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Spatial correlates of COVID-19 first wave across continental Portugal. 葡萄牙大陆第一波COVID-19的空间相关性
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-23 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1073
Bruno Barbosa, Melissa Silva, César Capinha, Ricardo A C Garcia, Jorge Rocha

The first case of COVID-19 in continental Portugal was documented on the 2nd of March 2020 and about seven months later more than 75 thousand infections had been reported. Although several factors correlate significantly with the spatial incidence of COVID-19 worldwide, the drivers of spatial incidence of this virus remain poorly known and need further exploration. In this study, we analyse the spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 incidence in the at the municipality level and test for significant relationships between these patterns and environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and human mobility factors to identify the mains drivers of COVID-19 incidence across time and space. We used a generalized liner mixed model, which accounts for zero inflated cases and spatial autocorrelation to identify significant relationships between the spatiotemporal incidence and the considered set of driving factors. Some of these relationships were particularly consistent across time, including the 'percentage of employment in services'; 'average time of commuting using individual transportation'; 'percentage of employment in the agricultural sector'; and 'average family size'. Comparing the preventive measures in Portugal (e.g., restrictions on mobility and crowd around) with the model results clearly show that COVID-19 incidence fluctuates as those measures are imposed or relieved. This shows that our model can be a useful tool to help decision-makers in defining prevention and/or mitigation policies.

葡萄牙大陆的第一例COVID-19病例于2020年3月2日被记录在案,大约7个月后,报告了超过7.5万例感染。尽管有几个因素与全球COVID-19的空间发病率显著相关,但该病毒空间发病率的驱动因素仍然知之甚少,需要进一步探索。在这项研究中,我们分析了2019冠状病毒病发病率在城市层面的时空格局,并检验了这些格局与环境、社会经济、人口和人口流动因素之间的显著关系,以确定跨时间和空间的COVID-19发病率的主要驱动因素。我们使用了一个广义线性混合模型,该模型考虑了零膨胀情况和空间自相关,以确定时空发生率与所考虑的驱动因素之间的显著关系。其中一些关系在不同时期特别一致,包括“服务业就业百分比”;“使用个人交通工具上下班的平均时间”;“农业部门就业百分比”;以及“平均家庭规模”。将葡萄牙的预防措施(例如限制流动和人群聚集)与模型结果进行比较,清楚地表明,COVID-19的发病率随着这些措施的实施或解除而波动。这表明,我们的模型可以成为帮助决策者确定预防和/或缓解政策的有用工具。
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引用次数: 1
Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of births in Pernambuco Brazil. COVID-19大流行对巴西伯南布哥省出生人数的影响。
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-15 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1069
Heitor Victor Veiga Da Costa, Cristine Vieira do Bonfim, Wilson Fusco, Morvan de Melo Moreira, Fernando Maciano de Paula Neto

This study aimed at analysing the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the time series and spatial patterns of live births in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil, from 2010 to 2021. This is an ecological study that applied intervention analysis in time series, with the goal to identify how projected data behaved in relation to observed data in the months December 2020 to November 2021, i.e. months representing conceptions from March2020 to April 2021. For the state of Pernambuco, a discrepancy up to +5.7% was found between the observed and projected data, while the respective difference for the São Francisco mesoregion showed the opposite trend with maximum discrepancy of -9%. The results did not indicate a clear change in the number of live births but supported the expected continuation of the downward trend of the previous years. Considering the importance of the number of live births in the context of demography, economy and public health, monitoring must be maintained to analyse the possible future impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on live birth projections.

