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A Securities Tax and the Problems of Taxing Global Capital 证券税与全球资本征税问题
Pub Date : 2020-06-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3619211
Mark P. Gergen
An earlier paper, How to Tax Capital, 70 Tax L. Rev. 1 (2016), proposed a new approach to taxing capital owned by U.S. households and nonprofits. The cornerstone is a flat periodic tax on the market value of U.S. publicly traded securities. An annual tax rate of around .8 percent (80 basis points) would roughly approximate the average tax burden on capital income in the U.S. under the existing patchwork system for taxing capital income. A security issuer would remit the tax based on the market value of its securities. A security issuer would receive a credit for U.S. publicly traded securities it holds so that wealth that is represented by a string of publicly traded securities would be taxed once. Wealth held in forms other than publicly traded securities (e.g, private equity and closely held companies) would be taxed by a complementary tax at the same rate on their estimated value. The earlier paper explained why the securities tax is superior to the individual income tax and the corporate income tax as a tax on capital. It eliminates most distortions created by the existing system, it is easy to administer, and it is impossible to evade other than by holding wealth in illiquid forms (which is costly). This paper examines how the securities tax would function in a global context assuming that other nations do not change their approach to taxing cross-border investment. The current system involves a bifurcated tax on capital income with the nation in which capital is used imposing a company-level tax on income and the state in which owners of capital reside imposing an owner-level tax of dividends, interest, and capital gains. The securities tax is a unitary tax on capital imposed at the company level. Integrating a unitary tax with the current bifurcated system requires several modifications in the securities tax: the corporate income tax would need to be retained to tax foreign direct investment in the U.S.; the U.S. would probably want to give a U.S. company a partial credit against the securities tax for foreign taxes paid by a company on foreign source income; and the U.S. probably would want to rebate a significant part of the securities tax to identified foreign owners of U.S. securities (the rebate would not be paid to unidentified owners). These modifications would mean that the securities tax would not remedy the problems that currently plague the taxation of global capital. One modest benefit is that not rebating the tax to unidentified foreign owners of U.S. assets would allow the U.S. government to share in the profit from the U.S. serving as a haven for hidden wealth, which would make the U.S. somewhat less attractive as a haven. But the modified securities tax would be no worse than the status quo with respect to taxing cross border investment.
早期的一篇论文《如何对资本征税,70 Tax L. Rev. 1(2016)》提出了一种对美国家庭和非营利组织拥有的资本征税的新方法。其基础是对美国公开交易证券的市场价值定期征收统一税。大约0.8%(80个基点)的年税率大致相当于美国现有的资本收入拼凑税制下的平均资本收入税负。证券发行人将根据其证券的市场价值缴纳税款。证券发行人持有的美国公开交易证券将获得信贷,这样一系列公开交易证券所代表的财富将被一次性征税。以公开交易证券以外的形式持有的财富(例如,私人股本和少数人持股的公司)将按其估计价值按相同的税率征收补充税。前面的文章解释了为什么证券税作为资本税优于个人所得税和企业所得税。它消除了现有制度造成的大多数扭曲,易于管理,除了以非流动性形式持有财富(这是昂贵的)之外,不可能逃避。本文考察了证券税如何在全球范围内发挥作用,假设其他国家不改变他们对跨境投资征税的方法。目前的制度涉及对资本收入的双重征税,资本使用国对收入征收公司级税,资本所有者居住的州对股息、利息和资本收益征收所有者级税。证券税是在公司层面对资本征收的单一税。将单一税与目前的分税制相结合,需要对证券税进行几项修改:企业所得税需要保留,以便对在美外国直接投资征税;美国可能希望给予美国公司部分抵免证券税,以抵免公司因外国来源收入而缴纳的外国税款;而且,美国可能希望将很大一部分证券税退还给持有美国证券的已确认的外国所有者(退税不会支付给未确认的所有者)。这些修改将意味着,证券税将无法解决目前困扰全球资本征税的问题。一个小小的好处是,不向持有美国资产的身份不明的外国所有者返还税款,将使美国政府能够分享美国作为隐藏财富避风港所带来的利润,这将使美国作为避风港的吸引力有所下降。但在对跨境投资征税方面,修改后的证券税不会比现状更糟糕。
