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Journal of extreme events最新文献

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Author Index Volume 6 (2019) 作者索引第6卷(2019)
Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI: 10.1142/s219688881999001x
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引用次数: 0
How Do Social Media Users Link Different Types of Extreme Events to Climate Change? A Study of Twitter During 2008–2017 社交媒体用户如何将不同类型的极端事件与气候变化联系起来?2008-2017年推特研究
Pub Date : 2019-10-14 DOI: 10.1142/s2345737619500027
Walid Al-Saqaf, P. Berglez
This study examines how three types of extreme events (heat waves, droughts, floods) are mentioned together with climate change on social media. English-language Twitter use during 2008–2017 is analyzed, based on 1,127,996 tweets (including retweets). Frequencies and spikes of activity are compared and theoretically interpreted as reflecting complex relations between the extreme event factor (the occurrence of an extreme event); the media ecology factor (climate-change oriented statements/actions in the overall media landscape) and the digital action factor (activities on Twitter). Flooding was found to be by far the most tweeted of the three in connection to climate change, followed by droughts and heat waves. It also led when comparing spikes of activity. The dominance of floods is highly prevalent from 2014 onwards, triggered by flooding events (extreme event factor), the climate science controversy in US politics (media ecology factor) and the viral power of celebrities’ tweets (digital action factor).
这项研究考察了三种类型的极端事件(热浪、干旱、洪水)如何在社交媒体上与气候变化一起被提及。基于1127996条推文(包括转发),分析了2008-2017年期间英语推特的使用情况。对活动的频率和峰值进行了比较,并从理论上解释为反映了极端事件因素(极端事件的发生)之间的复杂关系;媒体生态因素(整体媒体格局中以气候变化为导向的声明/行动)和数字行动因素(推特上的活动)。洪水被发现是迄今为止与气候变化有关的三条推特中发布最多的,其次是干旱和热浪。在比较活动高峰时,它也起到了带头作用。从2014年起,洪水的主导地位非常普遍,这是由洪水事件(极端事件因素)、美国政治中的气候科学争议(媒体生态因素)和名人推文的病毒式力量(数字行动因素)引发的。
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引用次数: 9
Surveying After a Disaster: Capturing Elements of Vulnerability, Risk and Lessons Learned from a Household Survey in the Case Study of Hurricane Irma in Sint Maarten 灾后调查:捕捉脆弱性、风险因素以及从家庭调查中吸取的经验教训——以圣马丁飓风“伊尔玛”为例
Pub Date : 2019-10-14 DOI: 10.1142/S2345737619500015
Neiler Medina, Y. Abebe, Arlex Sanchez, Z. Vojinovic, I. Nikolic
On September 5 2017, a Category 5 Hurricane, named Irma, struck the Caribbean island of Sint Maarten causing destruction and loss of life across the territory. This paper presents a household survey and the main findings related to vulnerability and risk to extreme weather events in the aftermath of Hurricane Irma. The post-disaster context posed challenges in relation to data collection, determination of sample size and timing of the fieldwork. The survey was conducted using a combination of face-to-face interviews and web-administered questionnaires. This method proved useful in achieving a better coverage of the study area as well as obtaining a greater overall response rate. With regards to the timing of the survey, it was found that a period of six months between Hurricane Irma’s landfall and the field data campaign was adequate in terms of availability of resources and emotional distress of respondents. Data collected in the survey was categorized into general household information, hurricane preparedness and reaction, and risk perception/awareness. Survey findings show that the factors that increased vulnerability and risk on the island include a high tenancy rate, low insurance coverage, lack of house maintenance, disregard to building regulations (particularly on leased lands), low evacuation rate, not receiving a clear warning, and lack of preparation. The factors that reduce vulnerability include high hurricane awareness at a household level and high tendency of rebuilding houses with comparable quality to houses that can sustain hurricanes. Finally, recommendations are provided that could potentially reduce communities’ vulnerability and risk to hurricanes, and lessons learned in conducting household surveys after disasters.
