula: see text] are remarkable.
受季节变化的影响,许多传染病的感染率呈周期性波动。本文提出并研究了一个无标度网络上的SIRS模型。为了模拟季节性,我们假设感染率是周期性的。证明了模型解的存在性和正性,定义了基本再现数[公式:见文]。通过严格的数学分析,确定了稳态的全局稳定性。当[公式:见文]时,无病平衡[公式:见文]是全局渐近稳定的。当[公式:见文]时,系统具有唯一的正周期解[公式:见文],且[公式:见文]是全局渐近稳定的。数值模拟支持了理论结果,并研究了各参数对感染个体振幅和平均值的影响。采用Sobol全局灵敏度分析法求解基本再现数[公式:见文]参数的灵敏度,结果表明[公式:见文]和[公式:见文]参数对[公式:见文]的影响是显著的。
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引用次数: 0
STABILITY ANALYSIS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL OF A LYME DISEASE MODEL WITH INSECTICIDES SPRAYING AND VACCINATION 一种莱姆病模型的稳定性分析及最优控制
IF 1.6 4区 数学 Q3 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-08-31 DOI: 10.1142/s021833902250022x
Bei Sun, K. Okosun, Xue Zhang
This paper studies an SIS-type Lyme transmission model incorporating insecticides spraying and vaccination as interventions. We obtain the positivity and boundedness of solutions, calculate the basic reproduction number, and discuss the global stability of disease-free and endemic equilibria when the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], respectively. We apply Pontryagin’s maximum principle to explore an optimal control strategy to minimize the number of infected ticks and hosts and the cost of using insecticides and vaccination. We design numerical simulations to illustrate the effectiveness of theoretical analysis.
本文研究了一种SIS型莱姆病传播模型,该模型将杀虫剂喷洒和疫苗接种作为干预措施。我们得到了解的正性和有界性,计算了基本繁殖数,并分别讨论了当基本繁殖数[公式:见正文]和[公式:看正文]时无病和地方病平衡的全局稳定性。我们应用Pontryagin的最大值原理来探索一种最佳控制策略,以最大限度地减少感染蜱虫和宿主的数量以及使用杀虫剂和接种疫苗的成本。我们设计了数值模拟来说明理论分析的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
EFFECTS OF VACCINATION ON THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF COVID-19 IN DOUGHERTY COUNTY OF GEORGIA, USA 疫苗接种对美国乔治亚州多尔蒂县COVID-19传播动态的影响
IF 1.6 4区 数学 Q3 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-08-13 DOI: 10.1142/s021833902250019x
Buddhi Pantha, Jemal Mohammed-Awel, N. Vaidya
Despite the significant progress in the development of vaccines, the COVID-19 pandemic still poses difficulty for its control because of many obstacles such as the proper implementation of vaccination, public hesitancy towards vaccines, dropping out from the second dose, and varying level of protection after the first and the second doses. In this study, we develop a novel mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission, including two separate vaccinated compartments (first dose and both doses). We parametrize and validate our model using data from Dougherty county of Georgia, USA, one of the most affected counties, where the transmission trend clearly is associated with various policies and public events. We analyze our model for stability of equilibria and persistence of the disease, and formulate expression for reproduction numbers. We estimate that the basic reproduction number in Dougherty county is 1.69, and the effective reproduction number during the study period ranges from 0.26 to 6.36. The number of daily undiagnosed cases peaked at 310 per day, resulting in the maximum number of active infectious individuals to be 2471. Our model predicts that in a high transmission scenario, the vaccination strategies should be combined with other non-pharmaceutical prevention strategies to ensure transmission control. Moreover, our results emphasize that completing both doses of vaccines on time is critical to achieve maximum benefits from the vaccination programs.
