Pub Date : 2019-04-30DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2020.12097365
J. Szczygielski, Leon Brummer, Hendrik Wolmarans
This empirical paper comprehensively sets out the impact of underspecification on a key foundational concept in empirical finance, the linear factor model. It places emphasis on the extensive consequences of factor omission for model estimation and interpretation. Factor omission in time-series models that relate asset returns to pre-specified factor sets is a common problem. A proposed standard and widely-used solution is the inclusion of a residual market factor which is assumed to be a catch-all proxy for omitted factors. This study shows that a specification that incorporates a set of carefully selected macroeconomic factors will be underspecified. The inclusion of residual market factors will alleviate but not eliminate the consequences of underspecification. Although the early use of factor analytically derived factor scores in factor models has been criticized, augmenting a model comprising pre-specified factors with statistical factors derived from the residuals results in an accurately specified model for which the diagonality assumption holds. Consequently, this paper shows that a factor analytic augmentation is an effective and readily implementable solution to the factor omission problem.
{"title":"Underspecification of the Empirical Return-Factor Model and a Factor Analytic Augmentation as a Solution to Factor Omission","authors":"J. Szczygielski, Leon Brummer, Hendrik Wolmarans","doi":"10.1080/10800379.2020.12097365","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10800379.2020.12097365","url":null,"abstract":"This empirical paper comprehensively sets out the impact of underspecification on a key foundational concept in empirical finance, the linear factor model. It places emphasis on the extensive consequences of factor omission for model estimation and interpretation. Factor omission in time-series models that relate asset returns to pre-specified factor sets is a common problem. A proposed standard and widely-used solution is the inclusion of a residual market factor which is assumed to be a catch-all proxy for omitted factors. This study shows that a specification that incorporates a set of carefully selected macroeconomic factors will be underspecified. The inclusion of residual market factors will alleviate but not eliminate the consequences of underspecification. Although the early use of factor analytically derived factor scores in factor models has been criticized, augmenting a model comprising pre-specified factors with statistical factors derived from the residuals results in an accurately specified model for which the diagonality assumption holds. Consequently, this paper shows that a factor analytic augmentation is an effective and readily implementable solution to the factor omission problem.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"44 1","pages":"133 - 165"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10800379.2020.12097365","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44588850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-04-01DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2019.12097342
C. van Walbeek, M. Kilumelume
Abstract We rank the forecast accuracy of 21 individuals and 8 institutions which have participated in Media 24's “Economist of the Year” forecasting competition for at least 10 of the past 14 years. Participants predict 12 macroeconomic and financial variables at the start of the year, and update their predictions during the course of the year. Over the 14-year period the “consensus forecast” (i.e. the average of the various forecasts) has outperformed all other participants. There is substantial variation in predictive accuracy among participants. Having won the competition at some point is not an indicator of producing consistently accurate forecasts.
{"title":"An Analysis of Media 24's “Economist of the Year” Forecasting Competition","authors":"C. van Walbeek, M. Kilumelume","doi":"10.1080/10800379.2019.12097342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10800379.2019.12097342","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We rank the forecast accuracy of 21 individuals and 8 institutions which have participated in Media 24's “Economist of the Year” forecasting competition for at least 10 of the past 14 years. Participants predict 12 macroeconomic and financial variables at the start of the year, and update their predictions during the course of the year. Over the 14-year period the “consensus forecast” (i.e. the average of the various forecasts) has outperformed all other participants. There is substantial variation in predictive accuracy among participants. Having won the competition at some point is not an indicator of producing consistently accurate forecasts.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"43 1","pages":"17 - 38"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10800379.2019.12097342","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47938624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-04-01DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2019.12097344
T. Ndawona, G. Keeton, N. Cattaneo, L. Mann
Abstract There is growing evidence that the dramatic increase in real commodity prices from 2002-2011 cannot be attributed solely to fundamental (demand and supply) factors. Over this period, there was major growth in the trading activities of financial investors in commodity derivative markets. This process, termed “financialization”, had important effects on price dynamics. This paper calculates rolling correlations for futures and spot returns for different commodities both for the period 2002-2011 when commodity prices were rising, and also from 2011-2015, when prices were falling. The paper finds a rise in correlations of index-based commodities during the period of rising prices, when commodity assets under management grew rapidly, and a fall during the period of declining prices, when commodity assets under management halved, supporting the view that financialization played a role in driving prices. This conclusion is reinforced by the finding that the same increase and decrease in correlations did not occur for bulk commodities. Granger causality tests reveal evidence of futures prices driving spot prices during the financialization period when prices were rising. However, there is a shift to more bi-directional relationships when prices (and correlations) fell. These findings support the role of financialization during the period of rising prices, as investor exposure to index-based commodities was usually achieved through the futures market.
