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Considering counterfactual scenarios in conservation planning: Perspectives from a biodiverse mining area in the Atlantic Forest 考虑保护规划中的反事实情景:来自大西洋森林生物多样性矿区的观点
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pecon.2022.10.003
Juliana Siqueira-Gay, Luis E. Sánchez

Mining and associated infrastructure have been driving land use changes, affecting important biodiversity values and ecosystems services. To balance these impacts, some mining companies implement biodiversity offsets and conservation actions. By simulating a counterfactual land use scenario, this study quantifies the cumulative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services resulting from land use and land cover change in a biodiverse region in the Atlantic Forest after implementation of a new mine and its offsets. Our results show that conservation actions at the project scale should be planned considering the regional context, which may influence impacts on areas with high conservation priority as well as the ecosystem services budget. The comparison among scenarios reveals that raw materials and carbon storage are the least affected budgets, while fresh water, pollination, and local climate and air quality regulation are most impacted. Areas with high conservation priority could be benefited with increased forest cover in future, whilst the demand for some ecosystem services can be affected. Counterfactual baselines could support conservation targets by prioritizing protection and restoration measures – especially offset planning – for halting pressures on biodiversity and balancing ecosystem services supply and demand.

采矿和相关基础设施一直在推动土地利用变化,影响重要的生物多样性价值和生态系统服务。为了平衡这些影响,一些矿业公司实施了生物多样性抵消和保护行动。通过模拟一个反事实的土地利用情景,本研究量化了大西洋森林生物多样性区在实施新矿山及其抵消后,土地利用和土地覆盖变化对生物多样性和生态系统服务的累积影响。研究结果表明,项目尺度上的保护行动应考虑区域环境,这可能会影响对高优先保护区域的影响以及生态系统服务预算。不同情景的对比表明,原材料和碳储存受到的影响最小,而淡水、授粉、当地气候和空气质量调控受到的影响最大。高度优先保育的地区可能会因未来森林覆盖的增加而受益,而对某些生态系统服务的需求可能会受到影响。反事实基线可以通过优先考虑保护和恢复措施(特别是抵消规划)来支持保护目标,以遏制对生物多样性的压力并平衡生态系统服务的供需。
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引用次数: 1
Legal reserves ensure alpha and beta ant diversity in highly modified agricultural landscapes 法律储备确保了高度改良的农业景观中α蚁和β蚁的多样性
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pecon.2022.08.001
Kelley Rita Przybyszewski , Ricardo Eduardo Vicente , José Victor Alves Ferreira , Mônica Josene Barbosa Pereira , Thiago Junqueira Izzo , Danielle Storck-Tonon

To preserve biodiversity, the Brazilian law postulates that rural properties must keep a percentage of native vegetation cover, denominated as “Legal Reserve” (LR). Recent political efforts are being made to disoblige the farmer to keep the LRs. In this study we evaluated the role of LRs in ensuring the ant biodiversity on LRs and soybean plantations. Ants were collected in 42 landscapes within Amazonian forests and Cerrado savannahs and the transition vegetation between them. In each landscape, sets of pitfall traps were placed in a paired design, in the Legal Reserve area and in the adjacent soybean cultivation matrix. As expected, the number of species was extremely lower on soybean plantations. Despite richness, we observed strong turnover between the LRs and plantations. The landscape types on which the Legal Reserve was inserted did not influence the number, but did influence the composition of species. Also, the similarity among samples decay with geographic distance only on LRs. Our results show the importance of the maintenance of Legal Reserve areas for the ants and associated biodiversity in agro-ecosystems. This fact reinforces the need to preserve the Legal Reserves as described in Brazilian law.

