Proceedings of machine learning research最新文献

Wearable sensors enable health researchers to continuously collect data pertaining to the physiological state of individuals in real-world settings. However, such data can be subject to extensive missingness due to a complex combination of factors. In this work, we study the problem of imputation of missing step count data, one of the most ubiquitous forms of wearable sensor data. We construct a novel and large scale data set consisting of a training set with over 3 million hourly step count observations and a test set with over 2.5 million hourly step count observations. We propose a domain knowledge-informed sparse self-attention model for this task that captures the temporal multi-scale nature of step-count data. We assess the performance of the model relative to baselines and conduct ablation studies to verify our specific model designs.

Accurate uncertainty estimates are important in sequential model-based decision-making tasks such as Bayesian optimization. However, these estimates can be imperfect if the data violates assumptions made by the model (e.g., Gaussianity). This paper studies which uncertainties are needed in model-based decision-making and in Bayesian optimization, and argues that uncertainties can benefit from calibration-i.e., an 80% predictive interval should contain the true outcome 80% of the time. Maintaining calibration, however, can be challenging when the data is non-stationary and depends on our actions. We propose using simple algorithms based on online learning to provably maintain calibration on non-i.i.d. data, and we show how to integrate these algorithms in Bayesian optimization with minimal overhead. Empirically, we find that calibrated Bayesian optimization converges to better optima in fewer steps, and we demonstrate improved performance on standard benchmark functions and hyperparameter optimization tasks.

Recently developed survival analysis methods improve upon existing approaches by predicting the probability of event occurrence in each of a number pre-specified (discrete) time intervals. By avoiding placing strong parametric assumptions on the event density, this approach tends to improve prediction performance, particularly when data are plentiful. However, in clinical settings with limited available data, it is often preferable to judiciously partition the event time space into a limited number of intervals well suited to the prediction task at hand. In this work, we develop Adaptive Discretization for Event PredicTion (ADEPT) to learn from data a set of cut points defining such a partition. We show that in two simulated datasets, we are able to recover intervals that match the underlying generative model. We then demonstrate improved prediction performance on three real-world observational datasets, including a large, newly harmonized stroke risk prediction dataset. Finally, we argue that our approach facilitates clinical decision-making by suggesting time intervals that are most appropriate for each task, in the sense that they facilitate more accurate risk prediction.

Missing values are prevalent in temporal electronic health records (EHR) data and are known to complicate data analysis and lead to biased results. The current state-of-the-art (SOTA) models for imputing missing values in EHR primarily leverage correlations across time points and across features, which perform well when data have strong correlation across time points, such as in ICU data where high-frequency time series data are collected. However, this is often insufficient for temporal EHR data from non-ICU settings (e.g., outpatient visits for primary care or specialty care), where data are collected at substantially sparser time points, resulting in much weaker correlation across time points. To address this methodological gap, we propose the Similarity-Aware Diffusion Model-Based Imputation (SADI), a novel imputation method that leverages the diffusion model and utilizes information across dependent variables. We apply SADI to impute incomplete temporal EHR data and propose a similarity-aware denoising function, which includes a self-attention mechanism to model the correlations between time points, features, and similar patients. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that the information of similar patients is directly used to construct imputation for incomplete temporal EHR data. Our extensive experiments on two datasets, the Critical Path For Alzheimer's Disease (CPAD) data and the PhysioNet Challenge 2012 data, show that SADI outperforms the current SOTA under various missing data mechanisms, including missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR), and missing not at random (MNAR).

This paper introduces an online bilevel optimization setting in which a sequence of time-varying bilevel problems is revealed one after the other. We extend the known regret bounds for single-level online algorithms to the bilevel setting. Specifically, we provide new notions of bilevel regret, develop an online alternating time-averaged gradient method that is capable of leveraging smoothness, and give regret bounds in terms of the path-length of the inner and outer minimizer sequences.

