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AHP based on scenarios and the optimism coefficient for new and risky projects: case of independent criteria 基于情景和乐观系数的新项目和风险项目 AHP:独立标准案例
IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06197-w
Helena Gaspars-Wieloch

AHP is a well-known multi-criteria procedure which has been investigated and developed by many researchers and practitioners. Some AHP modifications are designed for decision making under uncertainty. The goal of this paper is to present a new AHP approach which can be useful in the case of uncertain one-shot decisions and independent criteria. The method proposed in the article is based on scenario planning, features characteristic for the Hurwicz rule (i.e. the use of the optimism coefficient) and on a scenario set reduction. The novel procedure gives the possibility to generate a relatively small number of pairwise comparison matrices thanks to the reduction of the initial sets of scenarios. The modified version of AHP may be helpful when the decision maker’s knowledge about probabilities of the occurrence of particular scenarios is partial. Such a situation occurs in the case of innovative, innovation and risky projects for which historical data are not known. The idea of the suggested scenario-based AHP is to adjust the final choice not only to the decision makers’ preferences (concerning criteria for example), but also to their nature, attitude towards risk, predictions, expectations and fears.

AHP 是一种著名的多标准程序,许多研究人员和从业人员都对其进行过研究和开发。一些 AHP 修正程序是为不确定情况下的决策制定而设计的。本文的目的是提出一种新的 AHP 方法,这种方法可用于不确定的一次性决策和独立标准的情况。文章中提出的方法基于情景规划、Hurwicz 规则的特征(即使用乐观系数)和情景集缩减。由于减少了初始方案集,新程序可以生成相对较少的成对比较矩阵。当决策者对特定情景发生概率的了解是片面的时候,修正版 AHP 可能会有所帮助。这种情况发生在创新、革新和风险项目中,因为这些项目的历史数据并不为人所知。所建议的基于情景的 AHP 的理念是,不仅要根据决策者的偏好(例如有关标准的偏好),还要根据他们的性质、对风险的态度、预测、期望和恐惧来调整最终选择。
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引用次数: 0
Reliability and statistical computing 可靠性和统计计算
IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06212-0
Hoang Pham
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引用次数: 0
In a memory of the late Harry Markowitz 悼念已故哈里-马科维茨
IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06188-x
Haim Levy

I have learned from him a lot how to conduct research, but more important, I hope, how to be a better human being.

我从他身上学到了很多如何开展研究的知识,但更重要的是,我希望,我从他身上学到了如何成为一个更好的人。
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引用次数: 0
Multi-source ensemble method with random source selection for virtual metrology 用于虚拟计量的随机源选择多源集合方法
IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-17 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06179-y
Gejia Zhang, Tianhui Wang, Jaeseung Baek, Myong-Kee Jeong, Seongho Seo, Jaekyung Choi

In the era of Industry 4.0, the complexity of semiconductor production is growing very fast, raising the possibility of unnoticed defective wafers and subsequent wasteful use of resources. One of the key advantages of Industry 4.0 is the accessibility to big data, which can be obtained from a number of sensors, including multiple sensor data and extensive data repositories. Recently, engineers have developed data fusion strategies for virtual metrology (VM) prediction models to effectively handle data from multiple sources. This research explores a novel approach for data-driven VM prediction model for multi-source data, namely multi-source ensemble method with random source selection. By utilizing the bagging principle for multi-source data and tree-based prediction paradigms, the proposed approach randomly selects subsets of data sources to construct each tree learner, thus reducing interdependence among the trees and minimizing the risk of overfitting, which can be a challenge faced by existing tree-based prediction models. To validate and illustrate the practical applicability of our proposed method, we use real-world data from the plasma etching process, aiming to provide potential benefits and effectiveness of our methodology.

