Social and moral norms are a fabric for holding human societies together and helping them to function. As such they will also become a means of evaluating the performance of future human–machine systems. While machine ethics has offered various approaches to endowing machines with normative competence, from the more logic-based to the more data-based, none of the proposals so far have considered the challenge of capturing the “spirit of a norm,” which often eludes rigid interpretation and complicates doing the right thing. We present some paradigmatic scenarios across contexts to illustrate why the spirit of a norm can be critical to make explicit and why it exposes the inadequacies of mere data-driven “value alignment” techniques such as reinforcement learning RL for interactive, real-time human–robot interaction. Instead, we argue that norm learning, in particular, learning to capture the spirit of a norm, requires combining common-sense inference-based and data-driven approaches.
{"title":"Understanding the spirit of a norm: Challenges for norm-learning agents","authors":"Thomas Arnold, Matthias Scheutz","doi":"10.1002/aaai.12138","DOIUrl":"10.1002/aaai.12138","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Social and moral norms are a fabric for holding human societies together and helping them to function. As such they will also become a means of evaluating the performance of future human–machine systems. While machine ethics has offered various approaches to endowing machines with normative competence, from the more logic-based to the more data-based, none of the proposals so far have considered the challenge of capturing the “spirit of a norm,” which often eludes rigid interpretation and complicates doing the right thing. We present some paradigmatic scenarios across contexts to illustrate why the spirit of a norm can be critical to make explicit and why it exposes the inadequacies of mere data-driven “value alignment” techniques such as reinforcement learning <i>RL</i> for interactive, real-time human–robot interaction. Instead, we argue that norm learning, in particular, learning to capture the spirit of a norm, requires combining common-sense inference-based and data-driven approaches.</p>","PeriodicalId":7854,"journal":{"name":"Ai Magazine","volume":"44 4","pages":"524-536"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/aaai.12138","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135928142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Machine Learning systems rely heavily on annotated instances. Such annotations are frequently done by human experts, or by tools developed by experts, and so the central message of this book, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment (Kahneman, Sibony, and Sunstein 2021) is of considerable importance to AI/Machine Learning community. The core message is that if a number of experts are asked to annotate tasks that involve judgments, these responses will frequently differ. This observation poses a problem for how analysts choose a particular annotated dataset (from the group), or process the set of responses to give a “balanced” response, or whether to reject all the annotated datasets. A further important aspect of this book is the case studies which demonstrate that differences in judgments between fellow experts have been reported in a significant number of disciplines including, business, the law, government, and medicine. Kahneman, Sibony and Sunstein (2021), referred to as KSS subsequently, discuss how Expert Biases can be reduced, but the main focus of this book is a discussion of Noise, that is, differences that often occur between fellow experts, and how Noise can often be reduced. To address the last point KSS have formulated a set of six decision hygiene principles which include the recommendation that complex tasks should be subdivided, and then each subtask should be solved separately. A further principle is that each task should be solved by individual experts before the various judgments are discussed with fellow experts. Effectively, the book being reviewed covers three main topics: First, it reports several motivating studies that show how judgments of fellow experts varied significantly in the pricing of insurance premiums, and in setting the lengths of custodial sentences. These motivating studies very effectively illustrate the central concepts of Judgment, Noise, and Bias; that section also provides definitions of these core concepts and discusses how Noise is often amplified in group meetings. Secondly, the authors provide detailed discussion of further studies, in a variety of domains, which report the levels of disagreement between experts. Thirdly, KSS discusses how to reduce the levels of Noise between experts, as noted above, the authors refer to these as Principles of Noise Hygiene. These three parts are interwoven in a complex way throughout the book; in our view, the best overview of the book is given in the section Review and Conclusions: Taking Noise Seriously (KSS, p. 361).
