The problem of estimating certain distributions over {0, 1}d is considered here. The distribution represents a quantum system of d qubits, where there are non-trivial dependencies between the qubits. A maximum entropy approach is adopted to reconstruct the distribution from exact moments or observed empirical moments. The Robbins Monro algorithm is used to solve the intractable maximum entropy problem, by constructing an unbiased estimator of the un-normalized target with a sequential Monte Carlo sampler at each iteration. In the case of empirical moments, this coincides with a maximum likelihood estimator. A Bayesian formulation is also considered in order to quantify uncertainty a posteriori. Several approaches are proposed in order to tackle this challenging problem, based on recently developed methodologies. In particular, unbiased estimators of the gradient of the log posterior are constructed and used within a provably convergent Langevin-based Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The methods are illustrated on classically simulated output from quantum simulators.
{"title":"Estimation and uncertainty quantification for the output from quantum simulators","authors":"R. Bennink, A. Jasra, K. Law, P. Lougovski","doi":"10.3934/FODS.2019007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/FODS.2019007","url":null,"abstract":"The problem of estimating certain distributions over {0, 1}d is considered here. The distribution represents a quantum system of d qubits, where there are non-trivial dependencies between the qubits. A maximum entropy approach is adopted to reconstruct the distribution from exact moments or observed empirical moments. The Robbins Monro algorithm is used to solve the intractable maximum entropy problem, by constructing an unbiased estimator of the un-normalized target with a sequential Monte Carlo sampler at each iteration. In the case of empirical moments, this coincides with a maximum likelihood estimator. A Bayesian formulation is also considered in order to quantify uncertainty a posteriori. Several approaches are proposed in order to tackle this challenging problem, based on recently developed methodologies. In particular, unbiased estimators of the gradient of the log posterior are constructed and used within a provably convergent Langevin-based Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The methods are illustrated on classically simulated output from quantum simulators.","PeriodicalId":73054,"journal":{"name":"Foundations of data science (Springfield, Mo.)","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42733584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The aim of this paper is to bring together recent developments in Bayesian generalised linear mixed models and geostatistics. We focus on approximate methods on both areas. A technique known as full-scale approximation, proposed by Sang and Huang (2012) for improving the computational drawbacks of large geostatistical data, is incorporated into the INLA methodology, used for approximate Bayesian inference. We also discuss how INLA can be used for approximating the posterior distribution of transformations of parameters, useful for practical applications. Issues regarding the choice of the parameters of the approximation such as the knots and taper range are also addressed. Emphasis is given in applications in the context of disease mapping by illustrating the methodology for modelling the loa loa prevalence in Cameroon and malaria in the Gambia.
{"title":"Approximate bayesian inference for geostatistical generalised linear models","authors":"E. Evangelou","doi":"10.3934/FODS.2019002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/FODS.2019002","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to bring together recent developments in Bayesian generalised linear mixed models and geostatistics. We focus on approximate methods on both areas. A technique known as full-scale approximation, proposed by Sang and Huang (2012) for improving the computational drawbacks of large geostatistical data, is incorporated into the INLA methodology, used for approximate Bayesian inference. We also discuss how INLA can be used for approximating the posterior distribution of transformations of parameters, useful for practical applications. Issues regarding the choice of the parameters of the approximation such as the knots and taper range are also addressed. Emphasis is given in applications in the context of disease mapping by illustrating the methodology for modelling the loa loa prevalence in Cameroon and malaria in the Gambia.","PeriodicalId":73054,"journal":{"name":"Foundations of data science (Springfield, Mo.)","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44770194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kidney Paired Donation (KPD) is a system whereby incompatible patient-donor pairs (PD pairs) are entered into a pool to find compatible cyclic kidney exchanges where each pair gives and receives a kidney. The donation allocation decision problem for a KPD pool has traditionally been viewed within an economic theory and integer-programming framework. While previous allocation schema work well to donate the maximum number of kidneys at a specific time, certain subgroups of patients are rarely matched in such an exchange. Consequently, these methods lead to systematic inequity in the exchange, where many patients are rejected a kidney repeatedly. Our goal is to investigate inequity within the distribution of kidney allocation among patients, and to present an algorithm which minimizes allocation disparities. The method presented is inspired by cohomology and describes the cyclic structure in a kidney exchange efficiently; this structure is then used to search for an equitable kidney allocation. Another key result of our approach is a score function defined on PD pairs which measures cycle disparity within a KPD pool; i.e., this function measures the relative chance for each PD pair to take part in the kidney exchange if cycles are chosen uniformly. Specifically, we show that PD pairs with underdemanded donors or highly sensitized patients have lower scores than typical PD pairs. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that PD pair score and the chance to obtain a kidney are positively correlated when allocation is done by utility-optimal integer programming methods. In contrast, the chance to obtain a kidney through our method is independent of score, and thus unbiased in this regard.