在工业 4.0 时代,半导体生产的复杂性正在飞速增长,这就有可能出现无法察觉的缺陷晶圆,进而造成资源浪费。工业 4.0 的主要优势之一是可以获取大数据,这些数据可以从许多传感器获得,包括多种传感器数据和广泛的数据存储库。最近,工程师们为虚拟计量(VM)预测模型开发了数据融合策略,以有效处理来自多个来源的数据。本研究探索了一种针对多源数据的数据驱动虚拟计量预测模型的新方法,即具有随机源选择的多源集合方法。通过利用多源数据的袋集原理和基于树的预测范式,所提出的方法随机选择数据源子集来构建每个树学习器,从而减少了树之间的相互依赖,最大限度地降低了过拟合的风险,而这正是现有的基于树的预测模型所面临的挑战。为了验证和说明我们提出的方法的实际应用性,我们使用了等离子蚀刻过程中的实际数据,旨在提供我们方法的潜在优势和有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Green technology opening, imitation, and investment: firms’ strategic technology choices in competitive markets 绿色技术开放、模仿与投资:竞争市场中企业的战略技术选择
IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06201-3
Shaofu Du, Chenyang Gou, Wenzhi Tang

Green firms are considering whether to open or close their new green technologies. Opening up green technology can induce imitation and transformation in traditional firms but intensify competition in the green product market. Meanwhile, green technology imitation leads to the market share transfer effect, which is a supply-side network externality that gains consumer trust and increases the market share of green products as more firms adopt the technology. However, traditional firms also face a dilemma in green technology imitation choices due to the market cannibalization problem. This study constructs a game-theoretic model with one green firm possessing proprietary green technology and one traditional firm to investigate firms’ strategic interactions among green technology opening, imitation, and investment. We find that the technology opening strategy may constitute equilibrium if the market transfer share or the market size of green products is relatively large. Accordingly, the traditional firm produces green products by imitation when the green firm opens its technology. In addition, the technology opening strategy improves social welfare compared with the technology closing strategy, thus forming a win-win situation. We further extend the analysis by considering the technology licensing contract model, consumer-side network effects, the sequential quantity game model, market demand uncertainty, and the government’s subsidy policy.

绿色企业正在考虑是开放还是关闭其新的绿色技术。开放绿色技术会引起传统企业的模仿和转型,但会加剧绿色产品市场的竞争。同时,绿色技术的模仿会导致市场份额转移效应,这是一种供给方的网络外部性,随着更多企业采用该技术,消费者的信任度会提高,绿色产品的市场份额也会增加。然而,由于市场蚕食问题,传统企业在绿色技术模仿选择中也面临两难选择。本研究构建了一个博弈论模型,以一家拥有专有绿色技术的绿色企业和一家传统企业为研究对象,探讨企业在绿色技术开放、模仿和投资之间的战略互动。我们发现,如果绿色产品的市场转移份额或市场规模相对较大,技术开放战略可能构成均衡。因此,当绿色企业开放其技术时,传统企业会通过模仿生产绿色产品。此外,与技术封闭策略相比,技术开放策略提高了社会福利,从而形成双赢局面。我们还考虑了技术许可合同模型、消费者网络效应、连续数量博弈模型、市场需求不确定性和政府补贴政策,进一步扩展了分析。
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引用次数: 0
Identification and visualisation of zombie firms using self-organizing maps 利用自组织图识别僵尸企业并将其可视化
IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-15 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06215-x
David Veganzones, Eric Séverin

The growing share of zombie firms in developed countries puts economic growth at risk, yet understanding of these uncompetitive firms remains limited. To develop new insights and understanding of zombie firms, the current study relies on data analysis and predictive modeling and aims to establish a financial diagnosis method, based on a self-organizing map of the financial profiles of zombie firms and their pathways to zombification. This article also presents a SOM-SVM prediction model that seeks to anticipate zombie firms. The findings identify diverse profiles of zombie firms; their financial evolution from initial risky phases to zombification are not uniform. The financial deterioration that leads to zombification often cannot be observed in advance, which represents a major hurdle to efforts to differentiate zombie firms from healthy ones and restricts the effectiveness of prediction methods for identifying zombie firms in initial phases.