尽管疫苗开发取得了重大进展,但由于疫苗接种的正确实施、公众对疫苗的犹豫、退出第二剂接种以及第一剂和第二剂接种后保护水平不一等诸多障碍,COVID-19大流行仍给控制带来困难。在这项研究中,我们建立了一种新的COVID-19传播数学模型,包括两个单独的疫苗接种隔间(第一剂和两剂)。我们使用来自美国乔治亚州Dougherty县的数据对模型进行参数化和验证,该县是受影响最严重的县之一,其传播趋势显然与各种政策和公共事件有关。我们分析了该模型的平衡稳定性和疾病的持久性,并给出了繁殖数的表达式。我们估计道格蒂县的基本繁殖数为1.69,研究期间的有效繁殖数为0.26 ~ 6.36。每日未确诊病例数达到310例的高峰,导致活跃感染个体的最大人数为2471人。我们的模型预测,在高传播情况下,疫苗接种策略应与其他非药物预防策略相结合,以确保传播控制。此外,我们的研究结果强调,按时完成两剂疫苗接种对于实现疫苗接种计划的最大效益至关重要。
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引用次数: 1
MODEL FOR TRANSMISSION AND OPTIMAL CONTROL OF ANTHRAX INVOLVING HUMAN AND ANIMAL POPULATION 人畜炭疽病的传播与最优控制模型
IF 1.6 4区 数学 Q3 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-07-30 DOI: 10.1142/s0218339022500218
A. Zewdie, S. Gakkhar, Shivmurti K Gupta
Anthrax is a disease caused by Bacillus anthracis, commonly affects animals as well as humans health. In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic anthrax model involving human and animal is proposed and analyzed. The reproduction number [Formula: see text] and equilibrium points are explored to study the dynamic behavior of the disease. The existence and stability of equilibrium points are discussed. For [Formula: see text], the disease-free equilibrium [Formula: see text] is globally stable. However, it is unstable when [Formula: see text] and a locally stable endemic equilibrium point [Formula: see text] exists. The model is then extended to optimal control model considering human vaccination, animal vaccination and proper removal of carcass. The vaccination class of human and animal population appears separately in a model. The existence and characterization of optimal control are discussed. The numerical simulations are carried out for the choice of parametric values and initial conditions. These illustrate scavengers in the suspected area which eat infected dead body of animals contributing to the effort of reducing the expansion of disease. In addition, numerical comparison analysis with four distinct control strategies is carried out. Our findings show that each control technique has its own influence on reducing the total number of infections in the human and animal populations. The cumulative impact of all control measures is found to be extremely effective in lowering the prevalence of the disease.
炭疽病是由炭疽杆菌引起的一种疾病,通常影响动物和人类的健康。本文提出并分析了一个包含人和动物的非线性确定性炭疽模型。对繁殖数[公式:见正文]和平衡点进行了探索,以研究疾病的动态行为。讨论了平衡点的存在性和稳定性。对于[公式:见正文],无病平衡[公式:看正文]是全局稳定的。然而,当[公式:见正文]和局部稳定的地方病平衡点[公式:看正文]存在时,它是不稳定的。然后将该模型推广到考虑人类接种、动物接种和适当胴体去除的最优控制模型。人类和动物群体的疫苗接种类别分别出现在模型中。讨论了最优控制的存在性及其特征。对参数值和初始条件的选择进行了数值模拟。这些说明了疑似地区的拾荒者以受感染的动物尸体为食,有助于减少疾病的传播。此外,还对四种不同控制策略进行了数值比较分析。我们的研究结果表明,每种控制技术对减少人类和动物种群的感染总数都有自己的影响。所有控制措施的累积影响被发现在降低疾病流行率方面非常有效。
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引用次数: 0
DYNAMICS OF A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR INTERACTION PLANT–PARASITE–TRICHODERMA 植物-寄生虫-木霉相互作用的数学模型动力学
IF 1.6 4区 数学 Q3 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-06-25 DOI: 10.1142/s0218339022500206
M. F. Jiménez, G. Blé, M. Falconi
In this work, the impact of a biological agent (Trichoderma spp.) on the dynamic of a plant–parasite model is analyzed. It is assumed that the plant–Trichoderma spp. relationship is mutualistic, the Trichoderma spp.–parasite relationship is that of predator–prey, and the parasite is specialist. Conditions for pest eradication and for species coexistence are shown.
