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The Misinterpretation of Productivity Measures 对生产率指标的误解
Pub Date : 2021-01-11 DOI: 10.1080/05775132.2020.1866907
Joaquim Vergés-Jaime
Abstract The author argues that Sufficient attention has not been paid by economists and statisticians to the fact that, given the way productivity indicators at sector and country-level are defined and determined by statistical agencies, the resulting figures—for comparisons among countries, or among sectors within a country, as well as for comparisons over time (“productivity growth”)—do not actually have the assumed meaning: that is, an increase of the index indicates that the country’s (sector’s) companies have become more productive, in the sense of producing more products or services with the same quantities of resources, or producing the same with fewer quantities of resources, etc.
作者认为,经济学家和统计学家没有充分注意到这样一个事实,即考虑到部门和国家一级的生产率指标是由统计机构定义和确定的,由此得出的数字——用于国家之间、一个国家内部部门之间的比较,以及跨时间的比较(“生产率增长”)——实际上并不具有假设的意义:也就是说,指数的增加表明这个国家(部门)的公司的生产力提高了,用同样数量的资源生产更多的产品或服务,或者用更少的资源生产同样的产品或服务,等等。
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引用次数: 0
The New Macroeconomic Matrix and the Great Brazilian Recession 新宏观经济矩阵与巴西大衰退
Pub Date : 2021-01-06 DOI: 10.1080/05775132.2020.1866906
Cleomar Gomes da Silva, A. Fishlow
Abstract The authors investigate the policies adopted by Brazil after the 2008 financial crisis. It was called the New Macroeconomic Matrix (NMM). They to detail the main measures related to NMM; analyze what causes the Great Brazilian Recession was caused by internal factors (NMM actions) or by external factors; and whether the decade that followed was indeed a lost decade for Brazil. We conclude that NMM measures played an important role in the Great Brazilian Recession and that the 2010s can be characterized as a lost decade for the Brazilian economy.
摘要本文研究了2008年金融危机后巴西采取的政策。它被称为新宏观经济矩阵(NMM)。他们详细介绍了与NMM有关的主要措施;分析导致巴西大衰退的原因是由内部因素(NMM行动)还是由外部因素引起的;以及接下来的十年是否真的是巴西失去的十年。我们得出结论,NMM措施在巴西大衰退中发挥了重要作用,2010年代可以被描述为巴西经济失去的十年。
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引用次数: 2
The Free Market Fallacy 自由市场谬论
Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/05775132.2020.1847528
David J. Lyon
Abstract In a variety of surveys, most people believe a free market economy is best. But the assumptions supporting the view are far too simple. A more realistic set of assumptions suggests the need for a variety of regulations.
在各种调查中,大多数人认为自由市场经济是最好的。但支持这一观点的假设过于简单。一组更现实的假设表明,需要各种各样的监管。
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引用次数: 0
National Investment in National Renewal—Three Whys and Three Hows 国家投资与国家振兴——三个为什么和三个如何
Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/05775132.2020.1863553
R. Hockett
Abstract There is one crucial error in America’s national planning, writes the author. It is to think of “national development” as a one-off achievement, rather than as a perpetual process of ongoing renewal. Three obstacles also must be removed. They are how to coordinate the formulation and execution of a regularly updated national development policy, how to capture and incentive-compatibly channel the gains to continuous infrastructural renewal in a mixed public/private economy, and how to control macro-financial conditions in a manner that renders investment in continuous industrial renewal privately rational. We must make three institutional reforms in response: a National Reconstruction and Development Council (NRDC) that combines all cabinet-level executive agencies into “an FSOC for continuous national development,” a National Investment Corporation (NIC) that designs price-signal-impounding and equity-stake-justifying financial instruments in connection with national infrastructure projects, and a “Spread Fed” that restores the Regional Federal Reserve Banks to their original status as a network of regional development banks. Here is the “three-legged stool” on which “Building Back Better—and Beyond” can succeed.
作者写道,美国的国家规划存在一个关键错误。它是将“国家发展”视为一次性的成就,而不是持续更新的永久过程。三个障碍也必须消除。这些问题包括:如何协调定期更新的国家发展政策的制定和执行;如何在公私混合经济中获取和协调地将收益引导到持续的基础设施更新中;以及如何以一种方式控制宏观金融条件,使投资于持续的工业更新成为私人理性。为此,我们必须进行三项体制改革:一个国家重建和发展委员会(NRDC),将所有内阁级的执行机构合并为“一个促进国家持续发展的FSOC”;一个国家投资公司(NIC),设计与国家基础设施项目有关的价格信号冻结和股权合理的金融工具;一个“Spread Fed”,恢复地区联邦储备银行作为地区开发银行网络的原始地位。“重建得更好,做得更好”的“三脚凳”是可以成功的。
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引用次数: 0
The Trump Depression 特朗普大萧条
Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/05775132.2020.1804740
H. Sherman, P. D. Sherman
Abstract The Trump Depression in 2020 resulted from the long run trends in U.S. capitalism toward enormous inequality and resulting lack of consumer demand. Trump added incredible mistakes toward the coronavirus in order to help his political popularity. The resulting depression had the sharpest and deepest trough of any in U.S. history in such a short time.
