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Spatial and temporal dynamic analysis of rabies: A review of current methodologies. 狂犬病的时空动态分析:当前方法综述。
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-30 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1139
Shuaicheng Chen

Rabies continues to be one of the deadliest, high risk diseases worldwide, posing a severe threat to public health. The lack of human-to-human transmission means that the spread of rabies is not significantly affected by the distribution of humans or migra- tion. Thus, the spatiotemporal dynamic of cases in both wild and domestic animals is an important issue that can result in human cases. This paper gives an overview of the methodologies for the spatial and temporal dynamic analysis of this disease. It introduces the most representative research progress of spatial aggregation, dynamic transmission, spatiotemporal distribution, epidemiologi- cal analysis and application of modelling in the study of rabies transmission in recent years. This overview should be useful for investigating the spatial and temporal dynamics of rabies, as it could help understanding the spread of cases as well as contribute to the development of better prevention and control strategies in ecology and epidemiology.

狂犬病仍然是世界上最致命的高风险疾病之一,对公众健康构成严重威胁。缺乏人际传播意味着狂犬病的传播不受人类分布或迁徙的显著影响。因此,野生动物和家畜病例的时空动态是一个可能导致人类病例的重要问题。本文概述了该疾病的时空动态分析方法。介绍了近年来狂犬病传播研究在空间聚集、动态传播、时空分布、流行病学分析和模型应用等方面最具代表性的研究进展。这一综述有助于调查狂犬病的时空动态,因为它有助于了解病例的传播情况,并有助于制定更好的生态学和流行病学预防和控制策略。
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引用次数: 1
Spatial association of socio-demographic, environmental factors and prevalence of diabetes mellitus in middle-aged and elderly people in Thailand. 社会人口、环境因素与泰国中老年人糖尿病患病率的空间关系
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-29 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1091
Suparat Tappo, Wongsa Laohasiriwong, Nattapong Puttanapong

The burden of diabetes mellitus (DM), one of the major noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), has been significantly rising globally. In the Asia-Pacific region, Thailand ranks within the top ten of diabetic patient populations and the disease has increased from 2.3% in 1991 to 8.0% in 2015. This study applied local indicators of spatial association (LISA) and spatial regression to examine the local associations in Thailand with night-time light, spatial density of alcohol/convenience stores, concentration of elderly population and prevalence of DM among middle-aged and elderly people. Univariate LISA identified the statistically significant cluster of DM prevalence in the upper north-eastern region. For multivariate spatial analysis, the obtained R2 values of the spatial lag model (SLM) and spatial error model (SEM) were 0.310 and 0.316, respectively. These two models indicated a statistical significant association of several sociodemographic and environmental characteristics with the DM prevalence: food shops (SLM coefficient = 9.625, p<0.001; SEM coefficient = 9.695, p<0.001), alcohol stores (SLM coefficient = 1.936, p<0.05; SEM coefficient = 1.894, p<0.05), population density of elderly people (SLM coefficient = 0.156, p<0.05; SEM coefficient = 0.188, p<0.05) and night-time light density (SLM coefficient = -0.437, p<0.001; SEM coefficient = -0.437, p<0.001). These findings are useful for policymakers and public health professionals in formulating measures aimed at reducing DM burden in the country.

作为主要的非传染性疾病之一,糖尿病(DM)的负担在全球范围内显著上升。在亚太地区,泰国糖尿病患者人数排名前十,发病率从1991年的2.3%上升到2015年的8.0%。本研究运用空间关联的地方指标(LISA)和空间回归来检验泰国夜间灯光、酒类/便利店的空间密度、老年人口集中度和中老年糖尿病患病率与当地的关联。单变量LISA确定了上东北地区DM患病率的统计显著集群。对于多元空间分析,得到的空间滞后模型(SLM)和空间误差模型(SEM)的R2值分别为0.310和0.316。这两个模型显示了几种社会人口统计学和环境特征与糖尿病患病率之间的统计学显著关联:食品店(SLM系数= 9.625,p
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引用次数: 0
Spatio-temporal analysis of leptospirosis in Brazil and its relationship with flooding. 巴西钩端螺旋体病的时空分析及其与洪水的关系。
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-29 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1128
Alice Nardoni Marteli, Laurindo Antonio Guasselli, Décio Diament, Gabriele Ozório Wink, Vitor Vieira Vasconcelos