本文分析了一种生物制剂(木霉)对植物-寄生虫模型动力学的影响。假设植物与木霉的关系是互惠互利的,木霉与寄生虫的关系是捕食者与被捕食者的关系,而寄生虫是专门性的。说明了消灭害虫和物种共存的条件。
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引用次数: 0
MODELING THE ROLE OF VACCINATION, ENVIRONMENTAL SANITATION, AND SATURATED TREATMENT ON THE SPREAD OF TYPHOID FEVER 模拟疫苗接种、环境卫生和饱和处理对伤寒传播的作用
IF 1.6 4区 数学 Q3 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-05-12 DOI: 10.1142/s0218339022500164
Tsegaye Kebede Irena, S. Gakkhar
A deterministic nonlinear mathematical model is developed for typhoid transmission dynamics in human hosts, coupled with multiple transmission routes. The model aims to examine the role of control interventions such as vaccination, environmental sanitation, and saturated treatment on the prevalence of typhoid. First, the qualitative analysis of the model with constant control interventions is performed. The model exhibits a backward bifurcation phenomenon. Sensitivity analysis is also conducted to identify impactful parameters for effective control of the disease. Then, the model is extended to a corresponding optimal control problem to investigate the optimum intervention strategies by assessing their effects on typhoid prevalence and economic load. The characterization of the optimal controls is determined using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, and the optimality system is developed. Numerical results suggest that, in the absence of treatment, the combination of vaccination and environmental sanitation controls plays an important role in reducing the typhoid burden and economic load. Moreover, the comprehensive use of the three control interventions is more effective than using any single or two combined control interventions. It reduces the number of infective humans and environmental bacteria as well as the cost burden associated with applied controls and opportunity loss. Thus, the comprehensive effect of the three control interventions is found to be more economical during typhoid outbreaks.
针对伤寒在人类宿主中的传播动力学,建立了一个确定性非线性数学模型,并结合多种传播途径。该模型旨在检验疫苗接种、环境卫生和饱和治疗等控制干预措施对伤寒流行率的作用。首先,对具有恒定控制干预的模型进行了定性分析。该模型呈现出后向分叉现象。还进行了敏感性分析,以确定有效控制疾病的有效参数。然后,将模型扩展到相应的最优控制问题,通过评估其对伤寒流行率和经济负荷的影响来研究最优干预策略。利用庞特里亚金最大值原理确定了最优控制的特征,并建立了最优性系统。数值结果表明,在没有治疗的情况下,疫苗接种和环境卫生控制的结合在减轻伤寒负担和经济负担方面发挥着重要作用。此外,综合使用三种控制干预措施比使用任何单一或两种联合控制干预措施更有效。它减少了感染人类和环境细菌的数量,以及与应用控制和机会损失相关的成本负担。因此,在伤寒爆发期间,三种控制干预措施的综合效果更为经济。
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引用次数: 0
MATHEMATICAL INSIGHTS INTO THE DYNAMICS OF INNATE IMMUNE RESPONSE DURING INFLAMMATION 对炎症期间先天免疫反应动力学的数学见解
IF 1.6 4区 数学 Q3 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-05-12 DOI: 10.1142/s0218339022500139
I. Trejo, Mehtap Lafci Büyükkahraman, H. Kojouharov
Innate immune system cells activate in response to infection and trigger an acute inflammatory reaction to restore tissue homeostasis and promote subsequent tissue repair. Their activation and functions must be very well regulated to avoid tissue damage, organ dysfunction, or even death. In this work, a new set of mathematical models is presented to examine the dynamics of the innate immune system response to tissue damage and provide further understanding of the role of the innate immune system during the early stages of an inflammatory response. Different damaged cells production functions are proposed to represent the effect of secondary tissue damage by the innate immune system. The stability and bifurcation analyses of the model reveal that there is an important threshold parameter that can be controlled in order to avoid sustained chronic inflammation and secure a successful healing outcome. A set of numerical simulations is also performed to support the presented theoretical results and demonstrate the medical applicability of the new mathematical model.
先天免疫系统细胞在感染时激活并触发急性炎症反应,以恢复组织稳态并促进随后的组织修复。它们的激活和功能必须得到很好的调节,以避免组织损伤,器官功能障碍,甚至死亡。在这项工作中,提出了一套新的数学模型来检查先天免疫系统对组织损伤的反应动力学,并进一步了解先天免疫系统在炎症反应早期阶段的作用。不同的受损细胞产生功能被提出来代表先天免疫系统对继发性组织损伤的影响。模型的稳定性和分岔分析表明,为了避免持续的慢性炎症和确保成功的愈合结果,可以控制一个重要的阈值参数。通过一组数值模拟来支持所提出的理论结果,并证明了新数学模型在医学上的适用性。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Biological Systems
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