为了保护生物多样性,巴西法律规定,农村土地必须保留一定比例的原生植被覆盖,称为“法定保护区”(LR)。最近正在进行政治努力,以解除农民保留LRs的义务。在本研究中,我们评估了小蚁园在保证小蚁园和大豆种植园蚂蚁生物多样性方面的作用。在亚马逊森林和塞拉多大草原以及两者之间的过渡植被中的42个景观中收集了蚂蚁。在每个景观中,在法律保留区和相邻的大豆种植基质中,以成对的设计放置了几组陷阱。正如预期的那样,大豆种植园的物种数量非常少。尽管丰富,我们观察到LRs和人工林之间的强烈更替。设置法定保护区的景观类型对物种数量没有影响,但对物种组成有影响。此外,样本间的相似性仅在LRs上随地理距离而衰减。研究结果表明,在农业生态系统中,保护法定保护区对蚂蚁及其相关生物多样性具有重要意义。这一事实加强了巴西法律中所述的保留法定准备金的必要性。
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引用次数: 1
Landscape forest loss decreases bird diversity with strong negative impacts on forest species in a mountain region 景观森林的消失减少了山区鸟类多样性,对森林物种产生了强烈的负面影响
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pecon.2022.10.001
Fredy Vargas-Cárdenas , Víctor Arroyo-Rodríguez , Jose Carlos Morante-Filho , Jorge E. Schondube , Daniel M. Auliz-Ortiz , Eliane Ceccon

Understanding how biological communities respond to human-caused landscape disturbances is urgently needed to identify optimal spatial scenarios for preserving biodiversity in anthropogenic landscapes. Forest loss is increasingly cited as a major disturbance in these landscapes, but its impact on biodiversity in mountain regions with high endemism is not well understood. Here we evaluated how bird species diversity responds to forest loss in ‘La Montaña’ mountain region of Guerrero State, Mexico. We separately assessed the complete bird assemblage, and the diversity and spatial distribution of three different ecological groups (forest-specialists, habitat-generalists, and disturbance-adapted species) in the whole landscape mosaic. We found that the diversity of the complete assemblage decreased linearly with forest loss. However, species responses to forest loss differed among ecological groups, with the diversity of forest-specialist and habitat-generalist species increasing in more forested landscapes, and the diversity of disturbance-adapted species following the opposite pattern. Similarly, the proportion of sites occupied by forest-specialist birds decreased with forest loss, but site occupancy by habitat-generalist and disturbance-adapted birds was independent from forest cover. Our findings highlight that the optimal landscape scenarios for preserving bird biodiversity in general and forest species in particular, are those that maintain as much forest cover as possible.

迫切需要了解生物群落如何应对人为景观干扰,以确定在人为景观中保护生物多样性的最佳空间方案。森林损失越来越多地被认为是这些景观的主要干扰因素,但其对高地方性山区生物多样性的影响尚不清楚。在这里,我们评估了鸟类物种多样性对墨西哥格雷罗州' La Montaña '山区森林损失的响应。我们分别评估了整个景观马赛克中三个不同的生态类群(森林专种鸟、生境通种鸟和干扰适应鸟)的完整鸟类组合和多样性和空间分布。我们发现,随着森林的减少,完整组合的多样性呈线性下降。然而,物种对森林损失的反应在不同的生态组之间存在差异,在森林覆盖率更高的景观中,森林专门性物种和生境通用性物种的多样性增加,而适应干扰的物种的多样性则相反。同样,森林专门性鸟类占据的地点比例随着森林的减少而减少,但栖息地通用型和干扰适应型鸟类占据的地点与森林覆盖无关。我们的研究结果强调,保护鸟类生物多样性,特别是森林物种的最佳景观方案是保持尽可能多的森林覆盖。
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引用次数: 1
Assessing the impact of roadkill on the persistence of wildlife populations: A case study on the giant anteater 评估道路死亡对野生动物种群持久性的影响:以巨型食蚁兽为例
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pecon.2022.05.001
Fernando Ascensão , Arnaud L.J. Desbiez

Human activity is depleting biodiversity, and road networks are directly contributing to this trend due to roadkill. Nevertheless, few studies empirically estimated the impact of roadkill on wildlife populations. We integrated information on roadkill rates, population abundance, and animal movement to estimate the survival rates and the proportion of the population likely to be extirpated due to roadkill, using giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla) as model species. We then assessed the consequent implications of roadkill on population persistence using population viability analysis (PVA). The yearly survival rate of resident anteaters inhabiting road vicinity areas (0.78; CI: 0.62−0.97) was considerably lower than for those living far from roads (0.95; CI:0.86–1.00). The real number of anteaters being road-killed is considerably higher than the one recorded in previous studies (by a factor of 2.4), with ca. 20% of the population inhabiting road vicinity areas being road-killed every year. According to PVA results, roadkill can greatly affect the persistence of the giant anteater populations by reducing the growth rate down to null or negative values. This study confirms that roads have significant impacts on local population persistence. Such impacts are likely to be common to other large mammals, calling for effective mitigation to reduce roadkill rates.

