British Journal of Mathematical & Statistical Psychology最新文献

In many psychological studies, in particular those conducted by experience sampling, mental states are measured repeatedly for each participant. Such a design allows for regression models that separate between- from within-person, or trait-like from state-like, components of association between two variables. But these models are typically designed for continuous variables, whereas mental state variables are most often measured on an ordinal scale. In this paper we develop a model for disaggregating between- from within-person effects of one ordinal variable on another. As in standard ordinal regression, our model posits a continuous latent response whose value determines the observed response. We allow the latent response to depend nonlinearly on the trait and state variables, but impose a novel penalty that shrinks the fit towards a linear model on the latent scale. A simulation study shows that this penalization approach is effective at finding a middle ground between an overly restrictive linear model and an overfitted nonlinear model. The proposed method is illustrated with an application to data from the experience sampling study of Baumeister et al. (2020, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 46, 1631).

Psychometric methods for accurate and timely detection of item compromise have been a long-standing topic. While Bayesian methods can incorporate prior knowledge or expert inputs as additional information for item compromise detection, they have not been employed in item compromise detection itself. The current study proposes a two-phase Bayesian change-point framework for both stationary and real-time detection of changes in each item's compromise status. In Phase I, a stationary Bayesian change-point model for compromise detection is fitted to the observed responses over a specified time-frame. The model produces parameter estimates for the change-point of each item from uncompromised to compromised, as well as structural parameters accounting for the post-change response distribution. Using the post-change model identified in Phase I, the Shiryaev procedure for sequential testing is employed in Phase II for real-time monitoring of item compromise. The proposed methods are evaluated in terms of parameter recovery, detection accuracy, and detection efficiency under various simulation conditions and in a real data example. The proposed method also showed superior detection accuracy and efficiency compared to the cumulative sum procedure.

Organizational and validation researchers often work with data that has been subjected to selection on the predictor and attrition on the criterion. These researchers often use the data observed under these conditions to estimate either the predictor or criterion's restricted population means. We show that the restricted means due to direct or indirect selection are a function of the population means plus the selection ratios. Thus, any difference between selected mean groups reflects the population difference plus the selection ratio difference. When there is also attrition on the criterion, the estimation of group differences becomes even more complicated. The effect of selection and attrition induces measurement bias when estimating the restricted population mean of either the predictor or criterion. A sample mean observed under selection and attrition does not estimate either the population mean or the restricted population mean. We propose several procedures under normality that yield unbiased estimates of the mean. The procedures focus on correcting the effects of selection and attrition. Each procedure was evaluated with a Monte Carlo simulation to ascertain its strengths and weaknesses. Given appropriate sample size and conditions, we show that these procedures yield unbiased estimators of the restricted and unrestricted population means for both predictor and criterion. We also show how our findings have implications for replicating selected group differences.

Heller (2021) generalized quasi-ordinal knowledge spaces to polytomous items. Inspired by this paper, we propose CD-polytomous knowledge space and its polytomous surmise system. A Galois connection is established between the collection $��K�$ of all polytomous knowledge structures and the collection $��F_1�$ of particular polytomous attribute functions. The closed elements of the Galois connection are CD-polytomous knowledge spaces in $��K�$ and polytomous surmise functions in $��F_1�$, respectively. With the help of these, this paper provides a characterization of the polytomous knowledge structure corresponding to the polytomous surmise function that is weakly factorial. Based on the finite sets of items and response values, these results generalize the previous approaches for polytomous knowledge spaces.

Computerized classification testing (CCT) commonly chooses items maximizing information at the cut score, which yields the most information for decision-making. However, a corollary problem is that all examinees will be given the same set of items, resulting in high test overlap rate and unbalanced item bank usage, which threatens test security. Moreover, another pivotal issue for CCT is time control. Since both the extremely long response time (RT) and large RT variability across examinees intensify time-induced anxiety, it is crucial to reduce the number of examinees exceeding the time limitation and the differences between examinees' test-taking times. To satisfy these practical needs, this paper proposes the novel idea of stage adaptiveness to tailor the item selection process to the decision-making requirement in each step and generate fresh insight into the existing response time selection method. Results indicate that a balanced item usage as well as short and stable test times across examinees can be achieved via the new methods.

Problem-solving strategies, defined as actions people select intentionally to achieve desired objectives, are distinguished from skills that are implemented unintentionally. In education, strategy-oriented instructions that guide students to form problem-solving strategies are found to be more effective for low-achieving students than the skill-oriented instructions designed for enhancing their skill implementation ability. Although the existing longitudinal cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) can model the change in students' dynamic skill mastery status over time, they are not designed to model the shift in students' problem-solving strategies. This study proposes a longitudinal CDM that considers both between-person multiple strategies and within-person strategy shift. The model, separating the strategy choice process from the skill implementation process, is intended to provide diagnostic information on strategy choice as well as skill mastery status. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the parameter recovery of the proposed model and investigate the consequences of ignoring the presence of multiple strategies or strategy shift. Further, an empirical data analysis is conducted to illustrate the use of the proposed model to measure strategy shift, growth in skill implementation ability and skill mastery status.

