Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics最新文献

This paper begins with a survey of recent commodity price developments that highlights the magnitude of this price surge and identifies the rapid rise in wheat prices as a key element. The analysis in this paper focuses on the extent to which domestic markets are insulated from these changes and on the resulting impacts on world prices. An econometric analysis using error-correction models finds stable long-term relationships between world wheat prices and most domestic prices of wheat and wheat products, but with considerable variation across countries in the rate of price transmission. A case study of the price shocks during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine food price crisis finds that price insulation roughly doubled the overall increase in world wheat prices and raised their volatility both during periods of price increase and price decline.

The war in the breadbasket of Europe, which spawned at the heels of the once-in-a-lifetime pandemic, sent major cereal prices spiralling upward. The unprecedented sequence of events leading to and including the war has tested the resilience of global commodity markets and the craftsmanship of policymakers. While the circumstances may differ, the disruption of global commodity markets is not exactly uncharted territory, with many examples and experiences from near and distant history. By showcasing anecdotal and empirical evidence from the past, this study puts the current crisis and its consequences in perspective and offers an outlook with a specific focus on low- and middle-income countries.

The Russian Federation’s efforts to expand its regional political influence culminated in launching a full-scale war of aggression on Ukraine on 24 February 2022. As both countries are large exporters of commodities crucial for global food and energy security, the resulting abrupt supply chains disruptions created substantial uncertainty in commodity markets worldwide. This study quantifies to what extent this major shock induced global commodity prices to move more synchronously by gauging their time-varying comovement. Using the concordance index, it analyses the development of 15 key global commodity price indices from January 2010 to July 2022. We find that the supply chains disruptions increased synchronisation of grain, energy and fertiliser prices at the global level in direction and magnitude. Moreover, they resulted in contagion across numerous food and non-food markets, creating a global covariate shock to food and energy security. Notably, the increased synchronisation at broad scale restricts the ability of consumers to mitigate the adverse effects of food and energy price inflation by resorting to inexpensive alternatives. Hence, policymakers must improve the resilience of global food supply chains sustainably such that adverse effects of attaining the Sustainable Development Goals in crises can be minimised.

China attaches importance to the development of standards in agri-food sectors, especially the harmonisation of national standards with international standards. Our study matches agri-food product standards and firm-product customs data for the period from 2000 to 2015. We perform an empirical analysis using the ‘distance to the frontier’ model to identify the effects of the internationalisation of China's agri-food product standards on the quality upgrading of firms' exported products. The results suggest that when Chinese standards are harmonised with international measures, there is a significant positive impact on quality upgrading. In addition, this international standards–quality relationship is nonmonotonic; that is, firm-level products that are far from the quality frontier are more likely to upgrade quality in response to an increase in standards. Conversely, national standards have not demonstrated good trade performance and have no significant quality-promoting effect on firms' export products. These results are robust to various checks. Moreover, the heterogeneous effects further suggest that the positive correlation between international standards and quality upgrading is even stronger for modified versions of international standards, in smaller-sized firms and foreign-invested firms. Finally, the quality upgrading effects of international standards induce an increase in both the extensive and the intensive margins of firms' exports.

Adaptability of a seed variety to a wide range of environmental conditions is important in farmers' variety adoption decisions, especially with the increased environmental volatility induced by climate change. Despite the apparent need for information, variety trial reports generally report average relative yields, but they do not provide farmers with measures of variety adaptability. Our theoretical model postulates that the adaptability of seed varieties matters in farmers' variety adoption choices. To test this conjecture, and to measure the magnitude of the effect, we develop a new measure of variety adaptability and estimate an empirical model of adoption in Western Canada. We find that a 1% increase in the adaptability of a variety will increase its adoption by 0.45%. This effect is statistically and economically significant. Our results imply that adding a measure of variety adaptability to crop variety guides could enhance the adoption of superior crop varieties, benefiting both farmers and breeders.

Australia, and particularly the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), has the most mature and adopted water markets globally. Water trading is an important policy tool to deal with water scarcity issues, demonstrating allocative, dynamic and productive efficiency benefits. At the same time, water markets have been controversial in Australia. Markets have been blamed for a range of issues, including claims of unsustainability, inequity, farm bankruptcy, farmer distress and farm exit. This study reviews the MDB water trade literature and finds little evidence to support such myths. Arguably, the biggest misconception is that critics do not separate water markets from the meta-governance institutional structures that define them. Perceived water market failures are often due to governance issues – not water trade per se. This is not to say that market failure does not exist, it does, and indeed, there are also serious distributional issues that need addressing (e.g., water property entitlements for indigenous stakeholders). As such, water market design and governance need to adapt and evolve as problems arise and the market matures. However, in an era of increasing water scarcity, enabling water trade remains one of the most important instruments available to assist in water sharing, reallocation and farm adaptation to climate change.

The use of improved crop varieties can increase agricultural productivity and enhance the welfare of farmers. This study examined whether the adoption of improved maize varieties (IMV) is associated with the increased welfare of farmers in rural Ethiopia. A panel data set with 1886 observations collected in three waves from 2009/10 to 2014/15 were used for the analysis. The adoption decision was modelled using a double-hurdle model, and the welfare effect of IMV adoption was estimated using a fixed-effects instrumental variable approach. Our findings reveal that IMV affects the welfare of farmers. Specifically, we found that IMV adoption increases households' income, asset ownership and maize consumption while also reducing income poverty. The poverty estimates indicate that a 10% increase in the area allocated to IMV was associated with a 4.79% reduction in the probability of being below the $1.90 poverty line. However, the poverty-reducing effect of IMV adoption was heterogeneous across households, with the most pronounced effect experienced by households with extensive landholdings. Our findings suggest that facilitating access to IMV and land under cultivation can effectively improve farmers' welfare and reduce poverty in rural Ethiopia.