Pub Date : 2021-09-08DOI: 10.1142/s2345737621500160
Reidar Staupe-Delgado
On March 11th, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the emerging COVID-19 threat a pandemic following the global spread of the virus. As countries around the world implemented emergency measures in a concerted effort to handle the emerging pandemic, the nature and implications of the different kinds of precautionary measures adopted have remained contested. The majority of countries opted for efforts to slow the rate of infection, whilst critics have argued for stricter and milder measures, respectively. The living experience of the pandemic is inherently temporal as it is shaped by sentiments of living in anticipation of the envisioned pandemic peak(s) and aftermath, as vividly illustrated with references to the need for ‘flattening the curve’ so as to reduce the impact of the looming or creeping crisis. This paper sets out to critically discuss the notion of pandemic ‘strategies’, recognizing also that governments altered their strategic stances throughout the initial phase of the pandemic. It is likely that the aftermath of the crisis will trigger discussions of what kind of response should be considered as best practice. Thus, greater attention to the notion of ‘strategies’ in light of the COVID-19 pandemic is in order.
{"title":"Life in Anticipation of the COVID-19 Pandemic ‘Peak’: Reflecting on ‘Strategies’ for and Variations in attempts at ‘Flattening the Curve’ and Managing the Crisis","authors":"Reidar Staupe-Delgado","doi":"10.1142/s2345737621500160","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2345737621500160","url":null,"abstract":"On March 11th, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the emerging COVID-19 threat a pandemic following the global spread of the virus. As countries around the world implemented emergency measures in a concerted effort to handle the emerging pandemic, the nature and implications of the different kinds of precautionary measures adopted have remained contested. The majority of countries opted for efforts to slow the rate of infection, whilst critics have argued for stricter and milder measures, respectively. The living experience of the pandemic is inherently temporal as it is shaped by sentiments of living in anticipation of the envisioned pandemic peak(s) and aftermath, as vividly illustrated with references to the need for ‘flattening the curve’ so as to reduce the impact of the looming or creeping crisis. This paper sets out to critically discuss the notion of pandemic ‘strategies’, recognizing also that governments altered their strategic stances throughout the initial phase of the pandemic. It is likely that the aftermath of the crisis will trigger discussions of what kind of response should be considered as best practice. Thus, greater attention to the notion of ‘strategies’ in light of the COVID-19 pandemic is in order.","PeriodicalId":73748,"journal":{"name":"Journal of extreme events","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48109857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-17DOI: 10.1142/S2345737621500135
P. Marcotullio, M. Schmeltz
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has impacted cities around the world. Global cities theory suggests that cities articulated to the global economy should be affected by such flows similarly. We start from this perspective and examine the impacts and outcomes of COVID-19 in three global cities: New York City, London and Tokyo. Our results focus on the speed, intensity, scale and characteristics of COVID-19 related cases and deaths in these cities and their respective countries. We find that while there are similarities between the experiences of global cities, there are also significant differences. The differences can be partially explained by policy, socio-economic and cultural differences. Our findings suggest that cities articulated to the global system could benefit from developing their own locally unique early warning and emergency response system, integrated with but separate from national systems.
{"title":"COVID-19 in Three Global Cities: Comparing Impacts and Outcomes","authors":"P. Marcotullio, M. Schmeltz","doi":"10.1142/S2345737621500135","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S2345737621500135","url":null,"abstract":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has impacted cities around the world. Global cities theory suggests that cities articulated to the global economy should be affected by such flows similarly. We start from this perspective and examine the impacts and outcomes of COVID-19 in three global cities: New York City, London and Tokyo. Our results focus on the speed, intensity, scale and characteristics of COVID-19 related cases and deaths in these cities and their respective countries. We find that while there are similarities between the experiences of global cities, there are also significant differences. The differences can be partially explained by policy, socio-economic and cultural differences. Our findings suggest that cities articulated to the global system could benefit from developing their own locally unique early warning and emergency response system, integrated with but separate from national systems.","PeriodicalId":73748,"journal":{"name":"Journal of extreme events","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45337279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-03DOI: 10.1142/S2345737621500147
S. Kiran
Kerala, the South-West coastal state of India, was ravaged by a series of floods during the South-West Monsoon of 2018. The season was marked by severely anomalous rainfall trends, with over 100 mm of departures from the mean daily precipitation in the northern districts of the State. Unlike previous works, this study not only documents the extreme event, but also identifies the tropical dynamics responsible for it. The synoptic disturbances of the tropical Pacific triggered high-frequency Mixed Rossby-Gravity (MRG) waves in the mid-troposphere during Boreal Summer, which meddled with the Monsoon trough, as it propagated westward from the east Equatorial Indian Ocean to the east coast of Africa. Interestingly, these equatorially-trapped waves were found to have teamed up with Madden–Julian Oscillations (MJO) to fuel deep convection in the tropics and caused heavy rainfall over Kerala in 2018.
