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The Dew Particle Interception Abilities of Typical Plants in Northeast China Plant Leaves Capture Particles in Dew 东北典型植物叶片对露珠颗粒的截留能力
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2022-08-18 DOI: 10.1155/2022/7157012
Yingying Xu, Yingbo Dou, Yan Yi, Xu Yang
The dew condensation frequency is high, and the dew amount is heavy in urban ecosystems. During the condensation process, particulate matter acts as a condensation core, playing an important role in purifying the air. At night, dew mainly condenses on plant leaf surfaces, the plant leaves settle the particles in the dew, and some of the particles are resuspended into the atmosphere in the process of dew evaporation after sunrise. This paper monitored the condensation and evaporation processes of dew on four common plants in Changchun city from June to September 2020. By analyzing the mass and size of particles on different leaves after dew condensation and evaporation, the ability of different plants to retain particles in dew was analyzed. The results showed that there was no significant difference in the TSP capture ability during dew condensation between Buxus sinica (Rehd. et Wils.) Cheng subsp. sinica var. parvifolia M. Cheng, Syringa oblata Lindl., Hemiptelea davidii (Hance) Planch., and Pinus tabuliformis Carrière, with a TSP content of 0.21 ± 0.06 μg/cm2. Coarse particulate matter is the main type of deposit in the dew condensation stage. Particulate deposition varied according to species, leaf shape, and microstructure. The proportion of TSP remaining on leaves after dew evaporation from Pinus tabuliformis Carrière, Hemiptelea davidii (Hance) Planch., Buxus sinica (Rehd. et Wils.) Cheng subsp. sinica var. parvifolia M. Cheng, and Syringa oblata Lindl. tree was 89.7 ± 3.9%, 80.6 ± 3.6%, 75.9 ± 4.5%, and 71.4 ± 3.7%, respectively. The ability of the leaves to trap fine particles was significantly higher than that for coarse particles ( P < 0.05 ) after dew evaporation. The highest amount of particle captured by Syringa oblata Lindl. individual was 15.17 g/y during dew condensation, and the amount of remaining particles after dew evaporation was 10.83 g/y. This paper provides a theoretical basis for the selection of tree species for urban greening.
城市生态系统结露频率高,结露量大。在冷凝过程中,颗粒物作为冷凝核心,在净化空气中起着重要的作用。夜间,露珠主要凝结在植物叶片表面,植物叶片将露珠中的颗粒沉淀下来,日出后露珠蒸发过程中,部分颗粒重新悬浮到大气中。本文对2020年6 - 9月长春市4种常见植物的露珠凝结和蒸发过程进行了监测。通过分析露水凝结蒸发后不同叶片上颗粒的质量和大小,分析不同植物对露水中颗粒的保留能力。结果表明,黄杨和黄杨在凝露过程中对TSP的捕获能力无显著差异。外星人会)。程无性系种群。郑文华,丁香。,大鲵半爪;油松的总皂苷含量为0.21±0.06 μg/cm2。粗颗粒物质是结露阶段沉积物的主要类型。颗粒沉积因植物种类、叶片形状和微观结构而异。油松(Pinus tabulformis carricarrire, Hemiptelea davidii (Hance) Planch)的水分蒸发后残留在叶片上的TSP比例。中国黄杨(Rehd);外星人会)。程无性系种群。中国紫丁香,小花叶,丁香。树是89.7±3.9%,80.6±3.6%,75.9±4.5%,分别和71.4±3.7%。露水蒸发后,叶片对细颗粒的捕获能力显著高于粗颗粒(P < 0.05)。紫丁香捕获的颗粒量最高。结露过程中个体量为15.17 g/y,结露蒸发后剩余颗粒量为10.83 g/y。本文为城市绿化树种的选择提供了理论依据。
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引用次数: 1
Land-Atmosphere Energy Exchange Characteristics in Ali of Tibetan 西藏阿里地区陆-气能量交换特征
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2022-08-11 DOI: 10.1155/2022/7374193
Ge Wang, Lin Han, Xingying Tang
Based on the comprehensive data from the land-atmosphere interaction observation station in Ali of Tibetan in 2019, the characteristics of land-atmosphere energy exchange processes in Ali were analyzed. The results indicated that the timing of the mean intraday net radiation peak in Ali over the past 20 years has been delayed, and the month when the maximum monthly mean net radiation occurred has been delayed by about 2 months; the maximum daily mean, maximum monthly mean, minimum monthly mean, and annual mean sensible heat were 99.63 w/m2, 76.53 w/m2, 17.47 w/m2, and 46.74 w/m2, respectively, and the maximum daily mean, maximum monthly mean, minimum monthly mean, and annual mean latent heat flux were 73.27 w/m2, 36.13 w/m2, 0.67 w/m2, and 8.32 w/m2, respectively; and the monthly mean sensible heat was greater than the latent heat in all months.