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引用次数: 1
Julius Caesar, Keanu Reeves, Nicholas Cage, and Econometrics? Four Analytical Insights for Antitrust Counsel 凯撒大帝、基努·里维斯、尼古拉斯·凯奇和计量经济学?反垄断法律顾问的四个分析见解
Pub Date : 2020-04-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3582169
Ai Deng
Has acting made your a better person? Keanu Reeves was asked that question on his promotional tour for John Wick Chapter 2. Interestingly, his (struggling to) answer tells us a lot about the type of challenges we face in antitrust analysis. Using a series of everyday life examples, analogies, and with help from Keanu Reeves, Julius Caesar, and Nicolas Cage, I discuss four powerful insights in statistics and econometrics that antitrust practitioners can learn and apply, all without any deep understanding of the underlying mathematics. My goal is to convince the readers that you do not need an advanced degree in economics or statistics to become more than dangerous when it comes to econometric analysis in the antitrust domain.
演戏让你成为更好的人了吗?基努·里维斯在为《约翰·威克2》做宣传时被问到这个问题。有趣的是,他(苦苦挣扎的)回答告诉了我们很多我们在反垄断分析中面临的挑战类型。在基努·里维斯、朱利叶斯·凯撒和尼古拉斯·凯奇的帮助下,我使用一系列日常生活中的例子和类比,讨论了反垄断从业者可以学习和应用的统计学和计量经济学中的四个强有力的见解,而无需对基础数学有任何深刻的理解。我的目标是让读者相信,当涉及到反垄断领域的计量经济分析时,你不需要经济学或统计学的高级学位就能变得非常危险。
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引用次数: 0
WADA Time to Stay the Course: Maintaining the Collectively Bargained Anti-Doping Policies in American Sports Leagues 世界反兴奋剂机构是时候坚持到底了:在美国体育联盟中维持集体协商的反兴奋剂政策
Pub Date : 2020-03-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3573201
Warren Chu
If you were to ask any person that regularly watches sports if doping or performance enhancing drugs (“PEDs”) are prevalent in any of the major American sports leagues, the answer would likely be a resounding “yes.” From Barry Bonds to Lance Armstrong, the specter of doping has hung over American sports through the past few decades and there has been a consistent pressure to ramp up efforts to catch offenders. Yet, while the major American sports leagues (such as Major League Baseball, the National Basketball Association, and the National Football League) have updated their drug policies, they have not signed onto the World Anti-Doping Agency’s Anti-Doping Code. To outside observers, the question arises: if American sports leagues are truly serious about catching athletes who use performance enhancing drugs, then why would they not sign onto the world’s largest anti-doping agency?

The World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) was established in 1999 by the International Olympic Committee in order to address the doping scandal that occurred at the 1998 Tour de France. The Agency’s Code is designed to be extremely strict and punitive in order to properly deter athletes from doping and affecting the fairness of competitions. Their strict code has drawn the ire of many athletes and implicated privacy concerns, but remains in place, governing the Olympics, international sporting competitions, and even the Ultimate Fighting Competition through the US Anti-Doping Agency.

The MLB, NBA, and NFL, despite past pressure from Congress and WADA officials, have continued to monitor their own athletes and collectively bargain with their players’ unions to develop drug testing policies that are both effective and less invasive. Collective bargaining has been seen as a weakness among proponents of the WADA Code; the argument is that collective bargaining fails to address the incentives for players to negotiate “toothless” drug policies and incentives for leagues to ensure that their star players are not implicated in any scandals. However, these concerns are generally overblown, which will be explained further below.

