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Modelling volumetric growth of emerging urban areas around new transit stations 模拟新公交站点周围新兴城区的体积增长
IF 9.1 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1038/s42949-024-00171-y
Omkar Deepak Karmarkar, Arnab Jana, Nagendra Rao Velaga
Cities in developing countries are fast transforming from area-based expansion, representing spatial growth, to volumetric expansion, representing a higher skyline. Existing urban growth prediction models predict only spatial or two-dimensional growth. This paper demonstrates a volumetric urban growth model, incorporating the vertical expansion of urban areas. Two separate models were calibrated for spatial and built-up height growth, using historical growth patterns of transit-triggered new town development in India. The models were applied to upcoming transit station areas in India to predict the volumetric urban expansion for the next twenty years.
发展中国家的城市正在从代表空间增长的面积扩张快速转变为代表更高天际线的体积扩张。现有的城市增长预测模型只能预测空间或二维增长。本文展示了一个包含城市区域垂直扩张的体积型城市增长模型。利用印度交通触发的新城镇发展的历史增长模式,对空间和建筑高度增长的两个独立模型进行了校准。这些模型被应用于印度即将建成的公交站点区域,以预测未来二十年的城市体积扩张。
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引用次数: 0
More urbanization, more polarization: evidence from two decades of urban expansion in China 更多城市化,更多两极分化:中国二十年城市扩张的证据
IF 9.1 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1038/s42949-024-00170-z
Yi’na Hu, Dylan Shane Connor, Michelle Stuhlmacher, Jian Peng, B. L. Turner II
This article examines whether the patterns of urbanization in China over the past twenty years have resulted in a more balanced or increasingly polarized city size distribution. China is an important study area due to the immense scale of its urbanization and the substantial role of its planners in coordinating and striving for more balanced development patterns. This study utilizes measures of the spatial and temporal characteristics of built-up area (BUA) expansion across 23 urban agglomerations in China, focusing on size dynamics through the urban primacy index and Pareto exponent. The BUA within these 23 UAs increased by 280.90% in the study period. Coastal urban agglomerations were larger in size at baseline and maintained relatively high annual growth rates compared to inland agglomerations, indicating rising polarization. Changes within agglomerations were indicative of declining polarization, as evidenced by the reduction in the urban primacy index and the increase of Pareto exponent. Policies implemented to achieve enhanced urbanization coordination in China appear to be partially successful, but the growth of urban regions with existing large size continues to fuel uneven urban development and polarization.
本文探讨了中国过去二十年的城市化模式是导致了城市规模分布更加均衡还是日益两极分化。中国是一个重要的研究区域,因为其城市化规模巨大,而且规划者在协调和努力实现更均衡的发展模式方面发挥着重要作用。本研究利用中国 23 个城市群的建成区扩张的空间和时间特征,通过城市首位度指数和帕累托指数关注城市规模的动态变化。在研究期间,这 23 个城市群的建成区面积增加了 280.90%。与内陆城市群相比,沿海城市群的基线规模更大,并保持着相对较高的年增长率,这表明两极分化正在加剧。城市群内部的变化表明两极分化在下降,城市首位度指数的下降和帕累托指数的上升就是证明。中国为加强城市化协调而实施的政策似乎取得了部分成功,但现有大体量城市区域的增长继续加剧了城市发展的不平衡和两极分化。
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引用次数: 0
Emergent digital possibilities for design-led reuse within circular economy 循环经济中以设计为主导的再利用的新兴数字可能性
IF 9.1 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.1038/s42949-024-00164-x
Guy Keulemans, Roxane Adams
This paper discusses literature and practice-based case studies in transformative, design-led reuse using emerging technologies. The inability of recycling to manage the assortment and complexity of waste materials within Circular Economy (CE) demands more discrete, attentive and granular approaches to reuse of waste by design professionals. This paper explores emerging and established digital technologies of Building Information Management (BIM), 3D scanning and artificial intelligence (AI) for their capacity to ease and improve transformative, design-led reuse practices for interiors, furnishings, architecture and building. Practice-based research is used to communicate first-hand encounters with the possibilities, benefits and challenges of these digital techniques.
