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Poisson approximation of point processes with stochastic intensity, and application to nonlinear Hawkes processes 随机强度点过程的泊松逼近及其在非线性Hawkes过程中的应用
IF 1.5 2区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2017-05-01 DOI: 10.1214/15-AIHP730
G. Torrisi
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引用次数: 12
Scaling limits of coalescent processes near time zero 时间零附近成结过程的尺度限制
IF 1.5 2区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2017-05-01 DOI: 10.1214/15-AIHP727
Batı Şengül
In this paper we obtain scaling limits of Λ-coalescents near time zero under a regularly varying assumption. In particular this covers the case of Kingman’s coalescent and beta coalescents. The limiting processes are coalescents with infinite mass, obtained geometrically as tangent cones of Evans metric space associated with the coalescent. In the case of Kingman’s coalescent we are able to obtain a simple construction of the limiting space using a two-sided Brownian motion.
本文在正则变假设下,得到了Λ-coalescents在时间零附近的标度极限。特别地,这涵盖了Kingman 's coalescence和beta coalescence的案例。极限过程是具有无限质量的聚结,其几何形式为与聚结相关的埃文斯度量空间的切锥。在金曼聚结的情况下,我们可以用一个双面布朗运动得到一个极限空间的简单构造。
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引用次数: 0
Geodesic PCA in the Wasserstein space by Convex PCA 基于凸主成分分析的Wasserstein空间测地线主成分分析
IF 1.5 2区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2017-02-01 DOI: 10.1214/15-AIHP706
Jérémie Bigot, R. Gouet, T. Klein, Alfredo López
We introduce the method of Geodesic Principal Component Analysis (GPCA) on the space of probability measures on the line, with finite second moment, endowed with the Wasserstein metric. We discuss the advantages of this approach, over a standard functional PCA of probability densities in the Hilbert space of square-integrable functions. We establish the consistency of the method by showing that the empirical GPCA converges to its population counterpart, as the sample size tends to infinity. A key property in the study of GPCA is the isometry between the Wasserstein space and a closed convex subset of the space of square-integrable functions, with respect to an appropriate measure. Therefore, we consider the general problem of PCA in a closed convex subset of a separable Hilbert space, which serves as basis for the analysis of GPCA and also has interest in its own right. We provide illustrative examples on simple statistical models, to show the benefits of this approach for data analysis. The method is also applied to a real dataset of population pyramids.
本文介绍了一种基于Wasserstein度量的有限秒矩线上概率测度空间的测地线主成分分析方法。我们讨论了这种方法的优点,与Hilbert空间中平方可积函数的概率密度的标准泛函PCA相比。我们通过证明经验GPCA收敛于其人口对应,当样本量趋于无穷大,建立了方法的一致性。研究GPCA的一个关键性质是Wasserstein空间与平方可积函数空间的闭凸子集在适当测度下的等距性。因此,我们在可分离Hilbert空间的闭凸子集中考虑PCA的一般问题,这是分析GPCA的基础,也是其本身的兴趣所在。我们提供了简单统计模型的说明性示例,以展示这种方法对数据分析的好处。该方法也适用于实际的人口金字塔数据集。
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引用次数: 104
A simpler proof for the dimension of the graph of the classical Weierstrass function 经典Weierstrass函数图维数的一个简单证明
IF 1.5 2区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2017-02-01 DOI: 10.1214/15-AIHP711
G. Keller
. Let W λ,b (x) = (cid:2) ∞ n = 0 λ n g(b n x) where b ≥ 2 is an integer and g(u) = cos ( 2 πu) (classical Weierstrass function). Building on work by Ledrappier (In Symbolic Dynamics and Its Applications (1992) 285–293), Bara´nski, Bárány and Romanowska ( Adv. Math. 265 (2014) 32–59) and Tsujii ( Nonlinearity 14 (2001) 1011–1027), we provide an elementary proof that the Hausdorff dimension of W λ,b equals 2 + log λ log b for all λ ∈ (λ b , 1 ) with a suitable λ b < 1. This reproduces results by Bara´nski, Bárány and Romanowska ( Adv. Math. 265 (2014) 32–59) without using the dimension theory for hyperbolic measures of Ledrappier and Young ( Ann. of Math. (2) 122 (1985) 540–574; Comm. Math. Phys. 117 (1988) 529–548), which is replaced by a simple telescoping argument together with a recursive multi-scale estimate. Résumé. (In Symbolic Dynamics and Its Applications (1992) 285–293), de Bara´nski, Bárány et Romanowska ( Adv. Math. 265 (2014) 32–59) et de Tsujii ( Nonlinearity 14 (2001) 1011–1027), nous présentons une démonstra-tion élémentaire du fait que la dimension de Hausdorff de W λ,b est égale à 2 + log λ log b pour tout λ ∈ (λ b , 1 ) avec λ b < 1 approprié. Cela reproduit des résultats de Bara´nski, Bárány et Romanowska ( Adv. Math. 265 (2014) 32–59) sans utiliser la théorie de dimension des mesures hyperboliques de Ledrappier et Young ( Ann. of Math. (2) 122 (1985) 540–574 ; Comm. Math. Phys. 117 (1988) 529–548), laquelle est remplacée par un argument téléscopique élémentaire conjointement avec une estimation récursive multi-échelle.
