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Understanding Corporate Bond Defaults in Korea Using Machine Learning Models* 利用机器学习模型了解韩国的公司债券违约情况*
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12470
Dojoon Park, Jun Kyung Auh, Giwan Song, Young Ho Eom

We investigate corporate bond defaults from 1995 to 2020 using hand-collected data from hard-copy publications in Korea. Using an under-sampling method, we construct default prediction models based on machine learning models as well as a logistic model. The empirical results show that the random forest model outperforms the others. However, regardless of the models used, model performance in financial crisis periods is significantly worse than it is in non-crisis periods. This finding suggests the need for additional information to improve model performance during crises when the default prediction is the most relevant. Furthermore, the dominant predictor of defaults before the global financial crisis was the debt ratio, while subsequently, the coverage ratio has become the most important predictor.

我们利用从韩国硬拷贝出版物中手工收集的数据,调查了 1995 年至 2020 年的公司债券违约情况。我们使用抽样不足法,构建了基于机器学习模型和逻辑模型的违约预测模型。实证结果表明,随机森林模型优于其他模型。然而,无论使用哪种模型,金融危机时期的模型性能都明显低于非危机时期。这一结果表明,在危机期间,当违约预测最为相关时,需要额外的信息来提高模型性能。此外,在全球金融危机之前,违约的主要预测指标是负债率,而在危机之后,覆盖率已成为最重要的预测指标。
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引用次数: 0
CEO Risk Incentives and Innovation Premium* 首席执行官风险激励与创新溢价 *
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12466
Mookwon Jung, Jung Chul Park

We investigate the relationship between CEO risk incentives and the innovation premium (IP) proposed by Forbes. We suggest that compared to traditional proxies of innovation, the IP is a comprehensive measure of a firm's overall innovation and, therefore, can measure innovation effectiveness in broader industries. We find that both option vega and vega-to-delta ratio, as measures of CEO risk incentives, have a positive relationship with the IP. Additional tests reveal that the traditional patent-related outputs are also motivated by CEO risk incentives, but only in the IT industry. Overall, our findings are consistent with (1) the empirical evidence of Coles et al. (2006, Journal of Financial Economics 79, 431) that a higher vega after controlling for delta motivates managers to implement riskier policy choices and (2) the argument (Dittmann et al. 2017, Review of Finance 21, 1805) that the strength of the risk-taking incentive relative to the performance-based incentive, the vega-to-delta ratio, captures CEO risk-taking incentives more accurately.

我们研究了首席执行官风险激励与福布斯提出的创新溢价(IP)之间的关系。我们认为,与传统的创新代用指标相比,IP 可以全面衡量企业的整体创新能力,因此可以衡量更广泛行业的创新成效。我们发现,作为衡量首席执行官风险激励的指标,期权vega 和vega-to-delta 比率都与知识产权有正相关关系。其他测试表明,与专利相关的传统产出也受到首席执行官风险激励的推动,但只限于信息技术行业。总体而言,我们的研究结果符合:(1)Coles 等人(2006,《金融经济学杂志》,79,431)的经验证据,即在控制了 delta 之后,较高的 vega 会激励管理者执行风险较高的政策选择;(2)Dittmann 等人 2017,《金融评论》,21,1805)的观点,即相对于基于绩效的激励,风险承担激励的强度,即 vega 与 delta 的比率,能更准确地捕捉 CEO 风险承担激励。
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引用次数: 0
Do CEOs Who Are Raising Daughters Reduce Company Risk-taking?* 养育女儿的首席执行官是否会降低公司的风险承担能力?
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-02-09 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12463
Mingming Feng, Xia Wang, Xiaodong Xu, Mengjiao Zhou

