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Invited discussant comments during the UCL-Penn Global COVID Study webinar 'Reflections, Resilience, and Recovery: A qualitative study of Covid-19's impact on an international adult population's mental health and priorities for support': part 2 of 3. 在伦敦大学学院-宾夕法尼亚大学全球COVID研究网络研讨会“反思、弹性和恢复:COVID -19对国际成年人心理健康和支持优先事项的影响的定性研究”(3 / 2)期间,受邀讨论嘉宾发表评论。
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.100006
Morgan Vine

This discussant commentary considers the findings presented from the UCL-Penn Global COVID Study webinar 'Let's Talk! What do you need to recover from Covid-19?'. The research presented highlights a number of key issues that have affected people of all ages throughout the pandemic. Our aim with this article is to reflect on these themes and, using our own qualitative and quantitative research conducted throughout the pandemic, explore whether the people we spoke to in later life expressed challenges, concerns and frustrations with the same issues as those expressed in Dr Wong's study. As a national charity that supports people in later life, Independent Age has been incredibly concerned by the impact of the pandemic specifically on people aged 65 and over, and believe more must be done by decision-makers in the government and National Health Service (NHS) to support them to recover from the pandemic.

这篇讨论者评论考虑了伦敦大学学院-宾夕法尼亚大学全球COVID研究网络研讨会“让我们谈谈!”从Covid-19中恢复需要什么?提出的研究突出了在大流行期间影响所有年龄段人群的一些关键问题。我们写这篇文章的目的是反思这些主题,并利用我们在大流行期间进行的定性和定量研究,探讨我们采访的人在晚年是否表达了与黄博士研究中表达的问题相同的挑战、担忧和沮丧。作为一个支持人们晚年生活的国家慈善机构,独立年龄一直非常关注大流行对65岁及以上人群的影响,并认为政府和国家卫生服务体系(NHS)的决策者必须做更多的工作,以支持他们从大流行中恢复过来。
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引用次数: 0
Hygrothermal monitoring of replacement infill panels for historic timber-frame buildings: initial findings. 历史木结构建筑替换填充板的热湿监测:初步发现。
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000039
Chris J Whitman, Oriel Prizeman, Pete Walker, Iain McCaig, Soki Rhee-Duverne

Energy retrofits aim to improve the thermal performance of buildings' external envelopes. With buildings of traditional construction there exists the risk that these improvements may lead to interstitial condensation and moisture accumulation. For historic timber-framed buildings, this potentially exposes the embedded historic timbers to conditions favouring fungal decay and insect infestation. Hygrothermal digital simulations can assess this risk, but these have limitations, especially regarding the study of historic and traditional materials, due to a lack of accurate material data. The research presented in this paper therefore uses the monitoring of physical test panels to examine the performance of four different infill solutions. These are, traditional wattle and daub, a composite of wood fibre and wood wool boards, expanded cork board, and hempcrete. The article focuses on the design and construction of the test cell and presents initial results from the first year of monitoring, following the initial drying phase. These showed no evidence of interstitial condensation in any of the panel build-ups, with increases in moisture content correlating directly with climatic measurements of wind-driven rain. Infill materials with low moisture permeability were seen to produce higher moisture contents at the interface with the external render due to the concentration of moisture at this point. Those panels finished in the more moisture permeable lime-hemp plaster, overall present lower moisture contents, with reduced drying times. The use of perimeter, non-moisture permeable, sealants would appear to potentially trap moisture at the junction between infill and historic timber-frame. The monitoring work is ongoing.

能源改造旨在改善建筑外部围护结构的热性能。对于传统建筑来说,这些改进可能会导致间隙冷凝和积湿。对于历史悠久的木结构建筑,这可能会使嵌入的历史木材暴露在有利于真菌腐烂和昆虫侵扰的条件下。湿热数字模拟可以评估这种风险,但由于缺乏准确的材料数据,这些模拟有局限性,特别是在对历史和传统材料的研究方面。因此,本文提出的研究使用物理测试面板的监测来检查四种不同填充解决方案的性能。这些是,传统的木条和涂抹,木纤维和木羊毛板的复合材料,膨胀软木板和大麻混凝土。本文重点介绍了测试单元的设计和构造,并介绍了在初始干燥阶段之后第一年监测的初步结果。这些数据显示,没有证据表明在任何面板堆积中存在间隙凝结,水分含量的增加与风驱动降雨的气候测量结果直接相关。低透湿性的填充材料在与外部渲染的界面处产生较高的水分含量,因为此时的水分浓度较高。这些面板完成在更透湿石灰-大麻石膏,整体呈现较低的水分含量,减少干燥时间。使用周长、不透湿的密封胶可能会在填充物和历史木结构之间的连接处捕获水分。监测工作正在进行中。
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引用次数: 1
Achieving a healthy indoor environment by using an emissions barrier to stop the spread of chemicals from a building into the indoor air. 通过使用排放屏障来阻止化学物质从建筑物扩散到室内空气中,从而实现健康的室内环境。
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000033
Lennart Larsson, Johan Mattsson