{"title":"Combinatorial Hodge theory for equitable kidney paired donation","authors":"Joshua L. Mike, V. Maroulas","doi":"10.3934/FODS.2019004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/FODS.2019004","url":null,"abstract":"Kidney Paired Donation (KPD) is a system whereby incompatible patient-donor pairs (PD pairs) are entered into a pool to find compatible cyclic kidney exchanges where each pair gives and receives a kidney. The donation allocation decision problem for a KPD pool has traditionally been viewed within an economic theory and integer-programming framework. While previous allocation schema work well to donate the maximum number of kidneys at a specific time, certain subgroups of patients are rarely matched in such an exchange. Consequently, these methods lead to systematic inequity in the exchange, where many patients are rejected a kidney repeatedly. Our goal is to investigate inequity within the distribution of kidney allocation among patients, and to present an algorithm which minimizes allocation disparities. The method presented is inspired by cohomology and describes the cyclic structure in a kidney exchange efficiently; this structure is then used to search for an equitable kidney allocation. Another key result of our approach is a score function defined on PD pairs which measures cycle disparity within a KPD pool; i.e., this function measures the relative chance for each PD pair to take part in the kidney exchange if cycles are chosen uniformly. Specifically, we show that PD pairs with underdemanded donors or highly sensitized patients have lower scores than typical PD pairs. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that PD pair score and the chance to obtain a kidney are positively correlated when allocation is done by utility-optimal integer programming methods. In contrast, the chance to obtain a kidney through our method is independent of score, and thus unbiased in this regard.","PeriodicalId":73054,"journal":{"name":"Foundations of data science (Springfield, Mo.)","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44209556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Multivariate stochastic volatility models are a popular and well-known class of models in the analysis of financial time series because of their abilities to capture the important stylized facts of financial returns data. We consider the problems of filtering distribution estimation and also marginal likelihood calculation for multivariate stochastic volatility models with cross-leverage effects in the high dimensional case, that is when the number of financial time series that we analyze simultaneously (denoted by begin{document}$ d $end{document} ) is large. The standard particle filter has been widely used in the literature to solve these intractable inference problems. It has excellent performance in low to moderate dimensions, but collapses in the high dimensional case. In this article, two new and advanced particle filters proposed in [ 4 ], named the space-time particle filter and the marginal space-time particle filter, are explored for these estimation problems. The better performance in both the accuracy and stability for the two advanced particle filters are shown using simulation and empirical studies in comparison with the standard particle filter. In addition, Bayesian static model parameter estimation problem is considered with the advances in particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The particle marginal Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is applied together with the likelihood estimates from the space-time particle filter to infer the static model parameter successfully when that using the likelihood estimates from the standard particle filter fails.