This Note argues that while American sports leagues do have some work to do in order to properly combat doping, the WADA Code is far too draconian and overly punitive to be implemented in American sports. As they stand, the American sports league policies are sufficient and should not become any harsher than they currently are. Part I examines the current anti-doping policies of the MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as the WADA Code. Part II argues that because of the drawbacks of the WADA Code, the American major sports leagues would be ill-advised to adopt WADA’s Code to govern themselves both because the difference in effectiveness is not significant enough to impose the WADA restrictions on American athletes and because doping is not significant enough of a problem to justify it. Part III suggests that striking a balance between current Ameri
如果你问任何一个经常观看体育比赛的人,兴奋剂或提高成绩的药物(“ped”)是否在美国任何一个主要的体育联盟中普遍存在,答案很可能是响亮的“是的”。从巴里·邦兹(Barry Bonds)到兰斯·阿姆斯特朗(Lance Armstrong),兴奋剂的幽灵在过去几十年里一直笼罩着美国体育界,加大力度抓捕违规者的压力也一直存在。然而,虽然美国主要的体育联盟(如美国职业棒球大联盟、美国国家篮球协会和美国国家橄榄球联盟)已经更新了他们的药物政策,但他们还没有签署世界反兴奋剂机构的反兴奋剂条例。对于外界观察人士来说,问题来了:如果美国体育联盟真的想要抓住使用兴奋剂的运动员,那么他们为什么不与世界上最大的反兴奋剂机构签约呢?世界反兴奋剂机构(WADA)是为了解决1998年环法自行车赛上发生的兴奋剂丑闻,由国际奥委会于1999年成立的。该机构的《守则》旨在极其严格和惩罚性,以适当地阻止运动员使用兴奋剂并影响比赛的公平性。他们严格的规则引起了许多运动员的愤怒,并涉及隐私问题,但仍然存在,管理着奥运会,国际体育比赛,甚至是美国反兴奋剂机构的终极格斗比赛。MLB、NBA和NFL不顾国会和世界反兴奋剂机构官员过去的压力,继续监督自己的运动员,并与球员工会集体谈判,制定既有效又少侵犯性的药物检测政策。集体谈判一直被《世界反兴奋剂机构条例》的支持者视为一个弱点;他们的论点是,集体谈判未能解决球员谈判“无牙”药物政策的动机,以及联盟确保其明星球员不卷入任何丑闻的动机。然而,这些担忧通常被夸大了,这将在下面进一步解释。本文认为,虽然美国体育联盟在适当打击兴奋剂方面确实有一些工作要做,但世界反兴奋剂机构的《条例》过于严厉,过于严厉,无法在美国体育运动中实施。就目前而言,美国体育联盟的政策已经足够了,不应该变得比现在更严厉。第一部分考察了美国职业棒球大联盟、NBA和NFL目前的反兴奋剂政策以及世界反兴奋剂机构准则。第二部分认为,由于WADA规则的缺陷,美国主要体育联盟采用WADA的规则来管理自己是不明智的,因为两者在有效性上的差异并不大到足以对美国运动员施加WADA限制,而且兴奋剂也没有大到足以证明其合理性的问题。第三部分建议,通过建立一个独立的机构,与每个体育项目的球员工会保持联系,在当前的美国体育联盟政策和WADA准则之间取得平衡,将有助于解决MLB、NBA和NFL所征收的一些问题,同时避免WADA准则过于惩罚性和侵入性的方面。本说明还将断言,在反兴奋剂斗争中争取赞助商可能会比现行制度更有效。
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引用次数: 0
The Uncopyrightability of Edicts of Government 政府法令的不可版权性
Pub Date : 2019-10-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3477564
Shyamkrishna Balganesh, Peter S. Menell
This amicus brief filed in the Supreme Court appeal of Georgia, et al., v. Public.Resource.Org., explores the interplay of copyright law and the edicts of government doctrine. The “edicts of government” doctrine was first validated by the U.S. Supreme Court in a series of nineteenth century cases. Wheaton v. Peters, 33 U.S. (8 Pet.) 591 (1834); Banks v. Manchester, 128 U.S. 244 (1888); Callaghan v. Meyers, 128 U.S. 617 (1888). While the doctrine has never been directly recognized in the express wording of the copyright statute, it is nevertheless firmly rooted in foundational copyright principles that are themselves reflected in the text of the statute. Three foundational copyright principles buttress the doctrine. First, copyrightable authorship does not extend to official announcements of law, the hallmark of edicts of government. Authorship as requires personalization, an attribute that is antithetical to official pronouncements of law, which are generated in an impersonal and ex officio manner. Second, all edicts of government, as legal texts, are methods of operation, rendering them uncopyrightable. Third, authentic statements of law entail the merger of idea and expression insofar as the expression underlying edicts of government are capable of being expressed in only a limited number of ways in order to preserve its authenticity. Consequently, the Official