基于西藏阿里地区2019年陆-大气相互作用观测站的综合数据,分析了阿里地区陆-大气能量交换过程的特征。结果表明,阿里近20年平均日内净辐射峰值出现的时间有所延迟,最大月平均净辐射出现的月份延迟了约2个月;最大日平均值、最大月平均值、最小月平均值和年平均显热分别为99.63 w/m2,76.53 w/m2,17.47 w/m2和46.74 最大日平均值、最大月平均值、最小月平均值和年平均潜热通量分别为73.27 w/m2,36.13 w/m2,0.67 w/m2和8.32 w/m2;各月平均显热均大于潜热。
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引用次数: 0
Deep Learning-Based English-Chinese Translation Research 基于深度学习的英汉翻译研究
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2022-07-14 DOI: 10.1155/2022/3208167
Yao Huang, Y. Xin
Neural machine translation (NMT) has been bringing exciting news in the field of machine translation since its emergence. However, because NMT only employs single neural networks to convert natural languages, it suffers from two drawbacks in terms of reducing translation time: NMT is more sensitive to sentence length than statistical machine translation and the end-to-end implementation process fails to make explicit use of linguistic knowledge to improve translation performance. The network model performance of various deep learning machine translation tasks was constructed and compared in English-Chinese bilingual direction, and the defects of each network were solved by using an attention mechanism. The problems of gradient disappearance and gradient explosion are easy to occur in the recurrent neural network in the long-distance sequence. The short and long-term memory networks cannot reflect the information weight problems in long-distance sequences. In this study, through the comparison of examples, it is concluded that the introduction of an attention mechanism can improve the attention of context information in the process of model generation of the target language sequence, thus translating restore degree and fluency higher. This study proposes a neural machine translation method based on the divide-and-conquer strategy. Based on the idea of divide-and-conquer, this method identifies and extracts the longest noun phrase in a sentence and retains special identifiers or core words to form a sentence frame with the rest of the sentence. This method of translating the longest noun phrase and sentence frame separately by the neural machine translation system, and then recombining the translation, alleviates the poor performance of neural machine translation in long sentences. Experimental results show that the BLEU score of translation obtained by the proposed method has improved by 0.89 compared with the baseline method.