An emissions barrier was used in a premises due to complaints about the indoor air quality (IAQ) as a result of emissions from the building in question. The emissions comprised chlorophenols/chloroanisoles and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) from treated wood and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), mainly 2-ethylhexanol, from polyvinyl chloride (PVC) flooring and the glue used to paste the flooring onto a concrete slab. Attaching the barrier at the surfaces from where the emissions were spread (floor, walls, ceilings) resulted in a fresh and odour-free indoor air. We conclude that using an emissions barrier in buildings made unhealthy by moisture is an efficient way of restoring pleasant and healthy indoor air.

由于有关楼宇的废气排放对室内空气质素造成投诉,本署在一处所安装了排放屏障。这些排放物包括处理过的木材中的氯酚/氯苯醚和多环芳烃(PAH),以及聚氯乙烯(PVC)地板和用于将地板粘贴到混凝土板上的胶水中的挥发性有机化合物(VOCs),主要是2-乙基己醇。在排放物扩散的表面(地板、墙壁、天花板)安装屏障,可以产生新鲜无气味的室内空气。我们得出的结论是,在因潮湿而不健康的建筑物中使用排放屏障是恢复舒适和健康的室内空气的有效方法。
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引用次数: 1
In-situ measurements of wall moisture in a historic building in response to the installation of an impermeable floor. 在一座历史建筑中安装防渗地板后,对墙体湿度进行现场测量。
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000046
Kevin Briggs, Richard Ball, Iain McCaig

When impermeable ground bearing slabs are installed in old buildings without a damp-proof course, it is a common belief of conservation practitioners that ground moisture will be 'driven' up adjacent walls by capillary action. However, there is limited evidence to test this hypothesis. An experiment was used to determine if the installation of a vapour-proof barrier above a flagstone floor in a historic building would increase moisture content levels in an adjacent stone rubble wall. This was achieved by undertaking measurements of wall, soil and atmospheric moisture content over a 3-year period. Measurements taken using timber dowels showed that the moisture content within the wall did not vary in response to wall evaporation rates and did not increase following the installation of a vapour-proof barrier above the floor. This indicates that the moisture levels in the rubble wall were not influenced by changes in the vapour-permeability of the floor.

当在没有防潮层的旧建筑物内安装不透水的承重楼板时,环保工作者普遍认为,地面的水分会被毛细作用“驱使”到邻近的墙壁上。然而,验证这一假设的证据有限。一项实验是用来确定在一座历史建筑的石板地板上安装一个防蒸汽屏障是否会增加相邻石墙的水分含量。这是通过在3年的时间里测量墙壁、土壤和大气水分来实现的。使用木钉进行的测量表明,墙内的水分含量没有随着墙的蒸发速率而变化,并且在地板上方安装了防蒸汽屏障后也没有增加。这表明,碎石墙的水分水平不受地板透气性变化的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Invited discussant comments during the UCL-Penn Global COVID Study webinar 'Doctoral Students' Educational Stress and Mental Health'. 应邀在UCL-Penn全球COVID研究网络研讨会“博士生的教育压力和心理健康”上发表评论。
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.100005
Tara Béteille

This discussant commentary considers the findings presented in the UCL-Penn Global COVID Study webinar 4 'Doctoral Students' Educational Stress and Mental Health' and the research article published from the series of webinar in this journal, 'The effects of cumulative stressful educational events on the mental health of doctoral students during the Covid-19 pandemic'. The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted the education of hundreds of thousands of graduate students worldwide by curtailing their access to laboratories, libraries, and face-to-face interactions with peers and supervisors. This has resulted in considerable stress, given that expectations on research productivity during the period have remained unchanged. This note suggests three principles to help graduate students cope with the impact of Covid-19 on their educational journey: (1) support student resilience; (2) support student learning; and (3) support students technologically.