Code of Georgia (O.C.G.A.) is not copyrightable. Petitioners concede that the statutory content of the O.C.G.A. is uncopyrightable. The annotations incorporated into the O.C.G.A. by the state legislature bear the imprimatur of the state and are therefore produced under the ostensible authority of the state, which renders them an edict of government. Contrary to Petitioners’ argument, an edict does not need to have the force of law to qualify as an uncopyrightable edict of government. The Supreme Court’s precedents contradict this position. Instead, faithful reading of these precedents suggest that something becomes an uncopyrightable edict of government when it is produced under the ostensible authority of the state and thus receives a presumptively official status, owing to its endorsement by the state. The process by which the annotations contained in the O.C.G.A. are adopted and merged with the statutory content therein constitutes the exercise of such ostensible authority, rendering the O.C.G.A. an uncopyrightable edict of government.
本法庭之友摘要在乔治亚等人诉Public.Resource.Org最高法院上诉案中提交。,探讨了版权法和政府主义法令的相互作用。“政府法令”原则最初由美国最高法院在19世纪的一系列案件中证实。惠顿诉彼得斯案,33 U.S. (8 Pet.) 591 (1834);班克斯诉曼彻斯特案,128 U.S. 244 (1888);卡拉汉诉迈耶斯案,128 U.S. 617(1888)。虽然这一理论从未在版权法规的明确措辞中得到直接承认,但它仍然牢固地植根于基本的版权原则,这些原则本身也反映在法规的案文中。三个基本的版权原则支撑着这一理论。首先,受版权保护的作者身份并不适用于政府法令的标志——官方法律公告。作者身份需要个性化,这是一种与法律的官方声明相对立的属性,后者是以客观和当然的方式产生的。其次,所有政府法令作为法律文本,都是操作方法,因此不具有版权。第三,真正的法律陈述需要思想和表达的结合,因为作为政府法令基础的表达只能用有限的几种方式来表达,以保持其真实性。因此,《乔治亚州官方法典》(o.c.g.a)不具有版权。请愿者承认《O.C.G.A.》的法定内容不受版权保护。由州立法机关纳入《O.C.G.A.》的注释得到了该州的认可,因此是在该州的表面权威下制作的,这使它们成为政府的法令。与请愿人的论点相反,一项法令不需要具有法律效力就可以成为不受版权保护的政府法令。最高法院的判例与这一立场相矛盾。相反,对这些先例的忠实解读表明,当某种东西是在表面上的国家权威下产生的,并且由于得到国家的认可而获得推定的官方地位时,它就变成了不受版权保护的政府法令。O.C.G.A.所载的注释被采纳并与其中的法定内容合并的过程构成了这种表面上的权力的行使,使O.C.G.A.成为一项不受版权保护的政府法令。
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引用次数: 0
Be Careful What You Wish For: Ronald Reagan, Donald Trump, The Assault on Civil Rights, and The Surprising Story of How Title VII Got Its Private Right of Action 小心你的愿望:罗纳德·里根,唐纳德·特朗普,对公民权利的攻击,以及第七条如何获得私人行动权的惊人故事
Pub Date : 2019-04-25 DOI: 10.15779/Z385M6270B
D. Oppenheimer, Henry Cornillie, Henry B. Smith, T. Thai, Richard Treadwell
This essay reviews the impact of President Ronald Reagan’s policies on civil rights enforcement in the 1980s, as he tried to turn back the clock on civil rights. Reagan devastated the civil rights enforcement agencies, as he pandered to the white nationalists who helped him win election. But Reagan’s attempts ultimately failed, and leave behind an important lesson for President Donald Trump. Reagan’s appointments to and policies at the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), the Department of Justice’s Civil Rights Division, and the Department of Labor’s Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs (OFCCP) seriously damaged civil rights enforcement. But employment discrimination law has survived and continues to be an often-effective tool against racism, misogyny, homophobia, religious hatred, and other forms of discrimination. Title VII cases (and claims under parallel statutes) continue to be a major part of the caseload in federal courts. Why? Because the Civil Rights Act is largely enforced by private civil rights groups and lawyers in private practice who bring cases before independent judges pursuant to a private right of action. Did a progressive Congress have the foresight to recognize that a private right of action would protect the victims of discrimination from future administrations hostile