本研究旨在分析2019冠状病毒病大流行对2010年至2021年巴西伯南布哥州活产时间序列和空间格局的潜在影响。这是一项生态研究,在时间序列中应用了干预分析,目的是确定2020年12月至2021年11月(即代表2020年3月至2021年4月概念的月份)的预测数据与观测数据之间的关系。对于伯南布哥州,观测数据和预测数据之间的差异高达+5.7%,而旧金山中地区的各自差异显示相反的趋势,最大差异为-9%。调查结果并未显示活产人数有明显变化,但证实预期前几年的下降趋势将继续下去。考虑到活产数量在人口、经济和公共卫生背景下的重要性,必须保持监测,以分析COVID-19大流行未来可能对活产预测的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Use of soil moisture active passive satellite data and WorldClim 2.0 data to predict the potential distribution of visceral leishmaniasis and its vector Lutzomyia longipalpis in Sao Paulo and Bahia states, Brazil. 利用土壤湿度主动-被动卫星数据和WorldClim 2.0数据预测巴西圣保罗州和巴伊亚州内脏利什曼病及其媒介长须Lutzomyia的潜在分布。
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-08 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1095
M. M. Rodgers, E. Fonseca, P. Nieto, J. Malone, J. Luvall, J. McCarroll, R. Avery, M. Bavia, R. Guimarães, Xue Wen, M. M. N. Silva, D. D. M. T. Carneiro, L. Cardim
Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease transmitted by Lutzomyia longipalpis, a sand fly widely distributed in Brazil. Despite efforts to strengthen national control programs reduction in incidence and geographical distribution of VL in Brazil has not yet been successful; VL is in fact expanding its range in newly urbanized areas. Ecological niche models (ENM) for use in surveillance and response systems may enable more effective operational VL control by mapping risk areas and elucidation of eco-epidemiologic risk factors. ENMs for VL and Lu. longipalpis were generated using monthly WorldClim 2.0 data (30-year climate normal, 1-km spatial resolution) and monthly soil moisture active passive (SMAP) satellite L4 soil moisture data. SMAP L4 Global 3-hourly 9-km EASE-Grid Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture Geophysical Data V004 were obtained for the first image of day 1 and day 15 (0:00-3:00 hour) of each month. ENM were developed using MaxEnt software to generate risk maps based on an algorithm for maximum entropy. The jack-knife procedure was used to identify the contribution of each variable to model performance. The three most meaningful components were used to generate ENM distribution maps by ArcGIS 10.6. Similar patterns of VL and vector distribution were observed using SMAP as compared to WorldClim 2.0 models based on temperature and precipitation data or water budget. Results indicate that direct Earth-observing satellite measurement of soil moisture by SMAP can be used in lieu of models calculated from classical temperature and precipitation climate station data to assess VL risk.
内脏利什曼病(VL)是一种被忽视的热带疾病,由广泛分布于巴西的沙蝇——长须狐尾虫传播。尽管努力加强国家控制计划,但巴西VL发病率和地理分布的减少尚未成功;事实上,VL正在新城市化地区扩大其范围。用于监测和响应系统的生态位模型(ENM)可以通过绘制风险区域和阐明生态流行病学风险因素来实现更有效的VL控制。VL和Lu.longipalpis的ENM是使用WorldClim 2.0月度数据(30年气候正常,1公里空间分辨率)和土壤湿度主动-被动(SMAP)卫星L4月度土壤湿度数据生成的。SMAP L4全球3小时9公里EASE网格表面和根区土壤水分地球物理数据V004是为每月第1天和第15天(0:00-3:00小时)的第一张图像获得的。ENM是使用MaxEnt软件开发的,用于基于最大熵算法生成风险图。千斤顶-刀具程序用于确定每个变量对模型性能的贡献。ArcGIS 10.6使用三个最有意义的组件生成ENM分布图。与基于温度和降水数据或水量预算的WorldClim 2.0模型相比,使用SMAP观察到VL和矢量分布的相似模式。结果表明,SMAP对土壤湿度的直接地球观测卫星测量可以代替根据经典温度和降水气候站数据计算的模型来评估VL风险。
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引用次数: 2
Spatial epidemiology and meteorological risk factors of COVID-19 in Fars Province, Iran. 伊朗法尔斯省新冠肺炎的空间流行病学和气象危险因素。
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-08 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1065
M. Zare, A. Semati, A. Mirahmadizadeh, Abdulrasool Hemmati, M. Ebrahimi
This study aimed at detecting space-time clusters of COVID-19 cases in Fars Province, Iran and at investigating their potential association with meteorological factors, such as temperature, precipitation and wind velocity. Time-series data including 53,554 infected people recorded in 26 cities from 18 February to 30 September 2020 together with 5876 meteorological records were subjected to the analysis. Applying a significance level of P<0.05, the analysis of space-time distribution of COVID-19 resulted in nine significant outbreaks within the study period. The most likely cluster occurred from 27 March to 13 July 2020 and contained 11% of the total cases with eight additional, secondary clusters. We found that the COVID-19 incidence rate was affected by high temperature (OR=1.64; 95% CI: 1.44-1.87), while precipitation and wind velocity had less effect (OR=0.84; 95% CI: 0.75-0.89 and OR=0.27; 95% CI: 0.14-0.51), respectively.