神经机器翻译(NMT)自诞生以来,一直在机器翻译领域带来令人兴奋的消息。然而,由于NMT只使用单个神经网络来转换自然语言,因此在减少翻译时间方面存在两个缺点:NMT对句子长度比统计机器翻译更敏感,端到端的实现过程未能明确利用语言知识来提高翻译性能。在英汉双语方向上,构建并比较了各种深度学习机器翻译任务的网络模型性能,并利用注意力机制解决了每个网络的缺陷。递归神经网络在长距离序列中容易出现梯度消失和梯度爆炸的问题。短期和长期记忆网络不能反映长距离序列中的信息权重问题。本研究通过实例比较得出结论,在目标语序列的模型生成过程中,引入注意机制可以提高对上下文信息的注意,从而提高翻译的还原度和流利度。本文提出了一种基于分译策略的神经机器翻译方法。该方法基于分而治之的思想,识别并提取句子中最长的名词短语,并保留特殊的标识符或核心词,与句子的其余部分形成句子框架。这种通过神经机器翻译系统分别翻译最长的名词短语和句子框架,然后重新组合翻译的方法,缓解了神经机器翻译在长句中表现不佳的问题。实验结果表明,与基线方法相比,该方法获得的翻译BLEU分数提高了0.89。
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引用次数: 1
Nitrogen Inversion Model in a Wetland Environment Based on the Canopy Reflectance of Emergent Plants 基于新生植物冠层反射率的湿地环境氮素反演模型
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2022-07-14 DOI: 10.1155/2022/8800371
Dongli Wu, Dongliang Zhao, Yongchao Zhu, Chao Shen, Hongxi Xue
Reuse of reclaimed water in constructed wetlands is a promising way to conserve water resources and improve water quality, and it is playing a very important role in wetland restoration and reconstruction. This study utilized reflectance spectra of wetland vegetation to estimate nitrogen content in water in the Beijing Bai River constructed wetland, a typically constructed wetland that uses reclaimed water. Canopy reflectance spectra of two dominant plants in the wetland, including reed and cattail, were acquired using a spectrometer (350–2500 nm). Simultaneously, water samples were collected to measure water quality. To establish the appreciate relationship between total nitrogen content (TN) and reflectance spectra, both simple and multiple regression models, including simple ration spectral index (SR), normalized difference spectral index (ND), stepwise multiple linear regression (SMLR) model, and partial least squares regression (PLSR), were adopted in this study. The results showed that (1) compared with simple regression models (SR and ND), multiple regressions models (SMLR and PLSR) could provide a more accurate estimation of TN concentration in the wetland environment. Among these models, the PLSR model had the highest accuracy and was proven to be the most useful tool to reveal the relationship between the spectral reflectance of wetland plants and the total nitrogen consistency of wetland at the canopy scale. (2) The inversion effect of TN concentration in water is slightly better than that of wetland vegetation, and the reflection spectrum of the reed can predict TN concentration more accurately than that of cattail. The finding not only provides solid evidence for the potential application of remote sensing to detect water eutrophication but also enhances our understanding of the monitoring and management of water quality in urban wetlands using recycled water.
人工湿地中水回用是保护水资源、改善水质的一种很有前途的方式,在湿地恢复重建中发挥着非常重要的作用。本研究利用湿地植被的反射光谱来估算北京白河人工湿地(一个典型的利用再生水的人工湿地)水中的氮含量。湿地中两种优势植物(包括芦苇和香蒲)的冠层反射光谱是使用光谱仪(350–2500 nm)。同时,采集水样以测量水质。为了建立总氮含量(TN)与反射光谱之间的良好关系,本研究采用了简单比值光谱指数(SR)、归一化差分光谱指数(ND)、逐步多元线性回归(SMLR)模型和偏最小二乘回归(PLSR)等简单和多元回归模型。结果表明:(1)与简单回归模型(SR和ND)相比,多元回归模型(SMLR和PLSR)可以更准确地估计湿地环境中的TN浓度。在这些模型中,PLSR模型具有最高的精度,被证明是在冠层尺度上揭示湿地植物光谱反射率与湿地总氮浓度之间关系的最有用的工具。(2) 水中TN浓度的反演效果略好于湿地植被,芦苇的反射光谱比香蒲的反射光谱更准确地预测TN浓度。这一发现不仅为遥感技术在水体富营养化检测中的潜在应用提供了坚实的证据,而且增强了我们对使用再生水监测和管理城市湿地水质的理解。
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引用次数: 1
The Influence of Rainfall and Evaporization Wetting-Drying Cycles on the Slope Stability 降雨和蒸发干湿循环对边坡稳定性的影响
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2022-07-09 DOI: 10.1155/2022/5775424
Ya Zhao
The decay of soil strength and the change of soil infiltration characteristics caused by the dry and wet cycle effect generated by the rainfall-evaporation process are important factors that induce slope instability. How to consider the effect of soil strength decay and water-soil characteristic curve hysteresis effect on transient stability change of slope is the key to solve this problem. In this paper, transient stability analysis of slopes considering soil strength decay and water-soil characteristic curve hysteresis is carried out based on Geo-Studio. The results of the study showed that the change of transient safety factor of the slope caused by rainfall-evaporation dry and wet cycle process has an overall decreasing trend and the safety factor decreased by 43% compared to the initial state. The seepage characteristics of the rainfall-evaporation dry-wet cycle have certain regularity. The location of slope measurement points has a greater influence on the magnitude of the pore pressure change: foot of slope > middle of slope > top of slope. Also, there is a significant response hysteresis in the change of pore pressure with increasing depth at the same location. The rainfall intensity has a certain influence on the change of slope safety factor, but its influence is not obvious when the rainfall intensity exceeds a certain amount.