{"title":"Particle filters for inference of high-dimensional multivariate stochastic volatility models with cross-leverage effects","authors":"Yaxian Xu, A. Jasra","doi":"10.3934/fods.2019003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/fods.2019003","url":null,"abstract":"Multivariate stochastic volatility models are a popular and well-known class of models in the analysis of financial time series because of their abilities to capture the important stylized facts of financial returns data. We consider the problems of filtering distribution estimation and also marginal likelihood calculation for multivariate stochastic volatility models with cross-leverage effects in the high dimensional case, that is when the number of financial time series that we analyze simultaneously (denoted by begin{document}$ d $end{document} ) is large. The standard particle filter has been widely used in the literature to solve these intractable inference problems. It has excellent performance in low to moderate dimensions, but collapses in the high dimensional case. In this article, two new and advanced particle filters proposed in [ 4 ], named the space-time particle filter and the marginal space-time particle filter, are explored for these estimation problems. The better performance in both the accuracy and stability for the two advanced particle filters are shown using simulation and empirical studies in comparison with the standard particle filter. In addition, Bayesian static model parameter estimation problem is considered with the advances in particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The particle marginal Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is applied together with the likelihood estimates from the space-time particle filter to infer the static model parameter successfully when that using the likelihood estimates from the standard particle filter fails.","PeriodicalId":73054,"journal":{"name":"Foundations of data science (Springfield, Mo.)","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43334711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Recently, neural networks (NN) with an infinite number of layers have been introduced. Especially for these very large NN the training procedure is very expensive. Hence, there is interest to study their robustness with respect to input data to avoid unnecessarily retraining the network. Typically, model-based statistical inference methods, e.g. Bayesian neural networks, are used to quantify uncertainties. Here, we consider a special class of residual neural networks and we study the case, when the number of layers can be arbitrarily large. Then, kinetic theory allows to interpret the network as a dynamical system, described by a partial differential equation. We study the robustness of the mean-field neural network with respect to perturbations in initial data by applying UQ approaches on the loss functions.
{"title":"Spectral methods to study the robustness of residual neural networks with infinite layers","authors":"T. Trimborn, Stephan Gerster, G. Visconti","doi":"10.3934/fods.2020012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/fods.2020012","url":null,"abstract":"Recently, neural networks (NN) with an infinite number of layers have been introduced. Especially for these very large NN the training procedure is very expensive. Hence, there is interest to study their robustness with respect to input data to avoid unnecessarily retraining the network. Typically, model-based statistical inference methods, e.g. Bayesian neural networks, are used to quantify uncertainties. Here, we consider a special class of residual neural networks and we study the case, when the number of layers can be arbitrarily large. Then, kinetic theory allows to interpret the network as a dynamical system, described by a partial differential equation. We study the robustness of the mean-field neural network with respect to perturbations in initial data by applying UQ approaches on the loss functions.","PeriodicalId":73054,"journal":{"name":"Foundations of data science (Springfield, Mo.)","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70247997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The class imbalance problem arises in two-class classification problems, when the less frequent (minority) class is observed much less than the majority class. This characteristic is endemic in many problems such as modeling default or fraud detection. Recent work by Owen [ 19 ] has shown that, in a theoretical context related to infinite imbalance, logistic regression behaves in such a way that all data in the rare class can be replaced by their mean vector to achieve the same coefficient estimates. We build on Owen's results to show the phenomenon remains true for both weighted and penalized likelihood methods. Such results suggest that problems may occur if there is structure within the rare class that is not captured by the mean vector. We demonstrate this problem and suggest a relabelling solution based on clustering the minority class. In a simulation and a real mortgage dataset, we show that logistic regression is not able to provide the best out-of-sample predictive performance and that an approach that is able to model underlying structure in the minority class is often superior.