这项研究旨在检测伊朗法尔斯省新冠肺炎病例的时空集群,并调查其与温度、降水和风速等气象因素的潜在关联。对2020年2月18日至9月30日26个城市记录的53554名感染者以及5876份气象记录的时间序列数据进行了分析。应用显著性水平的P<0.05,新冠肺炎的时空分布分析导致研究期间发生了9起显著疫情。最有可能的集群发生在2020年3月27日至7月13日,占总病例的11%,另有8个次级集群。我们发现新冠肺炎发病率受高温影响(OR=1.64;95%CI:1.44-1.87),而降水和风速的影响较小(OR=0.84;95%CI:0.75-0.89和OR=0.27;95%CI:0.14-0.51)。
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引用次数: 0
There is more to satellite imagery than meets the eye. 卫星图像比我们看到的要丰富得多。
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-31 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1106
R. Bergquist, J. Malone
Not available.
不可用。
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引用次数: 0
Post-traumatic stress in people from the interior drylands of the Maule region, Chile in the context of climate change. 在气候变化的背景下,智利毛勒地区内陆旱地的人们遭受创伤后的压力。
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-18 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1045
Cristián Cáceres, Marcelo Leiva-Bianchi, Yony Ormazábal, Carlos Mena, Juan Carlos Cantillana
Progressive changes in local environmental scenarios, accelerated by global climate change, can negatively affect the mental health of people who inhabit these areas. The magnitude of these effects may vary depending on the socioeconomic conditions of people and the characteristics of the environment, so certain territories can be more vulnerable than others. In this context, the present study aimed to geographically analyse the levels of psychosocial impact and the types of disruptive responses related to the new territorial scenarios caused by climate change in the coastal drylands of the Maule region, Chile. For this purpose, 223 people from two communes (Curepto and Pencahue) were psychosocially evaluated for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) together with a survey of the prevailing sociodemographic and socioeconomic conditions in relation to the environmental variables of the territory. All information was georeferenced, stored within an ArcGIS Desktop geographic information system (GIS) and then investigated by application of contingency tables, ANOVA and local clustering analysis using SSP statistical software. The results indicated a high level of PTSD in the population, with significant differences related to age and education as well as employment conditions and income. The spatial results showed high PTSD values in the communal capital of Curepto in the central agricultural valley near the estuary of the local river, while the existence of coldspots was observed in the central valley of the Pencahue commune. It was concluded that proximity to population centres and surface water sources played the greatest role for the development of PTSD.
全球气候变化加速了当地环境情景的渐进变化,可能会对居住在这些地区的人们的心理健康产生负面影响。这些影响的程度可能因人们的社会经济条件和环境特征而异,因此某些地区可能比其他地区更脆弱。在这方面,本研究旨在从地理上分析气候变化在智利毛勒地区沿海旱地造成的新的领土情景所产生的心理社会影响的程度和破坏性反应的类型。为此,对来自两个社区(Curepto和Pencahue)的223人进行了创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)的心理社会评估,并对与该地区环境变量相关的主要社会人口和社会经济状况进行了调查。所有信息都进行了地理参考,存储在ArcGIS桌面地理信息系统(GIS)中,然后通过应用列联表、方差分析和使用SSP统计软件的局部聚类分析进行调查。研究结果表明,人群中PTSD水平很高,与年龄、教育、就业条件和收入有关的显著差异。空间结果显示,在当地河流河口附近的中央农业山谷中,Curepto社区首府的PTSD值很高,而在Pencahue社区的中央山谷中观察到冷斑的存在。得出的结论是,靠近人口中心和地表水源对创伤后应激障碍的发展起着最大的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Clusters of malaria cases at sub-district level in endemic area in Java Island, Indonesia. 印度尼西亚爪哇岛流行区分区一级的聚集性疟疾病例。
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-18 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1048
D. Rejeki, Sri Nurlaela, Devi Octaviana, Bangun Wijayanto, Solikhah Solikhah
Malaria remains one of the essential public health problems in Indonesia. The year 2015 was originally set as the elimination target in Java Island, but there are still several regencies on Java reporting malaria cases. Spatial technology helps determine local variations in malaria transmission, control risk areas and assess the outcome of interventions. Information on distribution patterns of malaria at the sub-district level, presented as spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal data, is vital in planning control interventions. Information on malaria transmission at the sub-district level in three regencies in Java (Banyumas, Kebumen, and Purbalingga) was collected from the Agency for Regional Development (Bappeda), the Population and Civil Registration Agency (Disdukcapil) and Statistics Indonesia (BPS). Global spatial autocorrelation and space-time clustering was investigated together with purely spatial and purely temporal analyses using geographical information systems (GIS) by ArcGis 10.2 and SaTScan 8.0 to detect areas at high risk of malaria. Our results show that malaria was spatially clustered in the study area in central Java, in particular in the Banyumas and Purbalingga regencies. The temporal analysis revealed that malaria clusters predominantly appeared in the period January-April. The results of the spatiotemporal analysis showed that there was one most likely malaria cluster and three secondary clusters in southern central Java. The most likely cluster was located in Purbalingga Regency covering one sub-district and remaining from the beginning of 2016 to the end of 2018. The approach used can assist the setting of resource priorities to control and eliminate malaria.