本文讨论了利用新兴技术进行以设计为主导的变革性再利用方面的文献和基于实践的案例研究。循环经济(CE)中的废物材料种类繁多,复杂程度高,回收利用无法对其进行管理,这就要求设计专业人员采用更加离散、细致和细化的方法对废物进行再利用。本文探讨了建筑信息管理(BIM)、三维扫描和人工智能(AI)等新兴和成熟的数字技术,以了解这些技术在促进和改善以设计为主导的室内装饰、家具、建筑和楼宇再利用实践方面的变革能力。通过基于实践的研究,我们可以亲身体验这些数字技术带来的可能性、益处和挑战。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of COVID-19 on the resilience of urban life in China COVID-19 对中国城市生活复原力的影响
IF 9.1 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.1038/s42949-024-00167-8
Hao Han, Xuemei Bai, Robert Costanza, Liang Dong
Understanding the impacts of COVID-19 on citizens from different cities is crucial for urban resilience-building and reducing inequal resilience distribution. However, little research focuses on urban life at the individual level, particularly in second- and third-tier cities. An online survey was therefore conducted to collect data on how COVID-19 affected the cities and urban residents in mainland China. The results indicate that COVID-19 limited citizens’ access to healthcare facilities and socioeconomic activities apart from the immediate health crisis. Most citizens suffered reduced income, unemployment, and social anxiety. However, COVID-19 also raised social awareness and actions for disaster adaptation. The Chinese pandemic management has strengthened governmental leadership and credibility among most citizens in the early stage. Importantly, the results suggested that citizens in first-tier cities appeared more resilient to pandemics than those in second-tier cities. A networked resilience framework was therefore discussed for resilience-building policy implications.
了解 COVID-19 对不同城市市民的影响对于城市复原力建设和减少复原力分布不均至关重要。然而,很少有研究关注个人层面的城市生活,尤其是二三线城市。因此,我们开展了一项在线调查,收集有关 COVID-19 对中国大陆城市和城市居民影响的数据。调查结果显示,除了直接的健康危机外,COVID-19 还限制了市民使用医疗设施和参与社会经济活动的机会。大多数市民遭受了收入减少、失业和社会焦虑等问题。然而,COVID-19 也提高了社会对灾难适应的意识和行动。中国的大流行管理在早期阶段加强了政府的领导力和在大多数公民中的公信力。重要的是,研究结果表明,一线城市的市民似乎比二线城市的市民更能抵御大流行病。因此,讨论了网络化复原力框架对复原力建设政策的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Indirect non-linear effects of landscape patterns on vegetation growth in Kunming City 景观格局对昆明市植被生长的间接非线性影响
IF 9.1 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1038/s42949-024-00165-w
Ninglv Li, Fangkai Zhao, Shanshan Chen, Chun Li, Yiting Wang, Yuxin Ma, Liding Chen
Urban greening is becoming an important strategy in improving urban ecosystem services and sustainability. Identifying the response of vegetation to urbanization and urban landscape patterns can help in planning for urban greening. Urbanization may lead to both direct and indirect effects on vegetation, and the indirect effects of urbanization on vegetation growth (UIE-VG) have been paid much attention recently in large scale. In this study, we investigated the spatiotemporal evolution of UIE-VG and the effects of landscape patterns on UIE-VG using the boosted regression tree model and remotely sensed data. An increase in average UIE-VG from 4 to 56% was found during urbanization of Kunming, the case study area in southwest China. However, UIE-VG exhibited high variations due to landscape pattern changes at the local scale. Overall, area-related and aggregation-related landscape metrics had greater effects on UIE-VG than the other metrics. The increase and aggregation of built-up land enhanced UIE-VG by 3.1–81.3% while the increase and aggregation of unused land and waterbodies reduced UIE-VG by 0.7–20.6%. Moreover, we found that the large and aggregated vegetation areas may mitigate the negative UIE-VG in low urbanization areas. Our findings have important implications for integrating urban landscape planning into sustainable urban greening strategies.
