The Geneva papers on risk and insurance. Issues and practice最新文献

Improvements in forecasting technologies create opportunities for anticipatory actions before disasters occur. However, traditional ex post financing and limited operational capacity often prevent countries from acting early. This paper examines anticipatory index insurance, specifically African Risk Capacity's pilot program in Malawi and Zambia for drought risk, which offers capacity building and forecast-based financing for early actions. However, its benefits are unclear given the trade-off between early actions based on imperfect forecasts and post-disaster relief after certain losses. Since imperfect forecasts increase basis risk, anticipatory index insurance can exacerbate this trade-off. Using a stylized economic model and numerical analysis, we identify conditions under which anticipatory insurance is beneficial. Results show that its primary value lies in building operational capacity for forecast-based actions. However, due to basis risk, the incremental value from insurance payouts may not always justify the premium costs. Our findings can help governments and aid agencies design optimal financing strategies for anticipatory actions.

Insurtech is closely associated with digital transformation by new entrants that seek to disrupt insurance markets. However, the insurtech concept also includes its use by incumbent insurance companies, which are actively deploying a wide variety of insurtech applications to protect their market positions through innovation of their existing business models, e.g. through improved business processes or new insurance services. A theoretical insurtech business innovation model is developed that captures the effects of digital technology in insurance markets by considering innovation as a multi-dimensional concept that encompasses business processes, novel insurance products and changes to the insurance value chain. This framework is applied to an empirical sample of digital leaders: three incumbents and four new entrants. The results illustrate a variety of insurtech applications that include the transformation of business processes, products and new types of value chain configuration, as well as relatively minor enhancements to existing systems and business practices. It is shown that all the new entrants exploit artificial intelligence, big data and digital technology to build brand-new insurance services that emphasise innovative product features, high customer value and a delightful customer experience. In contrast, the legacy insurance firms tend to use digital technology in a defensive manner, e.g. the enhancement of existing insurance services, distribution channels and market positions. The exception is the launch of a telematics insurance service by an incumbent firm, where the telematics insurance effectively operates as a standalone business within a legacy insurance firm. The theory model is effective at analysing and evaluating both the type and magnitude of innovation. The case studies make an empirical contribution by illustrating state-of-the-art innovation by insurance disruptors and contrasts this with the defensive and sometimes novel digital strategies of incumbent firms. Future trends and research opportunities are outlined.

This study explores the impact of big data analytics investment on loss reserve accuracy in the U.S. property-liability insurance industry. Utilising a dataset of 1243 insurers from 2002 to 2016, we find a significant association between higher investment in big data analytics and more accurate loss reserve estimates. Our analysis distinguishes between over-reserving and under-reserving behaviours, revealing that big data analytics contributes to the reduction of both. The study employs entropy balancing, internal instrumental variable estimation and errors-in-variables regressions to enhance the robustness of the findings. This research not only fills a gap in the academic literature but also provides practical implications for enhancing the precision of loss reserve estimates through technological investments.

Turkiye is a country with significant production potential in the world beekeeping sector, being among the top four countries worldwide. In this study, aggregate claims based on data on the hive insurance policies of the companies operating in the beekeeping sector in Turkiye, covering the years 2014–2021, was modelled using a collective risk model and premium calculations for aggregate claims were determined according to different calculation principles. Cluster analysis was conducted to calculate the premiums, and similarities between provinces were revealed based on claims ratios. The results of the study revealed that the highest premiums are found in Eastern Anatolia while the lowest premiums are found in Central Anatolia. In the case of Muğla, Ordu and Hakkâri provinces, which differed in the cluster analysis, the highest premiums were found for Hakkâri province.

European insurers are allowed to make discretionary decisions in the calculation of Solvency II capital requirements. These choices include the design of risk models (ranging from a standard formula to a full internal model) and the use of long-term guarantees measures. This article examines the situation of insurers that utilize the discretionary scope regarding capital requirements for market risks. In a first step of our analysis, we assess the risk profiles of 49 stock insurers using daily market data. In a second step, we exploit hand-collected Solvency II data for the years 2016 to 2020. We find that long-term guarantees measures substantially influence the reported solvency ratios. The measures are chosen particularly by less solvent insurers and those with high interest rate and sovereign credit risk sensitivities. Internal models are used more frequently by large insurers and especially for market risks for which they have already found adequate immunization strategies.

We examine the role of technology expense and asset data items with insurer efficiency. We show that insurers increasing investment in technology classified as expenses, experience increases in allocative efficiency the following year. Insurers that increase expenditures classified as technology assets realize decreases in cost and allocative efficiency the next year. In addition, we find that expensed technology contains different information than those classified as assets with the association of expenditures in assets with efficiency dominating expensed technology. Our findings support that expensed technology items are for innovative applications and technology assets are used to support general business operations. We also explore the possibility that the reduction of commissions to agents is a mediator through which technology expenses affect efficiency, but do not find support for this mediation.

We examine how corporate risk management can be used to address a firm’s vulnerability to cyber risk. We use a large, novel dataset on cyber risk and corporate risk management to analyse US insurers’ cyber loss events during the period of 2000–2021. Our analysis includes information on whether insurers have implemented an enterprise risk management (ERM) programme and whether they report applying cyber risk management (CRM). The results illustrate that the implementation of CRM measures may have no significant effect on cyber risk mitigation. However, we determine that the likelihood (frequency) of a cyber loss event decreases by 3.9% (6.8%) as ERM programmes mature year on year. We also find that an insurer can benefit from implementing both CRM and ERM through a lowered event likelihood (frequency) of 3.8 percentage points on average (3.7 percentage points) per year compared to solely implementing an ERM programme.

Around the world, there are persistent and growing health inequalities both between and within countries. The U.K. Government’s flagship policy for addressing inequalities is called ‘Levelling Up’. One of its missions is to narrow the gap in healthy life expectancy (HLE) between the healthiest and unhealthiest areas in England and to improve overall HLE by 5 years by 2035. We show that smoking is one of the major causes of health inequalities. We find a 17-year difference in HLE between local authorities, and that the number of years spent in ill health tended to be greatest in areas with the highest mortality from smoking-related disease. Our aim is to see if the 5-year target could be achieved, assuming there were drastic controls on the sale and consumption of tobacco. We show that never smokers enjoy six more years of good health at age 20 than current or ex-smokers. A complete ban on smoking would lead to a 2.5-year improvement in HLE, and also lengthen the working lives of both men and women. We conclude that while a complete tobacco ban is significant, other public health measures are needed for the full achievement of the target. The paper briefly considers wider issues and suggestions for further research and its international significance.

Microinsurance has emerged as a potential way to fortify the financial resilience of low-income households by providing a safety net against economic uncertainty and promoting financial inclusion for the poor. In light of the current economic downturn in Ghana, several institutions have advocated for the implementation of microinsurance programmes to support the financial stability of low-income households in the informal sector. This study assesses the impact of microinsurance on the financial resilience of the poor in Ghana, proxied by income and precautionary savings. The study analyses data on 1453 households from three regions using propensity score matching, Tobit and Probit instrumental variable techniques. The study finds that microinsurance adoption improves the financial resilience of the poor and reduces dependence on precautionary savings, a self-insurance strategy which significantly increases the financial burden on households, thereby exacerbating the impact of shocks.