人类活动正在耗尽生物多样性,道路网络直接导致了这一趋势。然而,很少有研究经验性地估计道路死亡对野生动物种群的影响。本文以巨食蚁兽(Myrmecophaga tridactyla)为模型物种,综合了道路捕杀率、种群丰度和动物运动等信息,估算了因道路捕杀而可能灭绝的种群比例和存活率。然后,我们利用种群生存力分析(PVA)评估了道路死亡对种群持久性的影响。居住在道路附近地区的食蚁兽年存活率(0.78;CI: 0.62 - 0.97)显著低于远离道路的人群(0.95;置信区间:0.86—-1.00)。在道路上被杀死的食蚁兽的实际数量远远高于之前的研究记录(2.4倍),每年约有20%居住在道路附近地区的食蚁兽被道路杀死。根据PVA的结果,路杀可以极大地影响巨食蚁兽种群的持久性,使其增长率降至零或负值。这项研究证实,道路对当地人口的持久性有重大影响。这种影响可能在其他大型哺乳动物身上也很常见,因此需要采取有效的缓解措施,以减少被公路撞死的几率。
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引用次数: 0
Conservation of forest cover in Mesoamerican biosphere reserves is associated with the increase of local non-farm occupation 中美洲生物圈保护区森林覆盖的保护与当地非农业占用的增加有关
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pecon.2022.03.006
Daniel Martín Auliz-Ortiz , Víctor Arroyo-Rodríguez , Eduardo Mendoza , Miguel Martínez-Ramos

Protected areas can prevent forest loss, but their effects on forest fragmentation and forest regrowth are poorly understood. Furthermore, the importance of protected areas in shaping these forest spatial changes may depend on different socioeconomic drivers (e.g. population size, distance to cities, proportion of local people working in non-farm occupation), but the empirical evidence on such dependence is very scarce. Here, we used contra factual technics to assess whether biosphere reserves (n = 19) in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot can reduce forest loss and fragmentation and promote forest regrowth during the period 2000–2020. We used satellite imagery and governmental data to assess the socioeconomic factors driving these changes. Particularly, using multimodel inference analysis, we tested whether higher non-farm occupation, combined with low demographic pressures, reduces forest loss and fragmentation and promotes forest regrowth. We found that reserves reduce forest loss and preserve less-fragmented configurations, however, they neither reduce fragmentation rate nor promote forest regrowth. Forest loss rate inside the reserves decreased as non-farm occupation enhanced and the density of rural settlements decreased. Therefore, promoting higher opportunities in non-farm economic activities and planning rural settlements distribution around reserves could help to increase the effectiveness of reserves for forest conservation.

保护区可以防止森林损失,但它们对森林破碎化和森林再生的影响了解甚少。此外,保护区在塑造这些森林空间变化方面的重要性可能取决于不同的社会经济驱动因素(如人口规模、与城市的距离、从事非农业职业的当地人口比例),但关于这种依赖的经验证据非常缺乏。本文采用反事实技术对2000-2020年中美洲生物多样性热点地区的生物圈保护区(n = 19)是否能减少森林损失和破碎化,促进森林再生进行了评价。我们使用卫星图像和政府数据来评估推动这些变化的社会经济因素。特别是,使用多模型推理分析,我们测试了较高的非农业职业,结合低人口压力,是否减少了森林损失和破碎化,并促进了森林的再生。研究发现,保护区减少了森林的损失,保留了较少破碎化的结构,但既没有降低破碎化率,也没有促进森林的再生。保护区内森林损失率随非农业占用的增加和农村居民点密度的降低而降低。因此,提高非农业经济活动的机会,规划保护区周围农村住区的分布,有助于提高保护区保护森林的有效性。
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引用次数: 1
Sailing into the past: Nautical charts reveal changes over 160 years in the largest reef complex in the South Atlantic Ocean 航行到过去:航海图揭示了160年来南大西洋最大的珊瑚礁群的变化
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pecon.2022.05.003
Carine O. Fogliarini , Guilherme O. Longo , Ronaldo B. Francini-Filho , Loren McClenachan , Mariana G. Bender

