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Countering Over-Confidence and Over-Optimism By Creating Awareness and Experiential Learning Amongst Stock Market Players 通过在股票市场参与者中建立意识和体验式学习来对抗过度自信和过度乐观
Pub Date : 2006-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.954861
Gauri Manglik
This paper explores the effects of the over-confidence and over-optimism biases in the stock markets. These biases strike at the root of why people trade and often, why people incur losses on the stock market. It suggests legal and other responses that would mitigate these biases. In Part I, the author elaborates on the meaning and presence of the over-confidence and over-optimism biases amongst players in the stock markets and notes their continued presence amongst investors. In Part II, the author observes the key effects of these biases and estimates the economic costs incurred as a result of these biases. She concludes that they are substantially high and recommends efforts to minimize these biases amongst investors in the stock markets. In Part III, the author explores ways in which legal policy can help limit these biases effectively.
本文探讨了过度自信和过度乐观偏差对股票市场的影响。这些偏见是人们交易的根源,也是人们在股市上蒙受损失的根源。它建议采取法律和其他措施来减轻这些偏见。在第一部分中,作者详细阐述了股票市场参与者中过度自信和过度乐观偏见的含义和存在,并指出它们在投资者中持续存在。在第二部分中,作者观察了这些偏见的关键影响,并估计了这些偏见造成的经济成本。她得出的结论是,它们相当高,并建议努力减少股票市场投资者的这些偏见。在第三部分,作者探讨了法律政策可以有效地帮助限制这些偏见的方法。
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引用次数: 12
The Transformation of European Trading States 欧洲贸易国家的转型
Pub Date : 2006-06-13 DOI: 10.2307/j.ctv22jnt4g.14
R. Steinberg
This chapter argues that much of contemporary state transformation is driven not by socialization, nor by trade liberalization in the abstract, but by the particular legal-institutional form of trade liberalization since 1948. Contemporary trade liberalization has been a product of US (and, later, US-European) power, exercised through the creation and operation of the GATT and its successor, the WTO, and reflected in the GATT/WTO's substantive rules. The particular form and processes of trade liberalization have entailed not just the abandonment of certain national policies, but also shifts of authority within the state, the creation of new kinds of state capacities, and new processes of policy-making. European state transformation is part of this story. The changing organization of Western European states and EU institutions can not be fully understood without considering the exigencies of partnering with the United States to govern the institutions of the global trading system. For the EU to join the United States in governing the GATT/WTO required changes in the organization of the European state: shifting authority upward within states and to the Commission, expanding state capacity within states and at the European level, and changing processes of member-state and European trade policy-making. Europe chose to transform along lines that have enabled it to co-govern the world trading system. European-US governance of the world trading system has, in turn, favored changes in the organization of the state in third countries toward a Western industrialized model of the state.
本章认为,当代国家转型的大部分不是由社会化驱动的,也不是由抽象的贸易自由化驱动的,而是由1948年以来贸易自由化的特定法律制度形式驱动的。当代贸易自由化是美国(以及后来的美欧)权力的产物,这种权力通过关贸总协定及其后继者世贸组织的创立和运作得以行使,并反映在关贸总协定/世贸组织的实体规则中。贸易自由化的特殊形式和过程不仅需要放弃某些国家政策,还需要国家内部权力的转移,创造新的国家能力,以及新的决策过程。欧洲国家转型是这个故事的一部分。如果不考虑与美国合作治理全球贸易体系机构的紧迫性,就无法充分理解西欧国家和欧盟机构组织结构的变化。欧盟要加入美国管理关贸总协定/世贸组织的行列,就需要改变欧洲国家的组织结构:将国家内部的权力向上转移到欧盟委员会,扩大国家内部和欧洲层面的国家能力,改变成员国和欧洲贸易政策制定的过程。欧洲选择沿着使其能够共同治理世界贸易体系的路线进行转型。欧美对世界贸易体系的治理反过来又有利于第三国的国家组织向西方工业化国家模式转变。
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引用次数: 3
Framing Public Interventions with Respect to Children as Parent-Empowering 将公共干预措施与儿童联系起来,赋予父母权力
Pub Date : 2006-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.925246
S. Sugarman
Government interventions into the life of the family are typically viewed as intrusions - to protect abused or neglected children, to liberate children, or to provide supervision for children who are beyond the control of their parents. But a more important public role is to provide assistance to parents in order to empower them to promote the best interests of their children. This assistance can come in many forms - material resources, information, and control over third parties who otherwise threaten to undermine parental authority. This essay discusses reframing the way we think about children and the state.
