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Analysis of the DPRK’s Nuclear Weapons Capabilities by Estimating Its Highly Enriched Uranium Stockpile and Natural Uranium Reserves 通过估算朝鲜高浓缩铀库存和天然铀储量来分析朝鲜的核武器能力
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2019-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2019.1657608
S. Kurbanbekov, Seung Min Woo, S. Chirayath
Abstract There is a shortage of reliable information on the highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile, production capabilities, and natural uranium reserves of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea). It is, however, possible to estimate DPRK’s nuclear material reserves using the data in the open literature and considering various scenarios. Based on our literature survey and analysis we are projecting DPRK’s natural uranium reserves and their production capabilities of weapons-grade HEU. We also report the uncertainties associated with DPRK’s uranium enrichment capabilities due to the differences in estimates provided in the literature. Our analysis shows that given the range of the estimates of DPRK’s natural uranium ore reserves, its nuclear weapons program is unlikely to be constrained by uranium resources, provided they have the required mining and milling capacities.
关于朝鲜民主主义人民共和国(DPRK或North Korea)高浓缩铀(HEU)库存、生产能力和天然铀储量的可靠信息缺乏。然而,利用公开文献中的数据并考虑各种情况,估计朝鲜的核材料储备是可能的。根据我们的文献调查和分析,我们正在预测朝鲜的天然铀储量及其武器级高浓缩铀的生产能力。我们还报告了由于文献中提供的估计差异而与朝鲜铀浓缩能力相关的不确定性。我们的分析表明,鉴于朝鲜天然铀矿储量的估计范围,其核武器计划不太可能受到铀资源的限制,只要他们拥有所需的采矿和碾磨能力。
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引用次数: 1
SGS Editor’s Note 27-1
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2019-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2019.1613255
Michelle Marean
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引用次数: 1
The Scope of Foreign Assistance to North Korea’s Missile Program 对朝鲜导弹项目的外国援助范围
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2019-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2019.1613805
Markus Schiller
Abstract There is evidence that North Korea’s ballistic missile program benefited from support from the Soviet Union until its collapse and from Russia thereafter. Along with transfers of missile systems and rocket components, it appears that Russian engineers directly supported the program in North Korea. Analysis of missile launches, imagery, design solutions, and technology suggest that Pyongyang’s recent missile program may have continued to have external support despite a pause in the 2000s. This assistance may have enabled the progress in North Korea’s missile program leading to tests of an intercontinental range ballistic missile in 2017.
有证据表明,朝鲜的弹道导弹项目在苏联解体前和解体后都得到了俄罗斯的支持。随着导弹系统和火箭部件的转移,俄罗斯工程师似乎直接支持了朝鲜的项目。对导弹发射、图像、设计方案和技术的分析表明,平壤最近的导弹计划可能继续得到外部支持,尽管在2000年代暂停了。这种援助可能使朝鲜的导弹计划取得进展,导致2017年进行了洲际弹道导弹试验。
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引用次数: 2
Analysis of the Frequency and Detectability of Objects Resembling Nuclear/Radiological Threats in Commercial Cargo 商业货物中类似核/辐射威胁物体的频率和可探测性分析
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2018-12-07 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2019.1668175
B. Henderson
Abstract The detection of smuggled nuclear/radiological materials or weapons in commercial cargo remains a severe technical challenge due to the complexity of the global cargo network, sources of normally occurring radiation, and the broad nature of the threat. This article presents an analysis of the physical constraints on the nature and detectability of nuclear and radiological threats, using 122,500 radiography images from a containerized cargo stream. This analysis suggests that existing radiography systems, in conjunction with passive monitoring, may offer stronger detection capabilities than previously realized and presents data on the distribution of material in stream-of-commerce cargo to inform the development of future technologies.