疟疾仍然是印度尼西亚重要的公共卫生问题之一。2015年最初被设定为爪哇岛的消灭目标,但爪哇岛仍有几个县报告了疟疾病例。空间技术有助于确定疟疾传播的地方差异,控制风险地区,并评估干预措施的结果。分区一级疟疾分布模式的信息,以空间、时间和时空数据的形式呈现,对规划控制干预措施至关重要。爪哇三个县(Banyumas、Kebumen和Purbalingga)的分区一级疟疾传播信息是从区域发展局(Bapeda)、人口和民事登记局(Disdukcapil)和印度尼西亚统计局(BPS)收集的。ArcGis 10.2和SaTScan 8.0使用地理信息系统(GIS)对全球空间自相关和时空聚类以及纯空间和纯时间分析进行了研究,以检测疟疾高风险地区。我们的研究结果表明,疟疾在爪哇中部的研究区域,特别是在Banyumas和Purbalingga县,在空间上是聚集的。时间分析显示,疟疾集群主要出现在1-4月期间。时空分析结果表明,爪哇中南部有一个最有可能的疟疾集群和三个次级集群。最有可能的集群位于Purbalingga Regency,覆盖一个街道,从2016年初一直持续到2018年底。所采用的方法有助于确定控制和消除疟疾的资源优先事项。
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引用次数: 6
Spatial analysis of stunting determinants in 514 Indonesian districts/cities: Implications for intervention and setting of priority. 514个印度尼西亚地区/城市发育迟缓决定因素的空间分析:对干预和确定优先事项的影响。
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-17 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1055
T. Eryando, Tiopan Sipahutar, Meiwita Paulina Budhiharsana, K. Siregar, Muhammad Nur Aidi, Minarto Minarto, D. Utari, Martya Rahmaniati, H. Hendarwan
While the national prevalence of stunting in Indonesia has decreased, the level remains high in many districts/cities and there is significant variation. This ecological study employed aggregated data from the Basic Health Research Report and the District/City Poverty Data from 2018. We investigated the determinants of stunting prevalence at the district/city level, including autocorrelation applying the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model. The analyses revealed stunting prevalence above the national average in 282 districts/cities (54.9%), i.e. ≥30% in 297 districts/cities (57.8%) and ≥40% in 91 districts/cities (17.7%). Autocorrelation was found between Sumatra, Java, Sulawesi as well as Bali, East Nusa Tenggara and West Nusa Tenggara (Bali NTT NTB). The SAR modelling revealed the following variables with significant impact on the stunting prevalence in various parts of the country: closet defecation, hand washing, at least four antenatal care visits during pregnancy, poverty, immunisation and supplementary food for children under 5 years.