{"title":"High-Frequency Mixed Rossby-Gravity Waves in the Mid-Troposphere Triggered Kerala Floods of 2018","authors":"S. Kiran","doi":"10.1142/S2345737621500147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S2345737621500147","url":null,"abstract":"Kerala, the South-West coastal state of India, was ravaged by a series of floods during the South-West Monsoon of 2018. The season was marked by severely anomalous rainfall trends, with over 100 mm of departures from the mean daily precipitation in the northern districts of the State. Unlike previous works, this study not only documents the extreme event, but also identifies the tropical dynamics responsible for it. The synoptic disturbances of the tropical Pacific triggered high-frequency Mixed Rossby-Gravity (MRG) waves in the mid-troposphere during Boreal Summer, which meddled with the Monsoon trough, as it propagated westward from the east Equatorial Indian Ocean to the east coast of Africa. Interestingly, these equatorially-trapped waves were found to have teamed up with Madden–Julian Oscillations (MJO) to fuel deep convection in the tropics and caused heavy rainfall over Kerala in 2018.","PeriodicalId":73748,"journal":{"name":"Journal of extreme events","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41319663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-06-01DOI: 10.1142/S2345737621500159
Jennifer Bock, Palak Srivastava, Sonal Jessel, Jacqueline M Klopp, Robbie M Parks
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic changed many social, economic, environmental, and healthcare determinants of health in New York City (NYC) and worldwide. COVID-19 potentially heightened the risk of heat-related health impacts in NYC, particularly on the most vulnerable communities, who often lack equitable access to adequate cooling mechanisms such as air conditioning (AC) and good quality green space. Here, we review some of the policies and tools which have been developed to reduce vulnerability to heat in NYC. We then present results from an online pilot survey of members of the environmental justice organization WE ACT for Environmental Justice (WE ACT) between July 11 and August 8, 2020, which asked questions to evaluate how those in Northern Manhattan coped with elevated summer heat in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. We also make some policy recommendations based on our initial findings. Results of our pilot survey suggest that people stayed indoors more due to COVID-19 and relied more on AC units to stay cool. Survey responses also indicated that some avoided visiting green spaces due to concerns around overcrowding and did not regularly frequent them due to the distance from their homes. The responses also demonstrate a potential racial disparity in AC access; AC ownership and access was highest amongst white and lowest amongst Latino/a/x and Black respondents. The impacts of COVID-19 have highlighted the need to accelerate efforts to improve preparedness for extreme heat like the City of New York's AC and cooling center programs, heat ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) retrofitting, equitable green space expansion, and stronger environmental justice community networks and feedback mechanisms to hear from affected residents. Conducting a survey of this kind annually may provide an additional effective component of evaluating cooling initiatives in NYC.
2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行改变了纽约市和全球健康的许多社会、经济、环境和医疗保健决定因素。COVID-19可能会增加纽约市与热相关的健康影响的风险，特别是对最脆弱的社区，他们往往无法公平地获得适当的冷却机制，如空调(AC)和优质的绿色空间。在这里，我们回顾了一些已经制定的政策和工具，以减少纽约市对高温的脆弱性。然后，我们介绍了2020年7月11日至8月8日期间对环境正义组织We ACT for environmental justice (We ACT)成员进行的在线试点调查的结果，该调查提出了一些问题，以评估曼哈顿北部的人们如何应对2019冠状病毒病大流行期间夏季高温。我们还根据初步调查结果提出了一些政策建议。我们的试点调查结果显示，由于COVID-19，人们更多地呆在室内，更多地依赖空调来保持凉爽。调查结果还表明，一些人由于担心过度拥挤而避免访问绿地，并且由于离家太远而不经常光顾绿地。这些反应还表明，在交流机会方面存在潜在的种族差异;在白人受访者中，空调拥有率和使用率最高，而在拉丁裔/非裔和黑人受访者中，空调拥有率和使用率最低。2019冠状病毒病的影响突出表明，有必要加快努力，改善应对极端高温的准备工作，如纽约市的空调和制冷中心项目、热风和空调(HVAC)改造、公平的绿色空间扩张，以及加强环境正义社区网络和听取受影响居民意见的反馈机制。每年进行此类调查可以为评估纽约市的降温举措提供额外的有效组成部分。