to civil rights, and thus include it in the statute as a check against enforcement agencies captured by civil rights opponents? Hardly. Rather, moderate and conservative Senate Republicans, resigned to the fact that an employment discrimination law was inevitable, and fearful of a powerful federal agency that would restrict business autonomy in the manner of the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), substituted a private right of action for agency adjudication in an attempt to sabotage the effectiveness of Title VII. In 1964, the adoption of a private right of action was widely seen as a great loss for civil rights advocates, turning Title VII from an enforceable law to an ineffectual call for voluntary compliance with anti-discrimination policies. Almost no one foresaw the development of a private bar of plaintiffs’ employment discrimination lawyers. Those who tried to sabotage the enforcement of civil rights through a private right of action should be turning in their graves, having inadvertently given civil rights advocates a powerful tool to resist assaults on civil rights.
这篇文章回顾了罗纳德·里根总统在20世纪80年代对民权执行政策的影响,当时他试图让民权倒退。里根在迎合帮助他赢得选举的白人民族主义者时,摧毁了民权执法机构。但里根的尝试最终失败了,给唐纳德·特朗普总统留下了重要的一课。里根对平等就业机会委员会(EEOC)、司法部民权司和劳工部联邦合同合规项目办公室(OFCCP)的任命和政策严重损害了民权的执行。但就业歧视法幸存下来,并继续成为反对种族主义、厌女症、恐同症、宗教仇恨和其他形式歧视的有效工具。第七章案件(以及平行法规下的索赔)仍然是联邦法院案件负担的主要部分。为什么?因为《民权法案》在很大程度上是由私人民权团体和私人执业律师执行的,他们根据私人诉讼权利向独立法官提起诉讼。一个进步的国会是否有先见之明,认识到私人诉讼权将保护歧视的受害者免受未来敌视民权的政府的侵害,从而将其纳入法规,作为对民权反对者捕获的执法机构的制衡?几乎没有。相反,温和保守的参议院共和党人接受了就业歧视法不可避免的事实,并担心一个强大的联邦机构会像国家劳工关系委员会(NLRB)那样限制企业的自主权,他们用私人诉讼权取代了机构裁决,试图破坏第七章的有效性。1964年,私人诉讼权利的采纳被广泛认为是民权倡导者的巨大损失,将第七章从一项可执行的法律变成了一项无效的呼吁,要求人们自愿遵守反歧视政策。几乎没有人预见到原告就业歧视律师的私人酒吧的发展。那些试图通过私人诉讼权利来破坏公民权利执行的人应该在坟墓里翻来倒去,因为他们无意中给了民权倡导者一个强大的工具来抵抗对公民权利的攻击。
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引用次数: 1
Estimating Promotion Effects Using Big Data: A Partially Profiled LASSO Model With Endogeneity Correction 利用大数据估计促销效果:一个内生性校正的部分轮廓LASSO模型
Pub Date : 2018-11-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3289112
Luping Sun, Xiaona Zheng, Ying Jin, Minghua Jiang, Hansheng Wang
Retailers are interested in understanding which price promotions are profitable and which are not. However, simultaneously estimating the promotion effects of a large number of products on retailer sales and profits is technically challenging for both researchers and practitioners. To address this challenge, this study proposes a Partially Profiled Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (Partially Profiled LASSO) model, which can estimate ultra-high-dimensional regression relationships at a low computational cost and control for the endogeneity of promotion depth. The model can flexibly incorporate the time-varying promotion effects and the cross-over effects among the promotions of different products. We conduct an empirical study using data provided by a large retailer over a five-month period. Our model efficiently identifies products with promotion effects and the promotion effects are significantly associated with certain promotion, product, and category characteristics. The results also show that our model with cross-over effects outperforms the benchmark models that are widely used to handle the high-dimensional predictor matrix (e.g., the standard LASSO and principal component regression methods). This paper contributes to the related literature on price promotion and marketing analytics in data-rich environments, and provides implications for retailers to make more informed promotion strategies.
