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Special Issue on FinTech and Related Issue 金融科技特刊及相关问题
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-04-26 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12473
Hyun-Soo Choi
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引用次数: 0
The Voice of Risk: Wall Street CEOs' Voice Pitch and the 2008 Financial Crisis* 风险之声:华尔街首席执行官的嗓音音调与 2008 年金融危机*
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-04-17 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12471
Andy Kim, Min Jung Kang, Sijia Cao, Soohyun Park

The pitch of a male voice is an honest signal of his threat potential coming from testosterone. Recognizing endogenous matches between firms and CEOs, we propose to use voice pitch of the CEO as a proxy for the unobservable risk-taking strategy of the firm. Using digitally analyzed male CEO voice pitch in 167 CNBC interviews during the 2008 global financial crisis, we find that deep-voiced Wall Street CEOs (i) managed riskier firms, (ii) received more equity-based compensation before the crisis and (iii) were more likely to be fired after the crisis, controlling for economic incentives, overconfidence, and narcissism.

男性声音的高低是其威胁潜力的真实信号,来自睾丸激素。考虑到公司与首席执行官之间的内生匹配,我们建议使用首席执行官的音调作为公司不可观测的风险承担战略的替代物。通过对 2008 年全球金融危机期间 167 个 CNBC 访谈中男性首席执行官的声调进行数字分析,我们发现,在控制经济激励、过度自信和自恋的情况下,声音低沉的华尔街首席执行官(i)管理的公司风险更高,(ii)在危机前获得的股权报酬更多,(iii)在危机后被解雇的可能性更大。
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引用次数: 0
Employee Characteristics and Corporate Risk-Taking: Focusing on Tenure 员工特征与公司风险承担:关注任期
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-04-09 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12465
Hyungjin Cho, Sera Choi, Dae-Hyun Kwon

This study investigates whether employee characteristics are associated with corporate risk-taking activities. The analysis shows that employee tenure is negatively associated with corporate risk-taking. This association remains robust to the instrumental variable approach and propensity score matching method. Furthermore, the negative relation between employee tenure and corporate risk is stronger for firms offering lower wages and for more labor-intensive firms. Overall, this study highlights the importance of considering the interaction between managers and stakeholders such as employees when understanding corporate risk-taking.

本研究探讨了员工特征是否与企业冒险活动相关。分析表明,员工任期与企业风险承担负相关。这种关联在使用工具变量法和倾向得分匹配法时仍然是稳健的。此外,工资较低的企业和劳动密集型企业的员工任期与企业风险之间的负相关关系更强。总之,本研究强调了在理解企业风险承担时考虑管理者与员工等利益相关者之间互动的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Does the Textual Tone of Analyst Reports Have Valuable Information? Korean Evidence* 分析师报告的文字语调是否包含有价值的信息?韩国的证据*
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12469
Su-Ji Cho, Ki-Kwang Lee, Cheol-Won Yang

We investigate whether the text of analyst reports can provide additional information beyond the recommendation and target price. Positive and negative word lexicons are generated through an automated Bayesian learning method applied to Korean analyst reports spanning from 2016 to 2018. Then, the textual tone of an analyst report is quantified as the difference between the frequencies of positive and negative words in the text. The announcement returns of portfolios sorted by textual tone exhibit significant differences ranging from 1.14% to 2.82% within the same recommendation or target price revision group. Regression analysis also reveals significant association between the textual tone of analyst reports and stock announcement returns, even when controlling for the recommendation and target price. Notably, the text proves to be more informative in negative tones and within firms with limited analyst coverage. Our results indicate that textual analysis can unveil nuanced analyst opinions not captured by numerical information.

我们研究了分析师报告的文本是否能提供建议和目标价格之外的额外信息。通过应用于 2016 年至 2018 年韩国分析师报告的自动贝叶斯学习方法,生成了正面和负面词汇词典。然后,将分析师报告的文本基调量化为文本中积极词和消极词频率的差异。按文本语气排序的投资组合的公告收益率在同一建议或目标价修正组内呈现出 1.14% 至 2.82% 的显著差异。回归分析还显示,即使控制了推荐值和目标价,分析师报告的文字基调与股票公告收益率之间也存在显著关联。值得注意的是,在分析师覆盖范围有限的公司中,负面语气的文本信息量更大。我们的研究结果表明,文本分析可以揭示数字信息无法捕捉到的细微的分析师观点。
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引用次数: 0
Innovation in Financial Inclusion Policies with Digital Transformation: Evidence from South Korea* 数字转型下的普惠金融政策创新:来自韩国的证据*
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12467
Kiwoong Byun, Jusung Hong, Baeho Kim, Jehyun Park

This study aims to provide economic insights to enhance the implementation of financial inclusion policies by advancing credit analytics through financial digital transformation. To this end, we examine whether integrating financial analytics innovation with large-scale financial data can boost the effectiveness of financial inclusion policies and ultimately contribute to better economic outcomes for financially vulnerable individuals. According to our analysis, the government funding program of KRW 200 billion (approximately USD 155 million) can potentially assist an additional 46.56% of financially excluded individuals in South Korea who struggle to obtain loans due to their current credit ratings.

