Pub Date : 2018-08-01DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2018.12097333
C. Swanepoel, J. Fourie
For economic transactions, including debt transactions, to occur in a market system, property rights are essential. The literature has focussed on finding empirical proof of the effect of property right regimes, noting differences between de jure and de facto property rights. We use a novel combination of data on wealth and demographics to investigate the effects of property right regimes on economic outcomes at the individual level. At the Cape, de jure property rights between freehold and loan farms differed. Historians, however, suggest that de facto property rights between these two property types were the same. We exploit the random variation of the birth order, specifically being the eldest son, to estimate whether the type of farm and therefore the type of property rights, mattered for economic activity, in our case, debt transactions. Our results suggest that historians were correct: loan farms were as secure in their de facto property rights, despite differences in de jure property rights. Our results confirm that the local context in which property right regimes are embedded is at least as important as the property right regime itself.
{"title":"Why Local Context Matters: Property Rights and Debt Trading in Colonial South Africa","authors":"C. Swanepoel, J. Fourie","doi":"10.1080/10800379.2018.12097333","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097333","url":null,"abstract":"For economic transactions, including debt transactions, to occur in a market system, property rights are essential. The literature has focussed on finding empirical proof of the effect of property right regimes, noting differences between de jure and de facto property rights. We use a novel combination of data on wealth and demographics to investigate the effects of property right regimes on economic outcomes at the individual level. At the Cape, de jure property rights between freehold and loan farms differed. Historians, however, suggest that de facto property rights between these two property types were the same. We exploit the random variation of the birth order, specifically being the eldest son, to estimate whether the type of farm and therefore the type of property rights, mattered for economic activity, in our case, debt transactions. Our results suggest that historians were correct: loan farms were as secure in their de facto property rights, despite differences in de jure property rights. Our results confirm that the local context in which property right regimes are embedded is at least as important as the property right regime itself.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"42 1","pages":"35 - 60"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097333","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41654587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-01DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2018.12097335
D. von Fintel
New economic geography theories predict that historically densely s ettled areas also become more industrialised. Industrial agglomeration has therefore cultivated spatial inequalities in all parts of the world. South Africa presents an interesting case study, where institutional failures interrupted the ‘usual’ agglomeration process. On the one hand, current day metropolitan regions are located in historically densely populated areas. On the other hand, apartheid-era homelands also had highly concentrated populations, but did not industrialise to the same extent as other parts of South Africa. Much earlier in history, following the mfecane, these locations attracted migrants in search of favourable agricultural conditions and physical security in the face of conflict (they were high rainfall, rugged areas). The benefit of settling in these areas, however, only remained prior to imposed restrictions on land ownership (1913 Land Act) and movement of people (during apartheid). This paper decomposes modern spatial inequality, and establishes that agglomerations and historical institutional failures explain large proportions of spatial inequality. Furthermore, the homelands wage penalty reverses once these controls are introduced into various models: had agglomeration taken its course without institutional constraints, the homelands would likely have developed into high paying local economies. While new economic geography theories hold in the urban core, the densely populated former homelands did not follow this trajectory. Spatial inequality is therefore more severe than it would have been had institutional failures not prevented the former homelands from industrialising at the same pace as other historically densely populated areas.
