The mismanagement of waste is jeopardizing urban sustainability. Although polycentric waste governance (PWG) has been introduced, characterizing the PWG remains challenging. This paper employs game theory to illustrate polycentricity by investigating the equilibrium state from the stakeholders’ perspective. Shanghai, Tokyo, and Hong Kong are selected as target cities for comparative analysis. The findings reveal the heterogeneous characteristics in three megacities’ PWG—the collaboration by principal stakeholders (formal recyclers, informal recyclers, households) in Shanghai, the exclusion of informal recyclers in Tokyo, and the limited contribution provided by the formal recyclers in Hong Kong. The divergent PWG characteristics can be attributed to variations in governance patterns, socioeconomic factors, and policy formulation. Regarding urban sustainability, Tokyo and Shanghai’s PWG contribute to the circular economy’s expansion, while Hong Kong’ potential, in this regard, is undervalued. Despite Tokyo’s improved social recognition to practitioners, this PWG mode, primarily driven by formal recyclers and households, presents limited inclusion of low-income groups. Additionally, it is crucial for the authorities in Shanghai and Hong Kong to acknowledge the potential pollution of informal recyclers’ non-environmental behavior. This paper offers a valuable model for characterizing and analyzing PWG across different cities, facilitating knowledge aggregation and the implementation of PWG practice.
{"title":"Characterizing the polycentricity in waste governance: a comparative study on Shanghai, Tokyo, and Hong Kong","authors":"Xinyu Hao, Liang Dong, Xuepeng Qian, Steuer Benjamin, Hongzhou Wang, Peixiu Chen, Xiaofei Wang, Wenting Ma, Jiaying Li, Xin Tong, Xiaoling Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s42949-024-00179-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s42949-024-00179-4","url":null,"abstract":"The mismanagement of waste is jeopardizing urban sustainability. Although polycentric waste governance (PWG) has been introduced, characterizing the PWG remains challenging. This paper employs game theory to illustrate polycentricity by investigating the equilibrium state from the stakeholders’ perspective. Shanghai, Tokyo, and Hong Kong are selected as target cities for comparative analysis. The findings reveal the heterogeneous characteristics in three megacities’ PWG—the collaboration by principal stakeholders (formal recyclers, informal recyclers, households) in Shanghai, the exclusion of informal recyclers in Tokyo, and the limited contribution provided by the formal recyclers in Hong Kong. The divergent PWG characteristics can be attributed to variations in governance patterns, socioeconomic factors, and policy formulation. Regarding urban sustainability, Tokyo and Shanghai’s PWG contribute to the circular economy’s expansion, while Hong Kong’ potential, in this regard, is undervalued. Despite Tokyo’s improved social recognition to practitioners, this PWG mode, primarily driven by formal recyclers and households, presents limited inclusion of low-income groups. Additionally, it is crucial for the authorities in Shanghai and Hong Kong to acknowledge the potential pollution of informal recyclers’ non-environmental behavior. This paper offers a valuable model for characterizing and analyzing PWG across different cities, facilitating knowledge aggregation and the implementation of PWG practice.","PeriodicalId":74322,"journal":{"name":"npj urban sustainability","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-024-00179-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-04DOI: 10.1038/s42949-024-00178-5
Janneke van Oorschot, Mike Slootweg, Roy P. Remme, Benjamin Sprecher, Ester van der Voet
The anticipated increase in urban population of 2.5 billion people by 2050 poses significant environmental challenges. While the various environmental impacts of urbanisation have been studied individually, integrated approaches are rare. This study introduces a spatially explicit model to assess urbanization’s effects on ecosystem services (green infrastructure availability, cooling, stormwater retention) and the environmental impact of building construction (material demand, greenhouse gas emissions, land use). Applied to the Netherlands from 2018 to 2050, our results show that integrating green infrastructure development with building construction could increase green areas by up to 5% and stabilize or increase ecosystem service provisioning. Dense building construction with green infrastructure development is generally more beneficial across the Netherlands, reducing resource use and enhancing ecosystem services. Conversely, sparse construction with green infrastructure is more advantageous for newly built areas. These findings offer insights into the environmental consequences of urbanization, guiding sustainable urban planning practices.