城市绿化正成为改善城市生态系统服务和可持续性的重要战略。确定植被对城市化和城市景观模式的反应有助于规划城市绿化。城市化会对植被产生直接和间接的影响,而城市化对植被生长的间接影响(UIE-VG)近年来受到了大规模的关注。在本研究中,我们利用提升回归树模型和遥感数据研究了 UIE-VG 的时空演变以及景观格局对 UIE-VG 的影响。研究发现,在中国西南部案例研究地区昆明的城市化进程中,UIE-VG 平均值从 4% 增加到 56%。然而,由于局部尺度的景观格局变化,UIE-VG 表现出很大的差异。总体而言,与面积和聚集相关的景观指标对 UIE-VG 的影响大于其他指标。建筑用地的增加和聚集使 UIE-VG 提高了 3.1-81.3%,而未利用地和水体的增加和聚集则使 UIE-VG 降低了 0.7-20.6%。此外,我们还发现,在低城市化地区,植被面积大且聚集,可减轻 UIE-VG 的负面影响。我们的研究结果对于将城市景观规划纳入可持续城市绿化战略具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Towards a public policy of cities and human settlements in the 21st century 制定 21 世纪城市和人类住区公共政策
IF 9.1 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-06-24 DOI: 10.1038/s42949-024-00168-7
Felix Creutzig, Sophia Becker, Peter Berrill, Constanze Bongs, Alexandra Bussler, Ben Cave, Sara M. Constantino, Marcus Grant, Niko Heeren, Eva Heinen, Marie Josefine Hintz, Timothee Ingen-Housz, Eric Johnson, Nina Kolleck, Charlotte Liotta, Sylvia Lorek, Giulio Mattioli, Leila Niamir, Timon McPhearson, Nikola Milojevic-Dupont, Florian Nachtigall, Kai Nagel, Henriette Närger, Minal Pathak, Paola Perrin de Brichambaut, Diana Reckien, Lucia A. Reisch, Aromar Revi, Fabian Schuppert, Andrew Sudmant, Felix Wagner, Janina Walkenhorst, Elke Weber, Michael Wilmes, Charlie Wilson, Aicha Zekar
Cities and other human settlements are major contributors to climate change and are highly vulnerable to its impacts. They are also uniquely positioned to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and lead adaptation efforts. These compound challenges and opportunities require a comprehensive perspective on the public policy of human settlements. Drawing on core literature that has driven debate around cities and climate over recent decades, we put forward a set of boundary objects that can be applied to connect the knowledge of epistemic communities and support an integrated urbanism. We then use these boundary objects to develop the Goals-Intervention-Stakeholder-Enablers (GISE) framework for a public policy of human settlements that is both place-specific and provides insights and tools useful for climate action in cities and other human settlements worldwide. Using examples from Berlin, we apply this framework to show that climate mitigation and adaptation, public health, and well-being goals are closely linked and mutually supportive when a comprehensive approach to urban public policy is applied.