尽管印度尼西亚全国发育迟缓的发病率有所下降,但许多地区/城市的发病率仍然很高,而且差异很大。这项生态研究采用了《基础健康研究报告》和2018年地区/城市贫困数据的汇总数据。我们研究了地区/城市层面发育迟缓患病率的决定因素,包括应用空间自回归(SAR)模型的自相关。分析显示,282个区/市(54.9%)的发育迟缓患病率高于全国平均水平,即297个区/城(57.8%)≥30%,91个区/城市(17.7%)≥40%。苏门答腊岛、爪哇岛、苏拉威西岛以及巴厘岛、东努沙登加拉岛和西努沙登加拉岛(巴厘岛NTT NTB)之间存在自相关。SAR模型揭示了以下变量,这些变量对该国各地的发育迟缓率有重大影响:排便、洗手、怀孕期间至少四次产前检查、贫困、5岁以下儿童的免疫接种和补充食品。
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引用次数: 3
Habitat suitability map of Ixodes ricinus tick in France using multi-criteria analysis. 利用多标准分析法绘制法国蓖麻蜱生境适宜性图。
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-17 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1058
I. Lebert, Séverine Bord, C. Saint-Andrieux, Eva Cassar, P. Gasqui, F. Beugnet, K. Chalvet-Monfray, S. Vanwambeke, G. Vourc'h, M. René-Martellet
The tick Ixodes ricinus is widely distributed across Europe and is responsible for the transmission of several pathogens to humans and animals. In this study, we used a knowledge-based method to map variations in habitat suitability for I. ricinus ticks throughout continental France and Corsica. The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) integrated four major biotic and abiotic factors known to influence tick populations: climate, land cover, altitude and the density of wild ungulates. For each factor, habitat suitability index (HSI) values were attributed to different locations based on knowledge regarding its impact on tick populations. For the MCDA, two methods of factor combination were tested, additive and multiplicative, both which were evaluated at the spatial scales of departments and local municipalities. The resulting habitat suitability maps (resolution=100x100 m) revealed that conditions are suitable for I. ricinus over most of France and Corsica. Particularly suitable habitats were located in central, north-eastern and south-western France, while less-suitable habitats were found in the Mediterranean and mountainous regions. To validate the approach, the HSI scores were compared to field data of I. ricinus nymph abundance. Regardless of scale, the correlation between abundance indicator and HSI score was stronger for the additive than for the multiplicative approach. Overall, this study demonstrates the value of MCDA for estimating habitat suitability maps for I. ricinus abundance, which could be especially useful in highlighting areas of the tick's distribution where preventive measures should be prioritised.
蓖麻蜱广泛分布在欧洲各地,并负责将几种病原体传播给人类和动物。在这项研究中,我们使用了一种基于知识的方法来绘制整个法国大陆和科西嘉岛蓖麻蜱生境适宜性的变化。多标准决策分析(MCDA)综合了已知影响蜱虫种群的四种主要生物和非生物因素:气候、土地覆盖、海拔和野生有蹄动物密度。对于每个因子,生境适宜性指数(HSI)值基于其对蜱虫种群影响的知识归因于不同的位置。对MCDA进行了加性和乘性两种因子组合方法的检验,并在部门和直辖市的空间尺度上进行了评价。绘制的生境适宜性图(分辨率为100 × 100 m)显示,法国和科西嘉岛的大部分地区条件适宜蓖麻蠓生长。特别适合的栖息地位于法国中部、东北部和西南部,而不太适合的栖息地则位于地中海和山区。为了验证该方法,将HSI评分与蓖麻若虫丰度的现场数据进行了比较。无论何种尺度,加性方法的丰度指标与恒生指数评分之间的相关性强于乘法方法。总的来说,这项研究证明了MCDA在估计蓖麻蜱丰富度的栖息地适宜性地图方面的价值,这在突出蜱的分布区域时尤其有用,这些区域应该优先采取预防措施。
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引用次数: 1
The Role of geography in the reorganization of the Italian National Health Service: Implementation of geographic information in the logistics and resilience of organizational structures. 地理在重组意大利国家卫生服务中的作用:在组织结构的后勤和弹性中实施地理信息。
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-17 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1041
Carla Dieci, G. Rinaldi
The study, carried out at the Local Healthcare Authority in Reggio Emilia, Italy, focused on required travel of its employees with reference to length of travel route, degree of coverage through local public transport, degree of overlapping travel (useful to assess the feasibility of car sharing initiatives) and plans for shift work. The goal was to identify main obstacles when attempting to improve the reliability and scalability of this type of analysis, so that it can be used for regular updates. It was found that, on the one hand, it is necessary to promptly identify changes in the staff structure due to turnover that particularly affects health practitioners, such as doctors and fixed-term employees, while, on the other it is mandatory to comply with the provisions of Italian Law according to which, mobility managers must draw up annual commuting plans with an analysis of the routes travelled. The results of this work are likely to have useful implications for the improvement of the logistics system and, in particular, for the resilience of healthcare organizations.
这项研究是在意大利雷焦艾米利亚的地方医疗保健局进行的,重点关注其员工所需的旅行,包括旅行路线长度、当地公共交通的覆盖程度、重叠旅行的程度(有助于评估汽车共享计划的可行性)和轮班工作计划。目标是在试图提高此类分析的可靠性和可扩展性时识别主要障碍,以便将其用于定期更新。研究发现,一方面,有必要迅速查明由于流动而导致的工作人员结构的变化,这特别影响到医生和定期雇员等健康从业者,而另一方面,必须遵守意大利法律的规定,根据该法律,交通管理人员必须制定年度通勤计划,并对出行路线进行分析。这项工作的结果可能会对物流系统的改进,特别是对医疗保健组织的恢复力产生有益的影响。
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引用次数: 0
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