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Revised Geologic Site Characterization of the North Korean Test Site at Punggye-ri 北韩丰溪里试验场的修订地质特征
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2015-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2015.1039343
D. Coblentz, F. Pabian
An evaluation of terrain characteristics provides a way to make geologic interpretations for denied-access sites. This contribution illustrates the utility of this approach by developing a revised geologic map of the North Korean test site through reconnaissance-based geomorphometrics (defined as the science of quantitative land surface analysis) and geospatial investigation. This study provides a way to quantify the geologic differences at the test site and suggests that geologic factors contributed to the prompt release of detected radionuclides associated with the 2006 nuclear test event compared to the 2009 and 2013 events. This method is relevant for test monitoring by providing: 1) A better understanding of host rock integrity and geologic coupling characteristics; 2) A means to facilitate a more accurate determination of explosive yields; 3) A better understanding of event containment and the likelihood of venting, and 4) An enhanced understanding of potential radionuclide transport mechanisms that might assist in future monitoring and verification of clandestine tests.
地形特征的评估提供了一种对拒绝进入的地点进行地质解释的方法。通过基于侦察的地貌学(定义为定量陆地表面分析的科学)和地理空间调查,开发了朝鲜试验场的修订地质图,这一贡献说明了这种方法的实用性。这项研究提供了一种量化试验场地质差异的方法,并表明与2009年和2013年的核试验事件相比,地质因素促成了2006年核试验事件中检测到的放射性核素的迅速释放。该方法与试验监测相关,提供了:1)更好地了解宿主岩石完整性和地质耦合特征;2)一种有助于更准确地测定爆炸当量的方法;(3)更好地了解事件遏制和泄漏的可能性;(4)进一步了解可能有助于今后监测和核查秘密试验的潜在放射性核素运输机制。
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引用次数: 24
A Bayesian Model to Assess the Size of North Korea's Uranium Enrichment Program 评估朝鲜铀浓缩项目规模的贝叶斯模型
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2015-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2015.1039431
J. Bistline, David M. Blum, C. Rinaldi, Gabriel, Shields-Estrada, S. Hecker, M. Elisabeth, Paté-Cornell
This article presents a model to estimate North Korea's uranium enrichment capacity and to identify probable bottlenecks for scaling up that capacity. Expert assessment is used to identify and estimate the size of key centrifuge materials and component stockpiles. Bayesian probability networks are used to characterize uncertainties in these stockpiles and a deterministic optimization model to estimate the capacity of North Korea's uranium enrichment program given the assumed components and materials constraints. A Monte Carlo simulation model is used to propagate uncertainties through the optimization model. An illustration of this approach, based on the opinions of three experts, suggests that North Korea was likely (about 80 percent chance) to have a larger uranium enrichment capacity than what was displayed to visitors to the Yongbyon nuclear complex in 2010. The three most important bottlenecks to increases in enrichment capacity are the availability of pivot bearings, maraging steel, and high-strength aluminum. The nature of the model allows it to be easily updated as new information becomes available about centrifuge materials and component stockpiles.