Leptospirosis is a serious public health problem in Brazil, which can be observed after flooding events. Using an exploratory mixed clustering method, this ecological study analyzes whether spatial-temporal clustering patterns of leptospirosis occur in Brazil. Data from the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS) were used to calculate the prevalence of leptospirosis between 2007 and 2017 in all counties of the country. Clustering techniques, including spatial association indicators, were used for analysis and evaluation of disease yearly spatial distribution. Based on Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) with Empirical Bayesian rates detected spatial patterns of leptospirosis ranging from 0.137 (p = 0.001 in 2009) to 0.293 (p = 0.001 in 2008). Over the whole period, the rate was 0.388 (p = 0.001). The main pattern showed permanence of leptospirosis clusters in the South and emergence and permanence of such clusters in northern Brazil. The municipalities with leptospirosis cases and at least one flood occurrence registered in the Brazilian Integrated Disaster Information System were incorporated into the LISA cluster map with Empirical Bayesian rates. These counties were expected to exhibit clustering, not all did. The results of the cluster analysis suggest allocation of health resources in areas with leptospirosis clustering.

在巴西,钩端螺旋体病是一个严重的公共卫生问题,可以在洪水事件后观察到。本生态研究采用探索性混合聚类方法,分析巴西钩端螺旋体病是否存在时空聚类模式。来自巴西统一卫生系统(SUS)的数据用于计算2007年至2017年该国所有县的钩端螺旋体病患病率。采用聚类技术,包括空间关联指标,对疾病年空间分布进行分析和评价。基于空间关联局部指标(LISA)和经验贝叶斯率,钩端螺旋体病的空间分布范围为0.137(2009年p = 0.001) ~ 0.293(2008年p = 0.001)。在整个期间,该比率为0.388 (p = 0.001)。主要模式显示钩端螺旋体病在巴西南部持续存在,在巴西北部出现并持续存在。在巴西综合灾害信息系统中登记的有钩端螺旋体病病例和至少一次洪水发生的城市被纳入LISA聚类图,并采用经验贝叶斯率。这些县预计会出现集群,但并非所有县都如此。聚类分析的结果提示在钩端螺旋体病聚集的地区分配卫生资源。
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引用次数: 2
The geo-spatial perspective of biological, social and environmental determinants of early pregnancy anaemia in rural Sri Lanka: Need for context-specific approaches on prevention. 斯里兰卡农村地区早孕贫血的生物、社会和环境决定因素的地理空间视角:针对具体情况采取预防措施的必要性。
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-29 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1110
Gayani Shashikala Amarasinghe, Thilini Chanchala Agampodi, Vasana Mendis, Suneth Buddhika Agampodi

We provide a novel approach to understanding the multiple causations of maternal anaemia in a geospatial context, highlighting how genetics, environment and socioeconomic disparities at the micro-geographical level lead to the inequitable distribution of anaemia. All first-trimester pregnant women registered for the antenatal care programme in Anuradhapura District, Sri Lanka from July to September 2019 were invited to the Rajarata Pregnancy Cohort (RaPCo), which assessed the prevalence of anaemia in early pregnancy. The combination of the prevalence of anaemia and minor haemoglobinopathy-related anaemia (MHA) with the poverty headcount index of the 22 health divisions in the district was investigated using GeoDa spatial K-means clustering. Sociodemographic and economic data at the divisional level were compared between identified clusters. Combining the analysis with the geographical and environmental characteristics of the region, further hypotheses regarding anaemia in this community were formulated. The study included data from 3,137 pregnant women in early pregnancy. The anaemia and MHA prevalence varied from 13.6 to 21.7% and from 2.6% to 5%, respectively. We identified four distinct spatial clusters. The cluster with the highest anaemia prevalence also included high poverty and the highest prevalence of MHA. The clusters had significant differences with regard to ethnic distribution, access to water, sanitation and dietary patterns. Areas supplied by major irrigation projects had significantly low levels of anaemia, probably attributable to internal migration and improved livelihood. It was evident that genetic, socioeconomic and environmental risk factors were grouped at the divisional level, and that their complex interactions make controlling anaemia with blanket interventions unsuccessful. Analysis of the distribution of heterogeneous risk factors at the micro-geospatial level helped identify context-specific approaches to tackle anaemia in pregnancy.

