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Leveraging Contact Network Information in Clustered Randomized Studies of Contagion Processes. 在传染过程的聚类随机研究中利用接触网络信息
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2023.0021
Maxwell H Wang, Patrick Staples, Mélanie Prague, Ravi Goyal, Victor DeGruttola, Jukka-Pekka Onnela

In a randomized study, leveraging covariates related to the outcome (e.g. disease status) may produce less variable estimates of the effect of exposure. For contagion processes operating on a contact network, transmission can only occur through ties that connect affected and unaffected individuals; the outcome of such a process is known to depend intimately on the structure of the network. In this paper, we investigate the use of contact network features as efficiency covariates in exposure effect estimation. Using augmented generalized estimating equations (GEE), we estimate how gains in efficiency depend on the network structure and spread of the contagious agent or behavior. We apply this approach to simulated randomized trials using a stochastic compartmental contagion model on a collection of model-based contact networks and compare the bias, power, and variance of the estimated exposure effects using an assortment of network covariate adjustment strategies. We also demonstrate the use of network-augmented GEEs on a clustered randomized trial evaluating the effects of wastewater monitoring on COVID-19 cases in residential buildings at the the University of California San Diego.

在随机研究中,利用与结果相关的协变量(如疾病状态)可能会减少对暴露影响的估计值的变化。对于在接触网络上运行的传染过程,传播只能通过连接受影响个体和未受影响个体的纽带发生;众所周知,这种过程的结果与网络结构密切相关。在本文中,我们研究了在暴露效应估计中使用接触网络特征作为效率协变量的问题。通过使用增强型广义估计方程(GEE),我们估算了效率收益如何取决于网络结构以及传染性病原体或行为的传播。我们将这种方法应用于在一系列基于模型的接触网络上使用随机分区传染模型进行的模拟随机试验,并比较了使用各种网络协变量调整策略估算的暴露效果的偏差、功率和方差。我们还在加州大学圣地亚哥分校的一项聚类随机试验中演示了网络增强 GEE 的使用,该试验评估了废水监测对住宅楼 COVID-19 病例的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Bayesian Causal Forests & the 2022 ACIC Data Challenge: Scalability and Sensitivity 贝叶斯因果森林与2022 ACIC数据挑战:可扩展性和敏感性
Pub Date : 2022-11-03 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2023.0024
Ajinkya Kokandakar, Hyunseung Kang, Sameer K. Deshpande
Abstract:We demonstrate how Hahn et al.'s Bayesian Causal Forests model (BCF) can be used to estimate conditional average treatment effects for the longitudinal dataset in the 2022 American Causal Inference Conference Data Challenge. Unfortunately, existing implementations of BCF do not scale to the size of the challenge data. Therefore, we developed flexBCF—a more scalable and flexible implementation of BCF— and used it in our challenge submission. We investigate the sensitivity of our results to the choice of propensity score estimation method and the use of sparsity-inducing regression tree priors. While we found that our overall point predictions were not especially sensitive to these modeling choices, we did observe that running BCF with flexibly estimated propensity scores often yielded better-calibrated uncertainty intervals.
摘要:我们展示了Hahn等人的贝叶斯因果森林模型(BCF)如何在2022年美国因果推理会议数据挑战中用于估计纵向数据集的条件平均治疗效果。不幸的是,BCF的现有实现无法扩展到挑战数据的大小。因此,我们开发了flexBCF——一种更具可扩展性和灵活性的BCF实现——并在我们的挑战提交中使用了它。我们研究了我们的结果对倾向得分估计方法的选择和稀疏性诱导回归树先验的使用的敏感性。虽然我们发现我们的总体点预测对这些建模选择并不特别敏感,但我们确实观察到,用灵活估计的倾向得分运行BCF通常会产生更好的校准不确定性区间。
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引用次数: 0
Causal Inference: History, Perspectives, Adventures, and Unification (An Interview with Judea Pearl) 因果推理:历史、视角、冒险与统一(朱迪亚·珀尔访谈)
Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2022.0007
J. Pearl
In October 2022, the journal Observational Studies published interviews with 4 causal inference contributors, James Heckman, Jamie Robins, Don Rubin and myself [Observational Studies, 2022, 8(2):7–94. https://muse.jhu.edu/issue/48885]. My interview (with Ian Shrier) was conducted in June 2019, and is provided below as published. The only change made is the References section, which was incomplete in the published version. Fundamental disagreements with the other three interviewees and commentaries will be further discussed and posted on my blog.
2022年10月,《观察研究》杂志发表了对4位因果推理贡献者的采访,他们是James Heckman、Jamie Robins、Don Rubin和我自己[观察研究,2022,8(2):7-94]。https://muse.jhu.edu/issue/48885]。我(对伊恩·施勒)的采访是在2019年6月进行的,如下所示。唯一的变化是参考文献部分,这在发布版本中是不完整的。与其他三位受访者的根本分歧和评论将进一步讨论并发表在我的博客上。
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引用次数: 1
Interview with Don Rubin 唐·鲁宾访谈录
Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2022.0009
D. Rubin
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引用次数: 3
Causal Inference Perspectives 因果推理视角
Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2022.0012
E. T. Tchetgen Tchetgen
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引用次数: 0
Editor’s Note Editor’s音符
Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2022.0004
Nandita Mitra
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引用次数: 0
Interview with Jamie Robins Jamie Robins访谈
Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2022.0008
J. Robins
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引用次数: 2
Perspective on Interviews with Heckman, Pearl, Robins and Rubin 赫克曼、珀尔、罗宾斯、鲁宾访谈透视
Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2022.0010
V. Didelez
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引用次数: 0
Interview with James Heckman 詹姆斯·赫克曼访谈录
Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2022.0006
J. Heckman
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引用次数: 2
Causal Inference Perspectives 因果推理视角
Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/obs.2022.0011
F. Mealli
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引用次数: 0
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Observational studies
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