{"title":"Groups of experts often differ in their decisions: What are the implications for AI and machine learning? A commentary on Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, by Kahneman, Sibony, and Sunstein (2021)","authors":"Derek H. Sleeman, Ken Gilhooly","doi":"10.1002/aaai.12135","DOIUrl":"10.1002/aaai.12135","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Machine Learning systems rely heavily on annotated instances. Such annotations are frequently done by human experts, or by tools developed by experts, and so the central message of this book, <i>Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment</i> (Kahneman, Sibony, and Sunstein 2021) is of considerable importance to AI/Machine Learning community. The core message is that if a number of experts are asked to annotate tasks that involve judgments, these responses will frequently differ. This observation poses a problem for how analysts choose a particular annotated dataset (from the group), or process the set of responses to give a “balanced” response, or whether to reject all the annotated datasets. A further important aspect of this book is the case studies which demonstrate that differences in judgments between fellow experts have been reported in a significant number of disciplines including, business, the law, government, and medicine. Kahneman, Sibony and Sunstein (2021), referred to as KSS subsequently, discuss how Expert Biases can be reduced, but the main focus of this book is a discussion of Noise, that is, differences that often occur between fellow experts, and how Noise can often be reduced. To address the last point KSS have formulated a set of six decision hygiene principles which include the recommendation that complex tasks should be subdivided, and then each subtask should be solved separately. A further principle is that each task should be solved by individual experts before the various judgments are discussed with fellow experts. Effectively, the book being reviewed covers three main topics: First, it reports several motivating studies that show how judgments of fellow experts varied significantly in the pricing of insurance premiums, and in setting the lengths of custodial sentences. These motivating studies very effectively illustrate the central concepts of Judgment, Noise, and Bias; that section also provides definitions of these core concepts and discusses how Noise is often amplified in group meetings. Secondly, the authors provide detailed discussion of further studies, in a variety of domains, which report the levels of disagreement between experts. Thirdly, KSS discusses how to reduce the levels of Noise between experts, as noted above, the authors refer to these as Principles of Noise Hygiene. These three parts are interwoven in a complex way throughout the book; in our view, the best overview of the book is given in the section Review and Conclusions: Taking Noise Seriously (KSS, p. 361).</p>","PeriodicalId":7854,"journal":{"name":"Ai Magazine","volume":"44 4","pages":"555-567"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/aaai.12135","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136376496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper, which is part of the New Faculty Highlights Invited Speaker Program of AAAI'23, serves as a comprehensive survey of my research in transfer learning by utilizing embedding spaces. The work reviewed in this paper specifically revolves around the inherent challenges associated with continual learning and limited availability of labeled data. By providing an overview of my past and ongoing contributions, this paper aims to present a holistic understanding of my research, paving the way for future explorations and advancements in the field. My research delves into the various settings of transfer learning, including, few-shot learning, zero-shot learning, continual learning, domain adaptation, and distributed learning. I hope this survey provides a forward-looking perspective for researchers who would like to focus on similar research directions.
{"title":"Robust internal representations for domain generalization","authors":"Mohammad Rostami","doi":"10.1002/aaai.12137","DOIUrl":"10.1002/aaai.12137","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper, which is part of the New Faculty Highlights Invited Speaker Program of AAAI'23, serves as a comprehensive survey of my research in transfer learning by utilizing embedding spaces. The work reviewed in this paper specifically revolves around the inherent challenges associated with continual learning and limited availability of labeled data. By providing an overview of my past and ongoing contributions, this paper aims to present a holistic understanding of my research, paving the way for future explorations and advancements in the field. My research delves into the various settings of transfer learning, including, few-shot learning, zero-shot learning, continual learning, domain adaptation, and distributed learning. I hope this survey provides a forward-looking perspective for researchers who would like to focus on similar research directions.</p>","PeriodicalId":7854,"journal":{"name":"Ai Magazine","volume":"44 4","pages":"467-481"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/aaai.12137","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134908326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mihye Kim, Jimyung Choi, Jaehyun Kim, Wooyoung Kim, Yeonung Baek, Gisuk Bang, Kwangwoon Son, Yeonman Ryou, Kee-Eung Kim
The residual value (RV) of a vehicle refers to its estimated worth at some point in the future. It is a core component in every auto finance product, used to determine the credit lines and the leasing rates. As such, an accurate prediction of RV is critical for the auto finance industry, since it can pose a risk of revenue loss by over-prediction or make the financial product incompetent through under-prediction. Although there are a number of prior studies on training machine learning models on a large amount of used car sales data, we had to cope with real-world operational requirements such as compliance with regulations (i.e., monotonicity of output with respect to a subset of features) and generalization to unseen input (i.e., new and rare car models). In this paper, we describe how we addressed these practical challenges and created value for our business at Hyundai Capital Services, the top auto financial service provider in Korea.