2017年9月5日,一场名为“伊尔玛”的五级飓风袭击了加勒比海的圣马丁岛,在该地区造成了破坏和生命损失。本文介绍了一项家庭调查,以及与飓风“伊尔玛”过后极端天气事件的脆弱性和风险有关的主要发现。灾后环境对数据收集、样本量的确定和实地工作的时间安排提出了挑战。该调查采用面对面访谈和网络问卷相结合的方式进行。事实证明,这种方法有助于更好地覆盖研究区域,并获得更高的总体响应率。关于调查的时间安排,调查发现,从飓风“伊尔玛”登陆到实地数据活动之间的六个月时间,就资源的可用性和受访者的情绪困扰而言,是足够的。调查中收集的数据分为一般家庭信息、飓风准备和反应以及风险感知/意识。调查结果显示,岛上脆弱性和风险增加的因素包括租赁率高、保险覆盖率低、缺乏房屋维护、无视建筑法规(尤其是在租赁土地上)、疏散率低、没有得到明确警告以及缺乏准备。降低脆弱性的因素包括家庭对飓风的高度认识,以及重建质量与能够承受飓风的房屋相当的房屋的高趋势。最后,提出了可能降低社区受飓风影响的脆弱性和风险的建议,以及灾后进行家庭调查的经验教训。
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引用次数: 9
Challenges and Future Directions in Ocean Wave Modeling — A Review 海浪建模的挑战和未来方向——综述
Pub Date : 2019-10-14 DOI: 10.1142/s2345737619500040
P. Bhaskaran
An increasing number of instances in extreme weather events over the global oceans have deepened the concerns on the impact of climate change. The frequency of extreme weather events is also seen to increase attributes to climate change across the globe. In the Indian context, there has been about 285 reported flooding events over the period from 1950 to 2017 that affected nearly 850 million people with many causalities. As the global oceans become stormier, the effects are seen in rising sea level and infrastructural facilities. Major flooding events are caused by tropical cyclone-induced storm surge and associated breaking waves. These extreme weather events coupled with sea level rise have serious repercussions on the coastal vulnerability. Also recently, there is an upsurge in the intensity and tropical cyclone size that forms over the North Indian Ocean region that brought attention among the scientific community. The worst possible scenario of extreme water level can occur when the time of storm surge occurrence coincides with the astronomical high water. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview on the research developments and efforts made in ocean wave modeling in particular for the Indian seas. As per the Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the role and influence of ocean surface gravity wave in the climate system are considered to be very important. At present, numerical models are widely used and that can be used to hindcast and forecast the wave characteristics over both regional and global ocean basin scales. A detailed overview on the observational techniques is listed along with the historical perspective and recent developments in wind-wave modeling for the Indian seas. Recent developments in computing technology and advanced numerical techniques have made it possible to solve the complex problems in coastal science and engineering using state-of-the-art numerical models providing realistic estimates, cost effective and having immense potential in operational weather centers. This review also deals with some of the important issues and future directions in wind-wave modeling studies such as improvements required in momentum transfer, bottom dissipation, and rain–wave interaction effects that require detailed understanding and concentrated efforts.
全球海洋上越来越多的极端天气事件加深了人们对气候变化影响的担忧。极端天气事件的频率也被认为增加了全球气候变化的影响。在印度,1950年至2017年期间,据报道发生了约285起洪水事件,影响了近8.5亿人,造成多人死亡。随着全球海洋风暴的加剧,其影响体现在海平面上升和基础设施建设上。主要的水浸事件是由热带气旋引发的风暴潮和相关的破浪引起的。这些极端天气事件加上海平面上升,对沿海脆弱性产生了严重影响。同样在最近,北印度洋地区形成的热带气旋强度和规模激增,引起了科学界的关注。当风暴潮发生的时间与天文高水位重合时,可能会出现极端水位的最坏情况。这篇综述文章全面概述了海浪建模的研究进展和所做的努力,特别是印度海的海浪建模。根据政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的第五次评估报告,海洋表面重力波在气候系统中的作用和影响被认为是非常重要的。目前,数值模型得到了广泛的应用,可用于在区域和全球海盆尺度上对波浪特征进行事后预报。详细概述了观测技术,以及印度海风浪建模的历史前景和最新发展。计算技术和先进数值技术的最新发展使使用最先进的数值模型解决海岸科学和工程中的复杂问题成为可能,这些模型提供了现实的估计,具有成本效益,在运行的气象中心具有巨大潜力。这篇综述还涉及风浪建模研究中的一些重要问题和未来方向,如动量传递、底部耗散和雨波相互作用效应所需的改进,这些都需要详细的理解和集中的努力。
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引用次数: 11
Are we in the right path in using early warning systems? 我们在使用早期预警系统方面走对了吗?