Coral reefs are in global decline due to unprecedented anthropogenic threats that have escalated and accumulated over decades to centuries. In order to assess the magnitude and drivers of changes on reefs, it is necessary to reconstruct the history of changes of these ecosystems over this longer time scale. We compiled and assessed historical records of naturalists that visited Abrolhos reefs over the last 202 years, and compared a 160-year-old nautical chart with modern charts to quantify losses in the spatial extent of coastal reefs in the Abrolhos Bank, Brazil. We found a 28% loss in the overall spatial extent of inshore reefs, with some areas experiencing declines up to 49% over the past 160 years. Such reefs with more dramatic changes (Guaratibas reefs) are the closest to the coast (∼7 km), where local impacts such as the past extraction of coral for lime since the 19th century, as well as increased coastal sedimentation and siltation due to deforestation are concentrated and that, combined, may have caused the observed decline. Collectively, this set of historical information captures coral reef changes over time, and helps update conservation and restoration goals for the Abrolhos reefs seascape.

由于几十年到几个世纪以来不断升级和积累的前所未有的人为威胁,珊瑚礁正在全球范围内减少。为了评估珊瑚礁变化的规模和驱动因素,有必要在更长的时间尺度上重建这些生态系统的变化历史。我们整理并评估了过去202年里博物学家访问Abrolhos珊瑚礁的历史记录,并将160年前的海图与现代海图进行了比较,以量化巴西Abrolhos滩沿海珊瑚礁空间范围的损失。我们发现,在过去的160年里,近海珊瑚礁的整体空间范围减少了28%,有些地区的降幅高达49%。这种变化更剧烈的珊瑚礁(瓜拉提巴斯珊瑚礁)离海岸最近(约7 公里),在那里,当地的影响,如19世纪以来提取珊瑚用于石灰,以及由于森林砍伐而增加的海岸沉积和淤积集中在一起,这些因素加在一起可能导致了观测到的下降。总的来说,这组历史信息捕捉了珊瑚礁随时间的变化,并有助于更新Abrolhos珊瑚礁海景的保护和恢复目标。
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引用次数: 5
Fire and flood: How the Pantanal ant communities respond to multiple disturbances? 火灾和洪水:潘塔纳尔蚂蚁群落如何应对多种干扰?
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pecon.2022.04.002
Filipe V. de Arruda , Fabrício B. Teresa , Viviane M.G. Layme , Ricardo E. Vicente , Flávio Camarota , Thiago J. Izzo

Disturbances are key events in ecological systems, strongly impacting biological communities. This study disentangles the effects of a chronic (flood) and acute (fire) disturbance to determine their interactive effects on ant species richness and composition at different temporal scales. For this, we sampled ground-dwelling ants with pitfall traps on native grasslands in the Pantanal wetland, one of the world's largest floodplains. We sampled ants ten days (short-term), one year (medium-term), and four years (long-term) after fire and at varying elevations (a surrogate for the time that these areas remain flooded). We found that fire was the dominant factor in determining ant community patterns in flooded areas. In the short-term, fire substantially changed species composition and increased species richness. However, these effects decreased at one year and disappeared after four years, demonstrating the ant community’s resilience. Elevation and, consequently, flooding, did not influence any measured parameter, indicating that the ant species are adapted to colonize other areas rapidly or survive in such flooded habitats. Our results suggest that Pantanal ant communities can recover from acute fire disturbances after some years. However, increasing fire frequency caused by global climatic changes and recent Brazilian environmental policy misconducts would probably compromise the observed resilience.