Family structure and characteristics are important factors that affect both economic development and CEOs' decision-making. Corporate risk-taking reflects the overall risk choices and preferences of decision-makers in relation to various decisions. Using data for Chinese non-state-owned enterprises between the years 2000 and 2019, we examine the association between CEO offspring gender and corporate risk-taking. We find that CEOs who have daughters are associated with a lower level of corporate risk-taking than CEOs who have sons only. Raising daughters significantly stimulates cautious attitudes and behaviors in CEOs and reduces firm overinvestment, thereby lowering the level of corporate risk-taking. Moreover, raising daughters has a more significant inhibitory effect on corporate risk-taking for female CEOs and CEOs who were born in regions with a strong patriarchal culture. Our findings also show that CEOs with daughters can help companies effectively avoid financial crises. Focusing on both parenting behavior and corporate financial behavior, we suggest that the parent–child relationship extends far beyond the scope of the family, providing a broader perspective for understanding corporate decision-making and financial behavior.

家庭结构和特征是影响经济发展和首席执行官决策的重要因素。企业风险承担反映了决策者对各种决策的总体风险选择和偏好。利用 2000 年至 2019 年中国非国有企业的数据,我们研究了 CEO 后代性别与企业风险承担之间的关系。我们发现,与只有儿子的 CEO 相比,有女儿的 CEO 的企业风险承担水平较低。养育女儿极大地刺激了首席执行官的谨慎态度和行为,减少了公司的过度投资,从而降低了公司的风险承担水平。此外,对于女性首席执行官和出生在父权文化浓厚地区的首席执行官来说,养育女儿对企业风险承担的抑制作用更为明显。我们的研究结果还表明,有女儿的首席执行官可以帮助公司有效避免金融危机。通过对父母行为和企业财务行为的研究,我们认为父母与子女的关系远远超出了家庭的范围,为理解企业决策和财务行为提供了更广阔的视角。
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引用次数: 0
Negative Performance Aspiration Gap and Stock Price Crashes: Based on Behavioral Theory and Agency Theory Perspective* 负绩效期望差距与股价暴跌:基于行为理论和代理理论的观点*
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12462
Mengsha Wang

The paper explores how agency behavior of insiders within a company influences the risk of a stock price crash in the context of a continued expansion of the performance expectation gap. A panel data analysis of 10 727 observations of Chinese A-share listed companies over the period 2003–2020 shows that as the negative performance aspiration gap widens, stock price crashes are more likely to occur. Furthermore, the separated role of top management and chairperson and an increase in the ownership proportion of major shareholders significantly amplifies the positive effect, whereas the increase in managerial shareholding and the equity balance diminish the main relationship.

本文探讨了在业绩预期差距持续扩大的背景下,公司内部人的代理行为如何影响股价暴跌的风险。通过对 2003-2020 年间中国 A 股上市公司的 10 727 个观测值进行面板数据分析发现,随着负面业绩预期差距的扩大,股价暴跌更有可能发生。此外,高层管理者和董事长角色的分离以及大股东持股比例的增加显著放大了正向效应,而管理者持股比例的增加和股权平衡则削弱了主要关系。
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引用次数: 0
Controlling Shareholders' Value and Corporate Tax Avoidance* 控制股东价值和公司避税*
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12460
Hyungjin Cho, Jeong-Hoon Hyun, Taejin Jung, Yewon Kim

This paper investigates whether and how controlling shareholders' value (i.e., the concentration of controlling shareholders' wealth within a business group) affects corporate tax planning using Korean chaebols. We find that firms with high controlling shareholders' value engage in a lower level of tax avoidance than other affiliates in the business group. We also find that controlling shareholders' concern about the costs of tax avoidance (i.e., regulatory penalties and reputational damages) are potential mechanisms that prevent firms with high controlling shareholders' value from aggressive tax planning. Lastly, we provide the value implication of tax avoidance for firms with high controlling shareholders' value.