政府对家庭生活的干预通常被认为是一种侵犯——保护受虐待或被忽视的儿童,解放儿童,或为父母无法控制的儿童提供监督。但更重要的公共角色是向父母提供帮助,使他们有能力促进子女的最大利益。这种帮助可以有多种形式——物质资源、信息和对第三方的控制,否则他们会威胁到父母的权威。这篇文章讨论了如何重新构建我们对儿童和国家的看法。
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引用次数: 2
The Case for Limited Shareholder Voting Rights 有限股东投票权的案例
Pub Date : 2005-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.781429
Stephen M. Bainbridge
Recent years have seen a number of efforts to extend the shareholder franchise. These efforts implicate two fundamental issues for corporation law. First, why do shareholders - and only shareholders - have voting rights? Second, why are the voting rights of shareholders so limited? This essay proposes answers for those questions. As for efforts to expand the limited shareholder voting rights currently provided by corporation law, the essay argues that the director primacy-based system of U.S. corporate governance has served investors and society well. This record of success occurred not in spite of the separation of ownership and control, but because of that separation. Before changing making further changes to the system of corporate law that has worked well for generations, it would be appropriate to give those changes already made time to work their way through the system. To the extent additional change or reform is thought desirable at this point, surely it should be in the nature of minor modifications to the newly adopted rules designed to enhance their performance, or rather than radical and unprecedented shifts in the system of corporate governance that has existed for decades.
近年来,我们看到了一些扩大股东特许经营权的努力。这些努力涉及公司法的两个基本问题。首先,为什么股东——而且只有股东——才有投票权?第二,为什么股东的投票权如此有限?本文为这些问题提供了答案。对于扩大公司法目前规定的有限股东投票权的努力,本文认为,美国公司治理中以董事为基础的制度对投资者和社会都有很好的服务。这一成功的记录并非是在所有权和控制权分离的情况下发生的,而是因为这种分离。在对几代人以来运作良好的公司法体系进行进一步修改之前,给已经做出的修改留出时间,让它们在整个体系中发挥作用,这是合适的。如果说目前人们认为有必要进行额外的改变或改革,那当然应该是对新采用的规则进行微小的修改,以提高它们的绩效,而不是对已经存在了几十年的公司治理体系进行彻底的、前所未有的改革。
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引用次数: 106
The Determinants of Professional Fees in Large Bankruptcy Reorganization Cases 大型破产重整案件中专业费用的决定因素
Pub Date : 2004-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.419280
Lynn M. LoPucki, Joseph W. Doherty
This article presents the findings of an empirical study of professional fee and expense awards by United States Bankruptcy Courts in 48 large public company bankruptcy cases concluded from 1998 through the first half of 2002. Data was gathered from fee applications and orders in the courts files. Using that data together with case and company data from the Bankruptcy Research Database, the authors constructed regression models of the determinants of (1) the amounts of professional fees and expenses awarded by case and (2) the amounts of debtor-in-possession bankruptcy attorneys fees awarded by case. Two determinants dominate both models: the value of the reorganizing firm's assets and the length of time the case remains pending. Two additional factors contribute to determining the amount of professional fees and expenses, but not debtor in possession bankruptcy attorneys fees: the number of professional firms working in the bankruptcy case and whether the case was in the Delaware bankruptcy court. The ratio of fees and expenses to firm size was subject to a scale effect. As the size of the case increased, the ratio of fees to expenses declined. For the 48 cases studied, total fees and expenses were 1.4% of assets reported on the bankruptcy petition. The average ratio of fees and expenses to assets was 2.2%, but removal of a single outlier reduced it to 1.9%. Controlling for firm size, case duration, and the number of professional firms working, fees were 32% higher in Delaware cases. But controlling only for firm size, the significance of this finding disappeared. Fee cuts were generally small - exceeding 4% of the amounts applied for in only 11% of the cases. The mean fee cut varied significantly by court. Delaware cuts averaged 0.7%, New York 4.5%, and Other Courts 2.3%. The differences in fee cuts among courts was significant, but fees were not significantly lower in cases with larger fee cuts. Based on a comparison of the data gathered in this study with the data gathered by Weiss, inflation-adjusted professional fees and expenses awarded in large, public company reorganizations have fallen by about 57% since the 1980s. Controlling only for firm size, the difference is statistically significant. The decline in fees appears to be associated with the decline in case duration that occurred during the period.