{"title":"Optimizing green and gray infrastructure planning for sustainable urban development","authors":"Janneke van Oorschot, Mike Slootweg, Roy P. Remme, Benjamin Sprecher, Ester van der Voet","doi":"10.1038/s42949-024-00178-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s42949-024-00178-5","url":null,"abstract":"The anticipated increase in urban population of 2.5 billion people by 2050 poses significant environmental challenges. While the various environmental impacts of urbanisation have been studied individually, integrated approaches are rare. This study introduces a spatially explicit model to assess urbanization’s effects on ecosystem services (green infrastructure availability, cooling, stormwater retention) and the environmental impact of building construction (material demand, greenhouse gas emissions, land use). Applied to the Netherlands from 2018 to 2050, our results show that integrating green infrastructure development with building construction could increase green areas by up to 5% and stabilize or increase ecosystem service provisioning. Dense building construction with green infrastructure development is generally more beneficial across the Netherlands, reducing resource use and enhancing ecosystem services. Conversely, sparse construction with green infrastructure is more advantageous for newly built areas. These findings offer insights into the environmental consequences of urbanization, guiding sustainable urban planning practices.","PeriodicalId":74322,"journal":{"name":"npj urban sustainability","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-024-00178-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-02DOI: 10.1038/s42949-024-00174-9
Laura S. Tuominen, Heikki Helanterä, Patrik Karell, Lauri Rapeli, Timo Vuorisalo, Jon E. Brommer
The COVID-19 pandemic showed us that maintaining and increasing individual and community resilience is essential, particularly in cities. Access to urban green spaces such as parks and gardens supports resilience and well-being. Here, we studied how the pandemic influenced the attitudes towards and outcomes of urban box gardening in the city of Turku in Finland. We analyzed this small-scale social-ecological system before and during the pandemic in 2019, 2020, and 2021. We find that box gardening’s importance increased for many gardeners due to the pandemic, supporting that box gardening can enhance resilience. We find that gardeners remain motivated to cultivate but contrary to expectations, they report receiving fewer benefits, suggesting the pandemic’s negative influence on well-being extends to urban gardening. Our findings highlight the manifold and long-term influence of disturbances. The long-term changes in attitudes and outcomes suggest that the pandemic’s influence on urban gardening might be even transformative.
{"title":"Evidence of COVID-19 pandemic influence on well-being produced by urban gardening: a before-after study","authors":"Laura S. Tuominen, Heikki Helanterä, Patrik Karell, Lauri Rapeli, Timo Vuorisalo, Jon E. Brommer","doi":"10.1038/s42949-024-00174-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s42949-024-00174-9","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic showed us that maintaining and increasing individual and community resilience is essential, particularly in cities. Access to urban green spaces such as parks and gardens supports resilience and well-being. Here, we studied how the pandemic influenced the attitudes towards and outcomes of urban box gardening in the city of Turku in Finland. We analyzed this small-scale social-ecological system before and during the pandemic in 2019, 2020, and 2021. We find that box gardening’s importance increased for many gardeners due to the pandemic, supporting that box gardening can enhance resilience. We find that gardeners remain motivated to cultivate but contrary to expectations, they report receiving fewer benefits, suggesting the pandemic’s negative influence on well-being extends to urban gardening. Our findings highlight the manifold and long-term influence of disturbances. The long-term changes in attitudes and outcomes suggest that the pandemic’s influence on urban gardening might be even transformative.","PeriodicalId":74322,"journal":{"name":"npj urban sustainability","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-024-00174-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Online food delivery has become a popular mode of urban food consumption in China as its underlying business mechanism, Online To Offline (O2O), gaining popularity. However, the environmental impacts of a rapidly expanding online food delivery industry and its potential to mitigate environmental burdens remained unexplored in China. Our research found that Chinese cities generated 1.67 MtCO2-equivalent (CO2e) from 13.07 billion times of deliveries in 2019, including transport and packaging. The transportation-related GHG emissions were 745 KtCO2e in 2019, with an average of 0.057 kg CO2e per order and an average of 0.011 kg CO2e per capita. These emissions have surged from 0.31 MtCO2e in 2014 to 2.74 MtCO2e in 2021. We predict that this figure will increase further to 5.94 MtCO2e by 2035. However, with a range of policies such as replacing motorcycles with electric bikes and optimizing traffic routes, it is possible to mitigate such GHG emissions by 4.39–10.97 MtCO2e between 2023 and 2035. These findings highlight the need for further research into the environmental impact of online food delivery and the potential for mitigating it.