降雨蒸发过程产生的干湿循环效应引起的土体强度衰减和土体入渗特性变化是诱发边坡失稳的重要因素。如何考虑土体强度衰减和水土特征曲线滞后效应对边坡瞬态稳定变化的影响是解决这一问题的关键。本文基于Geo-Studio进行了考虑土体强度衰减和水土特征曲线滞后的边坡瞬态稳定分析。研究结果表明:降雨-蒸发干湿循环过程引起的边坡瞬态安全系数变化总体呈减小趋势,安全系数较初始状态下降43%;降雨-蒸发干湿循环渗流特征具有一定的规律性。坡面测点位置对孔隙压力变化幅度的影响较大:坡脚>坡中部>坡顶。同一位置孔隙压力随深度增加的变化存在显著的响应滞后。降雨强度对边坡安全系数的变化有一定影响,但当降雨强度超过一定数量时,其影响不明显。
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引用次数: 1
Analysis of Observed Trends in Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Different Agroecologies of Gurage Zone, Southern Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚南部Gurage地区不同农业生态的日温度和降水极值观测趋势分析
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2022-07-07 DOI: 10.1155/2022/4745123
Zelalem Dendir, B. Birhanu
Ethiopian climate-sensitive economy is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate-related extreme events. Thus, examining extreme daily precipitation and temperature in the context of climate change is a critical factor in advocating climate change adaptation at the local scales. Spatial changes of climate indices for extreme precipitation and temperatures were conducted for the period 1986–2016 in three different agroecologies of the Gurage zone, Southern Ethiopia. The study used the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator to estimate the trend and magnitude of changes in precipitation and temperature. The analysis from the observation indicates that there had been a consistent warming trend and inconsistent changes in precipitation extremes in the study agroecologies. A statistically significant increase in the numbers of warm days and nights and a statistically significant reduction in the numbers of cold days and nights were observed in most of the agroecologies. The duration of extreme trend showed inconsistency; however, a drier condition is observed in lowland agroecology. Therefore, based on the findings of this study, appropriate climate adaptation efforts are needed at the local scale.
埃塞俄比亚对气候敏感的经济特别容易受到气候相关极端事件的影响。因此,在气候变化的背景下研究极端日降水量和温度是在地方范围内倡导适应气候变化的一个关键因素。1986年至2016年期间,在埃塞俄比亚南部Gurage地区的三种不同农业生态中,对极端降水和温度的气候指数进行了空间变化。该研究使用Mann–Kendall(MK)检验和Sen的斜率估计器来估计降水和温度变化的趋势和幅度。观测结果的分析表明,在研究的农业生态中,出现了持续的变暖趋势和不一致的极端降水变化。在大多数农业生态中,观察到温暖的白天和夜晚的数量在统计上显著增加,寒冷的白天和晚上的数量在统计学上显著减少。极端趋势持续时间不一致;然而,在低地农业生态学中观察到了更干燥的条件。因此,根据这项研究的结果,需要在地方范围内做出适当的气候适应努力。
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引用次数: 4
A Review of the Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism in the Arid Areas: A Case Study of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in China 气候变化对干旱地区旅游业影响的研究——以新疆维吾尔自治区为例
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2022-07-02 DOI: 10.1155/2022/8768542
Shijin Wang, Xing-gang Ma, Xie Jia
Tourism is more sensitive and susceptible in global arid regions to climate change than other sectors, and climate change mainly affects the behavior of tourists, selection of tourist destinations, tourism resources, and tourism safety. China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) is a representative area of the global arid region. To review its comprehensive impacts of climate change on tourism has indicative significance for the global arid region tourism industry to cope with climate change impacts. On the whole, the impacts of climate change on tourism in the XUAR will coexist with opportunities and challenges both at present and in the future. The XUAR is experiencing or will experience climatic process of warming and wetting. For the tourism climate comfort and extension of suitable travel period, the opportunities far outweigh the risks (high reliability). However, future climate change is expected to have great negative effects on cultural heritages, glacier and snow resources, and agricultural landscapes in arid areas of northwest China (high reliability). The above impacts are potential and long-term, and the measures should be taken as soon as possible to mitigate and adapt to climate change challenges to tourism.
