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A case study of South Australia’s severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak 28 September 2016 2016年9月28日南澳大利亚严重雷暴和龙卷风爆发个案研究
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1071/es22006
Dragana Zovko-Rajak, K. Tory, J. Kepert
On September 28, 2016 one of the most significant thunderstorm outbreaks recorded in South Australia impacted central and eastern parts of the state. Multiple supercell thunderstorms were embedded in a Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS, Weisman & Trapp 2003) aligned with a strong cold front that was associated with an intense low-pressure system. The storms produced at least seven tornadoes, destructive wind gusts, large hail and intense rainfall. Transmission lines were brought down in four different locations, which contributed to a state-wide power outage.
2016年9月28日,南澳大利亚州有记录以来最严重的雷暴爆发之一影响了该州的中部和东部地区。多个超级单体雷暴嵌入准线性对流系统(QLCS, Weisman & Trapp 2003),该系统与强冷锋对齐,并伴有强低压系统。风暴产生了至少七个龙卷风,破坏性的阵风,大冰雹和强降雨。输电线路在四个不同的地方被切断,造成了全州范围的停电。
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引用次数: 0
Utilisation FINN data version 2.5 for forecasting PM2.5 during forest fire 2019 in Sumatra by using WRF–Chem 利用芬恩数据2.5版,使用WRF-Chem预测2019年苏门答腊岛森林火灾期间的PM2.5
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1071/es22030
P. Kombara, A. Pratama, Waluyo Eko Cahyono, W. Setyawati, Emmanuel Adetya, H. L. Fitriana
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引用次数: 0
A wave-driven surface circulation feature in Table Bay 桌湾的波浪驱动的地表环流特征
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1071/es22002
M. de Vos, M. Vichi, C. Rautenbach
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of ACCESS-S1 seasonal forecasts of growing season precipitation for Western Australia’s wheatbelt region ACCESS-S1对西澳大利亚小麦带生长季降水季节预报的评价
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1071/es22031
R. Firth, J. Kala, D. Hudson, F. Evans
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引用次数: 0
Australian climate warming: observed change from 1850 and global temperature targets 澳大利亚气候变暖:自1850年以来观测到的变化和全球温度目标
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1071/es22018
M. Grose, Ghyslaine Boschat, B. Trewin, Vanessa Round, Linden Ashcroft, A. King, S. Narsey, E. Hawkins
Mean annual temperature is often used as a benchmark for monitoring climate change and as an indicator of its potential impacts. The Paris Agreement of 2015 aims to keep the global average temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with a preferred limit of 1.5°C. Therefore, there is interest in understanding and examining regional temperature change using this framework of ‘global warming levels’, as well as through emissions pathways and time horizons. To apply the global warming level framework regionally, we need to quantify regional warming from the late 19th century to today, and to future periods where the warming levels are reached. Here we supplement reliable observations from 1910 with early historical datasets currently available back to 1860 and the latest set of global climate model simulations from CMIP5/CMIP6 to examine the past and future warming of Australia from the 1850–1900 baseline commonly used as a proxy for pre-industrial conditions. We find that Australia warmed by ~1.6°C between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020 (with uncertainty unlikely to substantially exceed ±0.3°C). This warming is a ratio of ~1.4 times the ~1.1°C global warming over that time, and in line with observed global land average warming. Projections for global warming levels are also quantified and suggest future warming of slightly less than the observed ratio to date, at ~1.0–1.3 for all future global warming levels. We also find that to reliably examine regional warming under the emissions pathway framework using the latest climate models from CMIP6, appropriate weights to the ensemble members are required. Once these weights are applied, results are similar to CMIP5.