Recent advances in unsupervised learning have shown that unsupervised pre-training, followed by fine-tuning, can improve model generalization. However, a rigorous understanding of how the representation function learned on an unlabeled dataset affects the generalization of the fine-tuned model is lacking. Existing theoretical research does not adequately account for the heterogeneity of the distribution and tasks in pre-training and fine-tuning stage. To bridge this gap, this paper introduces a novel theoretical framework that illuminates the critical factor influencing the transferability of knowledge acquired during unsupervised pre-training to the subsequent fine-tuning phase, ultimately affecting the generalization capabilities of the fine-tuned model on downstream tasks. We apply our theoretical framework to analyze generalization bound of two distinct scenarios: Context Encoder pre-training with deep neural networks and Masked Autoencoder pre-training with deep transformers, followed by fine-tuning on a binary classification task. Finally, inspired by our findings, we propose a novel regularization method during pre-training to further enhances the generalization of fine-tuned model. Overall, our results contribute to a better understanding of unsupervised pre-training and fine-tuning paradigm, and can shed light on the design of more effective pre-training algorithms.

We consider the contextual bandit problem where at each time, the agent only has access to a noisy version of the context and the error variance (or an estimator of this variance). This setting is motivated by a wide range of applications where the true context for decision-making is unobserved, and only a prediction of the context by a potentially complex machine learning algorithm is available. When the context error is non-vanishing, classical bandit algorithms fail to achieve sublinear regret. We propose the first online algorithm in this setting with sublinear regret guarantees under mild conditions. The key idea is to extend the measurement error model in classical statistics to the online decision-making setting, which is nontrivial due to the policy being dependent on the noisy context observations. We further demonstrate the benefits of the proposed approach in simulation environments based on synthetic and real digital intervention datasets.

Interpretability is crucial for doctors, hospitals, pharmaceutical companies and biotechnology corporations to analyze and make decisions for high stakes problems that involve human health. Tree-based methods have been widely adopted for survival analysis due to their appealing interpretablility and their ability to capture complex relationships. However, most existing methods to produce survival trees rely on heuristic (or greedy) algorithms, which risk producing sub-optimal models. We present a dynamic-programming-with-bounds approach that finds provably-optimal sparse survival tree models, frequently in only a few seconds.

An individualized treatment rule (ITR) is a decision rule that recommends treatments for patients based on their individual feature variables. In many practices, the ideal ITR for the primary outcome is also expected to cause minimal harm to other secondary outcomes. Therefore, our objective is to learn an ITR that not only maximizes the value function for the primary outcome, but also approximates the optimal rule for the secondary outcomes as closely as possible. To achieve this goal, we introduce a fusion penalty to encourage the ITRs based on different outcomes to yield similar recommendations. Two algorithms are proposed to estimate the ITR using surrogate loss functions. We prove that the agreement rate between the estimated ITR of the primary outcome and the optimal ITRs of the secondary outcomes converges to the true agreement rate faster than if the secondary outcomes are not taken into consideration. Furthermore, we derive the non-asymptotic properties of the value function and misclassification rate for the proposed method. Finally, simulation studies and a real data example are used to demonstrate the finite-sample performance of the proposed method.

AI-enabled precision medicine promises a transformational improvement in healthcare outcomes. However, training on biomedical data presents significant challenges as they are often high dimensional, clustered, and of limited sample size. To overcome these challenges, we propose a simple and scalable approach for cluster-aware embedding that combines latent factor methods with a convex clustering penalty in a modular way. Our novel approach overcomes the complexity and limitations of current joint embedding and clustering methods and enables hierarchically clustered principal component analysis (PCA), locally linear embedding (LLE), and canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Through numerical experiments and real-world examples, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms fourteen clustering methods on highly underdetermined problems (e.g., with limited sample size) as well as on large sample datasets. Importantly, our approach does not require the user to choose the desired number of clusters, yields improved model selection if they do, and yields interpretable hierarchically clustered embedding dendrograms. Thus, our approach improves significantly on existing methods for identifying patient subgroups in multiomics and neuroimaging data and enables scalable and interpretable biomarkers for precision medicine.