{"title":"An Analysis of the Impact of the Financialization of Commodity Markets","authors":"T. Ndawona, G. Keeton, N. Cattaneo, L. Mann","doi":"10.1080/10800379.2019.12097344","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10800379.2019.12097344","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract There is growing evidence that the dramatic increase in real commodity prices from 2002-2011 cannot be attributed solely to fundamental (demand and supply) factors. Over this period, there was major growth in the trading activities of financial investors in commodity derivative markets. This process, termed “financialization”, had important effects on price dynamics. This paper calculates rolling correlations for futures and spot returns for different commodities both for the period 2002-2011 when commodity prices were rising, and also from 2011-2015, when prices were falling. The paper finds a rise in correlations of index-based commodities during the period of rising prices, when commodity assets under management grew rapidly, and a fall during the period of declining prices, when commodity assets under management halved, supporting the view that financialization played a role in driving prices. This conclusion is reinforced by the finding that the same increase and decrease in correlations did not occur for bulk commodities. Granger causality tests reveal evidence of futures prices driving spot prices during the financialization period when prices were rising. However, there is a shift to more bi-directional relationships when prices (and correlations) fell. These findings support the role of financialization during the period of rising prices, as investor exposure to index-based commodities was usually achieved through the futures market.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"43 1","pages":"63 - 95"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10800379.2019.12097344","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43870347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-04-01DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2019.12097343
H. Amusa, D. Fadiran
Abstract Previous studies on the J-curve hypothesis for South Africa have relied on aggregate trade data between South Africa and the rest of the world, or on similar data for trade between South Africa and its major trading partners. The evidence of J-curve effects in South Africa's bilateral trade have been mixed. In this paper, we revisit this issue by examining the short- and long-run effects of exchange-rate changes on trade flows using disaggregated industry data on bilateral trade between South Africa and the United States. From estimates of trade balance models using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, we find evidence of significant J-curve effects, as a depreciation of the South African currency has favourable short-run effects on trade balances for eight industries. These short-run effects continue into the long run for a quarter of the industries considered in the study. The results also show that income has significant long-run effects on trade flows in industries that account for almost 55% of trade flows between South Africa and the United States.
