Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2022.2143884
Chung-Khain Wye, Elya Nabila Abdul Bahri, I. Yussof, Wei-Lin Mao
Abstract Energy efficiency policy implemented within ASEAN-5 region raises concern over the possibility of compromising economic growth and trade in general, and labour market stability in specific. Previous studies have mostly considered the linear association and ignored nonlinearity between energy consumption and employment. Testing the existence of nonlinear energy-employment nexus for ASEAN-5 in 1991–2015, this paper shows an initially negative association between energy consumption and employment before turning positive beyond the energy and employment thresholds, portraying a U-shaped energy-employment nexus. Policies implementation may target on controlling energy increase beyond the employment threshold, and promoting employment creation beyond the energy threshold.
{"title":"How are energy and employment related? An analysis in ASEAN-5 open economies","authors":"Chung-Khain Wye, Elya Nabila Abdul Bahri, I. Yussof, Wei-Lin Mao","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2022.2143884","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2022.2143884","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Energy efficiency policy implemented within ASEAN-5 region raises concern over the possibility of compromising economic growth and trade in general, and labour market stability in specific. Previous studies have mostly considered the linear association and ignored nonlinearity between energy consumption and employment. Testing the existence of nonlinear energy-employment nexus for ASEAN-5 in 1991–2015, this paper shows an initially negative association between energy consumption and employment before turning positive beyond the energy and employment thresholds, portraying a U-shaped energy-employment nexus. Policies implementation may target on controlling energy increase beyond the employment threshold, and promoting employment creation beyond the energy threshold.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"46 1","pages":"201 - 223"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46462323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-03DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2022.2126998
Frederich Kirsten, I. Botha, Biyase Mduduzi, M. Pretorius
Abstract The international literature shows that demand for redistribution is influenced by subjective factors like perceptions of inequality and individuals’ perceived social status. However, few have assessed these subjective dynamics in the developing South, especially in Africa. This study aims to assess the subjective interlinkages between subjective social status, inequality perceptions and demand for redistribution in South Africa, the country with the highest level of inequality in the world. Using ISSP data and an ordered probit model, we show that subjective social status is a negative and significant determinant of demand for redistribution in South Africa. This means that South Africans who position themselves on the lower rungs of society demand higher redistribution and vice versa. Furthermore, perceptions of inequality are significant in driving demand for redistribution in South Africa, as this study finds that inequality tolerance negatively influences demand for redistribution and perceptions of actual inequality positively influence demand for redistribution. This means that South Africans who perceive higher levels of inequality tend to demand more redistribution, while South Africans who tolerate more inequality tend to demand less redistribution. Surprisingly, inequality tolerance is relatively high among the unemployed, Africans, and females. Many of these individuals are part of the most vulnerable in society and would actually benefit from more redistribution. Overall, the results show that, in South Africa, subjective factors like subjective social status and attitudes towards inequality significantly influence demand for redistribution.
{"title":"The impact of subjective social status, inequality perceptions, and inequality tolerance on demand for redistribution. The case of a highly unequal society","authors":"Frederich Kirsten, I. Botha, Biyase Mduduzi, M. Pretorius","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2022.2126998","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2022.2126998","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The international literature shows that demand for redistribution is influenced by subjective factors like perceptions of inequality and individuals’ perceived social status. However, few have assessed these subjective dynamics in the developing South, especially in Africa. This study aims to assess the subjective interlinkages between subjective social status, inequality perceptions and demand for redistribution in South Africa, the country with the highest level of inequality in the world. Using ISSP data and an ordered probit model, we show that subjective social status is a negative and significant determinant of demand for redistribution in South Africa. This means that South Africans who position themselves on the lower rungs of society demand higher redistribution and vice versa. Furthermore, perceptions of inequality are significant in driving demand for redistribution in South Africa, as this study finds that inequality tolerance negatively influences demand for redistribution and perceptions of actual inequality positively influence demand for redistribution. This means that South Africans who perceive higher levels of inequality tend to demand more redistribution, while South Africans who tolerate more inequality tend to demand less redistribution. Surprisingly, inequality tolerance is relatively high among the unemployed, Africans, and females. Many of these individuals are part of the most vulnerable in society and would actually benefit from more redistribution. Overall, the results show that, in South Africa, subjective factors like subjective social status and attitudes towards inequality significantly influence demand for redistribution.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"46 1","pages":"125 - 148"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42861725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-03DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2022.2127422
O. Sudibor, H. Ünlü
Abstract In the new century of the knowledge economy, highly trained human capital is anticipated to stimulate economic growth, becoming one of the grounds for competition – the “war for talent.” The business sector, higher education and talent are all crucially connected. Integration into international knowledge networks may be enhanced by the country’s domestic triple helix. International knowledge transfer, national innovation systems and national triple helix systems draw international talent flows because of their economic benefits. To examine a nation’s ability to draw talent, we utilise a two-stage error correction (EC2SLS) panel model for OECD countries between the years 2013 and 2017. We assume that it is influenced by several innovative and technological aspects, including the triple helix, international student mobility and other factors. Results indicate that when we compare low-middle-income nations with high-income countries, the attraction of talent may alter when taking into account university–industry relationships. It has been observed that low-middle-income countries need to exert more effort in university–industry collaborations than high-income ones to recruit more talent. Evidence suggests that nations seeking to recruit talent should target international students. In addition, nations may focus on public institutions, the labour market and innovation. Governments and companies should be proactive in the competition for international talent, the results show. These results add clarity to the debate over how international student mobility affects knowledge creation and emphasise the significance of university–industry collaboration in luring talent to nations with disparate income levels.