由于全球货物网络的复杂性、正常发生的辐射源以及威胁的广泛性,对商业货物中走私核/放射性材料或武器的探测仍然是一项严峻的技术挑战。本文利用集装箱货物流中的122,500张射线照相图像,分析了核威胁和放射性威胁的性质和可探测性的物理限制。这一分析表明,现有的射线照相系统与被动监测相结合,可能提供比以前实现的更强的检测能力,并提供有关商业货物流中材料分布的数据,以便为未来技术的发展提供信息。
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引用次数: 7
Neutrino-Based Tools for Nuclear Verification and Diplomacy in North Korea 基于中微子的朝鲜核核查和外交工具
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2018-11-08 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2019.1603007
R. Carr, J. Coleman, M. Danilov, G. Gratta, K. Heeger, P. Huber, Y. Hor, T. Kawasaki, Soo-Bong Kim, Yeongduk Kim, J. Learned, M. Lindner, K. Nakajima, J. Nikkel, S. Seo, F. Suekane, A. Vacheret, Wei Wang, J. Wilhelmi, L. Zhan
Abstract We present neutrino-based options for verifying that the nuclear reactors at North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center are no longer operating or that they are operating in an agreed manner, precluding weapons production. Neutrino detectors may be a mutually agreeable complement to traditional verification protocols because they do not require access inside reactor buildings, could be installed collaboratively, and provide persistent and specific observations. At Yongbyon, neutrino detectors could passively verify reactor shutdowns or monitor power levels and plutonium contents, all from outside the reactor buildings. The monitoring options presented here build on recent successes in basic particle physics. Following a dedicated design study, these tools could be deployed in as little as one year at a reasonable cost. In North Korea, cooperative deployment of neutrino detectors could help redirect a limited number of scientists and engineers from military applications to peaceful technical work in an international community. Opportunities for scientific collaboration with South Korea are especially strong. We encourage policymakers to consider collaborative neutrino projects within a broader program of action toward stability and security on the Korean Peninsula.
摘要:我们提出了基于中微子的方案来验证朝鲜宁边核研究中心的核反应堆不再运行或它们以商定的方式运行,排除了武器生产。中微子探测器可能是一种双方都同意的传统验证协议的补充,因为它们不需要进入反应堆建筑物内部,可以协同安装,并提供持续和具体的观察。在宁边,中微子探测器可以被动地验证反应堆是否关闭,或监测功率水平和钚含量,这些都是在反应堆建筑之外进行的。这里介绍的监测方法是基于最近在基本粒子物理学方面取得的成功。经过专门的设计研究,这些工具可以在一年内以合理的成本部署。在朝鲜,合作部署中微子探测器可以帮助将数量有限的科学家和工程师从军事应用转向国际社会的和平技术工作。与韩国进行科学合作的机会尤其巨大。我们鼓励政策制定者在维护朝鲜半岛稳定与安全的更广泛行动计划中考虑合作中微子项目。
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引用次数: 12
A Cryptographic Escrow for Treaty Declarations and Step-by-Step Verification 条约声明和逐步核查的加密托管
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2018-09-11 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2019.1573483
Sébastien Philippe, A. Glaser, E. Felten
Abstract The verification of arms-control and disarmament agreements requires states to provide declarations, including information on sensitive military sites and assets. There are important cases, however, in which negotiations of these agreements are impeded because states are reluctant to provide any such data, because of concerns about prematurely handing over militarily significant information. To address this challenge, we present a cryptographic escrow that allows a state to make a complete declaration of sites and assets at the outset and commit to its content, but only reveal the sensitive information therein sequentially. Combined with an inspection regime, our escrow allows for step-by-step verification of the correctness and completeness of the initial declaration so that the information release and inspections keep pace with parallel diplomatic and political processes. We apply this approach to the possible denuclearization of North Korea. Such approach can be applied, however, to any agreement requiring the sharing of sensitive information.