{"title":"Trustworthy residual vehicle value prediction for auto finance","authors":"Mihye Kim, Jimyung Choi, Jaehyun Kim, Wooyoung Kim, Yeonung Baek, Gisuk Bang, Kwangwoon Son, Yeonman Ryou, Kee-Eung Kim","doi":"10.1002/aaai.12136","DOIUrl":"10.1002/aaai.12136","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The residual value (RV) of a vehicle refers to its estimated worth at some point in the future. It is a core component in every auto finance product, used to determine the credit lines and the leasing rates. As such, an accurate prediction of RV is critical for the auto finance industry, since it can pose a risk of revenue loss by over-prediction or make the financial product incompetent through under-prediction. Although there are a number of prior studies on training machine learning models on a large amount of used car sales data, we had to cope with real-world operational requirements such as compliance with regulations (i.e., monotonicity of output with respect to a subset of features) and generalization to unseen input (i.e., new and rare car models). In this paper, we describe how we addressed these practical challenges and created value for our business at Hyundai Capital Services, the top auto financial service provider in Korea.</p>","PeriodicalId":7854,"journal":{"name":"Ai Magazine","volume":"44 4","pages":"394-405"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/aaai.12136","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135513286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The development of artificial intelligence (AI) agents capable of human-level understanding of video content and conducting conversations with humans on this basis is a promising application that people expect. However, this is a challenging task that requires the holistic integration of multimodal information with temporal dependencies and reasoning, as well as social and physical commonsense. In addition, the development of appropriate systematic evaluation methods is essential. In this context, we introduce the Video Turing Test (VTT), a blind test used to evaluate human-likeness in terms of video comprehension ability. Moreover, we propose Vincent as a video understanding AI. We explain the configuration of VTT, the architecture of Vincent to prepare for VTT and the proposed evaluation methods for video comprehension. We also estimate the current intelligence level of AI based on our results and discuss future research directions.
{"title":"Video Turing Test: A first step towards human-level AI","authors":"Minsu Lee, Yu-Jung Heo, Seongho Choi, Woo Suk Choi, Byoung-Tak Zhang","doi":"10.1002/aaai.12128","DOIUrl":"10.1002/aaai.12128","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The development of artificial intelligence (AI) agents capable of human-level understanding of video content and conducting conversations with humans on this basis is a promising application that people expect. However, this is a challenging task that requires the holistic integration of multimodal information with temporal dependencies and reasoning, as well as social and physical commonsense. In addition, the development of appropriate systematic evaluation methods is essential. In this context, we introduce the Video Turing Test (VTT), a blind test used to evaluate human-likeness in terms of video comprehension ability. Moreover, we propose Vincent as a video understanding AI. We explain the configuration of VTT, the architecture of Vincent to prepare for VTT and the proposed evaluation methods for video comprehension. We also estimate the current intelligence level of AI based on our results and discuss future research directions.</p>","PeriodicalId":7854,"journal":{"name":"Ai Magazine","volume":"44 4","pages":"537-554"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/aaai.12128","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136034011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hayden Gunraj, Paul Guerrier, Sheldon Fernandez, Alexander Wong
In electronics manufacturing, solder joint defects are a common problem affecting a variety of printed circuit board components. To identify and correct solder joint defects, the solder joints on a circuit board are typically inspected manually by trained human inspectors, which is a very time-consuming and error-prone process. To improve both inspection efficiency and accuracy, in this work, we describe an explainable deep learning-based visual quality inspection system tailored for visual inspection of solder joints in electronics manufacturing environments. At the core of this system is an explainable solder joint defect identification system called SolderNet that we design and implement with trust and transparency in mind. While several challenges remain before the full system can be developed and deployed, this study presents important progress towards trustworthy visual inspection of solder joints in electronics manufacturing.