年平均气温经常被用作监测气候变化的基准和其潜在影响的指标。2015年《巴黎协定》的目标是将全球平均气温保持在远低于工业化前水平2摄氏度的水平,优先限制在1.5摄氏度以内。因此,人们有兴趣利用“全球变暖水平”的框架,以及通过排放途径和时间范围来理解和检查区域温度变化。为了在区域范围内应用全球变暖水平框架,我们需要量化从19世纪末到今天的区域变暖,以及达到变暖水平的未来时期。在此,我们利用目前可获得的早至1860年的早期历史数据集和CMIP5/CMIP6的最新全球气候模式模拟集来补充1910年以来的可靠观测资料,以检验1850-1900年基线(通常用作工业化前条件的代表)以来澳大利亚过去和未来的变暖情况。我们发现,在1850-1900年和2011-2020年之间,澳大利亚变暖了~1.6°C(不确定性不太可能大大超过±0.3°C)。这一变暖是同期全球变暖1.1°C的1.4倍,与观测到的全球陆地平均变暖一致。对全球变暖水平的预估也进行了量化,并表明未来变暖的比率略低于迄今为止观测到的比率,在所有未来全球变暖水平上约为1.0-1.3。我们还发现,为了在排放路径框架下使用CMIP6最新气候模式可靠地检验区域变暖,需要对集合成员赋予适当的权重。一旦应用了这些权重,结果与CMIP5类似。
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引用次数: 3
Meteorological drivers of the eastern Victorian Black Summer (2019–2020) fires 东维多利亚黑夏(2019-2020)火灾的气象驱动因素
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-08 DOI: 10.1071/es22011
G. Mills, O. Salkin, M. Fearon, Sarah Harris, T. Brown, Hauss J. Reinbold
The spring and summer of 2019–2020 (Black Summer) saw the largest and most significant bushfire outbreak recorded in eastern Australia. In Victoria, the fires ran from mid-November through early autumn. In this paper, we use a high-spatial and temporal resolution 48-year fire weather re-analysis data set (VicClim5) to describe fire weather and vertical wind and stability profiles for five significant high Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) fire events and compare these with detailed fire reconstructions. A feature of several of these fires was very active overnight fire spread driven by topographically enhanced low-level jets and low fine fuel moisture content. The FFDI values on these nights were either the highest or near highest on record in the 48-year data set. We describe cases of lightning ignition, prefrontal fire spread and two cases of post-frontal fire spread – one into Mallacoota on the early morning of 31 December 2019 and the other a northward overnight run down the Buffalo Valley on 4–5 January 2020. On two of the days studied there were complex wind changes associated with the inland penetration of low-level south-easterly winds under the influence of locally generated pressure gradients. An elevated hot, dry mixed layer above these shallow layers also played an important role. On one occasion there is some evidence of possible mountain-wave modulation of surface wind flows. These events demonstrate a range of features of the fire weather and climate in eastern Victoria and the utility of VicClim5 in 3-dimensional climatological analyses.
2019-2020年春夏(黑夏)是澳大利亚东部有史以来规模最大、影响最严重的森林大火爆发。在维多利亚州,大火从11月中旬持续到初秋。在本文中,我们使用高时空分辨率的48年火灾天气再分析数据集(VicClim5)来描述5个显著的高森林火灾危险指数(FFDI)火灾事件的火灾天气、垂直风和稳定性特征,并将其与详细的火灾重建结果进行比较。其中几起火灾的一个特点是夜间非常活跃,火灾蔓延是由地形增强的低空射流和低细燃料水分含量驱动的。这些夜晚的FFDI值是48年数据集记录中最高或接近最高的。我们描述了闪电点火、锋面前部火势蔓延和两个锋面后火势蔓延的案例——一个是在2019年12月31日凌晨进入马拉库塔,另一个是在2020年1月4日至5日夜间向北蔓延至布法罗山谷。在研究的两天中,在当地产生的压力梯度的影响下,出现了与低空东南风向内陆渗透有关的复杂风变化。在这些浅层之上的高温干燥混合层也发挥了重要作用。有一次,有一些证据表明山波可能对地面气流进行调制。这些事件展示了维多利亚东部火灾天气和气候的一系列特征,以及VicClim5在三维气候分析中的应用。
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引用次数: 1
The Antarctic ozone hole during 2020 2020年南极臭氧空洞
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2022-03-02 DOI: 10.1071/es21015
Andrew R. Klekociuk, Matthew B. Tully, Paul B. Krummel, Stuart I. Henderson, Dan Smale, Richard Querel, Sylvia Nichol, Simon P. Alexander, Paul J. Fraser, Gerald Nedoluha