Pub Date : 2019-06-01 DOI: 10.31223/osf.io/hxbwp
Venugopal R. Thandlam, A. Rutgersson, H. Rahaman
This paper focusses on the recent tsunami in Indonesia and the factors led to the mass killing. We also discussed the failure of early warning systems, steps, methods, and technologies, in general, to improve the early warning systems in the future to mitigate the loss of lives and property during these impending disasters. We believe that this paper is timely as Indonesia has seen one of the worst tsunamis in recent years and the threat is still on. Hence, we stress the importance of improving and strengthening the existing early warning systems.
本文着重介绍了印尼最近发生的海啸及其造成大规模死亡的因素。我们还讨论了预警系统的故障、步骤、方法和技术,以在未来改进预警系统,减轻这些迫在眉睫的灾难中的生命和财产损失。我们认为,这篇论文是及时的,因为印度尼西亚经历了近年来最严重的海啸之一,而且威胁仍然存在。因此,我们强调改进和加强现有预警系统的重要性。
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引用次数: 1
Introduction to Special Issue on The Caribbean after Irma and Maria: Climate, Development & the Post-Hurricane Context 《伊尔玛和玛丽亚之后的加勒比:气候、发展与飓风后的背景》特刊简介
Pub Date : 2019-04-03 DOI: 10.1142/S2345737619020019
J. Popke, Kevon Rhiney
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引用次数: 14
The Manifestation of Climate Injustices: The Post-Hurricane Irma Conflicts Surrounding Barbuda’s Communal Land Tenure 气候不公正的表现:飓风后围绕巴布达公共土地使用权的伊尔玛冲突
Pub Date : 2019-04-03 DOI: 10.1142/S2345737619400025
A. Baptiste, H. Devonish
Hurricane Irma caused significant destruction to the Caribbean during the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season. In its aftermath, many of these Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are left with the dilemma of seeking ways to rebuild in some cases entire nation states. Using the case study of Antigua and Barbuda, where Barbuda was the first Caribbean island to receive a direct hit from Hurricane Irma, the paper begins to explore the ways in which the global system of exploitation of SIDS exacerbates internal historical conflicts which is a manifestation of climate injustices. Specifically, the Barbudans’ relative privilege in having inherited communal land rights have become, for the government, the barrier standing in the way of the only alternative funding sources for reconstruction, foreign tourism investment. Using the theoretical underpinnings of climate justice, we argue that the causers of climate change, who are generally the inheritors of the historic colonization, exploitation and impoverishment of these states, will effectively benefit from the intensity of Hurricane Irma, given that they will eventually get access to Barbudan land if the communal land rights are revoked.