{"title":"Compounding Risks Caused by Heat Exposure and COVID-19 in New York City: A Review of Policies, Tools, and Pilot Survey Results.","authors":"Jennifer Bock, Palak Srivastava, Sonal Jessel, Jacqueline M Klopp, Robbie M Parks","doi":"10.1142/S2345737621500159","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S2345737621500159","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic changed many social, economic, environmental, and healthcare determinants of health in New York City (NYC) and worldwide. COVID-19 potentially heightened the risk of heat-related health impacts in NYC, particularly on the most vulnerable communities, who often lack equitable access to adequate cooling mechanisms such as air conditioning (AC) and good quality green space. Here, we review some of the policies and tools which have been developed to reduce vulnerability to heat in NYC. We then present results from an online pilot survey of members of the environmental justice organization WE ACT for Environmental Justice (WE ACT) between July 11 and August 8, 2020, which asked questions to evaluate how those in Northern Manhattan coped with elevated summer heat in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. We also make some policy recommendations based on our initial findings. Results of our pilot survey suggest that people stayed indoors more due to COVID-19 and relied more on AC units to stay cool. Survey responses also indicated that some avoided visiting green spaces due to concerns around overcrowding and did not regularly frequent them due to the distance from their homes. The responses also demonstrate a potential racial disparity in AC access; AC ownership and access was highest amongst white and lowest amongst Latino/a/x and Black respondents. The impacts of COVID-19 have highlighted the need to accelerate efforts to improve preparedness for extreme heat like the City of New York's AC and cooling center programs, heat ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) retrofitting, equitable green space expansion, and stronger environmental justice community networks and feedback mechanisms to hear from affected residents. Conducting a survey of this kind annually may provide an additional effective component of evaluating cooling initiatives in NYC.</p>","PeriodicalId":73748,"journal":{"name":"Journal of extreme events","volume":"8 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9036680/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10007104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-14DOI: 10.1142/S234573762150010X
Nora I. Kyrkjebo, A. Parris, J. Barnes, Illya Azaroff, D. Balk, A. Baptista, C. Braneon, William Calabrese, T. Codrington, Jessica Colon, F. Gandhi, Maureen George, P. Groffman, Justin Gundlach, R. Carr, N. Holt, R. Horton, Arthee Jahangir, Bobuchi Ken-Opurum, K. Knowlton, R. Leichenko, N. Maher, P. Marcotullio, T. Matte, K. McComas, S. McKay, T. McPhearson, R. Moss, Guy J. P. Nordenson, Thaddeus Pawlowski, Nicholas Rajkovich, K. Reed, Laurie Schoeman, Johnna K. Shapiro, Danielle H. Spiegel-Feld, J. Tchen, J. Towers, Gernot Wagner
In May 2020, the New York City (NYC) Mayor’s Office of Climate Resiliency (MOCR) began convening bi-weekly discussions, called the Rapid Research and Assessment (RRA) Series, between City staff and external experts in science, policy, design, engineering, communications, and planning. The goal was to rapidly develop authoritative, actionable information to help integrate resiliency into the City’s COVID response efforts. The situation in NYC is not uncommon. Extreme events often require government officials, practitioners, and citizens to call upon multiple forms of scientific and technical assistance from rapid data collection to expert elicitation, each spanning more or less involved engagement. We compare the RRA to similar rapid assessment efforts and reflect on the nature of the RRA and similar efforts to exchange and co-produce knowledge. The RRA took up topics on social cohesion, risk communication, resilient and healthy buildings, and engagement, in many cases strengthening confidence in what was already known but also refining the existing knowledge in ways that can be helpful as the pandemic unfolds. Researchers also learned from each other ways to be supportive of the City of New York and MOCR in the future. The RRA network will continue to deepen, continue to co-produce actionable climate knowledge, and continue to value organizational sensemaking as a usable climate service, particularly in highly uncertain times. Given the complex, rare, and, in many cases, unfamiliar context of COVID-19, we argue that organizational sensemaking is a usable climate service.