零售商感兴趣的是了解哪些价格促销有利可图,哪些没有。然而,同时估计大量产品对零售商销售和利润的促进作用对研究人员和实践者来说都是技术上的挑战。为了解决这一挑战,本研究提出了一个部分轮廓最小绝对收缩和选择算子(部分轮廓LASSO)模型,该模型可以以较低的计算成本估计超高维回归关系,并控制推广深度的内生性。该模型可以灵活地考虑时变促销效果和不同产品促销之间的交叉效应。我们使用一家大型零售商在5个月期间提供的数据进行了实证研究。我们的模型有效地识别出具有促销效果的产品,并且促销效果与特定的促销、产品和品类特征显著相关。结果还表明,我们的交叉效应模型优于广泛用于处理高维预测矩阵的基准模型(例如,标准LASSO和主成分回归方法)。本文对数据丰富环境下价格促销和营销分析的相关文献有所贡献,并为零售商制定更明智的促销策略提供启示。
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引用次数: 4
The Magic of Danmaku: A Social Interaction Perspective of Gift Sending on Live Streaming Platforms 弹幕的魔力:直播平台送礼的社会互动视角
Pub Date : 2018-11-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3289119
Jilei Zhou, Jing Zhou, Ying Ding, Hansheng Wang
Abstract A novel function of live streaming is that viewers can send paid gifts to broadcasters. In addition, viewers can engage with broadcasters by sending danmaku, a type of comment scrolled across the screen in real time. This paper investigates the role of viewers’ social interaction in paid gifting on live streaming platforms. We argue that viewer-viewer interaction can prompt paid gifting by affecting viewers’ arousal level through stimuli extracted from danmaku. Types of danmaku-related stimuli are presence of others, social competition, and emotional stimuli. Specifically, presence of others is measured by total number of words; social competition by debate level; and emotional stimuli by similarity of danmaku, number of excitement-related words, and number of emoji. Using data from a major live streaming platform in China, empirical results show that except for number of emoji, the other four variables positively affect paid gifting.