{"title":"Issues using logistic regression with class imbalance, with a case study from credit risk modelling","authors":"Yazhe Li, T. Bellotti, N. Adams","doi":"10.3934/fods.2019016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/fods.2019016","url":null,"abstract":"The class imbalance problem arises in two-class classification problems, when the less frequent (minority) class is observed much less than the majority class. This characteristic is endemic in many problems such as modeling default or fraud detection. Recent work by Owen [ 19 ] has shown that, in a theoretical context related to infinite imbalance, logistic regression behaves in such a way that all data in the rare class can be replaced by their mean vector to achieve the same coefficient estimates. We build on Owen's results to show the phenomenon remains true for both weighted and penalized likelihood methods. Such results suggest that problems may occur if there is structure within the rare class that is not captured by the mean vector. We demonstrate this problem and suggest a relabelling solution based on clustering the minority class. In a simulation and a real mortgage dataset, we show that logistic regression is not able to provide the best out-of-sample predictive performance and that an approach that is able to model underlying structure in the minority class is often superior.","PeriodicalId":73054,"journal":{"name":"Foundations of data science (Springfield, Mo.)","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70247842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Background material","authors":"","doi":"10.1090/surv/236/02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1090/surv/236/02","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":73054,"journal":{"name":"Foundations of data science (Springfield, Mo.)","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60690335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is associated to a continuum problem, such as a continuous-time stochastic process. It is then assumed that the associated probability measure can only be used (e.g. sampled) under a discretized approximation. In such scenarios, it is known that to achieve a target error, the computational effort can be reduced when using MLMC relative to exact sampling from the most accurate discretized probability. The ideas rely upon introducing hierarchies of the discretizations where less accurate approximations cost less to compute, and using an appropriate collapsing sum expression for the target expectation. If a suitable coupling of the probability measures in the hierarchy is achieved, then a reduction in cost is possible. This article focused on the case where exact sampling from such coupling is not possible. We show that one can construct suitably coupled MCMC kernels when given only access to MCMC kernels which are invariant with respect to each discretized probability measure. We prove, under assumptions, that this coupled MCMC approach in a ML context can reduce the cost to achieve a given error, relative to exact sampling. Our approach is illustrated on a numerical example.
{"title":"Markov chain simulation for multilevel Monte Carlo","authors":"A. Jasra, K. Law, Yaxian Xu","doi":"10.3934/FODS.2021004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/FODS.2021004","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is associated to a continuum problem, such as a continuous-time stochastic process. It is then assumed that the associated probability measure can only be used (e.g. sampled) under a discretized approximation. In such scenarios, it is known that to achieve a target error, the computational effort can be reduced when using MLMC relative to exact sampling from the most accurate discretized probability. The ideas rely upon introducing hierarchies of the discretizations where less accurate approximations cost less to compute, and using an appropriate collapsing sum expression for the target expectation. If a suitable coupling of the probability measures in the hierarchy is achieved, then a reduction in cost is possible. This article focused on the case where exact sampling from such coupling is not possible. We show that one can construct suitably coupled MCMC kernels when given only access to MCMC kernels which are invariant with respect to each discretized probability measure. We prove, under assumptions, that this coupled MCMC approach in a ML context can reduce the cost to achieve a given error, relative to exact sampling. Our approach is illustrated on a numerical example.","PeriodicalId":73054,"journal":{"name":"Foundations of data science (Springfield, Mo.)","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47508531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I introduce a continuous-variable quantum topological data algorithm. The goal of the quantum algorithm is to calculate the Betti numbers in persistent homology which are the dimensions of the kernel of the combinatorial Laplacian. I accomplish this task with the use of qRAM to create an oracle which organizes sets of data. I then perform a continuous-variable phase estimation on a Dirac operator to get a probability distribution with eigenvalue peaks. The results also leverage an implementation of continuous-variable conditional swap gate.
