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The characteristics of ‘abrupt wave front’ floods on Pennine catchments, northern England, and their transmission downstream 英格兰北部彭宁集水区“突变波前”洪水的特征及其下游传播
IF 2.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-13 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.126
Sam Watkiss, D. Archer
Visible flood waves, described as abrupt wave front events (AWF), have been identified on rivers in northern England rising in the Pennines, from both historical and recent gauged data. The focus of this paper is on the characteristics of two gauged AWF events on the Rivers Wear and Tees in 1983 and their comparison to ‘normal’ floods. The description and analysis is based on contemporaneous photographs and observations and on digital level and flow records. The rapid 15-min rise in these events is compared with the maximum rate of rise in annual maximum peak floods by comparing flood hydrographs. The propagation of the flood wave downstream is illustrated. The 15-min increase in discharge is compared in relation to the peak flow for AWF and normal floods at different gauged locations down the catchments showing striking differences. The character of the AWF response in the vertical or near-vertical wave front and rapid increase in both level and discharge points to the occurrence of kinematic shock waves.
根据历史和最近的测量数据,在英格兰北部彭宁山脉的河流上发现了可见的洪水波,被称为突发波前事件(AWF)。本文的重点是1983年Wear河和Tees河上两次AWF测量事件的特征及其与“正常”洪水的比较。描述和分析基于同期照片和观测以及数字水平和流量记录。通过比较洪水过程线,将这些事件中15分钟的快速上升与年最大洪峰洪水的最大上升率进行比较。图示了洪水波在下游的传播。15分钟的流量增加与AWF的峰值流量和集水区下游不同测量位置的正常洪水进行了比较,显示出显著差异。AWF在垂直或近垂直波前中的响应特征,以及水平点和泄流点对运动冲击波发生的快速增加。
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引用次数: 0
CERCA (Cascading Effects in Risk Consequences Assessment): an operational tool for geo-hydrological scenario risk assessment and cascading effects evaluation CERCA(风险后果评估中的级联效应):用于地质水文情景风险评估和级联效应评估的操作工具
IF 2.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-04 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.088
D. Biondi, Graziella Emanuela Scarcella, P. Versace
Building multiple, complex risk scenarios is a priority for the improvement of the effectiveness of early warning systems and technical countermeasure designs to detect phenomena associated with severe weather events, such as floods and landslides. This study presents CERCA (Cascading Effects in Risk Consequences Assessment), a methodology for the characterisation of event scenarios that is consistent with the current Italian Civil Protection Guidelines on the national warning system for weather-related geo-hydrological and hydraulic risks. The aim is to propose a simple, effective, multi-scale operational tool that can be adapted to multiple purposes. CERCA is structured as a tool for a typical ‘scenario analysis’ in a multi-hazard context through the qualitative assessment of cascading effects and consequences for different categories of elements at risk, particularly in terms of human losses. The framework is assessed on a case study concerning a local event in Rossano (Calabria, Italy) and on a number of damaging events that occurred in Italy during the period 2004–2021. The proposed approach can be effective in processing post-disaster information, monitoring the real-time evolution of critical situations, creating priority lists for decision-making, and providing general dependency matrices to be used for ‘ex-ante’ definitions of scenarios.
建立多种复杂的风险情景是提高预警系统和技术对策设计的有效性的优先事项,以检测与洪水和山体滑坡等恶劣天气事件相关的现象。本研究介绍了CERCA(风险后果评估中的级联效应),这是一种描述事件情景的方法,符合当前意大利关于天气相关地质水文和水力风险国家预警系统的民事保护指南。其目的是提出一种简单、有效、多尺度的操作工具,可用于多种目的。CERCA的结构是作为一种工具,通过对不同类别风险要素的级联效应和后果进行定性评估,特别是在人员损失方面,在多危险背景下进行典型的“情景分析”。该框架是根据一项关于罗萨诺(意大利卡拉布里亚)当地事件的案例研究和2004年至2021年期间意大利发生的一些破坏性事件进行评估的。所提出的方法可以有效地处理灾后信息,监测关键情况的实时演变,创建决策优先顺序列表,并提供用于情景“事前”定义的通用依赖矩阵。
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引用次数: 1
Pre- and postprocessing flood forecasts using Bayesian model averaging 使用贝叶斯模型平均进行洪水预报的前处理和后处理
IF 2.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-04 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.024
T. J. Hegdahl, K. Engeland, I. Steinsland, A. Singleton
In this study, pre- and postprocessing of hydrological ensemble forecasts are evaluated with a special focus on floods for 119 Norwegian catchments. Two years of ECMWF ensemble forecasts of temperature and precipitation with a lead time of up to 9 days were used to force the operational hydrological HBV model to establish streamflow forecasts. A Bayesian model averaging processing approach was applied to preprocess temperature and precipitation forecasts and to postprocessing streamflow forecasts. Ensemble streamflow forecasts were generated for eight schemes based on combinations of raw, preprocessed, and postprocessed forecasts. Two datasets were used to evaluate the forecasts: (i) all streamflow forecasts and (ii) forecasts for flood events with streamflow above mean annual flood. Evaluations based on all streamflow data showed that postprocessing improved the forecasts only up to a lead time of 2–3 days, whereas preprocessing temperature and precipitation improved the forecasts for 50–90% of the catchments beyond 3 days lead time. We found large differences in the ability to issue warnings between spring and autumn floods. Spring floods had predictability for up to 9 days for many events and catchments, whereas the ability to predict autumn floods beyond 3 days was marginal.