2017年大西洋飓风季节,飓风厄玛对加勒比地区造成了重大破坏。在其后果中,许多这些小岛屿发展中国家(SIDS)面临着寻求重建方法的困境,在某些情况下,整个民族国家。本文以安提瓜和巴布达为例,探讨了全球对小岛屿发展中国家的剥削加剧了内部历史冲突的方式,这是气候不公正的表现。安提瓜和巴布达是第一个受到飓风“厄玛”直接袭击的加勒比岛屿。具体地说,巴布达人继承公共土地权利的相对特权,对政府来说,已成为阻碍重建的唯一替代资金来源,即外国旅游投资的障碍。利用气候正义的理论基础,我们认为,气候变化的罪魁祸首通常是这些国家历史殖民、剥削和贫困的继承者,他们将有效地从飓风伊尔玛的强度中受益,因为如果公共土地权利被撤销,他们最终将获得巴布达的土地。
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引用次数: 10
Decolonizing Resilience: The Case of Reconstructing the Coffee Region of Puerto Rico After Hurricanes Irma and Maria 复原力的去殖民化:以飓风“伊尔玛”和“玛丽亚”后重建波多黎各咖啡区为例
Pub Date : 2019-04-03 DOI: 10.1142/S2345737619400013
Ramon Borges-Mendez, C. Caron
The term resilience has saliency in the scholarship and policy on post-disaster management and disaster-risk reduction. In this paper, we assess the use of resilience as a concept for post-disaster reconstruction in Puerto Rico and offer a critique of the standard definition. This critique focuses on the primacy of Puerto Rico’s colonial relations with the United States meshed with decades of political mismanagement of the island’s economic and natural resources by local authorities and political parties. For resilience to be a useful conceptual device, we argue for decolonizing resilience and show the relevance of such an argument through a case study of the island’s coffee-growing region. Decolonizing resilience exposes power inequities and the individuating nature of post-disaster reconstruction to illustrate how collective action and direct participation of local actors and communities carves out autonomous spaces of engagement. Decolonizing resilience necessitates a contextualized analysis of resilience, taking into account “the politics of resilience” embedded in the island’s colonial history and the policy bottlenecks it creates.
弹性一词在灾后管理和减少灾害风险的学术研究和政策中具有重要意义。在本文中,我们评估了弹性作为波多黎各灾后重建概念的使用,并对标准定义提出了批评。这一批评集中在波多黎各与美国的殖民关系的首要地位,以及几十年来地方当局和政党对该岛经济和自然资源的政治管理不善。为了使弹性成为一个有用的概念工具,我们主张将弹性去殖民化,并通过对该岛咖啡种植区的案例研究来展示这种论点的相关性。非殖民化复原力揭示了权力不平等和灾后重建的个体化性质,说明了地方行动者和社区的集体行动和直接参与如何开辟出自主参与的空间。非殖民化复原力需要对复原力进行情境化分析,考虑到该岛殖民历史中嵌入的“复原力政治”及其造成的政策瓶颈。
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引用次数: 8
The Resilience of Land Tenure Regimes During Hurricane Irma: How Colonial Legacies Impact Disaster Response and Recovery in Antigua and Barbuda 飓风“伊尔玛”期间土地保有权制度的复原力:殖民遗产如何影响安提瓜和巴布达的救灾和恢复
Pub Date : 2019-04-03 DOI: 10.1142/S2345737619400049
C. Look, Erin Friedman, Geneviève Godbout
Antiguans and Barbudans have both raised concerns over the disaster recovery solutions put in place to mitigate damages sustained during Hurricane Irma in September 2017. In Barbuda, the potential loss of commonhold land ownership and the possibility of a land grab by foreign investors has tended to portray the island as a victim of disaster capitalism rather than as a resilient community. At the same time, neither island has addressed its vulnerabilities to future extreme events through any substantive legislative response, or immediate policy shifts. While it is vital that we attend to the exploitation of vulnerable populations and the efforts of economic restructuring that follow a disaster to better understand the impact of major weather events, we propose that the threat to commonhold land tenure in Barbuda and the legislative overreach of Antigua’s government on the matter following Hurricane Irma can be understood in terms of various landscape legacies and continuities rooted in ongoing struggles over land in Antigua and Barbuda spanning the periods of slavery, emancipation, and post-colonial independence. This paper situates the past with distinction in order to understand the resilience of land tenure regimes, and the ways in which this resilience affects the quality of post-disaster response in the post-Irma era. Using path dependency theory, we examine the tensions over land tenure in response to Hurricane Irma within the framework of colonial legacies of land rights. More specifically, this paper attempts to examine how these land tenure regimes took shape, and in what ways it has been contested and resisted over time. Our findings demonstrate how the imposition of modern land-use solutions atop a landscape shaped by 18th- and 19th-century practices complicates the mandate to plan for and mitigate the impacts of future disasters. The impact of Hurricane Irma on Barbuda further shows how resistance to legislative change might result in a form of ecological restraint rooted in social-cohesion and commonhold land tenure that is now coming under threat.