军备控制和裁军协议的核查要求各国提供声明,包括敏感军事地点和资产的信息。然而,在一些重要的情况下,这些协议的谈判受到阻碍,因为各国不愿提供任何此类数据,因为担心过早移交具有重要军事意义的信息。为了应对这一挑战,我们提出了一种加密托管,允许一个国家在一开始就对网站和资产进行完整的声明,并承诺其内容,但只按顺序显示其中的敏感信息。我们的托管与核查制度相结合,可以逐步核查最初申报的正确性和完整性,以便信息的发布和核查与并行的外交和政治进程保持同步。我们将这种方法应用于朝鲜可能实现的无核化。然而,这种方法可以应用于任何需要共享敏感信息的协议。
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引用次数: 5
A Passive Method for the Detection of Explosives and Weapons-Grade Plutonium in Nuclear Warheads 一种被动探测核弹头中炸药和武器级钚的方法
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2018-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2018.1517431
Huang Meng, Zhu Jian-yu, Wu Jun, Li Rui
Abstract Before a nuclear warhead is dismantled, the special nuclear material and explosives must be identified and authenticated. This paper proposes a passive method to detect and identify weapons-grade plutonium cores and explosives in nuclear warheads based on neutron analyses techniques. This paper first describes the principles of a passive detection method that calculates the element number ratio (namely the ratio between the nucleus numbers of two different elements) of the element of interest to identify a source and how this method could be applied to the detection of warhead explosives. Second, a simulation of weapons-grade plutonium using JMCT software is described. The simulation assumes the elemental components of the explosives are activated by the production and transport of neutrons from the weapons-grade plutonium core and counted the gamma ray emissions of from the resultant hydrogen, carbon, and nitrogen nuclides with a high-purity germanium detector (HPGe) array. After an hour of counting, the element number ratios of these elements in the simulation were reconstructed and accurately matched the values for the explosives in the warhead. These results suggest that the passive method can be used to identify the presence of weapons-grade plutonium in the warhead. In addition, the simulation showed that the passive method can also discriminate between the various types of explosives in warheads, providing important physical information for the verification process during dismantlement.
在拆除核弹头之前,必须对特殊核材料和炸药进行识别和鉴定。本文提出了一种基于中子分析技术的被动探测和识别武器级核弹头钚芯和爆炸物的方法。本文首先介绍了通过计算感兴趣元素的元素数比(即两个不同元素的核数之比)来识别源的被动探测方法的原理,以及如何将该方法应用于弹头炸药的探测。其次,描述了使用JMCT软件对武器级钚的模拟。模拟假设炸药的元素成分是由武器级钚核心的中子的产生和传输激活的,并使用高纯度锗探测器(HPGe)阵列计算由此产生的氢、碳和氮核素的伽马射线发射。经过一个小时的计算,重建了模拟中这些元素的元素数比,并与战斗部中炸药的值精确匹配。这些结果表明,被动式方法可用于鉴定弹头中是否存在武器级钚。此外,仿真结果表明,该方法还能区分弹头内不同类型的炸药,为拆除时的验证过程提供重要的物理信息。
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引用次数: 1
Nuclear Archaeology to Distinguish Plutonium and Tritium Production Modes in Heavy-Water Reactors 区分重水反应堆中钚和氚生产方式的核考古学
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2018-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2018.1518693
J. de Troullioud de Lanversin, M. Göttsche, A. Glaser
Abstract Several nuclear archaeology techniques have been proposed to determine historic plutonium production in dedicated nuclear reactors. These methods rely on sampling materials from the reactor core, or specially designed monitor tags, to examine suited isotopic ratios and deduce the amount of plutonium produced. However, some production reactors are capable of producing isotopes other than plutonium, such as tritium. If a reactor was declared to produce tritium, it would be crucial to confirm that it was in fact producing tritium, and not plutonium. In this paper, we describe how isotopic ratios discrepancies could be used to distinguish between plutonium and tritium production modes. We present results obtained from the simulation of reactor lattices inspired by Savannah River Site heavy-water production reactors and show that elements such as hafnium and tungsten can detect undeclared production of plutonium.