The Antarctic ozone hole remains the focus of scientific attention because of its importance to the health of the biosphere and its influence on the climate of the southern hemisphere. Here we examine the general characteristics of the 2020 Antarctic ozone hole using a variety of observational and reanalysis data and compare and contrast its behaviour with earlier years. The main feature of the 2020 ozone hole was its relatively large size, and persistence to the beginning of the 2020/2021 summer, with new maximum records being set for the ozone hole daily area and ozone mass deficit during November and December. This was in strong contrast to 2019 when the ozone hole was one of the smallest observed. We show that a key factor in 2020 was the relative stability and strength of the stratospheric polar vortex, which allowed low temperatures in the Antarctic lower stratosphere to enhance ozone depletion reactions in relative isolation from the rest of the global atmosphere. These conditions were associated with relatively weak Rossby wave activity at high southern latitudes that occurred during the strengthening westerly phase of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation as well as the emerging La Niña phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. A consequence of the conditions in early summer was the measurement of new maximum values of ultraviolet radiation at Australia’s three Antarctic research stations of Mawson, Davis and Casey. Indications of anomalous chlorine partitioning above Arrival Heights in Antarctica prior to the 2020 winter are provided, which may relate to effects from the 2019/2020 Australian wildfires. We also examine the effect of the downward coupling of the 2020 ozone hole to the climate of the wider southern hemisphere, which showed regional influences on surface temperature and precipitation in common with other strong vortex years.

南极臭氧空洞仍然是科学界关注的焦点,因为它对生物圈的健康及其对南半球气候的影响具有重要意义。在这里,我们使用各种观测和再分析数据来研究2020年南极臭氧空洞的一般特征,并将其行为与早些年进行比较和对比。2020年臭氧空洞的主要特征是规模较大,并持续到2020/2021年夏初,11月和12月的臭氧空洞日面积和臭氧质量赤字都创下了新的最大记录。这与2019年形成鲜明对比,当时臭氧空洞是观测到的最小空洞之一。我们表明,2020年的一个关键因素是平流层极地涡旋的相对稳定性和强度,这使得南极平流层下层的低温在与全球大气其他部分相对隔离的情况下增强了臭氧消耗反应。这些条件与南纬高纬度地区相对较弱的罗斯贝波活动有关,这种活动发生在准两年一次涛动的西风增强阶段以及El Niño南方涛动的La Niña阶段。初夏条件的一个结果是在澳大利亚的莫森、戴维斯和凯西三个南极研究站测量了新的紫外线辐射最大值。提供了2020年冬季之前南极洲到达高地以上氯分配异常的迹象,这可能与2019/2020年澳大利亚野火的影响有关。我们还研究了2020年臭氧空洞对更广泛南半球气候的向下耦合的影响,这显示了与其他强涡年相同的对地表温度和降水的区域影响。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of climate variability and change in ACCESS historical simulations for CMIP6 CMIP6 ACCESS历史模拟的气候变率和变化评估
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1071/es21028
H. Rashid, Arnold Sullivan, M. Dix, Daohua Bi, C. Mackallah, T. Ziehn, P. Dobrohotoff, S. O’Farrell, I. Harman, R. Bodman, S. Marsland
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引用次数: 3
Projected changes in Antarctic daily temperature in CMIP6 under different warming scenarios during two future periods 未来两个时期CMIP6在不同变暖情景下南极日温度的预估变化
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1071/es22008
Jiang-ping Zhu, A. Xie, X. Qin, Bingbo Xu, Yicheng Wang
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引用次数: 0
Using Chaos theory fundamentals for analysing temperature, precipitation variability and trends in Northern Patagonia, Argentina 利用混沌理论基础分析阿根廷北部巴塔哥尼亚的温度、降水变化和趋势
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1071/es22009
Grethel García Bu Bucogen, M. Piccolo, V. Y. Bohn, Gabriel Eduardo Huck
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science
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