. 设W λ,b (x) = (cid:2)∞n = 0 λ n g(b n x),其中b≥2为整数,g(u) = cos (2 πu)(经典Weierstrass函数)。在Ledrappier (In Symbolic Dynamics and Its Applications(1992) 285-293)、Bara´nski, Bárány和Romanowska (Adv. Math. 265(2014) 32-59)和Tsujii (Nonlinearity 14(2001) 1011-1027)的工作基础上,我们提供了一个初等证明,证明对于所有λ∈(λ b, 1)且λ b < 1的情况下,W λ,b的Hausdorff维数等于2 + log λ log b。这再现了Bara´nski, Bárány和Romanowska (Adv. Math. 265(2014) 32-59)的结果,而没有使用Ledrappier和Young (Ann.)的双曲测量的维数理论。的数学。(2) 122 (1985) 540-574;通讯。数学。物理学报,117(1988)529-548),它被一个简单的伸缩论证和一个递归的多尺度估计所取代。的简历。(In Symbolic Dynamics and Its Applications (1992) 285-293), de Bara ' nski, Bárány et Romanowska (Adv. Math. 265 (2014) 32-59) et de Tsujii (Nonlinearity 14 (2001) 1011-1027), nous pracentsons one dsammonstrage du fait que la dimension de Hausdorff de W λ,b est + log λ log b pour tout λ∈(λ b, 1) avec λ b < 1)Cela redududes recametssulats de Bara ' nski, Bárány et Romanowska (Adv. Math. 265 (2014) 32-59), sans utiliser la thcametyde dimensionesdes measures hyperbolques de Ledrappier et Young (Ann。的数学。(2) 122 (1985) 540-574;通讯。数学。物理学报,117 (1988)529-548),laquelle est取代了same paran论点,即sami - sami - sami - sami - sami - sami - sami - sami - sami - sami。
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引用次数: 19
Strong existence and uniqueness for degenerate SDE with Hölder drift 具有Hölder漂移的简并SDE的强存在唯一性
IF 1.5 2区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2017-02-01 DOI: 10.1214/15-AIHP716
P. C. D. Raynal
. In this paper, we prove pathwise uniqueness for stochastic degenerate systems with a Hölder drift, for a Hölder exponent larger than the critical value 2 / 3. This work extends to the degenerate setting the earlier results obtained by Zvonkin ( Mat. Sb. (N.S.) 93(135) (1974) 129–149, 152), Veretennikov ( Mat. Sb. (N.S.) 111(153) (1980) 434–452, 480), Krylov and Röckner ( Probab. Theory Related Fields 131 (2) (2005) 154–196) from non-degenerate to degenerate cases. The existence of a threshold for the Hölder exponent in the degenerate case may be understood as the price to pay to balance the degeneracy of the noise. Our proof relies on regularization properties of the associated PDE, which is degenerate in the current framework and is based on a parametrix method. Résumé. ( L’apparition d’un seuil critique pour l’exposant peut-être vue comme le prix à payer pour la dégénérescence. La preuve repose sur des résultats de régularité de la solution de l’EDP associée, qui est dégénérée, et est basée sur une méthode parametrix.