本文介绍了对1998年至2002年上半年美国破产法院对48个大型上市公司破产案件的专业费用和费用裁决的实证研究结果。数据是从法院档案中的费用申请和命令中收集的。利用这些数据以及破产研究数据库中的案例和公司数据,作者构建了以下决定因素的回归模型:(1)案件授予的专业费用和支出金额;(2)案件授予的债务人持有财产破产律师费金额。两个决定因素支配着这两个模型:重组公司资产的价值和案件悬而未决的时间长度。两个额外的因素有助于确定专业费用和开支的数量,但不是债务人的财产破产律师费用:在破产案件中工作的专业公司的数量以及案件是否在特拉华州破产法院进行。费用和开支与公司规模的比率受到规模效应的影响。随着案件规模的增加,费用与费用的比率下降。在研究的48个案例中,总费用和支出占破产申请中申报资产的1.4%。费用和支出占资产的平均比率为2.2%,但去掉一个异常值后,该比率降至1.9%。在控制事务所规模、案件持续时间和专业律师事务所数量的情况下,特拉华州案件的收费高出32%。但如果只考虑公司规模,这一发现的意义就消失了。费用削减幅度一般很小,只有11%的案件超过申请金额的4%。不同法院的平均减收金额差别很大。特拉华州的平均削减率为0.7%,纽约州为4.5%,其他法院为2.3%。不同法院的减费幅度差异显著,但减费幅度较大的案件的减费幅度并不明显。根据本研究收集的数据与Weiss收集的数据的比较,自20世纪80年代以来,经通货膨胀调整后,大型上市公司重组的专业费用和支出下降了约57%。仅控制公司规模,差异在统计上是显著的。费用的下降似乎与该期间发生的案件持续时间的下降有关。
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引用次数: 90
Did Privacy Cause Identity Theft? 隐私导致身份盗窃吗?
Pub Date : 2003-03-25 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.386881
Lynn M. LoPucki
This essay argues that the decline of public identities over the past three decades, combined with increasing secrecy in the process of identification, is the root cause of the burgeoning problem of identity theft. Identity theft is easy because impersonation increasingly takes place in private transactions that are invisible to the victim. The essay compares two proposed solutions: Professor Daniel Soloves' architectural approach and the author's Public Identity System. Both would make the identification process transparent to the person identified, put imposters at risk by requiring personal appearances, and ban the use of social security numbers as passwords. But the two writers take opposing positions with respect to continued secrecy of the information used to identify consumers. Solove would maintain the link between identification information (name and social security number) and personal information (information descriptive of the consumer or the consumer's circumstances) and seek to impose better security to keep all of it from thieves. The author would sever the link between the two kinds of information, make identification information - which is harmless - public, and allow consumers to use it to create public, thief-proof identities. The essay explains the operation of the Public Identity System the author proposed in Human Identification Theory and the Identity Theft Problem, 80 Texas Law Review 89 (2001) and addresses Solove's objections related to the public display of social security numbers, consumer profiling, stalking, marketing abuse, and other aspects of the proposed System.