本文提出了一个模型来估计朝鲜的铀浓缩能力,并确定扩大该能力的可能瓶颈。专家评估用于确定和估计关键离心机材料和部件库存的大小。贝叶斯概率网络用于描述这些库存的不确定性,并使用确定性优化模型来估计假定组件和材料约束下朝鲜铀浓缩计划的能力。采用蒙特卡罗仿真模型对优化模型中的不确定性进行传播。根据三名专家的意见,对这种方法进行了说明,表明朝鲜可能(大约80%的可能性)拥有比2010年宁边核设施向游客展示的更大的铀浓缩能力。提高富集能力的三个最重要的瓶颈是枢轴轴承、马氏体时效钢和高强度铝的可用性。随着有关离心机材料和部件库存的新信息的出现,该模型的性质使其易于更新。
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引用次数: 2
Trace Fission Product Ratios for Nuclear Forensics Attribution of Weapons-Grade Plutonium from Fast and Thermal Reactors 快堆和热堆中武器级钚核取证归因的痕量裂变产物比
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2015-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2015.996079
S. Chirayath, Jeremy M. Osborn, T. M. Coles
The growing concern about nuclear terrorism threats has enhanced the need to develop fast and accurate nuclear forensics analysis techniques for nuclear material source attribution and to create a credible nuclear deterrence. Plutonium produced as a by-product in nuclear reactor fuel, especially in fuel discharged at low burn-up (1 to 2 MWd/kg), is potentially weapons usable material. In the event of plutonium interdiction from a smuggling act, its origin has to be established through nuclear forensics attribution methods before any response is initiated against this malicious act. The characteristics of separated plutonium from discharged reactor fuel and the associated fission product traces depend on factors such as the reactor type (thermal or fast reactor), fuel burn-up, irradiation history, and the chemical process used to separate plutonium. A new methodology of using trace fission product to plutonium ratios for nuclear forensics attribution of plutonium to the type of reactor used for its production is presented along with results obtained for case studies of a fast neutron spectrum breeder reactor and a thermal neutron spectrum reactor using open literature design information of these two types of nuclear reactors.
对核恐怖主义威胁的日益关注,加强了发展快速和准确的核取证分析技术的必要性,以确定核材料来源的归属,并建立可靠的核威慑。钚是核反应堆燃料的副产品,特别是在低燃耗(1至2 MWd/kg)排放的燃料中产生的,是潜在的武器可用材料。在禁止钚走私的情况下,在对这一恶意行为作出任何反应之前,必须通过核法医归因方法确定其来源。从排放的反应堆燃料中分离出来的钚的特征和相关的裂变产物的痕迹取决于诸如反应堆类型(热反应堆或快堆)、燃料燃烧、辐照历史和用于分离钚的化学过程等因素。本文提出了一种利用痕量裂变产物与钚之比进行核取证的新方法,将钚归因于用于生产钚的反应堆类型,并提出了利用这两种核反应堆的公开文献设计信息对快中子谱增殖反应堆和热中子谱反应堆进行案例研究的结果。
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引用次数: 21
Antineutrino Reactor Safeguards: A Case Study of the DPRK 1994 Nuclear Crisis 反中微子反应堆保障措施:以朝鲜1994年核危机为例
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2015-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2015.996076
E. Christensen, P. Huber, P. Jaffke
In this article a case study of the application of antineutrino safeguards to a real-world scenario, the North Korean nuclear crisis in 1994, is presented. Detection limits to a partial or full core discharge in 1989 based on actual IAEA safeguards access are derived and it is found that two independent methods would have yielded positive evidence for a second core with very high confidence. To generalize these results, detailed estimates for the sensitivity to the plutonium content of various types of reactors, including most types of plutonium production reactors, are presented, based on detailed reactor simulations. A key finding of this study is that a wide class of reactors with a thermal power of 0.1–1 gigawatt can be safeguarded achieving IAEA goals for quantitative sensitivity and timeliness with antineutrino detectors adjacent to the reactor building. Antineutrino reactor monitoring does not rely on the continuity of knowledge and provides information about core inventory and power status in a timely fashion. The necessary detection systems do not exist yet but are expected to become available within two to five years.