本文以韩国财阀为研究对象,探讨控股股东价值(即控股股东财富在企业集团中的集中度)是否以及如何影响企业税收筹划。我们发现,与企业集团中的其他关联公司相比,控股股东价值高的公司避税水平较低。我们还发现,控股股东对避税成本(即监管处罚和声誉损失)的担忧是阻止控股股东价值高的企业进行激进税收筹划的潜在机制。最后,我们提供了避税对高控股股东价值公司的价值影响。
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引用次数: 0
Does Green Bond Issuance Enhance Market Return of Equity Shares in the Indian Stock Market?* 发行绿色债券是否会提高印度股市中股票的市场回报率?
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-01-30 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12459
Snehith Jacob Kodiyatt, Biju A V Nair, Manna Sarah Jacob, Krishna Reddy

This study examines the announcement effect of a green bond on the issuer's stock returns in the Indian Stock Market. The event study methodology for data analysis and abnormal returns were calculated using the market model for the 16-day event window that includes the 5 days prior and 10 days after the issuance of the green bonds. The findings of this study show that green bond announcements do not create any significant abnormal returns, thus suggesting investors' irrationality toward environmental factors. This study informs policymakers that investor education relating to the environment is needed in India.

本研究探讨了印度股市中绿色债券对发行人股票收益的公告效应。采用事件研究法进行数据分析,并利用市场模型计算了包括绿色债券发行前 5 天和发行后 10 天在内的 16 天事件窗口的异常收益。研究结果表明,绿色债券公告并未产生任何显著的异常回报,这表明投资者对环境因素并不理性。这项研究告诉决策者,印度需要开展与环境有关的投资者教育。
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引用次数: 0
Business Strategy and CEO Compensation: Evidence from the Hospitality and Tourism Industry* 企业战略与 CEO 薪酬:来自酒店和旅游业的证据*
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-01-29 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12461
Hye Seok Kim, Akinloye Akindayomi, Chune Young Chung, Adeduro Adesola Ogunmakin

This study examines the relationship between a hospitality and tourism (HT) firm's business strategy and the level and structure of compensation for its chief executive officer (CEO). Using the ordinary least square (OLS) estimation method, we find that firms in the HT industry that adopt an innovation-oriented business strategy increase their CEOs' total compensation. The increased compensation is not derived from a cash-based component but from an equity-based component of the total CEO compensation. The higher levels of risk exposure that HT firms encounter when adopting an innovation-oriented business strategy motivate these compensation dynamics. Further, HT firms that implement an innovation-oriented business strategy and possess a higher firm value are those that remunerate their CEOs using equity-based compensation. We find no such evidence for cash-based compensation. Therefore, we advocate for a strategy-induced compensation premium in the CEOs' compensation contracting for the HT industry.

本研究探讨了酒店与旅游业(HT)公司的业务战略与其首席执行官(CEO)的薪酬水平和结构之间的关系。通过使用普通最小二乘法(OLS)估算方法,我们发现,采用创新型经营战略的酒店与旅游业公司会提高首席执行官的薪酬总额。增加的薪酬不是来自现金部分,而是来自 CEO 薪酬总额中的股权部分。高温高压企业在采用创新导向型业务战略时面临的风险水平较高,这也是这些薪酬动态变化的动因。此外,那些实施以创新为导向的商业战略并拥有较高公司价值的 HT 公司,也是那些使用股权薪酬来支付 CEO 薪酬的公司。我们没有发现基于现金的薪酬有这样的证据。因此,我们主张 HT 行业首席执行官的薪酬契约中存在战略诱导的薪酬溢价。
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引用次数: 0
Comment Letters and Reporting Quality: Evidence from Financial Restatements* 评论信与报告质量:来自财务重述的证据*
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-09 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12456
Qiuyue Zhang, Guomei Tang, Xiuting Qin

This study investigates the impact of comment letter reviews on reporting quality in terms of financial restatements, using comment letters from the Chinese market between 2013 and 2020. The baseline results indicate that although receiving a comment letter increases the next year's (year t + 1) restatements, it reduces later years' (year t + 2 onwards) restatements. Moreover, this effect is more pronounced among firms with lower external auditor quality, poorer information transparency, and those located in less marketized provinces. The mechanism analyses show that comment letter reviews improve financial reporting quality because of deterrent effects in the form of increased litigation risk.