在这项研究中,对水文综合预报的前处理和后处理进行了评估,特别关注119个挪威集水区的洪水。两年的ECMWF温度和降水综合预报,提前时间长达9天,用于强制运行的水文HBV模型建立径流预报。将贝叶斯模型平均处理方法应用于温度和降水预报的预处理和径流预报的后处理。基于原始、预处理和后处理预测的组合,为八个方案生成了综合流量预测。使用两个数据集来评估预测:(i)所有流量预测和(ii)流量高于年平均洪水的洪水事件预测。基于所有流量数据的评估表明,后处理仅在2–3天的交付周期内改善了预测,而预处理温度和降水量在3天交付周期后改善了50–90%集水区的预测。我们发现,春季和秋季洪水的预警能力存在很大差异。对于许多事件和集水区,春季洪水的可预测性长达9天,而预测3天以上秋季洪水的能力微乎其微。
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引用次数: 2
Corrigendum: Hydrology Research (2022) 53 (12): 1510–1528: Improvement of springtime streamflow prediction using a snow hydrology model aided with USDA SNOTEL and in-situ snowpit observations, DoHyuk Kang, Kyungtae Lee, Edward Kim 更正:水文研究(2022)53(12):1510–1528:利用美国农业部SNOTEL和现场雪坑观测辅助的雪水文模型改进春季径流预测,DoHyuk Kang,Kyungtae Lee,Edward Kim
IF 2.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-03 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.001
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引用次数: 0
Comparative analysis and risk assessment of dam-break floods: taking Pingshuijiang Reservoir as an example 溃坝洪水的比较分析与风险评价——以平水江水库为例
IF 2.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-02 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.129
Xun Jiang, J. Meng, Bingjie Fan, Chongxu Zhao, Yanshuang Zheng, Qianlu Xiao, Chunjin Zhang, Dongfang Ma
Due to the huge potential energy associated with water storage in reservoirs, dam-break floods are often catastrophically destructive for people and structures downstream. This study aims to simulate and compare floods generated under various dam-break scenarios and their downstream impacts, taking Pingshuijiang Reservoir in southeastern China as an example. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model is used to simulate the downstream evolution of floods under three dam-break scenarios, and the breach flood and downstream inundation process are analyzed. Gradual failure of the main dam leads to near-total inundation of the nearby town over c. 1 h, allowing time for warning and evacuation. Instantaneous failure of the main dam results in larger peak flow, greater submergence depth and faster inundation (20 min), leaving little time for warning/evacuation. Instantaneous failure of the auxiliary dam generates a much lower peak flow magnitude and, although the town is still largely submerged within 45 min, the shallow water depth and low velocity are conducive to rescue/evacuation. The results show significant variation in flood process and submergence due to dam size and failure mode that provide guidance for dam-break flood risk assessment and disaster avoidance planning.
由于水库蓄水具有巨大的势能,溃坝洪水通常对下游的人员和结构具有灾难性的破坏性。本研究旨在以中国东南部的平水江水库为例,模拟和比较不同溃坝情景下的洪水及其对下游的影响。采用二维水动力学模型模拟了三种溃坝情景下洪水的下游演变,分析了溃坝洪水和下游淹没过程。主坝的逐渐失效导致附近城镇在约1小时内几乎完全淹没,从而有时间进行警告和疏散。主坝的瞬时失效导致更大的洪峰流量、更大的淹没深度和更快的淹没(20分钟),几乎没有时间进行警告/疏散。副坝的瞬时失效产生了低得多的峰值流量,尽管该镇在45分钟内仍大部分被淹没,但浅水深度和低流速有利于救援/疏散。研究结果表明,由于大坝尺寸和破坏模式的不同,洪水过程和淹没程度有显著变化,这为溃坝洪水风险评估和防灾规划提供了指导。
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引用次数: 0
Response characteristics of soil moisture to rainfall for a single grass type in an urban area 城市地区单一草型土壤水分对降雨的响应特征
IF 2.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.095
Jinbai Huang, Jiawei Wen, Diwen Luo, Chaofan Zhu
Urbanization significantly impacts hydrological processes and the water environment in the urban area. Research works on soil moisture are necessary to explore the hydrological characteristics under the background of urbanization. A regional grassland with Bermudagrass in Yangzhou City, China, was adopted as the study area. An analysis of its response characteristics to rainfall infiltration was carried out for different rainfall events. The Penman–Monteith equation was used to estimate the hourly evapotranspiration (ET) of the soil layers at depths of 0–30 cm and 0–10 cm. The results indicate that the response time of the soil water content in the root layer (0–10 cm) decreases with the decrease of the soil water content in the topsoil. The rate of the increase of the soil water content increases as the rainfall intensity increases in the state of unsaturation. The soil water in the root layer provided more than 70% of the total ET. The Nash efficiency coefficient of the simulation results of the soil water content at different depths obtained using the Hydrus-1D model was more than 0.75. The rationality of the results for the different rainfall events and the infiltration depth were verified via numerical simulations using the Hydrus-1D model.