我们提供了一种新的方法来理解地理空间背景下孕产妇贫血的多种原因,强调微观地理水平上的遗传、环境和社会经济差异如何导致贫血的不公平分布。2019年7月至9月期间,所有在斯里兰卡阿努拉德普勒县产前保健规划中登记的早期妊娠孕妇都被邀请参加拉贾拉塔邦妊娠队列(RaPCo),该队列评估了妊娠早期贫血的患病率。利用GeoDa空间k均值聚类分析了该地区22个卫生部门的贫血和轻微血红蛋白病相关贫血(MHA)患病率与贫困人口指数的关系。在确定的集群之间比较了区域一级的社会人口和经济数据。将分析结果与该地区的地理和环境特征相结合,提出了有关该社区贫血的进一步假设。这项研究包括了3137名怀孕早期的孕妇的数据。贫血和MHA患病率分别从13.6%到21.7%和2.6%到5%不等。我们确定了四个不同的空间集群。贫血患病率最高的群体还包括高贫困和MHA患病率最高的群体。这些群体在种族分布、获得水、卫生设施和饮食模式方面存在显著差异。主要灌溉项目供应的地区的贫血率很低,这可能是由于国内移徙和生计改善所致。显然,遗传、社会经济和环境风险因素在地区一级进行了分组,它们之间复杂的相互作用使得采用一揽子干预措施控制贫血不成功。在微观地理空间层面分析异质性风险因素的分布有助于确定针对具体情况的方法来解决妊娠贫血问题。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial access to public hospitals during COVID-19 in Nottinghamshire, UK. COVID-19期间英国诺丁汉郡公立医院的空间通道。
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-29 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1123
Jishuo Zhang, Meifang Li

We intend to tackle two under-addressed issues in access to healthcare services during the COVID-19 pandemic: first, the spatiotemporal dynamic of access during the pandemic of acute communicable disease; second, the demographic and socioeconomic access disparities. We used the two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method to measure the spatial access to public hospitals during the second COVID-19 wave (September 28th-February 28th, 2021) in Nottinghamshire, UK. To investigate the temporal variation in access along with the development of the pandemic, we divided our study period into 11 sections and applied the 2SFCA to each of them. The results indicate that western Nottinghamshire is better than the eastern part from a spatial perspective and the north-western urban area represents the highest spatial access; temporally, the accessibility of the public hospitals generally decreased when the number of cases increased. Particular low accessibility was observed at the beginning of the pandemic when the outbreak hit the university region and its vicinities during the back-to-school season. Our disparity analysis found that i) the access of the senior population to public hospitals deviated from that of the general population, ii) the access was positively associated with socioeconomic status, and iii) all disparities were related to the urban-rural discrepancy. These findings can help to plan temporary clinics or hospitals during epidemic emergencies. More generally, they provide scientific support to pandemic-related healthcare resource allocation and policy- making, particularly for people in vulnerable areas.

我们打算解决COVID-19大流行期间在获得医疗服务方面未得到充分解决的两个问题:首先,急性传染病大流行期间获得医疗服务的时空动态;第二,人口和社会经济准入差距。采用两步浮动集水区法(2SFCA)测量英国诺丁汉郡第二波COVID-19(2021年9月28日至2月28日)期间公立医院的空间可达性。为了调查随着疫情发展而出现的时间变化,我们将研究期分为11个部分,并对每个部分应用2SFCA。结果表明:从空间上看,诺丁汉郡西部地区优于东部地区,西北城区的空间通达性最高;从时间上看,随着病例数量的增加,公立医院的可及性普遍下降。在大流行开始时,当疫情在返校季节袭击大学地区及其附近地区时,可及性特别低。我们的差异分析发现,i)老年人群在公立医院的可及性与普通人群的可及性存在差异,ii)可及性与社会经济地位呈正相关,iii)所有差异都与城乡差异有关。这些发现有助于在疫情紧急情况下规划临时诊所或医院。更广泛地说,它们为与大流行有关的卫生保健资源分配和政策制定提供科学支持,特别是为脆弱地区的人们提供科学支持。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial variability of mother-to-child human immunodeficiency virus transmission in a province in the Brazilian Rainforest: An ecological study. 人类免疫缺陷病毒母婴传播在巴西热带雨林某省的空间变异性:一项生态学研究。
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-29 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1101
Marcus Matheus Quadros Santos, Bianca Alessandra Gomes do Carmo, Taymara Barbosa Rodrigues, Bruna Rafaela Leite Dias, Cleyton Abreu Martins, Glenda Roberta Oliveira Naiff Ferreira, Andressa Tavares Parente, Cíntia Yollete Urbano Pauxis Aben-Atha, Sandra Helena Isse Polaro, Eliã Pinheiro Botelho

The mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a serious public health problem in the Brazilian Rainforest. This study aimed to spatially analyze this type of infection between 2007 and 2018 in Pará, which is the second-largest Brazilian state in the Brazilian Rainforest and also has the highest MTCT of HIV in Brazil. We analyzed the incidence rates of HIV (including the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) by MTCT as the main route of infection in children younger than 13 years old and whose mothers live in Pará. We employed spatial autocorrelation, spatial scanning, and geographic-weighted spatial regression techniques. In the period of this study, 389 new HIV/AIDS were noted, with territorial expansion of the incidence rates in the municipalities in northern and southern Pará having the highest rates. São Francisco do Pará had high spatial risk and high-spatiotemporal risk clusters comprising municipalities in western and south-western Pará between 2013 and 2016. The spatial variability of HIV/AIDS incidence rates was found to be common in the number of men and women with formal jobs; unemployed ≥18 years old people; elementary school pupils; and families enrolled in the "Single Registry for Social Programs". The social equity approach in Pará guarantee pregnant women access to preventive, diagnostic and treatment health services and their children should be supported to eliminate the MTCT of HIV in Pará.

人类免疫缺陷病毒(艾滋病毒)的母婴传播(MTCT)仍然是巴西热带雨林的一个严重公共卫生问题。这项研究旨在从空间上分析2007年至2018年在帕尔发生的这种类型的感染,帕尔是巴西雨林中的第二大州,也是巴西艾滋病毒MTCT最高的州。我们分析了母亲居住在par的13岁以下儿童通过MTCT作为主要感染途径的艾滋病毒(包括获得性免疫缺陷综合征(AIDS))的发病率。我们采用了空间自相关、空间扫描和地理加权空间回归技术。在本研究期间,发现了389例新的艾滋病毒/艾滋病病例,其中北部和南部帕尔帕的城市发病率的领土扩张率最高。2013年至2016年期间,帕尔帕尔西斯科具有高空间风险和高时空风险集群,包括帕尔帕尔帕尔西部和西南部的城市。艾滋病毒/艾滋病发病率的空间变异性在有正式工作的男女人数中是普遍存在的;失业年龄≥18岁;小学生;以及在“社会项目单一登记处”登记的家庭。应支持帕尔的社会公平做法,保证孕妇获得预防、诊断和治疗保健服务,并支持其子女消除帕尔的艾滋病毒母婴传播。
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引用次数: 1
Immunity to poliovirus in Afghanistan: A household sampling method for serological assessment based on geographical information systems. 阿富汗脊髓灰质炎病毒免疫:基于地理信息系统的血清学评估的家庭抽样方法。
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-29 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1107
Amalia Mendes, Ari Whiteman, Benjamin Nygren, Brian Kaplan, Imtiaz Hussain, Sajid Soofi, Maureen Martinez, Noha H Farag

Afghanistan continues to experience challenges affecting polio eradication. Mass polio vaccination campaigns, which aim to protect children under the age of 5, are a key eradication strategy. To date, the polio program in Afghanistan has only employed facility-based seroprevalence surveys, which can be subject to sampling bias. We describe the feasibility in implementing a cross-sectional household poliovirus seroprevalence survey based on geographical information systems (GIS) in three districts. Digital maps with randomly selected predetermined starting points were provided to teams, with a total target of 1,632 households. Teams were instructed to navigate to predetermined starting points and enrol the closest household within 60 m. To assess effectiveness of these methods, we calculated percentages for total households enrolled with valid geocoordinates collected within the designated boundary, and whether the Euclidean distance of households were within 60 m of a predetermined starting point. A normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) image ratio was conducted to further investigate variability in team performances. The study enrolled a total of 78% of the target sample with 52% of all households within 60 m of a pre-selected point and 79% within the designated cluster boundary. Success varied considerably between the four target areas ranging from 42% enrolment of the target sample in one place to 90% enrolment of the target sample in another. Interviews with the field teams revealed that differences in security status and amount of non-residential land cover were key barriers to higher enrolment rates. Our findings indicate household poliovirus seroprevalence surveys using GIS-based sampling can be effectively implemented in polio endemic countries to capture representative samples. We also proposed ways to achieve higher success rates if these methods are to be used in the future, particularly in areas with concerns of insecurity or spatially dispersed residential units.