发达国家僵尸企业的比例不断增加,危及经济增长,但人们对这些缺乏竞争力的企业的了解仍然有限。为了对 "僵尸企业 "有新的认识和理解,本研究依靠数据分析和预测建模,旨在建立一种基于 "僵尸企业 "财务状况自组织图及其 "僵尸化 "路径的财务诊断方法。本文还提出了一个旨在预测僵尸企业的 SOM-SVM 预测模型。研究结果发现了僵尸企业的不同特征;它们从最初的风险阶段到僵尸化的财务演变过程并不一致。导致僵尸化的财务恶化往往无法提前观察到,这对区分僵尸企业和健康企业的努力构成了重大障碍,并限制了在初始阶段识别僵尸企业的预测方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Designing an integrated sustainable-resilient mix-and-match vaccine supply chain network 设计具有可持续复原能力的综合混配疫苗供应链网络
IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06211-1
Ali Jahed, Seyyed Mohammad Hadji Molana, Reza Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, Vahideh Valizadeh

Vaccination is the most effective strategy for battling infectious diseases, breaking the disease transmission chain, and achieving herd immunity. Implementing vaccination for the whole population requires an integrated vaccine supply chain network that considers sustainability and resiliency in the network. For this purpose, in this research, a location-allocation-inventory-distribution problem in the sustainable and resilient vaccine supply chain network, considering mix-and-match vaccine regimens against SARS-CoV-2, is designed. The mix-and-match-based vaccination to reach robust immunization, increase vaccination effectiveness, and more resilience to cope with shortages is applied. In addition, three pillars of sustainability, to minimize distribution network costs, vaccine disposal impact, and greenhouse gas emissions, in terms of economic and environmental, and maximizing job creation, demand satisfaction, and vaccination effectiveness to ensure social sustainability, are developed. Also, scenario-based optimization is presented to meet the inevitable disruptions and breakdowns, such as the supply capacity of suppliers and uncertain amounts of vaccine demand, which depends on the previous type of vaccine injected, and robust stochastic programming is used to handle uncertainties. To solve the proposed model, efficient meta-heuristic algorithms, including the genetic algorithm (GA) and variable neighborhood search (VNS), are applied. In addition, a new hybrid algorithm called H-GAVNS based on the GA and VNS is developed in this research to discover near-optimal results. Finally, a case study of the COVID-19 vaccine in Iran’s environment is presented to confirm the accuracy of the presented model. The outcomes show that uncertainties in the real world and sustainability and resiliency aspects are well managed and responded to by the designed model.

接种疫苗是对抗传染病、切断疾病传播链和实现群体免疫的最有效策略。要实现全民疫苗接种,需要一个综合的疫苗供应链网络,并考虑到网络的可持续性和弹性。为此,本研究设计了一个可持续的弹性疫苗供应链网络中的位置-分配-库存-分配问题,其中考虑了针对 SARS-CoV-2 的混合匹配疫苗方案。应用基于混合和匹配的疫苗接种来实现稳健的免疫接种,提高疫苗接种效果,并增强应对短缺的复原力。此外,还开发了三大可持续发展支柱,即从经济和环境角度最大限度地降低分销网络成本、疫苗处置影响和温室气体排放,以及最大限度地创造就业机会、满足需求和提高疫苗接种效果,以确保社会可持续发展。此外,还提出了基于情景的优化方法,以应对不可避免的中断和故障,如供应商的供应能力和不确定的疫苗需求量(取决于先前注射的疫苗类型),并使用稳健随机编程来处理不确定性。为了解决所提出的模型,应用了高效的元启发式算法,包括遗传算法(GA)和可变邻域搜索(VNS)。此外,本研究还在遗传算法和变量邻域搜索的基础上开发了一种名为 H-GAVNS 的新型混合算法,以发现接近最优的结果。最后,介绍了伊朗环境中 COVID-19 疫苗的案例研究,以证实所介绍模型的准确性。研究结果表明,所设计的模型能够很好地管理和应对现实世界中的不确定性以及可持续性和弹性方面的问题。
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引用次数: 0
IoT-ML-enabled multipath traveling purchaser problem using variable length genetic algorithm 使用变长遗传算法解决物联网-ML 多径旅行采购员问题
IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06180-5
Sushovan Khatua, Samir Maity, Debashis De, Izabela Nielsen, Manoranjan Maiti