在这篇文章中,介绍了反中微子保障措施在现实世界中应用的一个案例研究,即1994年的朝鲜核危机。根据原子能机构实际的安全保障准入,得出了1989年部分或全部堆芯放电的探测极限,发现两种独立的方法可以非常高可信度地产生第二个堆芯的积极证据。为了概括这些结果,本文根据详细的反应堆模拟,详细估计了各种类型的反应堆(包括大多数类型的钚生产反应堆)对钚含量的敏感性。这项研究的一个关键发现是,利用反应堆建筑附近的反中微子探测器,可以保障热功率为0.1-1千兆瓦的大型反应堆实现国际原子能机构的定量灵敏度和及时性目标。反中微子反应堆监测不依赖于知识的连续性,并及时提供堆芯库存和功率状态的信息。必要的检测系统目前还不存在,但预计将在两到五年内可用。
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引用次数: 15
A Conversion Proposal for Iran’s IR-40 Reactor with Reduced Plutonium Production 伊朗减少钚产量的IR-40反应堆改造建议
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2015-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2015.996074
Ali Ahmad, A. Glaser
This article examines possible modifications of Iran’s IR-40 (Arak) heavy-water reactor that would limit its plutonium production without compromising its usefulness for civilian purposes. The proposed modifications only involve the fuel composition, avoid changes to the fuel and core geometry, and therefore have the advantage of minimizing the overall complexity and cost of conversion as well as shortening the time period required to implement these modifications. The suggested changes would significantly reduce the reactor’s production of plutonium from 7–9 kilograms to less than 1 kilogram per year. The article also examines key safety parameters, medical isotope production rates, and uranium resource requirements for all modifications considered. The analysis is relevant beyond the case of Iran’s Arak reactor and may provide some future guidance for converting other heavy-water reactors that continue to operate today.
本文探讨了对伊朗IR-40 (Arak)重水反应堆可能进行的修改,以便在不影响其民用用途的情况下限制其钚产量。拟议的修改只涉及燃料成分,避免改变燃料和堆芯的几何形状,因此具有最大限度地降低转换的总体复杂性和成本以及缩短实施这些修改所需的时间的优势。拟议的改变将使该反应堆的钚产量从每年7-9公斤大幅减少到不足1公斤。本文还审查了所有考虑的修改的关键安全参数、医用同位素产量和铀资源需求。该分析不仅适用于伊朗阿拉克(Arak)反应堆的案例,还可能为今后改造其他目前仍在运行的重水反应堆提供一些指导。
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引用次数: 2
EOV Ed board EOV板
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2014-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2014.952970
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引用次数: 0
Determination of the Global Coverage of the IMS Xenon-133 Component for the Detection of Nuclear Explosions 确定用于探测核爆炸的IMS氙-133组件的全球覆盖范围
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2014-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2014.952581
M. Schoeppner, W. Plastino
Radioxenon is an important atmospheric tracer to detect underground nuclear explosions. The International Monitoring System is designed to provide worldwide continuous physical monitoring and detection of nuclear explosions and incorporates 40 noble gas monitoring stations. They are constantly sampling the atmosphere for concentrations of radioxenon. This work analyses how effectively the network of stations is able to detect unusual xenon-133 concentrations in the atmosphere. A large multitude of nuclear explosions, evenly distributed in space and time, is simulated and the detection rate is calculated. Atmospheric transport modelling is applied to calculate the source-receptor-sensitivities for each monitoring station. The approach includes the anthropogenic radioxenon background, station-specific detection criteria, different scenarios for surface and subsurface nuclear explosions, and a spatial as well as a time dependent analysis. Recommendations are drawn for the improvement of the detection capability.
放射性氙是探测地下核爆炸的重要大气示踪剂。国际监测系统的目的是在世界范围内对核爆炸进行连续的实物监测和探测,其中包括40个惰性气体监测站。他们不断地对大气中放射性氙的浓度进行采样。这项工作分析了台站网络如何有效地检测大气中不寻常的氙-133浓度。模拟了在空间和时间上均匀分布的大量核爆炸,并计算了探测率。应用大气输运模型计算了各监测站的源-受体-灵敏度。该方法包括人为放射性氙背景、台站特定检测标准、地表和地下核爆炸的不同情景,以及空间和时间相关分析。提出了改进检测能力的建议。
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引用次数: 11
Plutonium Disposition in the BN-800 Fast Reactor: An Assessment of Plutonium Isotopics and Breeding BN-800快堆中的钚配置:钚同位素和增殖的评估
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2014-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2014.952578
M. Kütt, F. Frieß, M. Englert
According to the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement, which was signed in 2000 and amended in 2010, Russia and the United States agree to dispose of 34 tons of excess weapon plutonium each. Russia plans to use the plutonium as fuel in its sodium-cooled fast reactors BN-600 and BN-800. This article analyzes BN-800 core models with and without breeding blankets for the plutonium isotopic vector in spent fuel, plutonium production in breeding blankets, breeding ratios for different plutonium concentrations in fuel, and possible annual material throughput. It finds that any spent fuel in the core contains less than 90 wt% plutonium-239, but using breeding blankets the reactor can be configured to be a net producer of plutonium, even with a breeding ratio below one, and that plutonium produced in blankets will be weapon-grade.