{"title":"The attraction of talent through international student mobility patterns and triple helix system: evidence from OECD countries for triple helix system","authors":"O. Sudibor, H. Ünlü","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2022.2127422","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2022.2127422","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In the new century of the knowledge economy, highly trained human capital is anticipated to stimulate economic growth, becoming one of the grounds for competition – the “war for talent.” The business sector, higher education and talent are all crucially connected. Integration into international knowledge networks may be enhanced by the country’s domestic triple helix. International knowledge transfer, national innovation systems and national triple helix systems draw international talent flows because of their economic benefits. To examine a nation’s ability to draw talent, we utilise a two-stage error correction (EC2SLS) panel model for OECD countries between the years 2013 and 2017. We assume that it is influenced by several innovative and technological aspects, including the triple helix, international student mobility and other factors. Results indicate that when we compare low-middle-income nations with high-income countries, the attraction of talent may alter when taking into account university–industry relationships. It has been observed that low-middle-income countries need to exert more effort in university–industry collaborations than high-income ones to recruit more talent. Evidence suggests that nations seeking to recruit talent should target international students. In addition, nations may focus on public institutions, the labour market and innovation. Governments and companies should be proactive in the competition for international talent, the results show. These results add clarity to the debate over how international student mobility affects knowledge creation and emphasise the significance of university–industry collaboration in luring talent to nations with disparate income levels.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"46 1","pages":"149 - 167"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48119533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-03DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2022.2109503
Audrey Nguema Bekale, I. Alagidede, Jones Odei-Mensah
Abstract Sparked by the ongoing advocacy for Africa’s derivatives initiatives, this work seeks to uncover the linkage between derivatives use and the business lending efficiency of banks in selected African economies. We studied a panel of 147 banks from 14 African countries between 2011 and 2017, using two competing non-parametric and parametric approaches for efficiency analysis. Respectively, Simar and Wilson’s (2007) two-stage double-bootstrap techniques (non-parametric) and an ML-based Bayesian SFA model (parametric) reflect the desired dynamic (instead of static) efficiency representations for panel analyses. Despite conflicting bank efficiency interpretations, both investigations corroborate the existence of widespread inefficiency of markets in Africa, which is likely strengthened by harmful fragmentation in the continent’s financial/capital markets, market illiquidity, a lack of transparency, and informational inefficiency, among others.
{"title":"Derivatives use and the business lending efficiency of African banks","authors":"Audrey Nguema Bekale, I. Alagidede, Jones Odei-Mensah","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2022.2109503","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2022.2109503","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Sparked by the ongoing advocacy for Africa’s derivatives initiatives, this work seeks to uncover the linkage between derivatives use and the business lending efficiency of banks in selected African economies. We studied a panel of 147 banks from 14 African countries between 2011 and 2017, using two competing non-parametric and parametric approaches for efficiency analysis. Respectively, Simar and Wilson’s (2007) two-stage double-bootstrap techniques (non-parametric) and an ML-based Bayesian SFA model (parametric) reflect the desired dynamic (instead of static) efficiency representations for panel analyses. Despite conflicting bank efficiency interpretations, both investigations corroborate the existence of widespread inefficiency of markets in Africa, which is likely strengthened by harmful fragmentation in the continent’s financial/capital markets, market illiquidity, a lack of transparency, and informational inefficiency, among others.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"46 1","pages":"105 - 124"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46469841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-03DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2022.2089217
J. Jeetoo
Abstract The dilemma around external debt accumulation and the increasing burden of debt servicing in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains a repetitive topic in the development debates. The aim of this study is to investigate the determinants of external indebtedness for SSA countries over the period 2002–2020 while accounting for spatial effects. It departs from the classical literature which uses external debt to Gross Domestic Product ratio as a measure of external indebtedness and formulates another measure, referred to as the Indebtedness Index, which is calculated by making use of the Stochastic Frontier Analysis technique. It accounts for the impact of spatial interactions in external debt accumulation behaviour, by applying the Spatial Durbin Model. The findings of the study show evidence of spatial interactions in external indebtedness among SSA nations. The results also show the reduction capacity of higher exports, political stability and government effectiveness on external indebtedness, while higher share of broad money to GDP exacerbates external indebtedness.