城市和其他人类住区是造成气候变化的主要因素,也极易受到气候变化的影响。在减少温室气体排放和领导适应工作方面,城市和其他人类住区也具有得天独厚的优势。这些复杂的挑战和机遇要求我们以全面的视角来看待人类住区的公共政策。我们借鉴了近几十年来围绕城市和气候问题展开讨论的核心文献,提出了一套边界对象,可用于连接认识论群体的知识,支持综合城市主义。然后,我们利用这些边界对象为人类住区公共政策制定了目标--干预--利益相关者--促进因素(GISE)框架,该框架既针对具体地点,又为城市和全球其他人类住区的气候行动提供了有用的见解和工具。通过柏林的例子,我们运用这一框架来说明,当采用综合方法来制定城市公共政策时,气候减缓和适应、公共卫生和福祉目标是紧密联系和相互支持的。
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引用次数: 0
Precise control balances epidemic mitigation and economic growth 精准控制兼顾疫情缓解和经济增长
Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI: 10.1038/s42949-024-00166-9
Yiheng Wang, Guanjie Zheng, Hexi Jin, Yi Sun, Kan Wu, Jie Fang
The outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in 2019 has profoundly affected public health and the global economy. Policymakers face the challenge of evolving virus mutations and one key measure involves the use of Health Code to classify the public and enforce quarantine policies. Despite widespread adoption, its effectiveness in mitigating the epidemic is not well understood. Here, we proposed an infection component model to assess the Health Code’s effectiveness. We found that “Precise control” using Health Code can strike a balance between economic growth and public health, reducing 97% of deaths and improving 1% of GDP compared to “No control” or city shutdown policies. Moreover, its medical costs are only 43% of the latter. However, its effectiveness diminishes if the basic reproductive number ( $${R}_{0}$$ ) exceeds 16.5, indicating the end of this epidemic with “Precise control”. These findings have important implications for policymakers in developing effective strategies to combat the pandemic.
2019 年爆发的冠状病毒大流行对公共卫生和全球经济产生了深远影响。政策制定者面临着病毒变异不断发展的挑战,其中一项关键措施是使用《健康代码》对公众进行分类并执行隔离政策。尽管《健康代码》被广泛采用,但人们对其在缓解疫情方面的效果并不十分了解。在此,我们提出了一个感染组件模型来评估《健康守则》的有效性。我们发现,与 "不控制 "或城市关闭政策相比,利用《卫生法典》进行 "精确控制 "可以在经济增长和公共卫生之间取得平衡,减少 97% 的死亡人数,提高 1% 的 GDP。此外,其医疗成本仅为后者的 43%。然而,如果基本生殖数(${R}_{0}$$)超过 16.5,其效果就会减弱,这表明 "精确控制 "将终结这种流行病。这些发现对决策者制定有效的抗击疫情战略具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Intra-urban house prices in Madrid following the financial crisis: an exploration of spatial inequality 金融危机后的马德里城市内房价:空间不平等探讨
Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-04-24 DOI: 10.1038/s42949-024-00161-0
Gladys Elizabeth Kenyon, Dani Arribas-Bel, Caitlin Robinson, Olga Gkountouna, Pelayo Arbués, David Rey-Blanco
In this paper we explore the temporal dynamics of spatial inequality in housing prices for Madrid, the capital city of Spain. Spatial inequalities are a concerning feature of urban areas across the globe. It has been suggested that within cities housing prices are becoming more geographically unequal over time, particularly since the 2008 housing market crash. However, more evidence is needed at the intra-urban level to understand neighbourhood house price differences in large urban areas. Changes are analysed during a key period of the housing market bust (2010–2015) and boom (2016–2019), using data from a major housing listing portal. Fine grain space-time analysis of the distribution of housing prices supports an increase in spatial inequality and polarisation at the neighbourhood level. Two spatially differentiated housing sub-markets of high- and low-priced housing are identified. The persistence and growth of spatial house price inequality has important societal implications for the wealth gap and segregation of rich and poor in cities.
