Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy最新文献

This study examines the official announcement effect of the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) and the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) on the corn and soybean futures market. Using a permutation test and a 2-stage GLS model, we find no significant official announcement effect. However, pre-official announcements significantly increase futures contracts' full-trading day volatility—by 0.945% (4 cents) for corn and 1.301% (16 cents) for soybeans. These findings suggest that information may have been absorbed by the market prior to the official announcements, indicating market efficiency. Moreover, the results highlight that pre-official announcements successfully serve as signals to boost market participants' confidence in the short term following a negative market shock.

Current science indicates that warming and elevated atmospheric CO₂ will have ambiguous results for crop productivity depending on crop type and geographic location, whereas increased heat stress makes livestock and human labor less productive. The differential impacts across regions will alter comparative advantage and shift the patterns of global trade. This paper employs an economywide trade model to assess all three types of productivity shocks under a 3°C global warming scenario. We find that the widening agricultural trade deficits persist, even as the overall US trade balance improves due to enhanced investment inflows.

This paper underscores the critical role of multisectoral convergence in enhancing child health, particularly in addressing anemia, a micronutrient deficiency linked to both diet and sanitation. We explore how the integration of nationwide food and nutrition programs with sanitation initiatives impacts anemia in Indian children under three. Our findings reveal that children benefiting from both interventions had significantly higher hemoglobin levels (by 0.08 g/dL or more) than those without. Such a policy convergence is key to reducing anemia and advancing the Sustainable Development Goals for improved nutrition and sanitation. We estimate that it could potentially transition 2130–6711 children out of anemia. Our results are consistent across wealth and place of residence, and robust to changes in model specifications.

Compliance with health safety protocols is important for protecting public health, particularly in agricultural sectors where disease outbreaks can disrupt production and market access. Despite its economic significance, we know little about what drives protocol compliance. We examine the relationship between individuals' objective and self-assessed knowledge and their compliance with safety measures in the context of COVID-19. We find that greater opposition to COVID-19 safety protocols is associated with lower objective knowledge and inflated self-assessed knowledge, indicating overconfidence. Addressing cognitive biases could make public health interventions more effective, with important implications for agricultural settings where resilience depends on consistent protocol adherence.

Non-tariff measures (NTMs) play a growing role in trade policy. Economists quantify NTMs by calculating their Ad Valorem Equivalents (AVE), typically employing one of two global NTM datasets: TRAINS from UNCTAD or WTO notifications. While TRAINS data better measure NTMs, their limited coverage over countries and time is inadequate for many types of analyses, and thus researchers often resort to using WTO data, which is not as accurate as the TRAINS but has better coverage. We compare the two datasets to assess whether AVEs from WTO notifications align with those from TRAINS, given similar country and time coverage. We find significant AVE discrepancies between datasets, sometimes reversing signs, warranting caution when using WTO notifications in the absence of TRAINS data to construct NTMs.

Nguyen, L. D., T. T. Nguyen, T. T. Nguyen, and U. Grote. 2025. “Health Shock and Indebtedness: Does Having Access to Health Insurance Reduce the Reliance on Borrowing as a Shock Coping Strategy?” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 47, no. 2: 823–862. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13495.

The funding statement for this article was missing. The following funding statement has been added to the article: Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.

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The Colorado River is a lifeline for more than 40 million people in the western United States. However, with climate change diminishing snowpacks in the Rocky Mountains and increasing demands from agriculture and urban areas, the river's flow has become insufficient to meet all the competing needs. A wide range of policies and programs are being proposed and considered to reduce the use of river water. Most of these policies compensate water users who engage in water-saving practices. Agriculture, which consumes over 85% of the river's water, is a primary target of these conservation policies. In this paper, we use operation-level data to estimate producers' revealed preferences regarding crop choices and irrigated acreage. We then use these estimated preferences to investigate the cost of reducing water use in irrigated agriculture across the basin states. We find a total abatement cost of $275 million for reducing the first million acre-feet of water. Our results also indicate significant regional differences in the cost of abating irrigation water use between the Upper and Lower Basins, with the Lower Basin states exhibiting lower marginal abatement costs compared to the Upper Basin. These findings could guide the design of future policies and programs aimed at reducing water use in the Colorado River Basin, particularly as current guidelines for the river's water management are due to expire in 2026.

Agricultural producers often borrow from multiple lenders, raising concerns about credit risk and monitoring. We construct detailed farm-level measures of how debt is distributed across lenders and examine how farm financial status and the physical presence of local lenders are linked to this practice. Using nearly two decades of farm financial records from Kansas, we find that larger, more leveraged, and more profitable farms are more likely to engage in multiple borrowing. Proximity to Farm Credit locations is unrelated to multiple borrowing, while more banks are linked to less, underscoring the importance of maintaining relationship lending for banks.