The Internet of Things (IoT), a modern technology, and machine learning (ML) are used to make immediate decisions. Due to the massive development of roadside infrastructure and increasing digitalization, current procurement planning is based on primary data, and there are several paths connecting markets and cities for travel. Integrating physical and cyber systems within the framework of Industry 4.0 through intelligent metaheuristic methods is more useful. Accordingly, we propose IoT-enabled and ML-based multipath traveling purchaser problems (IoT-ML-MPTPPs) for minimum cost or time and develop an ML-based variable-length genetic algorithm (ML-VLGA) to solve the proposed problems. To purchase an item, a purchaser starts from the depot with a vehicle, visits the markets for purchase until the prespecified demand is satisfied, and returns to the depot. Thus, the present investigation aims to select the appropriate markets and optimal routing route design for minimum cost or time. In developing tropical countries, travel costs and time depend on weather and key road features such as road surfaces and congestion. In real-life scenarios, the proposed IoT-ML-MPTPPs provide insights for optimizing procurement planning and transportation logistics amid dynamic factors such as weather conditions, congestion, and road surfaces. Here, the IoT supplies the above real-time parameters during the purchaser’s journey, which are used to predict the vehicle’s velocity and per unit travel and transportation costs by applying an ML method, which enhances the intelligent decision-making process. To solve the above IoT-ML-MPTPPs, an efficient problem-specific ML-VLGA with probabilistic selection and ML-based crossover is developed and applied. Comprehensive numerical experiments are performed rigorously evaluate and validate the performance of the developed ML-VLGA. These experiments demonstrate its effectiveness in both simulated scenarios and real-world applications. Managerial insights are drawn that support the use of the model.

现代技术物联网(IoT)和机器学习(ML)可用于即时决策。由于路边基础设施的大规模发展和数字化程度的不断提高,目前的采购计划都是基于原始数据,而连接市场和城市的出行路径有好几条。在工业 4.0 框架内,通过智能元智方法将物理系统和网络系统整合在一起会更有用。因此,我们提出了物联网和基于 ML 的多路径旅行采购问题(IoT-ML-MPTPPs),并开发了一种基于 ML 的变长遗传算法(ML-VLGA)来解决所提出的问题。在购买物品时,购买者会驾驶车辆从仓库出发,到各个市场购买物品,直到预先确定的需求得到满足,然后返回仓库。因此,本研究旨在选择合适的市场,并以最小的成本或时间进行最优路线设计。在热带发展中国家,旅行成本和时间取决于天气和主要道路特征,如路面和拥堵情况。在现实生活场景中,所提出的物联网-移动物流-移动运输平台为优化采购计划和运输物流提供了洞察力,并能应对天气条件、拥堵和路面等动态因素。在这里,物联网在采购员的行程中提供上述实时参数,并通过应用 ML 方法来预测车辆的速度和单位行程及运输成本,从而增强智能决策过程。为解决上述物联网-ML-MPTPPs,开发并应用了一种高效的特定问题 ML-VLGA,其中包含概率选择和基于 ML 的交叉。综合数值实验对所开发的 ML-VLGA 的性能进行了严格的评估和验证。这些实验证明了其在模拟场景和实际应用中的有效性。得出的管理见解支持该模型的使用。
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引用次数: 0
Environmental challenge of vehicle dispatching in marine container drayage 海运集装箱拖运中车辆调度对环境的挑战
IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06137-8
Etsuko Nishimura, Stratos Papadimitriou, Koichi Shintani, Akio Imai

In marine container drayage (CD), which refers to the transport of goods over a short distance, empty containers (ECs) are required to be transported long distances between a terminal and a shipper/consignee by conventional transportation. This causes truck traffic congestion in harbor districts that increases CO2 emissions (CO2EM). This study addresses the vehicle dispatch problem with respect to the environmental impact of marine CD, considering the tractor dwell time is long at the customer site due to cumbersome container loading/unloading (L/U). We model this problem as an extended version of the vehicle routing problem with precedence constraints to minimize the total CO2 weighted travel distance. To improve CD operation in long L/U time, we propose a new practice for CD operations. Additionally, we develop a mixed integer programing model (MIP) for the new practice representation, and propose a Simulated Annealing (SA) based heuristic approach to solving the new practice instance. By implementing our proposed new operation, in a long L/U time, the CO2EM, EC move and number of tractors required can also be reduced by allowing uncoupled tractor move.