本文探讨了西班牙首都马德里住房价格空间不平等的时间动态。空间不平等是全球城市地区的一个令人担忧的特征。有观点认为,随着时间的推移,城市内部的住房价格在地理上越来越不平等,尤其是自 2008 年房地产市场崩溃以来。然而,要了解大城市地区的邻里房价差异,还需要更多城市内部层面的证据。本文利用一家大型住房上市门户网站的数据,分析了住房市场萧条期(2010-2015 年)和繁荣期(2016-2019 年)这一关键时期的变化。对房价分布的细粒度时空分析表明,邻里层面的空间不平等和两极分化加剧。我们发现了高价和低价住房的两个空间差异化住房子市场。空间房价不平等的持续和增长对城市的贫富差距和贫富隔离具有重要的社会影响。
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引用次数: 0
Engineering blue-green infrastructure for and with biodiversity in cities 为城市生物多样性设计蓝绿基础设施并与之共存
Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-04-24 DOI: 10.1038/s42949-024-00163-y
Kilian Perrelet, Marco Moretti, Andreas Dietzel, Florian Altermatt, Lauren M. Cook
Blue-green infrastructure (BGI), combining semi-natural and engineered elements, offers multifaceted benefits like stormwater management, water purification, heat mitigation, and habitat provision. However, current BGI designs prioritize engineering goals, overlooking its ecological potential. Here we advocate for integrating engineering and ecological objectives into BGI design to enhance performance and biodiversity. Through an interdisciplinary literature review, we emphasize the importance of species diversity, abundance, and ecological processes, to improve engineering performance and resilience, and lower management costs. We emphasize the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration to navigate trade-offs between engineering and ecological objectives, ultimately enabling us to engineer both for and with biodiversity.
蓝绿基础设施(BGI)结合了半自然和工程元素,具有多方面的优势,如雨水管理、水净化、减缓热量和提供栖息地。然而,目前的蓝绿基础设施设计优先考虑工程目标,忽视了其生态潜力。在此,我们主张将工程和生态目标整合到 BGI 设计中,以提高性能和生物多样性。通过跨学科文献综述,我们强调了物种多样性、丰度和生态过程的重要性,以提高工程性能和复原力,降低管理成本。我们强调跨学科合作的重要性,以便在工程目标和生态目标之间权衡利弊,最终使我们的工程既能促进生物多样性,又能实现生物多样性。
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引用次数: 0
Urban flood risk management needs nature-based solutions: a coupled social-ecological system perspective 城市洪水风险管理需要基于自然的解决方案:社会-生态系统耦合视角
Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-04-22 DOI: 10.1038/s42949-024-00162-z
Kejing Zhou, Fanhua Kong, Haiwei Yin, Georgia Destouni, Michael E. Meadows, Erik Andersson, Liding Chen, Bin Chen, Zhenya Li, Jie Su
A growing number of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) has been advocated for urban flood risk management (FRM). However, whether NbS for FRM (NbS-FRM) achieves both social and ecological co-benefits remains largely unknown. We here propose and use a conceptual framework with a coupled social-ecological perspective to explore and identify such “win-win” potential in NbS-FRM. Through a scoping-review we find that ecological FRM measures are unevenly distributed around the world, and those solely targeting flood mitigation may have unintended negative consequences for society and ecosystems. In elaborating this framework with evidence from the reviewed studies, we find that NbS-FRM has the potential to provide both social and ecological co-benefits, with remaining gaps including a lack of resilience thinking, inadequate consideration of environmental changes, and limited collaborative efforts to manage trade-offs. The proposed framework shows how to move forward to leverage NbS for equitable and sustainable FRM with improved human well-being and ecosystem health.
越来越多的基于自然的解决方案(NbS)被提倡用于城市洪水风险管理(FRM)。然而,用于洪水风险管理的 NbS(NbS-FRM)是否能同时实现社会和生态的共同利益在很大程度上仍是未知数。在此,我们提出并使用了一个社会-生态耦合视角的概念框架,以探索和确定 NbS-FRM 的这种 "双赢 "潜力。通过范围审查,我们发现生态型 FRM 措施在世界各地的分布并不均衡,而那些仅以减轻洪灾为目标的措施可能会对社会和生态系统造成意想不到的负面影响。在利用所审查研究的证据阐述该框架时,我们发现 NbS-FRM 有潜力提供社会和生态共同效益,但仍存在差距,包括缺乏复原力思维、对环境变化考虑不足以及管理权衡的合作努力有限。建议的框架说明了如何向前迈进,利用 NbS 实现公平、可持续的 FRM,改善人类福祉和生态系统健康。
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引用次数: 0
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