British Journal of Mathematical & Statistical Psychology最新文献

Reliability is an essential measure of how closely observed scores represent latent scores (reflecting constructs), assuming some latent variable measurement model. We present a general theoretical framework of reliability, placing emphasis on measuring the association between latent and observed scores. This framework was inspired by McDonald's (Psychometrika, 76, 511) regression framework, which highlighted the coefficient of determination as a measure of reliability. We extend McDonald's (Psychometrika, 76, 511) framework beyond coefficients of determination and introduce four desiderata for reliability measures (estimability, normalization, symmetry, and invariance). We also present theoretical examples to illustrate distinct measures of reliability and report on a numerical study that demonstrates the behaviour of different reliability measures. We conclude with a discussion on the use of reliability coefficients and outline future avenues of research.

This paper discusses estimation and limited-information goodness-of-fit test statistics in factor models for binary data using pairwise likelihood estimation and sampling weights. The paper extends the applicability of pairwise likelihood estimation for factor models with binary data to accommodate complex sampling designs. Additionally, it introduces two key limited-information test statistics: the Pearson chi-squared test and the Wald test. To enhance computational efficiency, the paper introduces modifications to both test statistics. The performance of the estimation and the proposed test statistics under simple random sampling and unequal probability sampling is evaluated using simulated data.

Bayesian analysis relies heavily on the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to obtain random samples from posterior distributions. In this study, we compare the performance of MCMC stopping rules and provide a guideline for determining the termination point of the MCMC algorithm in latent variable models. In simulation studies, we examine the performance of four different MCMC stopping rules: potential scale reduction factor (PSRF), fixed-width stopping rule, Geweke's diagnostic, and effective sample size. Specifically, we evaluate these stopping rules in the context of the DINA model and the bifactor item response theory model, two commonly used latent variable models in educational and psychological measurement. Our simulation study findings suggest that single-chain approaches outperform multiple-chain approaches in terms of item parameter accuracy. However, when it comes to person parameter estimates, the effect of stopping rules diminishes. We caution against relying solely on the univariate PSRF, which is the most popular method, as it may terminate the algorithm prematurely and produce biased item parameter estimates if the cut-off value is not chosen carefully. Our research offers guidance to practitioners on choosing suitable stopping rules to improve the precision of the MCMC algorithm in models involving latent variables.

Normal ogive (NO) models have contributed substantially to the advancement of item response theory (IRT) and have become popular educational and psychological measurement models. However, estimating NO models remains computationally challenging. The purpose of this paper is to propose an efficient and reliable computational method for fitting NO models. Specifically, we introduce a novel and unified expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for estimating NO models, including two-parameter, three-parameter, and four-parameter NO models. A key improvement in our EM algorithm lies in augmenting the NO model to be a complete data model within the exponential family, thereby substantially streamlining the implementation of the EM iteration and avoiding the numerical optimization computation in the M-step. Additionally, we propose a two-step expectation procedure for implementing the E-step, which reduces the dimensionality of the integration and effectively enables numerical integration. Moreover, we develop a computing procedure for estimating the standard errors (SEs) of the estimated parameters. Simulation results demonstrate the superior performance of our algorithm in terms of its recovery accuracy, robustness, and computational efficiency. To further validate our methods, we apply them to real data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). The results affirm the reliability of the parameter estimates obtained using our method.

Over several years, the evaluation of polytomous attributes in small-sample settings has posed a challenge to the application of cognitive diagnosis models. To enhance classification precision, the support vector machine (SVM) was introduced for estimating polytomous attribution, given its proven feasibility for dichotomous cases. Two simulation studies and an empirical study assessed the impact of various factors on SVM classification performance, including training sample size, attribute structures, guessing/slipping levels, number of attributes, number of attribute levels, and number of items. The results indicated that SVM outperformed the pG-DINA model in classification accuracy under dependent attribute structures and small sample sizes. SVM performance improved with an increased number of items but declined with higher guessing/slipping levels, more attributes, and more attribute levels. Empirical data further validated the application and advantages of SVMs.

