Pub Date : 2023-07-11DOI: 10.5194/adgeo-58-199-2023
N. Nortier, Michel Paardekooper, Chris Lucas, Anne Blankert, A. van der Neut, Stefan Luxembourg, Agnes Mewe, W. V. van Sark
Abstract. Alongside a transition from steerable and centralized traditional electricity generation to intermittent and more decentralized renewable electricity generation from solar panels and wind turbines, Dutch energy transition scenarios project a widespread deployment of heat pumps and electric vehicles towards 2050. While clearly contributing to the decarbonization of the Dutch energy system, these developments impose challenges regarding electricity supply-demand mismatch and grid congestion. Spatially resolved electricity demand and supply profiles are required to gain a better insight into where and when such problems are likely to occur within the different scenarios. The present paper focuses on Dutch solar energy supply and features the construction of geodatabases of scenario-specific, spatially resolved electricity generation profiles for building, land and water-bound PV. Country-level PV capacities are geographically distributed based on spatial variance in roof PV potential and availability of suitable land and water use areas. Corresponding electricity generation profiles are constructed using historical meteorological measurements, a diffuse fraction model and a anisotropic transposition model. Empirically found performance ratio profiles are applied to account for a multitude of performance loss factors, including shading, dust and inverter efficiency. In 2050, building-bound capacity is projected to show only limited overlap with both land-bound and water-bound PV capacity. On the other hand, regions with considerable water-bound PV capacity also tend to show considerable land-bound PV capacity. Compared to the present-day situation, yearly country-level PV electricity generation is projected to be a factor 18.5, 15.7, or 7.7 higher in 2050 when respectively following the Regional, National or International Steering scenarios.
{"title":"Spatially resolved generation profiles for building, land and water-bound PV: a case study of four Dutch energy transition scenarios","authors":"N. Nortier, Michel Paardekooper, Chris Lucas, Anne Blankert, A. van der Neut, Stefan Luxembourg, Agnes Mewe, W. V. van Sark","doi":"10.5194/adgeo-58-199-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-58-199-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Alongside a transition from steerable and centralized traditional electricity generation to intermittent and more decentralized renewable electricity generation from solar panels and wind turbines, Dutch energy transition scenarios project a widespread deployment of heat pumps and electric vehicles towards 2050. While clearly contributing to the decarbonization of the Dutch energy system, these developments impose challenges regarding electricity supply-demand mismatch and grid congestion. Spatially resolved electricity demand and supply profiles are required to gain a better insight into where and when such problems are likely to occur within the different scenarios. The present paper focuses on Dutch solar energy supply and features the construction of geodatabases of scenario-specific, spatially resolved electricity generation profiles for building, land and water-bound PV. Country-level PV capacities are geographically distributed based on spatial variance in roof PV potential and availability of suitable land and water use areas. Corresponding electricity generation profiles are constructed using historical meteorological measurements, a diffuse fraction model and a anisotropic transposition model. Empirically found performance ratio profiles are applied to account for a multitude of performance loss factors, including shading, dust and inverter efficiency. In 2050, building-bound capacity is projected to show only limited overlap with both land-bound and water-bound PV capacity. On the other hand, regions with considerable water-bound PV capacity also tend to show considerable land-bound PV capacity. Compared to the present-day situation, yearly country-level PV electricity generation is projected to be a factor 18.5, 15.7, or 7.7 higher in 2050 when respectively following the Regional, National or International Steering scenarios.\u0000","PeriodicalId":7329,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Geosciences","volume":"133 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80742004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. Flood damage assessment is a critical aspect in any decision-making process on flood risk management. For this reason, reliable tools for flood damage estimation are required for all the categories of exposed elements. Despite infrastructures can suffer high economic losses in case of flood, compared to other exposed sectors, their flood damage modelling is still a challenging task. This is due, on the one hand, to the structural and dynamic complexity of infrastructure networks, and, on the other hand, to the lack of knowledge and data to investigate damage mechanisms and to calibrate and validate damage models. Grounding on the investigation of the state-of-the-art, this paper presents a conceptualization of flood damage to power grids and reviews the methodologies in the field for an in-depth understanding of the existing modelling approaches, challenges, and limitations. The conceptual model highlights: (i) the different kinds of damage (i.e., direct, indirect, and systemic) the network can suffer, (ii) the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability parameters on which they depend, (iii) the spatial and temporal scales required for their assessment, (iv) the interconnections among power grids and economic activities, and (v) the different recipients of economic losses. The development of the model stresses the importance of dividing the damage assessment into two steps: the estimation of damage in physical units and the consequent economic losses in monetary terms. The variety of damage mechanisms and cascading effects shaping the final damage figure arises, asking for an interdisciplinary and multi-scale evaluation approach. The ultimate objective of the conceptual model is to be an operative tool in support of more comprehensive and reliable flood damage assessments to power grids.