. 在本文中,我们证明了具有Hölder漂移的随机退化系统,当Hölder指数大于临界值2 / 3时的路径唯一性。这项工作将Zvonkin (Mat. Sb. (N.S.) 93(135)(1974) 129 - 149,152)、Veretennikov (Mat. Sb. (N.S.) 111(153)(1980) 434 - 452,480)、Krylov和Röckner (Probab。理论相关领域131(2)(2005)154-196)从非简并到简并情况。在退化情况下,Hölder指数阈值的存在可以理解为平衡噪声的退化所付出的代价。我们的证明依赖于相关PDE的正则化性质,该PDE在当前框架中是退化的,并且基于参数矩阵方法。的简历。(L 'apparition用品seuil批判倒L 'exposant可能vue像价格付款人倒上拉degenerescence。根据不同的参数,根据不同的参数,根据不同的参数,根据不同的参数,根据不同的参数,根据不同的参数,根据不同的参数,确定不同的参数。
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引用次数: 30
On particle Gibbs samplers 关于粒子吉布斯采样器
IF 1.5 2区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.1214/15-AIHP695
P. Moral, R. Kohn, F. Patras
Cet article analyse une classe de methodes de Monte Carlo avancees de type particulaire introduites par Andrieu, Doucet, et Holenstein (J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol. 72 (2010) 1–269). Nous presentons une interpretation naturelle de ces methodes en termes de mesures de Feynman–Kac particulaires non biaisees classiques et d’une nouvelle formule de dualite entre modeles de Feynman–Kac. Ce cadre d’etude apporte un nouvel eclairage sur les fondations et l’analyse mathematique de ces methodes. Une consequence importante est l’equivalence de ces dernieres avec la methode d’echantillonnage de Gibbs d’une distribution de Feynman–Kac multi-corps. Notre etude developpe aussi un nouveau calcul differentiel stochastique fonde sur des techniques geometriques et combinatoires. Ces techniques permettent d’obtenir des developpements non asymptotiques des semigroupes de modeles de Monte Carlo par Chaines de Markov particulaires autour de leur mesure invariante, en fonction de la taille des systemes de particules en interaction auxiliaires. Cette analyse conduit a des estimations quantitatives precises de la convergence a l’equilibre de ces modeles par rapport a l’horizon temporel et la taille des systemes. Nous illustrons ces resultats avec quelques implications directes, notamment l’estimation precise des coefficients de contraction et des exposants de Lyapunov de ces algorithmes de simulation, ainsi que l’estimation fine de l’erreur en norme $mathbb{L}_{p}$ entre la loi des etats aleatoires de ces chaines de Markov et leur mesure d’equilibre. Le cadre abstrait de l’article permet d’elaborer et d’etendre de facon naturelle ces methodes a des classes d’algorithmes fondes sur des evolutions d’ilots particulaires (aussi connus sous le nom $mathrm{SMC}^{2}$). Nous montrons enfin comment ce cadre general et les resultats de l’article s’appliquent a l’etude de problemes de filtrage non lineaire, l’estimation de parametres fixes dans des modeles de chaines de Markov cachees, et dans des problemes d’integration trajectorielle rencontres en physique quantique et en chimie moleculaire.
本文分析了Andrieu、Doucet和Holenstein (J. R. Stat. Soc.)提出的一类先进的粒子型蒙特卡罗方法。爵士。B . Methodol. 72(2010) 1 - 269)。我们用经典无偏粒子费曼- Kac测量和费曼- Kac模型对偶性的新公式对这些方法进行了自然解释。本研究框架为这些方法的基础和数学分析提供了新的见解。一个重要的结果是后者与多体费曼- Kac分布的吉布斯抽样方法的等价性。我们的研究还发展了一种新的基于几何和组合技术的随机微分计算。这些技术允许粒子马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模型半群的非渐近发展,围绕它们的不变测量,作为辅助相互作用粒子系统大小的函数。这种分析导致了这些模型在时间范围和系统规模上的均衡收敛的精确定量估计。我们用这些结果与一些直接影响系数的估计,包括precision收缩和参展商的Lyapunov这些算法进行仿真,以及精细估计误差的标准以 $ $ _ mathbb L {} {} p各州的法律选择之间的这种平衡。的马尔科夫链及其测量本文的抽象框架允许这些方法以一种自然的方式发展和扩展到基于特定岛屿演化的算法类(也称为$mathrm{SMC}^{2}$)。最后,我们展示了这个总体框架和本文的结果如何应用于非线性滤波问题的研究,隐藏马尔可夫链模型中固定参数的估计,以及量子物理和分子化学中遇到的轨迹积分问题。
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引用次数: 9
Level-set percolation for the Gaussian free field on a transient tree 瞬态树上高斯自由场的水平集渗透
IF 1.5 2区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2016-06-08 DOI: 10.1214/16-AIHP799
Angelo Abacherli, A. Sznitman
We investigate level-set percolation of the Gaussian free field on transient trees, for instance on super-critical Galton-Watson trees conditioned on non-extinction. Recently developed Dynkin-type isomorphism theorems provide a comparison with percolation of the vacant set of random interlacements, which is more tractable in the case of trees. If $h_*$ and $u_*$ denote the respective (non-negative) critical values of level-set percolation of the Gaussian free field and of the vacant set of random interlacements, we show here that $h_* 0$.
