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Uncertainty 不确定性
Pub Date : 2010-02-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1555343
D. Farber
Many of the pressing policy issues facing us today require confronting the unknown and making difficult choices in the face of limited information. Economists distinguish between “uncertainty�? (where the likelihood of the peril is non-quantifiable) and “risk�? (where the likelihood is quantifiable). Uncertainty is particularly pernicious in situations where catastrophic outcomes are possible, but conventional decision tools are not equipped to cope with these potentially disastrous results. This Article describes new analytic tools for assessing potential catastrophic outcomes and applies them to some key policy issues: controlling greenhouse gases, adapting to unavoidable climate change, regulating nanotechnology, dealing with long-lived nuclear wastes, and controlling financial instability. More specifically, economic modeling and policy analysis are often based on the assumption that extreme harms are highly unlikely, in the technical sense that the “tail�? of the probability distributions is “thin�? – in other words, that it approaches rapidly to zero. Thin tails allow extreme risks to be given relatively little weight. A growing body of research, however, focuses on the possibility of fat tails, which are common in systems with feedback between different components. As it turns out, fat tails and uncertainty often go together. Economic theories of “ambiguity�? deal at a more general level with situations where multiple plausible models of reality confront a decision maker. Ambiguity theories are useful in considering systems with fat tails and in other situations where the probabilities are simply difficult to quantify. The Article considers both the policy implications of fat tails and the use of ambiguity theories such as α-maxmin.
我们今天面临的许多紧迫的政策问题需要面对未知,在有限的信息面前做出艰难的选择。经济学家区分“不确定性”和“不确定性”。(其中危险的可能性是无法量化的)和“风险”?(可能性是可量化的)。在可能出现灾难性结果的情况下,不确定性尤其有害,但传统的决策工具无法应对这些潜在的灾难性结果。本文描述了评估潜在灾难性结果的新分析工具,并将它们应用于一些关键政策问题:控制温室气体、适应不可避免的气候变化、调节纳米技术、处理长寿命核废料和控制金融不稳定。更具体地说,经济建模和政策分析往往基于极端危害极不可能发生的假设,从技术意义上说,“尾巴”?概率分布的“薄”?换句话说,它迅速接近于零。细尾使得极端风险相对较小。然而,越来越多的研究集中在肥尾的可能性上,这在不同组件之间有反馈的系统中很常见。事实证明,肥尾和不确定性往往相伴而生。“模糊性”的经济理论?在更一般的层面上处理决策者所面临的多种现实模型。歧义理论在考虑有粗尾的系统和其他难以量化概率的情况下是有用的。本文考虑了肥尾的政策含义和模糊理论(如α-maxmin)的使用。
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引用次数: 3
How You Gonna‘ Keep Her Down on the Farm . . . 你要怎么把她留在农场…
Pub Date : 2010-01-22 DOI: 10.1021/cen-v030n008.p762
Lisa R. Pruitt
This is a contribution to a collection of autobiographical essays, “One-L Revisited,” in which authors reflect on their experiences as first-year law students. The author of this essay recounts her experiences at the University of Arkansas School of Law (1986-87). She frames her recollections primarily in relation to her rural, working-class background and her later-acquired feminist politics.
本文是自传体散文集《One-L Revisited》的一部分,作者在其中回顾了他们作为法学院一年级学生的经历。这篇文章的作者叙述了她在阿肯色大学法学院(1986-87)的经历。她的回忆主要与她的农村工人阶级背景和后来获得的女权主义政治有关。
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引用次数: 3
Designing Information and Entertainment-Oriented Publications: Balancing Advertising and Programming Content 设计信息和娱乐导向的出版物:平衡广告和节目内容
Pub Date : 2009-03-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1381005
H. Bhargava, Juan Feng
Advertising is an important revenue source for many publishers of information and entertainment-oriented good and services on the Internet, television, and print media. The publication design must balance the revenue opportunity from advertising with its impact on consumers' perception of the publisher. We study a publisher's optimal strategy when viewers' attitude towards advertising friendly or hostile - varies along the amount of advertising and on the publisher's programming quality. The publisher's program quality impacts how much flexibility it has in balancing advertising revenues with making the best product for its subscribers. Among competing publishers, the one with higher programming quality, or larger consumer base, has more flexibility in setting its advertising level. Regulation that limits publishers' advertising levels is not necessarily in the subscribers' interest: even a monopoly publisher may offer too little advertising relative to the consumer ideal; this can happen when advertising enhances the consumer experience but is too costly to attract. We explain how the potential to generate non-advertising revenues from subscribers affects the publisher's advertising level, and how it might cause variation in advertising levels among publishers who experience the same consumer attitude towards advertising.