阿富汗继续面临影响根除脊髓灰质炎的挑战。旨在保护5岁以下儿童的大规模脊髓灰质炎疫苗接种运动是一项关键的根除战略。迄今为止,阿富汗的脊髓灰质炎项目只采用了基于设施的血清患病率调查,这可能会受到抽样偏差的影响。我们描述了在三个地区实施基于地理信息系统(GIS)的横断面家庭脊髓灰质炎病毒血清患病率调查的可行性。向参赛队伍提供了随机选择的预定起点的数字地图,总目标是1632户。各队被指示前往预定的起点,并在60米内最近的家庭登记。为了评估这些方法的有效性,我们计算了在指定边界内收集有效地理坐标的登记家庭总数的百分比,以及家庭的欧几里得距离是否在预定起点的60米范围内。采用归一化植被指数(NDVI)图像比例进一步研究团队绩效的可变性。该研究共纳入了78%的目标样本,其中52%的家庭在预选点60米内,79%在指定的群集边界内。四个目标区域之间的成功率差异很大,从一个地方的目标样本入学率为42%到另一个地方的目标样本入学率为90%。与实地小组的访谈显示,安全状况和非住宅土地覆盖数量的差异是提高入学率的主要障碍。我们的研究结果表明,在脊髓灰质炎流行国家,使用基于gis的抽样方法进行家庭脊髓灰质炎病毒血清阳性率调查可以有效地实施,以获取有代表性的样本。我们还提出了提高成功率的方法,如果这些方法在未来使用,特别是在不安全或空间分散的住宅单元的地区。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial analysis of the AIDS mortality rate among young people in a province of the Brazilian Amazon: An ecological study. 巴西亚马逊省青年艾滋病死亡率的空间分析:一项生态研究。
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-29 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1102
Sara Melissa Lago Sousa, Andrey Oeiras Pedroso, Iaron Leal Seabra, Glenda Roberta Oliveira Naiff Ferreira, Aline Maria Pereira Cruz Ramos, Sandra Helena Isse Polaro, Eliã Pinheiro Botelho

Worldwide, policies to combat human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have led to a small decrease in the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) mortality rate among young people. For greater policy efficacy, it is necessary to determine the influence of social determinants of health (SDHs) in each territory. The objective of this study was to spatially analyse the AIDS mortality rate among young people in a province of the Brazilian Amazon and the spatial variability of the rate promoted by SDHs. All reports of AIDS deaths between 2007 and 2018 among young people living in the state of Pará were included in the study. The mortality rate was analysed using spatial distribution and autocorrelation, spatial scanning, and geographically weighted regression (GWR). During the study period, there were 1,372 deaths from AIDS among young people with a territorial expansion. The spatial autocorrelation showed two high-high clusters in the period from 2007 to 2010, one formed by municipalities in south-eastern Pará and one in the metropolitan region of Belém, with only the latter remaining between 2011 and 2018. This region showed a higher spatial risk for AIDS mortality and was the only cluster with spatiotemporal risk in the 2013-2018 period. Spatial variability was promoted by the i) the youth homicide rate, ii) the elementary school dropout rate and iii) the number of families registered in the Unified Registry for Social Programs (CadÚnico). This study provides support for the implementation of effective focal policies to combat HIV and reduce the mortality rate among young people in Pará.

在世界范围内,防治人体免疫机能丧失病毒(艾滋病毒)的政策使青年人患后天免疫机能丧失综合症(艾滋病)的死亡率略有下降。为了提高政策效力,有必要确定健康的社会决定因素在每个领土的影响。本研究的目的是对巴西亚马逊地区一个省年轻人的艾滋病死亡率进行空间分析,以及sdh促进的死亡率的空间变异性。该研究纳入了2007年至2018年期间居住在帕尔州的年轻人中所有艾滋病死亡报告。采用空间分布和自相关、空间扫描和地理加权回归(GWR)对死亡率进行分析。在研究期间,随着领土的扩大,有1372名年轻人死于艾滋病。空间自相关分析显示,2007 - 2010年期间存在两个“高-高”集群,一个由帕尔帕东南部的各市组成,另一个由贝尔萨姆大都市区组成,后者仅在2011 - 2018年期间存在。2013-2018年期间,该区域艾滋病死亡空间风险较高,是唯一存在时空风险的集群。i)青少年凶杀率,ii)小学辍学率和iii)在社会项目统一登记(CadÚnico)中登记的家庭数量促进了空间变异性。这项研究为执行有效的重点政策提供支持,以防治艾滋病毒和降低帕尔年轻人的死亡率。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of the presence of private hospitals on the spatial equality of healthcare accessibility in Beijing, China. 北京市民营医院存在对医疗卫生可及性空间平等性的影响
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-29 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1157
Teqi Dai, Kaifei Guo, Juanjuan Zhao, Wenqing Lu