全球干旱区旅游业对气候变化的敏感性和易感性高于其他行业,气候变化主要影响游客行为、旅游目的地选择、旅游资源和旅游安全。中国新疆维吾尔自治区是全球干旱地区的代表性地区。研究气候变化对全球干旱区旅游业的综合影响,对全球干旱区旅游业应对气候变化影响具有指导意义。总体上看,气候变化对新疆旅游的影响是机遇与挑战并存的。新疆正在经历或将经历增温增湿的气候过程。对于旅游气候舒适性和适宜旅游时间的延长,机会远大于风险(高可靠性)。然而,未来气候变化对西北干旱区的文化遗产、冰川和积雪资源以及农业景观将产生较大的负面影响(高可靠度)。上述影响是潜在的、长期的,应尽快采取措施缓解和适应气候变化给旅游业带来的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Performance of MODIS Deep Blue Collection 6.1 Aerosol Optical Depth Products Over Indonesia: Spatiotemporal Variations and Aerosol Types 印尼上空MODIS深蓝采集6.1气溶胶光学深度产品的性能:时空变化和气溶胶类型
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2022-06-28 DOI: 10.1155/2022/7544310
R. Hutauruk, D. S. Permana, I. A. Rangga, Cici Sucianingsih, T. A. Nuraini
This study aims to evaluate the performance of the long-term Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue (DB) Collection 6.1 (C6.1) in determining the spatiotemporal variation of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aerosol types over Indonesia. For this purpose, monthly MODIS DB AOD datasets are directly compared with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Version 3 Level 2.0 (cloud-screened and quality-assured) monthly measurements at 8 sites throughout Indonesia. The results indicate that MODIS DB AOD retrievals and AERONET AOD measurements have a high correlation in Sumatra Island (i.e., Kototabang (r = 0.88) and Jambi (r = 0.9)) and Kalimantan Island (i.e., Palangkaraya (r = 0.89) and Pontianak (r = 0.92)). However, the correlations are low in Bandung, Palu, and Sorong. In general, MODIS DB AOD tends to overestimate AERONET AOD at all sites by 16 to 61% and can detect extreme fire events in Sumatra and Kalimantan Islands quite well. Aerosol types in Indonesia mostly consist of clean continental, followed by biomass burning/urban industrial and mixed aerosols. Palu and Sorong had the highest clean continental aerosol contribution (90%), while Bandung had the highest biomass burning/urban-industrial aerosol contribution to atmospheric composition (93.7%). For mixed aerosols, the highest contribution was found in Pontianak, with a proportion of 48.4%. Spatially, the annual mean AOD in the western part of Indonesia is higher than in the eastern part. Seasonally, the highest AOD is observed during the period of September–November, which is associated with the emergence of fire events.