{"title":"External indebtedness in Sub-Saharan Africa: a spatial econometric perspective","authors":"J. Jeetoo","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2022.2089217","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2022.2089217","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The dilemma around external debt accumulation and the increasing burden of debt servicing in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains a repetitive topic in the development debates. The aim of this study is to investigate the determinants of external indebtedness for SSA countries over the period 2002–2020 while accounting for spatial effects. It departs from the classical literature which uses external debt to Gross Domestic Product ratio as a measure of external indebtedness and formulates another measure, referred to as the Indebtedness Index, which is calculated by making use of the Stochastic Frontier Analysis technique. It accounts for the impact of spatial interactions in external debt accumulation behaviour, by applying the Spatial Durbin Model. The findings of the study show evidence of spatial interactions in external indebtedness among SSA nations. The results also show the reduction capacity of higher exports, political stability and government effectiveness on external indebtedness, while higher share of broad money to GDP exacerbates external indebtedness.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"46 1","pages":"83 - 104"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49617273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2022.2077232
Masudul Hasan Adil, T. Ghosh, Ibrahim Nurudeen, N. Hatekar
Abstract The present study aims to empirically examine the potential relationship among macroeconomic fundamentals in India, such as oil price, monetary aggregate, output, interest rate, exchange rate, and inflation. To this end, we use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework to analyse the relationship using more recent data from 1996:Q2 to 2021:Q2. The results are concluded using impulse response functions, variance decomposition, and historical decomposition analyses. The study summarises the following observations: first, we find that the oil price has a considerable impact on Indian macroeconomic fundamentals. Second, monetary policy variable and the monetary aggregate respond to all shocks significantly. Third, despite adopting an inflation-targeting framework, India’s monetary transmission mechanism has remained weak, with monetary policy shocks having an insignificant impact on output and inflation. Lastly, the exchange rate is a very important variable for the Indian economy, significantly affecting the different macroeconomic fundamentals. These findings could have major policy implications. In the current flexible inflation-targeting framework, the use of the interest rate as an operating target and the broad money measure as one of the essential indicator variables may help anchor inflation within the targeted band.
{"title":"Dynamic interaction among macroeconomic fundamentals: evidence from India using the SVAR framework","authors":"Masudul Hasan Adil, T. Ghosh, Ibrahim Nurudeen, N. Hatekar","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2022.2077232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2022.2077232","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The present study aims to empirically examine the potential relationship among macroeconomic fundamentals in India, such as oil price, monetary aggregate, output, interest rate, exchange rate, and inflation. To this end, we use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework to analyse the relationship using more recent data from 1996:Q2 to 2021:Q2. The results are concluded using impulse response functions, variance decomposition, and historical decomposition analyses. The study summarises the following observations: first, we find that the oil price has a considerable impact on Indian macroeconomic fundamentals. Second, monetary policy variable and the monetary aggregate respond to all shocks significantly. Third, despite adopting an inflation-targeting framework, India’s monetary transmission mechanism has remained weak, with monetary policy shocks having an insignificant impact on output and inflation. Lastly, the exchange rate is a very important variable for the Indian economy, significantly affecting the different macroeconomic fundamentals. These findings could have major policy implications. In the current flexible inflation-targeting framework, the use of the interest rate as an operating target and the broad money measure as one of the essential indicator variables may help anchor inflation within the targeted band.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"46 1","pages":"43 - 63"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47304639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2022.2074873
Eldridge Moses
Abstract The paper estimates a gravity model to analyse the region-level differences that explain internal migration in post-apartheid Namibia, with the specific aim of understanding whether there are differences in motivations for long and short-distance migration. Given Namibia’s history of apartheid-era segregation, the sample is later restricted to African-language speaking migrants to determine whether the distances travelled differ from that of the full population. A zero-inflated negative binomial model is applied to estimate the effects of constituency-level economic indicators, labour market conditions, agricultural activity, and built amenities on migration flows. Regression analysis shows that analysing internal migration flows in Namibia without accounting for distance-related differences in migrant motivations may produce misleading results. Disaggregation of migration flows by distance reveals that for both the entire population and the restricted African-language speaking sample, constituency differences in amenity quality are predictors of intermediate-distance migration volumes. Per capita income differences in favour of the receiving constituency increase long-distance migration volumes. For all distances moved, previous migration in the sending constituency is a strong positive predictor of migration volumes. Migration volumes also increase when the sending constituency shares a border with another country.