本研究旨在提供经济学见解,通过金融数字化转型推进信用分析,从而加强普惠金融政策的实施。为此,我们研究了将金融分析创新与大规模金融数据相结合能否提高普惠金融政策的有效性,并最终为金融弱势群体带来更好的经济成果。根据我们的分析,2000 亿韩元(约合 1.55 亿美元)的政府资助计划有可能为韩国另外 46.56% 的被金融排斥的个人提供帮助,这些人由于目前的信用评级而难以获得贷款。
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引用次数: 0
Do Interactions Between Investors and Management Result in More Conservative Accounting Information?* 投资者与管理层之间的互动是否会导致会计信息更加保守?
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12468
Yaoyao Li, Tianmei Wang, Yang Zhao

Within the context of the investor–management interaction platforms “E-Interaction” and “Interaction Easy,” this paper investigates the influence of investor and management interaction on accounting conservatism and explores the strategic response behavior of management. The findings indicate that both the intensity and depth of investor inquiries contribute to the enhancement of accounting conservatism. Moreover, compared to “template” responses, management's “targeted” responses to investors significantly increase the accounting conservatism of companies. Mechanism tests reveal that investor–management interaction, by enhancing investor monitoring capabilities and increasing the litigation and reputational risks faced by companies, subsequently enhances the accounting conservatism of companies. Further analysis shows that in cases where companies are audited by non-Big Four auditor and have lower analyst coverage, indicating a weaker external information environment, investor–management interaction can yield better governance effects.

本文以 "E互动 "和 "互动易 "投资者与管理层互动平台为背景,研究了投资者与管理层互动对会计保守主义的影响,并探讨了管理层的战略应对行为。研究结果表明,投资者询问的强度和深度都有助于提高会计保守主义。此外,与 "模板式 "回应相比,管理层对投资者的 "针对性 "回应能显著提高公司的会计保守性。机制测试表明,投资者与管理层的互动,通过增强投资者的监督能力,增加了公司面临的诉讼和声誉风险,从而增强了公司的会计稳健性。进一步的分析表明,如果公司由非四大审计师审计,分析师覆盖率较低,表明外部信息环境较弱,那么投资者与管理层的互动会产生更好的治理效果。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding Corporate Bond Defaults in Korea Using Machine Learning Models* 利用机器学习模型了解韩国的公司债券违约情况*
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12470
Dojoon Park, Jun Kyung Auh, Giwan Song, Young Ho Eom

We investigate corporate bond defaults from 1995 to 2020 using hand-collected data from hard-copy publications in Korea. Using an under-sampling method, we construct default prediction models based on machine learning models as well as a logistic model. The empirical results show that the random forest model outperforms the others. However, regardless of the models used, model performance in financial crisis periods is significantly worse than it is in non-crisis periods. This finding suggests the need for additional information to improve model performance during crises when the default prediction is the most relevant. Furthermore, the dominant predictor of defaults before the global financial crisis was the debt ratio, while subsequently, the coverage ratio has become the most important predictor.

我们利用从韩国硬拷贝出版物中手工收集的数据,调查了 1995 年至 2020 年的公司债券违约情况。我们使用抽样不足法,构建了基于机器学习模型和逻辑模型的违约预测模型。实证结果表明,随机森林模型优于其他模型。然而,无论使用哪种模型,金融危机时期的模型性能都明显低于非危机时期。这一结果表明,在危机期间,当违约预测最为相关时,需要额外的信息来提高模型性能。此外,在全球金融危机之前,违约的主要预测指标是负债率,而在危机之后,覆盖率已成为最重要的预测指标。
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引用次数: 0
CEO Risk Incentives and Innovation Premium* 首席执行官风险激励与创新溢价 *
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12466
Mookwon Jung, Jung Chul Park

We investigate the relationship between CEO risk incentives and the innovation premium (IP) proposed by Forbes. We suggest that compared to traditional proxies of innovation, the IP is a comprehensive measure of a firm's overall innovation and, therefore, can measure innovation effectiveness in broader industries. We find that both option vega and vega-to-delta ratio, as measures of CEO risk incentives, have a positive relationship with the IP. Additional tests reveal that the traditional patent-related outputs are also motivated by CEO risk incentives, but only in the IT industry. Overall, our findings are consistent with (1) the empirical evidence of Coles et al. (2006, Journal of Financial Economics 79, 431) that a higher vega after controlling for delta motivates managers to implement riskier policy choices and (2) the argument (Dittmann et al. 2017, Review of Finance 21, 1805) that the strength of the risk-taking incentive relative to the performance-based incentive, the vega-to-delta ratio, captures CEO risk-taking incentives more accurately.