本研究旨在评估长期Terra中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)深蓝(DB)系列6.1(C6.1)在确定印度尼西亚上空气溶胶光学深度(AOD)和气溶胶类型的时空变化方面的性能。为此,将每月MODIS DB AOD数据集与Aerosol Robotic Network(AERONET)Version 3 Level 2.0(云屏蔽和质量保证)在印度尼西亚各地8个站点的每月测量值进行直接比较。结果表明,MODIS DB AOD反演和AERONET AOD测量在苏门答腊岛具有很高的相关性(即Kototabang(r = 0.88)和Jambi(r = 0.9))和加里曼丹岛(即巴朗卡拉亚(r = 0.89)和Pontianak(r = 0.92))。然而,万隆、巴鲁和索隆的相关性较低。一般来说,MODIS DB AOD倾向于将所有地点的AERONET AOD高估16%至61%,并且可以很好地探测苏门答腊岛和加里曼丹群岛的极端火灾事件。印度尼西亚的气溶胶类型主要包括清洁大陆,其次是生物质燃烧/城市工业和混合气溶胶。巴鲁和索隆的清洁大陆气溶胶贡献率最高(90%),而万隆的生物质燃烧/城市工业气溶胶对大气成分的贡献率最高,为93.7%。对于混合气溶胶,蓬蒂亚纳克的贡献率最大,为48.4%。从空间上看,印尼西部的年平均AOD高于东部。从季节上看,9月至11月的AOD最高,这与火灾事件的出现有关。
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引用次数: 2
Meteorological Drought Monitoring Based on Satellite CHIRPS Product over Gamo Zone, Southern Ethiopia 基于卫星CHIRPS产品的埃塞俄比亚南部加莫地区气象干旱监测
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2022-06-28 DOI: 10.1155/2022/9323263
Amba Shalishe, A. Bhowmick, Kumneger Elias
Drought is a frequent occurrence in semidesert areas of southern Ethiopia that significantly affect regional, social, economic, and environmental conditions. Lack of rainfall monitoring network, instrument measurement, and failure are major bottlenecks for agro-and hydroclimate research in developing countries. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the performance of CHIRPS rainfall product and to assess meteorological drought using SPI for the period 2000 to 2020 over Gamo Zone, southern Ethiopia. The performance of CHIRPS v2 was assessed and compared to station observations (2000–2020) in the study domain to derive SPI on a three-month timescale. The Pearson correlation coefficient (R), bias, probability of bias (PBias), mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and Nash simulation efficiency (NSE) values across the zone for CHIRPS v2 were found to be 0.88, 1.02, 2.56, 0.25, 22.41, 33.14, and 0.77, respectively. The results indicate that CHIRPS performed good ability to analyze the drought characteristics in the Gamo Zone. The spatial and temporal distribution method of meteorological drought has been evaluated using the Climate Data Tool (CDT). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was computed using the gamma distribution method. The magnitude of (SPI-3) of monthly and seasonal (MAM) meteorological drought in the zone from 2000 to 2020. The result shows that the known historic drought years (2014, 2015, 2010, 2009, and 2008) were indicated very well. Furthermore, sever and extreme droughts were observed in 2008 and 2009 with drought duration of 6.7 and 6.3, respectively, in most areas of the zone. Hence, this study revealed that CHIRPS can be a useful supplement for measuring rainfall data to estimate rainfall and drought monitoring in this region.