这篇文章认为,在过去的三十年里,公共身份的衰落,加上身份识别过程中的日益保密,是身份盗窃问题日益严重的根本原因。身份盗窃很容易,因为冒充越来越多地发生在受害者看不见的私人交易中。本文比较了两种提出的解决方案:Daniel Soloves教授的建筑方法和作者的公共身份系统。两者都将使识别过程对被识别的人透明,通过要求个人露面使冒名顶替者面临风险,并禁止使用社会安全号码作为密码。但两位作者在继续保密用于识别消费者的信息方面持相反的立场。Solove将保持身份信息(姓名和社会安全号码)和个人信息(描述消费者或消费者情况的信息)之间的联系,并寻求实施更好的安全措施,以防止所有这些信息被窃贼窃取。作者将切断这两种信息之间的联系,使无害的身份信息公开,并允许消费者使用它来创建公开的、防盗的身份。本文解释了作者在《人类身份识别理论和身份盗窃问题》(80 Texas Law Review 89, 2001)中提出的公共身份系统的运作,并解决了Solove对公开显示社会安全号码、消费者分析、跟踪、营销滥用和拟议系统的其他方面的反对意见。
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引用次数: 9
Social Networks, Civil Society, Democracy and Rule of Law: A New Conceptual Framework 社会网络、公民社会、民主与法治:一个新的概念框架
Pub Date : 2003-01-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.372680
R. Peerenboom
Although social networks exist in every society, they are widely believed to play a different and more prominent role in Asian societies, especially those with a Confucian heritage, than in Western states, particularly Western states with mature capitalist economies, liberal democratic political systems with robust civil societies, and well developed legal systems characterized by rule of law and a modern bureaucratic administrative system. This chapter article examines the role of social networks along two dimensions: political reform and the implementation and consolidation of democracy; and legal reforms aimed at establishing rule of law and a modern technocratic administrative system. Clearly there are wide variations in the nature and role of social networks in Asia, which is to be expected given the wide diversity in Asian societies in terms of religious and cultural practices, political systems, levels of economic development and legal systems. Rather than attempting a broad comparison of social networks throughout Asia, my main focus will be on China, with reference to the experiences of other countries where relevant. In some Western states such as Poland and other former Soviet Union republics, social groups in the form of civil society played a central role in the transition to democracy; in more established liberal democracies, civil society serves important functions in monitoring the state, holding government officials accountable and counterbalancing state power. Buoyed by the experiences of the former Soviet republics, a number of China scholars turned their attention in the early to mid 1990s to the topic of civil society and whether the proliferation of social organizations in China would lead to democracy. Many scholars cautioned that the concept of civil society as understood in the West may not be applicable to China; some pointed out that civil society was mainly a topic among foreign scholars and Chinese living in exile, and that the idea of civil society has not become part of popular discourse in China; still others argued that state-society relations are better understood in corporatist terms, and that the corporatist nature of social groups in China may serve to bolster the authoritarian regime rather than lead to democracy. I consider whether the concept of civil society is applicable to China and how civil society is best theorized given the differences between the liberal democratic social-political philosophies dominant in the West and alternative conceptions of the relations between the state, society and individual in China. To that end I develop four models for state-society relations: liberal democratic, statist socialist, neo-authoritarian and communitarian. These models combine social political philosophies with a corresponding set of institutions, practices and rules, thus redressing the relative neglect to date in theoretical treatments of civil society in China of the institutional basis of civil society, a