安提瓜和巴布达都对为减轻2017年9月飓风“厄玛”造成的损失而实施的灾难恢复解决方案表示担忧。在巴布达,公共土地所有权的潜在损失和外国投资者攫取土地的可能性往往使该岛成为灾难资本主义的受害者,而不是一个有复原力的社区。与此同时,这两个岛屿都没有通过任何实质性的立法反应或立即的政策转变来解决其对未来极端事件的脆弱性。虽然我们必须关注对弱势群体的剥削以及灾后经济结构调整的努力,以便更好地了解重大天气事件的影响,我们认为,在“厄玛”飓风过后,巴布达公有土地使用权面临的威胁,以及安提瓜和巴布达政府在这一问题上的立法越权,可以从安提瓜和巴布达在奴隶制、解放和后殖民独立时期持续不断的土地斗争中产生的各种景观遗产和连续性来理解。本文对过去进行了区分,以便了解土地权属制度的恢复力,以及这种恢复力如何影响“伊尔玛”后时代的灾后响应质量。利用路径依赖理论,我们在土地权利的殖民遗产框架内研究了应对飓风Irma的土地权属紧张关系。更具体地说,本文试图研究这些土地所有权制度是如何形成的,以及随着时间的推移,它以何种方式受到质疑和抵制。我们的研究结果表明,在18世纪和19世纪的实践形成的景观之上,强加现代土地利用解决方案如何使规划和减轻未来灾害影响的任务复杂化。伊尔玛飓风对巴布达的影响进一步表明,对立法改革的抵制可能会导致植根于社会凝聚力和公共土地所有权的某种形式的生态限制,而这种限制现在正受到威胁。
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引用次数: 10
Bouncing Forward After Irma and Maria: Acknowledging Colonialism, Problematizing Resilience and Thinking Climate Justice 继伊尔玛和玛丽亚之后的跳跃:承认殖民主义、解决韧性问题和思考气候正义
Pub Date : 2019-04-03 DOI: 10.1142/S2345737619400037
A. Moulton, M. Machado
The 2017 hurricane season caused widespread devastation across Central America, the Caribbean and the South-Eastern United States. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria were among the most intense Atlantic hurricanes and the costliest for the Circum-Caribbean region. For the small islands of the Caribbean, the hurricanes highlighted the acute vulnerability to climate change. The scale of physical ruin and level of social dislocation, however, do not just reflect the outcomes of a natural hazard. Continued structural dependency and outright entanglement in colonial relationships complicated recovery and coordination of aid to affected communities across the region. We argue that the experiences and outcomes of hazards like Harvey, Irma and Maria therefore invite examinations of persisting colonial power dynamics in discussions of climate hazard. Using Foucauldian theory for such an examination, we problematize simply championing resilience, without noting the possibilities for its use as a biopolitical regime of governing life. Such an appraisal, we suggest, might clarify a path toward reparations and climate change justice.
2017年飓风季在中美洲、加勒比海和美国东南部造成了大范围的破坏。飓风“哈维”、“伊尔玛”和“玛丽亚”是大西洋强度最大的飓风之一,也是环加勒比地区损失最大的飓风。对于加勒比小岛屿来说,飓风凸显了气候变化的严重脆弱性。然而,物质破坏的规模和社会混乱的程度不仅反映了自然灾害的后果。持续的结构性依赖和殖民关系的彻底纠缠使该地区受影响社区的援助恢复和协调变得复杂。因此,我们认为,Harvey、Irma和Maria等灾害的经历和结果需要在气候灾害的讨论中审视持续存在的殖民权力动态。使用傅尔理论进行这样的研究,我们质疑仅仅支持韧性,而没有注意到它作为统治生活的生物政治制度的可能性。我们认为,这样的评估可能会澄清赔偿和气候变化正义的道路。
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引用次数: 48
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Journal of extreme events
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