Journal of Wine Economics最新文献

Can we predict fine wine and alcohol prices? Yes, but it depends on the forecasting horizon. We make this point by considering the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 and 50 Indices, the retail and wholesale alcohol prices in the United States for the period going from January 1992 to March 2022. We use rich and diverse datasets of economic, survey, and financial variables as potential price drivers and adopt several combination/dimension reduction techniques to extract the most relevant determinants. We build a comprehensive set of models and compare forecast performances across different selling levels and alcohol categories. We show that it is possible to predict fine wine prices for the 2-year horizon and retail/wholesale alcohol prices at horizons ranging from 1 month to 2 years. Our findings stress the importance of including consumer survey data and macroeconomic factors, such as international economic factors and developed markets equity risk factors, to enhance the precision of predictions of retail/wholesale (fine wine) prices.

The adoption of fungus-resistant grapevines may be a key strategy for substantially reducing fungicide use in pesticide-intensive viticulture. In a representative survey conducted among 436 grapevine growers in Switzerland, we elicited growers’ expected share of land devoted to fungus-resistant varieties in ten years. More specifically, using regression analyses, we explore the main predictors behind the stated adoption intentions. We find that one-third of new plantings in the next decade will be fungus-resistant varieties. As a result, the expected share of land devoted to fungus-resistant varieties in ten years is 27.4% (compared to 10.2% in 2022), thus increasing by 169%. Farmer- and farm characteristics explain most of the adoption dynamics, especially growers’ beneficial health perceptions about fungus-resistant varieties, which correlate positively with their expected land share devoted to these varieties. Moreover, non-organic grapevine growers are particularly likely to increase their land devoted to these varieties. These findings have important implications for agricultural policy and industry in Europe and elsewhere, facilitating the expected plantation increase using a policy mix tailored to farmer- and farm-level characteristics.

This paper investigates the market position of hard cider within the broader alcoholic beverage market. The first experiment identifies two distinct consumer segments—around 40% prioritize flavor attributes, while 53% prefer production information. The second experiment utilizes a basket- and expenditure-based choice experiment and a multiple discrete choice extreme value model to assess hard cider's standing among commonly consumed alcoholic beverages. Results reveal that hard cider is perceived as a complement to red and white wine but is independent from beer. The study suggests marketing hard cider in conjunction with white wine to capitalize on observed complementarity. Emphasizing the importance of addressing both consumer segments—those valuing flavor notes and those prioritizing production information—the research offers valuable insights for optimizing hard cider market strategies.

Consumers often struggle to make their choice in the highly diversified wine market. With wine being an experience good, consumers must rely on extrinsic characteristics, e.g., information on the label. Thus, easily available quality signals like consumer ratings have become an increasingly useful and widespread tool. Vivino is one of the largest online wine communities with over 60 million users, which have more than doubled since 2018. Hence, users have easy access to peer ratings, while established wine expert ratings are being challenged. This study analyzes data from Vivino to explore factors affecting consumer ratings at different price points, considering several wine attributes like geographical indications, brand, and the so-called “community effect.” We show that there is a small but significant community effect on wine's perceived quality related to its popularity among users of the Vivino community, as well as effects from specific wine attributes. Moreover, we estimate a hedonic quantile model on similar price ranges to compare the effect of the same regressors on wine prices. Results contribute to a better understanding of how different factors affect consumers’ wine evaluations, allowing to compare their effect on the “pure” consumer preference (i.e., consumer ratings) and market value.

The wine industry, considered to be male-dominated, has seen a growing share of women winemakers. Using a randomized online experiment, we investigate how the producer’s gender influences consumers’ willingness to pay for the wine. Gender can be identified either from the first name of the producer or from a gendered group of wine producers. Using a Tobit and a double-hurdle model, our results suggest that consumers’ willingness to pay is lower for wine produced by female winemaker groups. This reduction appears to be particularly pronounced when the consumer is male.

The development and expansion of wineries in Appalachian states in the United States over the past 20 years has received attention, while the study of non-wine product consumption in wineries has been very limited. Wineries increasingly include these non-wine products as complementary products in their marketing portfolio. This study analyzes the determinants of wine and non-wine spending among winery visitors in selected Northern Appalachian states, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee. We develop a market segmentation model and a random utility theory with an interval regression model. Results from 1,609 participants show that wine knowledge has a positive effect on local wine spending, and spending on non-wine products should not be underestimated for its overall contribution to the winery business. Our results suggest that wineries have the potential to boost store sales associated with non-wine products. Diversifying the product lines in wineries to include more non-wine products would be a useful marketing strategy.

This paper investigates the growth and clustering of craft breweries in New Jersey. We compiled a historical dataset from 1995 to 2020 that allows us to measure the degree of geographic clustering among craft breweries in New Jersey. The number of craft breweries in New Jersey grew 491% from 2012 to 2020 (from 22 to 130 craft breweries). An impetus for this growth was that New Jersey enacted legislation in 2012 that made opening and operating a craft brewery in the state more economically viable. Our analysis finds that craft breweries in New Jersey are clustering in specific parts of the state and that this is likely due to co-location benefits such as building a culture of craft beer that drives innovation, knowledge sharing, customer sharing, and a thicker labor market. While distinct craft beer clusters have formed in New Jersey, we find there is still significant opportunity for growth. Our analysis confirms this using data on planned craft brewery openings to measure changes in the size and density of clusters and where, in New Jersey, new clusters are likely to form.