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Communication‐Efficient Distributed Estimation of Causal Effects With High‐Dimensional Data 利用高维数据对因果效应进行通信效率高的分布式估计
IF 1.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: 10.1002/sta4.70006
Xiaohan Wang, Jiayi Tong, Sida Peng, Yong Chen, Yang Ning
We propose a communication‐efficient algorithm to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE), when the data are distributed across multiple sites and the number of covariates is possibly much larger than the sample size in each site. Our main idea is to calibrate the estimates of the propensity score and outcome models using some proper surrogate loss functions to approximately attain the desired covariate balancing property. We show that under possible model misspecification, our distributed covariate balancing propensity score estimator (disthdCBPS) can approximate the global estimator, obtained by pooling together the data from multiple sites, at a fast rate. Thus, our estimator remains consistent and asymptotically normal. In addition, when both the propensity score and the outcome models are correctly specified, the proposed estimator attains the semi‐parametric efficiency bound. We illustrate the empirical performance of the proposed method in both simulation and empirical studies.
我们提出了一种通信效率高的算法,用于估计平均治疗效果(ATE),前提是数据分布在多个地点,并且协变量的数量可能远远大于每个地点的样本量。我们的主要想法是使用一些适当的替代损失函数来校准倾向评分和结果模型的估计值,以近似达到所需的协变量平衡特性。我们的研究表明,在可能的模型失当情况下,我们的分布式协变量平衡倾向评分估计器(disthdCBPS)能以较快的速度逼近全局估计器,而全局估计器是通过汇集多个站点的数据而获得的。因此,我们的估计器保持了一致性和渐近正态性。此外,当倾向得分和结果模型都被正确指定时,所提出的估计器就能达到半参数效率约束。我们通过模拟和实证研究说明了所提方法的经验性能。
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引用次数: 0
A Joint Temporal Model for Hospitalizations and ICU Admissions Due to COVID‐19 in Quebec 魁北克 COVID-19 引起的住院和入住重症监护室的联合时间模型
IF 1.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1002/sta4.70000
Mariana Carmona‐Baez, Alexandra M. Schmidt, Shirin Golchi, David Buckeridge
Infectious respiratory diseases have been of interest in recent years for the great burden they place on health systems, for instance, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) that caused the global COVID‐19 pandemic. As many of these diseases might require hospitalization and even intensive care unit (ICU) admission, understanding the joint dynamics of hospitalizations and ICU admissions across time and different groups of the population remains of great importance. We aim to understand the joint evolution of hospital and ICU admissions given COVID‐19 test‐positive cases in the province of Quebec, Canada. We obtain the daily counts, by age group, on the number of confirmed COVID‐19 cases, the number of hospitalizations and the number of ICU admissions due to COVID‐19, from March 2020 through October 2021 in Quebec. We propose a joint Bayesian generalized dynamic linear model for the number of hospitalizations and ICU admissions to study their temporal trends and possible associations with sex and age group. Additionally, we use transfer functions to investigate if there is a memory effect of the number of cases on hospitalizations across the different age groups. The results suggest that there is a clear distinction in the patterns of hospitalizations and ICU admissions across age groups and that the number of cases has a persistent effect on the rate of hospitalization.
近年来,呼吸道传染病因其给卫生系统带来的巨大负担而备受关注,例如导致 COVID-19 全球大流行的严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒 2(SARS-CoV-2)。由于许多这类疾病可能需要住院治疗,甚至需要住进重症监护室(ICU),因此了解不同时期和不同人群住院治疗和住进重症监护室的共同动态仍然非常重要。我们旨在了解加拿大魁北克省 COVID-19 检测呈阳性病例住院和入住重症监护室的共同演变情况。我们获得了 2020 年 3 月至 2021 年 10 月期间魁北克省按年龄组划分的 COVID-19 确诊病例数、住院人数和因 COVID-19 而入住重症监护室人数的每日计数。我们针对住院人数和重症监护室收治人数提出了一个贝叶斯广义动态线性联合模型,以研究它们的时间趋势以及与性别和年龄组可能存在的关联。此外,我们还使用转移函数来研究病例数对不同年龄组住院人数是否存在记忆效应。结果表明,不同年龄组的住院和入住重症监护室的模式有明显区别,病例数对住院率有持续影响。
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引用次数: 0
Bitcoin Price Prediction Using Deep Bayesian LSTM With Uncertainty Quantification: A Monte Carlo Dropout–Based Approach 使用具有不确定性量化的深度贝叶斯 LSTM 预测比特币价格:基于蒙特卡罗剔除的方法
IF 1.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1002/sta4.70001
Masoud Muhammed Hassan
Bitcoin, being one of the most triumphant cryptocurrencies, is gaining increasing popularity online and is being used in a variety of transactions. Recently, research on Bitcoin price predictions is receiving more attention, and researchers have investigated the various state‐of‐the‐art machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models to predict Bitcoin price. However, despite these models providing promising predictions, they consistently exhibit uncertainty, which cannot be adequately quantified by classical ML models alone. Motivated by the enormous success of applying Bayesian approaches in several disciplines of ML and DL, this study aims to use Bayesian methods alongside Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) to predict the closing Bitcoin price and consequently measure the uncertainty of the prediction model. Specifically, we adopted the Monte Carlo dropout (MC‐Dropout) method with the Bayesian LSTM model to quantify the epistemic uncertainty of the model's predictions and provided confidence intervals for the predicted outputs. Experimental results showed that the proposed model is efficient and outperforms other state‐of‐the‐art models in terms of root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and R2. Thus, we believe that these models may assist the investors and traders in making critical decisions based on short‐term predictions of Bitcoin price. This study illustrates the potential benefits of utilizing Bayesian DL approaches in time series analysis to improve data prediction accuracy and reliability.