这篇讨论评论考虑了UCL-Penn全球COVID研究网络研讨会4“博士生的教育压力和心理健康”中提出的研究结果,以及发表在本杂志系列网络研讨会上的研究文章“COVID -19大流行期间累积压力教育事件对博士生心理健康的影响”。2019冠状病毒病大流行扰乱了全球数十万研究生的教育,减少了他们进入实验室和图书馆的机会,也减少了他们与同龄人和导师面对面交流的机会。这造成了相当大的压力,因为在此期间对研究生产力的期望没有改变。本文提出了三项原则,以帮助研究生应对Covid-19对其教育旅程的影响:(1)支持学生的适应能力;(2)支持学生学习;(3)在技术上支持学生。
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引用次数: 1
Key opportunities and challenges for the use of big data in migration research and policy. 在移民研究和政策中使用大数据的主要机遇和挑战。
Pub Date : 2021-10-27 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000027
Lydia H V Franklinos, Rebecca Parrish, Rachel Burns, Andrea Caflisch, Bishawjit Mallick, Taifur Rahman, Vasileios Routsis, Ana Sebastián López, Andrew J Tatem, Robert Trigwell

Migration is one of the defining issues of the 21st century. Better data is required to improve understanding about how and why people are moving, target interventions and support evidence-based migration policy. Big data, defined as large, complex data from diverse sources, is regularly proposed as a solution to help address current gaps in knowledge. The authors participated in a workshop held in London, UK, in July 2019, that brought together experts from the United Nations (UN), humanitarian non-governmental organisations (NGOs), policy and academia to develop a better understanding of how big data could be used for migration research and policy. We identified six key areas regarding the application of big data in migration research and policy: accessing and utilising data; integrating data sources and knowledge; understanding environmental drivers of migration; improving healthcare access for migrant populations; ethical and security concerns around the use of big data; and addressing political narratives. We advocate the need for careful consideration of the challenges faced by the use of big data, as well as increased cross-disciplinary collaborations to advance the use of big data in migration research whilst safeguarding vulnerable migrant communities.

移民是 21 世纪的决定性问题之一。我们需要更好的数据,以更好地了解人口迁移的方式和原因,有针对性地采取干预措施,并支持循证移民政策。大数据被定义为来自不同来源的大型复杂数据,经常被提议作为帮助解决当前知识缺口的解决方案。作者参加了 2019 年 7 月在英国伦敦举行的研讨会,来自联合国(UN)、人道主义非政府组织(NGO)、政策和学术界的专家汇聚一堂,共同探讨如何将大数据用于移民研究和政策。我们确定了有关在移民研究和政策中应用大数据的六个关键领域:获取和利用数据;整合数据源和知识;了解移民的环境驱动因素;改善移民人口的医疗保健服务;围绕大数据使用的伦理和安全问题;以及解决政治叙事问题。我们主张需要认真考虑使用海量数据所面临的挑战,并加强跨学科合作,以推进海量数据在移民研究中的使用,同时保护弱势移民群体。
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引用次数: 0
The closure of the Vardar Ocean (the western domain of the northern Neotethys) from the early Middle Jurassic to the Paleocene time, based on the surface geology of eastern Pelagonia and the Vardar zone, biostratigraphy, and seismic-tomographic images of the mantle below the Central Hellenides. 根据东伯拉哥尼亚和瓦尔达尔区的地表地质学、生物地层学以及中希腊半岛下方地幔的地震-地貌图像,研究了瓦尔达尔洋(北新特提斯西部)从早中侏罗世到古新世时期的封闭情况。
Pub Date : 2021-09-22 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000024
Rudolph Scherreiks, Marcelle BouDagher-Fadel

Seismic tomographic images of the mantle below the Hellenides indicate that the Vardar Ocean probably had a composite width of over 3000 km. From surface geology we know that this ocean was initially located between two passive margins: Pelagonian Adria in the west and Serbo-Macedonian-Eurasia in the east. Pelagonia was covered by a carbonate platform that accumulated, during Late Triassic to Early Cretaceous time, where highly diversified carbonate sedimentary environments evolved and reacted to the adjacent, converging Vardar Ocean plate. We conceive that on the east side of the Vardar Ocean, a Cretaceous carbonate platform evolved from the Aptian to the Maastrichtian time in the forearc basin of the Vardar supra-subduction volcanic arc complex. The closure of the Vardar Ocean occurred in one episode of ophiolite obduction and in two episodes of intra-oceanic subduction. 1. During the Middle Jurassic time a 1200-km slab of west Vardar lithosphere subducted beneath the supra-subduction, 'Eohellenic', arc, while a 200-km-wide slab obducted onto Pelagonia between the Callovian and Valanginian times. 2. During the Late Jurassic through to the Cretaceous time a 1700-km-wide slab subducted beneath the evolving east Vardar-zone arc-complex. Pelagonia, the trailing edge of the subducting east-Vardar Ocean slab, crashed and underthrust the Vardar arc complex during the Paleocene time and ultimately crashed with Serbo-Macedonia. Since the late Early Jurassic time, the Hellenides have moved about 3000 km toward the northeast while the Atlantic Ocean spread.