本研究以2013年至2020年中国市场的评议函为研究对象,从财务重述的角度考察评议函审核对报告质量的影响。基线结果表明,虽然收到评论信增加了下一年(第t + 1年)的重述,但它减少了以后几年(第t + 2年以后)的重述。此外,这种影响在外部审计师质量较低、信息透明度较差以及位于市场化程度较低省份的事务所中更为明显。机制分析表明,评议函审核提高了财务报告质量,其威慑作用表现为诉讼风险的增加。
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引用次数: 0
Control Beyond Ownership: Open-Book Accounting in Unbalanced Supply Chain Networks* 超越所有权的控制:非平衡供应链网络中的开卷会计*
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-08 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12453
Yunxiao Liu, Woojin Kim, Jongsub Lee

Open-book accounting is a practice to disclose the full cost structure of suppliers to customers to achieve cost efficiency in supply chains. However, the dominant market power of customers could interfere with this goal in practice. Using unique data on the suppliers of large Korean business groups, we find that open-book accounting is associated with profit rate regulation by customers. Suppliers' price growth is capped despite the increase in supplied goods. Profit rates of suppliers significantly co-move in times of low average profitability. Using an exogenous regulatory reform that outlawed coercive open-book accounting, we find the tendencies significantly reversed post-reform.

公开账簿会计是向客户披露供应商全部成本结构以实现供应链成本效益的一种做法。然而,在实践中,客户的市场支配力可能会干扰这一目标的实现。利用韩国大型企业集团供应商的独特数据,我们发现开账会计与客户的利润率管制有关。供应商的价格增长受到限制,尽管供应的商品在增加。在平均利润率较低时,供应商的利润率会出现明显的共同变动。利用取缔强制性开簿会计的外生监管改革,我们发现改革后的趋势明显逆转。
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引用次数: 0
Non-Investor Institutions' Site Visits and Corporate Social Responsibility* 非投资机构实地考察和企业社会责任*
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.1111/ajfs.12454
Lewis H.K. Tam, Shaohua Tian

Previous studies show that institutional investors play an important role in shaping corporate social responsibility (CSR). The role of non-investor institutions such as media firms is largely unexplored, especially in China. This study examines the impact of site visits by non-investor institutions on visited firms' CSR ratings (excluding corporate governance (CG)) in China. The baseline result shows that site visits are associated with improved CSR ratings. The result is robust after controlling for potential endogeneity issues. It is also robust with alternative CSR ratings by different data providers. The channel test suggests that non-investor institutions' site visits improve CSR ratings by increasing both CSR disclosure and actual CSR activities. To highlight the difference between our study and recent research on corporate site visits by institutional investors, we perform a further test to show that non-investor institutions' visits improve the non-CG aspect but not the CG aspect of CSR ratings while institutional investors' visits improve the CG aspect but not the non-CG aspect of CSR ratings.

以往的研究表明,机构投资者在企业社会责任(CSR)的形成中起着重要作用。媒体公司等非投资者机构的作用在很大程度上尚未得到探索,尤其是在中国。本研究考察了非投资者机构实地考察对中国企业社会责任评级(不包括公司治理)的影响。基线结果表明,网站访问与提高CSR评级有关。在控制了潜在的内生性问题后,结果是稳健的。它还具有由不同数据提供商提供的备选CSR评级。渠道检验表明,非投资者机构的实地考察通过增加企业社会责任披露和实际企业社会责任活动来提高企业社会责任评级。为了突出我们的研究与最近关于机构投资者企业实地考察的研究之间的差异,我们进行了进一步的测试,表明非投资者机构的访问改善了企业社会责任评级的非CG方面,而不是CG方面,而机构投资者的访问改善了企业社会责任评级的CG方面,而不是非CG方面。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Asia-Pacific Journal of Financial Studies
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