城市化对城市地区的水文过程和水环境产生了重大影响。对土壤水分的研究是探索城市化背景下的水文特征所必需的。采用中国扬州市的一个区域性百慕大草地作为研究区域。分析了不同降雨事件下其对降雨入渗的响应特征。利用Penman–Monteith方程估算了0–30cm和0–10cm土层的每小时蒸散量。结果表明,根层(0–10cm)土壤水分的响应时间随着表层土壤水分的减少而减少。在不饱和状态下,土壤含水量的增加率随着降雨强度的增加而增加。根层土壤水分提供了总ET的70%以上。使用Hydrus-1D模型获得的不同深度土壤水分模拟结果的纳什效率系数大于0.75。通过使用Hydrus-1D模型的数值模拟,验证了不同降雨事件和渗透深度的结果的合理性。
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引用次数: 0
Determination of Clark unit hydrograph parameters for estimating probable maximum flood 估算可能最大洪水的克拉克单位过程线参数的确定
IF 2.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-01-21 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.120
Jinwook Lee, C. Yoo
The probable maximum flood (PMF) is the flood caused by the probable maximum precipitation (PMP). A unit hydrograph (UH) is generally used to derive the PMF for the given PMP, but a method is needed to modify the UH parameters to reflect the PMP condition. This study presents a new method using the estimated channel velocity to modify the Clark UH parameters under the ordinary condition into those under the PMP condition. This study considers major dam basins in Korea and evaluates the application results in comparison to several previous studies. As application results of the proposed method, the Clark UH parameters under the PMP condition are found to be within the range 39–53% of those under the ordinary condition, with their mean ofabout 44%. The UH derived by applying this mean ratio shows that its peak time and the peak flow are just 44 and 227% of the UH under the ordinary condition, respectively. This change from the ordinary condition to the PMP condition is more extreme in Korea than that in Australia and the United Kingdom. This extreme change seems to be due to the climate in Korea, located in the Asian Monsoon region.
可能最大洪水(PMF)是由可能最大降水引起的洪水。一般采用单位线(UH)来推导给定PMP的PMF,但需要一种修改UH参数以反映PMP条件的方法。本文提出了一种利用估计通道速度将普通条件下的Clark UH参数修改为PMP条件下的Clark UH参数的新方法。本研究考虑了韩国的主要水坝流域,并将应用结果与之前的一些研究进行了比较。作为该方法的应用结果,发现PMP条件下的Clark UH参数在普通条件下的39-53%范围内,其平均值约为44%。应用该平均比值求得的流量,其峰值时间和峰值流量分别仅为普通工况下流量的44%和227%。这种从普通状态到PMP状态的转变在韩国比在澳大利亚和英国更为极端。这种极端的变化可能与韩国的气候有关,因为韩国处于亚洲季风区。
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引用次数: 1
Extension and refinement of a stochastic modelling approach to assess ice-jam flood hazard 一种评估冰堵塞洪水灾害的随机建模方法的扩展和改进
IF 2.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-01-21 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.042
K. Lindenschmidt
In the spring of 2020, the town of Fort McMurray, which lies on the banks of the Athabasca River, experienced an ice-jam flood event that was the most severe in approximately 60 years. In order to capture the severity of the event, a stochastic modelling approach, previously developed by the author for ice-jam flood forecasting, has been refined for ice-jam flood hazard and risk assessments and ice-jam mitigation feasibility studies, which is the subject of this paper. Scenarios of artificial breakage demonstrate the applicability of the revised modelling framework.