{"title":"Long-Run Spatial Inequality in South Africa: Early Settlement Patterns and Separate Development","authors":"D. von Fintel","doi":"10.1080/10800379.2018.12097335","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097335","url":null,"abstract":"New economic geography theories predict that historically densely s ettled areas also become more industrialised. Industrial agglomeration has therefore cultivated spatial inequalities in all parts of the world. South Africa presents an interesting case study, where institutional failures interrupted the ‘usual’ agglomeration process. On the one hand, current day metropolitan regions are located in historically densely populated areas. On the other hand, apartheid-era homelands also had highly concentrated populations, but did not industrialise to the same extent as other parts of South Africa. Much earlier in history, following the mfecane, these locations attracted migrants in search of favourable agricultural conditions and physical security in the face of conflict (they were high rainfall, rugged areas). The benefit of settling in these areas, however, only remained prior to imposed restrictions on land ownership (1913 Land Act) and movement of people (during apartheid). This paper decomposes modern spatial inequality, and establishes that agglomerations and historical institutional failures explain large proportions of spatial inequality. Furthermore, the homelands wage penalty reverses once these controls are introduced into various models: had agglomeration taken its course without institutional constraints, the homelands would likely have developed into high paying local economies. While new economic geography theories hold in the urban core, the densely populated former homelands did not follow this trajectory. Spatial inequality is therefore more severe than it would have been had institutional failures not prevented the former homelands from industrialising at the same pace as other historically densely populated areas.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"42 1","pages":"81 - 102"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097335","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46262395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-01DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2018.12097336
E. Kerby
Interconnected business and trade routes, or “bamboo networks” have long been recognised as engines of growth in Asia. However, as Asian migration expands to Africa, what are their impact? This paper examines the links between trade flows and Taiwanese migration in South Africa from 1975 to 1995. Constructing a bilateral trade series from novel declassified migration and trade data, two aspects of the change in trade are quantified: Firstly, how did international trade change during sanctions, vis-a-vis South Africa and its largest OECD trading partners? Secondly, using migration data, I examine the extent to which the 1975 immigration of Taiwanese investors to South Africa could have increased and diversified trade between the two countries through their investment. Three years after the lifting of sanctions, the share of South African exports to Taiwan was both greater, but importantly more diversified in the sectors in which migrants invested. Using archival accounts, I discuss the possible processes through which these changes to trade could have occurred. Known as the migrant-trade effect, the results suggest that Taiwanese entrepreneurs increased trade by forming business networks and supply chains linking them to Asian markets.
{"title":"Bamboo Shoots: Asian Migration, Trade and Business Networks in South Africa","authors":"E. Kerby","doi":"10.1080/10800379.2018.12097336","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097336","url":null,"abstract":"Interconnected business and trade routes, or “bamboo networks” have long been recognised as engines of growth in Asia. However, as Asian migration expands to Africa, what are their impact? This paper examines the links between trade flows and Taiwanese migration in South Africa from 1975 to 1995. Constructing a bilateral trade series from novel declassified migration and trade data, two aspects of the change in trade are quantified: Firstly, how did international trade change during sanctions, vis-a-vis South Africa and its largest OECD trading partners? Secondly, using migration data, I examine the extent to which the 1975 immigration of Taiwanese investors to South Africa could have increased and diversified trade between the two countries through their investment. Three years after the lifting of sanctions, the share of South African exports to Taiwan was both greater, but importantly more diversified in the sectors in which migrants invested. Using archival accounts, I discuss the possible processes through which these changes to trade could have occurred. Known as the migrant-trade effect, the results suggest that Taiwanese entrepreneurs increased trade by forming business networks and supply chains linking them to Asian markets.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"42 1","pages":"103 - 137"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097336","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48839496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-01DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2018.12097331
J. Fourie
African economic history is experiencing a renaissance, and South African economic history likewise. Combining newly transcribed large historical datasets with econometric techniques now standard in the economics literature, economic historians have greatly improved our understanding of South Africa's development over the centuries. Yet many questions remain. This paper reviews the most recent contributions, several of which are published in this special issue, and surveys the road ahead.
{"title":"Cliometrics in South Africa","authors":"J. Fourie","doi":"10.1080/10800379.2018.12097331","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097331","url":null,"abstract":"African economic history is experiencing a renaissance, and South African economic history likewise. Combining newly transcribed large historical datasets with econometric techniques now standard in the economics literature, economic historians have greatly improved our understanding of South Africa's development over the centuries. Yet many questions remain. This paper reviews the most recent contributions, several of which are published in this special issue, and surveys the road ahead.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"42 1","pages":"1 - 14"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097331","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46091539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-01DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2018.12097334
K. Rönnbäck, O. Broberg
This article studies the return on British investments in South Africa during the period 1869 to 1969. The study is based on sample of 453 companies, operating within the region of current-day South Africa, and whose stocks were traded on the London Stock Exchange. Our analysis shows that the return on South African investments was substantially lower than what some previous research in the field has claimed. The results therefore challenge the received wisdom that investments in South Africa were particularly profitable to the investors.