我们研究了瞬态树上高斯自由场的水平集渗透,例如在非消光条件下的超临界高尔顿-沃森树上。最近发展的dynkin型同构定理提供了与随机交错空集渗透的比较,这在树的情况下更容易处理。如果$h_*$和$u_*$分别表示高斯自由场的水平集渗透和随机交错空集的水平集渗透的(非负)临界值,我们在这里表明$h_* 0$。
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引用次数: 20
Stein’s method for positively associated random variables with applications to the Ising and voter models, bond percolation, and contact process Stein的方法正关联随机变量与应用于伊辛和选民模型,键渗透和接触过程
IF 1.5 2区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2016-03-17 DOI: 10.1214/16-AIHP808
L. Goldstein, Nathakhun Wiroonsri
We provide non-asymptotic $L^1$ bounds to the normal for four well-known models in statistical physics and particle systems in $mathbb{Z}^d$; the ferromagnetic nearest-neighbor Ising model, the supercritical bond percolation model, the voter model and the contact process. In the Ising model, we obtain an $L^1$ distance bound between the total magnetization and the normal distribution at any temperature when the magnetic moment parameter is nonzero, and when the inverse temperature is below critical and the magnetic moment parameter is zero. In the percolation model we obtain such a bound for the total number of points in a finite region belonging to an infinite cluster in dimensions $d ge 2$, in the voter model for the occupation time of the origin in dimensions $d ge 7$, and for finite time integrals of non-constant increasing cylindrical functions evaluated on the one dimensional supercritical contact process started in its unique invariant distribution. The tool developed for these purposes is a version of Stein's method adapted to positively associated random variables. In one dimension, letting $boldsymbol{xi}=(xi_1,ldots,xi_m)$ be a positively associated mean zero random vector with components that obey the bound $|xi_i| le B, i=1,ldots,m$, and whose sum $W = sum_{i=1}^m xi_i$ has variance 1, it holds that $$ d_1 left(mathcal{L}(W),mathcal{L}(Z) right) leq 5B + sqrt{frac{8}{pi}}sum_{i neq j} mathbb{E}[xi_i xi_j] $$ where $Z$ has the standard normal distribution and $d_1(cdot,cdot)$ is the $L^1$ metric. Our methods apply in the multidimensional case with the $L^1$ metric replaced by a smooth function metric.