When evaluating the effect of psychological treatments on a dichotomous outcome variable in a randomized controlled trial (RCT), covariate adjustment using logistic regression models is often applied. In the presence of covariates, average marginal effects (AMEs) are often preferred over odds ratios, as AMEs yield a clearer substantive and causal interpretation. However, standard error computation of AMEs neglects sampling-based uncertainty (i.e., covariate values are assumed to be fixed over repeated sampling), which leads to underestimation of AME standard errors in other generalized linear models (e.g., Poisson regression). In this paper, we present and compare approaches allowing for stochastic (i.e., randomly sampled) covariates in models for binary outcomes. In a simulation study, we investigated the quality of the AME and stochastic-covariate approaches focusing on statistical inference in finite samples. Our results indicate that the fixed-covariate approach provides reliable results only if there is no heterogeneity in interindividual treatment effects (i.e., presence of treatment-covariate interactions), while the stochastic-covariate approaches are preferable in all other simulated conditions. We provide an illustrative example from clinical psychology investigating the effect of a cognitive bias modification training on post-traumatic stress disorder while accounting for patients' anxiety using an RCT.

The analysis of multiple bivariate correlations is often carried out by conducting simple tests to check whether each of them is significantly different from zero. In addition, pairwise differences are often judged by eye or by comparing the p-values of the individual tests of significance despite the existence of statistical tests for differences between correlations. This paper uses simulation methods to assess the accuracy (empirical Type I error rate), power, and robustness of 10 tests designed to check the significance of the difference between two dependent correlations with overlapping variables (i.e., the correlation between X₁ and Y and the correlation between X₂ and Y). Five of the tests turned out to be inadvisable because their empirical Type I error rates under normality differ greatly from the nominal alpha level of .05 either across the board or within certain sub-ranges of the parameter space. The remaining five tests were acceptable and their merits were similar in terms of all comparison criteria, although none of them was robust across all forms of non-normality explored in the study. Practical recommendations are given for the choice of a statistical test to compare dependent correlations with overlapping variables.

Exploratory cognitive diagnosis models have been widely used in psychology, education and other fields. This paper focuses on determining the number of attributes in a widely used cognitive diagnosis model, the GDINA model. Under some conditions of cognitive diagnosis models, we prove that there exists a special structure for the covariance matrix of observed data. Due to the special structure of the covariance matrix, an estimator based on eigen-decomposition is proposed for the number of attributes for the GDINA model. The performance of the proposed estimator is verified by simulation studies. Finally, the proposed estimator is applied to two real data sets Examination for the Certificate of Proficiency in English (ECPE) and Big Five Personality (BFP).

Computerized adaptive testing for cognitive diagnosis (CD-CAT) achieves remarkable estimation efficiency and accuracy by adaptively selecting and then administering items tailored to each examinee. The process of item selection stands as a pivotal component of a CD-CAT algorithm, with various methods having been developed for binary responses. However, multiple-choice (MC) items, an important item type that allows for the extraction of richer diagnostic information from incorrect answers, have been underemphasized. Currently, the Jensen-Shannon divergence (JSD) index introduced by Yigit et al. (Applied Psychological Measurement, 2019, 43, 388) is the only item selection method exclusively designed for MC items. However, the JSD index requires a large sample to calibrate item parameters, which may be infeasible when there is only a small or no calibration sample. To bridge this gap, the study first proposes a nonparametric item selection method for MC items (MC-NPS) by implementing novel discrimination power that measures an item's ability to effectively distinguish among different attribute profiles. A Q-optimal procedure for MC items is also developed to improve the classification during the initial phase of a CD-CAT algorithm. The effectiveness and efficiency of the two proposed algorithms were confirmed by simulation studies.

Oral reading fluency (ORF) assessments are commonly used to screen at-risk readers and evaluate interventions' effectiveness as curriculum-based measurements. Similar to the standard practice in item response theory (IRT), calibrated passage parameter estimates are currently used as if they were population values in model-based ORF scoring. However, calibration errors that are unaccounted for may bias ORF score estimates and, in particular, lead to underestimated standard errors (SEs) of ORF scores. Therefore, we consider an approach that incorporates the calibration errors in latent variable scores. We further derive the SEs of ORF scores based on the delta method to incorporate the calibration uncertainty. We conduct a simulation study to evaluate the recovery of point estimates and SEs of latent variable scores and ORF scores in various simulated conditions. Results suggest that ignoring calibration errors leads to underestimated latent variable score SEs and ORF score SEs, especially when the calibration sample is small.