根据2000年签署并于2010年修订的《钚管理和处置协议》,俄罗斯和美国同意各自处理34吨多余的武器钚。俄罗斯计划将钚用作其BN-600和BN-800钠冷快堆的燃料。本文分析了BN-800型核心堆模型中乏燃料中钚同位素载体的增殖层和不增殖层,增殖层中的钚产量,燃料中不同钚浓度的增殖层比,以及可能的年材料吞吐量。研究发现,堆芯中任何乏燃料的钚-239含量都低于90%,但使用增殖毯,反应堆可以被配置为钚的净生产者,即使增殖比低于1,而且在毯中生产的钚将是武器级的。
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引用次数: 8
Prospects for Conversion of HEU-Fueled Research Reactors in Russia 俄罗斯高浓铀燃料研究堆的改造前景
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2014-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2014.952136
A. Diakov
The importance of converting research reactors from highly enriched uranium (HEU) fuel, with enrichment levels as high as 90–93 percent uranium-235, to low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel, was recognized in the 1970s. Russia has developed and produced fuel enriched to below 20 percent to replace HEU-fuel for research reactors it had supplied to Hungary, Ukraine, Vietnam, the Czech Republic, Uzbekistan, Libya, Bulgaria, and North Korea, but until recently, has not given priority to the task of converting its own research reactors, despite the fact that Russia now has more HEU-fueled research reactors than any other country. In December 2010, Russia and the United States agreed to conduct a preliminary study on the possibility of converting six Russian research reactors. This article assesses the prospects for their conversion.
20世纪70年代,人们认识到将研究反应堆从铀-235浓度高达90 - 93%的高浓缩铀(HEU)燃料转换为低浓缩铀(LEU)燃料的重要性。俄罗斯为替代向匈牙利、乌克兰、越南、捷克、乌兹别克斯坦、利比亚、保加利亚、北韩等国供应的高浓铀研究用反应堆,开发并生产了纯度低于20%的燃料。但是,俄罗斯拥有的高浓铀研究用反应堆比世界上任何国家都多,但直到最近还没有优先考虑改造自己的研究用反应堆。2010年12月,俄罗斯和美国同意就改造6座俄罗斯研究反应堆的可能性进行初步研究。本文评估了他们转变的前景。
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引用次数: 5
Estimating the Frequency of Nuclear Accidents 估计核事故的频率
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2014-05-26 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2016.1127039
S. Raju
ABSTRACT Bayesian methods are used to compare the predictions of probabilistic risk assessment—the theoretical tool used by the nuclear industry to predict the frequency of nuclear accidents—with empirical data. The existing record of accidents with some simplifying assumptions regarding their probability distribution is sufficient to rule out the validity of the industry’s analyses at a very high confidence level. This conclusion is shown to be robust against any reasonable assumed variation of safety standards over time, and across regions. The debate on nuclear liability indicates that the industry has independently arrived at this conclusion. Paying special attention to the case of India, the article shows that the existing operating experience provides insufficient data to make any reliable claims about the safety of future reactors. Finally, policy implications of the article findings are briefly discussed.
摘要采用贝叶斯方法对概率风险评估(核工业用于预测核事故频率的理论工具)的预测结果与经验数据进行了比较。现有的事故记录对其概率分布进行了一些简化的假设,足以在非常高的置信度水平上排除行业分析的有效性。这一结论对任何合理假设的安全标准随时间和地区的变化都是强有力的。关于核责任的辩论表明,该行业已经独立得出了这一结论。文章特别关注了印度的情况,指出现有的运行经验提供的数据不足以对未来反应堆的安全性做出可靠的断言。最后,简要讨论了本文研究结果的政策含义。
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引用次数: 11
期刊
Science & Global Security
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