{"title":"The J-Curve Hypothesis: Evidence from Commodity Trade Between South Africa and the United States","authors":"H. Amusa, D. Fadiran","doi":"10.1080/10800379.2019.12097343","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10800379.2019.12097343","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Previous studies on the J-curve hypothesis for South Africa have relied on aggregate trade data between South Africa and the rest of the world, or on similar data for trade between South Africa and its major trading partners. The evidence of J-curve effects in South Africa's bilateral trade have been mixed. In this paper, we revisit this issue by examining the short- and long-run effects of exchange-rate changes on trade flows using disaggregated industry data on bilateral trade between South Africa and the United States. From estimates of trade balance models using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, we find evidence of significant J-curve effects, as a depreciation of the South African currency has favourable short-run effects on trade balances for eight industries. These short-run effects continue into the long run for a quarter of the industries considered in the study. The results also show that income has significant long-run effects on trade flows in industries that account for almost 55% of trade flows between South Africa and the United States.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"120 45","pages":"39 - 62"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10800379.2019.12097343","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41251354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-04-01DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2019.12097341
T. Qabhobho, C. Wait, P. le Roux
Abstract This paper investigates the implications of exchange rate regimes for monetary independence in SADC countries, by examining the impact of a prominent international interest rate (a U.S. interest rate) on the domestic interest rate. The study relies on a General Methods of Moments (GMM) model. The estimated results concur with traditional theories of the so-called impossible trinity. In fixed exchange-rate regimes (soft pegs and hard pegs) the relevant domestic interest rate responds to the international interest rate, in contrast to floating exchange-rate regimes (free-floating and managed floats). SADC countries may eventually engage in full global financial integration. Our results suggest that this will require countries either to opt for exchange-rate stability and financial integration, while sacrificing monetary autonomy or, alternatively, for monetary independence with financial integration, while sacrificing exchange-rate stability.
{"title":"Exchange-Rate Regimes And Monetary Autonomy: The Transmission Of Interest Rates In The Sadc","authors":"T. Qabhobho, C. Wait, P. le Roux","doi":"10.1080/10800379.2019.12097341","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10800379.2019.12097341","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper investigates the implications of exchange rate regimes for monetary independence in SADC countries, by examining the impact of a prominent international interest rate (a U.S. interest rate) on the domestic interest rate. The study relies on a General Methods of Moments (GMM) model. The estimated results concur with traditional theories of the so-called impossible trinity. In fixed exchange-rate regimes (soft pegs and hard pegs) the relevant domestic interest rate responds to the international interest rate, in contrast to floating exchange-rate regimes (free-floating and managed floats). SADC countries may eventually engage in full global financial integration. Our results suggest that this will require countries either to opt for exchange-rate stability and financial integration, while sacrificing monetary autonomy or, alternatively, for monetary independence with financial integration, while sacrificing exchange-rate stability.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"43 1","pages":"1 - 16"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10800379.2019.12097341","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45286290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-01DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2018.12097337
A. Bara, S. Abel
The study evaluates the significance of cross-border banking and international financial flows in enhancing financial deepening in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), including isolating the impact of regional, or pan-African, banks. The study also attempts to estimate the responses of the domestic financial sector to shocks in foreign banks and financial flows. Dynamic panel and general method of moments (GMM) estimations established that cross-border bank slows down development of domestic financial markets, although there are traces of positive effects in some measures. Pan-African Banks support credit development in domestic markets although diluting profitability. Impulse response and variance decomposition shows a largely negative reaction of domestic financial markets to shocks in foreign banks and financial flows in the short run, with the reaction turning positive in the long run. Indicatively, the results are demonstrating limited, but positive, financial spill-overs effects of foreign banks on financial development of other SADC countries. PanAfrican Banks are still to have a significant impact in the SADC countries.