比特币作为最成功的加密货币之一,在网上越来越受欢迎,并被用于各种交易。最近,有关比特币价格预测的研究受到越来越多的关注,研究人员研究了各种最先进的机器学习(ML)和深度学习(DL)模型来预测比特币价格。然而,尽管这些模型提供了有前景的预测,但它们始终表现出不确定性,而这种不确定性仅靠经典的 ML 模型是无法充分量化的。贝叶斯方法在多个 ML 和 DL 学科中的应用取得了巨大成功,受此激励,本研究旨在使用贝叶斯方法和长短期记忆(LSTM)来预测比特币收盘价格,从而测量预测模型的不确定性。具体而言,我们采用蒙特卡罗剔除(MC-Dropout)方法与贝叶斯 LSTM 模型相结合,量化模型预测的认识不确定性,并提供预测输出的置信区间。实验结果表明,所提出的模型是高效的,在均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和 R2 方面都优于其他最先进的模型。因此,我们相信这些模型可以帮助投资者和交易者根据比特币价格的短期预测做出关键决策。本研究说明了在时间序列分析中利用贝叶斯 DL 方法提高数据预测准确性和可靠性的潜在好处。
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引用次数: 0
Novel Closed‐Form Point Estimators for a Weighted Exponential Family Derived From Likelihood Equations 从似然方程推导出的加权指数族新闭式点估计器
IF 1.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1002/sta4.723
Roberto Vila, Eduardo Nakano, Helton Saulo
In this paper, we propose and investigate closed‐form point estimators for a weighted exponential family. We also develop a bias‐reduced version of these proposed closed‐form estimators through bootstrap methods. Estimators are assessed using a Monte Carlo simulation, revealing favourable results for the proposed bootstrap bias‐reduced estimators. We illustrate the proposed methodology with the use of two real data sets.
在本文中,我们提出并研究了加权指数族的闭式点估算器。我们还通过自举法开发了这些闭式估计器的减偏版本。我们使用蒙特卡罗模拟对估计器进行了评估,结果表明所提出的自举减偏估计器效果良好。我们利用两个真实数据集说明了所提出的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Exact interval estimation for three parameters subject to false positive misclassification 受假阳性误分类影响的三个参数的精确区间估计
IF 1.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1002/sta4.717
Shuiyun Lu, Weizhen Wang, Tianfa Xie
SummaryBinary data subject to one type of misclassification exist in various fields. It is collected in a double‐sampling scheme that includes a gold standard test and a fallible test. The main parameter of interest for this type of data is the positive probability of the gold standard test. Existing intervals are unreliable because the given nominal level is not achieved. In this paper, we construct an exact interval by inverting the E+M score tests and improve it by the general ‐function method. We find that the total length of the improved interval is shorter than the exact intervals that are also the improved intervals when we apply the ‐function to several existing approximate intervals, including the score and Bayesian intervals. Therefore, it is recommended for practice. We are also interested in two other parameters: —the difference between the two positive rates for the fallible and gold standard tests—and —the false positive rate for the fallible test. To the best of our knowledge, the research on these two parameters is limited. For , we find that any interval for can be converted to an interval for . So, the interval converted from the aforementioned recommended interval for is recommended for inferring . For , the improved interval by the ‐function method over the E+M score interval is derived. We use an example to illustrate how the intervals are computed and provide a real data analysis.