{"title":"Carbon emissions from urban takeaway delivery in China","authors":"Yiqiang Zhong, Shenghui Cui, Xuemei Bai, Wei Shang, Wei Huang, Lingxuan Liu, Shouyang Wang, Rongxuan Zhu, Yuanxiao Zhai, Yin Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s42949-024-00175-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s42949-024-00175-8","url":null,"abstract":"Online food delivery has become a popular mode of urban food consumption in China as its underlying business mechanism, Online To Offline (O2O), gaining popularity. However, the environmental impacts of a rapidly expanding online food delivery industry and its potential to mitigate environmental burdens remained unexplored in China. Our research found that Chinese cities generated 1.67 MtCO2-equivalent (CO2e) from 13.07 billion times of deliveries in 2019, including transport and packaging. The transportation-related GHG emissions were 745 KtCO2e in 2019, with an average of 0.057 kg CO2e per order and an average of 0.011 kg CO2e per capita. These emissions have surged from 0.31 MtCO2e in 2014 to 2.74 MtCO2e in 2021. We predict that this figure will increase further to 5.94 MtCO2e by 2035. However, with a range of policies such as replacing motorcycles with electric bikes and optimizing traffic routes, it is possible to mitigate such GHG emissions by 4.39–10.97 MtCO2e between 2023 and 2035. These findings highlight the need for further research into the environmental impact of online food delivery and the potential for mitigating it.","PeriodicalId":74322,"journal":{"name":"npj urban sustainability","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-024-00175-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-24DOI: 10.1038/s42949-024-00177-6
Yue Wang, Qi Fu, Jie Guo, Tinghui Wang, Jinhua Chen
Assessing the impact of past and future urban land expansion on ecosystem services (ESs) is essential for the sustainable management of urban landscapes. Despite recent progress, it remains challenging to determine the influence mechanism of different urbanization stages and areas on ESs and their trade-offs/synergies. Here, we analyzed the responses of four ESs and their trade-offs/synergies to the spatial and temporal differentiation of urbanization in the Su-Xi-Chang region of China from 1990 to 2050. The results showed that the relationship between ESs and urbanization followed a U-shaped curve from 1990 to 2050. Between 1990 and 2020, urbanization weakened trade-offs and enhanced lose-lose situations, exhibiting an S-shaped curve. From 2020 to 2050, lose-lose situations are expected to diminish, and the curve is projected to display a downward trend. Our findings suggest the implementation of compact urban development, sustainable agricultural practices, reforestation, and the conversion of farmland to lakes.
评估过去和未来城市土地扩张对生态系统服务（ES）的影响对于城市景观的可持续管理至关重要。尽管最近取得了一些进展，但确定不同城市化阶段和地区对生态系统服务及其权衡/协同作用的影响机制仍具有挑战性。在此，我们分析了1990-2050年中国苏锡常地区四种生态系统及其权衡/协同作用对城市化时空分异的响应。结果表明，从 1990 年到 2050 年，生态系统服务与城市化之间的关系呈 U 型曲线。1990-2020 年间，城市化弱化了权衡，加剧了双输，呈现 S 型曲线。从 2020 年到 2050 年，两败俱伤的情况预计会减少，曲线预计会呈下降趋势。我们的研究结果表明，应实施紧凑型城市发展、可持续农业实践、植树造林以及将农田转化为湖泊。
{"title":"Unveiling the dynamics of urbanization and ecosystem services: insights from the Su-Xi-Chang Region, China","authors":"Yue Wang, Qi Fu, Jie Guo, Tinghui Wang, Jinhua Chen","doi":"10.1038/s42949-024-00177-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s42949-024-00177-6","url":null,"abstract":"Assessing the impact of past and future urban land expansion on ecosystem services (ESs) is essential for the sustainable management of urban landscapes. Despite recent progress, it remains challenging to determine the influence mechanism of different urbanization stages and areas on ESs and their trade-offs/synergies. Here, we analyzed the responses of four ESs and their trade-offs/synergies to the spatial and temporal differentiation of urbanization in the Su-Xi-Chang region of China from 1990 to 2050. The results showed that the relationship between ESs and urbanization followed a U-shaped curve from 1990 to 2050. Between 1990 and 2020, urbanization weakened trade-offs and enhanced lose-lose situations, exhibiting an S-shaped curve. From 2020 to 2050, lose-lose situations are expected to diminish, and the curve is projected to display a downward trend. Our findings suggest the implementation of compact urban development, sustainable agricultural practices, reforestation, and the conversion of farmland to lakes.","PeriodicalId":74322,"journal":{"name":"npj urban sustainability","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-024-00177-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141808969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-24DOI: 10.1038/s42949-024-00173-w
Felix Creutzig, Sophia Becker, Peter Berrill, Constanze Bongs, Alexandra Bussler, Ben Cave, Sara M. Constantino, Marcus Grant, Niko Heeren, Eva Heinen, Marie Josefine Hintz, Timothee Ingen-Housz, Eric Johnson, Nina Kolleck, Charlotte Liotta, Sylvia Lorek, Giulio Mattioli, Leila Niamir, Timon McPhearson, Nikola Milojevic-Dupont, Florian Nachtigall, Kai Nagel, Henriette Närger, Minal Pathak, Paola Perrin de Brichambaut, Diana Reckien, Lucia A. Reisch, Aromar Revi, Fabian Schuppert, Andrew Sudmant, Felix Wagner, Janina Walkenhorst, Elke Weber, Michael Wilmes, Charlie Wilson, Aicha Zekar