广告是互联网、电视和印刷媒体上许多信息和娱乐导向的商品和服务的出版商的重要收入来源。出版物设计必须平衡广告带来的收入机会及其对消费者对出版商的看法的影响。我们研究了当观众对广告的态度是友好的还是敌对的——随着广告的数量和出版商的节目质量而变化时,出版商的最佳策略。出版商的节目质量影响着它在平衡广告收入与为订阅者制作最佳产品之间的灵活性。在相互竞争的出版商中,节目质量更高或消费者基础更大的出版商在设定广告水平方面具有更大的灵活性。限制出版商广告水平的规定不一定符合订户的利益:即使是垄断出版商也可能提供的广告相对于消费者的理想而言太少;当广告增强了消费者体验,但成本太高而无法吸引时,这种情况就会发生。我们解释了从订阅者那里产生非广告收入的潜力如何影响出版商的广告水平,以及它如何导致具有相同消费者对广告态度的出版商之间广告水平的差异。
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引用次数: 1
Judicial Resistance to Copyright Law's Inalienable Right to Terminate Transfers 著作权法不可剥夺终止转让权的司法阻力
Pub Date : 2009-03-10 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1355678
Peter S. Menell, D. Nimmer
For a century, Congress has sought to protect authors and their families by allowing them to grant their copyrights for exploitation and then, decades later, recapture those same rights. After judicial interpretation of the 1909 Act frustrated this intent, Congress spoke unambiguously in 1976: Termination of the grant may be effected notwithstanding any agreement to the contrary . . . . 17 U.S.C. Section 304(c)(5). Yet, in Penguin Group (USA) Inc. v. Steinbeck, 537 F.3d 193 (2d Cir. 2008), the Second Circuit eviscerated that clear Congressional command by enabling a grantee to renegotiate the terms of the grant so as to frustrate recapture by the author's family. This ruling follows a Ninth Circuit decision similarly allowing a grantee to go through the charade of rescinding and regranting a copyright license for the express purpose of blocking the author's family members from exercising their statutory termination rights. Milne v. Stephen Slesinger, Inc., 430 F.3d 1036, 1046 (9th Cir. 2005). Notwithstanding the unequivocal meaning of the word any in Section 304(c)(5), explicated unmistakably in the legislative history, these decisions invite grantees to engage in all manner of opportunistic behavior to frustrate Congress' clearly expressed language and intent. In this amicus brief supporting grant of certiorari by the Supreme Court in the Steinbeck case, the authors argue that the Court can restore the intergenerational equity that Congress legislated and remove the cloud now hanging over innumerable copyrighted works.
一个世纪以来,国会一直试图保护作者及其家人,允许他们授予版权,允许他们在几十年后重新获得同样的权利。在1909年法案的司法解释挫败了这一意图之后,国会在1976年明确表示:即使有任何相反的协议,也可以终止授予. . . .17 U.S.C.第304(c)(5)条。然而,在企鹅集团(美国)公司诉斯坦贝克案(537 F.3d . 193)(2008年第2巡回法院)中,第二巡回法院通过允许受让人重新谈判授予条款,以挫败提交人家人的重新抓捕,从而剥夺了这一明确的国会命令。在此之前,第九巡回法院的一项裁决同样允许受让人通过取消和重新授予版权许可的把戏,以阻止作者的家庭成员行使其法定的终止权。Milne诉Stephen Slesinger, Inc., 430 F.3d 1036,1046(2005年9月)。尽管“任何”一词在第304(c)(5)条中有明确的含义,在立法历史中也有明确的解释,但这些决定邀请受让人从事各种机会主义行为,以挫败国会明确表达的语言和意图。在这份支持最高法院在斯坦贝克案中批准调卷令的法庭之友摘要中,作者认为,最高法院可以恢复国会立法的代际公平,并消除目前笼罩在无数版权作品上的阴云。
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引用次数: 3
Artere Urbane: Tre Diversi Esperimenti Nelle Citta Americane (Urban Freeway Decisions: Different Outcomes and Explanations in Three American Cities) 城市高速公路决策:三个美国城市的不同结果与解释
Pub Date : 2009-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2037562
J. Dimento
Using three case studies, Syracuse New York, Memphis Tennessee and, Interstate 105 in Los Angeles, I trace the changing regulatory environment for decision-making on interstate highway construction within inner cities in the United States. Syracuse saw construction before the evolution of a modern environmental, historical, transportation and housing law; in Memphis the freeway was stopped by citizen actions resulting in judicial interpretations of federal highway law; and the Los Angeles resolution was molded by a consent decree entered after a law suit brought by a new public interest law firm.