摘要在各个领域都存在一种误分类的二进制数据。这些数据是通过双重抽样方案收集的,其中包括金标准检验和易错检验。这类数据的主要参数是金标准检验的正概率。现有的区间是不可靠的,因为无法达到给定的名义水平。在本文中,我们通过倒置 E+M 分数检验构建了一个精确区间,并通过一般-函数方法对其进行了改进。我们发现,当我们对现有的几个近似区间(包括分数区间和贝叶斯区间)应用-函数时,改进区间的总长度比精确区间短,而精确区间也是改进区间。因此,建议在实践中使用。我们还对另外两个参数感兴趣:"易错检验 "和 "金标准检验 "的两个阳性率之差和 "易错检验 "的假阳性率。据我们所知,有关这两个参数的研究十分有限。对于 ,我们发现任何区间都可以转换为 。因此,从上述推荐的区间为转换而来的区间被推荐用于推断......。对于 ,通过-函数法对 E+M 得分区间的改进区间得出。我们用一个例子来说明如何计算区间,并提供实际数据分析。
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引用次数: 0
Decorrelated nearest shrunken centroids for tensor data 张量数据的相关最近缩减中心点
IF 1.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1002/sta4.720
Shaokang Ren, Munwon Yang, Qing Mai
The nearest shrunken centroids (NSC) method is an efficient and accurate classifier. However, it is incapable of modelling correlation among predictors. Moreover, many contemporary datasets have tensor predictors that cannot be directly handled by NSC. We tackle these challenges by proposing a new distance‐based classifier, tensor decorrelated NSC (TDNSC). TDNSC leverages the popular separable covariance structure on tensor data to decorrelate data and allow easy application of NSC afterwards. Unlike existing tensor classifiers that often rely on complicated iterative algorithms, TDNSC has analytical solutions. The theoretical properties and empirical results suggest that TDNSC is a promising method for tensor classification.
最近缩减中心点(NSC)方法是一种高效、准确的分类器。然而,它无法模拟预测因子之间的相关性。此外,许多当代数据集的张量预测因子无法直接用 NSC 方法处理。为了应对这些挑战,我们提出了一种新的基于距离的分类器--张量装饰相关 NSC(TDNSC)。TDNSC 利用张量数据上流行的可分离协方差结构来对数据进行装饰相关,从而方便之后的 NSC 应用。与通常依赖复杂迭代算法的现有张量分类器不同,TDNSC 具有解析解。理论特性和实证结果表明,TDNSC 是一种很有前途的张量分类方法。
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引用次数: 0
A novel time‐varying coefficient Poisson difference model driven by observation 观测驱动的新型时变系数泊松差分模型
IF 1.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: 10.1002/sta4.721
Ye Liu, Dehui Wang
This paper studies a novel time‐varying coefficient integer‐valued time series model driven by observation. The model is suitable for modeling negative integer‐valued time series based on the Poisson difference distribution and extended binomial thinning operator. Main methods used to estimate the parameters are the conditional least squares (CLS) and conditional maximum likelihood (CML) methods. This paper also discusses the consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimation results. Likelihood ratio tests are employed to examine the existence of covariate and observation. Numerical simulations are conducted to verify the accuracy and stability of the model. Finally, a real data application is presented to demonstrate the usefulness and adaptability of this newly proposed model.
本文研究了一种由观测驱动的新型时变系数整数值时间序列模型。该模型基于泊松差分分布和扩展二叉稀疏算子,适用于负整数值时间序列建模。用于估计参数的主要方法是条件最小二乘法(CLS)和条件极大似然法(CML)。本文还讨论了估计结果的一致性和渐近正态性。本文采用似然比检验来检验协变量和观测值的存在性。通过数值模拟来验证模型的准确性和稳定性。最后,介绍了一个真实数据应用,以证明这一新提出模型的实用性和适应性。
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引用次数: 0
A spectral approach for the dynamic Bradley–Terry model 动态布拉德利-特里模型的光谱方法
IF 1.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1002/sta4.722
Xinyu Tian, Jian Shi, Xiaotong Shen, Kai Song
SummaryThe dynamic ranking, due to its increasing importance in many applications, is becoming crucial, especially with the collection of voluminous time‐dependent data. One such application is sports statistics, where dynamic ranking aids in forecasting the performance of competitive teams, drawing on historical and current data. Despite its usefulness, predicting and inferring rankings pose challenges in environments necessitating time‐dependent modelling. This paper introduces a spectral ranker called Kernel Rank Centrality, designed to rank items based on pairwise comparisons over time. The ranker operates via kernel smoothing in the Bradley–Terry model, utilising a Markov chain model. Unlike the maximum likelihood approach, the spectral ranker is nonparametric, demands fewer model assumptions and computations and allows for real‐time ranking. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the ranker by applying an innovative group inverse technique, resulting in a uniform and precise entrywise expansion. This result allows us to devise a new inferential method for predictive inference, previously unavailable in existing approaches. Our numerical examples showcase the ranker's utility in predictive accuracy and constructing an uncertainty measure for prediction, leveraging data from the National Basketball Association (NBA). The results underscore our method's potential compared with the gold standard in sports, the Arpad Elo rating system.