直播的一个新颖功能是观众可以向主播赠送付费礼物。此外,观众还可以通过发送danmaku(一种实时滚动在屏幕上的评论)与广播公司互动。本文研究了观众社交互动在直播平台付费赠送中的作用。我们认为,观看者与观看者的互动可以通过从弹幕中提取的刺激来影响观看者的唤醒水平,从而促进付费赠送。与弹舞相关的刺激类型有他人的存在、社会竞争和情绪刺激。具体来说,其他人的存在是通过总字数来衡量的;辩论水平的社会竞争;以及情感刺激的相似度,与兴奋相关的单词数量和表情符号的数量。利用中国某大型直播平台的数据,实证结果表明,除了表情符号的数量外,其他四个变量都对付费送礼有积极影响。
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引用次数: 112
Establishing of Supreme Court Benches across India: Discussion on Feasibility and Impact 在印度建立最高法院席位:可行性和影响的讨论
Pub Date : 2018-09-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3249783
Kartik Hegadekatti
Indian judiciary has been one of the finest examples of justice dispensed without fear or favour. Ever since judicial standards were codified and the Indian judiciary set up (by the British), it has proved itself worthy of admiration, adoration and appreciation. The Indian judiciary has stepped in to help the people get justice whenever and wherever possible. The Indian judiciary has been a pioneer of judicial innovations and reforms, Public interest Litigations (PIL) being a case in point. Recently, due to a number of reasons, dispensation of justice in India has become difficult leading to the situation 'justice delayed is justice denied'. This paper deals with establishing of Jurisdictional Supreme Court Benches across India and its possible impact on the dispensation of Justice.
印度司法系统是公正无私的典范之一。自从司法标准被编纂和印度司法体系(由英国人)建立以来,它已经证明自己值得钦佩、崇拜和欣赏。印度司法部门已经介入,随时随地帮助人民伸张正义。印度司法部门一直是司法创新和改革的先驱,公益诉讼(PIL)就是一个很好的例子。最近,由于种种原因,印度的司法分配变得困难,导致了“正义延迟就是正义被剥夺”的局面。本文涉及在印度各地建立司法管辖的最高法院席位及其对司法分配的可能影响。
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引用次数: 0
Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometer (GC/MS): In Scientific Evidence, Even 'Gold Standard' Techniques Have Limitations 气相色谱-质谱(GC/MS):在科学证据中,即使是“金标准”技术也有局限性
Pub Date : 2018-09-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3245423
J. Gin, E. Imwinkelried
There is an emerging view that there are two types of forensic science: “junk” science such as forensic odontology (bitemark analysis) and “real” science such as nuclear DNA typing. The 2009 National Research Council report contributed to the emergence of this view. On the one hand, the report was sharply critical of techniques such as bitemark analysis. On the other hand, the report had high praise for techniques such as the DNA typing identification technique and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) as an elemental analysis methodology. The courts are becoming increasingly skeptical about “junk” science techniques. In some instances, they are excluding testimony based on such techniques. In other cases, they are severely restricting the wording of the opinions based on such techniques that experts may testify to. However, in the case of “real” science, the courts tend to assume reliability. In particular, the courts have come to view nuclear DNA typing and GC/MS analysis as the “gold standards” of forensic science. The courts routinely admit testimony about nuclear DNA typing, and one court has gone to the length of declaring that GC/MS analysis is “nearly infallible.” However, the 2016 President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology report raised questions about one “gold standard,” DNA analysis. The PCAST report questioned the validity of the traditional methods of analyzing mixed DNA samples. The report faulted those methods as unduly subjective. In addition, many commentators have challenged the validity of Low Copy Number (LCN) testing of minute or “touch” DNA samples. Although the New York have admitted testimony about LCN analysis, many other courts have barred such testimony. The thesis of this article is that like nuclear DNA testing, GC/MS analysis has important limitations. The article explains that when GC/MS is used in drug testing, the court must inquire as to the mode of analysis: full scan, selective ion reliance, or selective ion monitoring. The article adds that when GC/MS is employed to identify ignitable liquids in arson investigations, the court should inquire as to the condition of the sample tested: Has it been subjected to weathering, microbial degradation, or pyrolysis? It is certainly justifiable to subject “junk” science to more intense scrutiny. However, the courts should not naively assume that GC/MS is “nearly infallible.” In forensic science, even “gold standard” techniques have significant limitations.