尽管每个社会都存在社交网络,但人们普遍认为,社交网络在亚洲社会,尤其是那些具有儒家传统的社会,扮演着不同的、更突出的角色,而不是在西方国家,尤其是拥有成熟资本主义经济、自由民主政治体系、健全公民社会、以法治和现代官僚行政体系为特征的发达法律体系的西方国家。本章文章从两个方面考察了社会网络的作用:政治改革和民主的实施和巩固;法律改革旨在建立法治和现代技术官僚行政体系。显然,亚洲社会网络的性质和作用存在很大差异,考虑到亚洲社会在宗教和文化习俗、政治制度、经济发展水平和法律制度方面的广泛多样性,这是可以预料的。我不打算对整个亚洲的社交网络进行广泛的比较,而是主要关注中国,并参考其他相关国家的经验。在一些西方国家,如波兰和其他前苏联加盟共和国,公民社会形式的社会团体在向民主过渡的过程中发挥了核心作用;在更成熟的自由民主国家,公民社会在监督国家、问责政府官员和制衡国家权力方面发挥着重要作用。受前苏联加盟共和国经验的鼓舞,一些中国学者在上世纪90年代早期到中期将注意力转向公民社会以及社会组织在中国的扩散是否会导致民主的话题。许多学者警告说,西方理解的公民社会概念可能不适用于中国;有人指出,公民社会主要是外国学者和流亡者之间的话题,公民社会的概念尚未成为中国大众话语的一部分;还有一些人认为,用社团主义的术语来理解国家与社会的关系更好,中国社会团体的社团主义性质可能会支持威权政权,而不是导致民主。鉴于西方占主导地位的自由民主社会政治哲学与中国关于国家、社会和个人关系的其他概念之间的差异,我考虑公民社会的概念是否适用于中国,以及如何最好地理论化公民社会。为此,我提出了国家与社会关系的四种模式:自由民主制、中央集权社会主义、新威权主义和社群主义。这些模式将社会政治哲学与相应的制度、实践和规则相结合,从而纠正了迄今为止中国公民社会理论研究中对公民社会制度基础的相对忽视,特别是对法律制度的性质及其在创造、构建和塑造公民社会中的作用的忽视。我还探讨了公民社会概念与社会网络之间的关系。我们从关注社交网络的转变中获得了什么?我们失去了什么?我认为,在呼吁关注当代社会中个人与群体之间的横向关系时,对(情感)社会网络的关注提供了对个人与国家之间空间的一些见解,而这些空间被更垂直的公民社会和社团主义概念所忽略。然而,社会网络本身是嵌入在国家-社会关系的垂直结构中。此外,在许多情况下,社会网络本身以垂直关系面向国家,因此构成了垂直的国家-社会结构。简而言之,关注社会网络丰富了我们对中国公民社会的理解,提供了一种具有中国特色的公民社会形式,而不是提供另一种分析框架。换句话说,社会网络研究和理论仍然必须放在更广泛的政治理论和制度解释中。我开发的四个模型既涉及公民社会的垂直维度,也涉及公民社会的水平维度,因此一方面解决了社团主义未能充分关注水平关系的问题,另一方面解决了情感社会网络分析倾向于强调水平维度而牺牲垂直组成部分,或者未能将情感社会网络的讨论与国家-社会关系的不同政治概念充分联系起来的问题。
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引用次数: 6
Insider Abstention 内幕弃权
Pub Date : 2003-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.330520
J. Fried
According to conventional wisdom, insiders' use of private information to abstain from trading raises the same policy concerns as insider trading. This widely held perception has dominated much of the academic debate over the regulation of insider trading. I show that this view is flatly incorrect: as long as insiders cannot trade while in possession of nonpublic information, their ability to use nonpublic information to abstain from trading does not make them better off than public shareholders. I then explain why insider abstention cannot give rise to the same type of economic distortions that might be associated with insider trading. I conclude by analyzing the implications of my findings for a number of issues in insider trading regulation, including the use vs. possession debate and the Rule 10b5-1 safe harbor. Key Words:
根据传统观点,内部人士利用私人信息来回避交易,与内幕交易一样,也引发了政策担忧。这种被广泛接受的看法主导了很多关于内幕交易监管的学术辩论。我认为这种观点是完全错误的:只要内部人士在掌握非公开信息的情况下不能进行交易,他们利用非公开信息不进行交易的能力就不会使他们比公众股东更有优势。然后,我解释了为什么内部人弃权不会引起可能与内幕交易相关的同一类型的经济扭曲。最后,我分析了我的研究结果对内幕交易监管中一些问题的影响,包括使用与占有辩论和10b5-1规则安全港。关键词:
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引用次数: 9
Bad and Not-so-Bad Arguments for Shareholder Primacy 股东至上的坏的和不坏的论点
Pub Date : 2002-11-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.331464
Lynn A. Stout