{"title":"All that Glitters is not Gold: The Return on British Investments in South Africa, 1869-1969","authors":"K. Rönnbäck, O. Broberg","doi":"10.1080/10800379.2018.12097334","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097334","url":null,"abstract":"This article studies the return on British investments in South Africa during the period 1869 to 1969. The study is based on sample of 453 companies, operating within the region of current-day South Africa, and whose stocks were traded on the London Stock Exchange. Our analysis shows that the return on South African investments was substantially lower than what some previous research in the field has claimed. The results therefore challenge the received wisdom that investments in South Africa were particularly profitable to the investors.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"14 3","pages":"61 - 80"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097334","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41299341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-04-26DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.168
A. Duncan, Charles Nolan
In this chapter we: (i) Review the core DSGE workhorse models of financial frictions that existed ahead of the recent financial crisis. (ii) Summarize the recent empirical literature on the history of financial crises. (iii) Summarize the key modelling developments around credit intermediation in DSGE models since the crisis. (iv) Identify gaps in the literature that are especially important for policymakers and modelers.
{"title":"Financial frictions in macroeconomic models","authors":"A. Duncan, Charles Nolan","doi":"10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.168","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.168","url":null,"abstract":"In this chapter we: (i) Review the core DSGE workhorse models of financial frictions that existed ahead of the recent financial crisis. (ii) Summarize the recent empirical literature on the history of financial crises. (iii) Summarize the key modelling developments around credit intermediation in DSGE models since the crisis. (iv) Identify gaps in the literature that are especially important for policymakers and modelers.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85437826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-04-01DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2018.12097330
C. N’guessan
The objective of this study is to empirically contribute to a better orientation of the inflation targeting policy. Specifically, it assesses the impact of inflation targeting on employment in 19 African countries. We used a non-dynamic panel threshold model applied to data that cover the period from 1992 to 2014. We found that, below an inflation rate of 9.16%, the employment ratio increases with inflation, while inflation does not impact the employment ratio beyond 9.16%.
{"title":"The Effects of Inflation on Employment in African Countries: A Non-dynamic Panel Threshold Approach","authors":"C. N’guessan","doi":"10.1080/10800379.2018.12097330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097330","url":null,"abstract":"The objective of this study is to empirically contribute to a better orientation of the inflation targeting policy. Specifically, it assesses the impact of inflation targeting on employment in 19 African countries. We used a non-dynamic panel threshold model applied to data that cover the period from 1992 to 2014. We found that, below an inflation rate of 9.16%, the employment ratio increases with inflation, while inflation does not impact the employment ratio beyond 9.16%.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"42 1","pages":"135 - 150"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097330","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48912720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-04-01DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2018.12097329
E. Kouassi, L. Sethlare
The purpose of this study is to investigate the nonstationarity properties of unemployment rate in Southern African Countries over the period 1991 to 2014. In particular, we also analyze the hysteresis of unemployment rate in Botswana and South Africa.We used first and second generation panel unit root tests to determine whether output fluctuations are permanent or transitory.Our findings suggest that the shocks to unemployment rate are generally permanent. Results have important policy implications for macroeconomic policy in Southern Africa.
{"title":"Unemployment Persistence Insouthern African Countries: Further Evidence from Panel Unit Root Tests","authors":"E. Kouassi, L. Sethlare","doi":"10.1080/10800379.2018.12097329","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097329","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study is to investigate the nonstationarity properties of unemployment rate in Southern African Countries over the period 1991 to 2014. In particular, we also analyze the hysteresis of unemployment rate in Botswana and South Africa.We used first and second generation panel unit root tests to determine whether output fluctuations are permanent or transitory.Our findings suggest that the shocks to unemployment rate are generally permanent. Results have important policy implications for macroeconomic policy in Southern Africa.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"42 1","pages":"115 - 134"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097329","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45546931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-04-01DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2018.12097327
K. McCullough, M. Murray, B. Strydom
Understanding how information, and specifically volatility, flows between markets is of obvious interest to market participants. Given the importance of the FTSE/JSE Top 40 index as a barometer of the performance of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) in South Africa, this paper investigates the volatility characteristics and volatility spillover effects between it and its corresponding futures contracts. A BEKK-GARCH approach is adopted to model volatility spillover effects, and the DCC-GARCH model applied as a confirmatory analysis of the BEKK-GARCH findings. Volatility spillover flows from the futures market to the index market, indicating that the FTSE/JSE Top 40 futures is the more informationally efficient market.