希腊群岛下方地幔的地震层析成像表明,瓦尔达尔洋的综合宽度可能超过 3000 公里。根据地表地质学,我们知道这个大洋最初位于两个被动边缘之间:西边是佩拉戈尼亚-阿德里亚,东边是塞尔维亚-马其顿-欧亚大陆。在晚三叠世至早白垩世期间,伯拉戈尼亚被碳酸盐平台覆盖,碳酸盐沉积环境高度多样化,并与相邻的、交汇的瓦尔达尔洋板块发生反应。我们认为,在瓦尔达尔洋的东侧,白垩纪碳酸盐平台是在瓦尔达尔超大俯冲火山弧复合体的前弧盆地中从始新世到马斯特里赫特世演化而来的。瓦尔达尔洋的闭合经历了一次蛇绿混杂岩俯冲和两次洋内俯冲。1.在中侏罗世时期,一块长达 1200 千米的瓦尔达尔西部岩石圈板块俯冲到超俯冲火山弧 "Eohellenic "之下,而在卡洛维期和瓦朗基尼期之间,一块宽达 200 千米的板块俯冲到佩拉哥尼亚。2.2. 在晚侏罗世至白垩纪时期,一块 1700 千米宽的板块俯冲到不断演化的东瓦尔达尔区弧复合体下方。在古新世时期,俯冲的东瓦尔达尔洋板块的后缘--佩拉哥尼亚撞击并下推瓦尔达尔弧群,最终与塞尔维亚-马其顿撞击在一起。自早侏罗世晚期以来,希腊群岛向东北方向移动了约 3000 公里,同时大西洋也在扩张。
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引用次数: 0
The impact and effectiveness of the general public wearing masks to reduce the spread of pandemics in the UK: a multidisciplinary comparison of single-use masks versus reusable face masks. 在英国,公众佩戴口罩对减少流行病传播的影响和效果:一次性口罩与可重复使用口罩的多学科比较。
Pub Date : 2021-08-25 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000022
Ayşe Lisa Allison, Esther Ambrose-Dempster, Maria Bawn, Miguel Casas Arredondo, Charnett Chau, Kimberley Chandler, Dragana Dobrijevic, Teresa Domenech Aparasi, Helen C Hailes, Paola Lettieri, Chao Liu, Francesca Medda, Susan Michie, Mark Miodownik, Beth Munro, Danielle Purkiss, John M Ward

During the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the UK government mandated the use of face masks in various public settings and recommended the use of reusable masks to combat shortages of medically graded single-use masks in healthcare. To assist decision-making on the choice of masks for future pandemics, where shortages may not be a contributing factor, the University College London (UCL) Plastic Waste Innovation Hub has carried out a multidisciplinary comparison between single-use and reusable masks based on their anatomy, standalone effectiveness, behavioural considerations, environmental impact and costs. Although current single-use masks have a higher standalone effectiveness against bacteria and viruses, studies show that reusable masks have adequate performance in slowing infection rates of respiratory viruses. Material flow analysis (MFA), life cycle assessment (LCA) and cost comparison show that reusable masks have a lower environmental and economic impact than single-use masks. If every person in the UK uses one single-use mask each day for a year, it will create a total of 124,000 tonnes of waste, 66,000 tonnes of which would be unrecyclable contaminated plastic waste (the masks), with the rest being the recyclable packaging typically used for transportation and distribution of masks. Using reusable masks creates >85% less waste, generates 3.5 times lower impact on climate change and incurs 3.7 times lower costs. Further behavioural research is necessary to understand the extent and current practices of mask use; and how these practices affect mask effectiveness in reducing infection rates. Wearing single-use masks may be preferred over reusable masks due to perceptions of increased hygiene and convenience. Understanding behaviour towards the regular machine-washing of reusable masks for their effective reuse is key to maximise their public health benefits and minimise environmental and economic costs.