Most item response theory (IRT) models for dichotomous responses are based on probit or logit link functions which assume a symmetric relationship between the probability of a correct response and the latent traits of individuals taking a test. This assumption restricts the use of those models to the case in which all items behave symmetrically. On the other hand, asymmetric models proposed in the literature impose that all the items in a test behave asymmetrically. This assumption is inappropriate for great majority of tests which are, in general, composed of both symmetric and asymmetric items. Furthermore, a straightforward extension of the existing models in the literature would require a prior selection of the items' symmetry/asymmetry status. This paper proposes a Bayesian IRT model that accounts for symmetric and asymmetric items in a flexible but parsimonious way. That is achieved by assigning a finite mixture prior to the skewness parameter, with one of the mixture components being a point mass at zero. This allows for analyses under both model selection and model averaging approaches. Asymmetric item curves are designed through the centred skew normal distribution, which has a particularly appealing parametrization in terms of parameter interpretation and computational efficiency. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed to perform Bayesian inference and its performance is investigated in some simulated examples. Finally, the proposed methodology is applied to a data set from a large-scale educational exam in Brazil.

Careless and insufficient effort responding (C/IER) on self-report measures results in responses that do not reflect the trait to be measured, thereby posing a major threat to the quality of survey data. Reliable approaches for detecting C/IER aid in increasing the validity of inferences being made from survey data. First, once detected, C/IER can be taken into account in data analysis. Second, approaches for detecting C/IER support a better understanding of its occurrence, which facilitates designing surveys that curb the prevalence of C/IER. Previous approaches for detecting C/IER are limited in that they identify C/IER at the aggregate respondent or scale level, thereby hindering investigations of item characteristics evoking C/IER. We propose an explanatory mixture item response theory model that supports identifying and modelling C/IER at the respondent-by-item level, can detect a wide array of C/IER patterns, and facilitates a deeper understanding of item characteristics associated with its occurrence. As the approach only requires raw response data, it is applicable to data from paper-and-pencil and online surveys. The model shows good parameter recovery and can well handle the simultaneous occurrence of multiple types of C/IER patterns in simulated data. The approach is illustrated on a publicly available Big Five inventory data set, where we found later item positions to be associated with higher C/IER probabilities. We gathered initial supporting validity evidence for the proposed approach by investigating agreement with multiple commonly employed indicators of C/IER.

Several psychometric tests and self-reports generate count data (e.g., divergent thinking tasks). The most prominent count data item response theory model, the Rasch Poisson Counts Model (RPCM), is limited in applicability by two restrictive assumptions: equal item discriminations and equidispersion (conditional mean equal to conditional variance). Violations of these assumptions lead to impaired reliability and standard error estimates. Previous work generalized the RPCM but maintained some limitations. The two-parameter Poisson counts model allows for varying discriminations but retains the equidispersion assumption. The Conway–Maxwell–Poisson Counts Model allows for modelling over- and underdispersion (conditional mean less than and greater than conditional variance, respectively) but still assumes constant discriminations. The present work introduces the Two-Parameter Conway–Maxwell–Poisson (2PCMP) model which generalizes these three models to allow for varying discriminations and dispersions within one model, helping to better accommodate data from count data tests and self-reports. A marginal maximum likelihood method based on the EM algorithm is derived. An implementation of the 2PCMP model in R and C++ is provided. Two simulation studies examine the model's statistical properties and compare the 2PCMP model to established models. Data from divergent thinking tasks are reanalysed with the 2PCMP model to illustrate the model's flexibility and ability to test assumptions of special cases.

A family of score-based tests has been proposed in recent years for assessing the invariance of model parameters in several models of item response theory (IRT). These tests were originally developed in a maximum likelihood framework. This study discusses analogous tests for Bayesian maximum-a-posteriori estimates and multiple-group IRT models. We propose two families of statistical tests, which are based on an approximation using a pooled variance method, or on a simulation approach based on asymptotic results. The resulting tests were evaluated by a simulation study, which investigated their sensitivity against differential item functioning with respect to a categorical or continuous person covariate in the two- and three-parametric logistic models. Whereas the method based on pooled variance was found to be useful in practice with maximum likelihood as well as maximum-a-posteriori estimates, the simulation-based approach was found to require large sample sizes to lead to satisfactory results.