{"title":"Cross-Border Banking, International Financial Flows and Financial Deepening","authors":"A. Bara, S. Abel","doi":"10.1080/10800379.2018.12097337","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097337","url":null,"abstract":"The study evaluates the significance of cross-border banking and international financial flows in enhancing financial deepening in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), including isolating the impact of regional, or pan-African, banks. The study also attempts to estimate the responses of the domestic financial sector to shocks in foreign banks and financial flows. Dynamic panel and general method of moments (GMM) estimations established that cross-border bank slows down development of domestic financial markets, although there are traces of positive effects in some measures. Pan-African Banks support credit development in domestic markets although diluting profitability. Impulse response and variance decomposition shows a largely negative reaction of domestic financial markets to shocks in foreign banks and financial flows in the short run, with the reaction turning positive in the long run. Indicatively, the results are demonstrating limited, but positive, financial spill-overs effects of foreign banks on financial development of other SADC countries. PanAfrican Banks are still to have a significant impact in the SADC countries.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"42 1","pages":"1 - 34"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097337","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42985768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-01DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2018.12097339
C. May, G. Farrell
In this paper, we extend the literature on modelling exchange rate v olatility in South Africa by estimating a range of models, including some that attempt to account for structural breaks and long memory. We examine the key nominal exchange rates of the South African rand and replicate common findings in the literature; particularly that volatility is ‘persistent’. We investigate whether this ‘persistence’ is due to structural breaks or long memory, and the extent of asymmetric responses of the rand to ‘good news’ and ‘bad news’. Our results show that while long memory is evident in the actual processes, a structural break analysis reveals that this feature is partially explained by unaccounted shifts in volatility regime; the most striking finding is the remarkable fall in the estimates of volatility persistence when considerably more structural breaks than those identified in recent studies are detected and integrated into the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) framework. Furthermore, the asymmetric GARCH model results provide evidence of leverage effects, indicating that negative shocks imply a higher next period volatility than positive shocks. The empirical results also shed light on the timing and likely triggers of volatility regime switching.
{"title":"Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility Dynamics: Empirical Evidence From South Africa","authors":"C. May, G. Farrell","doi":"10.1080/10800379.2018.12097339","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097339","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we extend the literature on modelling exchange rate v olatility in South Africa by estimating a range of models, including some that attempt to account for structural breaks and long memory. We examine the key nominal exchange rates of the South African rand and replicate common findings in the literature; particularly that volatility is ‘persistent’. We investigate whether this ‘persistence’ is due to structural breaks or long memory, and the extent of asymmetric responses of the rand to ‘good news’ and ‘bad news’. Our results show that while long memory is evident in the actual processes, a structural break analysis reveals that this feature is partially explained by unaccounted shifts in volatility regime; the most striking finding is the remarkable fall in the estimates of volatility persistence when considerably more structural breaks than those identified in recent studies are detected and integrated into the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) framework. Furthermore, the asymmetric GARCH model results provide evidence of leverage effects, indicating that negative shocks imply a higher next period volatility than positive shocks. The empirical results also shed light on the timing and likely triggers of volatility regime switching.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"42 1","pages":"71 - 114"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097339","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49235689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-01DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2018.12097340
B. Moyo
Many African countries experience power shortages and regular interruptions in electricity supply. We use stochastic frontier models to study the impact of power disruptions on the efficiency of African manufacturing firms. Power disruptions appear to have negative effects on efficiency and the use of generators further exacerbates the impact. The interaction of power outages with generator ownership result in a negative effect on efficiency and this could probably be explained by the high cost of running these alternative power sources. Our results support a policy of investment in the electricity sector, to improve the maintenance and quality of infrastructure that is used to generate power in African countries.
{"title":"Electricity Disruptions and the Efficiency of Manufacturing Firms in Africa: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis","authors":"B. Moyo","doi":"10.1080/10800379.2018.12097340","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097340","url":null,"abstract":"Many African countries experience power shortages and regular interruptions in electricity supply. We use stochastic frontier models to study the impact of power disruptions on the efficiency of African manufacturing firms. Power disruptions appear to have negative effects on efficiency and the use of generators further exacerbates the impact. The interaction of power outages with generator ownership result in a negative effect on efficiency and this could probably be explained by the high cost of running these alternative power sources. Our results support a policy of investment in the electricity sector, to improve the maintenance and quality of infrastructure that is used to generate power in African countries.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"42 1","pages":"115 - 135"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097340","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44900161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-01DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2018.12097338
F. Bhoola, J. Rossouw, M. Giannaros
This paper compares the accuracy of the GDP growth and inflation forecasts made by private sector forecasters who participate in the annual “Media24 Economist of the Year” forecasting competition to the official forecasts of the public sector, namely, the National Treasury (NT) and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). We include the inflation expectations as gathered through the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) quarterly survey, since these estimates constitute an integral part in informing the course of the SARB's monetary policy decisions. Furthermore, we compare the accuracy of the aforementioned entities to the forecasts of an adaptive-naive model that generates forecasts through the extrapolation of past actual inflation observations. This is undertaken using a combination of descriptive statistics and quantitative measures which allow for the analysis of both absolute and relative accuracy. We also undertake a non-parametric test for forecast dominance. Furthermore a deeper investigation of the relevant accuracy of public sector official forecasts compared to those made by private sectors participants, reveal that on average, over the full sample period, and with respect to both current and one year-ahead forecast, the BER have been more accurate than both the NT and the SARB.