{"title":"Quantum topological data analysis with continuous variables","authors":"G. Siopsis","doi":"10.3934/fods.2019017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/fods.2019017","url":null,"abstract":"I introduce a continuous-variable quantum topological data algorithm. The goal of the quantum algorithm is to calculate the Betti numbers in persistent homology which are the dimensions of the kernel of the combinatorial Laplacian. I accomplish this task with the use of qRAM to create an oracle which organizes sets of data. I then perform a continuous-variable phase estimation on a Dirac operator to get a probability distribution with eigenvalue peaks. The results also leverage an implementation of continuous-variable conditional swap gate.","PeriodicalId":73054,"journal":{"name":"Foundations of data science (Springfield, Mo.)","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49129969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
C. Cotter, D. Crisan, Darryl D. Holm, Wei Pan, I. Shevchenko
The stochastic variational approach for geophysical fluid dynamics was introduced by Holm (Proc Roy Soc A, 2015) as a framework for deriving stochastic parameterisations for unresolved scales. This paper applies the variational stochastic parameterisation in a two-layer quasi-geostrophic model for a begin{document}$ beta $end{document} -plane channel flow configuration. We present a new method for estimating the stochastic forcing (used in the parameterisation) to approximate unresolved components using data from the high resolution deterministic simulation, and describe a procedure for computing physically-consistent initial conditions for the stochastic model. We also quantify uncertainty of coarse grid simulations relative to the fine grid ones in homogeneous (teamed with small-scale vortices) and heterogeneous (featuring horizontally elongated large-scale jets) flows, and analyse how the spread of stochastic solutions depends on different parameters of the model. The parameterisation is tested by comparing it with the true eddy-resolving solution that has reached some statistical equilibrium and the deterministic solution modelled on a low-resolution grid. The results show that the proposed parameterisation significantly depends on the resolution of the stochastic model and gives good ensemble performance for both homogeneous and heterogeneous flows, and the parameterisation lays solid foundations for data assimilation.
Holm（Proc Roy Soc A，2015）引入了地球物理流体动力学的随机变分方法，作为导出未解决尺度的随机参数化的框架。本文将变分随机参数化应用于一个双层准地转模型中，该模型适用于一个平面通道流结构。我们提出了一种新的方法来估计随机强迫（用于参数化），以使用来自高分辨率确定性模拟的数据来近似未解决的分量，并描述了计算随机模型物理一致初始条件的过程。我们还量化了均匀流（与小尺度涡流结合）和非均匀流（具有水平伸长的大尺度射流）中粗网格模拟相对于细网格模拟的不确定性，并分析了随机解的传播如何取决于模型的不同参数。通过将参数化与达到某种统计平衡的真实涡流解析解和低分辨率网格上建模的确定性解进行比较来测试参数化。结果表明，所提出的参数化在很大程度上取决于随机模型的分辨率，并且对于均质流和非均质流都具有良好的集成性能，并且参数化为数据同化奠定了坚实的基础。
{"title":"Modelling uncertainty using stochastic transport noise in a 2-layer quasi-geostrophic model","authors":"C. Cotter, D. Crisan, Darryl D. Holm, Wei Pan, I. Shevchenko","doi":"10.3934/fods.2020010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/fods.2020010","url":null,"abstract":"The stochastic variational approach for geophysical fluid dynamics was introduced by Holm (Proc Roy Soc A, 2015) as a framework for deriving stochastic parameterisations for unresolved scales. This paper applies the variational stochastic parameterisation in a two-layer quasi-geostrophic model for a begin{document}$ beta $end{document} -plane channel flow configuration. We present a new method for estimating the stochastic forcing (used in the parameterisation) to approximate unresolved components using data from the high resolution deterministic simulation, and describe a procedure for computing physically-consistent initial conditions for the stochastic model. We also quantify uncertainty of coarse grid simulations relative to the fine grid ones in homogeneous (teamed with small-scale vortices) and heterogeneous (featuring horizontally elongated large-scale jets) flows, and analyse how the spread of stochastic solutions depends on different parameters of the model. The parameterisation is tested by comparing it with the true eddy-resolving solution that has reached some statistical equilibrium and the deterministic solution modelled on a low-resolution grid. The results show that the proposed parameterisation significantly depends on the resolution of the stochastic model and gives good ensemble performance for both homogeneous and heterogeneous flows, and the parameterisation lays solid foundations for data assimilation.","PeriodicalId":73054,"journal":{"name":"Foundations of data science (Springfield, Mo.)","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43640188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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