2020年春天,位于阿萨巴斯卡河岸边的麦克默里堡镇经历了大约60年来最严重的冰堵塞洪水事件。为了捕捉事件的严重性,作者先前为冰塞洪水预报开发的随机建模方法已被改进,用于冰塞洪水危害和风险评估以及缓解冰塞的可行性研究,这是本文的主题。人工破坏的场景证明了修订后的建模框架的适用性。
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引用次数: 1
Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model parameters based on improved Morris method with the double-Latin hypercube sampling 基于改进Morris法的双拉丁超立方采样水文模型参数敏感性分析
IF 2.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-01-20 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.109
Delong Li, Q. Ju, Peng Jiang, Ping Huang, Xiaohua Xu, Qin Wang, Z. Hao, Yueguan Zhang
Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model parameters is a crucial step in the calibration process of hydrological simulation. In this paper, the improved Morris method with the double-Latin hypercube sampling is proposed for global sensitivity analysis of 10 parameters of the Xin'anjiang model. In addition, the local sensitivity is analyzed based on the rate validation of the model parameters. In general, the results show those parameters about evaporation coefficient in the deep layer (C), free water storage capacity (SM), impervious area as a percentage of total watershed area (IMP), free water storage capacity curve index (EX), groundwater outflow coefficient (KG) and subsurface runoff abatement factor (KKG) are all less than 0.01, insensitive parameters; the parameters about evaporation conversion factor (K) and square times of the storage capacity curve(B) are in the range of [0.01, 0.1], less sensitive parameters; the parameter about flow out coefficient in soil (KSS) is in the range of [0.1, 0.2], a low-sensitivity parameter; the parameter abatement coefficient of mid-soil flow (KKSS) is greater than 1, a high-sensitivity parameter; the improved Morris method better reflects the existence of interactions between parameters. This research result provides a new technical approach for the sensitivity analysis of hydrological model parameters.
水文模型参数的灵敏度分析是水文模拟定标过程中的关键环节。本文针对新安江模型10个参数的全局灵敏度分析,提出了双拉丁超立方体采样的Morris改进方法。此外,基于模型参数的速率验证,对局部灵敏度进行了分析。结果表明,深层蒸发系数(C)、自由蓄水量(SM)、不透水面积占流域总面积的百分比(IMP)、自由储水量曲线指数(EX)、地下水流出系数(KG)和地表径流消减因子(KKG)等参数均小于0.01,是不敏感的参数;关于蒸发转换因子(K)和存储容量曲线(B)的平方倍的参数在[0.01,0.1]的范围内,是不太敏感的参数;土壤流出系数(KSS)参数在[0.1,0.2]范围内,是一个低灵敏度参数;中层土壤流参数消减系数大于1,为高灵敏度参数;改进的Morris方法更好地反映了参数之间相互作用的存在。该研究成果为水文模型参数的敏感性分析提供了一种新的技术途径。
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引用次数: 1
Baseflow index characterization in typical temperate to dry climates: conceptual analysis and simulation experiment to assess the relative role of climate forcing features and catchment geological settings 典型温带至干旱气候中的基流指数特征:概念分析和模拟实验,以评估气候强迫特征和集水区地质环境的相对作用
IF 2.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-01-20 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.026
A. Longobardi, P. Villani
Low-flow hydrological features are crucial for efficient development and integrated water resources management. Among others, the BaseFlow Index ‘BFI’ is one of the most important low-flow indices. Many studies have demonstrated that it is related to several topographic parameters, climate, vegetation and soil types and to catchment geology. With the aim to enhance the knowledge about the climate and catchment properties’ relative control on the ‘BFI’, an approach consisting of an empirical analysis, applied to a large area located in Southern Italy, characterized by a typical Mediterranean environment, is followed by a simulation experiment, considering climate settings, at the pan-European scale, typical of temperate to dry climate regimes. Main findings have revealed that (i) the correlation structure between the ‘BFI’ and the precipitation volume, at the annual scale, is affected by both climate variability and catchment properties; (ii) the ‘BFI’ variability is strongly conditioned by climate intra- and inter-annual variability; (iii) the major role is, however, assigned to the geological catchment features, with poorly and well-drained catchments behaving differently in response to similar climate forcing variability.
低流量水文特征对于高效开发和水资源综合管理至关重要。其中,基本流量指数“BFI”是最重要的低流量指数之一。许多研究表明,它与几个地形参数、气候、植被和土壤类型以及集水区地质有关。为了增强对气候和集水区特性对“BFI”的相对控制的了解,采用了一种由经验分析组成的方法,该方法适用于意大利南部的一个以典型地中海环境为特征的大面积地区,随后在泛欧范围内进行了模拟实验,考虑到气候环境,典型的温带到干燥气候。主要研究结果表明:(i)在年尺度上,“BFI”和降水量之间的相关性结构受到气候变化和集水区特性的影响;(ii)“BFI”变异性受到气候年内和年间变异性的强烈制约;(iii)然而,主要作用被分配给地质集水区特征,排水不良和排水良好的集水区在应对类似的气候变化时表现不同。
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引用次数: 2
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Hydrology Research
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