{"title":"SolderNet: Towards trustworthy visual inspection of solder joints in electronics manufacturing using explainable artificial intelligence","authors":"Hayden Gunraj, Paul Guerrier, Sheldon Fernandez, Alexander Wong","doi":"10.1002/aaai.12129","DOIUrl":"10.1002/aaai.12129","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In electronics manufacturing, solder joint defects are a common problem affecting a variety of printed circuit board components. To identify and correct solder joint defects, the solder joints on a circuit board are typically inspected manually by trained human inspectors, which is a very time-consuming and error-prone process. To improve both inspection efficiency and accuracy, in this work, we describe an explainable deep learning-based visual quality inspection system tailored for visual inspection of solder joints in electronics manufacturing environments. At the core of this system is an explainable solder joint defect identification system called <b>SolderNet</b> that we design and implement with trust and transparency in mind. While several challenges remain before the full system can be developed and deployed, this study presents important progress towards trustworthy visual inspection of solder joints in electronics manufacturing.</p>","PeriodicalId":7854,"journal":{"name":"Ai Magazine","volume":"44 4","pages":"442-452"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/aaai.12129","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136185639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rabia Ali, Muhammad Sarmad, Jawad Tayyub, Alexander Vogel
Welding is a fabrication process used to join or fuse two mechanical parts. Modern welding machines have automated lasers that follow a predefined weld seam path between the two parts to create a bond. Previous efforts have used simple computer vision edge detectors to automatically detect the weld seam on an image at the junction of two metals to be welded. However, these systems lack reliability and accuracy resulting in manual human verification of the detected edges. This paper presents a neural network architecture that automatically detects the weld seam edge between two metals with high accuracy. We augment this system with a preclassifier that filters out anomalous workpieces (e.g., incorrect placement). Finally, we justify our design choices by evaluating against several existing deep network pipelines as well as proof through real-world use. We also describe in detail the process of deploying the system in a real-world shop floor including evaluation and monitoring. We make public a large well-labeled laser seam dataset to perform deep learning-based edge detection in industrial settings.
{"title":"Accurate detection of weld seams for laser welding in real-world manufacturing","authors":"Rabia Ali, Muhammad Sarmad, Jawad Tayyub, Alexander Vogel","doi":"10.1002/aaai.12134","DOIUrl":"10.1002/aaai.12134","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Welding is a fabrication process used to join or fuse two mechanical parts. Modern welding machines have automated lasers that follow a predefined weld seam path between the two parts to create a bond. Previous efforts have used simple computer vision edge detectors to automatically detect the weld seam on an image at the junction of two metals to be welded. However, these systems lack reliability and accuracy resulting in manual human verification of the detected edges. This paper presents a neural network architecture that automatically detects the weld seam edge between two metals with high accuracy. We augment this system with a preclassifier that filters out anomalous workpieces (e.g., incorrect placement). Finally, we justify our design choices by evaluating against several existing deep network pipelines as well as proof through real-world use. We also describe in detail the process of deploying the system in a real-world shop floor including evaluation and monitoring. We make public a large well-labeled laser seam dataset to perform deep learning-based edge detection in industrial settings.</p>","PeriodicalId":7854,"journal":{"name":"Ai Magazine","volume":"44 4","pages":"431-441"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/aaai.12134","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135856069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Underserved communities face critical health challenges due to lack of access to timely and reliable information. Nongovernmental organizations are leveraging the widespread use of cellphones to combat these healthcare challenges and spread preventative awareness. The health workers at these organizations reach out individually to beneficiaries; however, such programs still suffer from declining engagement. We have deployed Saheli, a system to efficiently utilize the limited availability of health workers for improving maternal and child health in India. Saheli uses the Restless Multi-armed Bandit (RMAB) framework to identify beneficiaries for outreach. It is the first deployed application for RMABs in public health, and is already in continuous use by our partner NGO, ARMMAN. We have already reached ∼130K beneficiaries with Saheli, and are on track to serve one million beneficiaries by the end of 2023. This scale and impact has been achieved through multiple innovations in the RMAB model and its development, in preparation of real world data, and in deployment practices; and through careful consideration of responsible AI practices. Specifically, in this paper, we describe our approach to learn from past data to improve the performance of Saheli's RMAB model, the real-world challenges faced during deployment and adoption of Saheli, and the end-to-end pipeline.