摘要 动态排名在许多应用中的重要性与日俱增,尤其是随着大量时间相关数据的收集,动态排名变得至关重要。其中一个应用是体育统计,动态排名有助于利用历史和当前数据预测竞争团队的表现。尽管动态排名非常有用,但在需要建立随时间变化的模型的环境中,预测和推断排名是一项挑战。本文介绍了一种名为 "核排名中心性"(Kernel Rank Centrality)的频谱排名器,旨在根据随时间变化的成对比较对项目进行排名。该排序器利用马尔可夫链模型,通过 Bradley-Terry 模型中的核平滑进行排序。与最大似然法不同的是,频谱排序器是非参数法,对模型假设和计算的要求较低,并允许实时排序。我们通过应用创新的分组反演技术,建立了排序器的渐近分布,从而实现了统一而精确的条目式扩展。这一结果使我们能够为预测推理设计出一种新的推理方法,这是现有方法所不具备的。我们的数字示例利用美国国家篮球协会(NBA)的数据,展示了排名器在预测准确性和构建预测不确定性度量方面的实用性。结果表明,与体育界的黄金标准--阿帕德-埃洛评级系统相比,我们的方法更具潜力。
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引用次数: 0
A non‐stationary factor copula model for non‐Gaussian spatial data 非高斯空间数据的非平稳因子共轭模型
IF 1.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1002/sta4.715
Sagnik Mondal, Pavel Krupskii, Marc G. Genton
We introduce a new copula model for non‐stationary replicated spatial data. It is based on the assumption that a common factor exists that controls the joint dependence of all the observations from the spatial process. As a result, our proposal can model tail dependence and tail asymmetry, unlike the Gaussian copula model. Moreover, we show that the new model can cover a full range of dependence between tail quadrant independence and tail dependence. Although the log‐likelihood of the model can be obtained in a simple form, we discuss its numerical computational issues and ways to approximate it for drawing inference. Using the estimated copula model, the spatial process can be interpolated at locations where it is not observed. We apply the proposed model to temperature data over the western part of Switzerland, and we compare its performance with that of its stationary version and with the Gaussian copula model.
我们为非平稳复制空间数据引入了一种新的 copula 模型。它基于这样一个假设,即存在一个共同因子来控制空间过程中所有观测值的共同依赖性。因此,与高斯共线模型不同,我们的建议可以对尾部依赖性和尾部不对称进行建模。此外,我们还证明了新模型可以涵盖尾象限独立性和尾部依赖性之间的全部依赖关系。虽然该模型的对数似然可以用简单的形式得到,但我们讨论了其数值计算问题和近似推断的方法。利用估计的 copula 模型,可以在未观测到空间过程的位置对空间过程进行插值。我们将所提出的模型应用于瑞士西部的气温数据,并将其性能与其静态版本和高斯 copula 模型进行了比较。
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引用次数: 0
Empowering collaborative statisticians: The impact of the American Statistical Association's Pathways to Promotion Committee 增强合作统计学家的能力:美国统计协会晋升之路委员会的影响
IF 1.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1002/sta4.716
Margaret R. Stedman, Salem Dehom, Mario A. Davidson, Li Zhang, Robert H. Podolsky, Ryan T. Pohlig, Todd Coffey
Members of the ASA's Section on Statistical Consulting established the Pathways to Promotion Committee in 2021 to provide guidance and support for navigating a career as a collaborative statistician. In three years of existence, the Committee has produced seven webinars on relevant topics, each attended by more than one hundred participants. Committee members have given four oral presentations, organized three roundtables, led multiple discussions at ASA meetings and published four articles. These efforts have inspired, created and facilitated new connections for collaborative statisticians who feel isolated in their career path. This paper describes the formation and development of the Committee, reports its impact on the community of collaborative statisticians and discusses potential future directions.
美国统计学会统计咨询分会的成员于 2021 年成立了晋升之路委员会,为协作统计员的职业生涯提供指导和支持。委员会成立三年来,已就相关主题举办了七次网络研讨会,每次都有一百多人参加。委员会成员做了四次口头报告,组织了三次圆桌会议,在 ASA 会议上主持了多次讨论,并发表了四篇文章。这些努力启发、创建并促进了在职业道路上感到孤立的合作统计人员建立新的联系。本文介绍了委员会的成立和发展,报告了委员会对协作统计学家社区的影响,并讨论了未来的潜在发展方向。
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引用次数: 0
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