干扰是生态系统中的关键事件,对生物群落产生强烈影响。本研究分析了慢性(洪水)和急性(火灾)扰动的影响,以确定它们在不同时间尺度上对蚂蚁物种丰富度和组成的相互作用。为此,我们在潘塔纳尔湿地(世界上最大的洪泛平原之一)的原生草原上取样了带有陷阱的地栖蚂蚁。我们在火灾发生后的10天(短期)、1年(中期)和4年(长期)以及不同海拔(代替这些地区持续淹水的时间)对蚂蚁进行了采样。我们发现火是决定洪水地区蚂蚁群落模式的主要因素。短期内,火灾显著改变了物种组成,增加了物种丰富度。然而,这些影响在一年后下降,四年后消失,表明蚂蚁群落的弹性。因此,海拔和洪水对任何测量参数都没有影响,这表明蚂蚁物种适应迅速殖民其他地区或在这样的洪水栖息地中生存。我们的研究结果表明,潘塔纳尔蚂蚁群落可以在几年后从急性火灾干扰中恢复。然而,全球气候变化和巴西最近的环境政策不当导致的火灾频率增加可能会损害观察到的恢复力。
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引用次数: 4
Deforestation projections imply range-wide population decline for critically endangered Bornean orangutan 对森林砍伐的预测表明,极度濒危的婆罗洲猩猩的数量将全面下降
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pecon.2022.06.001
Maria Voigt , Hjalmar S. Kühl , Marc Ancrenaz , David Gaveau , Erik Meijaard , Truly Santika , Julie Sherman , Serge A. Wich , Florian Wolf , Matthew J. Struebig , Henrique M. Pereira , Isabel M.D. Rosa

Assessing where wildlife populations are at risk from future habitat loss is particularly important for land-use planning and avoiding biodiversity declines. Combining projections of future deforestation with species density information provides an improved way to anticipate such declines. Using the critically endangered Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) as a case study we applied a spatio-temporally explicit deforestation model to forest loss data from 2001 to 2017 and projected future impacts on orangutans to the 2030s. Our projections point to continued deforestation across the island, amounting to a potential loss of forest habitat for 26,200 orangutans. Populations currently persisting in forests gazetted for industrial timber and oil palm concessions, or unprotected forests outside of concessions, were projected to experience the worst losses within the next 15 years, amounting to 15,400 individuals. Our analysis indicates the importance of protecting orangutan habitat in plantation landscapes, maintaining protected areas and efforts to prevent the conversion of logged forests for the survival of highly vulnerable wildlife. The modeling framework could be expanded to other species with available density or occurrence data. Our findings highlight that species conservation should not only act on the current information, but also anticipate future changes to be effective.

评估野生动物种群在哪些地方面临未来栖息地丧失的风险,对于土地利用规划和避免生物多样性下降尤为重要。将对未来森林砍伐的预测与物种密度信息相结合,提供了一种预测这种下降的改进方法。以极度濒危的婆罗洲猩猩(Pongo pygmaeus)为例,我们对2001年至2017年的森林损失数据应用了一个时空明确的森林砍伐模型,并预测了到2030年代对猩猩的未来影响。我们的预测表明,整个岛屿持续的森林砍伐,相当于26,200只猩猩的森林栖息地的潜在损失。据预测,目前在工业木材和油棕特许经营的森林或特许经营以外未受保护的森林中生存的人口在今后15年内将遭受最严重的损失,达15 400人。我们的分析表明,在人工林景观中保护猩猩栖息地、维护保护区以及努力防止砍伐森林为高度脆弱的野生动物的生存而转变的重要性。建模框架可以扩展到其他有密度或发生数据的物种。我们的研究结果强调,物种保护不仅要根据当前的信息采取行动,而且要预测未来的变化。
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引用次数: 0
Natural grassland remnants in dynamic agricultural landscapes: identifying drivers of fragmentation 动态农业景观中的天然草地残余物:破碎化驱动因素识别
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pecon.2022.04.003
C. Ríos , F. Lezama , G. Rama , G. Baldi , S. Baeza

Grasslands have been subject to contraction and fragmentation processes worldwide, mainly due to their transformation into commercial tree plantations and agricultural lands. Identifying the remaining grasslands areas and the drivers of its fragmentation constitute an important step towards their appreciation, conservation and sustainability monitoring. The Eastern Plains of Uruguay constitute a region of recognized national and international conservation importance, but rice cultivation has spread extensively over the last 60 years, resulting in a strong transformation of its natural biomes. Our objectives were to map natural grasslands remnants in this complex landscape characterized by a high presence of different post-agricultural stages of vegetation; to quantify grassland fragmentation and its spatial variability in the landscape; and to identify the main drivers of the fragmentation process. We intersected a current supervised classification of the Eastern Plains of Uruguay (743,600 ha) with a mask of croplands from the previous ten years to discriminate grasslands remnants. We quantified the landscape fragmentation and described the relative contribution of different biophysical and anthropogenic factors in grasslands spatial configuration. Our results showed that natural grassland currently occupies only 21% of the Eastern Plains surface and it is in an advanced stage of fragmentation, comparable to that of the most historically transformed regions of the Rio de la Plata Grasslands. A few variables that determine the expansion of agriculture (large cadastral parcels size, high road network density and low topographical variation) drive the fragmentation process, relegating grassland to places with unfavorable characteristics for the development of rice cultivation.