为了确定专用核反应堆的历史钚产量,已经提出了几种核考古技术。这些方法依赖于从反应堆堆芯取样材料,或特别设计的监测标签,来检查合适的同位素比率,并推断出钚的产量。然而,一些生产反应堆能够生产除钚以外的同位素,如氚。如果一个反应堆被宣布生产氚,关键是要确认它实际上生产的是氚,而不是钚。在本文中,我们描述了如何同位素比率差异可以用来区分钚和氚的生产模式。我们介绍了从模拟萨凡纳河重水生产反应堆中获得的结果,并表明诸如铪和钨之类的元素可以探测到未申报的钚生产。
{"title":"Nuclear Archaeology to Distinguish Plutonium and Tritium Production Modes in Heavy-Water Reactors","authors":"J. de Troullioud de Lanversin, M. Göttsche, A. Glaser","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2018.1518693","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2018.1518693","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Several nuclear archaeology techniques have been proposed to determine historic plutonium production in dedicated nuclear reactors. These methods rely on sampling materials from the reactor core, or specially designed monitor tags, to examine suited isotopic ratios and deduce the amount of plutonium produced. However, some production reactors are capable of producing isotopes other than plutonium, such as tritium. If a reactor was declared to produce tritium, it would be crucial to confirm that it was in fact producing tritium, and not plutonium. In this paper, we describe how isotopic ratios discrepancies could be used to distinguish between plutonium and tritium production modes. We present results obtained from the simulation of reactor lattices inspired by Savannah River Site heavy-water production reactors and show that elements such as hafnium and tungsten can detect undeclared production of plutonium.","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"46 1","pages":"70 - 90"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2018-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91030286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Proliferation Relevance and Safeguards Implications of Partitioning and Transmutation Nuclear Fuel Cycles 核燃料循环分块和嬗变的扩散相关性和保障意义
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2018-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2018.1517432
E. Buhmann, G. Kirchner
Abstract Over the last 2 decades there has been renewed interest in developing advanced nuclear reactors and fuel cycles. Many of these advanced design concepts require or can use fuel elements that contain actinides recycled from light water reactor spent fuel. Irradiation of these elements in fast nuclear reactors is supposed to transmute them into less toxic isotopes and reduce their mass. Since transmutation is not efficient, recycling into new advanced reactor fuel must occur repeatedly to achieve a substantial reduction in mass. The introduction of this technology will create long-term proliferation risks and require safeguarding not only of plutonium, but also of the other target actinides: neptunium, americium, and curium. These elements will be present in isotopic mixtures for which information on their critical masses is unavailable. This paper provides data on critical masses and spontaneous fission neutron background for the isotopic compositions of the actinides of interest and their evolution in light water reactor fuel of various burnups and during spent fuel storage. These data are complemented by generic estimates of total inventories of these elements present in full-scale partitioning and transmutation fuel cycles being considered for commercial scale and of the time periods required for significantly reducing their proliferation potential.
在过去的二十年里,人们对开发先进的核反应堆和燃料循环重新产生了兴趣。许多这些先进的设计概念要求或可以使用含有从轻水反应堆乏燃料中回收的锕系元素的燃料元件。在快速核反应堆中对这些元素进行辐照,可以将它们转化为毒性较小的同位素,并减少它们的质量。由于嬗变效率不高,因此必须反复进行再循环,制成新的先进反应堆燃料,以实现质量的大幅降低。这项技术的引进将造成长期的扩散风险,不仅需要对钚,而且还需要对其他目标锕系元素:镎、镅和curium进行保护。这些元素将存在于同位素混合物中,但无法获得其临界质量的信息。本文提供了有关锕系元素同位素组成的临界质量和自发裂变中子背景资料,以及它们在轻水反应堆燃料中不同燃烧和乏燃料贮存过程中的演变。这些数据还补充了正在考虑用于商业规模的全面分馏和嬗变燃料循环中存在的这些元素的总库存的一般估计,以及大大减少其扩散潜力所需的时间。
{"title":"Proliferation Relevance and Safeguards Implications of Partitioning and Transmutation Nuclear Fuel Cycles","authors":"E. Buhmann, G. Kirchner","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2018.1517432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2018.1517432","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Over the last 2 decades there has been renewed interest in developing advanced nuclear reactors and fuel cycles. Many of these advanced design concepts require or can use fuel elements that contain actinides recycled from light water reactor spent fuel. Irradiation of these elements in fast nuclear reactors is supposed to transmute them into less toxic isotopes and reduce their mass. Since transmutation is not efficient, recycling into new advanced reactor fuel must occur repeatedly to achieve a substantial reduction in mass. The introduction of this technology will create long-term proliferation risks and require safeguarding not only of plutonium, but also of the other target actinides: neptunium, americium, and curium. These elements will be present in isotopic mixtures for which information on their critical masses is unavailable. This paper provides data on critical masses and spontaneous fission