{"title":"A conceptual model for the estimation of flood damage to power grids","authors":"Panagiotis Asaridis, Daniela Molinari","doi":"10.5194/adgeo-61-1-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-61-1-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Flood damage assessment is a critical aspect in any decision-making process on flood risk management. For this reason, reliable tools for flood damage estimation are required for all the categories of exposed elements. Despite infrastructures can suffer high economic losses in case of flood, compared to other exposed sectors, their flood damage modelling is still a challenging task. This is due, on the one hand, to the structural and dynamic complexity of infrastructure networks, and, on the other hand, to the lack of knowledge and data to investigate damage mechanisms and to calibrate and validate damage models. Grounding on the investigation of the state-of-the-art, this paper presents a conceptualization of flood damage to power grids and reviews the methodologies in the field for an in-depth understanding of the existing modelling approaches, challenges, and limitations. The conceptual model highlights: (i) the different kinds of damage (i.e., direct, indirect, and systemic) the network can suffer, (ii) the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability parameters on which they depend, (iii) the spatial and temporal scales required for their assessment, (iv) the interconnections among power grids and economic activities, and (v) the different recipients of economic losses. The development of the model stresses the importance of dividing the damage assessment into two steps: the estimation of damage in physical units and the consequent economic losses in monetary terms. The variety of damage mechanisms and cascading effects shaping the final damage figure arises, asking for an interdisciplinary and multi-scale evaluation approach. The ultimate objective of the conceptual model is to be an operative tool in support of more comprehensive and reliable flood damage assessments to power grids.","PeriodicalId":7329,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Geosciences","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135409946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-26DOI: 10.5194/adgeo-58-189-2023
A. Dietmaier, T. Baumann
Abstract. Geothermal waters provide a great resource to generate clean energy, however, there is a notorious lack of high quality data on these waters. The scarcity of deep geothermal aquifer information is largely due to inaccessibility and high analysis costs. However, multiple operators use geothermal wells in Lower Bavaria and Upper Austria for balneological (medical and wellness) applications as well as for heat mining purposes. The state of the art sampling strategy budgets for a sampling frequency of 1 year. Previous studies have shown that robust groundwater data requires sampling intervals of 1–3 months, however, these studies are based on shallow aquifers which are more likely to be influenced by seasonal changes in meteorological conditions. This study set out to assess whether yearly sampling adequately represents sub-yearly hydrochemical fluctuations in the aquifer by comparing yearly with quasi-continuous hydrochemical data at two wells in southeast Germany by assessing mean, trend and seasonality detection among the high and low temporal resolution data sets. Furthermore, the ability to produce reliable forecasts based on yearly data was examined. In order to test the applicability of virtual sensors to elevate the information content of yearly data, correlations between the individual parameters were assessed. The results of this study show that seasonal hydrochemical variations take place in deep aquifers, and are not adequately represented by yearly data points, as they are typically gathered at similar production states of the well and do not show varying states throughout the year. Forecasting on the basis of yearly data does not represent the data range of currently measured continuous data. The limited data availability did not allow for strong correlations to be determined. We found that annual measurements, if taken at regular intervals and roughly the same production rates, represent only a snapshot of the possible hydrochemical compositions. Neither mean values, trends nor seasonality was accurately captured by yearly data. This could lead to a violation of stability criteria for mineral water, or to problems in the geothermal operation (scalings, degassing). We thus recommend a new testing regime of at least 3 samples a year. While not a replacement for the detailed analyses, under the right circumstances, and when trained with more substantial data sets, viertual sensors provide a robust method in this setting to trigger further actions.