{"title":"Expanding impact of mobile health programs: SAHELI for maternal and child care","authors":"Shresth Verma, Gargi Singh, Aditya Mate, Paritosh Verma, Sruthi Gorantla, Neha Madhiwalla, Aparna Hegde, Divy Thakkar, Manish Jain, Milind Tambe, Aparna Taneja","doi":"10.1002/aaai.12126","DOIUrl":"10.1002/aaai.12126","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Underserved communities face critical health challenges due to lack of access to timely and reliable information. Nongovernmental organizations are leveraging the widespread use of cellphones to combat these healthcare challenges and spread preventative awareness. The health workers at these organizations reach out individually to beneficiaries; however, such programs still suffer from declining engagement. We have deployed <span>Saheli</span>, a system to efficiently utilize the limited availability of health workers for improving maternal and child health in India. <span>Saheli</span> uses the Restless Multi-armed Bandit (RMAB) framework to identify beneficiaries for outreach. It is the <i>first deployed application</i> for RMABs in public health, and is already <i>in continuous use</i> by our partner NGO, ARMMAN. We have already reached ∼130K beneficiaries with <span>Saheli</span>, and are on track to serve one million beneficiaries by the end of 2023. This scale and impact has been achieved through multiple innovations in the RMAB model and its development, in preparation of real world data, and in deployment practices; and through careful consideration of responsible AI practices. Specifically, in this paper, we describe our approach to learn from past data to improve the performance of <span>Saheli</span>'s RMAB model, the real-world challenges faced during deployment and adoption of <span>Saheli</span>, and the end-to-end pipeline.</p>","PeriodicalId":7854,"journal":{"name":"Ai Magazine","volume":"44 4","pages":"363-376"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/aaai.12126","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136013330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Energy forecasting is crucial in scheduling and planning future electric load, so as to improve the reliability and safeness of the power grid. Despite recent developments of forecasting algorithms in the machine learning community, there is a lack of general and advanced algorithms specifically considering requirements from the power industry perspective. In this paper, we present eForecaster, a unified AI platform including robust, flexible, and explainable machine learning algorithms for diversified energy forecasting applications. Since October 2021, multiple commercial bus load, system load, and renewable energy forecasting systems built upon eForecaster have been deployed in seven provinces of China. The deployed systems consistently reduce the average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 39.8% to 77.0%, with reduced manual work and explainable guidance. In particular, eForecaster also integrates multiple interpretation methods to uncover the working mechanism of the predictive models, which significantly improves forecasts adoption and user satisfaction.