{"title":"Publisher Correction: Towards a public policy of cities and human settlements in the 21st century","authors":"Felix Creutzig, Sophia Becker, Peter Berrill, Constanze Bongs, Alexandra Bussler, Ben Cave, Sara M. Constantino, Marcus Grant, Niko Heeren, Eva Heinen, Marie Josefine Hintz, Timothee Ingen-Housz, Eric Johnson, Nina Kolleck, Charlotte Liotta, Sylvia Lorek, Giulio Mattioli, Leila Niamir, Timon McPhearson, Nikola Milojevic-Dupont, Florian Nachtigall, Kai Nagel, Henriette Närger, Minal Pathak, Paola Perrin de Brichambaut, Diana Reckien, Lucia A. Reisch, Aromar Revi, Fabian Schuppert, Andrew Sudmant, Felix Wagner, Janina Walkenhorst, Elke Weber, Michael Wilmes, Charlie Wilson, Aicha Zekar","doi":"10.1038/s42949-024-00173-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s42949-024-00173-w","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74322,"journal":{"name":"npj urban sustainability","volume":" ","pages":"1-1"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-024-00173-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-24DOI: 10.1038/s42949-024-00176-7
T. Boutreux, M. Bourgeois, A. Bellec, F. Commeaux, B. Kaufmann
To improve biodiversity and human living conditions in the Anthropocene, urban forms must reconcile density with vegetation to meet the dual sustainability-liveability challenge. This paradox poses a dilemma for urban planners and is a critical research issue requiring comprehensive analyses. Multi-family residential housing holds the potential to achieve balanced density-greening, proximity ecosystem services and human-nature connectedness, but meeting such objectives relies on finding balanced morphologies and metrics at an operational scale. Analysing 11,593 plots in the Lyon metropolitan area (France) using a systemic approach, we identified critical tipping points in morphology and greening. Density explained only 6% of Plot Greening, while morphology and landscaping accounted for 94%. We identified an open-space ratio (unbuilt area/floor area) >0.3 as a morphological threshold to achieve sustainable green supply. Operational morphologies balancing density and greening were modelled and illustrated across building heights, providing guidelines for emerging regulatory tools in sustainable urban planning.
{"title":"Addressing the sustainable urbanism paradox: tipping points for the operational reconciliation of dense and green morphologies","authors":"T. Boutreux, M. Bourgeois, A. Bellec, F. Commeaux, B. Kaufmann","doi":"10.1038/s42949-024-00176-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s42949-024-00176-7","url":null,"abstract":"To improve biodiversity and human living conditions in the Anthropocene, urban forms must reconcile density with vegetation to meet the dual sustainability-liveability challenge. This paradox poses a dilemma for urban planners and is a critical research issue requiring comprehensive analyses. Multi-family residential housing holds the potential to achieve balanced density-greening, proximity ecosystem services and human-nature connectedness, but meeting such objectives relies on finding balanced morphologies and metrics at an operational scale. Analysing 11,593 plots in the Lyon metropolitan area (France) using a systemic approach, we identified critical tipping points in morphology and greening. Density explained only 6% of Plot Greening, while morphology and landscaping accounted for 94%. We identified an open-space ratio (unbuilt area/floor area) >0.3 as a morphological threshold to achieve sustainable green supply. Operational morphologies balancing density and greening were modelled and illustrated across building heights, providing guidelines for emerging regulatory tools in sustainable urban planning.","PeriodicalId":74322,"journal":{"name":"npj urban sustainability","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-024-00176-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141809722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-16DOI: 10.1038/s42949-024-00169-6
Kilian Perrelet, Marco Moretti, Andreas Dietzel, Florian Altermatt, Lauren M. Cook
{"title":"Publisher Correction: Engineering blue-green infrastructure for and with biodiversity in cities","authors":"Kilian Perrelet, Marco Moretti, Andreas Dietzel, Florian Altermatt, Lauren M. Cook","doi":"10.1038/s42949-024-00169-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s42949-024-00169-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74322,"journal":{"name":"npj urban sustainability","volume":" ","pages":"1-1"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-024-00169-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141631247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Cities in developing countries are fast transforming from area-based expansion, representing spatial growth, to volumetric expansion, representing a higher skyline. Existing urban growth prediction models predict only spatial or two-dimensional growth. This paper demonstrates a volumetric urban growth model, incorporating the vertical expansion of urban areas. Two separate models were calibrated for spatial and built-up height growth, using historical growth patterns of transit-triggered new town development in India. The models were applied to upcoming transit station areas in India to predict the volumetric urban expansion for the next twenty years.