通过三个案例研究,纽约锡拉丘兹、田纳西州孟菲斯和洛杉矶105号州际公路,我追踪了美国内城州际公路建设决策的不断变化的监管环境。锡拉丘兹在现代环境、历史、交通和住房法发展之前就开始建设了;在孟菲斯,高速公路因公民行动而停止,导致联邦公路法的司法解释;洛杉矶的决议是由一家新成立的公益律师事务所提起诉讼后达成的一项同意令形成的。
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引用次数: 0
Drug Use and Drug Policy in a Prohibition Regime 禁酒令下的毒品使用和毒品政策
Pub Date : 2008-04-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1118460
R. MacCoun, Karin D. Martin
Psychoactive drugs are an especially rich topic for criminological scholarship. The topic is inherently multidisciplinary, involving neuroscience, psychology, cultural anthropology, history, microeconomics, and moral philosophy. And drug policy instruments extend beyond the usual arsenal (special and general deterrence, incapacitation, rehabilitation, retribution, and persuasion) to include social work, medicine, psychotherapy, social support groups, drug maintenance clinics, and mass media campaigns. In order to cover such a vast topic in a limited space, it is necessary to be selective, making some general observations and pointing the reader to good secondary sources. We focus primarily on the currently illicit psychoactives, giving little attention to alcohol or tobacco. We trust that every educated reader will be familiar with the arguments for analyzing licits and illicits together, and we assure skeptics that we will not neglect the core question of how prohibition shapes drug behavior and drug outcomes.
精神药物是犯罪学研究的一个特别丰富的课题。这个话题本质上是多学科的,涉及神经科学、心理学、文化人类学、历史、微观经济学和道德哲学。毒品政策手段也超出了通常的武库(特殊和一般威慑、丧失行为能力、康复、惩罚和说服),包括社会工作、医学、心理治疗、社会支持团体、药物维持诊所和大众媒体运动。为了在有限的篇幅内涵盖如此广泛的主题,有必要有所选择,做一些一般性的观察,并向读者指出好的二手资料。我们主要关注目前非法的精神药物,很少关注酒精或烟草。我们相信,每个受过教育的读者都熟悉将合法和非法毒品放在一起分析的论点,我们向怀疑论者保证,我们不会忽视禁令如何影响毒品行为和毒品后果的核心问题。
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引用次数: 0
Urban sensing: out of the woods 城市感知:走出困境
Pub Date : 2008-03-01 DOI: 10.1145/1325555.1325562
D. Cuff, Mark H. Hansen, Jerry Kang
Embedded networked sensing, having successfully shifted from the lab to the environment, is primed for a more contentious move to the city to where citizens will likely be the target of data collection. This transition will warrant careful study and touch on issues that go far beyond the scientific realm.
嵌入式网络传感技术已经成功地从实验室转移到了环境中,它将面临更具争议性的向城市的转移,在城市中,市民很可能成为数据收集的目标。这种转变需要仔细研究,并涉及远远超出科学领域的问题。
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引用次数: 335
Response: Thoughts on Treating Union Representation Processes as a Market in Need of Legally Required Disclosure of Information 回应:关于将工会代表程序视为需要法律要求的信息披露的市场的思考
Pub Date : 2008-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2042282
Catherine L. Fisk
In response to Matthew T. Bodie’s article, “Information and the Market for Union Representation,” 94 Va. L. Rev. 1 (2008), this brief article considers the wisdom of treating union representation processes as a market in which disclosure of information should be mandated. This article examines the implication of Bodie’s metaphor that the decision to choose a union is like a decision to purchase services in the market. Via this metaphor, Bodie’s approach requires that we imagine the employer as the “anti-seller,” an entity that considers a consumer not buying an item to be in its economic interest. In most areas of law in which a consumer purchases goods or services, the law obligates the seller to disclose. Labor law, however, involves two components in the provision of information: access and accuracy. Depending on whether one thinks the main problem with the market for union services is inequality of access or misleading information, one might propose different legal reforms. One difficulty in designing appropriate legal rules to address whatever information problems exist in union representation elections is that the reasons for the information problems in union organizing are different than the usual ones. While Professor Bodie does an admirable job of explaining why information matters, the problem will not significantly improve unless the status quo of misleading and one-sided information is rectified.