我们研究了首席执行官风险激励与福布斯提出的创新溢价(IP)之间的关系。我们认为,与传统的创新代用指标相比,IP 可以全面衡量企业的整体创新能力,因此可以衡量更广泛行业的创新成效。我们发现,作为衡量首席执行官风险激励的指标,期权vega 和vega-to-delta 比率都与知识产权有正相关关系。其他测试表明,与专利相关的传统产出也受到首席执行官风险激励的推动,但只限于信息技术行业。总体而言,我们的研究结果符合:(1)Coles 等人(2006,《金融经济学杂志》,79,431)的经验证据,即在控制了 delta 之后,较高的 vega 会激励管理者执行风险较高的政策选择;(2)Dittmann 等人 2017,《金融评论》,21,1805)的观点,即相对于基于绩效的激励,风险承担激励的强度,即 vega 与 delta 的比率,能更准确地捕捉 CEO 风险承担激励。
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引用次数: 0
Do CEOs Who Are Raising Daughters Reduce Company Risk-taking?* 养育女儿的首席执行官是否会降低公司的风险承担能力?
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-02-09 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12463
Mingming Feng, Xia Wang, Xiaodong Xu, Mengjiao Zhou

Family structure and characteristics are important factors that affect both economic development and CEOs' decision-making. Corporate risk-taking reflects the overall risk choices and preferences of decision-makers in relation to various decisions. Using data for Chinese non-state-owned enterprises between the years 2000 and 2019, we examine the association between CEO offspring gender and corporate risk-taking. We find that CEOs who have daughters are associated with a lower level of corporate risk-taking than CEOs who have sons only. Raising daughters significantly stimulates cautious attitudes and behaviors in CEOs and reduces firm overinvestment, thereby lowering the level of corporate risk-taking. Moreover, raising daughters has a more significant inhibitory effect on corporate risk-taking for female CEOs and CEOs who were born in regions with a strong patriarchal culture. Our findings also show that CEOs with daughters can help companies effectively avoid financial crises. Focusing on both parenting behavior and corporate financial behavior, we suggest that the parent–child relationship extends far beyond the scope of the family, providing a broader perspective for understanding corporate decision-making and financial behavior.

家庭结构和特征是影响经济发展和首席执行官决策的重要因素。企业风险承担反映了决策者对各种决策的总体风险选择和偏好。利用 2000 年至 2019 年中国非国有企业的数据,我们研究了 CEO 后代性别与企业风险承担之间的关系。我们发现,与只有儿子的 CEO 相比,有女儿的 CEO 的企业风险承担水平较低。养育女儿极大地刺激了首席执行官的谨慎态度和行为,减少了公司的过度投资,从而降低了公司的风险承担水平。此外,对于女性首席执行官和出生在父权文化浓厚地区的首席执行官来说,养育女儿对企业风险承担的抑制作用更为明显。我们的研究结果还表明,有女儿的首席执行官可以帮助公司有效避免金融危机。通过对父母行为和企业财务行为的研究,我们认为父母与子女的关系远远超出了家庭的范围,为理解企业决策和财务行为提供了更广阔的视角。
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引用次数: 0
Negative Performance Aspiration Gap and Stock Price Crashes: Based on Behavioral Theory and Agency Theory Perspective* 负绩效期望差距与股价暴跌:基于行为理论和代理理论的观点*
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12462
Mengsha Wang

The paper explores how agency behavior of insiders within a company influences the risk of a stock price crash in the context of a continued expansion of the performance expectation gap. A panel data analysis of 10 727 observations of Chinese A-share listed companies over the period 2003–2020 shows that as the negative performance aspiration gap widens, stock price crashes are more likely to occur. Furthermore, the separated role of top management and chairperson and an increase in the ownership proportion of major shareholders significantly amplifies the positive effect, whereas the increase in managerial shareholding and the equity balance diminish the main relationship.

本文探讨了在业绩预期差距持续扩大的背景下,公司内部人的代理行为如何影响股价暴跌的风险。通过对 2003-2020 年间中国 A 股上市公司的 10 727 个观测值进行面板数据分析发现,随着负面业绩预期差距的扩大,股价暴跌更有可能发生。此外,高层管理者和董事长角色的分离以及大股东持股比例的增加显著放大了正向效应,而管理者持股比例的增加和股权平衡则削弱了主要关系。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Asia-Pacific Journal of Financial Studies
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