{"title":"Forecasting changes of the flow regime at deep geothermal wells based on high resolution sensor data and low resolution chemical analyses","authors":"A. Dietmaier, T. Baumann","doi":"10.5194/adgeo-58-189-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-58-189-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Geothermal waters provide a great resource to generate clean energy,\u0000however, there is a notorious lack of high quality data on these\u0000waters. The scarcity of deep geothermal aquifer information is\u0000largely due to inaccessibility and high analysis costs.\u0000However, multiple operators use geothermal wells in Lower Bavaria and Upper\u0000Austria for balneological (medical and wellness) applications as well\u0000as for heat mining purposes.\u0000The state of the art sampling strategy budgets for a sampling frequency\u0000of 1 year. Previous studies have shown that robust groundwater data\u0000requires sampling intervals of 1–3 months, however, these\u0000studies are based on shallow aquifers which are more likely to be\u0000influenced by seasonal changes in meteorological conditions.\u0000This study set out to assess whether yearly sampling adequately\u0000represents sub-yearly hydrochemical fluctuations in the aquifer by\u0000comparing yearly with quasi-continuous hydrochemical data\u0000at two wells in southeast Germany by assessing mean, trend and\u0000seasonality detection among the high and low temporal resolution\u0000data sets. Furthermore, the ability to produce reliable forecasts\u0000based on yearly data was examined. In order to test the applicability\u0000of virtual sensors to elevate the information content of yearly data,\u0000correlations between the individual parameters were assessed.\u0000The results of this study show that seasonal hydrochemical\u0000variations take place in deep aquifers, and are not adequately\u0000represented by yearly data points, as they are typically gathered\u0000at similar production states of the well and do not show varying\u0000states throughout the year. Forecasting on the basis of\u0000yearly data does not represent the data range of currently\u0000measured continuous data. The limited data availability did not\u0000allow for strong correlations to be determined.\u0000We found that annual measurements, if taken at regular intervals and\u0000roughly the same production rates, represent only a snapshot of the\u0000possible hydrochemical compositions. Neither mean values, trends nor\u0000seasonality was accurately captured by yearly data. This could lead to a violation of stability criteria for mineral water, or to problems in the geothermal operation (scalings, degassing). We thus recommend\u0000a new testing regime of at least 3 samples a year. While not a replacement for the detailed analyses, under the right circumstances, and when trained with more substantial data sets, viertual sensors provide a robust method in this setting to trigger further actions.\u0000","PeriodicalId":7329,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Geosciences","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85871747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-27DOI: 10.5194/adgeo-59-69-2023
M. Teixidó, Diego Schmidlin, Jiaqi Xu, L. Scheiber, Maria José Chesa, E. Vázquez-Suñé
Abstract. Today's cities face simultaneous challenges due to rapidly growing populations, urban sprawl, climate change, and environmental pollution which pose a pressure on our traditional urban drinking water supplies. In this context, stormwater could augment our over-drafted urban groundwater resources. However, urban stormwater runoff carries a myriad of dissolved contaminants (e.g., organics, metals, nutrients), which pose a serious risk to the environmental and public health. Moreover, dissolved contaminants of urban origin – such as trace metals and organic compounds of emerging concern – may not be adequately removed by conventional stormwater treatments. Therefore, it is of the utmost importance to fully understand stormwater contaminant presence, transport, and fate in the built environment to design novel or improve conventional treatment systems. To address this knowledge gap, we have conducted 7 field sampling campaigns during storm events at different Barcelona locations (within 3 districts) to investigate contaminant presence in different urban compartments (e.g., roofs, conventional streets with automobile traffic, pedestrian streets, and green infrastructure outlets). Preliminary results have confirmed presence of toxic metals in Barcelona urban rain and stormwater runoff along with significant differences depending on the catchment areas. After a storm event, trace metal concentrations followed the order: roof rain <