neutron background for the isotopic compositions of the actinides of interest and their evolution in light water reactor fuel of various burnups and during spent fuel storage. These data are complemented by generic estimates of total inventories of these elements present in full-scale partitioning and transmutation fuel cycles being considered for commercial scale and of the time periods required for significantly reducing their proliferation potential.","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"45 1","pages":"108 - 91"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2018-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73571772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Detecting Clandestine Reprocessing Activities in the Middle East 发现中东的秘密再处理活动
IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2018-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2018.1446540
M. Schoeppner
ABSTRACT Remote monitoring of krypton-85 from undeclared reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel could be part of a fissile material cut-off treaty, could serve as an additional measure for the IAEA safeguards system to monitor compliance with the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty, and could be an important verification tool of a reprocessing moratorium or Nuclear Weapon Free Zone in the Middle East or East Asia. Atmospheric transport modelling is applied to determine the area over which krypton-85 emissions from undeclared reprocessing activities at various levels in the Middle East would still be detectable against the high krypton-85 background from reprocessing in historical weapon programs in the United States and USSR as well as more recent and ongoing commercial reprocessing in France and the U.K. Analysis of annual wind flow over Israel's Dimona facility, the only operating reprocessing site in the region, suggests that a known reprocessing plant could be monitored with one or a few fixed monitoring stations. Random air sampling for krypton-85 analysis, perhaps using drones, may be feasible for reliable and timely detection of clandestine reprocessing plants against the krypton-85 background but would require on the order of 50–100 air samples per day. Ending reprocessing at La Hague in France and at Sellafield in the UK and the resulting decline of the krypton-85 background over time would reduce to about 10 the number of daily samples required to monitor the Middle East.
对乏燃料未申报后处理过程中产生的氪-85进行远程监测可作为裂变材料禁产条约的一部分,可作为国际原子能机构监督《不扩散核武器条约》遵守情况的额外措施,并可成为中东或东亚地区暂停后处理或无核武器区的重要核查工具。大气运输模型用于确定在美国和苏联历史武器计划的后处理以及法国和英国最近和正在进行的商业后处理产生的高氪-85背景下,中东地区未申报的不同水平的氪-85排放仍可检测到的区域。该区域唯一正在运作的后处理场址表明,可以用一个或几个固定监测站监测已知的后处理工厂。对氪-85进行随机空气采样分析,或许可以使用无人机,这对于在氪-85背景下可靠和及时地发现秘密的后处理工厂是可行的,但每天需要大约50-100个空气样本。在法国的海牙和英国的塞拉菲尔德停止再处理,随着时间的推移,氪-85本底的减少将使监测中东所需的每日样本数量减少到10个左右。
{"title":"Detecting Clandestine Reprocessing Activities in the Middle East","authors":"M. Schoeppner","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2018.1446540","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2018.1446540","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Remote monitoring of krypton-85 from undeclared reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel could be part of a fissile material cut-off treaty, could serve as an additional measure for the IAEA safeguards system to monitor compliance with the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty, and could be an important verification tool of a reprocessing moratorium or Nuclear Weapon Free Zone in the Middle East or East Asia. Atmospheric transport modelling is applied to determine the area over which krypton-85 emissions from undeclared reprocessing activities at various levels in the Middle East would still be detectable against the high krypton-85 background from reprocessing in historical weapon programs in the United States and USSR as well as more recent and ongoing commercial reprocessing in France and the U.K. Analysis of annual wind flow over Israel's Dimona facility, the only operating reprocessing site in the region, suggests that a known reprocessing plant could be monitored with one or a few fixed monitoring stations. Random air sampling for krypton-85 analysis, perhaps using drones, may be feasible for reliable and timely detection of clandestine reprocessing plants against the krypton-85 background but would require on the order of 50–100 air samples per day. Ending reprocessing at La Hague in France and at Sellafield in the UK and the resulting decline of the krypton-85 background over time would reduce to about 10 the number of daily samples required to monitor the Middle East.","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"138 1","pages":"19 - 3"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2018-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85833556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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Science & Global Security
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