海运集装箱拖运(CD)是指短途货物运输,空集装箱(EC)需要通过传统运输方式在码头和托运人/收货人之间进行长途运输。这导致港区卡车交通拥堵,增加了二氧化碳排放量(CO2EM)。考虑到由于繁琐的集装箱装卸(L/U),拖拉机在客户现场的停留时间较长,本研究针对海运集装箱对环境的影响解决了车辆调度问题。我们将该问题建模为带有优先级约束的车辆路由问题的扩展版,以最小化二氧化碳加权总行程。为了改善在较长的 L/U 时间内的 CD 操作,我们提出了一种新的 CD 操作方法。此外,我们还为新实践表示法开发了一个混合整数编程模型(MIP),并提出了一种基于模拟退火(SA)的启发式方法来解决新实践实例。通过实施我们提出的新操作,在较长的 L/U 时间内,还可以通过允许非耦合拖拉机移动来减少 CO2EM、EC 移动和所需拖拉机数量。
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引用次数: 0
Multi-period electricity distribution network investment planning under demand coincidence in the smart grid 智能电网需求重合下的多期配电网投资规划
IF 4.8 3区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06107-0
Lenard Rüde, Gunther Gust, Dirk Neumann

In recent years, new smart technologies like electric vehicles and active demand management have been introduced to reduce carbon emissions in electricity distribution networks, resulting in altered electricity consumption patterns. However, the impact of the technologies on electricity consumption remains uncertain due to a lack of rigorous evaluation methods and planning techniques accounting for these changes. Addressing these gaps, this paper contributes three key elements to information systems literature. First, this paper presents a policy to plan multi-period electricity distribution networks that are able to take into account changing electricity consumption patterns. This paper uses a policy to determine the impact of new technologies on distribution network investments. Second, this paper determines the effect of network topologies on distribution network investments with altered consumption patterns. Third, this paper develops and solves a novel optimization problem that formalizes the task of long-term distribution network planning under variable consumption patterns. This work holds implications for distribution network management, policy, and research. It offers recommendations for integrating our policies into practical procedures, emphasizing the need for more rigorous planning incentives for policymakers. Furthermore, the large effect of altered consumption patterns shows that actions are needed to design policies that work towards lowering load coincidence. For researchers, the presented problem and solution methods are generalizable and can help researchers in other domains (e.g. parcel delivery, water distribution) to solve comparable planning problems.

近年来,为减少配电网络中的碳排放,引入了电动汽车和主动需求管理等新型智能技术,从而改变了用电模式。然而,由于缺乏考虑到这些变化的严格评估方法和规划技术,这些技术对用电量的影响仍不确定。针对这些差距,本文为信息系统文献贡献了三个关键要素。首先,本文提出了一种能够考虑到不断变化的用电模式的多周期配电网络规划政策。本文利用该政策来确定新技术对配电网络投资的影响。其次,本文确定了网络拓扑结构对改变消费模式的配电网络投资的影响。第三,本文提出并解决了一个新颖的优化问题,该问题将消费模式可变情况下的长期配电网络规划任务形式化。这项工作对配电网络管理、政策和研究具有重要意义。它提出了将我们的政策融入实际程序的建议,强调了为政策制定者提供更严格的规划激励的必要性。此外,消费模式改变所产生的巨大影响表明,需要采取行动制定政策,努力降低负荷重合度。对于研究人员来说,所提出的问题和解决方法具有通用性,可以帮助其他领域(如包裹递送、水分配)的研究人员解决类似的规划问题。
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引用次数: 0
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