干旱是埃塞俄比亚南部半沙漠地区经常发生的干旱,严重影响了地区、社会、经济和环境状况。缺乏降雨监测网络、仪器测量和故障是发展中国家农业和水文气候研究的主要瓶颈。本研究的目的是评估CHIRPS降雨产品的性能,并利用SPI评估2000 - 2020年埃塞俄比亚南部加莫地区的气象干旱。对CHIRPS v2的性能进行了评估,并将其与研究区域内的站点观测(2000-2020年)进行了比较,以获得三个月时间尺度的SPI。CHIRPS v2的Pearson相关系数(R)、偏倚、偏倚概率(PBias)、平均误差(ME)、平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)和纳什模拟效率(NSE)值分别为0.88、1.02、2.56、0.25、22.41、33.14和0.77。结果表明,CHIRPS具有较好的分析加莫地区干旱特征的能力。利用气候数据工具(CDT)对气象干旱的时空分布方法进行了评价。采用伽玛分布法计算标准化降水指数(SPI)。2000 - 2020年该地区月、季气象干旱(MAM)指数(SPI-3)。结果表明,2014年、2015年、2010年、2009年和2008年的已知历史干旱年份具有较好的指示性。2008年和2009年,大部分地区出现了严重干旱和极端干旱,干旱持续时间分别为6.7和6.3。因此,该研究表明,CHIRPS可以作为测量降雨数据的有益补充,用于估计该地区的降雨和干旱监测。
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引用次数: 2
Evaluation of Hydropower Generation and Reservoir Operation under Climate Change from Kesem Reservoir, Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚Kesem水库气候变化下的水力发电和水库运行评价
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2022-06-22 DOI: 10.1155/2022/3336257
Kinfe Bereda Mirani, Mesfin Amaru Ayele, T. K. Lohani, Tigistu Yisihak Ukumo
Climate changes significantly cause the precipitation deficiency and in turn reduce the inflow amount in reservoir affecting hydroelectric power generation. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate hydropower generation and reservoir operation under climate change from Kesem reservoir. Recent Representative Pathway (RCP) scenarios were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on power generation. Power transformation equation and variance scaling approach were amalgamated to adjust the bias correction of precipitation and temperature, respectively. Bias, root mean square error, and coefficient of variation were used to check the accuracy of projected rainfall. The base and future precipitation, temperature, and evaporation trend was analysed using the Mann–Kendall test. The flow calibration and validation were carried out by the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), and hydropower generation was evaluated with reservoir simulation model (MODSIM 8.1) under climate scenarios. The performance of the model was found good with Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) of 0.72 and coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.73 for calibration and NSE of 0.74 and R2 of 0.75 for validation. Projected future climate scenarios predicted increasing and decreasing trend of temperature and precipitation, respectively. For RCP4.5 climate scenario, the average energy generation is likely to decrease by 0.64% and 0.82% in both short-term (2021–2050) and long-term (2051–2080), respectively. In case of RCP8.5 climate scenario, the average energy generation will be decreased by 1.06% and 1.35% for short-term and long-term, respectively. Remarkable reduction of energy generation was revealed in RCP8.5 with relation to RCP4.5 scenario. This indicates that there will be high energy fluctuation and decreasing trend in the future energy generation. The research finding is crucial for decision-makers, power authorities, governmental and nongovernmental organizations, and watershed management agencies to take care for sustainability in the future hydropower generation in the Kesem reservoir.
气候变化显著导致降水不足,进而减少水库入水量,影响水力发电。本研究的主要目的是评估Kesem水库在气候变化下的水力发电和水库运行。最近的代表路径(RCP)情景用于评估气候变化对发电的影响。将幂变换方程和方差标度法相结合,分别调整降水和温度的偏差校正。偏差、均方根误差和变异系数用于检查预测降雨量的准确性。使用Mann-Kendall检验分析了基本和未来的降水、温度和蒸发趋势。流量校准和验证由水文工程中心水文建模系统(HEC-HMS)进行,水力发电由水库模拟模型(MODSIM 8.1)在气候情景下进行评估。该模型的性能良好,Nash–Sutcliffe系数(NSE)为0.72,确定系数(R2)为0.73用于校准,NSE为0.74,R2为0.75用于验证。预测的未来气候情景分别预测了气温和降水量的上升和下降趋势。对于RCP4.5气候情景,短期(2021-2050年)和长期(2051-2080年)的平均发电量可能分别下降0.64%和0.82%。在RCP8.5气候情景中,短期和长期的平均发电量将分别减少1.06%和1.35%。与RCP4.5场景相比,RCP8.5中的发电量显著减少。这表明未来能源发电将出现较高的能源波动和下降趋势。这一研究结果对于决策者、电力当局、政府和非政府组织以及流域管理机构关心凯塞姆水库未来水力发电的可持续性至关重要。
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引用次数: 4
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Advances in Meteorology
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