{"title":"Rapid Research and Assessment on COVID-19 and Climate in New York City","authors":"Nora I. Kyrkjebo, A. Parris, J. Barnes, Illya Azaroff, D. Balk, A. Baptista, C. Braneon, William Calabrese, T. Codrington, Jessica Colon, F. Gandhi, Maureen George, P. Groffman, Justin Gundlach, R. Carr, N. Holt, R. Horton, Arthee Jahangir, Bobuchi Ken-Opurum, K. Knowlton, R. Leichenko, N. Maher, P. Marcotullio, T. Matte, K. McComas, S. McKay, T. McPhearson, R. Moss, Guy J. P. Nordenson, Thaddeus Pawlowski, Nicholas Rajkovich, K. Reed, Laurie Schoeman, Johnna K. Shapiro, Danielle H. Spiegel-Feld, J. Tchen, J. Towers, Gernot Wagner","doi":"10.1142/S234573762150010X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S234573762150010X","url":null,"abstract":"In May 2020, the New York City (NYC) Mayor’s Office of Climate Resiliency (MOCR) began convening bi-weekly discussions, called the Rapid Research and Assessment (RRA) Series, between City staff and external experts in science, policy, design, engineering, communications, and planning. The goal was to rapidly develop authoritative, actionable information to help integrate resiliency into the City’s COVID response efforts. The situation in NYC is not uncommon. Extreme events often require government officials, practitioners, and citizens to call upon multiple forms of scientific and technical assistance from rapid data collection to expert elicitation, each spanning more or less involved engagement. We compare the RRA to similar rapid assessment efforts and reflect on the nature of the RRA and similar efforts to exchange and co-produce knowledge. The RRA took up topics on social cohesion, risk communication, resilient and healthy buildings, and engagement, in many cases strengthening confidence in what was already known but also refining the existing knowledge in ways that can be helpful as the pandemic unfolds. Researchers also learned from each other ways to be supportive of the City of New York and MOCR in the future. The RRA network will continue to deepen, continue to co-produce actionable climate knowledge, and continue to value organizational sensemaking as a usable climate service, particularly in highly uncertain times. Given the complex, rare, and, in many cases, unfamiliar context of COVID-19, we argue that organizational sensemaking is a usable climate service.","PeriodicalId":73748,"journal":{"name":"Journal of extreme events","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45442187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-06DOI: 10.1142/S2345737621500093
J. Moon, M. Kwartler
The onset and aftermath of COVID-19 can be understood as an extreme event within the context of New York City, in terms of urban planning and design, public health, and the cross-section of the two. Over the course of a few months since early March, 2020, infection rates, illness, hospitalizations, and deaths from COVID-19 swept through New York rapidly. It also became apparent early on that people were not being exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus equally, nor was COVID-19 spreading over a level-playing field. In this commentary, we examine what role COVID-19 played in a “social biopsy” of long-standing structural inequity in New York City, to reveal a deep, metastasizing tumor underneath the extreme wealth. We tell the story of the historical context in low-income public and non-profit housing and urban planning in New York City leading up to the pandemic’s outbreak, how the structural inequity was built into place over time by design, how the COVID-19 pandemic has shifted our understanding of equitable and sustainable New York City for New Yorkers, and ways that the pandemic has reinforced our individual and collective sense of uncertainty in the future and distrust in a common good. We then discuss how we can recover, restore and rebuild from the urban planning and public health perspectives, for New York City and beyond. Rebuilding will require reimagining a new normal, and we suggest unique but tried-and-true, complementary and collaborative roles for community stakeholders.
{"title":"Urban Planning and Human Development: How the COVID-19 Pandemic Reveals the Linkage","authors":"J. Moon, M. Kwartler","doi":"10.1142/S2345737621500093","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S2345737621500093","url":null,"abstract":"The onset and aftermath of COVID-19 can be understood as an extreme event within the context of New York City, in terms of urban planning and design, public health, and the cross-section of the two. Over the course of a few months since early March, 2020, infection rates, illness, hospitalizations, and deaths from COVID-19 swept through New York rapidly. It also became apparent early on that people were not being exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus equally, nor was COVID-19 spreading over a level-playing field. In this commentary, we examine what role COVID-19 played in a “social biopsy” of long-standing structural inequity in New York City, to reveal a deep, metastasizing tumor underneath the extreme wealth. We tell the story of the historical context in low-income public and non-profit housing and urban planning in New York City leading up to the pandemic’s outbreak, how the structural inequity was built into place over time by design, how the COVID-19 pandemic has shifted our understanding of equitable and sustainable New York City for New Yorkers, and ways that the pandemic has reinforced our individual and collective sense of uncertainty in the future and distrust in a common good. We then discuss how we can recover, restore and rebuild from the urban planning and public health perspectives, for New York City and beyond. Rebuilding will require reimagining a new normal, and we suggest unique but tried-and-true, complementary and collaborative roles for community stakeholders.","PeriodicalId":73748,"journal":{"name":"Journal of extreme events","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41800504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-01DOI: 10.1142/S2345737621500032
Steven Cohen
This paper discusses the need for public health infrastructure to address COVID-19 and future pandemics. It then links this need to the centrality of the global economy, and finally to the maintenance of density required for environmentally sustainable cities.