在冠状病毒(COVID-19)大流行期间,英国政府强制要求在各种公共场合使用口罩,并建议使用可重复使用的口罩,以应对医疗保健领域医疗级一次性口罩短缺的问题。在未来的大流行中,口罩短缺可能不是一个因素,为了帮助决策层选择口罩,伦敦大学学院(UCL)塑料废弃物创新中心对一次性口罩和可重复使用口罩进行了多学科比较,比较的依据是它们的解剖结构、独立效果、行为考虑、环境影响和成本。尽管目前的一次性口罩对细菌和病毒的独立功效较高,但研究表明,可重复使用的口罩在减缓呼吸道病毒感染率方面有足够的表现。材料流动分析(MFA)、生命周期评估(LCA)和成本比较表明,可重复使用口罩对环境和经济的影响低于一次性口罩。如果英国每人每天使用一个一次性口罩,持续一年,那么总共会产生 124,000 吨废物,其中 66,000 吨是不可回收的污染塑料废物(口罩),其余的是通常用于运输和分发口罩的可回收包装。使用可重复使用的口罩可减少 85% 以上的废物,对气候变化的影响降低 3.5 倍,成本降低 3.7 倍。有必要开展进一步的行为研究,以了解口罩使用的程度和当前的做法;以及这些做法如何影响口罩在降低感染率方面的效果。与可重复使用的口罩相比,佩戴一次性口罩可能更受青睐,因为人们认为一次性口罩更卫生、更方便。了解定期用机器清洗可重复使用的口罩以便有效重复使用的行为,是最大限度地提高口罩的公共卫生效益并最大限度地降低环境和经济成本的关键。
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引用次数: 0
Application of transparent microperforated panels to acrylic partitions for desktop use: A case study by prototyping. 将透明微穿孔板应用于桌面丙烯酸隔板:原型设计案例研究。
Pub Date : 2021-07-10 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000021
Kimihiro Sakagami, Midori Kusaka, Takeshi Okuzono, Shigeyuki Kido, Daichi Yamaguchi

There are various measures currently in place to prevent the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19); however, in some cases, these can have an adverse effect on the acoustic environment in buildings. For example, transparent acrylic partitions are often used in eating establishments, meeting rooms, offices, etc., to prevent droplet infection. However, acrylic partitions are acoustically reflective; therefore, reflected sounds may cause acoustic problems such as difficulties in conversation or the leakage of conversation. In this study, we performed a prototyping of transparent acrylic partitions to which a microperforated panel (MPP) was applied for sound absorption while maintaining transparency. The proposed partition is a triple-leaf acrylic partition with a single acrylic sheet without holes between two MPP sheets, as including a hole-free panel is important to prevent possible droplet penetration. The sound absorption characteristics were investigated by measuring the sound absorption in a reverberation room. As the original prototype showed sound absorption characteristics with a gentle peak and low values due to the openings on the periphery, it was modified by closing the openings on the top and sides. The sound absorption performance was improved to some extent when the top and sides were closed, although there remains the possibility of further improvement. For this study, only the sound absorption characteristics were examined in the prototype experiments. The effects during actual use will be the subject of future study.