了解信息，特别是波动性如何在市场之间流动，对市场参与者来说显然很有兴趣。鉴于FTSE/JSE Top 40指数作为南非约翰内斯堡证券交易所（JSE）业绩晴雨表的重要性，本文研究了其与相应期货合约之间的波动性特征和波动性溢出效应。采用BEKK-GARCH方法对波动溢出效应进行建模，DCC-GARCH模型作为对BEKK-GRCH研究结果的验证性分析。波动性溢出从期货市场流向指数市场，表明富时/JSE 40强期货是信息化效率更高的市场。
{"title":"Volatility Spillover Between the FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index and Index Futures: A Bekk-Garch and DCC-Garch Approach","authors":"K. McCullough, M. Murray, B. Strydom","doi":"10.1080/10800379.2018.12097327","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097327","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding how information, and specifically volatility, flows between markets is of obvious interest to market participants. Given the importance of the FTSE/JSE Top 40 index as a barometer of the performance of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) in South Africa, this paper investigates the volatility characteristics and volatility spillover effects between it and its corresponding futures contracts. A BEKK-GARCH approach is adopted to model volatility spillover effects, and the DCC-GARCH model applied as a confirmatory analysis of the BEKK-GARCH findings. Volatility spillover flows from the futures market to the index market, indicating that the FTSE/JSE Top 40 futures is the more informationally efficient market.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"42 1","pages":"63 - 86"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097327","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43869245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-04-01DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2018.12097324
R. Lötter, E. Smit
The trustworthiness of analysts’ reports has rightly been questioned after the financial crises of the 1990s and 2000s revealed biases in their behaviour. This study investigated the inclination of analysts to issue overly-positive recommendations, the issuance patterns preferred by individual analysts, and the differential impact of recommendations between periods of positive and negative sentiment. The recommendation issuance preferences of 901 local and international analysts, who collectively issued 30 486 recommendations for shares listed on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange from 1993 to 2011, were scrutinised. The investigation revealed that analysts issued their opinions using many different patterns within five possible recommendation categories, and showed signs of positive biases during all market cycles and investor sentiment periods. Surprisingly, analysts issued the same proportion of negative recommendations during periods of low business confidence and economic contraction than during phases of growth- and economic upswing. The BER Business Confidence Index outperformed the SARB’s business cycle indicator in demarcating periods where investors reacted stronger to recommendations issued by analysts. Investors are advised to study an analyst’s recommendation history in addition to current advice.
{"title":"Recommendation Pattern Preferences and Share Analysts Bias on the JSE","authors":"R. Lötter, E. Smit","doi":"10.1080/10800379.2018.12097324","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097324","url":null,"abstract":"The trustworthiness of analysts’ reports has rightly been questioned after the financial crises of the 1990s and 2000s revealed biases in their behaviour. This study investigated the inclination of analysts to issue overly-positive recommendations, the issuance patterns preferred by individual analysts, and the differential impact of recommendations between periods of positive and negative sentiment. The recommendation issuance preferences of 901 local and international analysts, who collectively issued 30 486 recommendations for shares listed on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange from 1993 to 2011, were scrutinised. The investigation revealed that analysts issued their opinions using many different patterns within five possible recommendation categories, and showed signs of positive biases during all market cycles and investor sentiment periods. Surprisingly, analysts issued the same proportion of negative recommendations during periods of low business confidence and economic contraction than during phases of growth- and economic upswing. The BER Business Confidence Index outperformed the SARB’s business cycle indicator in demarcating periods where investors reacted stronger to recommendations issued by analysts. Investors are advised to study an analyst’s recommendation history in addition to current advice.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"42 1","pages":"1 - 22"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097324","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42054198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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