Providing equal geographical access to hospitals, either in the public or private healthcare sector, is vital and will benefit public health in general. Against the background of the partial privatization of the healthcare sector, the impact of private hospitals on equal healthcare access has been a highly neglected issue. We have applied an assessment methodology to study this situation by comparing the status quo scenario with one without private hospitals, based on accessibility analysis and spatial equality measurements. The case study of Beijing, China revealed a double-sided impact. With the presence of private hospitals, the Gini coefficient of spatial accessibility in urban districts was reduced from 0.03391 to 0.03211, while it increased from 0.1734 to 0.1914 in suburban districts. Thus, private hospitals improved spatial equality in urban districts in Beijing but jeopardized it in suburban districts. These research findings should enlighten policymakers to promote healthcare equality but would also need to be repeated in some other big cities.

在公共或私营医疗保健部门提供平等的地理就医机会至关重要,并将有利于一般公共卫生。在保健部门部分私有化的背景下,私立医院对平等保健机会的影响一直是一个被高度忽视的问题。基于可达性分析和空间平等测量,我们采用了一种评估方法,通过将现状与没有私立医院的情况进行比较,来研究这种情况。中国北京的案例研究揭示了其双重影响。随着民营医院的存在,市区空间可达性的基尼系数从0.03391下降到0.03211,而郊区空间可达性的基尼系数从0.1734上升到0.1914。因此,民营医院改善了北京城区的空间平等,但破坏了郊区的空间平等。这些研究结果应该启发决策者促进医疗平等,但也需要在其他一些大城市重复。
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引用次数: 1
The effectiveness of the restricted policy on specific venues in Hong Kong: A spatial point pattern view. 香港特定场地限制政策的成效:从空间角度分析。
IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-29 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1130
Yijia Liu, Wenzhong Shi, Anshu Zhang, Xiaosheng Zhu

After the fifth wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in May 2022, the Hong Kong government decided to ease the restrictions policy step by step. The main change was to re-open some venues that people like to visit and extend the hours of operation. With the implementation of the relaxed policy, however, the number of confirmed cases rose again. As a result, further relaxation was delayed. As an evaluation of the effectiveness of the restrictions policy could be a reference for future policies balancing viral spread and functionality of society, this paper aimed to respond to this question from the spatial point distribution view. The time, from late March 2020 to February 2021, during which the related policies took place was divided into six periods based on the policy trend (tightening or relaxing). The two-variable Ripley's Kfunction was applied for each period to explore the spatial dependence between confirmed cases and venues as changes in the spatial pattern can reveal the effect of the policy. The results show that, as time passed, the clustering degree decreased and reached its lowest level from August to mid-November 2020, then significantly increased, with the extent of clustering becoming more remarkable and the significant cluster size widening. Our results indicate that the policy had a positive effect on suppressing the spread of the virus in mid-July 2020. Then, with the virus infiltrating the community, the policy had little impact on containing the virus but likely contributed to avoid further infection.

在2022年5月爆发第五波新冠肺炎疫情后,香港政府决定逐步放宽限制政策。主要的变化是重新开放一些人们喜欢参观的场所,并延长营业时间。然而,随着放宽政策的实施,确诊病例再次上升。结果,进一步的放松被推迟了。本文试图从空间分布的角度来回答这一问题,以评估限制政策的有效性,为未来平衡病毒传播和社会功能的政策提供参考。从2020年3月下旬到2021年2月,相关政策发生的时间根据政策趋势(收紧或放松)分为六个时期。每个时段采用双变量Ripley’s k函数,探讨确诊病例与场馆之间的空间依赖关系,因为空间格局的变化可以揭示政策的效果。结果表明:随着时间的推移,2020年8月至11月中旬,该区域的聚类程度逐渐降低,达到最低水平,之后显著增加,聚类程度越来越显著,显著聚类规模逐渐扩大;我们的研究结果表明,该政策在2020年7月中旬对抑制病毒的传播具有积极作用。然后,随着病毒渗透到社区,该政策对遏制病毒几乎没有影响,但可能有助于避免进一步感染。
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引用次数: 1
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Geospatial Health
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