Since the public corporation first evolved as a business form, there has been a lively debate over whether its proper purpose always is to maximize shareholder wealth, or whether directors sometimes can consider the interests of creditors, employees, and other corporate stakeholders. This article reviews why two of the arguments traditionally used to justify strict shareholder primacy - that shareholders own the corporation, and that shareholders are the sole residual claimants of corporations - are bad arguments, in the sense that they are demonstrably incorrect from both an economic and a legal perspective. The article then explores a third and better argument for shareholder primacy: that requiring corporate directors to serve only shareholders is the best way to keep directors from imposing excessive agency costs on firms. This agency cost argument recognizes that in an ideal world, directors would take account of the interests of both shareholders and other stakeholders. Indeed, allowing this can provide ex ante benefits to shareholders by encouraging nonshareholder groups to make firm-specific commitments to corporate team production. Nevertheless (the argument goes), a rule of strict shareholder primacy remains preferable, because it permits corporations to monitor and reward director performance according to a single easily-observed metric: stock price. While plausible in theory, the agency cost argument for strict shareholder primacy suffers from a serious weakness. In practice, the business world displays a strong revealed preference for corporate governance rules that grant directors discretion to serve stakeholder groups, even at shareholders' ex post expense. What's more, this pattern is observed when firms are first incorporated and brought public, a time when corporate promoters have every incentive to cater to shareholder interests. Such observations suggest that business participants believe the ex ante benefits of allowing directors to consider stakeholder interests outweigh the ex post harms in terms of greater agency costs. They also raise serious questions about the empirical strength of the agency cost argument for ex post shareholder primacy.
自从上市公司最初演变为一种商业形式以来,就一直存在着一场激烈的辩论,即上市公司的正当目的是否总是为了使股东财富最大化,或者董事是否有时可以考虑债权人、雇员和其他公司利益相关者的利益。本文回顾了为什么传统上用来证明严格的股东至上的两个论点——股东拥有公司,股东是公司唯一的剩余索取者——是糟糕的论点,因为从经济和法律的角度来看,它们都是明显不正确的。然后,本文探讨了股东至上的第三个更好的论据:要求公司董事只为股东服务是防止董事对公司施加过多代理成本的最佳方式。这种代理成本观点承认,在理想情况下,董事会同时考虑股东和其他利益相关者的利益。事实上,允许这样做可以通过鼓励非股东团体对公司团队生产做出特定于公司的承诺,为股东提供事前利益。尽管如此(这种观点认为),严格的股东至上原则仍然是可取的,因为它允许公司根据一个易于观察的指标——股价——来监督和奖励董事的业绩。尽管从理论上讲是合理的,但严格股东至上的代理成本论点存在一个严重的弱点。在实践中,商界对公司治理规则表现出强烈的偏好,这些规则赋予董事为利益相关者群体服务的自由裁量权,即使股东事后要付出代价。更重要的是,当公司刚成立并上市时,这种模式就会被观察到,那时公司发起人有充分的动机去迎合股东的利益。这些观察结果表明,企业参与者认为,就更大的代理成本而言,允许董事考虑利益相关者利益的事前利益大于事后损害。它们还对事后股东至上的代理成本论证的实证力量提出了严重质疑。
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引用次数: 192
The Investor Confidence Game 投资者信心游戏
Pub Date : 2002-08-14 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.322301
Lynn A. Stout