{"title":"Long and short-distance internal migration motivations in post-apartheid Namibia: a gravity model approach","authors":"Eldridge Moses","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2022.2074873","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2022.2074873","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The paper estimates a gravity model to analyse the region-level differences that explain internal migration in post-apartheid Namibia, with the specific aim of understanding whether there are differences in motivations for long and short-distance migration. Given Namibia’s history of apartheid-era segregation, the sample is later restricted to African-language speaking migrants to determine whether the distances travelled differ from that of the full population. A zero-inflated negative binomial model is applied to estimate the effects of constituency-level economic indicators, labour market conditions, agricultural activity, and built amenities on migration flows. Regression analysis shows that analysing internal migration flows in Namibia without accounting for distance-related differences in migrant motivations may produce misleading results. Disaggregation of migration flows by distance reveals that for both the entire population and the restricted African-language speaking sample, constituency differences in amenity quality are predictors of intermediate-distance migration volumes. Per capita income differences in favour of the receiving constituency increase long-distance migration volumes. For all distances moved, previous migration in the sending constituency is a strong positive predictor of migration volumes. Migration volumes also increase when the sending constituency shares a border with another country.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"46 1","pages":"23 - 42"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46235127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2022.2085162
C. Meniago, J. Eita
Abstract The importance of government debt and institutional quality for economic growth has become fundamental, predominantly in a context where policy makers must face snowballing fiscal imbalances. This study investigates the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth in CFA countries, while also examining the role of institutions and debt in the relationship. Using panel data of thirteen countries over the period 1995–2017, the system GMM estimates have clearly established that contrary to the Keynesian view which postulates a positive relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth, there is strong evidence of a negative relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth. The economic reason behind this result could be because most developing countries (CFA countries included) do not spend on productive sectors of the economy. This could adversely affect growth, despite the fact that government spending increases every year. The findings of the interaction terms show mixed results.
{"title":"Fiscal policy-growth nexus in CFA countries: assessing the role of institutional quality and debt","authors":"C. Meniago, J. Eita","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2022.2085162","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2022.2085162","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The importance of government debt and institutional quality for economic growth has become fundamental, predominantly in a context where policy makers must face snowballing fiscal imbalances. This study investigates the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth in CFA countries, while also examining the role of institutions and debt in the relationship. Using panel data of thirteen countries over the period 1995–2017, the system GMM estimates have clearly established that contrary to the Keynesian view which postulates a positive relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth, there is strong evidence of a negative relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth. The economic reason behind this result could be because most developing countries (CFA countries included) do not spend on productive sectors of the economy. This could adversely affect growth, despite the fact that government spending increases every year. The findings of the interaction terms show mixed results.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"46 1","pages":"64 - 82"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45873272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2022.2060297
J. Fedderke, Wei-Ting Yang
Abstract As South Africa’s national debt has been on a steady upward trend since the late 2000s, this paper aims to construct an Early Warning System (EWS) using logit regressions to predict the likelihood of future public sector and private sector debt pressure. Results show that real GDP growth and the exchange rate matter for the prediction of private sector debt pressure. Government expenditure and real GDP growth are the most important predictors of public sector debt pressure. The implication of the net substantive magnitude of leading indicator impacts is that private debt pressure is principally structural, and public debt pressure is a reflection of discretionary policy choices. Early warnings from all four model predictions satisfy statistical reliability criteria. The best performing model is the public sector model for excessive debt accelerations, capturing 61.54% of the actual high-pressure events with a precision of 72.73%.
{"title":"Leading indicators of debt pressure: a South African application","authors":"J. Fedderke, Wei-Ting Yang","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2022.2060297","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2022.2060297","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract As South Africa’s national debt has been on a steady upward trend since the late 2000s, this paper aims to construct an Early Warning System (EWS) using logit regressions to predict the likelihood of future public sector and private sector debt pressure. Results show that real GDP growth and the exchange rate matter for the prediction of private sector debt pressure. Government expenditure and real GDP growth are the most important predictors of public sector debt pressure. The implication of the net substantive magnitude of leading indicator impacts is that private debt pressure is principally structural, and public debt pressure is a reflection of discretionary policy choices. Early warnings from all four model predictions satisfy statistical reliability criteria. The best performing model is the public sector model for excessive debt accelerations, capturing 61.54% of the actual high-pressure events with a precision of 72.73%.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"46 1","pages":"1 - 22"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48798093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-19DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2021.1978857
M. H. Kapche Fotso, W. Brown
{"title":"Cyclicality of size, value, and momentum on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange","authors":"M. H. Kapche Fotso, W. Brown","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2021.1978857","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2021.1978857","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46844596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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