在世界范围内,草地受到收缩和破碎化过程的影响,主要是由于它们向商业人工林和农业用地的转变。确定剩余草原地区及其破碎化的驱动因素是对草原的欣赏、保护和可持续性监测的重要一步。乌拉圭东部平原是一个公认的具有国家和国际保护重要性的地区,但在过去60年里,水稻种植广泛传播,导致其自然生物群落发生了巨大变化。我们的目标是在这个复杂的景观中绘制自然草地遗迹,其特征是不同农业后阶段的植被高度存在;量化草地破碎化及其景观空间变异性;并确定碎片化过程的主要驱动因素。我们将乌拉圭东部平原(743,600 ha)的现有监督分类与过去十年的农田掩蔽相交叉,以区分草地残留物。量化了草地景观破碎化程度,描述了不同生物物理因子和人为因子对草地空间格局的相对贡献。研究结果表明,目前东部平原的天然草地面积仅占总面积的21%,处于破碎化的后期阶段,与里约热内卢de la Plata草原中最具历史变化的地区相当。决定农业扩张的几个变量(地籍地面积大、道路网络密度高、地形变化小)推动了破碎化过程,将草地降至不利于水稻种植发展的地方。
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引用次数: 3
Human impact modulates chytrid fungus occurrence in amphibians in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest 人类影响调节巴西大西洋森林两栖动物中壶菌的发生
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pecon.2022.05.002
Janaína de Andrade Serrano , Luís Felipe Toledo , Lilian Patrícia Sales

Here, we investigate the influence of scale on different drivers influencing the occurrence of the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil. We used gridded values of proxies of the abiotic, biotic and anthropogenic components of landscapes where Bd infects amphibians. Building upon disease prevalence data obtained from a previous work, we fitted GLS multiple regression models using extracted values of the three predictors for each prevalence centroid in space, explicitly controlling for spatial autocorrelation among predictors. To test for the effect of scale on driving the macroecology of Bd infection, we performed tests at different spatial scales. We then used model selection procedures to evaluate the relative contribution of the different predictors on the occurrence of the fungus. The Human Footprint Index better explained a pathogenic species occurrence than largely studied biotic and abiotic factors (i.e., host species distribution and minimum monthly potential evapotranspiration). That effect was, however, not observed at landscape scale, where we found no difference among the relative influence of predictors. Our results indicate that human-mediated impacts on environments can be strong drivers of spread of infectious diseases on native faunas worldwide, thus, suggesting that anthropogenic landscapes may create favourable conditions for the occurrence of this and other infectious diseases.

在这里,我们研究了尺度对影响巴西大西洋森林中壶菌(Batrachochytrium dendroatidis, Bd)发生的不同驱动力的影响。我们使用了Bd感染两栖动物的景观的非生物、生物和人为成分的网格值。基于从先前的工作中获得的疾病患病率数据,我们使用三个预测因子的提取值对每个患病率质心在空间上拟合GLS多元回归模型,明确控制预测因子之间的空间自相关性。为了测试尺度对Bd感染宏观生态的驱动作用,我们在不同的空间尺度上进行了测试。然后,我们使用模型选择程序来评估不同预测因子对真菌发生的相对贡献。人类足迹指数比大量研究的生物和非生物因素(即宿主物种分布和最小月潜在蒸散量)更好地解释了病原物种的发生。然而,在景观尺度上没有观察到这种效应,在景观尺度上,我们发现预测因子的相对影响没有差异。我们的研究结果表明,人类介导的环境影响可能是传染病在全球本土动物中传播的强大驱动因素,因此,这表明人为景观可能为这种疾病和其他传染病的发生创造有利条件。
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Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation
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