Recent reports of massive accounting frauds at some of the nation's largest and most respected companies have provoked calls from policymakers and business leaders for market reforms to shore up investor confidence. Nevertheless, the phenomenon of investor confidence has received relatively little formal study. Current legal scholarship tends to assume, with little discussion, that investors have "confidence" when they have information that assures them that the incentives provided by the law and by the markets are adequate to constrain corporate insiders and securities professionals from shirking, stealing, and other forms of opportunistic behavior. This "rational expectations" approach also implies that, in the absence of such assurance, investors protect themselves from others' opportunism by refusing to invest in the market in the first place. This article argues that the phenomenon of investor confidence can be understood far better if we assume not that investors have rational expectations, but that they have what economists call "adaptive expectations". Individuals with rational expectations predict others' behavior by focusing on their external incentives and constraints. In contrast, individuals with adaptive expectations predict others' behavior (including possibly the behavior of such an abstract "other" as the stock market) by extrapolating from the past. Adaptive expectations consequently permit trust, meaning a belief that another will behave in a cooperative and trustworthy fashion simply because he or she has behaved trustworthily and cooperatively in the past. The article argues that there is substantial reason to believe that adaptive expectations-based trust is essential to a well-developed public securities market. It reviews experimental studies that shed light on how trust can be developed and how it can be destroyed. Finally, it considers some of the policy implications that flow from an adaptive expectations model of investor confidence. One of the most important is that trust may be subject to "history effects." If an individual or institution has behaved cooperatively in the past, trusting investors tend to assume that that institution or individual will behave cooperatively in the future - even if incentives change so that cooperation is no longer advantageous. Conversely, trust that has been abused tends to disappear, and it can be slow to return even when the problems that led to its abuse have been corrected. This second observation carries pessimistic implications for lawmakers' ability to restore investor confidence quickly through legal reforms after that confidence has been eroded.
最近有报道称,中国一些规模最大、最受尊敬的公司存在大规模会计欺诈,这促使政策制定者和商界领袖呼吁进行市场改革,以提振投资者信心。然而,投资者信心现象得到的正式研究相对较少。目前的法律学术倾向于假设(很少讨论),当投资者有信息保证他们相信法律和市场提供的激励足以约束公司内部人员和证券专业人员逃避、盗窃和其他形式的机会主义行为时,他们就有“信心”。这种“理性预期”方法还意味着,在缺乏这种保证的情况下,投资者首先会拒绝在市场上投资,以保护自己免受他人机会主义的伤害。本文认为,如果我们不假设投资者有理性预期,而是假设他们有经济学家所说的“适应性预期”,就可以更好地理解投资者信心现象。具有理性预期的个体通过关注外部激励和约束来预测他人的行为。相比之下,具有适应性期望的个体通过从过去推断来预测他人的行为(可能包括像股票市场这样抽象的“他者”的行为)。适应性期望因此允许信任,这意味着相信另一个人会以合作和值得信赖的方式行事,仅仅是因为他或她过去的行为值得信赖和合作。本文认为,有充分的理由相信,基于适应性预期的信任对一个发达的公共证券市场至关重要。它回顾了一些实验研究,这些研究揭示了信任是如何建立的,又是如何被摧毁的。最后,本文考虑了一些来自投资者信心适应性预期模型的政策含义。其中最重要的一点是,信任可能会受到“历史效应”的影响。如果一个个人或机构在过去表现得很合作,那么信任的投资者倾向于假设该机构或个人在未来也会表现得很合作——即使激励机制发生了变化,合作不再是有利的。相反,被滥用的信任往往会消失,即使导致滥用的问题得到纠正,信任也会缓慢恢复。对于立法者在投资者信心受到侵蚀后通过法律改革迅速恢复投资者信心的能力,第二种观点带来了悲观的影响。
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引用次数: 27
期刊
University of California, Davis law review
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