我们提供了非渐近的 $L^1$ 统计物理和粒子系统中四个著名模型的法向边界 $mathbb{Z}^d$;铁磁近邻Ising模型、超临界键渗流模型、选民模型和接触过程。在Ising模型中,我们得到 $L^1$ 在任意温度下,当磁矩参数不为零时,当逆温度低于临界温度且磁矩参数为零时,总磁化强度与正态分布之间的距离界。在渗流模型中,我们得到了在有限区域内属于无限维簇的点的总数的一个界 $d ge 2$,在选民模型中为原点占用时间的维度 $d ge 7$在一维超临界接触过程的唯一不变分布上求非常递增柱面函数的有限时间积分。为此目的开发的工具是Stein方法的一个版本,适用于正相关随机变量。在一个维度上,让 $boldsymbol{xi}=(xi_1,ldots,xi_m)$ 是一个正相关的平均零随机向量,其分量服从边界 $|xi_i| le B, i=1,ldots,m$,其和为 $W = sum_{i=1}^m xi_i$ 方差是1吗 $$ d_1 left(mathcal{L}(W),mathcal{L}(Z) right) leq 5B + sqrt{frac{8}{pi}}sum_{i neq j} mathbb{E}[xi_i xi_j] $$ 在哪里 $Z$ 标准正态分布和 $d_1(cdot,cdot)$ 是? $L^1$ 公制。我们的方法适用于多维情况 $L^1$ 用光滑函数度量代替度量。
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引用次数: 13
Stochastic orders and the frog model 随机顺序和青蛙模型
IF 1.5 2区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2016-02-14 DOI: 10.1214/17-AIHP830
Tobias Johnson, M. Junge
The frog model starts with one active particle at the root of a graph and some number of dormant particles at all nonroot vertices. Active particles follow independent random paths, waking all inactive particles they encounter. We prove that certain frog model statistics are monotone in the initial configuration for two nonstandard stochastic dominance relations: the increasing concave and the probability generating function orders. This extends many canonical theorems. We connect recurrence for random initial configurations to recurrence for deterministic configurations. Also, the limiting shape of activated sites on the integer lattice respects both of these orders. Other implications include monotonicity results on transience of the frog model where the number of frogs per vertex decays away from the origin, on survival of the frog model with death, and on the time to visit a given vertex in any frog model.
青蛙模型在图的根处有一个活动粒子,在所有非根顶点处有一些休眠粒子。活跃粒子遵循独立的随机路径,唤醒它们遇到的所有不活跃粒子。我们证明了两种非标准随机优势关系:增大凹和概率生成函数阶的青蛙模型统计量在初始构型上是单调的。这扩展了许多正则定理。我们将随机初始构型的递归性与确定性构型的递归性联系起来。此外,整数晶格上活化位点的极限形状同时符合这两种顺序。其他含义包括青蛙模型的瞬态性(每个顶点的青蛙数量从原点衰减)、青蛙模型的死亡存活以及任何青蛙模型中访问给定顶点的时间的单调性结果。
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引用次数: 29
Free probability for pairs of faces II: $2$-variables bi-free partial $R$-transform and systems with rank $le1$ commutation 面对的自由概率II: $2$-变量双自由偏$R$-变换和秩$le1$交换的系统
IF 1.5 2区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2016-02-01 DOI: 10.1214/14-AIHP623
D. Voiculescu
. We compute the generating series for the simplest class of bi-free cumulants, beyond the free cumulants, the two-bands bi-free cumulants of a pair of a left and a right variable. We also consider two-faced systems with a commutation condition implying that two-bands moments, that is expectation values of the product of a monomial of left and a monomial of right variables determine the other moments. Examples include hyponormal operators, dual systems in free entropy theory and bi-partite systems. Résumé. Pour une paire de variables, une gauche et une droite, nous calculons la série génératrice des plus simples cumulants bi-libres au-delà des cumulants libres. On considère aussi des systèmes à deux faces, satisfaisant une condition de commutation qui assure que les moments à deux bandes, c’est-à-dire les espérances des produits d’un monôme de variables gauches et d’un monôme de variables droites, déterminent tous les autres moments non-commutatifs. Les opérateurs hyponormaux, les systèmes duaux de la théorie de l’entropie libre, ainsi que les systèmes bipartites, fournissent des exemples.
. We在线使用发电series for the纪念class of bi-free cumulants、beyond the free cumulants the two-bands bi-free cumulants可变of a pair of a left and right。We also联同two-faced systems with a开关implying that two-bands时光,只要瞧广州改良of the products of a monomial of a left and monomial of right ?变量确定the other时光。实例包括二元hyponormal运营商,free entropy systems in theory and bi-partite systems。摘要。对于一对变量,一个左,一个右,我们计算生成最简单的双自由累积数超过自由累积数的级数。我们还考虑了满足切换条件的双面系统,该条件保证了双波段力矩,即单个左变量和单个右变量的乘积的期望,决定了所有其他非切换力矩。例子包括下正则算子、自由熵理论的对偶系统和二部系统。
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引用次数: 33
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Annales De L Institut Henri Poincare-probabilites Et Statistiques
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