{"title":"Energy forecasting with robust, flexible, and explainable machine learning algorithms","authors":"Zhaoyang Zhu, Weiqi Chen, Rui Xia, Tian Zhou, Peisong Niu, Bingqing Peng, Wenwei Wang, Hengbo Liu, Ziqing Ma, Xinyue Gu, Jin Wang, Qiming Chen, Linxiao Yang, Qingsong Wen, Liang Sun","doi":"10.1002/aaai.12130","DOIUrl":"10.1002/aaai.12130","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Energy forecasting is crucial in scheduling and planning future electric load, so as to improve the reliability and safeness of the power grid. Despite recent developments of forecasting algorithms in the machine learning community, there is a lack of general and advanced algorithms specifically considering requirements from the power industry perspective. In this paper, we present eForecaster, a unified AI platform including robust, flexible, and explainable machine learning algorithms for diversified energy forecasting applications. Since October 2021, multiple commercial bus load, system load, and renewable energy forecasting systems built upon eForecaster have been deployed in seven provinces of China. The deployed systems consistently reduce the average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 39.8% to 77.0%, with reduced manual work and explainable guidance. In particular, eForecaster also integrates multiple interpretation methods to uncover the working mechanism of the predictive models, which significantly improves forecasts adoption and user satisfaction.</p>","PeriodicalId":7854,"journal":{"name":"Ai Magazine","volume":"44 4","pages":"377-393"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/aaai.12130","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136212318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In many real-world applications of AI, the set of actors and tasks are not constant, but instead change over time. Robots tasked with suppressing wildfires eventually run out of limited suppressant resources and need to temporarily disengage from the collaborative work in order to recharge, or they might become damaged and leave the environment permanently. In a large business organization, objectives and goals change with the market, requiring workers to adapt to perform different sets of tasks across time. We call these multiagent systems (MAS) open agent systems (OASYS), and the openness of the sets of agents and tasks necessitates new capabilities and modeling for decision making compared to planning and learning in closed environments. In this article, we discuss three notions of openness: agent openness, task openness, and type openness. We also review the past and current research on addressing the novel challenges brought about by openness in OASYS. We share lessons learned from these efforts and suggest directions for promising future work in this area. We also encourage the community to engage and participate in this area of MAS research to address critical real-world problems in the application of AI to enhance our daily lives.
在人工智能的许多实际应用中,参与者和任务的集合并不是固定不变的,而是随着时间的推移而变化。负责扑灭野火的机器人最终会耗尽有限的灭火剂资源,需要暂时脱离协同工作以补充能量,否则它们可能会受损并永久离开环境。在大型企业组织中,目标和目的会随着市场的变化而变化,这就要求工人在不同的时间段适应执行不同的任务。我们称这些多代理系统(MAS)为开放代理系统(OASYS),与封闭环境中的规划和学习相比,代理和任务集的开放性要求决策制定具备新的能力和建模。在本文中,我们将讨论开放性的三个概念:代理开放性、任务开放性和类型开放性。我们还回顾了过去和当前为应对 OASYS 开放性带来的新挑战而开展的研究。我们分享了从这些工作中汲取的经验教训,并为该领域未来有前景的工作提出了方向性建议。我们还鼓励社会各界参与这一领域的 MAS 研究,以解决人工智能应用中的关键现实问题,从而改善我们的日常生活。
{"title":"Decision making in open agent systems","authors":"Adam Eck, Leen-Kiat Soh, Prashant Doshi","doi":"10.1002/aaai.12131","DOIUrl":"10.1002/aaai.12131","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In many real-world applications of AI, the set of actors and tasks are not constant, but instead change over time. Robots tasked with suppressing wildfires eventually run out of limited suppressant resources and need to temporarily disengage from the collaborative work in order to recharge, or they might become damaged and leave the environment permanently. In a large business organization, objectives and goals change with the market, requiring workers to adapt to perform different sets of tasks across time. We call these multiagent systems (MAS) <b>open agent systems</b> (OASYS), and the <i>openness</i> of the sets of agents and tasks necessitates new capabilities and modeling for decision making compared to planning and learning in <i>closed</i> environments. In this article, we discuss three notions of openness: agent openness, task openness, and type openness. We also review the past and current research on addressing the novel challenges brought about by openness in OASYS. We share lessons learned from these efforts and suggest directions for promising future work in this area. We also encourage the community to engage and participate in this area of MAS research to address critical real-world problems in the application of AI to enhance our daily lives.</p>","PeriodicalId":7854,"journal":{"name":"Ai Magazine","volume":"44 4","pages":"508-523"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/aaai.12131","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135146704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}