{"title":"Comparing Macroeconomic Forecasts For South Africa From 2001 to 2017: Do We Need Official Forecasts?","authors":"F. Bhoola, J. Rossouw, M. Giannaros","doi":"10.1080/10800379.2018.12097338","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097338","url":null,"abstract":"This paper compares the accuracy of the GDP growth and inflation forecasts made by private sector forecasters who participate in the annual “Media24 Economist of the Year” forecasting competition to the official forecasts of the public sector, namely, the National Treasury (NT) and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). We include the inflation expectations as gathered through the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) quarterly survey, since these estimates constitute an integral part in informing the course of the SARB's monetary policy decisions. Furthermore, we compare the accuracy of the aforementioned entities to the forecasts of an adaptive-naive model that generates forecasts through the extrapolation of past actual inflation observations. This is undertaken using a combination of descriptive statistics and quantitative measures which allow for the analysis of both absolute and relative accuracy. We also undertake a non-parametric test for forecast dominance. Furthermore a deeper investigation of the relevant accuracy of public sector official forecasts compared to those made by private sectors participants, reveal that on average, over the full sample period, and with respect to both current and one year-ahead forecast, the BER have been more accurate than both the NT and the SARB.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"42 1","pages":"35 - 70"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097338","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42229895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-01DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2018.12097332
S. La Croix
Fourie and Green construct estimates of the Khoikhoi population over the 1652-1780 period using benchmarks for the initial and terminal Khoi populations and benchmarks for the punctuated population declines from smallpox epidemics in 1713 and 1755. I review the evidence underlying each of the four population benchmarks. For population benchmarks to be comparable, they need to compare the same populations over the same geographic areas. Since the 1652 benchmark is for the Khoi population and the 1780 benchmark is for the Khoi and San populations, the 1780 benchmark is revised to include just the Khoi population. Qualitative evidence also points to a higher rate of population decline between 1652 and 1723 and a smaller rate of decline between 1723 and 1780. Using the Fourie- Green methodology and adopting 3 of their 4 population benchmarks, I develop two revised estimates of the Khoi population to supplement the original Fourie-Green estimates.
{"title":"The Khoikhoi Population, 1652-1780: A Review of the Evidence and Two New Estimates","authors":"S. La Croix","doi":"10.1080/10800379.2018.12097332","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097332","url":null,"abstract":"Fourie and Green construct estimates of the Khoikhoi population over the 1652-1780 period using benchmarks for the initial and terminal Khoi populations and benchmarks for the punctuated population declines from smallpox epidemics in 1713 and 1755. I review the evidence underlying each of the four population benchmarks. For population benchmarks to be comparable, they need to compare the same populations over the same geographic areas. Since the 1652 benchmark is for the Khoi population and the 1780 benchmark is for the Khoi and San populations, the 1780 benchmark is revised to include just the Khoi population. Qualitative evidence also points to a higher rate of population decline between 1652 and 1723 and a smaller rate of decline between 1723 and 1780. Using the Fourie- Green methodology and adopting 3 of their 4 population benchmarks, I develop two revised estimates of the Khoi population to supplement the original Fourie-Green estimates.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"42 1","pages":"15 - 34"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10800379.2018.12097332","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49127013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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