2020年的特朗普大萧条是由于美国资本主义长期以来的巨大不平等趋势以及由此导致的消费者需求不足造成的。为了提高自己的政治支持率,特朗普在冠状病毒问题上犯了令人难以置信的错误。由此导致的经济萧条在如此短的时间内达到了美国历史上最严重、最深的低谷。
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引用次数: 0
Serious Financial Burdens Facing U.S. Households with Employment Loss During COVID-19 COVID-19期间失业的美国家庭面临严重的经济负担
Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/05775132.2020.1866905
Mary T G Findling, R. Blendon, J. Benson
Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has created widespread disruptions to Americans’ lives, including severe financial impacts among a group of households who are in crisis. This analysis of a recent public opinion poll jointly conducted by Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, National Public Radio, and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation examines serious financial problems facing U.S. households with employment loss during the COVID-19 pandemic, and how problems differ by income. The authors discuss their findings and their implications for the future: (1) about two-thirds of households with employment loss during COVID-19 report facing serious financial problems, including most households earning less than $30,000 in 2019; (2) serious financial problems differ markedly by employment loss and income levels; (3) these problems were reported despite trillions of dollars distributed in aid, signaling additional help is needed; (4) these problems are likely to continue and worsen over time, as more than half of households with employment loss reported using up household savings by August.
2019冠状病毒病大流行给美国人的生活造成了广泛的干扰,包括对一群处于危机中的家庭造成了严重的经济影响。哈佛大学陈曾氏公共卫生学院、全国公共广播电台和罗伯特·伍德·约翰逊基金会最近联合进行的一项民意调查分析了在COVID-19大流行期间失业的美国家庭面临的严重财务问题,以及这些问题如何因收入而异。作者讨论了他们的研究结果及其对未来的影响:(1)在2019冠状病毒病期间失业的家庭中,约有三分之二面临严重的财务问题,包括2019年收入低于3万美元的大多数家庭;(2)严重的财务问题因失业和收入水平的不同而有显著差异;(3)尽管发放了数万亿美元的援助,但这些问题仍被报道,这表明需要额外的帮助;随着时间的推移,这些问题可能会持续下去并恶化,因为超过一半的失业家庭报告说,到8月份,他们的储蓄已经用光了。
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引用次数: 5
Letter From the Editor 编辑来信
Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/05775132.2021.1889860
J. Madrick
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引用次数: 0
Can Machines Create Art? 机器能创造艺术吗?
Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/05775132.2020.1842021
R. Benedikter
Abstract The question: “Can machines create art?” is becoming a “hot” topic in the international art business. While some speculate that there will be a “machine-art” explosion as the trigger for new heights of turnover and profit in this sector, others believe art will never be truly created by machines so that investment will just be into a bubble destined to burst once the initial hype is over. And while the former are convinced that the unprecedented Artificial Intelligence revolution will also open up a new epoch of art that may put an end to the presently known art world, the latter insist that any aspiration to have machines as authors or even “inventors” of art is, in the literal sense, an artificial construct launched by a few who want to reap easy and fast profits. The author weighs the pros and cons in play.*
“机器能创造艺术吗?”,正在成为国际艺术品行业的“热门”话题。一些人推测,“机器艺术”的爆发将触发该领域营业额和利润的新高,而另一些人则认为,艺术永远不会真正由机器创造出来,因此,一旦最初的炒作结束,投资就会进入一个注定要破裂的泡沫。前者相信,前所未有的人工智能革命也将开启一个新的艺术时代,可能会终结目前已知的艺术世界,而后者坚持认为,任何让机器成为艺术作者甚至“发明家”的愿望,从字面意义上讲,都是少数人想要轻松快速获利的人为构建。作者权衡了利弊
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引用次数: 2
The Actual U.S. Unemployment Rate in 2019 Was Twice the Official Rate, and the Phillips Curve 2019年美国实际失业率是官方失业率和菲利普斯曲线的两倍
Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/05775132.2020.1863547
J. Komlos
Abstract The official U.S. unemployment rate is an inadequate measure of labor market conditions. This poses a major challenge for basic research and for successful economic policy. In this piece, the author proposes a new definition of unemployment is proposed. It considers those part-time workers who would like to work full time as 62.7% employed and 37.3% unemployed inasmuch as this is the proportion of time they work relative to full-time workers. New monthly estimates of the unemployment rate are calculated for the period 1994–2019 and find that their average during this 25-year period was 10.7% or 5.0 percentage points above the official rate of 5.7%.
美国官方失业率是衡量劳动力市场状况的一个不充分指标。这对基础研究和成功的经济政策构成了重大挑战。在这篇文章中,作者提出了失业的新定义。它认为那些想要全职工作的兼职工人为62.7%的就业和37.3%的失业,因为这是他们相对于全职工人工作的时间比例。对1994-2019年期间的失业率进行了新的月度估算,发现这25年期间的平均失业率为10.7%,比官方失业率5.7%高出5.0个百分点。
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引用次数: 8
Letter from the Editor 编辑来信
Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.1080/05775132.2020.1848834
J. Madrick
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引用次数: 0
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Challenge (Atlanta, Ga.)
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