为了回应Matthew T. Bodie的文章,“信息和工会代表的市场”,94 Va. L. Rev. 1(2008),这篇简短的文章考虑了将工会代表过程视为一个信息披露应该被强制执行的市场的智慧。本文考察了Bodie的比喻的含义,即选择工会的决定就像在市场上购买服务的决定。通过这个比喻,Bodie的方法要求我们把雇主想象成“反卖家”,一个认为消费者不购买商品符合其经济利益的实体。在消费者购买商品或服务的大多数法律领域,法律规定卖方有义务披露。然而,劳动法涉及信息提供的两个组成部分:获取和准确性。根据人们认为工会服务市场的主要问题是准入不平等还是误导性信息,人们可能会提出不同的法律改革。设计适当的法律规则来解决工会代表选举中存在的任何信息问题的一个困难是,工会组织中出现信息问题的原因与通常的原因不同。虽然博迪教授在解释为什么信息很重要方面做得令人钦佩,但除非纠正误导性和片面信息的现状,否则这个问题不会得到显著改善。
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引用次数: 0
The Importance of Resource Allocation in Administrative Law: A Case Study of Judicial Review of Agency Inaction under the Administrative Procedure Act 资源配置在行政法中的重要性——以《行政诉讼法》下机关不作为的司法审查为例
Pub Date : 2007-04-21 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.981941
Eric Biber
The Supreme Court's landmark decision in Massachusetts v. EPA requiring the federal government to reconsider its refusal to regulate greenhouse gases as an air pollutant is only the most recent example of judicial review of an agency's decision not to take a regulatory action. Despite the importance of this type of judicial review, it has received little analysis by scholars, and the caselaw in the field is confused. Accordingly, there are serious questions about the nature and scope of judicial review of agency decisions not to act - with some scholars and leading judges calling for sharply limiting this type of judicial review to protect "individual liberty." This paper examines an alternative set of principles to guide judicial review of agency decisions not to regulate - a trade-off between judicial deference to agency decisions as to how to allocate their resources and judicial enforcement of clear Congressional commands to agencies. This framework provides guidance for understanding how and why courts should be intervening in situations where agencies have refused to act. Moreover, the trade-off helps explain both varying levels of judicial deference outside the context of judicial review of agency inaction and why the Court has found some agency decisions reviewable and others unreviewable - including the Court's decision in Massachusetts v. EPA that agency refusals to regulate are reviewable. Finally, when courts strike the proper balance between judicial deference to agency resource allocation and enforcement of clear Congressional commands they will be able to counteract public choice failures in the implementation of regulatory programs.
最高法院在马萨诸塞州诉环境保护局一案中作出的具有里程碑意义的裁决要求联邦政府重新考虑其拒绝将温室气体作为空气污染物进行监管的决定,这只是司法审查机构决定不采取监管行动的最新例子。尽管这种类型的司法审查很重要,但学者们对其进行的分析很少,该领域的判例法也很混乱。因此,对行政机关不采取行动决定的司法审查的性质和范围存在严重的问题——一些学者和主要法官呼吁严格限制这种类型的司法审查,以保护“个人自由”。本文考察了一套可供选择的原则,以指导对机构决定的司法审查,而不是对其进行管制——这是在司法尊重机构关于如何分配其资源的决定与司法执行明确的国会命令给机构之间的权衡。这一框架为理解法院应如何以及为什么在机构拒绝采取行动的情况下进行干预提供了指导。此外,这种权衡有助于解释在司法审查机构不作为的背景之外的不同程度的司法尊重,以及为什么法院发现一些机构的决定可以审查,而另一些则不可审查——包括法院在马萨诸塞州诉环境保护局一案中的裁决,即机构拒绝监管是可以审查的。最后,当法院在司法服从机构资源分配和执行明确的国会命令之间取得适当的平衡时,他们将能够在实施监管计划时抵消公共选择的失败。
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引用次数: 13
Bankruptcy Treatment of Intellectual Property Assets: An Economic Analysis 知识产权资产的破产处理:一个经济学分析
Pub Date : 2007-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.969521
Peter S. Menell
With the rise of intellectual property in the modern economy, bankruptcy treatment of intellectual property assets has taken on ever greater importance. The law in this area must balance different approaches to asset management. Viewing the world from an ex ante perspective, intellectual property laws seek to foster investment in research and development. Freedom of contract plays a central role in maximizing the potential value of intellectual property by encouraging a robust licensing market to exploit the value of intellectual creativity. By contrast, the bankruptcy system generally views asset management from an ex post standpoint, focusing narrowly on how to maximize the value of a failing or failed enterprise. Thus, bankruptcy law affords trustees and debtors substantial leeway to rescind contracts and reorder the affairs of the failed entity. This article examines the rather complex rules governing the treatment of intellectual property assets in bankruptcy and suggests various reforms that could better promote economic efficiency.
随着现代经济中知识产权的兴起,知识产权资产的破产处理显得越来越重要。该领域的法律必须平衡不同的资产管理方法。从事前的角度看世界,知识产权法寻求促进对研发的投资。合同自由通过鼓励一个健全的许可市场来开发智力创造的价值,在使知识产权的潜在价值最大化方面发挥着核心作用。相比之下,破产制度通常从事后的角度看待资产管理,狭隘地关注如何使失败或倒闭的企业价值最大化。因此,破产法为受托人和债务人解除合同和重新安排破产实体的事务提供了很大的余地。本文考察了管理破产中知识产权资产处理的相当复杂的规则,并提出了可以更好地提高经济效率的各种改革建议。
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引用次数: 13
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University of California, Davis law review
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