{"title":"Modelling volumetric growth of emerging urban areas around new transit stations","authors":"Omkar Deepak Karmarkar, Arnab Jana, Nagendra Rao Velaga","doi":"10.1038/s42949-024-00171-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s42949-024-00171-y","url":null,"abstract":"Cities in developing countries are fast transforming from area-based expansion, representing spatial growth, to volumetric expansion, representing a higher skyline. Existing urban growth prediction models predict only spatial or two-dimensional growth. This paper demonstrates a volumetric urban growth model, incorporating the vertical expansion of urban areas. Two separate models were calibrated for spatial and built-up height growth, using historical growth patterns of transit-triggered new town development in India. The models were applied to upcoming transit station areas in India to predict the volumetric urban expansion for the next twenty years.","PeriodicalId":74322,"journal":{"name":"npj urban sustainability","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-024-00171-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141608140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-11DOI: 10.1038/s42949-024-00170-z
Yi’na Hu, Dylan Shane Connor, Michelle Stuhlmacher, Jian Peng, B. L. Turner II
This article examines whether the patterns of urbanization in China over the past twenty years have resulted in a more balanced or increasingly polarized city size distribution. China is an important study area due to the immense scale of its urbanization and the substantial role of its planners in coordinating and striving for more balanced development patterns. This study utilizes measures of the spatial and temporal characteristics of built-up area (BUA) expansion across 23 urban agglomerations in China, focusing on size dynamics through the urban primacy index and Pareto exponent. The BUA within these 23 UAs increased by 280.90% in the study period. Coastal urban agglomerations were larger in size at baseline and maintained relatively high annual growth rates compared to inland agglomerations, indicating rising polarization. Changes within agglomerations were indicative of declining polarization, as evidenced by the reduction in the urban primacy index and the increase of Pareto exponent. Policies implemented to achieve enhanced urbanization coordination in China appear to be partially successful, but the growth of urban regions with existing large size continues to fuel uneven urban development and polarization.
{"title":"More urbanization, more polarization: evidence from two decades of urban expansion in China","authors":"Yi’na Hu, Dylan Shane Connor, Michelle Stuhlmacher, Jian Peng, B. L. Turner II","doi":"10.1038/s42949-024-00170-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s42949-024-00170-z","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines whether the patterns of urbanization in China over the past twenty years have resulted in a more balanced or increasingly polarized city size distribution. China is an important study area due to the immense scale of its urbanization and the substantial role of its planners in coordinating and striving for more balanced development patterns. This study utilizes measures of the spatial and temporal characteristics of built-up area (BUA) expansion across 23 urban agglomerations in China, focusing on size dynamics through the urban primacy index and Pareto exponent. The BUA within these 23 UAs increased by 280.90% in the study period. Coastal urban agglomerations were larger in size at baseline and maintained relatively high annual growth rates compared to inland agglomerations, indicating rising polarization. Changes within agglomerations were indicative of declining polarization, as evidenced by the reduction in the urban primacy index and the increase of Pareto exponent. Policies implemented to achieve enhanced urbanization coordination in China appear to be partially successful, but the growth of urban regions with existing large size continues to fuel uneven urban development and polarization.","PeriodicalId":74322,"journal":{"name":"npj urban sustainability","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-024-00170-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141608139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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