{"title":"COVID-19 in New York City as an Extreme Event: The Disruption and Resumption of the Global City","authors":"Steven Cohen","doi":"10.1142/S2345737621500032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S2345737621500032","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses the need for public health infrastructure to address COVID-19 and future pandemics. It then links this need to the centrality of the global economy, and finally to the maintenance of density required for environmentally sustainable cities.","PeriodicalId":73748,"journal":{"name":"Journal of extreme events","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47380114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The findings introduced in this longitudinal study of cumulative Covid-19 cases and deaths are based on reported data for 384 US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) for 20 weeks, starting on March 6, 2020 and ending on July 23, 2020. We look at the variation in the 7-day averages of the cumulative numbers of reported cases and deaths in each city at the end of every week as a function of its total population, its ‘urbanized area,’ and its average population density (the ratio of its population and its urbanized area). We find that during the last 10 weeks, the numbers have tended to converge: (1) a city with double the population of a smaller one can be expected to have 17 percent more cases per capita and 28 percent more deaths per capita than the smaller city; (2) a city with double the urbanized area of a smaller one can be expected to have 19 percent more cases per capita and 38 percent more deaths per capita than the smaller city; and, finally, (3) a city with double the population density of a smaller one can be expected to have 4.1 percent fewer cases per capita and 7.4 percent fewer deaths per capita than the smaller city. Larger cities have more than their share of cases and deaths in part because the larger the city, the larger the number of possible interactions among its inhabitants. And it is this larger number, rather than the overall average proximity of people to each other — expressed by the average density in the city — that accounts for that larger share. In fact, when it pertains to Covid-19 cases and deaths, denser metropolitan areas appear to be better able to contain their numbers than more spread out ones.
{"title":"Covid-19 Thrives in Larger Cities, Not Denser Ones","authors":"S. Angel, Alejandro M. Blei","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3672321","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3672321","url":null,"abstract":"The findings introduced in this longitudinal study of cumulative Covid-19 cases and deaths are based on reported data for 384 US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) for 20 weeks, starting on March 6, 2020 and ending on July 23, 2020. We look at the variation in the 7-day averages of the cumulative numbers of reported cases and deaths in each city at the end of every week as a function of its total population, its ‘urbanized area,’ and its average population density (the ratio of its population and its urbanized area). We find that during the last 10 weeks, the numbers have tended to converge: (1) a city with double the population of a smaller one can be expected to have 17 percent more cases per capita and 28 percent more deaths per capita than the smaller city; (2) a city with double the urbanized area of a smaller one can be expected to have 19 percent more cases per capita and 38 percent more deaths per capita than the smaller city; and, finally, (3) a city with double the population density of a smaller one can be expected to have 4.1 percent fewer cases per capita and 7.4 percent fewer deaths per capita than the smaller city. Larger cities have more than their share of cases and deaths in part because the larger the city, the larger the number of possible interactions among its inhabitants. And it is this larger number, rather than the overall average proximity of people to each other — expressed by the average density in the city — that accounts for that larger share. In fact, when it pertains to Covid-19 cases and deaths, denser metropolitan areas appear to be better able to contain their numbers than more spread out ones.","PeriodicalId":73748,"journal":{"name":"Journal of extreme events","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49644025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-12-01DOI: 10.1142/s2345737620710013
B. Stone
{"title":"Policy Nook: Heat Waves as Hurricanes: A Comment","authors":"B. Stone","doi":"10.1142/s2345737620710013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2345737620710013","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":73748,"journal":{"name":"Journal of extreme events","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45026318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-12-01DOI: 10.1142/s2345737620500037
L. Keith, Sara Meerow, Tess Wagner
Extreme heat is a growing concern for cities, with both climate change and the urban heat island (UHI) effect increasingly impacting public health, economies, urban infrastructure, and urban ecology. To better understand the current state of planning for extreme heat, we conducted a systematic literature review. We found that most of the research focuses on UHI mapping and modeling, while few studies delve into extreme heat planning and governance processes. An in-depth review of this literature reveals common institutional, policy, and informational barriers and strategies for overcoming them. Identified challenges include siloed heat governance and research that limit cross-governmental and interdisciplinary collaboration; complex, context-specific, and diverse heat resilience strategies; the need to combine extreme heat “risk management” strategies (focused on preparing and responding to extreme heat events) and “design of the built environment” strategies (spatial planning and design interventions that intentionally reduce urban temperatures); and the need for extensive, multidisciplinary data and tools that are often not readily available. These challenges point to several avenues for future heat planning research. Ultimately, we argue that planners have an important role to play in building heat resilience and conclude by identifying areas where scholars and practitioners can work together to advance our understanding of extreme heat planning.
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