有一种新兴的观点认为,有两种类型的法医科学:“垃圾”科学,如法医牙科学(咬痕分析)和“真正的”科学,如核DNA分型。2009年国家研究委员会的报告促成了这一观点的出现。一方面,报告对咬痕分析等技术提出了尖锐的批评。另一方面,该报告高度赞扬了DNA分型鉴定技术和气相色谱/质谱(GC/MS)等技术作为元素分析方法。法院对“垃圾”科学技术越来越持怀疑态度。在某些情况下,他们排除了基于这种技术的证词。在其他情况下,他们严格限制专家可能作证的基于这种技术的意见的措辞。然而,在“真正的”科学的情况下,法院倾向于假设其可靠性。特别是,法院已经开始将核DNA分型和GC/MS分析视为法医学的“黄金标准”。法院通常会接受有关核DNA分型的证词,有一家法院甚至宣称GC/MS分析“几乎是绝对可靠的”。然而,2016年总统科学技术顾问委员会的报告对DNA分析这一“黄金标准”提出了质疑。PCAST的报告对分析混合DNA样本的传统方法的有效性提出了质疑。报告指责这些方法过于主观。此外,许多评论家质疑低拷贝数(LCN)检测微小或“触摸”DNA样本的有效性。尽管纽约法院承认了有关LCN分析的证词,但许多其他法院禁止此类证词。本文的论点是,与核DNA检测一样,GC/MS分析具有重要的局限性。文章解释了当GC/MS用于药物检测时,法院必须询问分析模式:全扫描,选择性离子依赖,还是选择性离子监测。文章补充说,当GC/MS在纵火案调查中用于鉴定可燃液体时,法院应询问被测样品的状况:它是否经受了风化、微生物降解或热解?对“垃圾”科学进行更严格的审查当然是合理的。然而,法院不应该天真地认为GC/MS“几乎是绝对可靠的”。在法医科学中,即使是“黄金标准”技术也有明显的局限性。
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引用次数: 2
Network Imputation for a Spatial Autoregression Model with Incomplete Data 不完全数据空间自回归模型的网络插值
Pub Date : 2018-09-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3249837
Zhimeng Sun, Hansheng Wang
Researchers typically encounter missing data in practice and have developed various imputation methods. However, the existing methods are mainly developed for independent data and the assumption of independence disregards the connections of units through various social relationships (e.g., friendship, follower-followee relationship). In fact, the observed responses from connected friends should provide valuable information for missing responses. This factor motivates us to conduct imputation in this paper by borrowing information from connected friends using a network structure. With the missing at random assumption and using observed information only, we propose a partial likelihood approach and develop the corresponding maximum partial likelihood estimator (MPLE). The estimator’s consistency and asymptotic normality are established. Using the MPLE, we then develop a novel regression imputation method. The method utilizes both auxiliary information and connected complete units (i.e., network information); using the imputed data, we can compute the sample mean of the responses. We show this method to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Compared with the imputation method using auxiliary information only (i.e., ignoring network information), the proposed estimator is statistically more efficient. Extensive simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate its finite sample performance. We then analyze a real example about QQ in mainland China for illustration.
研究人员在实践中经常遇到数据缺失的问题,并开发了各种各样的imputation方法。然而,现有的方法主要是针对独立数据开发的,并且独立性假设忽略了通过各种社会关系(如友谊,追随者-追随者关系)建立单位之间的联系。事实上,观察到的来自好友的回应应该能为缺失的回应提供有价值的信息。这一因素促使我们在本文中通过网络结构从有联系的朋友那里借用信息来进行推测。在随机缺失假设和仅使用观测信息的情况下,我们提出了一种部分似然方法,并开发了相应的最大部分似然估计量(MPLE)。建立了估计量的相合性和渐近正态性。在此基础上,提出了一种新的回归归算方法。该方法既利用辅助信息,又利用连通的完整单元(即网络信息);利用输入的数据,我们可以计算出响应的样本均值。我们证明了这种方法是一致的和渐近正态的。与仅使用辅助信息(即忽略网络信息)的估计方法相比,该估计方法在统计上效率更高。大量的仿真研究证明了它的有限样本性能。然后,我们分析了中国大陆QQ的一个真实例子来说明。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
University of California, Davis law review
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