目前有各种措施来防止冠状病毒(COVID-19)的传播;但在某些情况下,这些措施会对建筑物内的声学环境产生不利影响。例如,餐饮场所、会议室、办公室等通常使用透明的丙烯酸隔板来防止飞沫传染。然而,丙烯酸隔板具有声反射性,因此反射声可能会造成声学问题,如谈话困难或谈话泄漏。在这项研究中,我们制作了透明亚克力隔断的原型,并在其上应用了微穿孔板(MPP),以在保持透明度的同时实现吸音效果。拟议的隔板是三叶丙烯酸隔板,两块 MPP 板之间是一块无孔丙烯酸板,因为无孔板对于防止水滴渗入非常重要。通过测量混响室的吸声效果,对吸声特性进行了研究。由于外围有开口,原型的吸声特性显示出峰值平缓、数值较低的特点,因此对其进行了改进,关闭了顶部和侧面的开口。关闭顶部和两侧开口后,吸声性能得到了一定程度的改善,但仍有进一步改进的可能。在本研究中,原型实验只考察了吸音特性。实际使用时的效果将是今后研究的主题。
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引用次数: 0
An engineering model of the COVID-19 trajectory to predict the success of isolation initiatives. COVID-19 轨迹工程模型,用于预测隔离举措的成功与否。
Pub Date : 2021-06-30 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000020
Steven King, Alberto Striolo
<p><p>Much media and societal attention is today focused on how to best control the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19). Every day brings us new data, and policy makers are implementing different strategies in different countries to manage the impact of COVID-19. To respond to the first 'wave' of infection, several countries, including the UK, opted for isolation/lockdown initiatives, with different degrees of rigour. Data showed that these initiatives have yielded the expected results in terms of containing the rapid trajectory of the virus. When this article was first prepared (April 2020), the affected societies were wondering when the isolation/lockdown initiatives should be lifted. While detailed epidemiological, economic as well as social studies would be required to answer this question completely, here we employ a simple engineering model. Albeit simple, the model is capable of reproducing the main features of the data reported in the literature concerning the COVID-19 trajectory in different countries, including the increase in cases in countries following the initially successful isolation/lockdown initiatives. Keeping in mind the simplicity of the model, we attempt to draw some conclusions, which seem to suggest that a decrease in the number of infected individuals after the initiation of isolation/lockdown initiatives does not necessarily guarantee that the virus trajectory is under control. Within the limit of this model, it would seem that rigid isolation/lockdown initiatives for the medium term would lead to achieving the desired control over the spread of the virus. This observation seems consistent with the 2020 summer months, during which the COVID-19 trajectory seemed to be almost under control across most European countries. Consistent with the results from our simple model, winter 2020 data show that the virus trajectory was again on the rise. Because the optimal solution will achieve control over the spread of the virus while minimising negative societal impacts due to isolation/lockdown, which include but are not limited to economic and mental health aspects, the engineering model presented here is not sufficient to provide the desired answer. However, the model seems to suggest that to keep the COVID-19 trajectory under control, a series of short-to-medium term isolation measures should be put in place until one or more of the following scenarios is achieved: a cure has been developed and has become accessible to the population at large; a vaccine has been developed, tested and distributed to large portions of the population; a sufficiently large portion of the population has developed resistance to the COVID-19 virus; or the virus itself has become less aggressive. It is somewhat remarkable that an engineering model, despite all its approximations, provides suggestions consistent with advanced epidemiological models developed by several experts in the field. The model proposed here is however not expected to be able to captu
如今,许多媒体和社会关注的焦点是如何最好地控制冠状病毒(COVID-19)的传播。每天都有新的数据,不同国家的政策制定者正在实施不同的策略来控制 COVID-19 的影响。为了应对第一 "波 "感染,包括英国在内的一些国家选择了不同程度的隔离/封锁措施。数据显示,这些举措在遏制病毒快速传播方面取得了预期效果。在本文撰写之初(2020 年 4 月),受影响的社会正在考虑何时取消隔离/封锁措施。要彻底回答这个问题,需要进行详细的流行病学、经济和社会研究,在此我们采用一个简单的工程模型。该模型虽然简单,但却能再现文献中报道的不同国家 COVID-19 发展轨迹数据的主要特征,包括隔离/封锁措施取得初步成功后各国病例的增加。考虑到模型的简易性,我们试图得出一些结论,这些结论似乎表明,隔离/封锁措施启动后受感染人数的减少并不一定能保证病毒轨迹得到控制。在这一模型的限制范围内,在中期内采取严格的隔离/封锁措施似乎可以达到预期的控制病毒传播的目的。这一观察结果似乎与 2020 年夏季的情况一致,在这几个月中,COVID-19 在大多数欧洲国家的传播轨迹似乎几乎得到了控制。与我们的简单模型得出的结果一致,2020 年冬季的数据显示病毒的传播轨迹再次上升。由于最佳解决方案既要控制病毒传播,又要尽量减少隔离/封锁对社会造成的负面影响(包括但不限于经济和心理健康方面),因此本文介绍的工程模型不足以提供理想的答案。不过,该模型似乎建议,为了控制 COVID-19 的发展轨迹,应采取一系列中短期隔离措施,直到出现以下一种或多种情况:已开发出治愈方法,并可供广大人群使用;已开发出疫苗,并对其进行了测试和向大部分人群分发;有足够多的人群对 COVID-19 病毒产生了抵抗力;或病毒本身的攻击性有所降低。一个工程模型尽管是近似的,但它提供的建议却与该领域多位专家开发的先进流行病学模型相一致,这在某种程度上是很了不起的。然而,这里提出的模型预计无法捕捉到病毒变种的出现,而这些变种似乎是造成重大疫情爆发的原因,特别是在 2021 年春季的印度。该模型无法描述疫苗策略的有效性,因为它没有区分人群中的不同年龄组,也不允许我们考虑感染或接种疫苗后所获得的免疫力的持续时间。
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